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ORAC
23rd Apr 2008, 22:03
An interesting short article. I know there are financially literate people out there, perhaps they'd like to comment?

Graham Brady On Aviation Taxation (http://www.spectator.co.uk/business/trading-floor/629406/graham-brady-on-aviation-taxation.thtml)

Graham Brady MP has a go at the latest tax proposals (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/04/23/do2304.xml) in The Telegraph today. I do think he's rather got the wrong end of the stick though.
All this reflects badly enough on Gordon Brown's economic competence, but how much worse would it be if he were to repeat the whole exercise this autumn? That is what is about to happen with his proposals for a new tax on commercial flights called "aviation duty".

The idea is seductive: scrap an unpopular tax on air passengers and replace it with a new charge on every aircraft taking off from a UK airport. On the face of it, this is a neat incentive for greener aviation - if airlines are taxed per flight rather than per passenger, surely they will stop flying planes with empty seats?

Sounds sensible indeed.

The Government starts with a simple aim: to "provide incentives for the more efficient use of planes by taxing similarly sized aircraft the same, no matter how full the plane"; the duty should "reflect the environmental impacts of flights, including the distance travelled".

The same document warns of the dangers of "creating market distortions" and "tax-motivated behaviour which does not deliver environmental benefits". Unfortunately, a "per plane" duty will achieve exactly that - market distortions but no environmental benefit.

Let's look first at air freight. This sector is vital for the transport of time-sensitive and perishable goods. Air freight underpins thousands of jobs - especially, but not exclusively, in the key election battlefield around East Midlands Airport.

The highly competitive and price-sensitive freight sector is not affected by the existing passenger-related tax, but would be under the new proposals.

If the hefty £16,000-plus currently paid by passengers on a typical long-haul Jumbo is to be recovered from a plane carrying freight, then those flights will be uneconomic.

Leave aside his worries about flight diversions (neither he nor I know how much of this will happen) and look at the basic point of such taxation.

It's called a Pigou Tax: the essential idea is that not all effects of an action are captured in market prices. Thus we add a tax to make sure that all of those externalities are in fact included in market prices. Then when everyone trades on the basis of those prices we actualy have everyone paying the full costs of heir actions. Exactly what we want to happen, no?

For if we have costs which are not included in prices then we have an inefficient market, absolutely not what we want at all.

The move from per passenger to per flight makes sense for the very reason mentioned above, that it increases the pressure to fly planes full rather than half empty.

Now this idea of Pigou taxation is pretty well established: it's not just a revenue grab by the Treasury, it's not just some Green nonsense imposed upon us by the Stern Review (although the level might be, the principle isn't). Mainstream economics it is, entirely mainstream.

Note again that we're not actually adding to the costs of the action itself: we're insisting that those undertaking the action must pay all of the costs associated with it. For example, our airfreighters, they are already imposing those costs of £16,000 (again, the actual level is arguable, but not the principle) upon the Commons: all we are insisting is that they pay for them.

That is, that if by paying these costs those flights become too expensive for the airline, we're not making them uneconomic, we are simply highlighting the fact that they are already uneconomic.

We also have the great joy of telling the food miles fanatics to bugger off. If those airfreighted green beans from Kenya are paying the 1p per 250 grammes (calculated by Tim Harford) that their CO2 emissions cost, then the polluter is paying and the hippies can go hang.

Hmm. Given that Pigou was an economist and he's now dead, this is probably another edition of "Things dead economists can tell us about the modern world."

Two's in
23rd Apr 2008, 22:29
it's not just a revenue grab by the Treasury

The prosecution rests M'lud.

cortilla
24th Apr 2008, 00:14
A pigouvian tax is a very interesting idea in the transport sector. Actually the theory behind the pigouvian tax is probably most relevant in the transport sector.

The theory behind the tax i find is best explained through congestion and pollution (as it's the way it was explained to me).

Motorist x spends so many pounds for petrol, car insurance depreciation road tax etc etc and so has an idea in his/her mind as to how much driving is costing him personally. However said driver x will take no account whatsoever the cost that he/she is incurring on other people. He doesn't care that him being on the road may slow down other drivers, and that him driving his car causes pollution and therefore affects the general public. people will only change their habits by having greater costs implied on them. Therefore to make the motorist consider all options before choosing the car, a cost has to be applied to him to bring the cost he is imposing on the general public into his mindset when chosing which mode of travel to use.

However because most other options to motorists (bus, cycle, walking etc) are considered to be inferior products (not a slight at other forms of transport, rather an economic term) the cost imposed on the motorist would have to be far greater than the cost the motorist is imposing on other people and therefore the pigouvian tax is no longer fair and therefore unworkable.

Congestion charging in london started out as a pigouvian tax however it was a bit of a blunt instrument. And now with the massive increases in cost and extension of the zone to make road users consider other options it is no longer fair and open to abuse.

Now how to relate this cost on to the aviation industry. I wrote part of my dissertation at university on the european cabon emissions trading scheme and how it would relate to the aviation industry. I did a bit of funky maths looking at growth versus inflation versus increasing costs as imposed by the emissions trading scheme. At the time one tonne of carbon was trading for approximately 12 euros. I havn't looked at it recently but i'm sure it went up. I assumed that these costs would be passed trough directly to the customer, and found that unless a ton of carbon went over the 300 euro mark you would only see a reduction of current demand by less than 0.5 percent. Considerng the market at the time was growing by 3 percent a year, basically bugger all happened. The ETS would have no effect.

So to wrap it all together, unless a pigouvian tax was so great as to be considered unfair and punishing, then we would not see a change in travel behaviour and it would basically be a money grab by the treasury.

modelflyer
24th Apr 2008, 14:08
An interesting case of costs and travel behaviour, to pick up on Cortilla's final point.

My wife and I travelled to Spain and back last week by a well-known profitable, punctual airline at a cost of £64 for about 5,200 passenger miles (1.2p per passenger mile). At peak holiday season the flights would cost about 6p per passenger mile.

To get to/from Luton airport we paid train fare of £20 for 40 passenger miles (50p per passenger mile).

The train is highly subsidised (and the experience/views from the window is nowhere near as good) and the plane is pretty well private enterprise, is it not?

Keep us flying, ladies and gentlemen - the modern passenger jet is a highly useful and cost-effective device. It will take a lot of tax to ground us.

Economics101
24th Apr 2008, 16:08
Economists generally have preference for a Carbon Tax as the most efficient and least-cost way of achieving some desired reduction of Carbon emissions. It certainly seems attractive when compared with the plethora of piecemeal and highly intrusive measures now being touted: bans on conventional light bulbs, various forms of air travel taxes, incentives to produce biofuels which play merry hell with food prices, etc.

However the best kind of carbon tax is (a) levied on as comprehensive a basis as possible, and not just on one sector (e.g. transport) and (b) levied on a world-wide basis, or as wide an international basis as possible. Economists generally like taxes to have a broad base and a low rate, in order to minimise distortions.

I believe that a broad-based carbon tax would stimulate a very significant substitution away from coal, oil and gas in electricity generation. However the same substitution is more difficult in transport (with the exception of railways powered by nuclear-generated electircity), and is virtually impossible in aviation, where you have to carry the fuel on board.

There are a lot of green fanatics who just hate air travel: the best response to them is a comprehensive carbon tax, and let the market determine who will reduce emissions.

airfoilmod
24th Apr 2008, 17:08
Some questions.

"broad-based". A low, broad based tax encourages a shift to Alt. Fuel?

How? It could, but wants more definition. I think the opposite would hold.

Taxing Carbon producers, punitively, then directing the proceeds toward implementation of options, including counteracting the powerful hydrocarbon political behemoth, would have some effect.

Taxing Producers means taxing C consumers. I defer to your expertise, but my political experience instructs me that taxes generally turn out to be toxic to the Market. In the case of Oil, if that is the honest motive, have at it. Until available and technologically fluent alternatives become profitable, or at least in demand (roughly the same thing), Oil has us by the shorties.

Airfoil

(Also, why would you want to minimize "distortions" if what you want is a change. I should think you would want the tax to "maximize" its effect. The Market tends not to respond to taxes it doesn't notice. Unless it's just the tax money you're after.)