Kosovo

[BluntM8]

So, Kosovo has declared independence. Congratulations to them.

However, the Serbian govt say they "will never recognise" Kosovo as an independent state, and have the backing of Moscow.

Since Moscow holds a veto on the UN Security Council, the UN cannot recognise Kosovo either.

Therefore, if the situation deteriorates to civil war (and lets hope it doesn't) the UN cannot intervene. Therefore, and military action taken in support of Kosovo will be outwith the UN, and likely to be oposed by Moscow.

Have I got that all right?

If thats the case then on what basis could we send military support to Kosovo?

Forgive my ignorance if this is a basic question but I'm afraid I've still got a lot to learn about world politics.

Blunty

[Archimedes]

I imagine that the clamour amongst EU nations for sending military support to Kosovo will be proportional to their analysis of the probability of Uncle Vlad cutting off the gas supplies to Western Europe in retaliation...

Edit - Blunty, sorry, didn't answer the question.

You're right. Russia will veto any attempt by the UNSC to recognise Kosovo as an independent state, or to send a peacekeeping force. At the UN level, it can block reform of the security council and make sure that any plans for the EU or for Germany to secure permanent membership don't happen.

If the Russians do get awkward over this - and I suspect that they may do - there's little the EU can do. I very much doubt that the US could do much, either, given current force commitments, the lack of any obvious US national interest and the forthcoming election; I'm not certain, but I'd guess that any attempt by Dubya to intervene would cause him enormous trouble.

On top of that, South Ossetia and Abkhazia have said that they will seek independence (bad news for the Georgians), since they have a greater claim for this than the Kosovans. Also, I note that Slovakia has already said that it won't recognise Kosovo as an independent state.

[Tigs2]

BluntM8
Nice one. Please excuse me but I have copied your post to Jetblast here

http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?p=3918490#post3918490

I thought it was worth it.
Thanks:ok:

[airvlad]

Good analisys BluntM8.
I am afraid things are not that transparent in world politics, especially when those two powers are concerned and always hot Balkans teritory involved.
"If thats the case then on what basis could we send military support to Kosovo?"
Who do you mean when you say we?
Also, there was no legal or logical bases to have Kosovo occupied by NATO and UN in a first place, but it happened anyway.
This is from my knowledge of history and trends in Serbia and my research that goes beyond daily news and hearsay.
I hope people in Serbia and all involved stay safe.

[Tigs2]

airvlad

I hope people in Serbia and all involved stay safe.

Actually airvlad, I hope that all people in Serbia and Kosovo! stay safe!:mad:

[TheInquisitor]

We should do the following:

Propose Kosovan independence be recognised by the UN.

Let Russia veto it and be isolated.

Say "Putin, f**king bite me" - and sit back and see what happens.

Politics USED to involve a degree of backbone and bluff-calling. Seems that nowadays, the stage (at least in Europe) is occupied by spineless jellyfish.

Say what you like about "Dubya" and US politics - at least he has balls. Test the EU's mettle, and they are found wanting at every turn...

Incidentally, why the hell are we sticking our necks out (again) for a race of brigands and criminals who are despised by ALL of their neighbours? When everybody hates you, there is USUALLY a good reason for it....

[airman13]

And tomorrow wich county will be declared as a country?....For now I cant say anything....but it doesn't sound well for the calm in Europe, because as far as I know, the serbians have reacted and they attacked US embassy in Belgrade last night....I think they have the right to protest!

[BluntM8]

the serbians have reacted and they attacked US embassy in Belgrade last night....I think they have the right to do it!....

I disagree - unless they can claim self defence (against a building) they've no right to commit acts of violence.

Edited to add:

which county will be declared a country

No no no. Kosovo hasn't been declared anything. It has declared itself independent. That's a seemingly small but vital difference. If you believe that everybody has the right to determine their own status, then you have to be prepared to recognise their right to declare themselves an independent state.

My concern is for when the time comes that Serbia decides (or is coerced) to bring what it views as a dissident province to heel. Given the history of violence, the situation could descend into a bloodbath quickly. Furthermore, since the international community is so strongly divided on the Kosovo issue, it seems unlikely that a UN peacekeeping/peace enforcement resolution could be reached. All the reasons for which are given above.

If that happens, then it seems that we - by which I mean the UK Forces, of which I am a serving member - will be called upon to act in support of Kosovo outwith of any UN mandated action. Undoubtedly, we will so so in Coalition with the USA, but cannot rely on support from any other nations. We also can probably count on the opposition of Moscow.

So, my concerns are:

1. Kosovo could be the tinderbox which ignites a new cold war between East and West.

2. UK Forces will be commited to action in Kosovo without the support of either the UN or a coalition of nations. This will cause enormous strain on the existing assets, who, let's face it, are spread far too thinly as it it already.

3. The demands of concern 2 will lead to our withdrawal from Iraq, or possibly Afg. Thus leaving behind a shag-w@nking disaster of a mess, and leaving us open to the political flak from the USA who expect our support in that theatre - even if they don't need it per se.

Blunty

[ORAC]

Since Moscow holds a veto on the UN Security Council, the UN cannot recognise Kosovo either. Therefore, if the situation deteriorates to civil war (and lets hope it doesn't) the UN cannot intervene. Therefore, and military action taken in support of Kosovo will be outwith the UN, and likely to be oposed by Moscow.


UK Forces will be commited to action in Kosovo without the support of either the UN or a coalition of nations.

You might notice that the previous war/spat/confrontation over Serbia/Kosovo wasn't a U.N. led affair either for exactly the same reason but was a NATO led operation. I would suggest to you that NATO could be considered a coalition and will continue to meet it's current obligations.

And just as Russia or China can veto any new resolutions concerning Kosovo, the USA or UK can veto any attempt to amend or change the current NATO remit.

NATO to tackle any Kosovo violence, urges restraint (http://www.reuters.com/article/europeCrisis/idUSL1776715)

BRUSSELS, Feb 17 (Reuters) - NATO said on Sunday it would deal firmly with any violence in Kosovo after the breakaway province declared independence from Serbia and that all parties involved needed to show restraint.

The military alliance said it would continue to provide security in Kosovo, where some 17,000 troops serve in the NATO peace force KFOR.

"During this sensitive period, KFOR will respond swiftly and firmly against anyone who might resort to violence in Kosovo," NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said in a statement, urging all parties involved to exercise "the maximum restraint and moderation".

"All parties should recognise that KFOR will continue to fulfil its responsibility for a safe and secure environment throughout the territory of Kosovo ... unless the (U.N.) Security Council decides otherwise," he said. "KFOR will continue to provide security for all citizens of Kosovo, majority and minority alike, in an impartial manner, just as before," de Hoop Scheffer added.

NATO ambassadors will meet on Monday to assess the situation, the statement said.

Alliance defence ministers agreed at talks in Lithuania earlier this month that U.N. Security Council resolution 1244 would continue to justify NATO's presence in Kosovo if the ethnic Albanian majority proclaimed independence.

Kosovo declared independence from Serbia on Sunday, ending a long chapter in the bloody breakup of Yugoslavia.

[effortless]

A piece of graffiti I saw in Serbia during the conflict.

"Serpska na Tokiem"

Sorry if my transcription from the Cyrillic is inaccurate but the sentiment is clear, "Serbia as far as Tokyo."

What ever people say about each side being as bad as the other and whoever has what sovereignty, I really do understand why Kosovars want out. There was little exaggeration about the brutality of Serbia.

[EODFelix]

So Kosovo has finally declared itself independant, with support from EU and US. How does this now influence the case of Pridnestrovie, South Ossestia etc. Pridnestrovie has been a self declared republic since 1991 with all the apparatus of an independant country in place (inc currency, military, border controls etc, parliament & presidency. I guess we can now see full support for their claim coming from the EU and US.

[6foottanker]

Sounds like the Thursday War isn't so far fetched any more. And we'll be sending in troops which only exist on paper!!:ugh:

[Barely Restrained]

Now, I may not be entirely spot on with my understanding with the historical perspective, but I'm a little uneasy about the precedent that some Western governments have set here. On the assumption that 'we' are simply allowing democracy to flourish as per the people's desire, can we also take it that if something similar happens elsewhere, then would we and our allies support it just as whole-heartedly?

As an example, let's say that California, which has just about (and certainly will have a significant one in the next decade) an ethnic Hispanic majority, votes for a Governor and State Senate of similar ethnic background, declares independence from the USA and aligns itself with, for instance, Mexico. Will the USA stand idly by while the richest of its States disappears into the sunset as it exercises its democratic right to represent its people's wishes? No, I didn't think so. Likliehood of any nations taking military action to support the democratic ideal? Errrr, pretty remote possibility. A bit like the scenario, I'm sure, but does make me wonder just what is going on here.

[teeteringhead]

Test the EU's mettle, and they are found wanting at every turn...
... exactly so ...

... and how long do you give it before France and Uk are hoofed out as permanent members and replaced by an "EU" member ... just the thing for President Trust-me-Tone to get his teeth into ...

Which makes me think - how come "Russia" is still there, when "USSR", who was originally a permanent member, no longer exists.....:confused:

[ORAC]

Barely Restrained,

if you want a precedent, how about the Croatian War of Independence. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatian_War_of_Independence); Or perhaps Bangladesh (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh_Liberation_War), or even Norway (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_the_union_between_Norway_and_Sweden_in_1905)?

[BluntM8]

Apologies ORAC, I wasn't aware that our last outing in the Balkans was under NATO, not The UN. In my defence I was rather less mature than I am now and mainly concerned with women and music at the time!

I've had a chance to read into the situation more today, thanks in no small part to all the comments posted here.

What now leaps off the pages at me is the fact that Serbs in Belgrade attacked the US Embasy over the declaration. That indicates that they already associate the independence of Kosovo with the USA. Given the previously mentioned Sebian/Russian affiliation, that can't be a good thing. However, I noted that The Telegraph analysis was that Serbia would not react militarily, rather favouring economic sanctions, border crossing restrictions and denial of comodities such as water, gas and electricity. Perhaps me may find ourselves operating in that theatre in a humanitarian relief role, rather than peace support ops.

The mind boggles at the complexity of it all.

Blunty

[blanket.stacker]

If somewhere like Kosovo can just declare independence like that, why are the Scots still whinging about being tied to England? Surely they could just UDI and await EU help to keep those nasty southerners away.....

Just think - LSA for being posted to Lossie!

[Beatriz Fontana]

The Balkans have been in turmoil for centuries, this is merely the latest chapter and the 'West' has to recognise this.

A few questions from the past twenty four hours spring to mind. First, where was the rioting? Serbia, Belgrade in fact, not Kosovo. Next, which flags were being waved? Albanian ones, not those of an independent state, but one of somewhere else. That in itself is rather worrying. Who opposed the independence? Serbia (to be expected), Russia and Spain - countries with their own separatist issues.

The Serbian enclave in the south at the border with Macedonia is the place to watch. If it's going to kick off within Kosovo (or Kosova, if you're Albanian), it'll kick off there.

[BEagle]

So, no doubt there will be yet more Balkan peasants and gangsters squabbling over their uninhabitable goat-crap bespattered rocks - and someone will have to stop the buggers killing eachother.

Except that 'someone' is rather busy elsewhere, right now....

[MarkD]

I'm not usually one for carving off bits of countries (caused all sorts of trouble in Ireland and tends to favour ethnic cleansers) but carving off the Serb dominated northeast of Kosovo might be an exception to the rule if given the cultural significance to them of that area (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo#Ancient_and_medieval_periods).

[Dan D'air]

I posted yesterday that after having been there in '99, I think that we should just leave the feckers to it. They are a horrible group of people, drug-dealing, human-trafficking, extortionists who would do us all a favour if they did once again descend into civil war and exterminate themselves.

And I stand by what I said.

[GOLF_BRAVO_ZULU]

This could, perhaps, set an unfortunate precedent for our own shores hosting an independent Islamic Republic in 60 or so years time.

[ORAC]

BBC: Nato troops close Kosovo border

Nato troops have sealed the northern borders of Kosovo after Serbs angry at its weekend declaration of independence ransacked two crossings.
Hundreds of protesters torched customs and police posts at Jarinje and Brnjak, manned by UN and Kosovo police.

Closing the borders will infuriate both Kosovo Serbs and Serbia's government, says the BBC's Nick Thorpe in Kosovo. The move cuts Kosovo's mainly Serb north off from Serbia, the country to which they insist they still belong. Nato said it was shutting the crossings, initially for a 24-hour period.

The protesters arrived in convoys of cars and buses in what our correspondent says was clearly a carefully planned and coordinated action. Kosovo police and UN customs officials were forced to withdraw to a nearby tunnel as the crowds used bulldozers and explosives to demolish the border posts, according to witnesses.

Nato-led peacekeepers from K-For were called in and US, Estonian and French troops sealed the two border crossings.

Serbia's minister for Kosovo, Slobodan Samardzic, said his government intended to take control of the customs posts to establish what he called the fully authority of Serbian statehood.

The attacks on the crossings and the Nato response put the international community on a collision course with both Kosovo Serbs and the Serbian government, our correspondent says. He says that what is emerging on the ground is a second Kosovo.

Prevented by Nato from partitioning the territory, Kosovo's Serbs are making life increasingly difficult for UN staff in the north-western areas where Serbs are in the majority, he adds.

An EU official denied reports that personnel had withdrawn from the area on safety grounds.

[The SSK]

Piece on the BBC World Service this morning about Montenegro, the last bit of Greater Serbia to declare UDI from the motherland. Apparently it's awash with money, largest per-capita inward investment in Europe, and it's all roubles. Property - industry - tourism, it's almost a Russian statelet now.

[larssnowpharter]

I spent the whole of the Kosovo war in either Albania or Macedonia and was in Pristina some 10 days after peace broke out.

I have some sympathies with Dan D’Air’s point of view although it may be somewhat over generalised.

Re Montenegro: Marginally better than Albania but it regularly has the highest rainfall in Europe.

[PlasticCabDriver]

Marginally better than Albania

A bit like saying: he was marginally nicer than Hitler!

I think BEagle has it about right...

[BluntM8]

Oh, that's not good!

Several worries fall out of the situation for me:

What response to the situation is apropriate from the international community?
Will there be support for intervention, if it's deemed appropriate?

And mainly...

If GB decides to commit UK forces to any action in Kosovo where will the resources and manpower come from?

I can really see us being committed to operations in three theatres at once, even as further budget cuts are happening. And it's a f*cking frightening thought...

Blunty

[West Coast]

Except that 'someone' is rather busy elsewhere, right now....

Beag's
I'm inclined to agree with your above quote and the sentiment of your post.
I'm however a little uncomfortable with some in Europe looking to the horizon for the world's policeman for an issue that's evolving in your own backyard.