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Le Pen
11th May 2008, 08:12
From The Times (on-line) 10 May 2008.

Here (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article3904546.ece)

From The Times 10 May 2008

Safety fears as staff shortage hits aviation.

A chronic shortage of airline pilots, engineers and air traffic controllers is grounding flights and stoking safety concerns around the world.

Airlines, already buffeted by record-high oil prices, are cutting routes and even flying around badly affected countries in the wake of a skills crunch. A spokesman for the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the industry body, said that a dearth of trained staff was becoming “a serious global issue ... as aviation becomes a low-cost industry”.

The problem is hitting the fastest-growing markets the hardest. In India, where the middle class has embraced flying and passenger volumes surged by 30 per cent last year, airlines cannot recruit enough pilots. This week Air India, the national carrier, was forced to scrap a route to London for want of crew.

Meanwhile, shortages of technical personnel have affected countries ranging from Israel, where a government committee recently found that aviation safety was in dire straits, to the Republic of Ireland, where air traffic controllers threatened to strike this year, claiming that they could not deal with a significant increase in the number of flights.

The problems come after years of cost cuts. The IATA estimates that airlines have increased their labour productivity by two thirds since 2001 by reducing capacity. There are also suggestions that the sharp drop in pilots' earnings after the terror attacks of September 11, 2001 - the highest salaries have fallen by a third, to about £100,000 - has turned would-be cockpit crew members off the industry at a time when global air traffic is growing by 6 per cent a year.

Existing talent is migrating to the most lucrative markets. In Africa, which American officials has suggested is suffering “an exodus” of aircraft engineers, air travel is six times more lethal than in Europe, according to the IATA.

A British Airways spokesman said that the airline had not encountered problems hiring pilots so far because of its status as “an aspirational carrier that pays very competitively”. However, he added that BA was aware of what he called a larger issue surrounding a finite resource.

Time lags in training are coming into play, carriers say. Air India pulled its service from Calcutta to London because of a shortage of Boeing 777 commanders, who need to accumulate flying hours over three to four years before they are qualified.

Flights between Delhi, Bombay, Chicago and New York will also be affected. A spokesman said: “We have tapped all resources, retrained staff and brought in ex-pat pilots where the markets permit, but still we have shortages.”

It is estimated that more than two new pilots a day are needed to keep up with demand on the sub-continent, but there are also concerns for the state of the aircraft they will fly. A recent report found that half the positions in some government-run offices responsible for aviation safety checks in India were unfilled.

The highly trained staff that direct the passage of aircraft from the ground are also in short supply. The International Federation of Air Traffic Controllers estimates a shortage of 3,000 controllers, although many staff already work significant overtime and claim that the true figure could be higher.

There have been reports of aircraft being directed to fly around countries such as Poland because there were too few controllers on duty to ensure their safe passage.

A wing and a prayer

— Worldwide demand for new commercial pilots is running at 18,000 a year

— Maximum global training capacity for commercial pilots is 15,000 a year

— India requires 5,000 new pilots annually

— Global passenger numbers are growing at 6 per cent a year

— In the fastest-growing countries, such as India, passenger numbers grew by 30 per cent last year

— Air India has begun to recruit from the Indian Air Force to help to make up a pilot shortfall

— Suggested remedies include increasing the retirement age for commercial pilots to 65

Source: IATA

fireflybob
11th May 2008, 08:17
Yes - a serious safety issue I am sure.

As a pilot - yippee!!

Blacksheep
11th May 2008, 08:21
High oil prices will correct excess demand for air travel and, as always with unbalanced markets, the air travel market will balance out at a new equilibrium.

bekolblockage
11th May 2008, 08:53
Somebody better tell that to the cashed-up 2.3 billion Chinese and Indians, coz it hasn't had much effect on the growth in this region so far!

Le Pen
11th May 2008, 10:57
A British Airways spokesman said that the airline had not encountered problems hiring pilots so far because of its status as “an aspirational carrier that pays very competitively”.

I would be interested to hear what BA said about hiring, retaining and training of Engineers. I'm not sure its considered as an "aspirational" carrier by engineers.

Also, are there figures relating to the number of aircraft in service in the UK and numbers of pilots and engineers over, say, the last 10 years?

Have to admit that when I first read this my feelings were largely shallow...

However having had time to reflect, I guess this could be a huge problem.

I guess that time will tell.

LP

Sleeve Wing
11th May 2008, 12:48
Had to happen, didn't it ?

Ts & Cs, duty hours, rest periods and general consideration have been hammered so much in the last twenty years that the bright guys and gals who might have come into the industry realise that its not the job that its trumped up to be.
Much more money in real IT. They can then afford to fulfil their flying dreams by buying their own aeroplane !

'Chickens', and 'roosting', and 'home' spring to mind.................................

Give it a couple of years guys and gals.

:ouch: :ok:

Huck
11th May 2008, 13:40
(cough cough "Free Market" cough cough)

Just for fun I ran my father's 1992 yearly wage through an inflation calculator.

Back then he was a 747-200 captain for NWA, and earned the modern-day equivalent of $340,000 a year.

You pay peanuts, you get monkeys.....

HEATHROW DIRECTOR
11th May 2008, 14:08
Some people - UK Air Traffic Controllers most definitely - might... just might consider $340,000 per year to be rather a large sum of money. On my pension it's more than I'll earn in the rest of my life. If that's what they pay monkeys, I can walk on all fours and eat bananas.... Some people are just not on the same planet.

Huck
11th May 2008, 15:24
M'kay, let's review.

340 is what they paid then.

Now it's more like 180. With 70-80 for the first officers.

The peanuts/monkeys comment was about today's airlines. But whatever.

411A
11th May 2008, 16:01
The wages paid at some airlines for pilots, in 1992, could well be viewed as excessive...for the specific time.

Todays rates?
More in line with reality.

eastern wiseguy
11th May 2008, 16:02
HD......keep up!!:)

Wizofoz
11th May 2008, 16:08
Todays rates?
More in line with reality.

Rates need to be such that they are sufficient to attract and retain enough suitable people into the industry.

They currently aren't.

Finn47
11th May 2008, 16:41
Here´s a good example of what can happen when a regional airline doesn´t pay it´s pilots good enough wages and therefore must employ inexperienced people: a serious incident report by the Finnish AAIB. The captain had 50 hours (!) and the copilot some 80 hours on ATRs (and a whopping total of 365 flight hrs!). They tried to shoot an NDB approach at Seinajoki airport Jan 2007 but forgot to change the altimeter setting, which meant that the plane was flying 950 ft too low. This resulted in 3 EGPWS warnings and go-arounds, one stick pusher warning, one excessive bank angle warning and one configuration warning - and finally, a diversion. The co-pilot had actually NEVER flown an NDB approach at Seinajoki before. Lucky to be alive, poor bastards...

Read all about it, in English here:

http://www.onnettomuustutkinta.fi/43213.htm

Two's in
11th May 2008, 17:46
with smaller planes (707), on shorter distances, with 3 or 4 engines, carrying less passengers, more calmly, pax did not carry-on all their luggage, with flight engineer, and everthing was good.

"good" being a relative term of course. Extra engines don't really count if they have a propensity to throw turbine sections or blow the cans out through the cowling every other flight, shorter distances would be a good thing with navigation aids that were more of an art than a science (no GPS in those halcyon days), not knowing where the red bits were in the weather fronts certainly added a sense of adventure to flying, and said flight engineer working like a one legged man in an arse-kicking contest trying to balance fuel, Nh, and all the electrical loads that our friend Mr Software does so well these days. But despite all that, at least pilots were employed for their Airmanship skills, and not their accountancy, value propositions and investors in people knowledge.

Willie Wash
11th May 2008, 17:54
You don't have to worry about standards or shortage of 'skilled' personnel to work the aircraft. The powers that be have plans afoot to recruit many many 'mechanics' to fill the shortage of labour.

Don't worry guys and gals, the epitaph still reads 'SAFETY FIRST'. Should be ok as long as the managers read that every morning as they arive for work.

Laugh? I nearly fell of my monkey bars.

BusyB
11th May 2008, 18:27
Looking forward to the 2-engine A380:}

pilotbear
11th May 2008, 19:20
having a flight engineer didn't help Concorde, shut down eng 3 without being asked and committed it to a crash....

411A
11th May 2008, 19:46
...with smaller planes (707), on shorter distances,

Well, I don't know about that, having personally done 12 hours in said 707....quite a few times.

Pilots in those days knew how to fly not just push a multitude of buttons.:}
Of course, younger pilots now might say...'well yeah, but those older airplanes crashed more often.'

Not with yours truly in Command, they didn't.:E

Perhaps it's now time to be seriously considering age 70 for retirement, for those (certainly) more experienced Captains, thereby greatly increasing safety.

Dani
11th May 2008, 19:56
Lack of pilots is a time of the past, there will soon be surplus pilots on the market, at least in the western world. Only booming developing countries in Asia are still desperate, but of course nobody wants to fly there, at least not for the present working condition.

Interesting though that The Times already gets the story, after we had that problem for half a decade now ;)
BA as well as AF are desperatly looking for new pilots now, look at the big adverts in Flight these days. I wonder if those who are selected now will employed in a year or two...

Dani

CaptainProp
11th May 2008, 20:14
And the Indian CAA just "banned" non-indian FOs from working in India. Go figure. :E

Sunfish
11th May 2008, 20:51
(Sigh) These "shortage' stories pop up in all countries, in all sorts of industries, for all sorts of trades and professions.

As a general rule, the whingers are wrong. There is no shortage, but there is a shortage of people willing to work at the low rates that the oxygen thieves want to pay them.

haughtney1
11th May 2008, 22:15
Follow the money...........

The sandpit will swallow up the overflow....particularly at $126 a barrel (when it costs about $11 a barrel to pump):ok:

beachbumflyer
11th May 2008, 22:17
¿And how much money are airline executives making now?
A lot more than 20 or 30 years ago.(adjusted for inflation, I mean)

piratepete
12th May 2008, 00:12
411A, I would love to sneak up behind you at a bar and listen in while you tell your tales of superhuman feats as an airline captain.Also I have never seen a dinosaur for real and would love that too.You are a truly amazing pilot.No need for CRM, GPS or even other crew members.Oh and you find it impossible to crash as well.................truly amazing.

411A
12th May 2008, 00:46
411A, I would love to sneak up behind you at a bar and listen in while you tell your tales....
Pete, you would be welcome anytime...who knows, you might even learn something in the process.:}

RetroFire
12th May 2008, 02:46
As a US Domestic airline pilot, I do find it fustrating that in a time when the airline safety record has never been better, working conditions and pay have never been worse.:ugh:

Except for the senior VP level and up.:mad:

Suffice it to say that the era of mass transit in the air has certianly come, and hopefully will soon leave, as fuel prices will no longer allow this sort of foolishness.:=

There's no shortage of experienced, available pilots over here in the States, as so many have quit out of disgust and gone on to other fields,:( or (for those who prepared), retired early.:D

Soon we will have massive reductions in capacity and associated furloughs, further adding to the supply.:eek:

One sure sign of the silliness were the banks who were willing to loan the aspiring twenty-something pilots loans around $100,000 USD to train for jobs that started at $20,000/anum flying regional jets.:= Now many of the twenty-somethings have decided that paying back their loan is too much of a chore, so they are defaulting.:ugh:

Serves both sides right!:eek:

BYALPHAINDIA
12th May 2008, 11:06
DTV closed for 30 min on Sat Eve due to staff shortage.

jetsreams
12th May 2008, 11:39
Air India has the dubious distinction of being the only Indian carrier with almost 73 experienced senior First Officers with ATPLs,many thousands of hours of total time and almost ten years of service ,who are not even being considered for Command training due to vested personal interests in the airline.

It appears that the airline prefers expats ( many of whom work as a cartel hired by various recruitment agencies) to upgrading its own Indian co pilots - despite the fact that many of the expats are allowed upto 108 days off every year apart from the mandatory Time Off , a luxury denied to the Indians.

This automatically raises the question: What goes on between these recruitment agencies and those who ink such deals?

Another issue that defies logic is that the Indian DGCA only holds ATPL written exams 4 times a year

Clearly, there are people in India- both in the Government and airline management , who see a lot more to the pilot shortage than meets the eye !

Gandhi Was Bandy
12th May 2008, 12:25
Or here's a crazy idea. Maybe, just maybe Air India think these guys aren't good enough to hold a command? Just because they hold an ATPL does not mean they are capable. If you want an insight into the standard of some newly qualified Indian pilots look here, post #147 http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?t=307599&page=8

Pilot factory products who pay their way through to a licence are a menace in ANY part of the world and from first hand knowledge I can tell you there are heaps of them in India.

Huck
12th May 2008, 12:39
Ex-pat quotas have been written into bilateral aviation treaties in the past.....