Flyer Show Heathrow 2008

[Duffer2007]

hey all,

Jut back from london and im loaded down with brochures from the flyer show, one hell of a lot of info for me!

Anyone got any thought on it, let me know of anyhting you guys found out that maybe i wouldn.t have known ... tell on!!

Ian

[BIG MISTER]

Hi

For those of us that didnt / couldnt make it to the show....could those that did tells us all what the airlines had to say about the current / future for Wannabes ?

:ok:

[Leeds1972]

All airlines were basically giving the same message, that recruitment for pilots is very buoyent.
Ryan air and easy jet recruiting 400 to 500 pilots each this year and BA between april 08 and april 09, plan on 260 new recruits.
Flybe and the training school of Ireland launched a new cadet scheme yesterday, but not exactly sure on what it involves, suggest people look on their website.
I think worryingly for myself and other modular route, low hours guys is that the trend seems more and more for airlnes to recruit from schools such as CTC, Oxford etc..
Its very difficult for all us low hours guys to stand out from each other, and without forking out for a type rating etc I cant see alot of hope without lots of luck..
Any info from what other guys found out is welcome

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Meanwhile - in a parallel universe - Ryanair are grounding two dozen aircraft over the winter, easyJet have stopped recruiting and ThompsonFly are talking about pilot redundancies.

BA are recruiting.


WWW

[Leeds1972]

Dont shoot the messenger WWW, just passing on the figures quoted to me by the various airlines recruiting people. Cant see any reason why they wouldn't quote genuine figures???

[Nearly There]

Its very difficult for all us low hours guys to stand out from each other, and without forking out for a type rating etc I cant see alot of hope without lots of luck..



Dont get fixed on a TR to get a job, people always discount the FI route for some reason, this is a tried and tested source of recruitment for AOC operators and airlines.

My local school has had such a high turn over of instructors during at least the last 12 months, all of which have moved up the ladder to either air taxi or airlines and have not had to fork out for there TR.

[Leeds1972]

How long would you say on average to be an instructor before been picked up by one of the big boys? What kind of hours would they be looking for? How many hours on average does a FI complete during an average yr?

[Air Slidder]

Hi guys

I was at the show yesterday, though i got there late and didn't get into any of the semi' things. So spent most the time asking people the same mundane questions... and getting the same answers.

Apart from having enough literature (having helped to cut down a small eco forest) I'm still none the wiser:( Where is the best place to train? I'm in my late 20s, I've spoken to all the OAAs and CTCs out there, everybody seems much of a much. Now I'm even confused about doing an integrated course or a modular course... where whom when aaargh

BA MAN said train only with intergrated guys!!!
Modular Guys say you'll get a job even for ba through them!!!

ConfusedDotCOm

[Leeds1972]

You need to be wise and look at where the airlines are recruiting from and this tends to be CTC, Oxford etc

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Look.

You've been to a show that is put on by a magazine. Like all magazines the vast vast bulk of their income is derived from adverts. A big chunk of those adverts are placed by training providers and training supply shops.

Guess what.

The message is that you should spend all your money on training and training equipment. There has never been a better time to train. Etc ad nauseum.

Recruitment for pilots HAS BEEN very bouyant. As your concern is the market this coming year and next I wouldn't pay any attention to the spin broadcast at the Flyer affair.

Because that is what it is. Spin by Vested Interests.


WWW

[portsharbourflyer]

Leeds1972

Full time FI in the UK can expect to fly anything between 30 to 70 hours a month depending on the time of year. 30 hours a month typical during winter months and about 50 - 70 hours a month during the summer months.

Last year was a particulary awful summer though. Remember the market was really active last year hence why so many FIs moved on. Myself I started to get invited to interviews once I hit 700 hours total time, after about 7 months of full time instructing. Though the school I worked for wasn't particulary busy.

However colleagues in the past have instructed for up to two years even longer when the market wasn't quite so good before moving on. Some still ended up paying for ratings. So as to picking an FI rating over a type rating; you really need to do your research on the market when you finish training. In other words how long will you need to instruct for and how many hours? That is very hard question to answer. Though it is generally regarded there is no significant benefit in having more than a 1000 hours of single engine time. Also air taxi/single pilot public transport operators require 700 hours of total time for insurance (there are multi time requirements but some firms will allow you to build multi time flying empty sectors to meet this requirement).

An FI rating will certainly keep more options open and can lead to more interesting flying jobs. However I will not deny that funding a rating can be the financially more shrewd thing to do. If you are to go down the type rating route I would recommend the ATR rating at the moment.

[Leeds1972]

Seems very good advice, cheers ports

[Air Slidder]

Its seems like i should just jump in and start training somewhere. As long as the school is a good one then... all should be good?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Quite right Slidder - what could possibly go wrong?


WWW

[mason]

hi guys just a word of advice which im sure www is trying to get across too. all isnt looking rosy on the other side of the training .I would always recomend to do the ground school but id give it a few months first too see how the recession settles or doesnt you dont want huge debts over your heads and no possibility of employment.

[portsharbourflyer]

My only other comment is if you want to fly for a living you are going to do this anyway irrespective of the current economic circumstances.

I don't think you can plan your training to coincide with a boom or bust because the market is too unpredictable; if you start to train at the time of a boom the industry is likely to be at a downturn by the time you finish. Consequently there are those that trained when industry was looking bleak hence when the upturned occured were ready to step into the market.

If any of us had thought about the whole thing in a rational way then none of us would probably have done this.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

So to sum up - don't bother worrying about your post training employment prospects, its all far to complicated.


Remind me not to check the weather and notams the next time I'm setting off down route..

WWW

[Air Slidder]

Its time to grab the bull by the horns...

... I know that there are always economic driving forces to any industry. But if i was to put training to aside while i watched from the side lines reading the FT it could be years before any Norman Lamont was to say its ok to spend and invest. And when the next boom was to happen you'd be half the way through it before you realised it.

[Duffer2007]

'its time to grab the bull by the horns'


So who you thinking of going to for training now air slider???

[Air Slidder]

Hey Duffer

I think that I'll look at CabA or OAA in the uk or even waac, if i can find something out about there previous students getting jobs. I'm gonna be contacting the schools tomorrow to get further info, on dates and stuff. My main reason is so as i can get my training done asap by a reputable school. FTE and CTC seem to be good but won't be able to start with them until next year. And if i don't get into a intergrated course I was looking at Cabair modular, mainly coz there are plenty of schools around and the girls there yesterday did look good:)

ya never know i might change my mind by the morning... I'm still got alot of questions i need answering. What do think about those schools guys?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I think I'd spend at least a year researching the job, the industry and the training options before I'd even think about contacting schools about course dates.


But like many hundreds of others every year you could just blunder in and spend a lot of money on a wing and a prayer. You might get lucky - you never know.

WWW

[EpsilonVaz]

I would also like to point out that you should take most of what is said at that show by most of the schools with a large, large bucket of salt. The world is not all roses and champagne like they make out.

I don't mean to discourage anyone from undertaking this career, there is really nothing like it and I'm sure you wont regret the decision. Just make sure you know what you are really getting yourself into.

[russellmounce]

Air Slidder

BA dont recriut anyone from modular for their 1st job. The thing is, I dont think they're looking for any low hours guys at the mo anyway, so the integrated course isn't much of a benefit.

It's so hard to tell what the market is like when you finish your training. I'm in the same boat, as I have no idea what it will be like when i finish my training next year.

Ryanair made big statements about their fleet being 300 aircraft by 2012, and therefore recruiting 500 pilots every year. I wonder if that's really going to happen.

[Adios]

Save some of that bucket of salt for PPRuNe. BA is recruiting low hour pilots this year. Just read further up this very thread for the number they need. However, you won't be done this year and even if you were, there's no guarantee you'd be in the very small percentage they take. Most wannabes don't get a choice where their first job is. Read PPRuNe for a few weeks and you'll quickly see that there are hundreds of CPL/IR holders that would take just about anything offered right now.

WWW's advice to research for a year is good, no salt needed for that one. Though I would say to him there's no need to check the Notams 18 months in advance, so the analogy breaks down a bit. Go ahead and apply to CTC and FTE now, but use the year long queue to do more research. Also bear in mind what the GBP to Euro exchange rate is doing to the cost for UK residents to train at FTE.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

As I type Oil is trading at $117 a barrel. A record.

Consumer confidence is collapsing.

I would train as cheaply and slowly as possible and I would keep your current job/career on the back burner rather than burn any bridges.

Airlines will start going bust as soon as the clocks go back would by my guess.


WWW

[F/O UFO]

Hi Folks, I was there on Saturday, and these are my thoughts;

Being solely interested in the ab-initio route there were only really 4 schools relevant to me and I preferred them in this order;

1. CTC Wings
2. OAA
3. Cabair
4. FTE

I think I was less impressed by FTE as they didn’t bring any people on the course for me to speak to!

As far as the seminars went I went to both the BA and Ryanair ones, but unfortunately neither were of much use, mostly consisted of stuff I already knew. However I did find Ryanair (at least the Irish guy) had a lot more charisma than BA.

Probably the most useful thing was being told by a number of cadets to go to a GAPAN aptitude test, which hopefully I will be doing this summer.

[saccade]

Though I would say to him there's no need to check the Notams 18 months in advance, so the analogy breaks down a bit.For a flight of 8 hrs you check the notams for 8 hrs and for a career of 30 years you try to check the notams for the next 30 years.

Am I paranoid, or am I completely missing something? I think the petroleum prices are at a stage that further increases mean a slow but certain capacity reduction in air travel, and we are starting to see some solid evidence that this is happening.

Adios, just out of interest, how high do you think (roughly) the global oil production can be raised? And what are your expectations of application of alternatives for aviation?


(sorry slightly off topic)

[EpsilonVaz]

I don't know the exact price for oxford, but for the sake of this post I will say £70k.

IMO, there is no point spending all that money, where you can go to a school for £35k, then when you come out spend the rest on an SSTR scheme. You would be a huge step ahead of the rest.

Seems logical to me. But of course, it seems the OAT and FTE marketing is better than logic ;).

[F/O UFO]

What is this 35k school you speak of?

I assume it's modular. But the point of going integrated is High job prospects. Of course, most airlines also pay for your type rating.

It should be noted that OAA you also get a foundation degree- included in the ab-initio course.

[EpsilonVaz]

But the point of going integrated is High job prospects.
:ugh:

IMO I don't think Integrated gives you as much of a headstart as the school make out. Of course that is IMO and from what I've heard from friends, so could be wrong. But I know there are many, many jobless integrated graduates from OAT. I don't really want to go into the whole Modular vs Integrated debate here.

The £35k school is Egnatia Aviation. I did their in-house modular, finished recently and am now looking to embark on a SSTR. It's the route I have chosen and I'd recommend it to anyone.

[Air Slidder]

I think the main issue of future economic stability in the aviation sector is important... but extremely hard to predict. I had an email this morning from Meryl Lynch and they are predicting an up turn in 2 months time... and all the economic models I have seen don't seem to be leading to financial tragedy.

The US are in recession but the average recession lasts for 18 months b4 there's growth. This one maybe longer!!! who knows. But as far as i know there is not going to be a deep depression in the future financial forecasts. As for the UK we have a lack of consumer confidence (mainly through what we are told in the media). But the problem here is with the banks and their underwriters, they don't want to lend to each other through fear of losing their future capitol spread... there is money there... and we are still in a state of growth overall. I suppose if the UK and US doesn't pick up well hell you can go and work in the mid-east, india or china if thats your thing.

As for fossil fuels, they are decreasing and there is huge demands on industry to find alternatives. But lets face it people still will need/want to fly... it comes down to human nature.

Sorry about the economic lesson stuff!!!
And that stuff about spending as little as possible is a very sensible thing, as long as your goals are achieved effectively.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Many, including me, do not believe that this will be an average recession. Never in the history of the West have we had such a burden of debt. Never before have house price affordability values been stretched so taughtly.

All this is to dance on the head of a pin though. The 1990 - 93 recession was ordinary enough. Several large UK airlines went bust. Hundreds of pilots were out of work. Wannabes were screwed.

That's what an average recession will do.

The 2001 post Sept11th Slowdown was painful enough. I think even the most ardent optimist would concede that a slowdown is already baked in the cake.

With this in mind be in no doubt that all those at the Flyer show had a Vested Interest in YOU undertaking flying training. Nobody there was impartial.


WWW

[jezbowman]

Nobody there was impartial.

Apart from GAPAN... almost. :)

WWW, I spent a good 45 minutes talking to one of your orange friends on the GAPAN stand. He made more sense than any of the others and it was worth my while travelling down to LHR just for that conversation alone.

It was a good day. I enjoyed asking various people how the price of oil, economic downturn and credit crunch would affect them. The common was to ask me how many jobs are in the back of Flight this week. Another fine example of reading the METAR as a TAF; these guys are either oblivious or in denial. :rolleyes:

IMHO, fatter oil prices open up potential for further exploration, pushing peak oil further into the future. I doubt we will ever see < $100 oil again, but profitability for future extraction has been increased. There is no shortage of oil at the moment; OPEC said today that they believe there is a daily surplus. Trading uncertainties are the cause of high fuel prices.

The global downturn and life without cheap borrowing is the real worry here. It WILL be nasty. Do not assume that people "need" holidays and will continue to fly. Ten years ago, BMI charged circa. £500 for a round trip EMA-EDI. People used to pay that kind of money, but NOT MANY. Yes, bums on seats can go down as well as up. Your home may be repossessed if you cannot meet the repayments...

[Air Slidder]

Guys I hear what you are saying... and those concerns of yours are definitely concerns of mine! I would not advice anyone to buy a house at the mo'... I wouldn't advise anyone to invest in the capital markets just yet. And I have to take it from you guys that 911 thing was bad, real bad coz i was not looking at the aviation industry at the time. Definitely the industry has had a good time up to now even frivolous! Now they are gonna be a hell of allot more cautious about the coming couple of years.

But on a personal level, and hope you guys can respect this, I'm not in my teens or early 20s. I'm 29, 30 in 2 months! I feel that if i was to wait a few of years to see how things were and then start the process all over again, being in my mid 30s, by the time of completion I would be 'passed it'! You see, correct me if I'm wrong, but I haven't got the time to wait... I have to make that decision now... do I fly... or give up my dreams!

I know... Cringingly personal... where the guys with the white coats:)
I think I'll have to do some research on my age issues!!!

[Air Slidder]

I've read some other threads as to the age of pilots and i know WWW you say that as long as you are under 55 it don't matter... what does everyone else feel, coz at Flyer people did mention concerns of age...
... I'm not trying to make it sound like I'm over the hill... but as the GAPAN guy said the older you get the harder it is for someone to adapt themselves to needs of a pilot...
...maybe there isn't an issue with recruitment age, but your own ability to perform and learn as ya get older may diminish. pls set me right if you think diferent, as this was the view of the GAPAN and other guys at the show.

[zapoi67]

Please excuse my ignorance (I'm not a native speaker) : what does SSTR stand for ?
Thanks !

[EpsilonVaz]

SSTR = Self Sponsored Type Rating (a type rating you pay for yourself).

[portsharbourflyer]

WWW,

My statement that those that want to fly will do it anyway may sound rash, but as said I don't think you can plan training to coincide with the good or bad times. To be a good pilot you need to be a considered rational type, but the decision to train as a pilot can only be based on a passion for flying. When you consider the implications of pilot training, the cost and the sacrifice required no rational logical individual would ever consider it.

If you have a passion for flying you are going to do this anyway.

However I do not advocate that anyone should take on excessive debt to do this; but you should progress when you are in a financial position to do so.

It is also quite concerning how taken in some of these posters are by the marketing of the integrated schools. The integrated schools do have a recommendation systems but only for those that meet a certain standard; which I believe is first time passes in all ground exams, CPL flight test and at least series one pass in the IR. Also integrated courses will grade each flight and you will need to achieve a certain average grade across training to get a recommendation. After thet you will still need to pass the airlines own selection criteria.

If you don't get a recommendation then you are faced with having to instruct or fund a type rating the same as a modular student.

[jezbowman]

I'm not in my teens or early 20s. I'm 29, 30 in 2 months!

Then you're not that different to me! I am 28, soon to turn 29. To fly for a living is my dream but I certainly won’t risk anything that supports my wife and child. I refuse to let my dreams slip aside though; that would be equally detrimental to family life (dissatisfaction, resent, etc.). I don’t want to be aged 70, sitting complaining I didn’t have a go when I had the chance because WWW put a few negative comments on PPRuNe. You only get a single shot at life. But unfortunately, I do have to agree with most of what he says, like it or not.

So how do I resolve this problem? In simple terms:
* I’ll continue modular and keep a hand on the pace throttle myself. From sitting the first block of exams I have 18mths + 3yrs to complete all the training. I won’t spend a penny on flight training until I have some confidence in the market. There’s fun in learning and I’ll learn the ATPL theory until I can repeat the manuals word for word.
* I’ll borrow nothing and be prepared to spend £30k and not use the resulting licenses to earn money. I hope to spend less that this as training organizations become desperate to sell courses.
* I’ll maintain currency in my present career as a design-engineer.

I know that I am in a fortunate position to be able to say and do this. But if I never earn a penny flying, then the only "wasted" money is the CPL and MCC, since I'd be able to use the IR for private flying (and I would). But I’d still have learnt from those courses and made myself a better pilot.

Don’t give up on dreams; just manage the risk associated with achieving them.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

jezbowman - I commend your well planned, measured approach. It is exactly what I advocate. I cannot think of a better plan or a better way of illustrating the reality of my advice. Thanks.

Portsharbour. I know what you are saying. Speaking broadly there is too much passion and too little rationalisation in Wannabeism. For every well researched, prepared and informed Wannabe there are half a dozen wide-eyed idiots desperate to be seperated from their money. An entire industry of money seperation stands opposed by... well Me, most of the time. As you have surmised - the large FTO's promise of jobs for the boys comes with so many strings and caveats that it really isn't worth the cold hard cash outside of the boom years.

WWW

[nickyjsmith]

Guy's and girl's,
Look at OAA's website, 36 out of 63 graduate placement's this year to Ryanair. That mean's £70k for the course and they still had to pay £20k for the type rating.

Be careful with your money, if you can get any.

[wangus]

Been job hunting for months. Closed doors everywhere, and I work on the ground at a large airport with many contacts for multiple airlines. Empty promises made over the last few years are proving infuriating. Have applied to well over a hundred operators, now on round three. I know nobody owes me anything, but finding it hard to remain positive. Paying back over £500 a month for loan for training costs. Self-funded TR or £6000 for FI? Don't make me laugh. How my marriage has survived is beyond me. Eternally grateful to partner. Flight schools "There has never been a better time to train" = We have never needed your business more with rising fuel and EASA costs and the credit crunch. God almighty I feel I have made the worst decision of my life. The next person who says "Don't worry, your time will come" best be standing out of my reach. I'm "really" glad I did PPL, Hourbuilding, CPL and IR in UK, at obscene prices. Airlines could not care less.

[jezbowman]

jezbowman - I commend your well planned, measured approach. It is exactly what I advocate. I cannot think of a better plan or a better way of illustrating the reality of my advice. Thanks.

Au contraire WWW, thank you. :ok:
I just wish a few more would listen to you. :sad:

wangus - is it not early days to regret your decisions? Did you not get your ticket only two months ago? I know little, but I suspect that it could take longer than two months to find a first job in the current market. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[expedite08]

WWW does make some good points, albeit we dont want to hear it, but it is reality! Good job WWW. I'm going to train slowly throughout this summer, got the ME ma IR left to do. Why rush! Plus I can enjoy some nice summer flying with family and freinds etc! Oh and also have job to keep my head above the parrapet!

[bajadj]

foundation degree = gold plated necklace.

ie. not a degree, not even nearly a degree....worthless.

[Adios]

Saccade,

My tongue was firmly in cheek when I wrote that one doesn't check Notams 18 months in advance. If you think you can predict the industry 30 years in advance, you are in the wrong business. You'd make a killing on Fleet Street. That was precisely my point though, nobody knows what the market will be even in 18 months, as that is the nature of volatile times. By all means, sit on the sidelines given the current conditions, but when you do jump into the game, do it with a game plan that would work even if the economy is the worse possible. If the market is so good that 95% are getting a job in 12 months, why should anyone throw caution to the wind thinking they'll beat the odds?

One checks the Notams to inform their flight plan. It doesn't mean they cancel the flight, sometimes they just alter the route. The trick is to plan for the worse and if it turns out better than you planned fro, count your lucky stars. This applies regardless of the state of the economy.

[BerksFlyer]

foundation degree = gold plated necklace.

ie. not a degree, not even nearly a degree....worthless.

That is correct. I'd be very careful if I were you F/O UFO, you sound like you've been sucked in by the marketing good and proper.

[saccade]

Adios, there is no need to talk down on me. The 30 years figure was not in relation to the state of the economy, but in relation to energy prices. If I hear Boone Pickens and Warren Buffet saying that there is a problem with future oil supply's, I tend to take them serious. Since you seem to be confident about the future of aviation, I was wondering what scenario that will be. Hence my question about supply's and alternative's.

It has really nothing to do anymore with doom saying or conspiracy theories. We can all see how damaging $100+ oil is for the aviation industry, and it is probably only the beginning.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099&sid=aSW7U1j2_ssk&refer=energy

and

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTsRVnVao4eo&refer=home