News of rumoured extreme low pressure. 940mb. [Archive]

fc101

8th Mar 2008, 05:59

Quote:
rubik101News of rumoured extreme low pressure. 940mb.
...
gross-wind landings,
...
"Gross-wind landings"??? Not sure this would be welcome in the cockpit!

:-)

On one of my first x-wind landings (not quite 55kts and gusting but enough for
an inexperienced E145 F/O) I was very proud and happy that my captain allowed/gave me the chance to land the thing. OK, so it wasn't the best - I was more than a little nervous and the approach wasn't as smooth as it could have been. At one point I make a slight overcorrection and at that point said captain farted - long, loud and the unmistakable smell of fear.

Nothing more was said until we parked at the gate when captain apologies; C/C came in to cockpit and remarked that after that approach the cabin smelt the same too...

sandbank

8th Mar 2008, 06:14

Low barometric pressure? My tip is always give the screen a little tap before you land

BEagle

8th Mar 2008, 08:09

Oh 'ing great - I'm supposed to be flying from BHX-DUS on Monday....:hmm:

However, the Met Office is rather good at being somewhat alarmist these elf 'n safety, ambulance-chasing lawyer days, ever since it totally porked up forecasting The Great Storm, so I am taking this forecast with a pinch of salt right now.

I doubt whether the gushing weather-wenches on TV can provide anything more accurate before Monday.

blue up

8th Mar 2008, 08:52

Getting back to Cardiff at just before midnight on Sunday. Waterproof trousers and loose wellies are in order, methinks!

rightbank

8th Mar 2008, 09:05

I'm Glad i'm rostered for the simulator Monday / Tuesday

Don't worry. Strong winds can be programmed in for you. Would 100kts straight across the runway be ok?

llondel

8th Mar 2008, 09:21

I doubt whether the gushing weather-wenches on TV can provide anything more accurate before Monday.

Looking at the surface pressure forecast sequence, I'd say they'll have a reasonable idea on Sunday when the particular area of low pressure that's supposed to cause the problem is predicted to form.

They'll have a reasonable idea - they have their model with all its chaos theory and the sim gets run repeatedly with slightly different initial conditions. If they all tend to converge on the same answer then they'll claim it as the forecast, if the sims all diverge then they usually just declare the weather as unsettled without predicting anything.

By Wednesday we'll have the answer.

Maude Charlee

8th Mar 2008, 09:37

Standard Belfast day - what's all the fuss about? :}

PA-28-180

8th Mar 2008, 11:33

For the record....where I'm at, a 940MB LPA is known as a..........
TYPHOON!!!! :eek:
Good luck over there!

nebpor

8th Mar 2008, 12:02

Ok, I am now officially "looking forward" to my Glasgow->London City Airport flight on Monday morning.

Still, it's at 8:30am so we're hardly the first plane of the day - the pilots will know what to expect.

Best thing is, I understand we wouldn't even be in the air if this was worrying the airline, so if my flight goes ahead, I'm going to make sure I enjoy the experience - coming into LCY as PAX is as close as I'll get to landing on a carrier :E

Rob Courtney

8th Mar 2008, 12:05

Parents are on a cruise leaving Southampton on Monday:yuk: And you thought it was just you guys who would be having an interesting time :oh:

connies4ever

8th Mar 2008, 12:51

You tend to get more snow when the atmosphere is on average _warmer_, not colder. Warmer air can support more absolute moisture, and then when the air cools even slightly the moisture falls out massively as snow.

I'm right next door to Ottawa and it's pretty severe here. We had 25cm Wednesday as well. Most of my spare time is spent shifting snow about. :*

Not Long Now

8th Mar 2008, 13:16

Suggest those of you in the hold at BNN keep a good look out below around late morning when the transatlantics start rolling. Good old US crews the favourite for climbing to FL still on the QNH.

Ops! I did it again

8th Mar 2008, 13:28

Im more worried about a Truck blowing over on top of me car driving into work than Operating in such Winds...

Hopefully it'll be straight down the Runway for most of us...

Keep your wits about you, keep the girls strapped in and take plenty of extra Fuel!

Be Safe guys. :ok:

Airways B

8th Mar 2008, 13:37

Hmmm, perhaps my Qualifying cross country trip on Monday will be a little delayed!

green granite

8th Mar 2008, 13:58

All this huffing and puffing from the met office with severe weather warnings covering the whole of England, yet when you look at their forecast for Monday for Heathrow for example the wind speed is given as 34MPH which is less than gale force. The only serious winds would appear to be likely in Devon and Cornwall. up to 61 MPH which is force 10, and Wales up to 45MPH, force 8 Higher in gusts of course.

ACARS

8th Mar 2008, 16:54

Who recons the following will happen?

(a) the low pressure will deepen but drift north of UK with no effect on mainland or
(b) the low pressure won't deepen?

I'm very impressed if they get it right. Any weather experts out there who can shed any light on how they are predicting this. I know computer models are predicting this, but surely you have to feed in information in order for output to be 940mb depression?

Speedpig

8th Mar 2008, 16:59

Day off on Monday.
Shall I charge up the camcorder battery?

Good luck wherever you are.

Julian Hensey

8th Mar 2008, 17:51

http://lh6.google.com/julian.hensey/R9LiaO_LuAI/AAAAAAAAAK0/guneZrZk6sc/s800/1.GIF

I am interested in the change of forecast. Both charts show midday Monday - the top one is for the forecast 60 hours before the time, and below is 48 hours before the time. It does appear not much difference forecast. But centre looks around 952mb from my calculations...

http://lh3.google.com/julian.hensey/R9Ljqe_LuBI/AAAAAAAAALA/ZrQ7R5jW_7k/s800/2.GIF

cldrvr

8th Mar 2008, 19:28

I just got called for a possible trip out of MAN on Monday, flying an airplane that does NOT like crosswinds. I must remember to charge the camcorder battery and pack my wellies.

rubik101

8th Mar 2008, 19:53

In my list of possible events for the expected Low Pressure, I chose 'gross wind' as it seems to fit nicely.
I had thought I was on standby on Monday but now I see I have an early start, four leg rotation. I guess someone reading this thread did the sensible thing and called in sick for Monday! I wonder who I can blame for that?
My camcorder is fully charged. I only hope that I don't end up the subject of the next one minute judder on You Tube. Having said that, some of those one minute judders on some other sites can be quite entertaining!
I suspect that, like other events in the past, this might well amount to nothing more than a storm in a tea-cup. Most of the disastrous events in recent years have not been predicted and many of the forecast events have turned out to be a damp squib.
I will keep my fingers crossed for the latter and quiet landings on Monday.

BAMRA wake up

8th Mar 2008, 20:07

This is as raw as you'll get - comparison of the various model runs.
Click 'Suivante' to work forward to Mon/Tue,

http://meteocentre.com/models/compar_models.php?area=eur&lang=fr&run=00

ABO944

8th Mar 2008, 20:17

My wife has a built-in barometer .... she always has a headache when low pressure is on the way .... hang on a minute, she always has a headache :}

The late XV105

8th Mar 2008, 20:19

I'm SLF BHX-DXB on Monday en route to CMB. Let's see if the forecast is wrong or if eleven years of very frequent international air travel without a single missed meeting is about to end with a cancelled departure.

rampman

8th Mar 2008, 21:36

so glad i am of mon-tue as i can see a lot of damage hapening at MAN the place is falling apart as it is without any help from strong winds.

can se some aircraft going for a spin on the apron on monday and not under there own power
think i will go and have a pint at the A.P.H and watch the days fun

:ok: rampman

C-dog

8th Mar 2008, 22:20

Did some circuits in a Cessna 150 once at Longside where the QNH was around 945, off my altimeter scale. Twas flat calm so I reckon I was close to the 'X' shown on the synoptic charts. And some time later I had a bimble around the same morning as the English 'hurricane' but I was in a Cessna 172 by then, could handle it better than a 150!

Good luck to you lot who do it for a living and hope that 'X' coincides with localiser established.

daelight

8th Mar 2008, 22:30

Is 940mb 'extreme' or is that how it has been quoted by the hysterical media?

Going from all the forecasts, and adding some smart-arse comment I would say SW Ireland is going to get quite a battering, along with Irish Sea and SW England (F10 - F11) Sunday night - Monday morning. So far as mainland England goes in particular, F8 for a time between 0600 - 0900 Monday is most likely the highest number and from the South. After 0900, winds turning West, South West and dropping F5 - F6... The future may prove me wrong of course, but why not throw in some sensible numbers to mull over before the 'extreme' breeze ruffles the wingtips?

I'm flying LHR - NRT on Monday so here's hoping these numbers get to the right 'person' , 'persons' or 'things' who have a say in such matters :ok:

Doors to Automatic

8th Mar 2008, 23:39

Can someone with a video camera get over to BHX on Monday - 35kts straight across! :p

Donkey497

9th Mar 2008, 01:24

As the folks at the Met office are also promising the potential of a fair dump of white stuff over Scotland from the early hours of Monday morning on until that evening, I look forward to getting to my EDI-LGW 10 a.m. and my subsequent LGW-IAH post lunchtime.

AltFlaps

9th Mar 2008, 07:56

Forecast for late tomorrow morning at BHX is now 170/35G60 ... for once its reasonably in line with the tarmac - well be rough as hell though !

EMA for the same period is forecasting 170/35G60 straight across ...

Worst I've seen forecast for tomorrow is Shannon gusting 70

BAMRA wake up

9th Mar 2008, 08:11

Hmm... a forecast is only that - a forecast, not a prediction

Not looking quite so tight on the UKMO MSLP charts now after 00 UTC Monday,

http://www.metbrief.com/EGRR.html

Here's hoping for a non event!

Cactus99

9th Mar 2008, 08:45

Seems like a non event already, if the worst is 60 knots (gusts). This wind speed is fairly normal during winter time in the northern and western isles UK and doesn't really stop a lot of things happening.

Could cause a few probs at EMA though!! :}

Safe landings...

BigginHillBoy

9th Mar 2008, 09:02

Sounds like standard day at a place called BIKF (Reykjavik) during winter time.

Happy landings

SWBKCB

9th Mar 2008, 09:30

Apologies for the SLF question - understandably most of the comments on this thread relate to landings but what is the impact of cross winds on take offs?

XCweather is showing 30mph from the south east at NCL for 06.00 tomorrow morning, so straight across the runway.

Is this likely to have an impact on departures at this peak time?

Bearcat

9th Mar 2008, 10:19

gusting 38kts fis max x w/c for a 320 so you'll be fine.....737 should be ok too. ISObars not as tightly packed as forecast.....it'll be sporty all right but very doo-able.:ok:

BEagle

9th Mar 2008, 10:27

SWBKCB, basically the problem on take-off is that the aeroplane will try to weathercock into wind before it is travelling fast enough for the rudder to be effective - so the pilot will need to rely upon nosewheel steering early in the take-off roll - and that has limited authority as speed increases. The skill comes in transferring smoothly from nosewheel steering to rudder during the take-off roll.

For that reason, I always chose a full power take-off in strong crosswinds to minimise the time on the runway.

Another problem is that the into-wind wing will try to lift in a strong cross-wind; this can be worse in swept wing aeroplanes if the pilot needs to use a lot of rudder quickly in the downwind direction to counteract an unexpected gust causing weathercocking. So in conventional aircraft, a significant amount of into-wind control column deflexion is also needed, which will change as the aircraft acclerates.

All-in-all, there will be a fair bit of fancy footwork and skilled coordination going on during a crosswind take-off! Then, when the aeroplane becomes airborne, the pilot has to turn the aircaft into wind to maintain the required track as well as coping with turbulence before the autopilot can be safely engaged. Perhaps more of a challenge in conventional aircraft than in 'fly-by-wire' Airbus aircraft whose flight control computers assist the pilot extremely well as soon as the aircraft becomes airborne and the 'control law' blends from 'ground' to 'normal' flight in the first 5 seconds of flight.

However, the crosswind limit takes into account handling by an 'average' pilot - so you can rest assured that if the wind is less than the limit, conditions will be more demanding than on calm days, but not impossibly so.

I note that there are already differing opinions on various met websites regarding the threat posed by tomorrow's weather - fingers crossed that the lurid picture being painted by the BBC will turn out to be somewhat exaggerated!

ratarsedagain

9th Mar 2008, 10:31

TAF
TAF EGLL 090850Z 091019 24010KT 9999 SCT035 PROB30 TEMPO 1016 5000 +SHRA BKN020CB=

TAF AMD EGLL 090742Z 091212 25010KT 9999 SCT025 TEMPO 1219 7000 SHRA PROB30 TEMPO 1218 4000 +SHRA BKN014CB BECMG 2201 18010KT BECMG 0104 16022G35KT 7000 RA BKN014 TEMPO 0408 16035G55KT 4000 +RA BECMG 0710 21020G32KT 9999 NSW SCT025 TEMPO 0812 21028G48KT 4000 +RA PROB30 TEMPO 0812 TS BKN020CB=

Should make it sporty for the early morning arrivals!!!!

radar707

9th Mar 2008, 10:42

Not quite so bad as expected at EGBB then, more or less straight down 15.

Lord Flashhart

9th Mar 2008, 10:44

BAMRA

A forecast is a prediction.

corsair

9th Mar 2008, 10:47

Well it will hit us tonight here on the western coast of Ireland. So I will give you breathless minute by minute reports of the drama and destruction. I'm looking forward to heading down to a point overlooking Galway bay at high tide. It is always a spectacle. It's an even better spectacle from inside a coffee shop on the prom.

It's a beautiful day here so far, mild and sunny, despite all the showers showing up on radar. We are just getting sprinkled occasionally.

The calm before the storm:)

I do think the British met office and the BBC weather people are overplaying it a bit. The old 'Don't worry there won't be a hurricane' comment is ingrained in the folk memory of the forecasters. So they make sure to build it up every time something more than a zephyr stirs the leaves on the trees.

In contrast the Irish met office are practically laid back about it. This is their latest:

Today
Most of the showers today will be over the western half of the country, with hail, thunder and sleet mixed in. Otherwise the day will be bright and fairly sunny, but rather cold and breezy with highest temperatuers of 7 to 9C.

Tonight
Becoming very wet and very windy this evening and tonight. Lowest temperatures of 4 to 7C.

Tomorrow
Further outbreaks of heavy rain tomorrow and still very windy.

That's it???? Becoming very wet and very windy? It's always like that round here.

glider12000

9th Mar 2008, 11:00

I`m working in the back and have an LGW-NOC-LGW.

Should be an interesting landing in NOC!

Maude Charlee

9th Mar 2008, 11:03

Ah, but the wind always blows in Galway. I'm sure I flew in last year and was overtaken by a man on a horse - 95kts headwind component at 2000'. :}

ManofMan

9th Mar 2008, 12:01

What you have to remember here is that since the farse of 87 the british media and met office have always over-played any weather situation that is out of the norm, beit fog, snow, wind or rain.

The way they get away with this is that they tell joe public to batten down the hatches as on this occasion damaging winds will hit the U.K. When these damaging gusts hit and basically rattle a few crisp packets on the floor everydoby gives a big sigh of relief that nobody gets hurt and travel caos is kept to a minimum.

meanwhile anybody in the Industry has already looked at the tafs and realised how much of a over ramp this is...for example......

EGCC 091018Z 091818 21010KT 9999 FEW025 BECMG 2124 18020G30KT
BECMG 0003 15032G45KT TEMPO 0207 4000 RA BKN010 BECMG 0709
20012KT BECMG 1113 12015G25KT TEMPO 1118 3000 +SHRA BKN012CB
BECMG 1417 30015G25KT=

so gusting 45 kts for a 7 ish hour period......aint that bad...but saying that, it is across the runway and with rain forecast...might be interesting with the effect of olympic house at EGCC......but still nowhere near as bad as the hurricane like winds that the BBC are saying will relocate me from Manchester to Hull overnight !!!

Doors to Automatic

9th Mar 2008, 12:12

Out of interest why would Olympic House (which is to the right of 23R centreline) come into play when the wind is from the left of the centreline?

BEagle

9th Mar 2008, 12:46

Weather guessers are still weather guessers - they just make more inspired guesses these days!

Bring back beetles and fir cones!

I shall see whether the cows are lying down later today....;)

green granite

9th Mar 2008, 13:50

PKPF68-77 The problem is that every time we get a severe weather warning and all we get is a few gusts that do little harm the more likely we are to then start to ignore them as being the usual over the top hype so that when they really do mean it we all don't take any notice of it.
As I see the situation at the moment, it's the western part of the UK that is going to get strong winds, the Eastern side is just going to be a normal windy winters day.

In fact Wed appears to be worse for the East than Monday does.

merlinxx

9th Mar 2008, 14:16

G G check the EGKK 091818 TAF a few interesting tempos there.

green granite

9th Mar 2008, 15:20

G G check the EGKK 091818 EGKK is in Southern England I was suggesting that the east (apart from the coast) was not going to see much wind

For those who haven't found this site It's very useful, just hover the mouse over the arrow of interest and it gives current wind speed, left click and it gives winds for the next 5 days for that location.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Chequeredflag

9th Mar 2008, 15:38

Thanks for the link - as a lowly PPL, it's most useful

kpd

9th Mar 2008, 16:33

Presume your professional opinion is that there will be no disruption for flights across the Irish Sea tomorrow. Minor event on in Cheltenham called the races!!! Should make it interesting for the rotorheads though!!

BAMRA wake up

9th Mar 2008, 17:56

Well, you can see it developing now in this animation (Sunday 6pm), rather impressive cyclogenesis,
http://www.sat24.com/frame.php?html=zoom&xas=87&yas=85

AFAIK this is the only close to realtime MSLP analysis chart for the N Atlantic - plotted metars, ship and buoy reports, (there's a time lag on the MO ones):
http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?hour=0&lang=en&map=AtlN

Witraz

9th Mar 2008, 18:20

25 years ago based in Shetland the regional setting was 927 mb which was fun as the altimeters only wound down to 945 mb. Scatsa ATC used the old airforce QNE method to overcome this, (well Wally was ex Lancasters WW2). The water in Lerwick harbour was 1 metre higher than normal. Everything was so still it was eiry. Not to worry the next day the low began to fill and we were back to the normal............................gales.....lowest pressure I have come accross

zed3

9th Mar 2008, 18:27

OK , pundits ... so what is your forecast for the southern North Sea , tuesday evening , between Rotterdam and Hull . One is on the ferry to The Island , that night .

A2QFI

9th Mar 2008, 18:30

all is revealed at

www.xcweather.co.uk/

No wind over 30 mph between midday and midnight, at a buoy off Harwich. Cant get into the Dutch end of your trip!

ground_star

9th Mar 2008, 18:36

Maude Charlee: (http://www.pprune.org/forums/member.php?u=93186)
Standard Belfast day - what's all the fuss about? :}

Aye!! Nothing short of standard around these parts ;)

NickBarnes

9th Mar 2008, 19:03

Altough it does sure look impresive on the satellite image:ok:

CorkEICK

9th Mar 2008, 19:09

CORK at 1830Z

EICK 091830Z 19011KT 150V240 9999 SHRA SCT015CB BKN019 BKN070 05/04 Q0987 BECMG 17030G50KT 4000 BKN006

At present time 1900z gusts of 30 kts recorded

Captain Planet

9th Mar 2008, 19:25

EIWF(WATERFORD) LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 091600/100100 WIND 25018KT
BECMG 1719 21018G30KT BECMG 2023 17035G55KT VISIBILITY 9999 BECMG
2124 3000 WEATHER SHRA BECMG 2124 RA CLOUD SCT018CB BECMG 2124 BKN005
OVC012 CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL=

Interesting for RE's final arrival at 2225 tonight!!!

CP.

mysteryshopper

9th Mar 2008, 19:34

Interesting background reading on this subject is available here -

Instrument Pressure Settings in Conditions of Abnormally Low Atmospheric Pressure 5 (P47)/03

http://www.ais.org.uk/aes/pubs/aip/pdf/aic/EG_Circ_2003_P_005_en.PDF

Cheers,

Mystery Shopper

daelight

9th Mar 2008, 19:35

CaptPlanet -> how about arrivals to EIKY?!!

Fly380

9th Mar 2008, 19:38

Pretty colours

http://www.pilotfriend.com/av_weather/eurocasts/span_meteostat.htm

corsair

9th Mar 2008, 20:38

Breaking News: West coast of Ireland: Check the current radar image as of 20:39 Sunday Very impressive, lots of pink in it. I haven't seen a radar image that impressive for a while.

I ventured out to check out current conditions, well to get a bottle of wine and a Chinese. I felt like Captain Scott or should it be Shackleton, after all he came back. Wind is getting up now, pretty gusty, estimate gusting thirty knots or so.

This will be fun:)

Sailor Vee

9th Mar 2008, 21:02

Local pressure now 990 Mb, was 1008 at 3 p.m.!! Wind is starting to build and rain has started.

Ringway Flyer

9th Mar 2008, 21:06

Another useful wx site is:-

http://fly.dsc.net/u/Map

Apart from current METARS and TAFS, it is based on Google mapping, so has (old) satellite views too.
Looks as if the low will be more or less over MAN tomorrow A.M. Be interesting to see if it it goes all calm for a while....

billy74

9th Mar 2008, 21:26

listening to live atc at cork,controller reporting qnh 974 winds gusting 35knts!

corsair

9th Mar 2008, 22:15

Just listened in on EINN, they are reporting 150/36 gusting 45 as at 22:08.

They appear to be diverting people to Cork because of the crosswind. and were estimating a 2 hour delay before the wind backs sufficiently.

Well it's started already.

BELHold

9th Mar 2008, 22:19

Looks like two FRs diverting from SNN to ORK, wondering if this is a wise choice given the conditions at ORK, much more tropical at DUB.

160tothemarker

9th Mar 2008, 22:22

EINN on liveatc is worth a listen at the moment

Several Ryanair flights holding at Clonmel for the last 30 minutes or so. Two more on the way behind as well.

Shannon weather is giving max gust of 48 knots currently, straight across the runway. Cork is even windier but straight down Runway 17.

Miserable conditions, I don't envy anyone out flying this evening.

My guess is we'll see a few Dublin diversions pretty soon.

corsair

9th Mar 2008, 22:24

Yes, Dublin was only reporting 180 17 knots and they have the use of runway 16. Even if it gets worse in Dublin at least it will be in line with the runway.

The current radar image shows that most of Ireland is under the rain now except the extreme east coast.

The next time anyone slags off airline pilots as mere 'glorified bus drivers'. Remind them of nights like this. A lifetimes salary is earned when the weather is sporty.

Blues&twos

9th Mar 2008, 22:50

EINN 092230Z 14034G44KT

Nothing much here in South Oxfordshire..yet. Liveatc makes interesting listening.

pulse1

9th Mar 2008, 23:06

If anybody wants to watch the live wind in Poole, this is quite a good site:

http://www.pooleyc.co.uk/cms/index.asp?dir=101&Page=Live+Weather

I just watched the wind rise from about 20 kts to 35 kts at 11:00 pm.

I wish a few airfields would have websites like this one.

Kestrel_909

9th Mar 2008, 23:18

Hold on to your hats, it's coming.

EINN 092300Z 15027G46KT 7000 -RA FEW014 BKN021 OVC040 06/05 Q0962 TEMPO 15030G50KT 4000 BKN010=
EINN 092230Z 14034G44KT 6000 -RA FEW014 BKN021 OVC027 06/05 Q0965 TEMPO 15030G50KT 4000 BKN010=
EINN 092130Z 14034KT 8000 -RA FEW014 SCT021 BKN040 06/04 Q0970 TEMPO 15030G50KTS 4000 BKN010=
EINN 092030Z 14026KT 9999 -RA FEW023 BKN040 BKN080 06/04 Q0975 BECMG 15030G45KT=
EINN 091900Z 15017KT 9999 FEW026 OVC070 06/02 Q0982 NOSIG=
EINN 091830Z 16017KT 9999 FEW030 OVC090 06/02 Q0984 NOSIG=
EINN 091730Z 17012KT 9999 FEW020 OVC130 06/01 Q0987 NOSIG=

EICK 092300Z 17026G41KT 5000 RA BKN007 BKN090 BKN170 06/06 Q0964 TEMPO 2000 BKN003=
EICK 092230Z 17026G37KT 150V210 5000 RA BKN006 BKN110 BKN170 06/05 Q0968 TEMPO 2000 BKN003=
EICK 092130Z 17024KT 140V230 8000 RA BKN008 BKN015 OVC110 05/05 Q0973 TEMPO 17030G50KT 4000 BKN006=
EICK 092030Z 18017KT 110V220 8000 RA BKN009 BKN022 OVC110 05/05 Q0978 BECMG 17030G50KT 4000 BKN006=
EICK 091900Z 19014KT 140V230 9000 -SHRA SCT012 BKN018CB BKN070 05/04 Q0985 BECMG 17030G50KT 4000 BKN006=
EICK 091830Z 19011KT 150V240 9999 -SHRA SCT015CB BKN019 BKN070 05/04 Q0987 BECMG 17030G50KT 4000 BKN006=
EICK 091730Z 20012KT 170V240 9999 FEW017 SCT036 BKN200 05/02 Q0989 NOSIG=

Remaining calm here in Belfast now, hopefully I won't end up regretting saying that.
EGAA 092250Z 15013KT CAVOK 05/M00 Q0974=
EGAA 092220Z 16012KT CAVOK 05/M01 Q0975=
EGAA 092120Z 16011KT CAVOK 04/M00 Q0978=
EGAA 092020Z 16008KT CAVOK 04/M00 Q0981=
EGAA 091920Z 17008KT CAVOK 04/M00 Q0983=
EGAA 091820Z 17007KT CAVOK 04/00 Q0985=
EGAA 091720Z 21009KT CAVOK 05/M00 Q0986=

fingal flyer

9th Mar 2008, 23:29

Corsair
Could not agree more but the bean counters will always see us as a headache.I once worked for a company where the head of accounts said they would be making money but for the pilots.Am at home tonight but to all the pros out there Iwould say be safe.

Blues&twos

9th Mar 2008, 23:32

Pulse1

I just watched the wind rise from about 20 kts to 35 kts at 11:00 pm.

If I wasn't sitting here doing pretty much the same thing, I would have suggested you got out more....

And if you live on the coast you can't even do that according to the Environment Agency.

Still disturbingly calm here.

Feux Verts

9th Mar 2008, 23:33

Fair play to the APP guy at Cork - he's working his butt off tonight. QNH is dropping every 10 minutes, 6 in the queue and landing acc reporting wind shear of +/- 15 all the way down.

:ok:

corsair

9th Mar 2008, 23:36

Wind has changed direction here in Galway now and the rain has eased as the low closes in. Imagine it will be a bit calmer now until tomorrow when the back end of the low hits us. Meanwhile all you guys east of us and in Britain, get ready it's coming. :)

You know listening to ATC live is most interesting at times. It's just a pity that you cannot listen in on British ATC because of some antiquated laws. That would be fascinating tomorrow.

BAMRA wake up

9th Mar 2008, 23:42

Looks as if the worst of the crud is east of you now corsair,

http://saturn.unibe.ch/rsbern/noaa/dw/realtime/current/n1bcurr.jpg

Brief dry slot and then the CBs arrive - have fun!

corsair

9th Mar 2008, 23:46

Yes indeed, glad I'm not flying until Thursday earliest.

pasoundman

10th Mar 2008, 00:41

Ok, it's past midnight here 20 mi N of London and my roof isn't about to be blown off, my chimney isn't about to collapse etc etc.

The windows aren't even rattling ! They were last night though.

Did the forecasters screw up again or is all hell about to break loose ?

robin

10th Mar 2008, 00:43

My brother has justphoned me from Devon and the wind is picking up nicely, with heavy rain. Could be interesting, he thinks

HarryMann

10th Mar 2008, 00:43

I think we're in the middle of it...? The quiet spot

BigBoeing

10th Mar 2008, 00:52

nothing here yet, south east. pressure dropping like a stone though.

P1GLX

10th Mar 2008, 00:53

N Wales coast at 0047 hrs 10th March wind steady 30 kts occasional gusts 45 kts, pressure 986 mb. The satellite image and animation looks interesting on the Met Office website

missterrible

10th Mar 2008, 00:59

Marathon Gas platform just south of Cork 180/63-78 (mph).

Lord Lardy

10th Mar 2008, 01:27

QNH of 957 on the northwest coast of Ireland at the moment. :eek::eek::eek:

bnt

10th Mar 2008, 01:30

It's started to get loud here in Dublin, just as I'm about to turn in, with peak winds estimated for 0300Z. Oh well... :uhoh:

Dushan

10th Mar 2008, 01:47

Corsair:
well to get a bottle of wine and a Chinese.

Well there is nothing like snuggling up with a Chinese and a bottle of wine, when there is a storm outside.

Hat, coat, on my way...

Tongkat Ali

10th Mar 2008, 01:59

Riding a white mare into the wind at typhoon strength to the tune of William Tell overture is sure exhilirating!

Enderby-Browne

10th Mar 2008, 03:55

"Good luck...We're All Counting on You."

Excellent, Tweed. Brings a grin to the face at this horrible local hour (04:53) as the wind howls outside, the rain lashes down and memories of umbrella-collapsing summers passed back home in Scotland keep flooding back in... :)

MOCA

10th Mar 2008, 03:59

At 2am today, the wind speed in Milford Haven, Pembrokeshire, hit 68mph.
Last night Gordon Brown held a crisis telephone meeting with officials from the EA, the Met Office and relevant government departments, as well as the emergency services and armed forces, to discuss the storm.
A Downing Street spokesman said: "They got the latest updates from the Met Office and Environment Agency and looked at the planned response to the incoming weather, the potential effect on the critical national infrastructure, and the contingencies in place to deal with the effects of the storm.
"They also discussed the public information campaign which is under way.
"The Prime Minister listened in on the call and made a couple of points."
Meanwhile, air and train delays and cancellations are expected.
British Airways cancelled several short-haul and domestic flights out of Heathrow Airport last night, and both Heathrow and Gatwick advised travellers to check with airlines before leaving home.

RingwaySam

10th Mar 2008, 04:25

Hi all,

SLF here but just a quick question. Looking at the Met Office it shows the Northwest of England to have a 20% risk. At the moment, out of the majour airports in the UK, Liverpool and Manchester have the lowest QNHs (967mb and 970mb) - Does that mean the weather may have come more North than expected or is it normal for this to happen in majour storms?

QNH at Shannon is now 955mb :yuk:

ACARS

10th Mar 2008, 06:01

Dublin reporting 956mb
Belfast is 954mb.
Shannon is 950mb
Cork is 951

**edited to change the rude word :=

TheOddOne

10th Mar 2008, 07:39

mb over Ireland

...except that Irish ATC (perversely in my opinion) use the phraseology 'hectopascal' instead of 'millibar'. Is this just to be 'different'?

I know ICAO approve either, but why bother???

TOO

Aluminium Importer

10th Mar 2008, 08:01

Where is Cock?

This bit added so as not to look like a pervert now that ACARS has edited his rude word.

cjhants

10th Mar 2008, 08:07

bragging again ACARS, is it in inches or CM?

Inspecthergadget

10th Mar 2008, 08:20

We're getting a number of what appear to be diversions into AMS right now.
An SAA A340, BA B747 & just seen a US Airways bus.
Any clues as to where they're all coming from?
Cheers

RingwaySam

10th Mar 2008, 08:21

Where is Cock?I see he didn't put mb on the end of that one either, not sure what he's implying :hmm:

suppie

10th Mar 2008, 08:23

From Gatwick and Heathrow as they hv holding delays due to the wind

hellsbrink

10th Mar 2008, 08:25

'hectopascal' instead of 'millibar'

Methinks it's the new-fangled metricated SI unit thingie....

doubleu-anker

10th Mar 2008, 08:36

Looking at the metar's for LHR and GAT there must be some very good xwinds there. Some attempts at landing will be very interesting to watch.

Seloco

10th Mar 2008, 08:36

Be glad you're not at sea; latest shipping forecast courtesy of BBC site:
Shannon Rockall:
Cyclonic becoming northwesterly backing southwesterly severe gale 9 to violent storm 11, occasionally hurricane force 12 in Shannon, decreasing 6 to gale 8. High or very high, occasionally phenomenal in Shannon. Showers then rain. Poor or very poor.

The latest buoy readings in that area indicate 17 metre waves at a frequency of 14 seconds - quite a ride:eek::eek::yuk:

Rob Courtney

10th Mar 2008, 08:42

Ooops, just dropped the parents off at the bus station for thier trip to Southampton, they are due to sail at 5pm tonight. I think this is the first time Ive said rather them than me!!!!!!

Inspecthergadget

10th Mar 2008, 09:01

Ta very much!!! Had a feeling it was the UK and the impending storm. In fact we just got notified of possible hefty delays in the next few days caused by low pressure.

Charley B

10th Mar 2008, 09:42

weather at LGW was horrid earlier this morning really gusty on the approach--think 2 USAir aircraft went to AMS--have been watching the landings from quite early, quite a few go arounds-a few are coming back in now as the wind had dropped that had diverted a few hours ago

Charley B

10th Mar 2008, 09:53

Really strong gusts of wind at LGW this morning and heavy rain-has just started to brighten up --- now we have have lightening flashes out to the west all good fun!
Quite a few diversions earlier,and a few go arounds-well done to the LGW tower today they have been extremely helpful!:)

Widger

10th Mar 2008, 10:26

Wessex RPS 948Hpa. Gusting 64kts at EGDR

Time Traveller

10th Mar 2008, 10:37

Please could someone post links for the youtube coverage of this mornings action, so I can post critiques from my sofa.

Chris Scott

10th Mar 2008, 10:49

Here is the sequence of METARS showing the crosswinds at London-Heathrow this morning, followed by the latest 9-hour TAF.
Remember that, due to protocols, no gust below 10 knots is reported on METARS.

Visibility on Rwy 27R is currently (1150z) affected by blowing spray in light rain-shower.

EGLL 100320Z 17020G31KT 9999 -RA SCT018 BKN025 07/04 Q0982
EGLL 100350Z 17020KT 9999 -RA SCT020 BKN025 06/04 Q0980 TEMPO 17025G35KT RA
EGLL 100420Z 17020KT 9999 -RA SCT018 BKN021 07/04 Q0978 TEMPO 17025G35KT RA
EGLL 100450Z 17023KT 9999 -RA BKN014 07/05 Q0976 TEMPO 17025G35KT 4500 RA
EGLL 100520Z 17020G31KT 9000 RA SCT016 BKN020 07/05 Q0974 TEMPO 17025G42KT 4500 RA BKN014
EGLL 100550Z 17023G34KT 8000 RA BKN016 07/05 Q0973 TEMPO 18026G44KT 4500 RA BKN014
EGLL 100620Z 17025G35KT 6000 RA BKN015 BKN023 07/05 Q0971 TEMPO 17030G45KT 4500 BKN012
EGLL 100650Z 17023G33KT 6000 RA FEW016 BKN022 07/05 Q0971 TEMPO 17026G43KT 4500 RA BKN014
EGLL 100720Z 17023KT 5000 RA BKN015 BKN022 07/05 Q0970 TEMPO 17027G43KT 4500 RA BKN012
EGLL 100750Z 17024G34KT 6000 RA BKN016 BKN022 07/05 Q0968 TEMPO 4000 BKN014
EGLL 100820Z 18025G39KT 6000 RA SCT016 BKN022 08/06 Q0967 TEMPO 4000 BKN014
EGLL 100850Z 22018KT 9999 -RA FEW016 SCT022 BKN046 08/05 Q0968 RERA TEMPO SHRA
EGLL 100920Z 24021G31KT 9999 -RA FEW015 SCT023 06/04 Q0969 TEMPO SHRA SCT020CB
EGLL 101020Z 19017KT 9999 FEW023 08/04 Q0968 TEMPO SHRA sct020cb
EGLL 101050Z 20018KT 9999 FEW028 09/04 Q0968 TEMPO SHRA SCT020CB

EGLL 101150Z 19021KT 7000 R27R/1400 -SHRA FEW018 SCT025 08/05 Q0967 RESHRA TEMPO SHRA SCT020CB

The wind has now veered and/or abated for the time being. In the absence of much information, I wonder how many diversions there have been so far...

The decision to close Heathrow Rwy 23, to enable expansion of parking stands at T4, was no doubt caused by the planning delays to T5. :{
But it looks questionable on days like this morning. There have been no north-south runways in the South of England since Thorney Island closed many years ago. But at least we had the south-westerly ones at Heathrow and Stansted. Now we only have the Stansted one.
[EGHI (Eastleigh) operators must forgive me, but I can't see a jumbo diverting your way.]

Gatwick Rwy 26 can be a nightmare in strong south-to-SW wind, because of the turbulence/windsheer in the lee of the south-side hangars. I should know - having once performed a go-around from 50ft in a DC10-30 after a flight across the pond. We went to Stansted that day, which caused chaos. [The W/V there was 230/50, but nice and steady.]

So, would Rwy 23 at LHR actually have helped this morning, with a reported W/V of 180/25-39 (at 0815z)?
On the face of it, 50 degrees off makes the 39-knot gust into a crosswind-component of about 30 knots. This is sporting, but easier than 39 knots on Rwy 27L/R.
The 170/25-35 reported at 0615z equates to a gust-component of 30 knots on Rwy 23; 35 knots on Rwy27L/R.

Not much difference, perhaps? Ah, you have forgotten that the wind usually veers at least 10 - 20 degrees in a big gust (Northern Hemisphere). As PKPF68-77 has pointed out on another thread (?), Met observers seem to be omitting these direction-changes from the METARS, except when the change is about 30 degrees (?). But even 10 degrees makes a big difference in a 40-knot gust.

The forecast suggests that the problems in the South-East may not yet be over...
You Schiphol-based pilots always had a better chance of getting home - on days like this - than the rest of us.

TAF EGLL100902Z
10 1019 20015G25KT 9999 BKN020
TEMPO 1119 20025G35KT 6000 SHRA BKN020CB
PROB30% TEMPO 1219 18028G45KT 3000 +SHRA TSRA BKN014CB
BECMG 1618 26025G35KT

Safe homecomings to everyone, and... ENJOY ! ;)

merlinxx

10th Mar 2008, 11:08

For all your SLF & sofa flyers:

www.wunderground.com just input yr airport code for latest metars & historicals. Also www.metoffice.com. Here you'll have to register for free
TAFS,METARs & charts.

Chris Scott

10th Mar 2008, 11:12

Can't give you a definitive answer, I'm afraid. My understanding has been that all the London-area TAFs are done by a Heathrow-based Forecaster, who also issues Trend (2-hour) forecasts as suffixes to the LHR METARs only.

My own comment was aimed at the ACTUAL W/Vs; not the TREND W/Vs.

Diedtrying

10th Mar 2008, 11:35

We were put on a Local stanbye (weather) this morning at 04:20 (Heathrow AFS). Just a quick note to say well done to all the jockies out there that came into LHR, in my last hour of shift we had 12 go arounds and one Australian carrier decided he would prefer to drop his pax at Stansted. :}

Chris Scott

10th Mar 2008, 12:40

Following my earlier remarks, and PKPF68-77's input, here is the latest Heathrow METAR:

EGLL 101220Z 18022KT 160V230 7000 -SHRA SCT015 BKN023 07/05 Q0965 TEMPO SHRA SCT020CB

Is the fact that they have reported the direction variability, at last, just a coincidence?

Or has our distinguished ex-aerodrome-forecaster forumite got even more influence, with the "powers that be", than we suspected? ;)

[Nice one, Time Traveller !] We're all in that category, sadly, without "a life".

fireflybob

10th Mar 2008, 12:56

[QUOTE]Remember that, due to protocols, no gust below 10 knots is reported on METARS.[/QUOTE

Not surprising really since the definition of a gust is 10 kt or more from the mean windspeed.

Thanks for posting the METARS though - very interesting!

TurboTomato

10th Mar 2008, 13:12

I work in Lingfield, Surrey - directly under the approach for runway 26 at LGW. Was horrid this morning on the way into work (5 fallen trees between Tunbridge Wells and here) then cleared and is now back to windy wet weather. Went out and got my lunch earlier and watched a couple of planes on approach, thinking they're earning their crust today! One a/c was already gear down as it was over here; normally they aren't from what I've observed before.

Chris Scott

10th Mar 2008, 13:13

Thanks, fireflybob, but not all of us carry arbitary "definitions" in our head. That's why we sometimes need guidance on same.

Looking forward to your list of definitions/protocols... :rolleyes:

EGLL 101250Z 18021G31KT 9000 -RA SCT016 BKN022 07/05 Q0964 TEMPO SHRA SCT020CB

EGKK 101250Z 19019G31KT 150V210 4000 RA SCT014 BKN020 07/05 Q0966

EGSS 101250Z 18025G43KT 6000 -RA BKN022 07/04 Q0966

EGGW (Luton) 101250Z 18019KT 6000 SHRA SCT017 BKN020 06/05 Q0963

Amsterdam-Schipol is just as windy, but they have no fewer than 3 north-south runways, in addition to all the others: -

EHAM 101255Z 17029G43KT 9000 -RA FEW015 BKN022 OVC030 06/03 Q0979 TEMPO 17025G35KT 6000

MarlboroLite

10th Mar 2008, 13:28

As Requested in post #144:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/newsid_7280000/newsid_7287600/7287630.stm?bw=bb&mp=wm&asb=1&news=1&bbcws=1

Chris Scott

10th Mar 2008, 13:33

He/she may have been "struggling", as the BBC puts it, but if so it was well disguised.

Nice one... :ok:

BOAC

10th Mar 2008, 13:38

Just to add to the fun, we have TS south of LGW

FlyboyUK

10th Mar 2008, 14:21

Great video of the LCY approach. Certainly brings back a few memories of operating in and out of there. Not sure why the Beeb is showing the clip as "Plane blown around in storms" as it seems a nicely flown stable approach and landing.

Andy Rylance

10th Mar 2008, 14:27

Oh god, this is the BBC Helicopter, i.e. we contracted for hundreds of hours of flying time per year and we don't know what to do with it so send it anywhere. It is called the "Graham Norton" contract - sign up for something, pay zillions, then realise you don't know what to do with them/it.

Mr Shoesmith - you may have the honour of ensuring my facts are straight....

WHBM

10th Mar 2008, 14:36

diddley

10th Mar 2008, 14:36

:)To see the weather live at White Waltham ten miles west of LHR log on to www.wlac.co.uk (http://www.wlac.co.uk) and hit live weather its very changeable !!

Jenson Button

10th Mar 2008, 14:48

Thanks to the LHR controllers today (both tower and radar), it was quite a handful on both departure and arrival. Just glad we got back on the deck, i don't mind sporting but today was grim.

Rgds

Jenson:ok::ok:

pasoundman

10th Mar 2008, 14:53

Well ... it's not just how low the millibars go but how far apart the *isobars* are spaced.

20mi N of London there's a modest wind. Nothing to shout about. Certainly no STORM for sure.

Graham

aviate1138

10th Mar 2008, 14:55

Where was that 05/23 runway when it was needed! :rolleyes:

Diedtrying

10th Mar 2008, 14:59

Where was that 05/23 runway when it was needed! :rolleyes:

Full of remote stands. :ugh:

Julian Hensey

10th Mar 2008, 15:02

Bristol is just coming out of the centre now which was calm, and it certainly is kicking off now as the pressure increases.

EGGD 101520Z 25031G48KT 9000 -SHRA SCT008 BKN013 06/04 Q0962=
EGGD 101450Z 26029G41KT 9999 VCSH SCT008 BKN013 05/04 Q0961=
EGGD 101420Z 25027G42KT 9000 VCSH SCT008 BKN012 05/04 Q0960=
EGGD 101350Z 25022KT 9000 VCSH SCT009 BKN013 06/05 Q0960=

bnt

10th Mar 2008, 15:14

There is a relationship between windiness and the pressure reading, but very low pressure does not guarantee very strong winds - the ultimate example being the calm in the eye of a hurricane.
Indeed - the "eye" of this was over Ireland this morning, and it was quite nice outside in Dublin: sunshine, light breeze, until roughly 2PM local. The cloud is back now, and is going to get worse, but the worst winds will miss Dublin, says the forecast. It's very different in the southwest, with Shannon not a nice place to be at the moment:

METAR EINN 101500Z 29035G49KT 9000 -SHRA FEW012 BKN017CB BKN024 08/06 Q0970 TEMPO 4000 29037G55KT

Phil Space

10th Mar 2008, 15:34

Well I'll bet that on a difficult day London City tower really appreciated having to handle a helicopter getting right in behind the arrival. Wonder if they got permssion or just asked for a transit north to south behind the landing aircraft.

Mike Smiths mob (him from Multi coloured Swap Shop)

He has the BBC contract for chopper news flying using an R44 and they have to justify the expense of the contract.

Hence lots of aerial shots in the 6/9 news:hmm:

I'm sure they would have been looking for someone to mess up an approach.
Well done to all.
(you flying in to LCY today Captphill:D)

13Alpha

10th Mar 2008, 15:54

Thanks for posting that chart PKPF68-77.

On the night of that storm our garage roof blew off and large parts of it landed in the bathroom of our house (in Gourock, west of Glasgow) - much to the consternation of my mother who was expecting a baby 13Alpha at the time :uhoh:.

Yellow Snow

10th Mar 2008, 16:40

Was on nights, LHR tower last night.

Tower swaying pretty constantly from 0300.

Between 0600 - 0700 about 2 in 5 approaches threw it away and buggered off to SS, Brussels, Amsterdam etc.

Wind was a constant 180@25 gusting 40.:eek:

Some interesting landings, but even more entertaining go arounds, watching the heavies try to turn left onto 150 with the stonking southerly wind

Suzeman

10th Mar 2008, 16:48

I wonder if it is any coincidence that as I was reading this thread, an advert for Storm Aviation popped up? :}

In Manchester still quite calm in the centre of the low with a QNH of 959 - just starting to go up from the low of 958. But the forecast is for 300/22G38kt later from 2100 so approaches will be difficult again (with turbulence from Olympic House /T1) after this morning's crosswind 140/24G39kt. :{

Here's to a safe evening

Suzeman

Sky Goose

10th Mar 2008, 17:40

Got into EGSS today, crosswind on limits for landing, and over for t\o so had to hang around for an hour and a half waiting for it to calm down. RWY 23 in use and wind was 170 29G45.

Definetly got the adrenalin going, good thing it was the captains leg!

Think the pressure was 972 when we left.

Seloco

10th Mar 2008, 17:41

Actually if you look elsewhere on the BBC website you'll find what the helicam was really snapping out of the other side, namely the traffic snarled up either side of the (closed) Dartford crossing. I'm sure too that the incredible effectiveness of the stabilised cameras they use meant that it was considerably further away from the 146/RJ than it looked!

Chris Scott

10th Mar 2008, 18:08

HEATHROW
EGLL 101320Z 18021KT 4300 +RA SCT013 BKN017 07/06 Q0963 TEMPO 20025G35KT BKN020CB
EGLL 101350Z 19017KT 9999 FEW011 BKN018 07/04 Q0962 RERA TEMPO 20020G35KT SHRA SCT020CB
EGLL 101420Z 18017G27KT 160V220 9999 FEW022 08/05 Q0962 TEMPO SHRA SCT020CB
EGLL 101450Z 19016KT 6000 VCTS FEW020CB SCT023 09/06 Q0962 TEMPO NSW
EGLL 101520Z 23020KT 9999 -RA FEW023 SCT027 BKN031 09/06 Q0962 RETS TEMPO SHRA SCT020CB
EGLL 101550Z 24022KT 9999 FEW015 SCT023 BKN031 08/06 Q0963 REDZ TEMPO SHRA SCT020CB
EGLL 101620Z 24023G34KT 9999 SCT028 08/04 Q0963 TEMPO SHRA SCT020CB
EGLL 101720Z 25024G37KT 7000 SHRA SCT022 SCT029 07/04 Q0964 TEMPO NSW
TAF EGLL 101517Z
10 1601 20015G25KT 9999 SCT020
BECMG 1618 26020G35KT
TEMPO 1622 25025G35KT 5000 +SHRA TSRA BKN020CB PROB30 TEMPO 1601 BKN012 PROB30 TEMPO 0001 4000 RA=

A trough system appears to have transited Heathrow at about 1400z - 1500z, and the winds have veered more in line with the Rwys 27L/R. The crosswinds were at their most testing , apparently, between 1200z and 1430z.
Rwy 23 would almost certainly have been in use for landing - in similar conditions - a few years ago. [And Rwy 27R for departures.]

GATWICK
EGKK 101320Z 19021G38KT 3000 RA SCT012 BKN018 07/05 Q0965
EGKK 101350Z 19022G34KT 150V230 3000 TSRA BKN012 BKN016CB 07/05 Q0964
EGKK 101420Z 22016KT 180V250 8000 -SHRA FEW009 BKN018CB 07/05 Q0964 RERA
EGKK 101450Z 20018G29KT 6000 -SHRA FEW016 SCT020CB BKN022 09/06 Q0963
EGKK 101520Z 21017KT 9999 -SHRA FEW018 SCT020CB 08/05 Q0963
EGKK 101550Z 21015KT 170V240 9999 -SHRA FEW018 SCT020CB BKN028 08/05 Q0964 RERA
EGKK 101620Z 24016KT 9999 VCSH SCT020 SCT026 BKN040 08/05 Q0964
EGKK 101650Z 24018G30KT 9999 -SHRA SCT018 BKN026 08/04 Q0965
EGKK 101720Z 23016G27KT 9999 -SHRA SCT026 BKN035 08/04 Q0966
TAF EGKK 101517Z
10 1601 20015G25KT 9999 SCT020
BECMG 1618 26020G35KT
TEMPO 1622 25025G35KT 5000 +SHRA TSRA BKN020CB PROB30 TEMPO 1601 BKN012 PROB30 TEMPO 0001 4000 RA=

The same (double?) trough system that may have cleared Heathrow at 1500z appears to have affected Gatwick between about 1400z and 1600z.
The crosswinds were at their worst between 1150z and 1450z. The wind has since veered.

Hello PKPF68-77, note that the KK/LL TAFs are identical; prepared by the same Forecaster. Hope the above comments are acceptable???

FCUK12

10th Mar 2008, 18:13

In reply PKPF68-77... the Trends for Heathrow are appended to the METAR by the Airfields Forecaster (for the SE) at the Met Office HQ in Exeter and then re-transmitted. Aviation forecasters there also add Trends to Norwich, North Denes, Penzance and Manchester METARs.

Chris Scott

10th Mar 2008, 18:29

Quote from FCUK12:
In reply PKPF68-77... the Trends for Heathrow are appended to the METAR by the Airfields Forecaster (for the SE) at the Met Office HQ in Exeter and then re-transmitted. Aviation forecasters there also add Trends to Norwich, North Denes, Penzance and Manchester METARs.
[Unquote]

When I started flying at LGW, etc., in 1967, many of the old chaps I flew with used to complain that the Met forecasters should "try looking out of the window."

These days, there wouldn't be much point... :sad:

A2QFI

10th Mar 2008, 18:34

The whole thing was a complete non-event at Cottesmore, wind not over 15 kts (my guesstimate) and some short heavy showers during the afternoon.

Anotherflapoperator

10th Mar 2008, 18:44

Bit blustery here over night but I nearly got sunburn today.

Us Isle of Man folks are missing our wind! Give it back you southerners please!

The trees are nearly falling over here without the 30mph winds to hold them up!

harrogate

10th Mar 2008, 19:08

The LCY landing was a corker. Bang on the line and a lesson in landing on a tricky approach in tough conditions.

I honestly can't believe it made the news.

Airways B

10th Mar 2008, 19:14

A prime example of how the BBC are wasting Licence payers' money by trying to make the news and not report it.

:mad:

harrogate

10th Mar 2008, 19:21

The coverage of the storm in general has been a waste of money.

It was put at the top of the news agenda when it was first forecast on Wednesday last week, and the new agencies were going to make news out of it no matter how mild or severe it was.

In the event, it was/is a typical winter storm of the type we see most years. We live in a temperate climate, for fcuck's sake.

Add it to the list of annual un-newsworthy items, along with stories such as 'Spring comes early' and 'A Levels are getting easier'.

FCUK12

10th Mar 2008, 19:33

The whole thing was a complete non-event at Cottesmore, wind not over 15 kts (my guesstimate) and some short heavy showers during the afternoon.

I guess it depends on what you were expecting. There was a gust of 41KT on the 0750Z METAR, may have been higher in the SYNOPs.

Cottesmore METAR EGXJ 100750Z 16027G41KT 8000 -RA BKN010 OVC016 05/04
Q0966 GRN=

40-50KT appears to be the approximate range of the maximum gusts at inland stations with 60-70KT at some coastal sites. Pretty much inline with the warnings/forecasts.

autothrottle

10th Mar 2008, 20:11

Morning shift this morning at LHR tower. Constant swaying and movement, bit like being on a ship really. Some superb landings this morning , the pick of which was a springbock , SAA 226 I think , at about 7.30 in an A340-600.

Well done to all you jockeys , it was fascinating to watch!!!

Autothrottle:D

eyeinthesky

10th Mar 2008, 20:36

What's all the fuss about at Heathrow?

Channel Islands today: 6 sectors. Runway 26. Surface wind 220/37G56. Gusted to 70 kts but I wasn't flying then...

Landing off the last one: 280/42 G58... the landing roll was quite short!:ooh:

chrisr150

10th Mar 2008, 23:07

What was all the fuss about then? Pax'd MAN-AMS this evening, smooth as anything for the most part really, had bumpier flights in the middle of Summer, although AMS provided its usual rollercoaster finals :)

Anyone here know what the wx was in AMS this evening? I'm wondering what the headwind component landing 18R was as it seemed a verrrryyy low speed touch down compared to normal.

Air Mule

10th Mar 2008, 23:48

Sometimes the simple methods are best.

Glad i'm not SLF for a few weeks.

http://www.missyouso.com/img/weather_forecasting_stone.jpg

Chris Scott

11th Mar 2008, 00:28

Quote from chrisr150:
Anyone here know what the wx was in AMS this evening? I'm wondering what the headwind component landing 18R was as it seemed a verrrryyy low speed touch down compared to normal.
[Unquote]

Do try to be more precise, Hoskins...

EHAM 101955Z 16022G32KT 9999 -RA FEW020 BKN027 07/04 Q0974 TEMPO 18025G37KT 6000 SHRA SCT018CB
EHAM 101925Z 15022KT 130V190 9999 -RA FEW028 BKN032 07/04 Q0974 TEMPO 18025G37KT 6000 SHRA SCT018CB
EHAM 101855Z 15022G32KT 9999 -RA BKN034 07/04 Q0974 TEMPO 17027G37KT 6000 -SHRA SCT018CB
EHAM 101825Z 15021G31KT 9999 FEW028 SCT045 07/04 Q0975 TEMPO FM1900 18027G38KT 6000 -SHRA SCT018CB

For once, Schiphol couldn't provide a runway precisely into-wind. But it probably lined up quite well during the gusts. The wind has since veered.

Quote from eyeinthesky:
Channel Islands today: 6 sectors. Runway 26. Surface wind 220/37G56. Gusted to 70 kts but I wasn't flying then...
Landing off the last one: 280/42 G58... the landing roll was quite short!
[Unquote]

Yes, it's when you have to taxi along the runway to reach the main apron exit, after landing in a heavy A320, that you know it's windy! Here's a sample of METARS:

EGJJ 102020Z 27037G59KT 240V330 9999 BKN032 09/03 Q0984 NOSIG
EGJJ 101820Z 27037G52KT 9000 FEW020 BKN030 09/04 Q0980 NOSIG
EGJJ 101650Z 27042G62KT 4000 -SHRA BKN018CB 09/06 Q0977 TEMPO 8000 NSW SCT018CB
EGJJ 101520Z 26038G58KT 5000 -SHRA BKN015CB 08/06 Q0975 RESHRA TEMPO 3000 SHRA
EGJJ 101250Z 24044G55KT 5000 -RA BKN018 08/05 Q0974 TEMPO RA
EGJJ 101120Z 23036G54KT 190V260 8000 SHRA SCT015CB BKN030 08/04 Q0975 TEMPO 5000 +SHRA BKN012CB
EGJJ 101020Z 23028G43KT 180V260 9999 -SHRA FEW015CB BKN040 08/04 Q0975 TEMPO 5000 +SHRA BKN012CB
EGJJ 100950Z 22024G35KT 9999 FEW 015CB SCT020 BKN040 08/04 Q0975 TEMPO 5000 SHRA BKN012CB
EGJJ 100920Z 24025G36KT 210V270 9999 FEW018CB SCT022 08/03 Q0976 TEMPO 5000 SHRA BKN012CB
EGJJ 100820Z 25023G38KT 220V300 9999 SCT020 BKN040 09/01 Q0975 TEMPO 5000 SHRA BKN014CB
EGJJ 100720Z 24027G40KT 210V280 9999 SCT012 BKN035 07/05 Q0975 NOSIG
EGJJ 100650Z 22019KT 190V260 9999 SCT012 BKN020 07/06 Q0974 TEMPO 5000 SHRA BKN010CB

Chris Scott

11th Mar 2008, 01:28

EGLL 101820Z 26023G33KT 9999 SCT020 BKN030 08/04 Q0967 RERA
EGLL 102020Z 26017KT 9999 SCT038 07/02 Q0971 NOSIG
EGLL 102320Z 27017KT CAVOK 06/03 Q0977
EGLL 110020Z 26015KT 9999 FEW040 07/03 Q0979
TAF EGLL 102359Z
11 0110 25015G25KT 9999 SCT020 PROB40 TEMPO 0104 6000 -RA BKN014 PROB30 TEMPO 0810 7000 -RA BKN012
TAF EGLL 102245Z
11 0606 26015G25KT 9999 BKN025 BECMG 0912 7000 RA BKN012
PROB30 TEMPO 0914 21025G35KT DZ BKN008
BECMG 1315 26025G35KT 9999 NSW SCT025
PROB30 TEMPO 1406 23025G45KT 7000 SHRA=

EGKK 101820Z 25022G32KT 9999 SCT035 BKN040 08/02 Q0968
EGKK 101920Z 24014KT 9999 FEW035 SCT040 07/02 Q0970
EGKK 102020Z 25011KT 9999 FEW045 07/02 Q0972
EGKK 102250Z 24010KT CAVOK 06/03 Q0976
EGKK 102350Z 25012KT 9999 FEW030 06/03 Q0978
EGKK 110050Z 26013KT 9999 SCT020 BKN030 07/04 Q0980
TAF EGKK 102359Z
11 0110 25015G25KT 9999 SCT020 PROB40 TEMPO 0103 6000 -RA BKN014 PROB30 TEMPO 0810 7000 -RA BKN012
TAF EGKK 102245Z
11 0606 26015G25KT 9999 BKN025 BECMG 0912 7000 RA BKN012
PROB40 0914 21025G35KT 4000 DZ BKN008
BECMG 1315 25025G35KT 9999 NSW SCT025
PROB30 TEMPO 1406 24025G45KT 7000 SHRA=

Make the most of the ridge... Safe flying again tomorrow, guys.

MAN777

11th Mar 2008, 01:36

Where can I get one of those forecast stones, does the pilot shop sell them ? :)

Chris Scott

11th Mar 2008, 01:49

Doesn't say that when the string snaps it breaks your foot - HSE banned them. :)

Dublin seems to have caught the EYE at about 10/0730z ?
955 mb [sorry, hPa] at that stage.
EIDW 100930Z 10007KT 9999 -RA FEW014 BKN022 BKN030 05/03 Q0956 NOSIG
EIDW 100830Z 04008KT 9999 FEW018 SCT060 BKN090 04/02 Q0955 NOSIG
EIDW 100800Z 08008KT 9999 FEW018 SCT060 BKN090 03/01 Q0955 NOSIG
EIDW 100730Z 11010KT 9999 FEW018CB SCT060 BKN090 03/01 Q0955 NOSIG
EIDW 100630Z 16006KT 9999 FEW017 SCT100 03/M00 Q0955 NOSIG
EIDW 100530Z 20010KT 9999 FEW017 SCT100 03/M00 Q0956

Or Shannon at 10/0630z (950) ?
EINN 100800Z 31010KT 9999 FEW010 SCT018CB BKN025 04/04 Q0954 NOSIG
EINN 100730Z 36004KT 9999 FEW014 SCT018CB BKN030 04/03 Q0952 NOSIG
EINN 100700Z 10005KT 9999 FEW014 SCT018CB BKN038 04/03 Q0951 NOSIG
EINN 100630Z 12008KT 9999 -SHRA FEW014 SCT018CB BKN036 04/03 Q0950 WS RWY06 NOSIG
EINN 100600Z 14017KT 9999 -SHRA FEW014 SCT018CB BKN033 04/03 Q0950 WS RWY06 NOSIG
EINN 100530Z 12021KT 8000 -SHRA FEW014 BKN018CB BKN023 04/03 Q0950 NOSIG
EINN 100500Z 12018KT 8000 -SHRA FEW014 BKN018CB BKN034 04/02 Q0951 NOSIG

Or perhaps BFS Aldergrove at 10/0520z (954) ?
EGAA 100620Z 21009KT 9999 BKN012 05/03 Q0955
EGAA 100550Z 21009KT 9999 SCT014 05/03 Q0954
EGAA 100520Z 15011KT 9999 -SHRA SCT011 BKN016 05/04 Q0954
EGAA 100450Z 14021G32KT 9999 -RA BKN011 05/04 Q0954
EGAA 100420Z AUTO 13021G33KT 7000NDV -RA FEW013/// SCT017/// BKN021/// 05/03 Q0955 RERA

Looking at the Belfast timing (earlier than Shannon), was it a dumbell?

The_Steed

11th Mar 2008, 02:42

Was supposed to fly ABZ - LGW yesterday morning (2 hour delay due to the wind and I guess limited slots at LGW?). When we did get to LGW I must say that they did a good job up front to get us on the deck as it was rather bumpy.

Also kudos to the crew of BA2027 (LGW-IAH) who sat and waited for a heavy shower/ thunderstorm to pass over us before we took off... whilst a steady stream of orange Airbusses took off into the gloom and a B757 kept going around...

One last thing - do you feel turbulence more or less in a big jet... I mean if it's just as bumpy in a 777 as it was in a 737 does that mean the turbulence was worse as it has to shift about a larger lump of metal?

Finbarr

11th Mar 2008, 09:00

They all weigh nothing up there!

EGNH

11th Mar 2008, 09:10

Morning All,

I flew Cayo Coco to Manchester overnight the 9th arriving Man yeterday at 7am heard all the hype about the wind and read the paper on the way across the pond, it was very very bumpy west of Ireland for about 2hrs seatbelt signs where on and cabin crew told to sit down!!

Landing at Manchester was a bit bumpy as it was a cross wind but the skipper did a good job! (Well there was 3 of them!!)

rubik101

11th Mar 2008, 09:31

Turned up for my four leg day in the windy West to be told by ATC that the airport was closed due to 'ramp danger'. Apparently caused by a person in a position of 'authority' deciding that it was too windy to move steps, baggage trolleys etc. (wind from ATC given as 190/45-65 so fair enough) Phone rang to be told by security 'comb' that it is too windy to let the rest of my crew on the ramp to get to our crew room! They might get blown away, in spite of the fact that they managed to make it from the car park without being blown away. Is the ramp windier than the surrounding area I wonder?
Sat nursing a cup of tea for 20 mins when I noticed outside was absolute calm. Stood outside the door and the wind was around 5 kts. After some persuasion, my crew were let out and we went flying.
Wind at Take off, 250/19-24 on rwy 27.
Four hours later it was down the runway at 30-35.
By the end of the shift at 1630, it was 270/14
Like I said earlier, much ado about nothing really!

TopBunk

11th Mar 2008, 09:51

Handling the 747-400 on take off from 27R @ LHR between 1200 and 1400 hrs (don't want to be too specific:}) was quite 'interesting'. The 747 has a wet x-wind limit of 25kts, and we had to wait a short while for the 37kt gusts at the stop end to subside:hmm: to accept take off clearance.

In the end it was reported as 180/24 ish but the take off roll was 'lively' with lots of variable rudder input required and holding 5 units of aileron into wind always feels strange (about 40 degrees control wheel deflection).

The 747 is great in crosswinds when landing but more of a challenge than smaller aircraft on take off due to the degree of sweep on the wing and its propensity to lift the upwind wing and the enormous surface area of the tail.

We also of course, don't get as much practice as our shorthaul cousins;)

chrisr150

11th Mar 2008, 11:26

Sorry for the simple SLF questions & possible thread drift, but would the windspeed at AMS last night be sufficient to reduce a/c groundspeed by a noticable margin?

Doors to Automatic

11th Mar 2008, 11:37

Also kudos to the crew of BA2027 (LGW-IAH) who sat and waited for a heavy shower/ thunderstorm to pass over us before we took off... whilst a steady stream of orange Airbusses took off into the gloom and a B757 kept going around...

I was on one of those 757s - g/a due to windshear warning on short-final and then a 30 min hold at Timba whilst the weather cleared. It was a fascinating experience!

ManofMan

11th Mar 2008, 12:08

Forecast changed for EGCC...

EGCC 111045Z 111818 25025G40KT 9999 SCT020 PROB40 TEMPO 1824
6000 SHRA BKN014CB BECMG 0003 25035G50KT 6000 -RADZ PROB40 TEMPO
0310 27038G65KT 4000 RADZ BKN012 PR0B30 TEMPO 0409 2400 RASN
PROB40 TEMPO 1018 6000 SHRA BKN018CB BECMG 1417 27022G34KT=

Thats some serious gusts !!!, wonder if we will get the BBC filming aircraft on approach ???? prob not....its outside London so not major news.

Not Long Now

11th Mar 2008, 12:20

BBc South news last night, film of a swaying street lamp, a reporter having difficulty being heard talking into a squall, and a woman in tears that her uninsured caravan on the south coast had flooded at spring tide with windy conditions....
Blimey, storm of the millenium or what!

Ratatat

11th Mar 2008, 12:25

Also kudos to the crew of BA2027 (LGW-IAH) who sat and waited for a heavy shower/ thunderstorm to pass over us before we took off... whilst a steady stream of orange Airbusses took off into the gloom and a B757 kept going around

Not sure if you are suggesting the orange airbusses were being a bit gung ho.

The BA2027 waited initially due to lesser x-wind limits. When the cell came overhead the wind changed sufficiently for it to go.
However ALL a/c at this time elected to sit and wait for the weather to improve.

The orange busses started departing before the BA because they were nearer the holding point with other a/c scattered everywhere!
However if the BA had been at the front of the queue it would have gone first as it had accepted the weather conditions too.

fireflybob

11th Mar 2008, 13:59

PKPF68-77 - well said!

These people need to get a sense of perspective on life.

The trouble is that the weather has become "entertainment" - look at the trend to have "actors" presenting the weather who seem to have been trained also to be politically correct - bring back Bert Ford all is forgiven!

Its all part of dumbing down - when's the last time you saw a synoptic chart on the BBC?

forget

11th Mar 2008, 14:04

The 'Daddy of All' wasted TV time was a one minute shot, and discussion, of - wait for it ------------ a garden trampoline which had been blown into a hedge. :eek:

EXLEFTSEAT

11th Mar 2008, 14:10

Don't you think the "global warming" guys are suspiciously
not heard of at these times, for a good reason? I wonder
if any "global warming" guy ever flew an airplane? But
that's JMMW.

Rob Courtney

11th Mar 2008, 14:18

Looks like we ooppp norf are going to get a battering again tonight, I await to hear news of the PM in crisis planning talks with Manchester council and hordes of Beeb reporters decending on us to watch the projected chaos oh hang on a minute thats north of Watford so it dosnt matter does it.

thegypsy

11th Mar 2008, 14:29

Rob

You are stating the obvious. Of course it does not matter being ooop norf:{

When did it ever???.

west lakes

11th Mar 2008, 14:44

a garden trampoline which had been blown into a hedge

Posted by me on 1st March elsewhere on this site

todays Gem

Quote:
MRS N STATES TRAMPOLINE HAS IMPALED ITSELF ON THE POLE PEG-METAL LEG VERY NEAR TO O/H CABLE-CUST IS STILL ON SUPPLY-FLASHES SPARKS AND FIRE REPORTED
Different :\

Didn't even make the local news - but it was in South Cumbria

Suggs

11th Mar 2008, 15:13

Lads

Can one of you clever bods tell me what the ICAO wind is. They were giving the ICAO and the Instantaneous Wind. One being self explanatory. I was a bit busy to ask at the time. Went around (EGKK) first time and straight back for another approach which we got in!

There was an American who said on the RT that he didn't want to end up on You tube so I think he diverted to AMS!

I was on a double and got hit by both fronts. The morning one was by far the worst.

Good luck for those heading for the north tomorrow

clearfinalsno1

11th Mar 2008, 15:23

...talking of recent strong winds, have these rather cheeky (understatement) conditions at Hamburg for a landing Lufthansa been mentioned yet?

Video of hairy approach at Hamburg (http://www.faz.net/s/Rub0D783DBE76F14A5FA4D02D23792623D9/Doc~E2D9F62688FC745918933A27638582D9B~ATpl~Ecommon~SMed.html ?rss_aktuell)

Admiral346

11th Mar 2008, 15:45

@suggs:

I am not sure, but I believe the ICAO wind is the average wind of the last hour...or twenty minutes...something like that, so in a storm you might get cheated a bit, if winds suddenly pick up or slow down. Good job from the tower to provide the actual, the guy or gal obviously understood something about flying...

Nic

Suzeman

11th Mar 2008, 16:14

Suggs

Taken from another thread on this forum

The normal, ICAO-standard wind that you will be passed by ATC at an airport is a rolling average over the previous 2 minutes (as a point of interest for anyone not familiar with this stuff, the value that you see on a METAR is averaged over the 10 minutes prior to the time of observation). Most airports are fitted with equipment that will give an 'instantaneous' w/v value - it's actually still an averaged value but, if I recall correctly, over 5 seconds.

Some pilots prefer the instantaneous value in challenging conditions and it is always available on request. The correct phraseology (in the UK) when an instantaneous wind is passed is 'Runway XX cleared to land instant surface wind XXX degrees XX knots'.

Hope this helps

Suzeman

EGCA

11th Mar 2008, 17:08

The BBC News footage from a helicopter of a rather good 146 landing at LCY had me falling of my chair when the reporter commented that the "pilot struggled with the controls" and "then made a safe landing"....

How the hell does the Beeb allow stuff like that to get broadcast?

EGCA

Krystal n chips

11th Mar 2008, 17:24

Erm, ITN had him "navigating onto the runway"......there again, that's ITN for you....shame the "new and improved" News at Ten isn't.... I had hopes the programme would restore itself to the past quality standards it was capable of.....alas, we get the above.

Beavis and Butthead

11th Mar 2008, 17:37

EMA looks rough tomorrow too. Similar forecasts for BHX/MAN/LBA/LPL

EGNX 111637Z 120024 25024G38KT 9999 SCT020 TEMPO 0315 27035G50KT PROB40 TEMPO 0511 28040G65KT 6000 RA BKN012 PROB40 TEMPO 1020 6000 SHRA BKN018CB :uhoh:

Chris Scott

11th Mar 2008, 18:00

Both DUBLIN and SHANNON have WSW winds gusting to 50kts. This represents 40 degrees left of Dublin's Rwy 28.

BIRMINGHAM (BHX) and LEEDS BRADFORD (LBA) appear to be the most cross-windy of the large airfields in the UK, at the time of writing, with their north-westerly runways.

The LEEDS BRADFORD TAF (see below) suggests that there will be problems for ops on Rwy 32 (the only one available) from 0300z to 1800z tomorrow (Wednesday). It is currently over 30kts component in gusts (see below).

EGNM 111650Z 24024G34KT 190V270 9999 SCT030 10/02 Q0977
EGNM 111620Z 24020G33KT 210V270 9999 -SHRA SCT020 10/03 Q0976
EGNM 111550Z 25020KT 190V270 9999 SCT018 09/04 Q0977
TAF EGNM 111522Z
11 1601 26018G30KT 9999 BKN018
TEMPO 1601 27025G40KT 6000 SHRA SCT014CB=
TAF EGNM 111637Z
12 0024 26025G40KT 9999 SCT018
TEMPO 0318 23035G50KT
PROB40 TEMPO 0310 28040G65KT 4000 RADZ BKN008 PROB30 TEMPO 0409 2400 RASN PROB40 TEMPO 1022 6000 SHRA BKN018CB=

BIRMINGHAM is already getting a crosswind component of 35kts in gusts, on Rwy 33. [Rwy 24 is only about 1200m long.] The latest 24-hr TAF (see below) has increased the wind strengths for tomorrow. The wind is now forecast to be we outside some crosswind limits, occasionally, between 0500z and 1100z tomorrow (Wednesday).

EGBB 111720Z 24016KT 9999 SCT045 10/06 Q0982
EGBB 111650Z 24021G35KT 9999 -SHRA FEW012 SCT028 10/07 Q0982 RERA
EGBB 111620Z 25018KT 9999 SCT040 12/04 Q0981
EGBB 111550Z 26020KT 9999 BKN040 12/04 Q0982
EGBB 111520Z 26018G32KT 9999 BKN040 12/04 Q0981
Corrected TAF EGBB 111536Z
11 1601 26018G30KT 9999 SCT030
PROB40 TEMPO 1601 27024G38KT 6000 SHRA SCT020CB=
TAF EGBB 111637Z
12 0024 25024G38KT 9999 SCT020
TEMPO 0315 27035G50KT
PROB40 TEMPO 0511 28040G65KT 6000 RA BKN012 PROB40 TEMPO 1020 6000 SHRA BKN018CB=

Chris Scott

11th Mar 2008, 18:16

Selection of METARS, and the current TAFs for LONDON HEATHROW [NB: most recent now at the top.]

The mini-ridge of (relatively!) high pressure provided an overnight lull of moderate westerlies, but is now history. The QNH peaked at 988 at LHR between 0720z and 1020z, with the W/V backing/reducing to 210/12. The warm front/occlusion associated with the next system arrived around midday. The marked rise in dew-point was reversed as a further trough (?) transited at about 1400z, with showery outbreaks. Since then the pressure has recovered slightly, but the wind has strengthened/veered to nearly gale-force westerly (260/29-41 at 1550z).

COR EGLL 111750Z 26030KT 9999 FEW042 12/05 Q0986 TEMPO 26028G40KT=
EGLL 111650Z 26028G39KT 9999 FEW041 13/05 Q0986 NOSIG
EGLL 111620Z 26031G41KT 9999 SCT046 14/05 Q0985
EGLL 111550Z 26029G41KT CAVOK 15/05 Q0985

EGLL 111450Z 26026G38KT 9999 SCT038 SCT044 14/07 Q0984 NOSIG
EGLL 111420Z 26025KT 9999 FEW034 SCT041 14/08 Q0984 TEMPO 26022G38KT
EGLL 111350Z 25017KT 9999 VCSH SCT023 SCT038 13/09 Q0984 BECMG 25020G30KT
EGLL 111320Z 22013KT 190V250 9999 FEW041 13/10 Q0985 TEMPO SHRA
EGLL 111250Z 24017KT 7000 -RA FEW013 SCT030 12/09 Q0985 TEMPO BKN013
EGLL 111220Z 22012KT 190V250 9999 SCT012 BKN020 10/09 Q0985
EGLL 111150Z 19011KT 160V220 9999 SCT008 SCT012 09/08 Q0986 TEMPO RA BKN014
EGLL 111050Z 20012KT 9999 -RA FEW015 BKN018 08/05 Q0987 TEMPO RA BKN014
EGLL 111020Z 21012KT 9999 BKN021 08/03 Q0988 TEMPO RA BKN014

EGLL 110850Z 24015KT 9999 FEW028 08/02 Q0988
EGLL 110750Z 21011KT 9999 FEW020 07/02 Q0988
EGLL 110720Z 24014KT 9999 FEW020 07/02 Q0988 NOSIG
EGLL 110650Z 25014KT CAVOK 07/01 Q0987 NOSIG

EGLL 110420Z 26021KT 9999 BKN043 08/02 Q0985 NOSIG

EGLL 110120Z AUTO 27019KT 9999NDV DZ FEW022/// SCT032/// BKN037/// 07/05 Q0980

TAF EGLL 111523Z
11 1601 26022G32KT 9999 SCT020
PROB30 TEMPO 1601 26028G43KT 7000 SHRA
TAF EGLL 11 1655Z
12 0024 25020G35KT 9999 SCT025 TEMPO 0004 7000 SHRA BKN014
PROB40 TEMPO 0023 23025G45KT=

Suggs

11th Mar 2008, 18:22

Thanks Nic and Suzeman,

Suggs

llondel

11th Mar 2008, 18:24

Its all part of dumbing down - when's the last time you saw a synoptic chart on the BBC?

I miss those, I could look at them and have a reasonable guess at the weather trends over the next few days. At least I can get to them on-line. The BBC even still have them on their website

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/coast/pressure/

Artie Fufkin

11th Mar 2008, 18:41

Possibly been discussed to death already but just how bad is the internet in affecting flight deck decisions?

There was an American who said on the RT that he didn't want to end up on You tube so I think he diverted to AMS!

When we arrived at AMS today the wind was 240/25G32. There were long delays for 27 whereas 18R was wide open.

I can understand a few of the heavies having flown all night over the atlantic maybe opting for a delay, but for all the rest, is fear of pprune / youtube really that bad?

Tomorrow should be fun...

duck-killedfattypuss

11th Mar 2008, 18:44

Wonder whether Chris or anyone else could explain what the "corrected" means for LHR. How come only London ever needs correcting on the Volmet? Can't think I've heard it used on any other volmet in Europe...

Cheers,

Duck

Cloud Bunny

11th Mar 2008, 19:01

Haven't got a copy of the TAF (sorry) but STN is forecasting gusts of 65knots tomorrow morning. I thought Monday was supposed to be bad!!! Oh well, it'd be boring otherwise.:E

ls_jet2

11th Mar 2008, 19:03

MAN is another one that is regularly given as corrected. Not 100% sure of the reason, could it be that the data is gathered automatically rather than by human hand and is then adjusted before transmission?

jetset lady

11th Mar 2008, 19:08

Sorry for the slight thread drift but for those of you scoffing at what you consider to be the overly dramatic news coverage of Mondays storm, then maybe you would like to see the following. These are the scenes that met me when I finally made it home from EDI. I think you'll agree, they are quite shocking!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddz9-O5FR5Q

Now back to the thread and the next, fast approaching weather front.... From what I've seen, it's not gonna make it further south than the M25 so there's nothing to worry about then! :E

P.S. No ducks were harmed in the making of this film.

EyesFront

11th Mar 2008, 19:21

Quote:
Its all part of dumbing down - when's the last time you saw a synoptic chart on the BBC?

They still have them on Countryfile... (sunday morning)

Cyclone733

11th Mar 2008, 19:48

PKPF68-77,

Two sites with forecast tephigrams:

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/cmet.html

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/profi/en/temps/temps.html

Can't tell you if the're any good

Cyclone

Chris Scott

11th Mar 2008, 19:54

Quote from chrisr150 [Today, 11:26]:
Sorry for the simple SLF questions & possible thread drift, but would the windspeed at AMS last night be sufficient to reduce a/c groundspeed by a noticable margin?

Surface W/V at 1955Z was 160/22-32. Schiphol area is very smooth, but – on the other hand – it was night-time, so you’d expect some nocturnal windshear, perhaps. My guess would be that the wind at 500ft would be about 180/40+. So the GS could be noticeably low on approach Rwy 18R.
[Particularly in a F27.] ;)

Quote from ls jet2:
Wonder whether Chris or anyone else could explain what the "corrected" means for LHR. How come only London ever needs correcting on the Volmet? Can't think I've heard it used on any other volmet in Europe...
[Unquote]
FCUK12 tells us [thanks...] that the 2-hr Trend Forecasts, still appended to some airfields like LHR, are prepared at the Met Office in [U]EXETER (like the TAFs). The observer (ATCO?) is obviously not qualified to do it.
Think what probably happens sometimes is that the METAR is broadcast before the system has tacked the TREND on to the end of it. When the omission comes to someone’s attention, the METAR has to be reissued as a “COR!”.

Quote from fireflybob:
The trouble is that the weather has become "entertainment" - look at the trend to have "actors" presenting the weather who seem to have been trained also to be politically correct - bring back Bert Ford all is forgiven!
Its all part of dumbing down - when's the last time you saw a synoptic chart on the BBC?

Agree with your sentiments, but not sure about Bert Ford - wasn't he the one who taught the padding-phrase "pushing (or any other present-participle) [U]ITS WAY" to all his protégé(e)s? **
Sends me up the wall... :ugh:
The Dumfries librarian, on the other hand, was both wacky and cerebral. Fortunately, he's been succeeded by Rob M, who always has something interesting and different to impart, usually with dry humour, even if it's only his palindromic temperatures. Also, when at her best, Helen W is the "thinking man's crumpet".

Yes, BBC wants to use my involuntary licence fee to perpetuate the chattering-class prejudice that science and maths are fringe topics, that rarely justify inclusion in their output. And, when they have to be covered, they are generally presented in an increasingly apologetic and infantile style.
[Grumps]

**[Editing] Sorry, now realise I was confusing Bert F with a more recent (also retired) head-forecaster. :uhoh:

ACARS

11th Mar 2008, 20:05

Just landed at Dublin in the Saab Loganair from City of Derry airport. After reading the METAR I can imagine that the aircraft was close to the limits (maybe someone can confirm).

Personally I had a great time and enjoyed being thrown around. Person behind me was terrified of flying. Crew did a great job of making sure she was happy.

Yesterday morning I flew Newcastle to Belfast as SLF. Quite an impressive site seeing the cloud clear overhead IOM. Landing with blue sky and light breeze.

Personally I think the media are short on stories. Nothing that different compared to previous systems that have come in from the Atlantic. I guess the forcasted low pressure got people excited.

Anyway - SLF tomorrow morning to Brussels from Dublin

EIDW 111800Z 111904 24033G60KT 9999 SCT018 SCT040
TEMPO 1904 5000 SHRAGS FEW012 BKN018CB
TEMPO 2304 26045G70KT

EBBR 111800Z 120024 24018G32KT 9999 SCT018 SCT040
PROB40
TEMPO 0207 4500 SHRA SCT009 BKN013
TEMPO 0916 26025G42KT

Ratatat

11th Mar 2008, 20:08

Suggs,

The ICAO wind is the standard wind reading you are given.
It is the 2 min average including any gusts (greater than 10 kts above the average) in the last 10 mins.
Gatwick were passing both the ICAO and instant a lot yesterday because a lot of a/c were requesting the instant wind.

Chris Scott

11th Mar 2008, 20:13

Cloud Bunny was commenting on the Stansted TAF:

TAF EGSS 111655Z
12 0024 25020G35KT 9999 SCT025 TEMPO 0024 7000 SHRA BKN014
BECMG 0305 24028G45KT
PROB30 TEMPO 0412 25038G65KT
BECMG 1214 25020G32KT=

[This one courtesy of AvBrief.]

The 65-knot gust is only a 30% probability, so all book-Nigels would ignore it for planning purposes, OFFICIALLY.

Think Rwy 23's bearing is 223(T)? If the wind veered (in the gust) to - say - 263/65, that would give a crosswind component of about 40kts. Probably won't happen. :}

Latest METAR:
METAR EGSS 111950Z 26018G28KT 9999 FEW028 SCT040 09/05 Q0986=

Captain Kirk

11th Mar 2008, 22:09

Marvellous - I finally get around to doing my IR (due tomorrow!) and along comes the worst storm for what?...almost 20 years?!!! I think a delay to Friday is on the cards! Incidentally, for those that know, AFT is as priceless as ever!

EI-ROC

11th Mar 2008, 23:33

EIDW ATC (http://www.liveatc.net/feedindex.php?type=international-eu)worth listening to at the mo', lots of go-arounds.

Dan D'air

12th Mar 2008, 01:14

Just got back, chuffed to bits that me Discus is at Beatriz's house so I will be there asap!!!

RingwaySam

12th Mar 2008, 03:59

Here comes the rest of the bad weather. Latest METARs...

EINN 120330Z 27031G50KT 9999 FEW018CB BKN040 BKN100 06/00 Q0994 NOSIG

EIDW 120330Z 26040G60KT 8000 RA SCT011 BKN018 03/02 Q0984 NOSIG

EGNM 120350Z 24026G41KT 190V270 7000 RASN FEW015 BKN020 03/01 Q0975

EGCC 120350Z 24043G54KT 9999 DZ BKN033 06/00 Q0979 TEMPO NSW

EGGP 120350Z 25041G53KT 9999 -RA BKN032 07/01 Q0979

:eek: :yuk:

groundhogbhx

12th Mar 2008, 04:17

Just got word that LPL is about to close due to the wind. Got an FCA stuck there trying to get down to BHX but we've an x-wind of 24G36 at the moment with severe turbulence in the TDZ due to the hangers :uhoh:

RingwaySam

12th Mar 2008, 04:40

TCX B752 is just inbound MAN from LPL after operating a charter to Milan - So I guess Liverpool is still open. For the time being.

fireflybob

12th Mar 2008, 07:54

Just got word that LPL is about to close due to the wind.

Why would that be?

Jonty

12th Mar 2008, 09:36

Landed at Brum last night, ATC giving 240/20G41. Fortunately I wasn't flying it!

Atcham Tower

12th Mar 2008, 13:13

Total rubbish about LPL closing; I was the tower ATCO! FOD blowing about was the only concern so we did a runway check immediately before the few movements.

FCUK12

12th Mar 2008, 13:14

Quote from Chris Scott:

Think what probably happens sometimes is that the METAR is broadcast before the system has tacked the TREND on to the end of it. When the omission comes to someone’s attention, the METAR has to be reissued as a “COR!”.

COR is automatically inserted into all METARs that are re-broadcast with a Trend appended. If for some reason the Trend doesn't get added the METAR should appear without it. Most online sources appear to strip out the COR anyway. Hope that helps.

Chris Scott

12th Mar 2008, 15:26

Hi FCUK12,

What you say makes sense, and does not contradict my main point. [Only applies to airfields that qualify for TREND forecasts.]
But your theory that the word "corrected" is removed (from the amended version of the METAR) - by whatever agency broadcasts the METARS - is not what seems to be happening in practice. This definitely applies to some agencies that present METARS on the web, and ls_jet2's comment about the London Volmet is correct (pun not intended).

It is all time-consuming, when you are desperate for an Actual. Whatever fireflybob says, you can't always get the destination ATIS in time for your descent brief, and not all our colleagues have data links like ACARS. And the ATIS rarely includes a TREND forecast, unless things have changed in the last 6 years.

Here is an up-to-the-minute example from AvBrief:
METAR EGLL 121450Z 28019KT CAVOK 11/M03 Q1005=
METAR COR EGLL 121450Z 28019KT CAVOK 11/M03 Q1005 TEMPO 28020G30KT=
METAR COR EGLL 121420Z 28023KT 9999 FEW049 11/M02 Q1005 TEMPO 28025G35KT=
METAR COR EGLL 121350Z 27024G35KT 9999 SCT049 11/M01 Q1004 NOSIG=
METAR EGLL 121320Z 28022G32KT 9999 FEW049 10/M01 Q1004=
COR EGLL 121320Z 28022G32KT 9999 FEW049 10/M01 Q1004 NOSIG=
METAR EGLL 121250Z 28022G34KT 9999 FEW049 10/M01 Q1003=
COR EGLL 121250Z 28022G34KT 9999 FEW049 10/M01 Q1003 NOSIG=

On the other hand, here are the same group of METARS from ADDS (Aviation Data Digital Service ):
EGLL 121450Z 28019KT CAVOK 11/M03 Q1005 TEMPO 28020G30KT
EGLL 121420Z 28023KT 9999 FEW049 11/M02 Q1005 TEMPO 28025G35KT
EGLL 121350Z 27024G35KT 9999 SCT049 11/M01 Q1004 NOSIG
EGLL 121320Z 28022G32KT 9999 FEW049 10/M01 Q1004
EGLL 121250Z 28022G34KT 9999 FEW049 10/M01 Q1003

You will note that for the 1250 and 1320 METARS, the TRENDs are missing; they have tried to avoid clutter, perhaps; but have either failed to receive the "CORs", or failed to use them when they became available.
The 1450z, however, has come out well.

Now, the UK MetOffice website:
EGLL 121450Z 28019KT CAVOK 11/M03 Q1005 TEMPO 28020G30KT
http://secure.metoffice.gov.uk/lib/template/spacer.gif

So the UK Met Office seems to be interpreting its own output of METARs correctly - hardly surprising?

Just copied the LHR 1450z METAR on "London Volmet Main" (135.375MHz):

"London heathrow at 1450 [U]corrected, Wind two-eight-zero degrees one-niner knots, CAV-O-K, Temperature one-one, Dew-point minus three, Q-N-H one-zero-zero-fife; Tempo- Wind two-eight-zero degrees two-zero knots maximum three-zero knots."

[Sorry, everyone, but the gales now seem to be dying out...] :rolleyes:

Suzeman

12th Mar 2008, 15:52

[Sorry, everyone, but the gales now seem to be dying out...]

Not up in the frozen norf they're not. But this won't be on the news as

1 - the budget will now grab the headlines :{
2 - all this is going on North of Watford :}

Still 270-280 gusting 40kts at MAN with windshear reported and a couple of recent g/a which got in at the second attempt. Similar speeds at present at LPL and LBA

MAN TAF shows winds likely to decrease from 2300......

Suzeman

Guzzler

12th Mar 2008, 16:08

Regarding the LPL closure - I might be responsible for the start of that rumour, after telling FCA ops that Servisair were about to run for cover and not despatch any more aircraft.

Servisair decision was fine by me because I did not want to depart for BHX with winds gusting up to 60kts across the runway. Landing at Liverpool was bad enough with the wind just 10 or 20 degrees off the runway.

And Atcham Tower if that was you on the radio my I say thank you because without your string of wind reports in the last few hundred feet we would of gone round. Cheers.

groundhogbhx

12th Mar 2008, 21:57

Guzzler, don't blame you for staying there as things were starting to move around and I wasn't looking forward to going out to see what it was!! The turbulence coming off the hangers was making landing sporting at best, saw one baby arrival that looked very close to being No 1 engine first from where I was on stand 50.

Jonty were you in the ATR? On the RT it sounded like they landed in those conditions every leg.

AN2 Driver

12th Mar 2008, 22:19

Chris,

On the other hand, here are the same group of METARS from ADDS (Aviation Data Digital Service [USA]):

it depends a bit with the US data on foreign airports. First of all, they often are quite late and secondly, it depends strongly if they get properly propagated by the GTS system. Not always the case. I know of some applications which run off the US data, their METARS are always 1 behind due to the way the GTS input gets distributed into their cycle files of which ADDS and other applications are feeding. That way it can happen very well that COR's are not present.

Some other applications have the same problem. I've been fighting this end for e.g. GTS mauled messages to be still shown, particularly African TAF's which sometimes have whole sections in gobbledegook due to lousy datalines, but I'd rather have this TAF than none at all. But quite a few databases simply kill anything missing a character or two.

Best regards
AN2

fireflybob

13th Mar 2008, 10:14

Whatever fireflybob says, you can't always get the destination ATIS in time for your descent brief, and not all our colleagues have data links like ACARS.

Chris Scott, I agree but I don't think I said this! The company I work for doesn't have ACARS (I wish!).

One of the challenges with ATIS is co channel interference, one of the most classic ones is the EMA ATIS which is blasted out by CDG (I think) such that you cannot realistically copy same until the Luton area when approaching from the south. Apparently the DOC of arrival ATIS is only around 60 nm. But the same happened at MAN some time ago and when crews started filing reports with CHIRP they eventually changed the ATIS freq!! The weather isn't the only issue, it's the runway in use which if you second guess the wrong way requires a change of set up and brief whilst descending in some of the busiest airspace in Europe - a recipe for an altitude bust maybe?

Of course in the "olden days" on first contact with LATCC as well as the inbound routing STAR etc one was passed the Runway in use at destination. Presumably this was dropped due to issues of RT congestion and controller workload etc.

Super VC-10

13th Mar 2008, 23:21

The rumor was 940mb. What is the official lowest pressure recorded? :confused:

hellsbrink

14th Mar 2008, 07:29

925.6 in Uk (1884) according to here, VC-10

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/anniversary/recordlow1986.html

Chris Scott

14th Mar 2008, 12:09

Think Super VC-10 probably wanted the lowest QFF (okay, QNH will do) in the Thread episode, hellsbrink.

Or are you being deliberately facetious? :rolleyes:

During my limited researches, the lowest reported by METARs was about 950 hPa (millibars) at Shannon on Mar10/0600z-0630z. See my post#194:

EINN 100800Z 31010KT 9999 FEW010 SCT018CB BKN025 04/04 Q0954 NOSIG
EINN 100730Z 36004KT 9999 FEW014 SCT018CB BKN030 04/03 Q0952 NOSIG
EINN 100700Z 10005KT 9999 FEW014 SCT018CB BKN038 04/03 Q0951 NOSIG
EINN 100630Z 12008KT 9999 -SHRA FEW014 SCT018CB BKN036 04/03 Q0950 WS RWY06 NOSIG
EINN 100600Z 14017KT 9999 -SHRA FEW014 SCT018CB BKN033 04/03 Q0950 WS RWY06 NOSIG
EINN 100530Z 12021KT 8000 -SHRA FEW014 BKN018CB BKN023 04/03 Q0950 NOSIG
EINN 100500Z 12018KT 8000 -SHRA FEW014 BKN018CB BKN034 04/02 Q0951 NOSIG

The above observations seem to show one of the eyes (do you agree. FCUK12 and PKPF68-77?) of the complex depression moving eastwards in transit just south of Shannon aerodrome. Note the steep rise of pressure afterwards, and the reversal of wind direction during the couple of hours' passage. For further info, including an explanation of wind speeds near deep depressions, see PKPF68-77's Post #163.

[Strictly speaking, of course, a QNH does not represent the precise notional sea-level pressure at a station ("QFF"). This is because a QNH is merely a device to ensure that an ICAN-calibrated altimeter, situated at the station, reads the correct elevation amsl if the QNH is set on its sub-scale. In a deep/cool depression, it is unlikely that the local pressure lapse-rate would conform to the ICAN (standard atmosphere).]

No need to worry, though (what do you mean; you weren't?).:ouch: In the case of Shannon, the station elevation is about 45 ft amsl, so the "error" is negligible.

Another point to bear in mind is that 950 could represent a pressure as high as 950×5, because decimal-5s of pressure are always rounded down, for safety reasons.

Hope this helps. Did anyone get a lower one?

hellsbrink

14th Mar 2008, 12:13

Or are you being deliberately facetious?

A simple case of misreading due to a lack of Earl Grey in the system, nothing more.

As far as the lowest that day, I've seen assorted figures ranging from 950 but nothing below that.

Chris Scott

14th Mar 2008, 12:52

Quote from PKPF68-77:
Pretty awesome forecasting if you know what the skills were like over 30 years ago.
[Unquote]

How true. In his day, the mid and upper-air forecasting (on which all this hinges?) was fairly hit and miss. Was once crossing Holland en-route to to Germany in a Dakota (1968), and none of our planned drifts or ETAs were making much sense at FL070. The forecat W/V in the area was about 260/30. So we used the optical drift sight to confirm the actual drift (starb'd); and stopwatch for ground-speed (TAS was 140). On that basis, we estimated the actual wind was about 310/45.

As for the (westerly) sub-tropical jet, SNAKING over North Africa in winter, the direction in the 1970s was fequently 30 or 40 degrees out. This made an enormous difference to your drift and/or GS when it was blowing at 150 kts... And the strength was equally unreliable in those days.

This may have been contributory to the shooting down of a Libyan B727 by the Israelis in about 1978. The A/C was going from Tripoli to Cairo, and completely overshot its destination, finding itself over Israeli-occupied Sinai, where the Israelis assumed it was hostile.

By the 1990s, the computer-forecast en-route winds had become uncannily accurate...