Will we see pilot employment at the same levels again?

[AllInGoodTime]

Hi

Do any of the more experienced indusrty people reading this thread think we will see the huge demand for pilots that we had in the last few years again. Will companies like REX and Qantaslink take on pilots with 700 - 800 hrs again, or do you think those days are now behind us for the foreseeable future. Has that Golden window of opportunity shut for the time being?? I hope not, but any guesses? I get a little scared that they say the global economy will actually keep getting worse over the 12 months, hope this is incorrect.

[bill.lumbergh]

To be brutally honest it'll be yeears before we see the majors recruit like that again. Optimistically it'll take a year or so before we see a recovery getting any sort of momentum then they'll probably grow at the long term average for a while.

Look at it from a financial perspective (because $$$ drives everything). FY06 PBT was $671m, FY07 PBT was $1b, FY08 it was $1.4b, (pretty decent growth rate right?) guidance for FY09 is "around $500m subject to no significant changes in the market" (and that's a bit optimistic) and that's mostly from QFF and J*, not mainline.

In terms of pilot recruitment once they start hiring regularly again (which will hopefully be during 2010) it'll be at normal levels. If we make it back to the crazy levels you're referring to it won't be for a few years after that.
Last growth period for QF was 5 years before they started taking pilots at the level you're talking about and the down turn wasn't anywhere as sever as this one. I do think the pilot shortage will hit quicker once they start expanding again but at the same time profitability (therefore growth) is starting from a lower base so it'll take longer to recover.

[300Series]

It will happen AllInGoodTime :)

300

[Grogmonster]

Yes we will see a return to previous levels. All of these economic events are cyclic in nature. The only question that no person can answer with certainty is how long it will take. I do think that for aspiring airline pilots it won't take long at all because before the bust the demand was greater than the supply by a long shot. Hang in there.

Groggy

[Cloud Basher]

Well actually I have a different take on it. I don't believe we will see those level of pilot recruitment again in our lifetimes. The only reason it happened was what has now been shown to articifial growth in the stockmarkets of the world, in Australia we had the resources boom at the same time and we also had a so called "shortage" of pilots (which I still stick by my premis that it was only a shortage of people who met the inflated minimums of many Australian companies). Essentially it was many many factors which superposed upon each other and created an artificial demand for pilots.

Now we have returned to sanity the level of demand now is about the same as it always was (maybe a little less?) but new guys coming in might just have to do the hard yards in GA and get 2500+TT and 1000+ ME again rather than getting fast tracked to the airlines and being picked up with 500+TT.

So to summarise, no we will not see it again in our lifetimes and once again, only those really really keen will get to the jobs after doing their apprenticeship in the dusty outback.

Anyway thats just my two cents, and I was wrong once...

Edited to add, apologies for the spelling, one to many JD's right at the moment!

[Charliethewonderdog]

2 words

India

China



We have not seen the last of the Pilot shortage. The next one will be just as strong.... in about 3 years.

[apache]

don't forget that there is still a "lot of grey" at the top of most seniority lists. These "more experienced" chaps are all due to retire in a few years, and maybe hanging on till better economic times.... which, I agree won't be TOO far away.(late 2010 would be my guess)

[wessex19]

I agree with apache, alot of the old school would be happy to walk away from the game but with their pot of cash in super heading south, they are sticking it out till they have recouped the money and the arrow heads north

[Horatio Leafblower]

I'd be fascinated to see a graph showing the age distribution you guys are talking about.

It's not that I doubt you - I'd just like to see it.

I suspect the airline management have worked all this out for themselves too, which is why you see them falling over each other to establish bases in NZ :(

When the power level gets pushed forward in HR again, the cost of "fuel" will be much lower than it is today.

I notice the TWU got plenty of media attention today, engaging in industrial action over 100 Jetstar jobs being contracted out.

Since there are more than 100 pilot jobs moving offshore, and the loss of earnings to their members will be greater than that suffered by the TWU members in question, I suppose the AFAP will be taking similar action?

... surely? :confused:

[apache]

If the AFAP took ANY action, EVER, over ANYTHING.. then i would be surprised .... pleasantly.

[bill.lumbergh]

I agree with apache, alot of the old school would be happy to walk away from the game but with their pot of cash in super heading south, they are sticking it out till they have recouped the money and the arrow heads north

Don't forget most pilots at Qantas have a guaranteed pension that's not tied to stock market performance. *That's why QAN has some looming cash flow issues*. What may affect pilots retirement fund is other investments, but not super for most QAN pilots. This is different for VBA though.

[Andy_RR]

After the last Great Depression, pilot recruitment rates went through the roof, but for entirely different reasons...

[bill.lumbergh]

Ha! Shame they don't make aeroplanes out of pots and pans anymore.

[apache]

yeah... now they make pots and pans out of old aircraft!

[AllInGoodTime]

Do you think it will take 2000+ and 500M/E to get a Regional gig in the future once the recovery occurs?

If so God knows what sort of hours are going to be needed to get into the Majors??

I wonder if that perfect storm will ever come back, lots of Jobs, not enough pilots and plenty of retirements of the horizon.

[bill.lumbergh]

I sure hope so.

[tinpis]

No.
Push button robots required.
Fillipinna are fine for the job
Relax, get wasted, check Centerlink, you voted KRudd? Go surf.

[Torres]

Ah, Tinnie, dontcha just love these young financial academics? :}

If they can't get a flying job they are guaranteed a Government financial advisor position with KRudd747! :ok:

How many "ups and downs" of the pilot job yo-yo and prophets of doom have you seen over the last 40 years? :E

Based on current aircraft orders, even with a few cancellations, there are flying jobs out there - go look! :ok:

[Centaurus]

not enough pilots and plenty of retirements of the horizon.

I hate to disillusion you,but you are forgetting there is no mandatory pilot retiring age for pilots in Australia - nor New Zealand I believe. Pre 1989 the AFAP and the airlines colluded to chuck pilots out at age 60. In other words there never was a mandatory retirement age for pilots as far as the regulator was concerned. Once that artificial age barrier was knocked over after the 1989 strike, pilots were able to keep working until they chose - assuming medicals and proficiency checks were OK. So don't hold your breath waiting for pilots to throw in the towel and go back to driving a taxi. Plenty of "retirements on the horizon" - maybe in countries who stick to age limits from 55 to 65. Not in Australia though.

[YoDawg]

My theory is the good times will return better than before, and for the following reasons:


Due to the current ongoing financial woes, less people have the money or the credit to spend it as at a flying school training, for a job that is more scarce than ever.

The conditions at the moment will not be attracting new pilots as they used to, either.

Airline cadet training will begin to drop off due to demand. In fact this has already begin at some euro-airlines. These three factors will have a large impact on the junior end of the pilot career stream, in GA, regionals and the majors.

At the top end of the stream, the silverbacks will continue to reach resignation age whilst the above takes place.

So the stream will be eaten away at both ends.

Meanwhile, the downturn will eventually turn around, as they always do, and when it does, there will be more people than before populating the world and wanting to be flown from A to B.

At the same time, there will be less (numerically and proportionally) experienced pilots in the world.

Result: Happy Days.

The longer the downturn goes on, the bigger the deficit in pilot numbers will be when it ends, at least according to my theory.

What can ruin it for us longer-term is war. Iran, Pakistan, China.... take your pic!

[Aussie]

I hope ya right mate, in my airline alone, there expecting 8% of the pilot force to retire in the year 2011 alone....

[PlankBlender]

Yup, Centaurus, I'm with Aussie and YoDawg here, you're neglecting to consider the important of size :} ...of the aviations markets in the world. Oz of course is a relatively small market with something like 4% of global aviation. So what happens in Oz only matters to a degree for the pilot shortage, because as soon as the EU/US retirement numbers kick in, there'll be a recruitment pull from those areas, and among others Aussies won't be able to withstand the pull of the money and leave, with the obvious consequences for our little gem of an aviation market here :}

If anyone can furnish actual numbers for pilots ages in the big markets in the world, that would be fab :ok:

[KRUSTY 34]

YoDawg.

100% correct IMHO. The big question of course, will be when? Methinks many an airline manager will be asking the same question, but if past performances are anything to go by, watch them scream big time when they get caught out again.

Gold!

[Wildduke]

I agree with Plankbender in that the movement within the Aussie industry has been dependant on the recriutment of expatriate pilots in international markets. Big recruitment drives from the likes of Emirates, Qatar Airways, etc, as well as recruitment of expereinced captains to a whole host of other Asian carriers, has opened up holes within the system for those left on this island, to move up thorugh the ranks. However, with international carriers accross the board, pusing the advancement of their local cadet programs, it has already started that countries are not hiring expatriate F/O's anymore. Once all those MPL local cadets get themselves enough hours to be promoted to Captain the need for expatriate Captains will also fall; thus furthur slowing down the progression in our own country. Unless there is HUGE growth in the Australian industry, which seems unlikely unless we dramatically grow our population, I personnally dont think we will ever see the recruiting levels reach as high as it did at the beginning of last year.

As far as student pilot numbers is concerned, when a kid is in year 12 and thinking about what he or she wants to do with their life, those that choose to head to flying schools will not be considering future pay prospects, or employer T&C's. I believe flying schools will still be busy and there will eventually be a surplus of qualified pilots again.

[Torres]

Centaurus. Your reasoning defies all reason and logic!! :confused:

"Pre 1989 the AFAP and the airlines colluded to chuck pilots out at age 60."

Where did that gem come from? If my memory serves me correctly, DCA mandated the 60 retirement age limit until abolished as a result of a test discrimination case in the Industrial Relations Commission probably two decades ago?

The oldest airline pilot in Australia recently retired at 72 years of age. I would suggest the average pilot retirement age probably moved from 60 to around 65 one to two decades ago. Surely you don't begrudge pilots having the same career duration as the rest of Australia's workers?

The number of projected airline pilot retirements over the next year or so is higher than ever - and will probably increase as a result of this years Budget.

Pilot opportunities exist for those that are qualified and go looking for them.

[Howard Hughes]

2000/2001 was big until 911/Ansett!
2007/2008 was bigger until the GFC!
2012/2013 will be like nothing we have ever seen before!:ok:

PS: People have been talking about the imminent retirement of large numbers of pilots for years, but quite frankly it has never really happened to any large extent. It is the emergence of seemingly infinite markets like China and India where the growth will come, the US will remain an 'insular' market much like Australia, as it always has been.

[Centaurus]

If my memory serves me correctly, DCA mandated the 60 retirement age limit until abolished as a result of a test discrimination case in the Industrial Relations Commission probably two decades ago?


I could be wrong (happens too many times!) but I don't recall ever seeing an Australian regulation CAR/CAO that mandated a retiring age for airline pilots.
The test discrimination case I think was brought up by a Qantas pilot forced out by the union and company - not DCA. It may have been Les Morris who later lost his life in a Seminole accident. Again, this is a recollection from talking to Les many years ago.

[Aerodynamisist]

The last shortage was driven by airline expansion. Jet star, Tiger, VB all came into the market with shiny new aircraft and sucked all the experienced guys out of the regionals and GA. That type of boom may not happen again for a while, what may cause shortages in the future will be the lack of trained Australian nationals coming up through the ranks due to the high price of training. Mean while existing rpt pilots will continue to retire or move to Hong Kong, Dubai and Europe.

[KRUSTY 34]

The high cost of training is a factor, but it's always been expensive. We now have the end result of years of reduction in pilots terms and conditions, and a community acceptance of flying as something not out of the ordinary (price of sucess?), and as a result an overall lowering of the status of professional pilot!

All these factors combined have seriously reduced the attractiveness of the profesion. When substantial recruitment begins again, many aviation businesses, including airlines, simply will not survive!:{

[Gearupandorrf]

Hey guys,

As a 35 year old who was a late starter but a few weeks away from finishing the CPL, I'd be more than interested in hearing your thoughts in terms of the Oz Aviation industry reverting back to the days when:

1. If you weren't in an Airline by 30, it was never going to happen due to age.

2. It was bloody hard finding an Employer who DID pay the Award.

3. Flight Instructors earning a pittance because they only got paid for actual hours flown even though they could be hanging around all week.

I've got a lot personally riding on the fact that we won't see those days again- if we do then I will be effectively "priced" out of this profession with an inability to financially survive. Additionally, I got to make a decision soon in regards to doing the Instructor V's Instrument Rating.

What are your thoughts on the above guys??

I do agree with the fact that there has been a massive decline in the number of Australian students training for CPL's. At Moorabbin at least, if the Indian and Chinese students stopped coming half the Schools on the Field would be in dire straits.

Look forward to you thoughts,
Cheers,
Gearup.:ok:

[krankin]

1. If you weren't in an Airline by 30, it was never going to happen due to age.

Christ i hope thats not the case now!!!! :eek:

I would think there is a few with me too!!!:sad:

[DUXNUTZ]

Gearup,

When times were tough many things you said were true and i believe we are at that level again,

- Companies will always seek the cheapest labour and some entry level charter jobs will again be below (if they aren't already) the award.

- Instructor jobs have recently contracted. Many people used to wait around for a GIII instructor gig. I see this happening again.

- Qantas and many majors utilise the "Age commensurate with experience" card. This may be a factor in getting an interview or may rear its head at the interview. I think age isn't so much a factor in anything as long as you have flexible career paths and may be willing to accept a career job at a regional. By and large you will have many skills and experience that can be argued to be beneficial to a company.


My advise to you from someone who has worked hard, definitely not made it yet but is happily burning kero in a GA working man's turboprop is to keep plodding along and consistantly set achievable goals.

Put your energy towards the CPL. Figure out if you want to instruct, can put energy into that, and if not then go the charter route.

[KRUSTY 34]

Mate, back when I was doing my CPL in the mid 80's, if you weren't in a major airline by 25 you were sc@wed!

Swings and roundabouts. We've seen some mighty high swings, and some pretty fast roundabout in recent times. So predicting whether you are too old at this point in time is akin to asking "how long is a piece of string?"

All I can say Gearupandorrf, is that if you want it badly enough then you will find a way. The fact that you are only now completeing your CPL at age 35 may indicate a lack of resolve in earlier life. I know that I certainly lacked the determination untill I had reached 25 or so. I don't know your personal circumstances, so please forgive me if I offend. The main thing however is that given your age it is quite probable that significant financial, and possibly personal sacrifices will have to be made.

Whether or not you are prepared to make these sacrifices at this time in your life, will ultimately determine your future level of sucess.

Best of luck

Krusty.

[Mr. Hat]

Gearup, I'm not sure of your personal circumstances but in my opinion you have already made the decision by completing the CPL. You have made the investment you must now stay focused on your goal. Do not let doom and gloom stories put you off. The industry is full of people and scary stories that will try to unnerve you. I've seen people get caught up in the moment and give it away for no good reason.

Be patient work hard stay focused.

As for rating - in your shoes i'd do the MECIR as you will have to do it anyway. Ideally you would get a job with a CPL in a company that has IFR twins and claim it on tax. Another advantage of doing it after you have a job is that you will have a bit more brain space to absorb it all. When i went thru i just wanted to pass and go home! Had i done it with a 1000 hours I'd have learned more.

Good luck.

[Centaurus]

As for rating - in your shoes i'd do the MECIR

Sound advice indeed. For example, military trained student pilots are not awarded the pilot's brevet ("Wings") until they have an instrument rating. There are obvious reasons for this.

The skies are not always sunny as many non-instrument rated pilots have found to their eternal cost. It has always puzzled me that some non-instrument rated flying instructors can legally train GFPT, private and CPL students on instrument flying, without the instructors ever having flown in cloud themselves. The blind leading the blind?

[Howard Hughes]

Will we see the following scenarios again????
1) I have known people up to 54 who have gotten their first jet F/O slot and think this will continue when recruitment starts again. I think the whole 'under 30' was an Ansett thing and is long gone!

2) I have been paid the award (or above) at every employer where I have worked, in my opinion it is the award which is the problem (way too bloody low!).:eek:

3) If you work there is a minimum number of hours that you are required to be paid!

[oneday_soon]

Only a guess, but I reckon it will be one way or the other for a long time.

1. Back to the days of needing 2500+ for a position with the Regional Airlines.

or

2. Like Howard Hughes said, nothing like we have ever seen before.

Don't think there will be a lot of middle ground. Closed shop for a long time or the demand that we started to see the last couple of years will just massively increase.

Let's hope it is number 2.

[AllInGoodTime]

I see jobs being advertised on the afap website still, and also instructing job adverts about aswell. Maybe if there is still a slight stream of pilot emplyment continuing now, there really will be significant demand once the economy turns around.

[Mr. Hat]

I don't think it will be as hard as it used to be but once J* and VB have got the aircraft they have on order I think that will be it for a looong time.

The industry just won't/doesn't attract as many as it used to. Its gradually working its way to the US of A where it pays less to be a pilot than pretty much anything!

[SystemsAreGo]

I see jobs being advertised on the afap website still, and also instructing job adverts about aswell. Maybe if there is still a slight stream of pilot emplyment continuing now, there really will be significant demand once the economy turns around.

'Slight stream' would be an exaggeration. There is very little movement anywhere. Employers who advertise on AFAP will be receiving hundreds of CVs and will have the luxury of selecting from a pool of highly qualified candidates. I suspect that experienced instructors are the only exception.

Might go bricklaying for a year :}

[training wheels]

Might go bricklaying for a year :}

.. and earn a lot more as well! ;)

[Mr. Hat]

.............................much more

[YoDawg]

military trained student pilots are not awarded the pilot's brevet ("Wings") until they have an instrument rating. There are obvious reasons for this.

Military pilots are, indeed, awarded the pilot's flying badge prior to gaining an instrument rating. RAAF and RAN pilots gain the IFR prior to wings but AAAvn pilots are awarded the flying badge before OTTC and ROBC - ie type conversion.