Classic decisive forecasts....

[Robbo0885]

Hi all,

Was wondering if anyone could shed an opinion on this classically decisive forecast from the MetOffice:

Tomorrow I am due to fly my QXC (that has been cancelled pretty much every week since mid Jan!) at Dundee, 9:00am. Now, MetOffice generic 5 day forecast for Dundee tomorrow (updated at 3pm today) has very good viz listed pretty much all day, with sunny intervals, and the first mention of showers at 13:00, long after I'm back on the ground feeling pleased with myself.

However, the long TAFs for Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Glasgow are all showing TEMPOs or PROB40s of 4000m BR -SH/DZ something along that lines for most of the day.

MetCheck is forecasting Moderate chance of fog in these areas at 9:00am, along with sleet at Dundee.

Anyone want to hazard a guess as to what on earth the eather will do in 16 hours time? Are the aviation long TAFs and generic main MetOffice forecasts usually so different? (V.Good viz on generic vs. 4000 BR in long TAFs covering same area)

Thanks for any opinions!
(And I expect at least one "Welcome to aviation!" type remark, and yes, I have passed my Met exam!)

[IO540]

One look at the MSLP chart shows an occluded front hanging over the area.

This means it will be horrid (low cloud, rain, etc) but you might get lucky because this is fast moving weather and there might be a gap in it, right when you need it.

The complicated pattern (do have a look at the MSLP chart) also means the conditions cannot be forecast with any accuracy, especially w.r.t. when things will happen. I am not a forecaster but if I was, I would forecast a PROB30 of everything possible and one of them is sure to happen ;)

Whether one would send off a student pilot on a 150nm x/c flight in this, I don't know...

[SkyCamMK]

Your club flying orders book will probably have a page relating to QXC weather and certainly for ppl training flights. What you need is a largely risk free and pleasant, memorable flight. Current forecasts are likely to be erring on the side of caution. Be patient, you will enjoy the flight more if you have dealt with some of the more worrying aspects of low hour solo flight. All the best for now. I have 3 students in the same position as yourself and I am 200 miles further south.!