All this talk of loans...why?

[SparksFlyHigh]

Im just wondering why everyone seems to WANT to get a loan to start training?

Im 18, working 50 hour weeks driving FLT's for £24k a year give or take. Now, the way i see it is, shove £12k in the bank for 4 years and then i have myself a fATPL. I could go to HSBC tomorrow and borrow some huge ammount of money against my parents house but then i will have to pay it off for the next...25 years? The interest is HUGE on that ammount.

I dont really know whether i am having a little rant here, or i am just very confused or misunderstanding something, so i would like your opinions on MY 'plan' of working for the next 4 years instead of working 8 years later in life to pay the interest alone off.

[hollingworthp]

It's not a bad plan by any stretch - but don't forget that Mr Brown likes to dip his chubby fingered hands into your pay packet every month and unless you are really committed, you won't want to be living on pot noodles and staying in every night for 4 years. However, I also managed to fund my training without a bank loan or equity withdrawal and it saved me a few sleepless nights :zzz:

Good luck to you. :ok:

[Wilton Shagpile]

You're fortunate enough that you're 18.....an extra 4 years probably won't make a difference to you but to some people it can be a significant percentage of what is left of their career.

Also if you borrow the money and get into the job market earlier you will be four years further up the seniority list which might be helpful if it all hits the fan.

Still, with recession looming then maybe waiting 4 years might be a good idea right now..

[jb2_86_uk]

If only it was that simple sparks!

I really cant see how youd get by, saving 12k a year. Roughly speaking from your 24k salary, you will see about 18k. Over the course of the year you will slap 12k into the bank and you have got 6k to live off for a year. That would barely cover rent/mortgage - nevermind bills, food, luxuries, social fund etc

If you are still living at home, then thats great as I expect any board you pay is waaaay less than renting your own place. But then you might want (or even have) a car and let me tell you, they cost an arm and a leg - really caught myself out with that one!!!

Living at home, without your own car - I think you could manage it - but would you want to live like that for four straight years?

As for the loan repayments, there is a fixed repayment plan over 9 years commencing a year after you finish training - (With HSBC). So you finish training May 08, by May 2018 your loan should be gone!!!

In the end its up to you and whether you want to bite the bullet and get on with it, or work hard and pay for it outright further down the line. I know which option I would choose - and in fact what option I chose!:cool:

All the best mate with whatever you do! :ok:

JB

[Adios]

Living at home without a car for four years as an 18 YO is nothing compared to living at home without a car for four years as a 20 YO with an fATPL and £50K debt with no job while watching currency fade away. His numbers may not be realistic, but the approach is to be applauded.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Too right Adios.


I've given this advice many times over the years. If all you want to do is fly then forget University with its £3k a year fee plus living expenses. Get some good A-levels to show you're not thick then get a job - in fact get two. Stay at home, stuff the money in the bank/ISA and as the years trickle by start learning the ATPL course.

It really shouldn't be that hard to put away a £1000 a month as long as your parents are supportive and you get a half decent job plus the weekend bar work.

At the tender age of 22 you would have saved £48k plus compounded interest of £4k. That *IS* enough to do the Modular PPL - CPL - Multi IR and ATPL exams with a £4k contingency fund. Perfect.

So by 23 you've cracked it and you owe nothing. By comparison your mate who went to University is now in his first year of some mundane graduate training position earning £15k a year whilst looking at his £12k student loan. He's having to pay the rent + bills on a shared room as he had to move 50 miles away from home to get the job. He still hankers after persuing his flying dream - its just not looking possible for another 5 years.. :(

Good luck, Sparks - 4 years will probably be the perfect time to sit out the house price crash and recession and airline contraction. You'll be fine.

WWW

[Prophead]

Why not get cracking with it now and start your PPL. You can then be doing your hour building whilst working studying ATPL's.

You might get a cheap/non equity share in something interesting or some other opportunity may crop up. You will build quality hours over a longer period of time in different weather, seasons etc. Maybe a few trips into Europe. Much better than just paying out for a load of hours in as short a time as possible over in the states.

You may well end up having to fund a type rating. If your already paying a large chunk of your salary on a loan you may well struggle to finance this.

[Mikehotel152]

Wow, I wish I had been earning £24,000 p.a. driving a FLT at the age of 18! :eek: Instead, I spent 5 years at Uni/Law School and was 27 before I earnt £24,000 p.a. as a fully qualified solicitor, carrying over £30,000 in student debt. :{

So, count yourself lucky mate! You are in a great position to earn enough money to pay for your ATPL without getting a loan, but I would seriously doubt whether you'll be able to live on £6,000 a year. Give yourself a bit longer, enjoy your youth a bit more (I certainly enjoyed myself at your age! :E). Otherwise you'll have a miserable time for 4 years, finally get a job and by the age of 30 you'll be whinging like most of the seasoned pilots on this site...:ooh: [did I say that out loud?]

IMHO do the ATPL when you're in your early to mid-twenties. In the meantime you can research all the different options for courses in the UK and abroad, save up your money, and even do your PPL to see whether you actually have an aptitude for flying. Who knows, you may decide you don't want to be a commercial pilot! There's no rush!!!

[I'm off to do an FLT course!]

[SparksFlyHigh]

Thank you for your replies, an interesting mix of views.

My figures may not work out, but i am paying minimal rent at home but also running a car. I think i should still be able to do this, as long as i am careful with my money.

I have already started my PPL and hope to have this completed by the end of the summer.

Im not only thinking of saving for however long and then going for an fATPL but i am also thinking of going modular over the next 4/5 years and spending my money as i get it as such to get to a CPL IR with an FI.

Alot to think about but i just dont want to have to pay any interest to anyone over any period of time, even if it means working 7 days a week and living on the skint for a while.

[SparksFlyHigh]

MikeHotel

I wouldnt count myself lucky as such, i am working 45 hours a week, working hard too believe it or not :rolleyes:

Also trying to do a college course at the same time, hence my other thread, and a ppl shoved on top of that also.

The job is ****e, but the money is good. At this stage thats the only thing that is important to me, money. I could probably go and do something that i enjoy more for £12k a year but that isnt going to pay for anything.

But like i said, im considering going CPL IR FI route to "spice things up" a bit :p

[nickmanl]

24k driving a FLT? Really, I mean that is more than you will probably get starting out in the right hand seat!

[Maude Charlee]

Chickens..................count..................hatch...... ............

I've been trying to kid myself with similar rosy-tinted views of my financial future for the 20 years since I was your age kid. Life has this rather annoying habit of throwing spanners in the works when you least expect it. Whilst I admire your clarity of vision and determination, be very careful about expecting things to just keep running along the way they are now.

As has been said already, you are tremendously fortunate to find yourself in a very strong financial position at such a young age, but you need to realise that whilst this may be normal for you (or even your friends), you are going to meet many, many people who have come from a vastly different financial background. For those guys, training without a loan is not an option at all.

There are FO's out there earning less than you in their first full-time flying job, which in itself is a substantial improvement on their previous earnings, who are almost 20 years your senior, with families and major finacial commitments. Just bear that in mind when you eventually start your career, and I'm sure you'll get off to a good start.

Other than that, I'm sure we all wish you luck.

[usedtofly]

SparksFlyHigh,

I gotta say it dude, WELL DONE :ok:

Your attitude is correct. Getting a loan is easy, getting a flying job isn't !

You have 'youf' on your side and by the sounds of it plenty of enthusiasm.

Don't let any b**ger grind you down.

Even if it took you a little longer (say 7 years) at 25 you will still be the right age.


UTF :)

[SparksFlyHigh]

I appriciate circumstances may change for the better or worse and i am anticipating this.

I have already had my first "spanner" in the form of a pretty serious RTA. Been signed off work for a while and it effected my flying negatively in some respects but i survived and although it dented my flying funds significantly, i had to get back on the road asap to get to work.

Im determined and will do anything i can to get to where i want to be. More spanners will be thrown at me but thats good...i learn more from it than anything else.

I dont have money on my side but i have the time and the will so lets see what i can make of it :ok:

[youngskywalker]

yeah and I wonder how many of those poorly paid F/O's actually paid for the career the hard way? I bet plenty got a blank cheque from daddy! good on you I say, you are working bloody hard to make your own dreams come true and not wasting a few years doing 'a degree in golf course design' and then scrounging 60k off a family member. With youre attitude I have no doubt you will succeed.

[Mikehotel152]

Hmmmm, I thought my post was pretty encouraging. :confused: And I'm sorry to hear about the RTA. That's bad luck and would knock anyone for 6. I had one too and it's a nightmare. So I hope you recover well.

But, get real, you are lucky to be earning £24K at 18 years of age driving a FLT! After 5 years of hard graft after I turned 18, paying vast amounts of money to study stuff that makes the ATPL Air Law look like an entertaining Beano Comic, my starting wage as a solicitor working more than 45 hours a week was £14K at the age of 24. That's 6 years down the line from where you are! Imagine the size of FLT you could be driving by then! :p

Joking aside, my point was merely that you are in a great position to plan ahead. You've got age and earning power on your side. By the time you're my age you'll be sitting in the LHS...and that's even if you only finish the ATPL when you're in your mid-twenties. As it happens, you've said you're going to do things over the next 5 years using the modular route, and that's exactly how I'd approach things if I were you.

Good luck :ok:

[SparksFlyHigh]

MikeHotel

Sorry for the unintentially negative tone in my reply to your post. I appriciate that i have landed a decent paid job for my age and that is lucky but i just dont want it to seem like i have won the lottery :p That reminds me, i need to buy a ticket or 10:}

"As it happens, you've said you're going to do things over the next 5 years using the modular route, and that's exactly how I'd approach things if I were you."

I was hoping this was the right choice and it makes me feel more confident about myself and plans hearing this advice from other people too. So, thank you :)

[Anderson8]

But what about me, Im 17 tomorrow...fantasise about being a pilot some day.
Live in a low incomed household (no parents income for me) And the job id be best as is accounting..... i dont think you can get a job at accountanct without degree can you?

:(

Forget Uni, too much debt... i want a good job that enables me to have enough saved up by my 22nd birthday to LIVE THE DREAM!!!

[SparksFlyHigh]

Go out and find that job then Anderson:ok:

Doesnt have to be anything special, just see what the pay is like.

[StevenN]

Hi Anderson8

Yes you can get an accountant job without a degree.

To become a qualified accountant without a degree you will have to get the AAT qualification. Heres their web address : -

http://www.aat.co.uk/

They should be able to advise you who is recruiting in your area.

Once you have the AAT you can then go on to become a Chartered or Certified accountant.

Good luck

Steve

[Mikehotel152]

Or learn to drive a FLT :p

[CABUS]

Just a quick idea, I worked as a dispatcher and load master at an airport for 4 years to gain the money. Not only do you learn loads about the industry which will stand you in excellent sted but also have the chance to make loads of contacts that can help when you finally get the licence and you get to SLOWLY earn the money you require.

Best of luck.

[4KBeta]

As pointed out , you don't "need" a degree to be an accountant but when it comes to jobs, you will be competing against people with degree's. The whole point of the accounting degree is to understand the foundations of the job, then you graduate - hopefully get a job at a respectable company that usually pay your fees for the exams whilst learning on the job and earning money for them...a win win situation.

Also...15K Graduate pay? Were the hell do you live WWW, no wonder your opinions on university aren't exactly great. I cant speak for many but myeslf and the majority of my friends earn well over that on first employment from university, not trying to sound big headed.

[portsharbourflyer]

4KBeta,

While alot of graduate salaries are upwards of 20K + these days there is still a number of graduates whose earning potential is limited; purely for the fact they did degrees which I will term as useless. More to the point the people WWW refer to are not in graduate jobs, there are increasing number of graduates having to accept non-graduate low paid positions because they picked a useless degree subject. Also it is possible to become an Accountant by starting as an Account Assistant at 18, therefore such candidates are not competing against graduates. Infact by this route they can still achieve an accounting degree without the debt acquired by university study.

The education system in the last few years has been geared to sending as many people as possible to post 18 education; misfortunately the increase has been in what I term soft option courses, the country is still short of engineering and mathemathics graduates yet the numbers attending University are considerable higher than 10 or 20 years back.

It is really refreshing though to see a youngster prepared to work and save for this rather than expecting the local banks to offer mortgage style debts to fund their dream for an integrated course.

I wonder how may of these people taking out the 50K loans with HSBC to fund integrated courses realise how much interest they will pay during the repayment period. Also do they realise that it was no coincidence that HSBC will now only loan for integrated courses.

Good luck Sparks

[wbryce]

Its the exact same route I done but I borrowed 8k via a CDL.... I started when I was 18, finished when I was 22 with 8k debt.

[danpow]

Im 19 and work in ground services at london city on 19k p.a, i live at home with my parents atm but i pay out 400 a month on my car each month on insurance and re-payments and im sturggling to pay for the PPL after keep and luxuries etc. anyone got any ideas on how i could manage this, without a loan because thats out the question.

cheers dan

[SOTV]

I only fly for fun but to fund it I spent a few grand and got a decent car, had it plated as a private hire driver and sacrifice most Fri and Sat evenings and Sun mornings driving it. After all expenses I can usually clear about £200-£275 each week. Not particularly nice ferrying obnoxious pissheads about late at the weekend but it serves a purpose and it is free disposable income as the day job does the rest.

That would be another grand a month in the bank if you were saving to do the professional thing.

:ok:

[ulsterflyer]

I studied pharmacy at uni and am now fully qualified. I always wanted to be a pilot but was advised by parents and teachers to get a degree and pharmacy seemed alright at the time. It's not a bad career, decent enough money, ok working conditions but my heart's not totally in it - it's not what I've always wanted to do. I'm currently trying to save £40k for a full time modular course!
As for loans; if you can afford the £40-60k needed to get there without one, you are either very lucky or extremely dedicated.

[flyboy1818]

Good thinking, this is one of the best threads that I have seen in a while! Your figures don't add up 100% but the ideal is about right. Rather than wait four years I would do things as you go along, figure out a plan and figure out how much its gonna cost you each month, almost like repaying a loan but without the intrest and the nasty banks! For example this year you could put £500 per month aside, this would leave you with a grand per month to live off and enough in the bank to get a PPL, then next year move onto the hour buliding and so on, over the next few years your salary should increase as your young and seem to have the right mindset so you will be able to afford to put more aside each month towards the big plan. At the end of the four years you will have no debt, an fATPL and a whole load of life experience behind you, you will be well positioned for a job as a Pilot!

In the long run you will be upto 100K richer than the average integrated student with a loan due to the affect of compound intrest!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

£17,715 (average) for full-time first degree graduates from 2005 whose destinations were known and who were in full-time employment in the UK six months after graduating, according to latest figures released by the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA).

This figure comes from the Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education (DLHE) survey, which explores graduates’ destinations six months after graduation.


The average graduate salary is a little misleading as there are some people who graduate straight into Finance and Banking or other highly lucrative jobs. For Joe Red Brick studying a bog standard Ology and getting a Desmond then sub £20k for a first job is highly likely. Until recently this was easily beaten by site labourers.

The bottom line is that Uni will never pay off if you end up going on the a flying career before your mid 30's. A degree is expensive in both time and money and the returns take time to achieve. Its also not so much more fun than being out there in the real world earning and progressing to your ultimate dream. For every wild week of parties there's a week of exam cramming or all-night dissertation writing.

Historically when people got married in the their early 20's and did the family thing shortly after and up to that point lived with their parents THEN I think University was a life and attitude changing decision. Now its just 3 more years of school.

WWW

[Mikehotel152]

Even though this thread is creeping a bit, I felt compelled to second what WWW is saying about degrees because I think it is a disgrace how this Government has devalued degrees in order to crow about the number of students in tertiary education. It's the same story with A-Levels and GCSEs but let's not go there! :rolleyes:

Furthermore, a large number of people are reading for practically useless degrees in the belief that this improves their chances of getting a decent job, while the degree courses which produce the graduates that industry is crying out for remain undersubscribed. Whatever happened to apprenticeships, where people learn on the job?

At the end of your degree you're likely to be over £25,000 in debt and in the 3 years you've been in the student bar your mates who went straight into jobs are earning more than you could hope to earn when you graduate. Obviously there are exceptions, such as those who go into the City of London's financial or legal markets, but that doesn't alter the overall graduate pay levels much - as WWW has pointed out.

[4KBeta]

Trying to keep this thread on topic.

I do think it is great some are willing to save (were possible) and try to reduce the amount of credit required (if any) to do training of any sort. So I wish anyone that does that good luck, save hard and use your money wisely. Research into ISA's or high interest savings accounts (the one that dont punish for withdrawing money) - For example, I know of a certain online bank offering a savings account rate of 6.5 % aer...that's pretty good considering you can withdraw / deposit as much as you want without penalties.

Off topic:

Back to the Degree thing, I would echo that degree choice is very important, doing something that will cost you x amount and not pay up at the end is pointless as highlighted above. I studied Computer Science.

I wouldn't agree with the "uni would never pay off before mid 30's" - even jumping into a first job at the listed graduate average wage. Graduate schemes usually include pay jumps in quick succession, including training and other benefits. For example I am lucky enough for my job to include a lot of travel around Europe and sometimes further a field. Something I wouldn't of got without my background.

As I have said, I went to university so I can't comment on the life of someone that didn't. I am more then aware, there will be some my age that did not go to university that do earn more then myself and be very happy with there choice. So yes I can see both sides of the argument. People just have different opinions sometimes :)

At the end of the day, I am sure most would agree, including people above, that university is not required to pursue a job in aviation or many other areas. Work hard, show commitment and be prepared...that is the most important statement to keep in your head.

SparksFlyHigh - I hope all goes to plan and I hope you keep to that saving schedule as it will pay off ! :)

[clanger32]

Moving slightly furhter again away from the original topic, the best I've ever heard the degree/no degree thing summed up was that with no degree as you move up the food chain it becomes progressively harder to take that next step. With a degree behind you at least one of the barriers ("you don't have a degree") is removed.
Therefore, the benefit of a degree is long term....unless your heart lies in a job that doesn't require one....like aviation! FWIW, my degree took me about 5 years to clear my debts, but I got quite lucky (in retrospect) in that I joined a very fast moving company and my role grew as they did.

Back ON topic...
Fantastic idea. I really wish more 18 year olds would realise that pilots will still be required in 5/6/7 years time and that by saving for it (numbers aside - that's been done to death) now, you save a whole world of pain later.

[usedtofly]

Don't forget..............

A degree does not guarantee a job

A CPL does not guarantee a job

Having a loan does guarantee a debt

Spending 50K does guarantee being 50K worse off than not spending it

Life's a gamble :eek:

:E

[Re-Heat]

Accountants can qualify straight from school on the AAT - ACA fast track

http://www.icaew.com/index.cfm?route=150503

CEO of Deloitte UK did just that and is the highest-paid UK accountancy boss by quite a way.

[preduk]

What student debt? I'm leaving University with no debt at all. Infact, they have been paying me £3k a year to attend university and paying all my tuition fees.

I've been earning £15k a year (wages + University money) which has paid for my flight training and will get me a degree out of it. Yeh, it's taken a bit longer to finish off (could only afford 4-6 lessons a month) but I'm enjoying it.

University is great, you don't earn a full time job worth of money but you learn a lot. I've travelled all over the world this year all because I go to Uni.

[portsharbourflyer]

Preduk,

I believe in Scotland the Local Education Authorities still pay your tutition fees. South of the border (ie: in England) students have had to pay tuition fees and have for the last eight or nine years. I'll stop there to avoid making this thread political.

[KandiFloss]

Anderson ... good for you! You go! I was in a similar situation to you, grew up on Bestwood Council Estate (Nottingham) with my mother and grandad (no rich mummy and daddy sadly). I didn't want to go the way that I saw so many of my friends go from that Estate. I'm now a secondary school teacher, and saving up for my ATPL. I AM going to be paid to fly someday!

[Adam106]

Pilot Chick, sounds like you're in a similar position to myself - I'm certainly not from a wealthy background, but I went to uni with a little help from the LEA I'm now a secondary school physics teacher saving like mad to afford flying.
PPL at the moment, finally escaping the classroom in july to start ATPLs with CATs in september. Can't wait for the end of the summer term! I'm certainly of the attitude that nobody will stop me now.

[GeorgEGNT]

My parents have recently said they would give me the best help possible to someone working towards an ATPL lol. I have been informed that I will not be given the boot and can stay at home for as long as I need virtually rent free.
I mean, in my view this is much better than allowing you to secure a loan on their house.
After my a-levels I can now find a job (at the airport hopefully) and save some money without having to worry about living costs etc...
I used to have my heart set on integrated courses. I'm so glad I sat down and looked at my situation realistically, I dont have the money...simple really.
I think integrateds great if you've got the money, and I also think if you dont have the money, its worth checking out other options than the walking into the nearest bank you see.

[Trevor Macken]

Well done Sparks however I have one small spanner to throw into the works:

Are you planning on having a girlfriend/boyfriend/plaything over the course of your flight training? If so delete the thread as maintenance of a healthy relationship will require you

a) To spend LOTS of money on untold if not strange events like going for a meal or taking her/him to the cinema


b) her/his:

Birthday
Valentines day
her/his mother's day gift


I think you catch my drift... My point IS there will be LOTS of unexpected costs along this fine route and buying lipstick for your new little missus may not seem expensive but IT IS !!!!

Rant over....

Best of luck, avoid women (whilst training) the glow from your flight simulator will far surpass the tones of a beautiful woman ten feet away... aaaggggghhhhhhhhh :sad:

t :E

[SparksFlyHigh]

:p:p:p

Dont worry, she is gone now...she was cheap anyway. ;)

[student88]

Now, I'm working in an airlines Operations department whilst I'm saving the money and doing my training. I earn about £1,850 a month after tax. I live at home rent free - I don't pay for food either and I drive a car which I don't pay for. However, I do pay for:

Car servicing - I drive 1,400 miles a month for the pleasure of working in Luton - put aside £50 per month if you drive as much as I!
Petrol - thats another £140 a month
Phone bill - £45
Gym membership £35
Car insurance - o.k., I've only just started paying for it but it's still £80 a month
Personal loan - I took out a loan to help build my credit rating and to pay for my PPL. It's about £180 a month for the next 7 months.
Random shopping sprees - it's very hard to not spend any money on things unless you really need them! You can account for another £50-£100 here - think about birthday presents, mothers and fathers day, prescriptions. I'm also getting a brace and the consultation alone is £80!Total - about £630. meaning I have about £1,150 that I can realistically put into a savings account. That's about 35% of my earnings per month that don't see the savings account.

S88:ok:

[tudeski2004]

Thats not bad money for a 20 year old. You must be on £30000 a year then!!. Lucky git. I have been a police officer for almost 11 years and I only just earn more than that, plus I am 30 too. Granted I gave up on my dream, as age was against me and I got offered a job in Australia, but sometimes I wish I hadn't. Anyway good luck to all of you wanting to do it. Which ever way you fund it

[portsharbourflyer]

There are loads of people out there who started training out there after the age of thirty and still found airline employment. I have met and known people in their early to mid forties getting their first commercial job.

You could still be qualified by the age of 32. I understand there are reasons to pursue or not to pursue commercial pilot training but age is not an issue for you. If you think CTC use to have the age limit of 34 for the ATP scheme then you would have easily have been within this. Since JAA was introduced you will find far more trainees are more likely to be in their thirties than twenties.

[tudeski2004]

Cheers Portsharbourflying,

I know people say age is not an issue, but when it comes down to me as a 32/34 year old or a 23/24 year old, it's not hard to guess who they would go for.
There were other decisions too, like the airline industry as it stands and whether I could risk spending all that money,and getting no job at the end of it. Maybe i'll change my mind out in Australia,after all it has to be cheaper to fly out there. I still have my PPL too.

[portsharbourflyer]

Depends on the operater, choice between a 34 and 24 year old with equal flying experience, some TP operaters need the older candidates as they are more likely to stay for a TP command than move on to a Jet job. Though that said 42 rather than 32 is the age where this argument becomes relevant.

The corporate sector often needs to present a maturer person up front even if the experience isn't that high; hence in this instance the 32 year old is more likely to be employed than the 22 year old. Aviation is a funny industry and you will find there are no hard and fast rules for anything and almost any opinion can be disproved either way. That said I do try to base my posts on experience and actual fact rather than opinion.

Australia and New Zealand are one of the biggest "exporters" of ex-pat pilots. I don't know how things stand in Australia now but traditionally a Aus/NZ a pilot would need about 2000 hours to get look in with a regional operator. Hence the reason why several Aus and NZ pilots are working in the UK.

You could certainly build your hours in Australia cheaply but if you ever do decide to go commercial you will find the UK is still one of the better places to be based for flying employment opportunities.

Anyway as said if you have considered your options and decided it isn't for you that is fine; but if you were discounting it purely because of your age then you would be very mislead. Good luck