Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us.... [Archive] - Page 5

scroggs

3rd Jul 2008, 15:58

As WWW says, there is little or no comfort to be had from statistics of aircraft orders, pilot 'shortages', or past profits in a market where no-one really knows what's happening.

Oil prices have taken on a life of their own, going beyond production fundamentals and now driven by funds exiting stocks and forex for commodity futures. No-one knows how high the price of oil will go, nor how long it will stay there. The only thing likely to bring it down is evidence of significantly reduced medium-term demand. That will need to be coupled with signs of greater stability in oil producing areas, or evidence that alternative sources of fuel are significantly closer to absorbing, say, 10% of current oil demand than they are right now. Any of those factors may take another year or more to become established.

In the meantime, airlines must budget for the market they live in. As houshold and corporate budgets get squeezed by both inflationary pressures and lack of credit, the demand for air travel will naturally reduce. Increased costs will also make air travel more expensive, further reducing its attractiveness. Most American airlines are anticipating consumer demand for air travel treducing by 15 - 25% this coming winter, but have only announced capacity reductions averaging 8%. That suggests worse is to come. In Europe, opinions about how much capacity needs to be taken out is more variable, but most believe it'll be around 10 -15% overall. Whether that's by airline failures, or by a more organised capacity reduction is largely irrelevant in the context of this discussion; the net result is that by this time next year it is likely that there will be 10% fewer pilots employed in Europe than there are now. It may be more. At a rough guess, I'd say that means about 5000 qualified pilots back out in the jobs marketplace.

Now, these numbers are pure speculation, and you'd be foolish to base your plans on them, but it seems almost certain that anyone graduating between now and this time next year is likely to be in competition with type-rated and experienced pilots for the very few jobs that will exist. In similar times in the past, it's taken two to three years for all of those unemployed but relatively experienced pilots to be absorbed back into the market. Some never will be; they'll take up their own plan B, or simply retire. In the meantime, several of those who are being spat out by the schools into the cold, cold world simply will not have a hope of getting a job. Oh, there will be stories of the odd one or two who, by dint of extreme dedication, resourcefulness or just sheer luck, make it despite the odds, but the majority of those who graduate in the next year to 18 months may well find themselves having to earn their living outside a flight deck for a while.

So, if you don't have to be one of them, do something about it now, and let's hope that the economic picture doesn't turn out to be a lot worse than I paint above.

Scroggs

Dane-Ger

3rd Jul 2008, 16:38

It really makes very depressing reading. I'm sitting my stage 2 ATPL's next week and it doesn't help my motivation knowing that the future for newly trained pilots is so grim.

In many ways I am one of the lucky ones, in that I have a stable career as a teacher that I can always return to, and my financial risk is minimal due to getting out of the buy to let market at just the right time with some cash in hand.

but I do wonder now about where all this will lead. My aim has always been to instruct, maybe some taxi flying, after that I'm not really too bothered. I've always been safe in the knowledge that even though getting to fly "something big and shiny" is getting harder and harder, the shortage of instructors would mean that I could get a foot in the door, so to speak and knowing that I already enjoy teaching, that I would quite happily carve out a new and exciting career for myself.

Now I wonder if even that will be realistic in six months time, the combination of high oil prices, less money to spend and high unemployment among experienced pilots will make this task almost impossible I fear.

Sometimes I wonder If it's just not meant to be, this is my third, and at the age of 33, final attempt at becoming a professional pilot.

in 1992 when I got my PPL through an RAF flying scholarship, the RAF was closed for new entries and at 17 the money needed was just not available.

Again at 24 I tried after moving to Denmark, after saving for years I happily paid my savings to a training company which promptly went bust! (let that be a lesson to all those who consider paying all up front! it could happen to you!)

Third time lucky!, maybe not after all:(

difficult times my friends

regards D-G

vlieger

3rd Jul 2008, 17:05

With all the doom and gloom predictions about the USA and Europe, what do people think about job prospects outside these areas? Say, in Asia?
If one can afford it to do an integrated course in Oxford without going too much into debt, surely it should be possible to find a reasonably decent job in China or Singapore with those OAA credentials?

nich-av

3rd Jul 2008, 18:10

Hence the recent chops in US aircraft fleets should make you very nervous.

I thought that this thread was aimed at the English student pilot?

The UK is in Europe, right?
Huge cuts in the US don't mean huge cuts in Europe.

Oil...
People are trading oil contracts...which means they are buying and reselling contracts that result in delivery of a certain volume of oil at a given date.
Oil is like any other business and is very similar to airline yielding systems:

Example:
Aircraft type A321 - 200 seats
Flight: LHR-GVA
Case 1: If sold at 100£ return, average load factor is 85%.
Case 2: If sold at 150£ return, average load factor is 70%.
Case 3: If sold at 200£ return, average load factor is 40%.
Case 4: If sold at 300£return, average load factor is 20%.

Oil works in the same way. The more prices increase, the lower the demand.
When oil prices go above a certain threshold, demand will decrease so strongly that those who hold oil contracts will no longer be able to sell their contracts. They will then sell these contracts in desperation at very low prices, because they need to get rid of the oil before it reaches delivery date. Otherwise, they will need to store that delivered oil and that's gonna cost them way more than their contract is worth.
When oil storages reach their peak limits, demand will decrease very strongly and that's when is going to happen.

Our airfield's fuel supplier BP said that they have plenty of fuel available in storage. Regardless of that, the reason why they're selling it at high rates is because of the market.

There's plenty of ways to restore equilibrium:
-the OPEC way that I explained before
-the suffering automobile industry comes up with viable alternatives (there's no better time to convince people!!)
-common sense in politics with removal of personal interest and corruption
-UN imposes measures in the Middle-East that are fair to all parties, restoring peace and stability.

Why Europe and Asia will not suffer as much as the US:
-Strong currency (except for the UK of course)
-Less addicted to oil, habit of coping with high gas prices (fuel efficient cars, etc...)
-More margin for adjustment (VAT, excise taxes can be reregulated)
-Fair relations with oil countries, limited support & involvement in oil wars (except for the UK of course)

Don't read the news as it is.
I couldn't stop laughing when I heard the Gazprom guy say that oil would rise to 250$ very soon.

The US is in a crisis and it is trying to take the whole world with it. The UK is willing to sacrifice for their brother from another mother.

Let's settle down and look at the traffic figures for April:

http://files.aea.be/News/PR/Pr08-019.pdf

Capacity, traffic and pax number increases in all sectors except European domestic routes (which are by the way tackled by developing railway networks).

Oil prices are going to hurt airlines' profitability and hence the ability to grow further, but in Europe we are still far from being where US airlines are.

triplesevendriver

3rd Jul 2008, 18:31

Greetings to all, Long time reader first time poster (and last time poster).

Despite what many on here are posting recessions are never the same they are all different! Back in the 1990's interest rates were at 15% today they are at 5% also back in 1990 the government set Interest rates and not the Bank of England.

This is just one of the differences, certainly there are also similarities but there are also crucial differences. The world is a completely different place to what it was 20 years ago and especially different from the 1970's they just about had motorways back then for Christs sake.

Now can I just say I hope this End of The Civilised Western World happens very soon and that WWW finds himself looking for a job at "Maccy D's" then maybe just maybe he will no longer be able to afford the $10 per month for the Internet and hence will no longer be in a position to keep preaching to everyone on this site.

My advice to any young wannabe is to ignore his gloomy predictions, as by his own admission he is an 'Amateur Economist' i.e. He really knows sweet fa about the economy. If you feel that you need any such advice go and speak to a professional.

The economy is obviously slowing as any intelligent person (fresh faced 18 year old or miserable old 737 captain) can see for themselves.

I await the smart arse replies from the aforementioned and his cronies. Wish I was such a miserable git. Shame the orange brigade arnt looking for 777 pilots ey :E

(It will probably go something along these line....I sold my house because I knew the world was going to end so wont ever work flipping burgers I'm far to intelligent as I get told everyday..by me, myself and I)

To the rest of my professional colleagues and young wannabes, best wishes for the future..lets hope the world doesn't end by Christmas otherwise...See you at the burger bar!

Buena suerte y Adios :ok:

Please feel free to slate me, I wont get all high and mighty about it maybe just have a good chuckle whislt I sit here in the 30 degree heat of LA.

getoffmycloud

3rd Jul 2008, 19:50

Wow that added a lot to the debate... thanks for the contribution I learnt a lot reading it :bored::\

MIKECR

3rd Jul 2008, 20:07

Why dont we just close this thread now...its getting really tiring.

clear prop!!!

3rd Jul 2008, 20:23

I'm with triple7 and mike....enough is enough!

This thread has become more about who can post alarmist news cuttings first rather than anything of use!

Nice post Scroggs... at last a moderate view from moderator!

WWW if you find yourself out of a job at EZY, .... don't apply for the diplomatic corps!

Sean Dillon

3rd Jul 2008, 20:42

I would be inclined to agree with MIKECR!

This thread is irritating alot of folk and generating an interesting WWW fan club! Have a look around this website and there are a few other 'Oil Price' debates going on with some interesting and witty replies from 'informed' industry (Finance, Fuels and Aviation) individuals.

WWW, your 'writing style' is appaullling, you would be well advised to take some tips from your fellow moderator and more adult like writer, Scroggs. Your general "talk down, preaching, Big I Am The Original Wannabe" attitude/ego is cringe worthy...

Exit stage left...

MIKECR

3rd Jul 2008, 20:52

Perhaps we should start a second thread, something along the lines of 'vote to close the "Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us" ramble. Leave it open for 2 days and let the majority decide

Wee Weasley Welshman

3rd Jul 2008, 21:43

Sean Dillon - you are a long time critic and I don't much like you either but this thread IS the most important one on the Wannabes forum because every day I get pm's and emails asking just how some teenager should best waste their parents re-mortgage.. So it stays.

If I cared about a PPRuNe popularity contest I'd be really upset and halfway through my second hankie by the harsh words on this thread. But guess what - I'm a big boy and you can just f%c5 off this forum, stay, pick a fight or be quiet. I really don't care and neither does 99% of the audience.

But I speak the truth. I was right. I am right. I will be right. And at the end of the day I'll still be here ten years from now just as I was here ten years ago. Unlike those that slag me off. The weren't here. They won't be.

Oh and, of course, there is always the option of not clicking, not scrolling and not reading a thread that you find not interesting... you 5uckwit.

The sun still shines chaps.

WWW :E

Shiver me timbers!

3rd Jul 2008, 22:08

I'm just looking forward to the 'Growing evidence that the upturn is upon us....' thread in a few years time.

:)

heli_port

3rd Jul 2008, 22:20

for those of you that are getting tired of this thread, why don't you stop reading it?

:=

(I think it will serve as a good record the next time this happens) :}

MIKECR

3rd Jul 2008, 22:22

WWW - your last post there just signs, seal and delivers exactly why this thread should be closed. As a Mod, personal insults are unacceptable.

heli_port

3rd Jul 2008, 22:25

Some interesting material found on the OAA forum:

ask.oxfordaviation.net :: View topic - Employment Outlook for 2009 and Beyond (http://ask.oxfordaviation.net/viewtopic.php?t=4566)

Rex,

It is imperative that you do your own research and risk assessment, as I have a vested interest in you deciding to train and no matter how hard I try to be objective, I can't be totally so from inside the industry. The price of oil is hammering all industries right now and you do need to keep an eye on it.

Good news reports are definitely fewer and farther between right now. I fear more for our current students than for those who will start in the next 12-24 months though.

The high oil price is going to hit the US harder than anywhere else. Lenient US bankruptcy law has allowed unhealthy airlines to keep operating and the result is a good 15-20% over capacity. US carriers are attempting to reduce their capacity quickly, but not all will be able to downsize quick enough. Some will go into Chapter 11 bankruptcy, which allows reorganizing and restructuring of debt. This is the form of bankruptcy that prevents Economic Darwinism from doing it's job. Others will be forced into Chapter 7 bankruptcy, also known as liguidation.

If you need some WWW counter balance, here are a few stories from this week that effect the UK market:

FlyBe antcipating record profits: http://www.abtn.co.uk/Flybe_anticipates_record_profits (http://www.abtn.co.uk/Flybe_anticipates_record_profits)

AA, BA and Iberia seeking to form alliance to take advantage of Open Skies: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ac3382cc-4881-11dd-a851-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1 (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ac3382cc-4881-11dd-a851-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1)

Below is a bunch of news from the US, much of it upbeat as far as traffic projections, so it is just a matter of how much of the increased fuel cost can be passed on to the consumer vs. how much demand will decrease as a result of the higher fares.

Here's a mixed report showing good news for first four months of 2008, but expressing concerns going forward: http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33365.html (http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33365.html)

American Airlines, the world's largest airline, reported a June load factor of 85.5 percent, a decline of 1.7 points versus the same period last year. Traffic decreased 3.1 percent and capacity decreased 1.2 percent year over year: http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33360.html (http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33360.html)

Continental Airlines (NYSE:CAL) today reported a June consolidated (mainline plus regional) load factor of 83.6 percent, 2.1 points below the June 2007 consolidated load factor, and a mainline load factor of 84.1 percent, 2.0 points below the June 2007 mainline load factor: http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33351.html (http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33351.html)

Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV) announced today that the Company flew 6.9 billion revenue passenger miles (RPMs) in June 2008, a 0.7 percent increase from the 6.8 billion RPMs flown in June 2007: http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33349.html (http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33349.html)

International tourism in emerging & developing markets has grown at an average rate of 6-8% over the past decade. Twice the rate of industrialized countries: http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33272.html (http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33272.html)

The U.S. Department of Commerce today announced international visitation to the United States rose 15 percent, and visitor spending increased by 20 percent in the first quarter of 2008 over last year. In March 2008, visitation to the United States climbed substantially to 4.7 million, an increase of 19 percent over March 2007: http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33270.html (http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33270.html)
_________________
Mike Griffith
Senior Training Advisor APP First Officer

3rd Jul 2008, 22:28

Daid UK, don't hold your breath.

Schadenfreude fuelled minds are naturally reluctant to convey positive news.

A and C

3rd Jul 2008, 22:28

WWW your last post is he most high handed and patronsing that I have seen in a long time.

Quote:most important one on the Wannabes forum because every day I get pm's and emails asking just how some teenager should best waste their parents re-mortgage.. So it stays.

It is not for you to judge if way that someone spends their money is a waste life is about going out and making what of it you can, not sitting down and meekly cowering to the self appointed good and great.

Having left a crapp school with 2 GCSE's and careers advice to "do something in a factory" I discovered that if you work hard at something you can make a sucsess of it and now thirty-four years later I have a command, current A320 and B73NG type ratings and the lifestyle that I want.

None of this was achived by listening to the self apointed good & great like yourself, if I had I would still be sweeping factory floors.

I happen to agree with you that borrowing money at the moment is not wise and a self financed modular route is probably the best at the present time.

So it is time for you to put away the high handed all knowing sky god attitude and come over with a little more practical advice for the guys who will be your First Officers over the next few years, we know that some will fall by the wayside along the path to the airline flight deck but I know of no one who has regretted trying to improve them selfs but there are a lot of people pushing brooms who have not achived anywere near full potental because they listened to the likes of you telling them that they would never make a go of it.

p111lot

3rd Jul 2008, 22:28

Ahh the old you if don't like it, don't read it post.

If you truly arn't all that bothered if anyone reads your monotonous pessimistic lectures, why bother to waste your highly valuable time with them in the first place old chap? And might I add not just post them the once, but many times over and over.

I'm not buying this 'helping young wannabes' routine either, you come across as the kind of person who despises young wannabes.

To go back to the original topic yes there does appear to be a downturn upon us but no one here has a crystal ball. Most highly experienced economists haven't much of a clue as to what lies around the corner.

All we do know in respect of the airlines is that some of the largest are posting record profits for last year and alot are still recruiting, and recruiting freshly trained pilots as well as experienced ones. Is this about to change? Probably, maybe yes. Will we all be working in the local fast food outlet soon? No.

Also I think most wannabes who borrow vast amounts of cash to train do so knowing the risk and most are well prepared for a long wait to get into the RHS.

Maybe there should be a similar thread where WWW and a couple of his equally deplorable 'mates' can decide to stop trying to dominate this site and let others discuss things without the same old same old I know more than you palaver.

Being a member of a site for 10 years doesn't make you any more knowing or better than the next member. I notice your a 737 captain, what would you say If a very senior 747 captain came on here and took a similar attitude towards you?

Regards,
Hank

fiveo

3rd Jul 2008, 22:35

MIKECR

WWW - your last post there just signs, seal and delivers exactly why this thread should be closed. As a Mod, personal insults are unacceptable.

I very much agree. Its not a very professional considering that this is the 'PROFESSIONAL Pilots Rumour Network'.

:=

CamelhAir

3rd Jul 2008, 23:38

Whether or not you agree with WWW's style (and why it should bother you is beyond me), the facts speak for themselves. Wannabes would be wise to heed them or burned they will get.
The percentage of those that graduated in 2001/02 who actually got jobs flying is not high. It won't be different this time around, in fact it will be far far worse.
In aviation you will come across all manner of people on the flight deck, some who will have the communications skills of a monkey, that won't make what they say wrong however and you can't ignore facts cos you don't like the delivery.
Objective reasoning, and binning the emotional reaction to styles you don't like, might well save you a whole lot of money. One day you'll be thankful.

nich-av

4th Jul 2008, 00:38

This moderator wants to make a point:

He finds it ridiculous that people head into integrated flight training by securing loans on lunatic amounts of money.

The ability to take out a loan is the only real life advantage of the integrated system (except for some who offer real job prospects).
But an individual with common sense and good judgement should know better than gambling his/her parent's capital because "it's easier" instead of going for the safer but harder way of working hard to achieve his goal.

I admire people like member UAV who works 2 jobs to achieve his/her dream of flying a jet some day. I have many close friends who are in similar situations and I have a deep admiration for them all.

As I told this moderator several times already, media articles showing "how bad things are" are inappropriate because of the following reasons:

-many pilots on this forum are not starting wannabe's, many are already done with training, some are half-way there. Putting bad news on them puts unneeded pressure on them with the risk of affecting motivation.

-what is there today in the US may not affect Europe's airline 2 years from now, supposing that the moderator is intending to warn people who are about to start now and thus, be ready 2 years from now.

-too much speculation, misinformation and confusion to see what is really going on. Some media are reporting the end of the world. :rolleyes: (as usual I would say, remember the bluff of the millenium? year 2000: "computers may not work anymore due to inability of computers to adapt to the new time scale")
The reality is that Q1 ended with a slight growth even in the US. Airline traffic and capacity figures look pretty good in Europe, only minus point is that airline CEO's shouldn't expect a huge bonus at the end of the year.
The foreclosure crisis was launched by a government... that says enough in the actual context.

As I told you before dear moderator, if you really want to make flight training affordable, risk-free and if you really want to help motivated individuals no matter whether rich or poor, to get their licenses at a resonable price, then start your own affordable flight training program.

It takes more than pushing tabs on a computer.

Ps: AA, BA, IB are not intending to merge because of Openskies. It's a desperate move to attempt to save eachother. BA is particularily doing bad. I think that UK airlines relying too much on tatl routes will be hurt badly. Others like BMI will fight their way out.

Other than that, I agree with the OAA guy's general assessment that the US is going to see some bankruptcies.
I was told yesterday by a FAA guy that only 4% of student pilots at Embry-Riddle are Americans...

Flight schools are getting empty because many locals can't afford to fly anymore with avgas prices where they are; only schools that can accommodate foreign students are full-up.

Standing at PHL (yes, I fly USAir with ticket prices where they are) I saw more pilots than passengers in the terminals. Turboprops taxied on one engine and flights with too few passengers booked on them were simply cancelled (yes, happened to me twice...in a day), pax transferred to hotels (it was a nice hotel, 4*, thanks USAir).

Local (Ohio, USA) student pilots close to finishing training have a positive attitude, many of them think that the high fuel cost would see a surge in turbo-props, thus resulting in jobs for them... not sure what to tell them (I usually nod) but I know that the last thing I would do is to make them lose their hopes and motivation.

Grass strip basher

4th Jul 2008, 06:56

If you don't like the message WWW sends then prove him wrong... post why the outlook is so good and make him look silly..... please do share all the good news (quite why 3 airlines merging is good for pilot jobs is a bit beyond me)

I agree WWW's style is more than a little "tabloid" at times but if you don't think the outlook for the aviation industry and its impact on jobs for new wannabees is important then please explain why rather than just resorting to personal attacks... in short please stay on topic.

A the moment you are just coming across as "I don't like what is happening in the world so will ignore it and chastise anyone who dare point it out"..... that does come across as a bit pathetic.

So come on then lets have to good news... I and no doubt everyone else would love to hear it......

...enter tumbleweed stage left....

and oh yeah rubbish traffic numbers out of BA... but don't worry everything is going to be fine.

Wee Weasley Welshman

4th Jul 2008, 09:00

You don't get over 50,000 thread views without a bit of tabloid reporting :E

I think quite a few of you would be suprised by the correspondence I get from youngsters who have NO IDEA there might be even a teensy bit of trouble in the economy. They are still getting their parents to remortgage the house in the belief that £50,000 a year airline jobs are just there for the taking.

This is just one thread. If you understand the airline business and the economic conditions or the present day then you really needn't be reading this.

I will be delighted to contribute to the Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us thread when its time comes - which it will.

WWW

MIKECR

4th Jul 2008, 09:31

At one time in the distant past it was an interesting read. Its now however a never ending ad nauseum scroll of posts that continually repeat each other. On the occasions that i've clicked on this thread just in case someone may have posted something interesting, alas its the same old broken record. The thread does nothing but go round in circles. I think we're all perfectly aware of the immediate ecenomic outlook, its splashed across the papers, media, news...its evident even at the supermarkets. WWW - your not going to stop people training. As much as you'd like to, it aint gonna happen. Little Johnny isnt going to listen to you....nor anyone else for that matter.

now somebody change the record............:ugh:

Wee Weasley Welshman

4th Jul 2008, 09:58

Well Mike, why don't you just relax and let me manage the editorial policy of the Wannabe forums and you think of something new and interesting to say?

Or, you could continue to bitch and moan about a thread you admit you continue to check and complain about its contents and my style.

Either is fine by me.

Really.

WWW

ps I know you are sitting in a couple of holding pools waiting for that first job offer. I understand that me posting negative news about airline prospects perplexes you. You are shooting the messenger though.

JB007

4th Jul 2008, 10:02

http://www.clicksmilies.com/s1106/natur/nature-smiley-019.gif

Wee Weasley Welshman

4th Jul 2008, 10:04

Laughing Out Loud at that JB! :) :)

WWW

MIKECR

4th Jul 2008, 10:06

I check it in the vain hope that someone may have actually posted something worthy to read. That hasnt happened for some considerable time now.

And I would probably suggest that it is you who needs to think up something new and interesting to say. You've been like a broken record ever since this thread started. As for your style, lastnight you told someone to fu*k off and called someone else a fu*wit.......charming!

Wee Weasley Welshman

4th Jul 2008, 10:09

Well - I'm on holiday and was just back from a splendid evening out so I may have been a little more blunt than usual...

Perhaps you should dock my pay?

WWW

MIKECR

4th Jul 2008, 10:11

nah, you could just choose your words better....your a mod after all.

Wee Weasley Welshman

4th Jul 2008, 10:37

But you believe that:

Little Johnny isnt going to listen to you....nor anyone else for that matter.

So surely my choice of words is of no matter?

Anyway, enough squabling. Back to the topic. Its not looking good is it?

Britain is edging closer to recession, economists warn

Britain is edging closer to recession, economists warned yesterday, after two bleak reports showed that activity in the country's vital services sector has slumped to its lowest level since 2001 and the credit squeeze on businesses is worsening.

Britain is edging closer to recession, economists warn - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/04/cnrecess104.xml)

John Lewis sees sales tumble as much as 25pc

Department store operator John Lewis Partnership saw sales slump by 8.3pc over the week to June 28, with some of its large out-of-town shops seeing sales fall by as much as 25pc.

The retailer said that shopping centres in the south of England fared particularly badly. Sales at the retailer have now dropped for seven out of the last eight weeks.

The bad figures from John Lewis back up claims by Sir Stuart Rose, the Marks & Spencer chairman, that the downturn affecting retailers is market-wide and deep-rooted.

John Lewis sees sales tumble as much as 25pc - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/04/bcnlewis104.xml)

Bradford & Bingley shares tumble after TPG walks away

Bradford & Bingley shares tumbled this morning after US private equity firm Texas Pacific Group walked away from a deal to inject money into the bank, forcing the ailing lender to fall back on investors for an emergency cash injection.

The shares had fallen more than 10pc by late morning trading, leaving them down more than 90pc this year.

Bradford & Bingley shares tumble after TPG walks away - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/04/bcnbnb104.xml)

So thats the economy, the retailers and the banks all in deep trouble. Airlines live in the economy operate as Fast Moving Consumer Goods sellers and are nearly always in huge debt to the banks.

:(

WWW

4eyedfreak

4th Jul 2008, 10:37

You're both right really. On the one hand, if you've got the opportunity to follow a dream, then you're gonna follow it, whatever the circumstances.

On the other hand, WWW is just informing us of the well documented economic situation we face at present (just in a somewhat provocative style!)

At the end of the day, wannabes have to understand that if they want to do this, they're probably gonna be waiting around for a while before that first job offer comes up. And that could be costly if you've got Mr HSBC up your a*se!!

Thanks for the laughs guys, everyone loves seeing two grown men arguing in public!!

MIKECR

4th Jul 2008, 10:39

It'll be pistols at dawn tmrw!!:}

Wee Weasley Welshman

4th Jul 2008, 10:49

Shall we have a group hug?

;)

WWW

ps I agree the evidence is all around us now so it does seem that we are pointing out the obvious. Please bear in mind that this thread was started and my position was taken back in early February. At that point most people thought I was mad to have sold my house in expectation of a crash and that the economy was about to recover from a slight credit crunch..

Grass strip basher

4th Jul 2008, 10:55

Now it is obvious the slowdown is upon us I agree the original title is less appropriate.... maybe rename the thread to "how to survive the downturn".... then young plonkers would want to secure a £100k pilot training scheme debt on mum and dads house can at least still get a bit of help about how life actually works in the real world.... then maybe everyone will be happy :O

chris-squire

4th Jul 2008, 12:18

Yeah did anyone see news at ten last night? what a laugh. The government has hung themselves this time! Announcing that they've voted to keep the massive unreceipted expense allowances (what a surprise!!!) for second home furnishings and various goodies from John Lewis has likely pissed off the enitre nation in one fowl swoop! Pigs in a trough!!!

Sorry to stray from the point, back to the doom and gloom......:ugh:

expedite08

5th Jul 2008, 07:56

At the end of the day WWW does have a point, HOWEVER, i dont think it has been mentioned once on here that regardless of what is going on economically. Us wannabes are still REQUIRED to get the QUALIFICATIONS in order to get a flying job! It does not matter how bad it is, the CAA still have the time limits for passing this and passing that! They havent said ' ok guys and girls the economy is in bits lets relax the training regs a bit and let people take longer to rain or take a break from training!

Lets look:

18 months to complete all ATPL's from date of first pass
36 months to complete all flying training from the date of the last exam pass

Yes three years seems a long time, but for those of us like me who took the exams 1.5 years ago! The clocks ticking!! We didnt know then that this was comming.

Just a bit of food for thought. Now for the stary eyed kids now beginning integrated courses, fully knwing whats going on..... well thats another matter!!

heli_port

5th Jul 2008, 09:36

In a deeply pessimistic assessment of the American airline industry, Moody's, the credit ratings agency, said yesterday that the business models of many carriers were “unsustainable”. The agency's analysts said that US airlines were particularly vulnerable to high oil prices and even large carriers could be forced into bankruptcy.
The record high price of oil has increased operating costs for airlines around the world and many are struggling to survive.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article4273168.ece

thirtysomething

5th Jul 2008, 14:36

You too are sitting in the deck chair and coming up with your "opinion" , your in no better position than anybody (WWW) to know. Nobody can know for sure there can only be a broad expectation. We manage a large fund here from Spain in Stocks , i can tell you that we made ( and will continue to ) a packet shorting airline stocks , homebuilders , banks and buying oil. A While back people laughed when i predicted oil to continue to climb ( it was about 90 dollars then ). We have a target of 175 USD a barrell with a stronger dollar than we are seeing now. 160 Dollars we think within 20 days.

The reason we made a packet is because now things are drifting in a less paniced fashion than was seen in Feb / March ) to new lows ( Dow , Eurostox, Transportation Average , SPX , Nasdaq etc. as the people who do know ( both the retail investors and fund managers ) come to assess the picture and arrive at the conclusion that there are huge problems ahead. These lows are not even being created by panic ( we probably get to see that next week with lots of volatility )

I can tell you that in the team of economists at our own firm there is no hurry to " cover " , were expecting the market to lose another 20% before year end. Panic next week , short term bounce , retail investors give smart money another chance again. People much smarter than me ( on of our guys is the director of risk Management in a large Iberian bank ) tell me we have only had a taste of the mess the US sub prime crisis has gotten us into.

When you dont see new lows in the airline stocks over a 5 month period thats the time to think about it. BMI is a recent example of an airline thats cancelled its intake , im sure there are tons more. Name 4 airlines in Europe that are recruiting right now. Name 4 airlines in Europe that are about to go pop ... a lot easier...

If this thread serves to prevent one poor sod from mortgaging a ( parents ) house that wont sell to end up stacking shelves in ASDA then its a great job . If its closed it should be made a sticky so it doesnt drift off into the ether.

No wonder pilots cant form a decent union if this thread serves anything to go by, the old timers are getting bitten by the new dogs.

heli_port

5th Jul 2008, 14:42

It wasn’t too long ago that the prospect of crude oil prices hitting $100 a barrel seemed unthinkable. Now with oil prices having smashed through the $140-a-barrel barrier, some are predicting that it could go as high as $200.
Can any airlines really survive $200-a-barrel oil, and how would oil at these prices alter the landscape of the global airline industry?
Already the global airline industry has found itself in crisis mode as carriers struggle to come to terms with record high oil prices. IATA director general Giovanni Bisignani (http://www.iata.org/pressroom/dg_biography) said at the industry body’s annual meeting in Istanbul in June that, based on an average oil price of $107 per barrel, the world’s airlines would incur a loss of $2.3 billion in 2008 (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/07/04/225097/www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/06/18/224712/iata-forecasts-massive-industry-losses-in-2008.html).

Can airlines survive $200-a-barrel oil? (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/07/04/225097/can-airlines-survive-200-a-barrel-oil.html)

spinnaker

6th Jul 2008, 09:34

the old timers are getting bitten by the new dogs.

and if they're not prepared to learn from history, they are doomed to repeat it.

clear prop!!!

6th Jul 2008, 10:53

Well Hel-Port. If it all goes wrong you'll be fine!

Just set yourself up as a press cutting agency, you clearly have a skill in that department! :ok:

daria-ox

6th Jul 2008, 12:00

When do you think, the downturn will actually end? in how many years?

heli_port

6th Jul 2008, 12:14

Well daria when you finish your A-levels you should start to see the economy picking up again ;) ;)

R T Jones

6th Jul 2008, 13:36

There is so much speculation about where the world economy is going over the short and long term. One thing is definite and that is no one really knows, everyone has their educated or un-educated opinion as it may be but the only sure thing is things will not stay the same! Interesting that flybe's breakeven point is $176 a barrel. Perhaps the medium term solution for aviation in Europe is turbo props! From my reading it seems the summer is always a slow time for recruitment, it will be very interesting to see what happens in October/November when a lot of airlines will start thinking about pilot requirement for the next year. I'm the first person to look at the negative side of something I'll admit, however I don't believe the industry will collapse. I am fairly sure that capacity will be reduced within the US and EU airlines and a fair few smaller airlines will go bankrupt or merge with larger carriers.

I think the bigger issue than just the price of oil is the energy demands and supplies of the world. There needs to be some decisions made very soon, about where we are going to get our power from for the next 30 - 50 years. In Britain, our nuclear plants are coming to the end of their lifespan and I for one support the building of new ones. I believe the price of Oil will go down eventually, look at the dot com bubble in the 90's and the housing market. Massive unsustainable growth that eventually goes poop.

Cirrus_Clouds

6th Jul 2008, 15:18

Let me summarise my thoughts on the whole flying situation right now.

I'm glad i'm not an Integrated student and have gone down the Modular route with a job as a backup and no debts (yet!!).

The storm will clear, when, who knows, but for now, play your cards right, keep plugging away and "luck" will have it's way.

WWW, is submitting some good posting, whilst I'm not bothering to read all these postings, I already know the state of the market. Welcome to reality.

My tip is stop reading too much on Pprune, get on with other things in your life, life isn't just about flying!

Try to remain positive people and don't do silly things :ok:

G-SPOTs Lost

6th Jul 2008, 17:23

Cirrus Clouds

And perhaps more to the point if I was on an interview panel and listened to that reasoned opinion I would be mighty impressed and more than likely offer you the job. Full Marks......

That being opposed to some dope who listened to the Oxford Marketing bull**** and managed to get his parents house in to hock to the tune of £75k.

Having said that integrated might be the way to go because of all the Vietnam Vets approaching 60 and the BA retirement "bubble" :ugh: :ugh: :ugh:

Cirrus_Clouds

6th Jul 2008, 18:12

OAT would be my place to go if I were doing an Integrated course, but let's just say, I've got quite a bit of "sales" experience :).

I would still get on with training, but going for the safer/less risky option.

heli_port

6th Jul 2008, 19:44

Having said that integrated might be the way to go because of all the Vietnam Vets approaching 60 and the BA retirement "bubble" :ugh: :ugh: :ugh:
This is why i am enrolled on an OAA course later on this year, i think jobs will be few and far between in the coming years but the airlines that do have any vacancies for 'noobs' like me will go to the integrated providers first (hopefully :p)

:ok:

lilpilot

6th Jul 2008, 22:19

There will be no retirement bubble.

The number of ATPL(A) holders that will reach age 60 in the next 5 years is steady around the 300's/year.

The CAA issued 1218 ATPL(A)'s and 1146 CPL(A)'s and 1869 PPL (A)'s in 2007.

There is an ample supply of pilots way ahead of any newbie starting training now.

All that being said, by no way should anyone give up their dream of flying, but do take a reality check before taking out a large loan or signing away your parents house. Find the cheapest flying club or flight school within reach. Pay as you go and stay debt free.

Slick

6th Jul 2008, 22:29

Is it not possible to go and get a US,NZ, Australian, South African or Canadian licence and instruct for a thousand hours or so? thats surely cheeper isnt it? Can you still convert it later? Or do you all have to be airline pilots or nothing nowdays?

Rgds

G-SPOTs Lost

7th Jul 2008, 05:38

Quote:
Having said that integrated might be the way to go because of all the Vietnam Vets approaching 60 and the BA retirement "bubble"

This is why i am enrolled on an OAA course later on this year, i think jobs will be few and far between in the coming years but the airlines that do have any vacancies for 'noobs' like me will go to the integrated providers first (hopefully )

:ugh: :ugh: :ugh: :ugh: :ugh: :ugh:

heli_port

7th Jul 2008, 06:15

Or do you all have to be airline pilots or nothing nowdays?

For me i have to be an airline pilot, i suspect that will hold true for most 'noobies'

:ugh: :ugh: :ugh: :ugh: :ugh: :ugh:

:ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh:

Re-Heat

7th Jul 2008, 09:28

BA retirement bubble finished 5 years ago.

eikido

7th Jul 2008, 11:52

Do you guys think you'll increase your chances of getting a job if you also have a background as a civil engineer with some experience and still young?

Eikido

scroggs

7th Jul 2008, 16:02

777 driver in LA
You too are sitting in the deck chair and coming up with your "opinion" , your in no better position than anybody (WWW) to know. Nobody can know for sure there can only be a broad expectation. We manage a large fund here from Spain in Stocks , i can tell you that we made ( and will continue to ) a packet shorting airline stocks , homebuilders , banks and buying oil. A While back people laughed when i predicted oil to continue to climb ( it was about 90 dollars then ). We have a target of 175 USD a barrell with a stronger dollar than we are seeing now. 160 Dollars we think within 20 days.

The reason we made a packet is because now things are drifting in a less paniced fashion than was seen in Feb / March ) to new lows ( Dow , Eurostox, Transportation Average , SPX , Nasdaq etc. as the people who do know ( both the retail investors and fund managers ) come to assess the picture and arrive at the conclusion that there are huge problems ahead. These lows are not even being created by panic ( we probably get to see that next week with lots of volatility )

I can tell you that in the team of economists at our own firm there is no hurry to " cover " , were expecting the market to lose another 20% before year end. Panic next week , short term bounce , retail investors give smart money another chance again. People much smarter than me ( on of our guys is the director of risk Management in a large Iberian bank ) tell me we have only had a taste of the mess the US sub prime crisis has gotten us into.

When you dont see new lows in the airline stocks over a 5 month period thats the time to think about it. BMI is a recent example of an airline thats cancelled its intake , im sure there are tons more. Name 4 airlines in Europe that are recruiting right now. Name 4 airlines in Europe that are about to go pop ... a lot easier...

If this thread serves to prevent one poor sod from mortgaging a ( parents ) house that wont sell to end up stacking shelves in ASDA then its a great job . If its closed it should be made a sticky so it doesnt drift off into the ether.

No wonder pilots cant form a decent union if this thread serves anything to go by, the old timers are getting bitten by the new dogs.

I love economists! Only now are they beginning to speculate that 'there are huge problems ahead'! Give me strength...

One of the truisms of economic downturns is that by the time we've noticed we're in one, we're already on the way out. The fundamental economic problems that precipitated the current downturn peaked in late 2006. Few economists, hedge fund managers and retail investors (the 'people who know') were doing anything but riding the crest of that wave, and predicting growth would continue into the forseeable future. Hey ho.

Now, of course, all of those experts are predicting that we're at the lip of the abyss and the only way is down from here on in. Well, I'm not predicting any instant recovery, but if the 'economists' have noticed we're in trouble, then things are looking up!

There are still too many imponderables to predict when things will pick up in our industry. The wider economy is likely to be coming out of its current problems in six months to a year, but the airline industry is somewhat uniquely vulnerable to oil prices. Other oil users can far more easily adopt alternatives or new technology; safety regulation and development lead times make such adaptation difficult for aviation. The oil price is likely to remain extremely high until the world's demand has reduced to a point where there is significant production headroom, and that alternatives can be relied upon to take a significant and increasing share of the enrgy supply market. That may take 5 years or more, and in the meantime aviation will hurt. Even after that, the cost of aviation fuel is unlikely to return to the historic lows of the '80s and '90s.

As heli_port's latest link suggests, $200 oil makes the current airline business unviable. Fares would have to rise to a point where the structure would have to shrink very significantly for a balance to be regained. However, that's if aviation fuel reaches and stays at or above $2000 per tonne. I don't believe that will happen. If it gets there, the economic pressure to develop and market cheaper alternatives will be irresistable, and rapid. Already, the investment in alternatives is several times what it was only a few months ago. Life - including aviation - will go on. But there is pain to be endured in the meantime.

Looking at past economic crises, and factoring in the additional factor of exceptional fuel prices, I suspect we are looking at a period of 5 years of zero or negative overall growth in the airline industry worldwide. Some areas will continue to expand - the Far and Middle East, mainly - but the West's airlines are going to contract. The USA may get hit harder than Europe, but that doesn't mean we can be complacent. Several airlines are likely to go down, and pilots will be made unemployed. There will be a very subdued market for new pilots over that period - for 5 years from now, remember. 5 years. That's how long I think you need to think in terms of.

Of course, it may all be fine by next summer - lots of new oil discoveries, and everyone flying as much as they always did. Are you going to bet £50,000+ on that?

Scroggs

cavortingcheetah

7th Jul 2008, 16:28

:hmm:

Of course the US has missed its chance to dominate the world of aviation in the western world. It would under today's circumstances, and probably tomorrow's, have been able to do this had Mr Bush been permitted by the rather short sighted Democrat Congress, to develop the Alaska oil fields in a manner favourable to the environment. Instead of such a careful plan being put into action, thus providing almost unlimited oil for the US industrial base, the fields up north are now far more likely to have to be intruded into in a manner than is hurried, costly and seriously damaging to the cherished, if sometimes hardly democratic ethos (or should that be ethoi in the classic Greek plural?) of those who profess to prefer to run with green feet but who are not above keeping quite warm in winter.:8

thirtysomething

7th Jul 2008, 17:57

Scroggs we shorted in late November of last year. By no means everybody was telling you all was ok or all was good , in fact the first rumblings that all wasnt came last July.

I think your missing the point though, that while a small body of people can make various predictions aka WWW or 777, you or me if you look towards the market its a broader look at what many many institutional investors and non armchair economists think and if you watch it over the next few days / weeks you will see it get a whole lot worse . thats my point. You will see the real economy get worse behind the market and recover after the market and well my contention is that we are nowhere close to the worst ( despite what LEH or GS say ) . Were the papers telling you 3 months ago to buy while everything was cheap ? Half the news you watch about the " bottom being in " is the markets way of creating retail demand as positions are being unwound. You only have to look over the last six months to see that now. Today alone the housing sector and many of the largest mortgage companies lost another huge chunk in valuation ( SLM - 11% and FRE - 18% ).. in one day.

It doesnt take an economist to tell you there are rumours circulating in the hallways about cutbacks in your workforce or going belly up but it will be economists who tell your airline when to start recruiting again and if the market is anything to go by that will be a very long time. When that begins i contend that there will be quite a pool of qualified pilots ( which is why i didnt bother turning up at Bristol even though i have paid for it ). I have been connected in a number of ways in my sport to aviation since 9/11 and watched many many good pilots lose everything.

Isnt it just crazy that many airlines are not even trading at the value of their assets ( airframes ) .

This is more my point, it might be interesting to you to take a look at recruitment numbers in your own company over the last 8 years and compare them to a chart of say the DOW, SP500 or FTSE over that same time period.

scroggs

7th Jul 2008, 18:19

I didn't mention any figures other than a possible fuel price. I don't doubt that you've traded well and made a stack out of the problems we've been discussing; so have many others. Trouble is, the profits you've made (and those of the banks that precipitated this mess) have largely been paid for by the poor suckers who borrowed money from people much cleverer, sharper and more ruthless than them. Now the clever people have realised that the suckers never had the money to pay them back directly, so they'll get it by wrecking the world's financial system - and millions of jobs worldwide in the process. But that's the way of the world and I'm in no position to change it.

Yes, there's worse to come. But for most of the economy, the pain will be much shorter than it will be for aviation. That's the key point, at least in the context of this forum.

Many of our wannabes are directly analagous to those who took those sub-prime loans a few years back. They're going to borrow money at interest rates they don't really understand, against security they don't really own, backed by prospects of employment which are rapidly diminishing, and they're going to do it because some smooth-talking flight schools and airlines tell them, 'it'll all be ok'. Well, it won't be ok. The sums don't stack up, but the potential life-wrecking problems certainly do. This is not the time to spend any money, especially money that's not yours, on flying training.

Scroggs

thirtysomething

7th Jul 2008, 18:23

I do apologise, I did not initially understood your reference to the 50K. I will edit that out.

v6g

7th Jul 2008, 18:34

Many of our wannabes are directly analagous to those who took those sub-prime loans a few years back.

That's BANG ON!

scroggs

7th Jul 2008, 18:35

Ah, I see - that's a reference to how much commercial flight training costs in UK, not a comment on your (or anyone else's) profits!

Scroggs

Wee Weasley Welshman

7th Jul 2008, 18:50

Whilst I'm pleased that the wind of opinion has turned my way I'm rather worried that it marks the approach of a hurricane.

Over the last 6 months things have gotten worse, faster, than I expected and I started sleeping in a cave I'm such a bear. :E

WWW

lazy george

7th Jul 2008, 19:01

And i say its good to have scroggs back . Welcome back pal!

scroggs

7th Jul 2008, 19:40

Thank you George. Don't get too used to it; my life is too busy elsewhere these days. I hope it stays that way!

WWW, I'm not sharing any caves with you, mate! ;) Frankly, if I didn't work in this industry I wouldn't give two hoots about the wider economy, house prices and all that baloney. Too many heartbeats are wasted worrying about money and whether we have enough of it, whether we have a fast enough car, big enough house, the right clothes and all that sh!t. Life's too short to spend wrapped up in all that stuff. And it's certainly too short to start a working career with worries about a debt you may never be able to repay.

If I lose my house because I lose my job because guys like thirtysomething get my life caught up in their attempts to enrich themselves by causing and capitalising on panic, I'll be pissed off - but I'll still have my family, my bike and my health. That's worth more than all the rest put together.

Scroggs

cirruscrystal

7th Jul 2008, 20:36

Having been through the flight training cluster f*** and seen all my colleagues from it progress onto their old careers of IT, building and suchlike. Through a contact of my families i have been lucky beyond my doing to be employed in aviation. The only keyphrase for any potential pilot trainee in my view is:

Complete your training to FATPL if you are happy in the knowledge that you won't get a job.

Going by the number of CVs we are recieving on a weekly basis i can tell you that it is the truth. You might be very lucky though at some point shortly after graduating and be offered somthing. That in my view is the long and short of anyone considering completing the journey to FATPL.

thirtysomething

7th Jul 2008, 20:41

Scroggs,

Thats a rather misguided comment. The people who lose their homes are the people who should not have bought them in the first place , certainly not on 100%+ valuations. Boom and bust are as old as crushing grapes to make wine. Sub prime was only the excuse to get the inevitable bust on the road, this slowdown is about a whole lot more than sub prime but about peoples use of credit in general. Credit everything , forget about saving was the great mantra of the last few years. To suggest that people are the helpless victims and didnt know they were spending beyond their means is narrow. Are people in foreclosure blaming the bank if they lose that home ? Really ?? As a kid on credit ( i got my first TV on credit ) I knew i was taking a risk that i could not pay it back. Luckily McDonalds didnt go bust at the time.

The " system " , nor anybody like me has responsibility for such folly and as for the banks that lent them money , well thats called a writedown or loss so they got and are getting their own medicine. Mostly American banks.. Although a few on this side of the pond too like the Rock.

It is not the systems, nor people like me as you put it ..fault that hundreds if not thousands will mortgage their ( parents ) house listening to some crap from a flight school about a pilot shortage, leaving themselves in long term debt with no prospects either... doesnt mean people wont do it though. But thats " credit " right?

The one area that I do think the current " system " is to blame for though is oil. If " they " managed to change the system so their could be less speculation I do not believe it would be as bad. That and / or send China back to the dark ages and rickshaws. Incidentally I dont own oil but USO.

The purpose of my post was to add something by way of information to the thread , i think thats done now , as best as I can do it. My money is made not because of who I am but becuase of the blind risk most people took. Your apology is accepted.

jens40202

8th Jul 2008, 03:49

Looking back at the last 30years, flying as a career has really gone south! The spread in wages vs. other industries have certainly narrowed and the perks of a flying job diminishing (B scales, longer hours, kneejerk lay-offs,etc.). Makes you wonder if it's still worthwhile.......

heli_port

8th Jul 2008, 06:32

The UK is facing a serious risk of recession within months, the findings of a survey of almost 5,000 small and medium-sized businesses suggest. The British Chambers of Commerce's (BCC) quarterly report found the credit crunch and rising costs had dented the most important sectors of the economy.

BBC NEWS | Business | Recession 'looming' for UK firms (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7494508.stm)

Re-Heat

8th Jul 2008, 08:53

My current employer predicts that its market will reach the bottom mid-2009 (bank) and that we will be back where we are right now in mid-2010. As usual, banks closely correlate with airlines.

AceD3

8th Jul 2008, 11:09

My god, I'm just about to enrol on my ATPL ground school for November this year and reading the posts on pprune I'm wondering whether I should bother with all this negativity about. :ooh:

Okay, so we're heading for a recession it seems...I'm 33 and decided that I need to get out of IT before it eats anything left of me and follow my dream career of flying a jet.

If I don't do my fATPL now, I'm probably going to regret it, plus I can hardly put if off for a couple of years to see how the economy pans out as being 33 is getting on a bit now.

So...with one bit of hope by someone here...what do you reckon on my chances getting into an airline end of next year, beginning 2010? I'm completely going modular and choosing schools etc as I go along.

I was looking to do a A320 TR at the end of it with Randhem, but it appears that many are losing money and having their courses cancelled :yuk:..sorry to hear that guys who have already enrolled with them.

Debts...yes! I'll probably have at least £30k debt at the end of it all inc. TR.

To go fATPL or not to go?!

Comments appreciated. (Note to WWW - Please keep chin up and give nice positive advice should you read this :) )

heli_port

8th Jul 2008, 11:49

AceD3 go for it m8! I work in the front office of a major bank and i hear loads of negative news but it hasn't deterred me! but beware we could be spending some time instructing...

:ok:

Tony Hirst

8th Jul 2008, 12:30

AceD3,
Okay, so we're heading for a recession it seems...I'm 33 and decided that I need to get out of IT before it eats anything left of me and follow my dream career of flying a jet.I started out in 2002 aged 35 when things wern't looking too brilliant but at least the right side of 2001, then again I missed out on the seemingly huge amount of recruitment that occured in 2006.

Finally finished my IT career with an unexpected offer last March after going through the process part-time and progressing said IT career. Now half way through line training with a 737 operator. In short, go for it, but before you do I suggest you get yourself checked out with a GAPAN assessment and be prepared for a lot of trials and tribulations, many delays, a lot of expense (much more than whatever number you have in your head right now) and a hell of a lot of fun.

Rest assured, early indications are that an airline career blows the souless slog that is IT into the weeds.

BitMoreRightRudder

8th Jul 2008, 12:42

I can't help but admire those people on this thread who are still positive and are willing to go ahead with their training. If I were you I wouldn't do it, but that is easy for me to say. It takes guts (and a degree of insanity), and although you are going against the advice of anyone who knows what they are talking about, (and despite some of the more vociferous protestations, WWW IS certainly better qualified than most to have an opinion based on his own experiences) if you have thought long and hard and still want to go ahead, then you may as well get on with it.

And at 33 if you really feel you have to start now... just be aware that this is the worst time for as long as many people can remember to be starting out.

what do you reckon on my chances getting into an airline end of next year, beginning 2010

No one knows, and no-one can answer that. That's the whole point, start training now and it is a huge leap of faith. The overwhelming likelihood is that you will find it very difficult to find an airline job for the next few years.

Artie Fufkin

8th Jul 2008, 12:43

AceD3,

If you think everyone is being negative now, just give it a few months.

When I started training, we were at the trough of the last downturn, there were no jobs what so ever and anyone who even dared suggest they were thinking about starting training were mauled to pieces by a very bitter, angry and depressed bunch of unemployed low hours fATPLs.

I started looking into training in 2003, to start mid 2004, to finish during the recruitment season of 2005. I was told by the pprune masses (under an old login name) that I was a complete idiot who had more money than sense and that I was a "lamb to the slaughter" for the marketing guys at the flight schools. In line with my research, 2005 turned out to be the start of the upturn and I walked pretty much straight into a job. Timing is absolutely everything. Lots of jobs, relatively low numbers of newly qualifieds.

I would argue that the downturn hasn't even remotely bottomed out and there is no real honest ability to see when the jobs for low hours fATPLs will be back in abundance again. Best advise would be hold fire for now. Some would say I was lucky (I was) but there is a certain amount of creating your own luck by making a genuine and honest estimate of when the good times will be back and coordinating training with that. Now is most certainly not the time.

PPRuNe Towers

8th Jul 2008, 12:51

Due to the nature of the beast there's a very high turnover in this forum and this leads to a very poor collective memory.

During the time frame Artie mentions it was WWW talking up the pilot market portents. He could hear, feel and smell it coming and let everyone know.

And being WWW he let you know repeatedly:}:}:}

Rob

boogie-nicey

8th Jul 2008, 12:54

It's certainly very interesting to hear the informative contributions of many in this thread both from an aviation and financial perspective. Though I am far from offering any experienced based opinion from either of these aspects I am nonetheless concerned at the absence throughout of the keyword we refer to as Iran. I am of the belief that this single variable could have a far more tsunami effect on things than the relatively simple economic vibes we are discussing.

When you have an outgoing president more than happy to pull the trigger and let the common man and woman suffer the economic backlash of such actions then I raise more than an eyebrow. When unnamed sources begin commenting on 'imminent' or always suffixing media communications with "but we won't rule out military action" then I am more than concerned for the fragility of the aviation industry and begin thinking seriously about my future and that of my family. With so many pivotal if not vital interests well within Iran's radius we could be in real trouble. When that first Iranian missile shoots across the tanker navigating the just 23 mile wide hormuz strait then insurance will evaporate and the financial markets will PANIC. The cost of oil will make $200 a barrell look like a Christmas present. Those that stated they had been mislead about the Iraq war seem to be stepping straight back into line again for another mistake of epic proportions, wisdom it seems exists only in hindsight.

Such a scenario would wipe out any roads leading into aviation. I'm thinking big picture here and not the technical orientated commentry of previous posters who are spot on with their views. I may not be a building inspector but I know that blazing building is going to fall. I may not be food scientist but know that the food lying on the kitchen floor is going to do more than turn you green :p I'm sure you get the picture.

scroggs

8th Jul 2008, 13:39

thirtysomething please don't take anything I said personally! I can't possibly lay the blame for any of this at your feet in reality, but I do feel that the financial sector took its more vulnerable customers for a ride without setting up the safety nets that such risky practises should have required. It's fine to cry 'caveat emptor' and then fleece your target if they are as educated and savvy as yourself, but many - most - of those caught in the sub-prime fallout are as naive and innocent as they seem. As you and I both intimate, many wannabes are equally naive and innocent of financial matters, and will gloss over the details in the rush to secure finance for flying training - hence all the warnings on this thread.

As for losing my house, well, you can call it lack of forethought if you like. I call it just being a normal working man. Sadly, I'm like the majority of the working population - I have a house bought with considerable equity using a mortgage that is a low multiple of my income. all very sensible and normal - and if I lose my income, I will no longer be able to service the debt. Boo hoo. Very sad for me - though all it means in reality is that I trade down to a smaller house and no debt. Sadder for the financial industry, though, as they lose a sound, reliable customer with a long term interest commitment. And they'll lose thousands - maybe millions - of others too. That's a lot of cash flow out the window, and the asset base gets written down to boot.

Anyway, that's all by the by. Thanks for your contribution; it was more appreciated than I think you believe!

Scroggs

Re-Heat

8th Jul 2008, 13:43

Somewhat contradictory to all the above, but I believe that worrying about wars is over-the-top.

Simply put, war does not cost the global economy as much in lost output as one might think: defence spending clearly rises to balance the effect of lower normal spending, and such incursions tend to be in rather specific regions rather than global. Iran has no friends other than Syria who would fight with it, pitted against the US, UK, Saudi, Pakistan and (potentially) Russia.

AceD3 - have a long think about which schools to use and which route to go before you start (and do the GAPAN test so that you can at least focus on your weaker areas). Why not do it in chunks, working between the modules so as to minimise your debt burden? Devoting a set period of time between contract work to each module (at an airfield with good instructors, availability and weather) will allow you to progress in minimal time.

scroggs

8th Jul 2008, 13:49

Actually, B-N has a good point. Iran may have few friends, but it has a lot of oil, and it is able to disrupt the transportation of oil from Iraq, Kuwait, UAE and eastern Saudi Arabia by closing the Straits of Hormuz. If that didn't send the oil price through the roof, then nothing would!

Scroggs

AceD3

8th Jul 2008, 14:42

Hmm hmm hmmm....that's my thoughts on the holding off fATPL.

Can someone give me a link to the GAPAN test info please? Can someone also explain GAPAN?

I don't start the ATPL ground school until November this year. It runs until July '09 where I'll sit the remainder of the exams. Following a successful pass, then I'll start the flying training. Most probably in the US due to costs etc.

So give it another 18 months from now, I should have a JAA fATPL albeit low hours.

So where do I go from here? I could do what others have done and get an instructor rating and instruct until I have a lot more hours, or I could pay for a type rating in the hope that I'll get lucky and get into an airline...who knows.

A friend of mine who flies an airbus from the UK, suggested it might be easier to get a job flying a citation etc..it could be based out the UK but at the end of the day, it's jet hours! And if needs must, could apply to an airline after a 1000 hours or so.

At the end of the day, I'm 33, have 13 years IT experience, no mortgage, no kids and no strings. If it all fails, I could at least fall back into IT until something else comes up.

You know what also and I'm not sure of the reasons why a lot of pprune users aren't flying in an airline, but at the end of my fATPL, I'll be the guy out there buying Flight International each week, emailing my CV to each and every airline listed...doing something about it. Afterall, I've just spent a bloody fortune, I'm not going to be sitting around waiting for them to come to me!

With all those 50+ year old captains out there that will be retiring soon, airlines will be recruiting younger FO's - I plan to be one of them.

Out of interest Tony Hirst :) a lot of expense (much more than whatever number you have in your head right now) - how much are you thinking in your head?

These are my current fATPL calculations (all include some contingency, especially the ME IR)

ME IR (UK) - £20000
CPL (USA) - £8000
ME / Night - (USA )£2700
ATPL (UK) - £2500
MCC (UK) - £2000
Exams (UK) - £1000
CAA Flight Test Exams (inc 1 resit) - £2000
PPL Hour Building - £3000
Type Rating (USA/UK) - £15000 - 25000

Any takers?

Re-Heat Thanks for your advice :)

rons22

8th Jul 2008, 15:25

Worked for Siemens on a big project and seemed to me like top and stable company. Can't believe they are affected too.

link (http://www.mail.com/Article.aspx?articlepath=APNews\Top-Headlines\20080708\Germany-Siemens.xml&cat=topheadlines&subcat=&pageid=1)

boogie-nicey

8th Jul 2008, 16:14

Hey Rons22, good one to see you involved in a project with such a mutlinational:D With regards to the company well maybe it's because they are prepared to take these hard decisions that keeps them afloat and dynamic. Compare that to our dithering political fools at Westminster where they delay the inevitable until it's too late to the boat has beegun to sink.

However such stories have been circulating for sometime with the BBC cleverly choosing to sideline them. The BBC have done much to distract the public from the perils that lay ahead and such stories or that of companies moving abroad are selectively ommitted. When things are so bad even the BBC can't sweep it under the mat anymore and then the stories and more importantly sentiment really comes out causing panic to a jittery public. At a time of such dire prospects only the BBC could increase executive salaries - but I digress.

Aviation will have to adopt a new business model sooner rather than later with personnel being outsourced i.e. agencies and brought in when and where they're needed. This will reduce the burden of cost on an airline and further prevent stoppages through industrial action. Equipment could also be subject to a different manner of utilisation. But most importantly they're going to have to really pull their finger out with regards to fuel burn or should I say type of fuel burn ;)

Wee Weasley Welshman

8th Jul 2008, 17:11

I promise that I will once again be talking of the upturn. When it happens. I will once again be talking about 'a golden age for wannabe recruitment'. I'm really not some kind of panic laden doom pessimist.

I foresaw this recession and house price crash and sold my house last April and moved my pension as a result. I predicted Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley months before. I said so and I wrote it here and elsewhere. The next part will be the recession and come the winter it will be the airline bankruptcies. How bad it will be is uncertain but it will be fairly close the early 1990's I think.

As people have said - timing is everything in this business. A lot of Wannabes still believe the rather outdated theory that by your early 30's you are getting too long in the tooth. This is nonsense. The most important thing is to be qualifying just as recruitment picks up and be fresh and ready to go. If I could predict trend timings accurately enough to be of any use to you though I wouldn't be here as I'd be a billionaire.

Take no comfort from how things are today. It is 2009 that you really need to worry about. That is shaping up to look really awful.

Just avoid big debts.

WWW

cirruscrystal

8th Jul 2008, 18:39

AceD3 - You must be mad, as i posted before working for a small charter company based, we are having an increasing number of speculative CVs from numerous type rated and experienced pilots, aswell as usual newbies..

In my view, go ahead with the training if your main concern is not having regrets that you didnt try to achieve your dream, which in itself is a fair motivation. Do not go ahead if you want a job in aviation as you will not get one is the stark truth - Instructing, airlines - NO, Charter definately no due to CAA regs.

Philpaz

8th Jul 2008, 20:24

thirtysomething sorry but I couldnt resist to criticise your view quote ´The people who lose their homes are the people who should not have bought them in the first place´your comment seems to me selfish. I understand selfishness. But I can´t understand limiting others choices.

I agree with it to an extent, people that cant manage there money, re-mortgage to the max to spend on a new Audi/BMW or just get a mortgage beyond there means shouldn't be allowed to get themselves in to a situation like that. It is the banks responsibility to asess these people and they have been too eager to hand out the cash. The blame lies with both partys equally in my oppinion, the banks have a responsibility to the share holders, the savers and the borrowers to be sensible with the float, and the borrowers have a responsibility to borrow within there means so that if the un-thinkable happens (which it inevitably has) they will still be able to make the repayments. All are at fault for the current climate....But it has happened before and it will happen again.

Paz

rons22

8th Jul 2008, 20:31

I agree about the employment chances comment above. CAA issued about 1200 CPL and 1200 ATPL licenses in 2007 alone and similar numbers in 2005 or 2006. About 7000-8000 pliots in 3 years. :{
And there were about 10,000 (before recession) pilot jobs in all of the UK. :ugh:
Me thinks, even if no single pilot came out of the production line anymore, we have enough pilots for next 50 years.

Anyone can advise me on how to become CAA examiner as this is probably the only job where I can see the growing demand in future? :}

MIKECR

8th Jul 2008, 20:36

And the oil price is slowly creeping down again. Now back at $135 per barrel from the record $150 price last week. Short lived perhaps?? A minor blip in the grand scheme of things?? Will it hit $150?? Will Iran declare war on the world? If only we had a crystal ball! Never mind, im to Lidl or Aldi for a pint of milk and a loaf of bread...!

cirruscrystal

8th Jul 2008, 20:39

Also being a member of local flying club, many of the good folks down there are very experienced pilots with many hundreds of hours, whom must have considered commercial at some point, but for various reasons decided not to follow.

I think flying and owning a PPL with an IMC is one of the best things for anybody considering this ATPL route. Dont give OFT and others all of your crispies, keep them, buy a share in an aircraft and get your kicks flying when you like and under your say so, DONT GET SUCKED INTO THE ATPL BLACKHOLE and end up eating dog food, feeling bitter.

I think 98% of people considering commercial now would be quite fulfilled by this, without kicking themselves afterwards.

Philpaz

8th Jul 2008, 21:14

I was chatting to a friend at the weekend that has just bought a house on an interest only mortgage. I said "are you mad?" His logic behind it was that renting was throwing his money away and at least this way he owns his own house. I was quick to point out that actually the bank owns it and he is in essence paying the bank his rent (which has now gone up 150 a month to when he rented) all the while his home is losing value. Interest only mortgages only make sense in an economic upturn and even then i dont agree with them.
But this is where we get back on to the subject of responsible lending, he is a seasonal cabin crew member with a far from busy roster that will be laid off over the winter and yet a bank saw fit to lend him 110k on a 40 year mortgage????? In my oppinion it is madness from both partys to have gone ahead with this in the current climate, as i said in my last post, these mistakes have been made before and they will be made again.

What about the Governments and their policies?

Expecting the goverment to make anything better is laughable. They have a massive defocit (spelling??) from the lack of stamp duty and are expecting it to worsen with the new payback scheme for the 10p tax law. On top of this there is growing pressure to cut fuel tax, they have frozen the idea of raising road tax and fuel tax which were all part of the budget but they will likely increase borrowing and spending in a last gasp attempt to stay in power while in the process wrecking any chance of a speedy recovery from the now inevitable recession. Unfortunately the voting public (being the only ones with time on there hands (DHSS)) will all carry on voting Labour as they were brought up believing that they are the peoples party. The working mans party, how wrong they were and how their hands must be burning now(though sadly not enough for their small minds to notice).
Rant over.

Paz

MIKECR

8th Jul 2008, 21:24

Philpaz,

Interest only mortgages are not as bad as they seem, particularly if your on a 'no ties' base rate tracker. Rates have fallen recently and are predicted to either fall again, or at the very least stay the same, til the remainder of the year. If the base rate rises, jump ship.

Philpaz

8th Jul 2008, 21:53

I can understand the logic when house prices are rising as your investment is rising but when they are falling its madness but the same logic applies to all mortgages i suppose. I just thought that if he thinks rent is throwing money away then his logic is slightly flawed, as he is paying out more money on a mortgage that will inevitably become negative equity. If/When he does decide to re-mortgage to a repayment scheme they will value his property and he may well end up with a 110%+ mortgage that will attract a not so desirable interest rate (being sub prime). At least if he was on a repayment scheme he would have the possibility of paying off the equity that he had lost.
I'm not a big fan of Interest only schemes but i'm sure that in the property boom there are people that saved a small fortune by buying houses that increased in value buy several factors. I personally am still of the (old fashioned) oppinion that a house is a home not an investment, and as such would rather be paying off my debt rather than tending to my investment.
Call me crazy...

Paz

MIKECR

8th Jul 2008, 22:05

I think its each case on its own merits. I renewed my mortgage recently and deliberately went for a base rate tracker. I have no ties or penalties for an early redemption. I have aleady seen my mortgage repayments decrease within the last couple of months, hopefuly(a big hope admittedly!) the base rate may just drop a further 0.25% by the end of the year. The moment however it starts to rise, i'll be jumping ship for something else.

The final nail in the coffin for all of us will be if mortgage rates rise like they did in the last recession. Its in everyone's interest's that it doesnt, time will tell though....!

Wee Weasley Welshman

8th Jul 2008, 22:16

IF the banks had been constrained by the LAW as they once were, to only lend 3.5 times your proven actual salary for a mortgage then there would be no credit crisis and no sub-prime.

The lawyers who live in the politicians pockets allowed the bankers to do this.

It suited each party.

Google MONEY AS DEBT and click on the first return - its a uTube clip and it might just show you how the world is really run. Its here:

Money As Debt (http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279)

Just stick the first 3 mins and it gets really informative - its the red pill.

WWW

MIKECR

8th Jul 2008, 22:24

I stuck 3 minutes and my intelligence is now insulted.

I did like the masonic thing going on with the ball and chain though.... i wonder what the relevance there is.

thirtysomething

8th Jul 2008, 22:32

All very interesting points of view and none of them are wrong in a way. It seems to have turned out though that banks didnt quite understand the risks ( E.g Callan in Lehman or the Rock or Bear Stearns B and B ) . The banks are not in the business of losing money or going bust,, but both are happening and i think there will be more bellies up in the "shark tank". The typical scenario before a pop is always excess of both greed an optimism leading to poor judgement ( the Nasdaq has never made it back to its all time highs of 2001 the best example of excess there is ) , humans should know better but dont and generally gravitate to playing a losing game. Not learning from history and all that.

WWW you are right , but there also would not be aviation as you / we know it as everything since 2001 has been built on credit so it suited everybody. The bubble that is now popping was created and saved us from times being much worse after the 2001 downturn. These times are not avoidable as bubbles are created by one mechanism or another and have done so going back a very long time. The risk is now that we are due what i call a super pop or depression. Not possible you say ? My sister who is doing economics in Trinity college Dublin said that all her text books and her professors were saying a bank run was a thing of the past... that was late last year.

That conversation is a whole other topic for jet blast in a way. Here comes the pop to the upside I talked about, If you see oil break below 100 a barrel then things change.

I think the best piece of advise I have seen here is do an FATPL if your happy theres little to no chance of getting a job,, getting one is a bonus. I wanted some sort of odds and I didnt see them so i stuck with what im doing for now and i think by the time its time to get cracking ill be too old. :rolleyes: The other one was about timing it a bit better than the start of a recession.

Everything is my opinion and reserve the right to be wrong which is why i say look to the averaged or longer term trend ( months ) in the market to see reasoned opinion from the pros. The market generally leads the real economy by about nine months which fits with what were starting to see now. Rumbles started in late 2007 but its now that airlines are starting to scale back ( do accept oil has made things worse though ). Like the video , its worth sticking it out just to see how credit and magic money is behind everything and why reductions in the number of mortgage approvals or the " credit squeeze " is bad bad news.

spinnaker

8th Jul 2008, 23:41

WWW,

I now understand why I am so poor. I have no debt! I have also failed to help the economy and create wealth by refusing to take out loans.

When I opened my first bank account, I was not offered overdraft facilities. 10 years later, I opened another account and was offered overdraft facilities. Three months ago I opened three more accounts and was asked how much overdraft I required. How times have changed. The look of shock from the banks when I now say I don't want overdrafts, is the same look of shock, when I first asked for the facility 30 years ago.

Looks like Bradford and Bingly are next to go down the tubes. But if the government bail them out with borrowed money, that should create more wealth in the economy..... Wont it?

David Horn

9th Jul 2008, 04:52

I think flying and owning a PPL with an IMC is one of the best things for anybody considering this ATPL route. Dont give OFT and others all of your crispies, keep them, buy a share in an aircraft and get your kicks flying when you like and under your say so, DONT GET SUCKED INTO THE ATPL BLACKHOLE and end up eating dog food, feeling bitter.But surely this implies that many people are taking the full ATPL course are doing it solely for the kicks of flying? While I appreciate that there are a few people who this might apply to, I feel that these represent a tiny minority compared to others who are looking at the bigger picture.

I do agree that, recession or not, the potential job market has been oversold by all the FTOs for the past couple of years. Ultimately, as others have said, they all exist to make a profit and the more students they can get through their doors the better.

On top of this, employees of these organisations rely on the airline industry as much as we (as student pilots) will be relying on it for our first jobs. They're not going to portray an overly negative picture and shoot themselves in the foot. Even if, in the short term, they turn out a glut of students who fail to find jobs, they've been paid for the training regardless...

No one can predict the future. We've been told for years that a recession is due. Is this it? Who can say.

heli_port

9th Jul 2008, 06:41

From my personal experience, the front office staff that i work with are only interested in doing the next deal, the more deals they did the more money they bought into our bank and hence better bonuses (i can testify to that :)). Management didn't really understand what us 'youngens' were doing and on several occassions when we were launching different 'debt products' i and others did say that if the lending stopped we would be in trouble! They didn't care less what the outcome was and now the ":mad: is hitting the fan" they are looking for people to blame.

Management, the FSA & the Bank of england didn't understand these complex products until it was too late :ugh:

Right now we need to take the lessons learnt from this mess, and never repeat it but somehow i think they will be forgotten in the long run when another genius quant comes up up with another way to sell debt..

Right back to some stories of note:

1) Oil prices fall by more than $5 (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7496637.stm)

The impact of a global economic slowdown on demand for oil has caused prices to fall by more than $5, with London seeing the largest drop.

2) More job cuts at UK housebuilders (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7496814.stm)

Bovis Homes and Redrow have become the latest UK housebuilders to announce a sweeping reduction in their workforces.

3) Back to the '70s? (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7493330.stm)

http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn3/heli_port/70s.gif

4) High-speed trains seize short-haul market as fuel cost cripples the airlines (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article4296525.ece)

The lounge was thronged with bleary-eyed and grumpy suits looking in vain for seats. The endless queue for coffee snaked past whimpering children and inconsiderate backpackers. As the PA speakers announced imminent departure, the throng became a mêlée at the exit - an escalator had jammed.

5) Southwest allies with Canada's WestJet in landmark pact (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/07/08/225156/southwest-allies-with-canadas-westjet-in-landmark-pact.html)

Southwest Airlines has inked a memorandum of understanding with Canadian low-cost carrier WestJet that will pave the way for the two Boeing 737 operators to initiate codeshare flights across both networks by late next year.

Lurking123

9th Jul 2008, 07:01

Dear Mr Internet Man. Please don't bother with Filtered Searches or RSS feeds anymore. We have a chap called Heli Port who does it all for us.

Thanks

Lurky
:):):):):):):):):)

JB007

9th Jul 2008, 07:31

Back to 70's gets my vote! Application to Laker and British Caledonian on it's way!!!!http://www.clicksmilies.com/s1106/cool/cool-smiley-027.gif

AceD3

9th Jul 2008, 08:40

God how I love reading all the comments.

You must be mad, as i posted before working for a small charter company based, we are having an increasing number of speculative CVs from numerous type rated and experienced pilots, aswell as usual newbies..

cirruscrystal...the CVs you receive...are you getting any fresh CTC/Oxford guys applying for jobs? (Just curious as to what these guys are expecting after paying £60-70k)

In my view, go ahead with the training if your main concern is not having regrets that you didnt try to achieve your dream, which in itself is a fair motivation. Do not go ahead if you want a job in aviation as you will not get one is the stark truth - Instructing, airlines - NO, Charter definately no due to CAA regs.

I shall give it my best shot and hopefully with friends in the airline, they can make recommendations nearer the time. I do know for sure I could get instructing at my local airport.

piperx

9th Jul 2008, 09:07

With reference to the number of CPLs and ATPLs issued in 2005/6/7 you need to realise that the ATPL is the next level from the CPL. i.e. you hold a CPL (fATPL) and once it’s unfrozen it will become an ATPL, this will count on the CAAs figures are two licence issues so its not as bad as you think!

cirruscrystal

9th Jul 2008, 10:44

The AOC we have adopted has min of 700 PIC (200 ME) so newly qualified pilots are not eligible atall. You will find that this is the nomral minimum for charter as air taxi requires this under CAA regs. One cannot gain safety pilot time as the aircraft are single pilot operation, as are most charters so limits charter entry generally to experienced.

I am sure that you might be able to pickup some work instructing if you have a good relationship with your school.

My thoughts on it all are that if one can afford the training and it is a concern that regrets will be had later in life then should definately complete. It is not a career to follow if already in a good career in my view as aspirations can more than be achieved by flying privately and as someone said you wont get a job, you might be one of the lucky say 5-10% and you will. Even PPL training is now being hauled back due to economic situation and less people spending on private flying training.

From the guys i trained with and have kept in contact with, i am the only one employed in aviation, everybody else has gone back to old careers. All of them perfectly able and good pilots i am sure. I am only working part time with charter company and continue to work as a teacher part time, to provide properly for my family and keep the sensible career open.

cirruscrystal

9th Jul 2008, 10:47

AceD3

9th Jul 2008, 12:19

thanks cirruscrystal for making me feel so much better! :hmm:

there will always be an aviation industry and pilots new 'will' be required. I'm not giving up yet! :) Maybe when I'm 50 I'll consider not starting a career in an airline ;)

That is my only concern but is just a concern, having at least 700+hrs TT and having sufficent ME hrs. It's all £££££ but only one life.

Can someone give me this weeks winning lottery numbers? :ok: I'll be entirely grateful and spend it wisely :)

Wee Weasley Welshman

9th Jul 2008, 17:25

http://thecrownblogspot.*************/2008/07/neil-skewers-jowell.html

This is very speculative but if you watch the start of this clip Andrew Neil, hosting The Daily Politics show today, he says house prices are down 11% year on year which is not true. Its just under 7%. BUT the Halifax house price figures for June are STILL not published. Its never been later than the 3rd of the month.. They should have been out nearly a week ago. Why the delay?

Is it that the month of June has seen a 4% fall in the average house price?!

Did Andrew Neil speak of a currently embargoed report?

All will be revealed before tomorrows MPC meeting I suspect. If its anything above the record 2.5% monthly fall we say a few weeks ago you will see PANIC level drops in consumer confidence.

Perhaps the US points to what is to come - Levi jeans saw their profits drop 98% for the last quarter compared to the same quarter in 2007. Americans are down to cutting out their spending on denim.. Now THAT'S bad.

I think the evidence of the downturn is clear for all and uncontested. What we may have now is evidence of a full, sharp, sustained, Recession.

WWW

rons22

9th Jul 2008, 22:10

More pilot news
For any open job you're competing against 6,000 or 7,000 people from across the country," said John Stemmler, head of the Frontier Airline Pilots Association. "So you're going to be up against some stiff competition."

link (http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/jul/08/aviation-workers-face-tough-times/)

heli_port

10th Jul 2008, 05:33

Crude oil prices have risen on news that Iran successfully test-fired long and medium-range missiles.
In London, Brent crude rose by over $2 to $138.50 a barrel, while US light, sweet crude rose by the same amount to $138.12 a barrel.

BBC NEWS | Business | Crude rises on Iran missile tests (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7496823.stm)

Lurking123

10th Jul 2008, 08:20

Sorry for peeing on a little of your speculation WWW, but the Halifax has just announced a 2% drop in house prices. You should consider a job writing 'red top' headlines. :)

Heli, we must be reading different rags?

Oil Price Seesaws, Ends Up A Penny -- Courant.com (http://www.courant.com/business/hc-oil0710.artjul10,0,5402622.story)

Oil prices end two-day decline (http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/2008/07/09/oil.html)

Grass strip basher

10th Jul 2008, 08:40

2% down in a single month is 24% annualised... :{:ooh:
we never saw month on month falls this rapid back in the early nineties... we are moving into unchartered waters...

Lurking123

10th Jul 2008, 08:58

Er, no its not. The numbers are still bad but you need to do a (reverse) compound interest calculation.

Alex Whittingham

10th Jul 2008, 15:16

They are 6.1% down on a year ago.

Grass strip basher

10th Jul 2008, 15:34

Lurking 123 thanks for that useful reponse... wouldn't want people thinking anything was wrong in the UK housing market.... I stand corrected, the numbers I posted are slightly out but I stand by the conclusion being robust.

.... house prices are down 4.5% in the last 2 months alone... stick that pace of decline into your formula and see what drops out... unless it is a miraculous "turd polishing" equation you will find the same conclusion drops out the bottom.... i.e. conditions in the housing market are really really sh*t.... ask any of the 1000s of people who have been laid off by the UK housebuilders in the last week alone.

...the ability for some people to not see the wood for the trees never ceases to amaze me.... but I admire the "stiff upper lip" British approach.... reminds me of this famous sketch.... house prices down 4.5% in 2 months... tis but a flesh wound... The Holy Grail: Scene 4 (http://www.mwscomp.com/movies/grail/grail-04.htm)

:D

potkettleblack

10th Jul 2008, 16:37

Northwest cutting staff by 2,500 or around 8%. Attempting to achieve the cuts through natural attrition and possibly some redundancies. Parking up aircraft as well as most of the US carriers. No figures given as to how many pilots will be affected.

Now if I was a US airline pilot I would be heading east and either finding a partner with a EU passport or a helpful EASA member state that rubber stamps FAA licences and gives working extensions.

With the strength of the Euro I can see Europe being an attractive hunting ground for our US cousins and if I was an employer I would be rubbing my hands together.

cirruscrystal

10th Jul 2008, 19:12

Potkettle - As someone posted 6-7000 potential applicants for every pilot job in the UK, newbies competing with experienced type raters now aswell:uhoh:

clear prop!!!

10th Jul 2008, 20:20

Well then….nice to see a truly balanced 'National' viewpoint on the UK’s situation.
Here we are in Scotland with a 0.6% monthly increase in house prices. (crap, but not as crap as the rest of the UK!) More oil than the UK needs,… regional airlines recruiting ( even low hour FI’s) …maybe the SNP have got it right!!:)
Not to mention , no student fees,.. no prescription charges,.. no bridge tolls and Tartan Airlines have just ordered 50 x 787’s;) and ….the border closes Tuesday!:E

Hey…the upturn is upon us:ok:

G-SPOTs Lost

10th Jul 2008, 21:16

piper x

Im afraid you are incorrect, just cos you've passed your ATPL theory and done a cpl/ir skills test does not mean that you have a ATPL issued on the caa figures.

Once you have your CPL there are still quite a few hoops that need jumping thru before you have your ATPL.

You also need to apply for it, the CAA assess your application and if you meet the criteria you get an ATPL issued. Then it racks up an ATPL issue on the stats.....

Wee Weasley Welshman

10th Jul 2008, 23:07

Actually Alex they are down 6.1% on where they were a year ago in 2007 which was still a rising market.

Monthly % drops in UK average house prices pubished by the Halifax building society (it excludes all repo'd properties sold at auction).

Jan 0
Feb -0.4
Mar -2.5
Apr -1.3
May -2.5
Jun -2.5
Jul -2

Since New Years Day 2008 they are down 11.2%. The worst slump in recorded UK house price history...

We are in a full speed crash which is accelerating and has well over a year to run. The media is still asking whether the 'dip' will continue but then the same media was saying a crash for 2008 was 'highly unlikely'.

Given that August and Sept are still to come and were rising in 2007 even if house prices now miraculously flatline there will still be year on year falls to come.

WWW

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs/generated/homepage.png

OR;

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44820000/gif/_44820230_house_prices_10_07_08.gif

spinnaker

11th Jul 2008, 08:30

BBC NEWS | Business | Job cuts at housebuilder Barratt (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7498978.stm)

Most definitely in un-charted waters now. Looking at historical data, house prices recessions are biting deeper and taking longer to recover. Maybe we're in for 5 to 6 year recession with the average property bottoming out at £110k.

and ….the border closes Tuesday!;)

AceD3

11th Jul 2008, 08:30

All these pretty graphs and percentages are making me hungry - yum yum :ok:

Doom and Gloom '08.

Alex Whittingham

11th Jul 2008, 08:48

To be fair, WWW, both graphs show the nationwide figures falling from the middle of last year, Halifax say the figures peaked in August, Nationwide in July. Whilst no-one would disagree with the basic tenet, that prices are falling and probably have a long way to go, don't you think you weaken your arguement by overstating it?

By all means advise caution, but shock headlines about the state of the US domestic airline market have little relevance to what happens in Europe and the middle east, very few europeans would want or be able to look for jobs with the US majors. The same is true of the housing market in the UK. OK, you've made what may be a smart move in selling your house but in your enthusiasm to talk down house prices you are not presenting a balanced picture to wannabees, you (and heliport) are only swamping us with one extreme viewpoint.

That is in fact the crux of the problem. No-one knows what will happen to either the economy or the airline market, there are only opinions. The press tout an alarmist view because it simply makes better headlines, but for every cut-and-paste article there's a quieter voice somewhere with a more moderate opinion. They may be right, they may be wrong, but you are losing the balanced view in your enthusiasm to see house price falls. You didn't, for instance, need to invade the tongue in cheek thread 'Growing evidence that the upturn is upon us' quite so forcefully, let it run, it's just an alternative point of view.

The shame of it is that your basic advice is, as ever, sound. Anyone entering the market now should be aware that there is a probability that jobs will not be so easy to find in a year or two. Stay in employment as long as you can, don't borrow large sums secured against property, be careful. Oh, and never pay an FTO more up front than you can afford to lose.

piperx

11th Jul 2008, 08:55

Just to clarify, what I meant to say is that I held a CPL therefore showed up as a CPL issue in 2003, I have recently unfrozen my ATPL and now show up as an ATPL issue. Two entries on the CAAs statistics but only one pilot.:)

Grass strip basher

11th Jul 2008, 09:11

So those WWW bashers who say that he is alarmist.... pray tell exactly what evidence are you looking for to start to become alarmed yourselves??!

Will it be airlines going bust in Europe? (we have already seen this and it is gathering pace).

The only thing left to turn is passenger numbers and BA short-haul numbers for June is argubly a pretty big crack in the foundations of that particular dyke....

All you "stiff upper lip" types please please please don't just slag someone off for being gloomy... it IS gloomy... be constructive PROVIDE AN ARGUEMENT WHY THE NEXT 2 YEARS ARE NOT GOING TO BE A COMPLETE CAR CRASH FOR JOB OPPORTUNITIES FOR 250 HOUR WANABEES!!.... that is the end game in this debate is it not

Alex Whittingham

11th Jul 2008, 09:46

Well, a 10 minute trawl of the internet gives Easyjet's passenger figures 19.5% up in June on last year. Etihad announced on the 1st of July its figures were 41% up in the first half of the year, Monarch were 5.4% up in June over last year, Turkish Airlines (!) up 15.8% in the first quarter and Ryanair carried 19% more in June 2008 than last year. Lufthansa reports passenger numbers in the first 6 months of 2008 are 5.4% up on the same period last year. In fact, in the UK, only BA seem to be reporting a decline with passenger numbers 2.9% down across the fleet whilst saying 'Long-haul premium and short-haul non-premium continue to be the better performing segments of the business'.

That's what I mean by selective and alarmist reporting. Your serve.

rons22

11th Jul 2008, 09:56

Is this growth by acquistion though?;) GB airways taken over by Easyjet?

scroggs

11th Jul 2008, 09:59

Is this a competition to see how gloomy a prediction you can make?

WWW, your 'house price' figures are from mortgage companies and include only figures from mortgage-financed sales, and compare asking prices not selling prices. And suggesting that real declines are twice as great as even these figures simply because you like a good conspiracy theory is complete claptrap!

For a more balanced view of the housing market, free of the spin of 'HousePriceCrash.com' enthusiasts, take a look at the FT Index (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a4dc91b6-4eae-11dd-ba7c-000077b07658.html)*, which compares selling prices of all properties, whether mortgaged or not. It's conclusion is that prices in June dropped 1.2% (not inconsiderable, I grant you), but that prices nationwide are still marginally above this time last year. That figure is distorted somewhat by London, but the worst decrease was in Ceredigion, recording an annualised reduction of 5.4% over the last three months.

As Alex says, things certainly aren't good, but we don't help anyone by trying to be the one that screams the loudest. Leave that to the red top papers and conspiracy theorists, and let's keep it off Pprune. A balanced view enables a balanced judgement. An extreme view can only allow a distorted judgement.

Scroggs

*You'll need to register to read the whole thing, but it costs nothing.

Alex Whittingham

11th Jul 2008, 10:02

Could be Rons, I don't know. My point was that there's not a balanced view being presented.

scroggs

11th Jul 2008, 10:09

Without giving away anything which is company confidential, my company's experience does not mirror BA's.

Scroggs

Grass strip basher

11th Jul 2008, 10:11

I have no complaints with that post Alex.... it is very constructive and useful.
Just hate the general slagging matches... fight fire with fire and you have sir. :ok:

A and C

11th Jul 2008, 11:25

Thank you for adding a little balance to this thread.

spinnaker

11th Jul 2008, 11:32

....By all means advise caution, but shock headlines about the state of the US domestic airline market have little relevance to what happens in Europe and the middle east, very few europeans would want or be able to look for jobs with the US majors.
You can't take any one country or economy in isolation, what happens in the states, is usually exported to Europe and beyond, so it is MOST relevant. Not only is it that the young wannabees have not seen a recession, but the older population will have not seen one of this magnitude either, we have to refer to the history books. One national builder is on record as saying its the worst for 50 years. I believe them.
The same is true of the housing market in the UK. OK, you've made what may be a smart move in selling your house but in your enthusiasm to talk down house prices you are not presenting a balanced picture to wannabees, you (and heliport) are only swamping us with one extreme viewpoint.
I feel it is a factual viewpoint put by www. In fact my own views may be considered even more extreme than www. Again the housing market should not be taken in isolation. The underlying reason for the decline is down to the banking system going into meltdown and loss of confidence. That is spreading rapidly to other areas of the economy at a pace faster than economists and analysts can keep up with. That is dangerous, because the interbank system is effectively broken. Its not possible for one bank to accurately asses the risk of lending to another bank, so they have massively reduced activity, and any lending activity that does exist, is at a higher interest rate. The Chancellor tried to fix this by injecting credit into the banking system, but as he and his junior ministers do not understand the system, his plans are doomed. AKA Northern Rock, Bradford and Bingly next. After that your guess is as good as mine. I suggest HBOS.

That is in fact the crux of the problem. No-one knows what will happen to either the economy or the airline market, there are only opinions. The press tout an alarmist view because it simply makes better headlines, but for every cut-and-paste article there's a quieter voice somewhere with a more moderate opinion. They may be right, they may be wrong, but you are losing the balanced view in your enthusiasm to see house price falls.

I feel that we do know what will happen to the economy, we just don't know how far it will fall. Certainly worse than the 70's All the evidence is there to support this. Inflation is going up (particularly food) as is unemployment. Both of these issues are not making the headline just yet, but they will as they gather pace. Disposable income is shrinking fast, that means the holidays are first to go. People wont stop taking holidays, those that can still afford it will take cheaper breaks, probably in the home market.

The press. I would usually side with you on this one. I'm surprised that they didn't come out with many of the current stories sooner. There is much more bad news to come from the banking sector. They have been busy drawing up a new system to guarantee debt in the form of bonds in an effort to make the huge loses on the sub-prime sector. I am told the systems fall outside the regulators grasp and is based upon a quick economic recovery. Last quarter of 2008/first quarter 2009 should see this one emerge.

www puts emphasis on the housing market which I feel appropriate to this thread, as its the main source of security for loans for wannabes. My concern is that it is now entirely possible to secure a loan for training, wind up with no job, default on the loan, lose your house and still owe money because of negative equity.

One thing which seems to be missed, is not just the fall in prices, but the massive drop in volumes. Inflation or deflation matters not if there are no buyers, and there are just not the buyers out there. Ignore what the press and the banks say about Scotland holding up, the central belt is in just a bad a state as England, houses are not selling at any price. One lawyer said, and I quote, "The housing market! shove your head in a bucket of sand, after 18 months pop up, see what its like and be ready to shove your head back in."

The shame of it is that your basic advice is, as ever, sound. Anyone entering the market now should be aware that there is a probability that jobs will not be so easy to find in a year or two. Stay in employment as long as you can, don't borrow large sums secured against property, be careful. Oh, and never pay an FTO more up front than you can afford to lose.

Totally agree, I just can't see much or any recruiting for newcomers this winter. You last sentance is so important, I would like to repeat it:
never pay an FTO more up front than you can afford to lose

Alex, please don't take my post as a pop at you, its just my thoughts on what you have written. I benefit from having a background that includes the food industry, airlines, and now farming. I hope that I give a balanced view drawn from previous experiences and the current climate. I know that people will not enjoy reading my thoughts, particularly those coming into the profession, but its how it is. WWW sometimes has an unfortunate writing style, (maybe I do as well) but he is correct.

heli_port

11th Jul 2008, 11:42

Heli_ports RSS feed:

1) Crude Oil Rises to Record on Speculation Israel May Attack Iran (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWHx5JZnCOKw&refer=home)

Oil rallied to a record high of $145.98

2) Thomas Cook cancels airline deal (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7501169.stm)

Thomas Cook has cancelled plans to merge its German charter airline Condor with rival Air Berlin after discussions with the competition regulator

3) Credit crunch 'hits pocket money (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7500203.stm)

Some people are using their savings to pay for daily essentials and cutting their children's pocket money owing to rising bills, according to two surveys

4) UK house prices 'fell 2% in June (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7492689.stm)

UK house prices fell by 2% in June, according to the UK's biggest mortgage lender, the Halifax.

5) Europe to replace nearly 90% of current fleet by 2027: Boeing (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/07/10/225224/europe-to-replace-nearly-90-of-current-fleet-by-2027.html)

Boeing expects almost 90% of aircraft in the current European fleet to be replaced by newer types over the next two decades, underlining the trend laid out in its latest market forecast.

Cheer up its Beerday! :p

MIKECR

11th Jul 2008, 11:57

It really is the end of the world then if someone's pocket money has been cut!

Please....could the papers not come up with smething a bit more juicy or doom n'gloom filled??

Grass strip basher

11th Jul 2008, 12:04

Are but MIKERC there are no doubt wanabees on here who's only income to speak of has only ever been pocket money! The cuts may be very painful... :}

MIKECR

11th Jul 2008, 12:07

Thats very true...my paper round and my £2 a week pocket money! Ah to be young, foolish and naive again!

JB007

11th Jul 2008, 12:57

Cheer up its Beerday!

Best post yet! Funny how life goes on...Goodwood Festival of Speed this weekend guys, i'll be in the 'Oily Rag' from 1200 Local tomorrow if anyone want's to join...http://www.clicksmilies.com/s1106/auto/car-smiley-003.gifhttp://www.clicksmilies.com/s1106/ernaehrung/food-smiley-008.gif

P.s Please note the "Pepsi" drinking Smilie to go with the car!!!

Tony Hirst

11th Jul 2008, 12:58

The underlying reason for the decline is down to the banking system going into meltdown and loss of confidence.
Which is why this is such a load of hot air on the part of the, errrm, experts. There is very little fundementally wrong with the UK and European economies. The US has less influence than once it did. The banks will have to relax thier lending criteria soon or they will start to hemorrhage real money, then their priorities will change. In the not too distant future we'll wonder what all the fuss was about.

Anyway, the current slow down is probably beneficial in the long run, permits a degree of introspection and will probably help some of the Asian economies which are accelerating too quickly too.

As W H Auden suggests, probably better to be a "rider" than a "reader".

boogie-nicey

11th Jul 2008, 15:19

With the reported traffic figures being up I still don't feel that they adequately compensate the rising operating costs one of which is the 'evil mistress' oil. Will these traffic figures hold up I doubt it very much let alone rise any further. Which ever way we look at it we are in for a bumpy ride though the only viable question remaining is how bad and for how long. That's where this speculative thread comes in with it's array of doom merchants, crystal ball reading madam Zelgas and happy-go-lucky brigade who think nothing can possibly go wrong.

heli_port

11th Jul 2008, 16:12

Crude oil has jumped to new record highs above $147, driven by ongoing geopolitical concerns over Iran.
BBC NEWS | Business | Oil hits new high on Iran fears (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7501939.stm)

JB007 if you're buying i'm there! http://www.clicksmilies.com/s1106/auto/car-smiley-003.gifhttp://www.clicksmilies.com/s1106/ernaehrung/food-smiley-008.gif

:ok:

Wee Weasley Welshman

11th Jul 2008, 16:14

Alex I take your point and thank you for providing some balance. By my taking a strong position it has rather helped in dragging the big guns into the debate. A lively thread, like this one, needs Cowboys and Indians.

You suggest I have a vested interest in talking down the housing market. I really don't think my ramblings here will end up in an even greater fall in the housing market. Not really. But you do sell ATPL training courses so you do have a very clear vested interest in Wannabes not all stopping training. I believe your postings are simply made in an effort to help Wannabes - if you will extend the same courtesy to me.

As for the figures I've posted I would contend that they understate the REAL house price falls as all official and mortgage company data totally excludes the hundreds of properties sold by auction every week. There are dozens and dozens of flats and repossessed houses going through each week by order of the mortgagees. In many cases they sell for half what some poor fool paid for them over the last 2 years. None of this is reflected in the published data funnily enough.

Whatever.

I don't really enjoy people attacking my motivations or questioning my interests. My job here is done. Its all plain as can be and from here on in only an utter idiot would be unaware of the dire period ahead for the house market, economy and airlines.

When I started six months ago this was not clear to many. Most of the media and the spin was all the other way and there was a useful purpose in my forcefully putting me gloomy message out to Wannabes.

I'm happy I did my bit to warn a few people of the coming danger.

I'll end my bit now.

WWW :cool:

rubik101

11th Jul 2008, 17:02

Having follwed this thread for many months now, it seems that there are denyers and there are realists.
Whilst it might be nice for ones nerves to be a denyer, it seems to me to be a foolish attitude. Looking backwards, over many years, shows that realists like WWW are absolutely correct in their assesment of the immediate future.
Looking even further ahead and using the same information as has been used by other realists on this site, I will give you my take on the next five years or so.
With a few notable and well financed and properly run exceptions, the next few years will see the loss of many, many aircrew/airline and associated jobs.
Recruitment and training will be the first to suffer, followed soon by job losses in the less efficient and poorly managed airlines.
Restricting expansion, delaying or canceling mergers and severe route cut-backs will lead to drastic contraction of fleets: the older, less efficient aircraft going first.
With fuel at twice the price it was two years ago, I cannot see a way back from the present situation, even if fuel prices stabilise, or even more unlikely, reduce again.
The public perception has changed considerably over the recent past. Airlines are seen as polluters, even if the numbers show that the contribution is only a small percentage of the total.
Demand for business and leisure travel will always exist but simply not anywhere near the current totals. The surcharges and tax on a ticket to Asia from UK now amounts to 65% of the total price. Not sustainable!
House price deflation, negative equity, tight borrowing, high unemployment, rapidly rising energy costs, tightening fuel supplies with expanding demand and falling stock markets all lead to the inevitable conclusion that we are heading for a massive correction in all aspects of modern life.
I will be pleasantly surprised, nay amazed, if 60% of the present capacity still operates in five years time.
If you have an alternative to flying, either as you approach the end of your flying career, or before you embark on it, then take it sooner, rather than later.
Good luck to us all.

Alex Whittingham

11th Jul 2008, 17:32

WWW, I'll go for that. I've stayed out of this so far because there's an obvious charge of self-interest that can be levelled at me. I know that, ultimately, we're both trying to put across the same message to wannabees, be careful and don't bet the farm.

Wee Weasley Welshman

11th Jul 2008, 17:44

Funnily enough that's what I've done today - bought a farm!

WWW :)

Lafyar Cokov

11th Jul 2008, 18:31

Ohhhhhh dear, a very bad time to buy a farm..... Have a look at this

"Farms set for bad times" (http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=TTsKerYj6FQ) - Daily Mail, 11/07/08

"Only an Idiot Would Buy a Farm In This Climate" (http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=TTsKerYj6FQ) - Express 10/7/08

"Why Oh Why Oh Why Do These Wannabee Farmers Who Don't have A Clue About The Farming Industry Mortgage Themselves To The Hilt To Buy A Farm" (http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=TTsKerYj6FQ) - Enourmous Eloquent Englishman

"Nice Tits On Page 3 - PS Bad Time To Buy a Farm This Week" (http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=TTsKerYj6FQ) - The Sun

Wee Weasley Welshman

11th Jul 2008, 18:36

Its a leisure purchase, not an investment.

Thank you,

WWW

ps Get Orf My Land! :p

Lafyar Cokov

11th Jul 2008, 18:39

That'll be a bite then!!!! :}

heli_port

11th Jul 2008, 18:57

Are their lots of sheep on your farm www :E

BitMoreRightRudder

11th Jul 2008, 18:59

Here we go!

cumulus

11th Jul 2008, 19:24

Funnily enough that's what I've done today - bought the farm!

WWW

Eh? you mean to say that you're dead?:confused:
Now that's what I call superlative message board functionality - a seance engine!:ok:

Wee Weasley Welshman

11th Jul 2008, 19:53

Its a leisure purchase, not an investment.

Did that go over your heads? :suspect:

WWW-in-Wellies.

heli_port

12th Jul 2008, 07:10

WWW-in-Wellies.
I can just imagine you with a pitchfork saying "ooohhh arrr" http://images.shaunthesheep.com/forum/smilies/timmy.pnghttp://images.shaunthesheep.com/forum/smilies/shaun_v2.pnghttp://www.anime-planet.com/forum/images/smilies/cowsleep.gif

FTSE 100 ends day in bear market (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7502450.stm)

redsnail

12th Jul 2008, 09:23

WWW, so you bought a leisure centre? I guess you need to wear Levis 501s? :p

HappyFran

12th Jul 2008, 09:47

WWW - The wannabees economist buying a farm.!! but not an investment :suspect::suspect:.me thinks...inheiritance tax ?? :confused:. Not getting concerned for your mortality are you :eek::}

spinnaker

12th Jul 2008, 14:44

WWW, you did what? You bought a farm! as a leisure purchase! Are you mad.

You will be getting up at 0430 every day and going to bed at midnight, every day, including xmas day, new year day, your wifes birthday, your birthday, everyone birthday. During lambing/calfing/both, you wont be going to bed at all. You will permanently stink of cow* **** no matter how many times you take a shower. You will go frigging insane trying to cut grass for hay, then it will rain, the hay becomes haylage, the bailer breaks, it rains more and it becomes silage. By winter you will discover its just poisonous **** that your animals are trying to eat. You will then go out begging for winter feed for the remaining survivors. In the summer, your combine will breakdown during the only two week weather window for harvest. Your prize tup will break into the ewes and present you with the prospect of lambing mid winter, Oh joy of joys. If you get this far, a local government laboratory will release some noxious substance that will wipe out any reaming stock that you have. Don't believe that you will get compensated either. There is no way a farm is a leisure purchase, your wife will desert you, your former friends will call you as a lazy land owner, and your children will turn to gun/knife crime. In short you will become a social outcast that no one wants to know or talk too, apart from other farmers.

With the amount of money required to buy and run a farm, I would advise going to a good FTO, do a full ATPL and go into aviation. Unless of course you have a hidden agenda, like building a housing estate in fives years time.

* add or substitute a farm beast of your choice

12th Jul 2008, 17:01

Is the new farm like this one WWW? ;)

http://www.playtimetoysandgames.co.uk/ekmps/shops/annstringer/images/db_wl401006_550x3751.jpg

David Horn

12th Jul 2008, 17:20

With the amount of money required to buy and run a farm, I would advise going to a good FTO, do a full ATPL and go into aviation. Unless of course you have a hidden agenda, like building a housing estate in fives years time.

Spinnaker - bravo! :D

nich-av

12th Jul 2008, 19:38

Funnily enough that's what I've done today - bought a farm!

No better time to purchase real estate in the UK and US.

But you have to admit, if you were that pessimistic about real estate you wouldn't have done that in the first place.

Alex, thanks for joining this thread with a fresh breeze of common sense.

Common sense is what we need today, common sense is what we will need tomorrow.
What will happen in the future is never sure. The best thing to do is to take the least risky options. That is valid in any situation.

Borrowing huge amounts and gambling your house for a piece of paper that may or may not get you a job on an airliner within a resonable timeframe is foolish.

Stopping, postponing, reconsidering whether or not you will start training is the other extreme.

Go somewhere in between and you should be safe.

spinnaker

12th Jul 2008, 22:31

;) ;) ;) ;) ;)

Adios

13th Jul 2008, 08:33

Spinnaker,

If your prediction of the farmer's daily schedule comes true, this thread will slow to a one page per month growth rate. Oh my, what will we do without the D&G. I guess we'll have to read the news for ourselves. ;)

You also wrote, "you will become a social outcast that no one wants to know or talk to..."

I'm not sure that will be anything new and different. :ooh:

heli_port

13th Jul 2008, 09:26

Key US mortgage lender collapses (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7503109.stm)

http://mysmiley.org/smiley-sign/links/670715001215941151.gif (http://mysmiley.org/)

(Above www after aquiring more farms)

:p

Lurking123

13th Jul 2008, 13:40

... and a little bit of the balance Alex W was talking about.

BBC NEWS | Northern Ireland | Plane maker invests £500m in NI (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/7504123.stm)

Before someone lambasts me for being a starry-eyed wanabee, I'm not. I'm pretty sure I know where a lot of 250hr CPL holders will not be sitting next year. All I'm saying is that endless links to snippets of economic information are becoming pointless.

spinnaker

13th Jul 2008, 16:28

Adios,

I think my prophecy has already come true, no posts from WWW since the 11th.:}

I have a farm myself. I went for the good life, not the leisure life. With my schedule, I find it helpful for someone to read the news for me. Since my last post, I've spent all of my time stalking two foxes, so far they have cost me £500 in destroyed hens and lost production. Need to add this to my list of pain that www is up against. Still, I wouldn't swap it back for an alarm clock and roster.:)

cavortingcheetah

13th Jul 2008, 16:47

:hmm:

It has been said in the City that if you buy a farm or small sporting estate and arrange your tax affairs correctly and quite legally then you will, at the least obtain the following benefits.

Large EEC subsidies for doing not much more than nothing.
Huge revenues if your land is sufficient in the right kind of acreage to support a pheasant shoot.
A reasonable and tranquil lifestyle.
An increasingly valuable asset as farming land can always be built upon.
CGT avoidance on any future resale.
No inheritance tax on the property when you die.

No working farmer one has ever met has greatly benefited from this arrangement.
Every non farming farmer one has ever met has increased his paper worth significantly by such means.

The proof of this lies in the amazing increase in price over the last four years in what estate agents are wont to call 'small sporting estates' and which most people would refer to as defunct farms.:suspect:

heli_port

13th Jul 2008, 21:04

Threat to aircraft orders as fuel prices soar (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/engineering/article4327146.ece)

More than $100 billion (£50.2 billion) of aircraft orders could be cancelled or postponed in the next couple of years as the high price of fuel drives airlines into bankruptcy or forces them to cut spending.
Analysts estimate that 20 to 30 per cent of the $530 billion order backlog held by Boeing and Airbus, the aircraft manufacturers, could be cancelled or delayed as the aviation industry heads towards a winter of turmoil. These cancellations would have a significant impact on aerospace suppliers such as Rolls-Royce, the engine maker.

Sharp rise in UK profit warnings (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7503966.stm)

There are fresh signs of a slowing UK economy with the number of companies warning their profits would be lower than expected at a seven-year high. There were 98 profit warnings from UK-listed companies in the three months to 30 June, according to Ernst & Young, the most in that period since 2001.

Adios

13th Jul 2008, 22:31

And the counter balance to that bit of news from heli-port:

Boeing is forecasting a $3.2 trillion market for new commercial airplanes over the next two decades, driven by an increasing demand for aeroplanes to replace older, less efficient aircraft.

ABTN â€“ The latest air travel & airline news (http://www.abtn.co.uk/High_price_of_oil_good_news_for_Boeing)

R T Jones

14th Jul 2008, 00:20

"Kellogs have announced they are going to create a new cereal, it’s called Credit Crunch"

Heard this on the radio this evening and made me chuckle.

heli_port

14th Jul 2008, 06:32

"Kellogs have announced they are going to create a new cereal, it’s called Credit Crunch"

mmm sounds good http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/tongue/tongue0022.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/freesmiley.php?smiley=tongue/tongue0022.gif)

A380 'to benefit from oil prices' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7504364.stm)

EADS, the company that owns Airbus, expects to benefit from the high price of oil.

We can wing it, says Boeing (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article4321538.ece)

FIZZ, multi-billion-dollar deals and earplugs are the standard fare for the Farnborough Air Show, the biennial aerospace jamboree that kicks off at the Hampshire airport tomorrow.

Bombardier to battle titans Boeing and Airbus with bigger jet (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/engineering/article4322495.ece)

Bombardier, which made its name in trains, business planes and small regional jets, is expected to say the C-Series will burn 20% less fuel than competing planes from Boeing and Airbus.

US Treasury ready to put billions into bailout of America’s mortgage system (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article4327506.ece)

The US Government took dramatic steps to prop up America’s financial system last night, announcing that it was prepared to pump billions of dollars into the country’s mortgage market in a desperate measure to prevent the economy going into a tailspin.

spinnaker

14th Jul 2008, 09:09

cavortingcheetah,

I don't think you'll find much in the way of getting grants and subsidies for doing nothing. Have a look through the various LMO's Its bloody hard work. It is a tranquil lifestyle for the gentleman farmer, ie someone who started out in life with pots of cash. For everyone else, its a good lifestyle but not necessarily tranquil or profitable.

True you can build on it IF you get planning permissions, however it is liable to CGT

Your last para is more about agents talking the job up. There is a lot of guys who bought these defunct farms and now regret it.

MIKECR

14th Jul 2008, 13:46

Some positive news

FARNBOROUGH 2008: UAE's FlyDubai orders 54 Boeing 737-800s (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/07/14/225333/farnborough-2008-uaes-flydubai-orders-54-boeing-737-800s.html)

cirruscrystal

14th Jul 2008, 16:29

Yes - thats a legacy order though i think!

MIKECR

14th Jul 2008, 18:01

Its a low cost UAE government funded start up airline.

nich-av

14th Jul 2008, 23:39

Deliveries will start in May 2009.

54 aircraft for a new airline = at least 540 new pilot jobs.

Honestly, I had expected twice as many.

The order for Etihad is huge but could have been alot more. Too many are options.

Very disappointing show until now.

On another note, let's get back to oil:
1. On one hand the US government is doing everything to make oil prices (read correctly!) increase. (Pressure on Iran, never ending war in Iraq, credit crunch caused by Fed, ever-diving dollar, etc...)

2. On the other hand, they are doing everything to promote oil drilling off the coast while they know very well that they are responsible for causing the oil prices to increase and that additional volume is not going to do any good.

Someone may be preparing his own retirement present...

peterinmadrid

15th Jul 2008, 02:45

"The financial state of the world is just about the worst I've ever known it," Branson told The Times newspaper in an interview. "It's getting perilously close to being worse than the 1990s.
"You have the perfect storm -- you've not only got the banking crisis and the housing crisis, you've got the soaring fuel prices as well. One of the big American carriers will almost definitely go."

Sounds just like WWW.

Lurking123

15th Jul 2008, 06:19

What, Branson has bought a farm? I'm confused.:bored:

heli_port

15th Jul 2008, 06:52

Heli_ports RSS feed:

Families suffer as price of groceries soars (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article4333404.ece)

Spiralling food prices have pushed the cost of a family's weekly shop up by nearly £1,100 a year, new figures reveal.

Estate agents have lowest sales in 30 years (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/money/property_and_mortgages/article4333754.ece)

Home sales fell to their lowest level in 30 years last month as the seizure in the mortgage market continued to drag house prices down.

Sales remain flat on High Street (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7505865.stm)

The small sales growth seen in the UK High Street in May was just a start-of- summer blip, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC). The BRC said retailers failed to hold on to the sales lift in June as tighter household budgets and fluctuating weather kept shoppers away from stores

Boeing receives Gulf state orders (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7505790.stm)

Boeing has received a raft of orders from Gulf states eager to capitalise on money received from soaring oil prices. United Arab Emirates carrier Etihad Airways is to buy 35 mid-sized Boeing Dreamliner jets and 10 mid-sized Boeing 777s in a deal worth $9bn (£4.5bn).

http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/animals/animal0028.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/freesmiley.php?smiley=animals/animal0028.gif)

wilky

15th Jul 2008, 22:35

more gloom

BA: fewer flights, higher fares - MSN News UK - news & weather (http://news.uk.msn.com/Article.aspx?cp-documentid=8899013)

heli_port

16th Jul 2008, 06:31

A few stories to note on this cold Wednesday morning:

Ghost flights' and fake passengers for crisis airlines (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/travel/news/article4340518.ece)

Britain’s third-largest airline, bmi, will fly near-empty aircraft while Flybe has advertised for actors to take its seats

Spiralling fuel costs force British Airways to raise fares (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article4340346.ece)

The chief executive of British Airways said yesterday that fares were likely to increase by at least 4 per cent because the airline would have to spend an extra £1 billion on fuel this year.

BA warns the oil price will wipe out profits (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article4337807.ece)

Martin Broughton, the chairman of British Airways, admitted today that profits are likely to be wiped out this year as soaring fuel costs and the economic downturn pile the pressure on the UK's flagship airline.

'Rent now buy later' housing plan (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7508350.stm)

A "rent first, buy later" scheme is heading a series of measures which the government hopes will breathe new life into the housing market.

http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/cool/cool0043.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net/freesmiley.php?smiley=cool/cool0043.gif)

potkettleblack

16th Jul 2008, 08:23

Ryanair slashes winter flights from Dublin - Times Online (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/ireland/article4339331.ece)

thirtysomething

16th Jul 2008, 10:48

Ha Ha. Love the Airport Authorities response to Mick throwing the rattler out of the pram.

"
Dublin Airport Authority hit back in uncharacteristic fashion, claiming O'Leary's cutbacks were more to do with Ryanair’s own internal business than with airport costs. It confirmed that Ryanair had recently asked for support for some of its winter services “on a seemingly exclusive and non-commercial basis”.
“The DAA finds it ironic that Ryanair, the so-called champion of competition, complains publicly when its request for anti-competitive support mechanisms are justly declined,” the authority said.
It insisted its maximum airport charge is among the lowest of all big European airports and, as Europe’s eighth busiest international airport, was “not comparable to the remote former airfields to which Ryanair largely flies”.
“The combination of a sharp economic slowdown in many of its key markets, its own failure to provide hedge against historically high oil prices and its heavily loss-making investment in Aer Lingus are the key factors driving this decision to consolidate seasonal schedules and not airport charges, which are paid fully by the airline’s passengers.”

"

Re-Heat

17th Jul 2008, 08:39

FT.com:

Spanair, Spain’s second largest airline, is to cut about a quarter of its workforce and its fleet in an attempt to combat high fuel prices, fierce competition and a sharp downturn in its domestic market.

The loss-making carrier, which is owned by the Scandinavian group SAS, said on Wednesday it would shed 900 staff jobs as part of a “viability plan”. The announcement comes a month after SAS abandoned a year-long search for a buyer for its Spanish subsidiary, which last year incurred an operating loss, before one-off items, of about €30m.

Grass strip basher

17th Jul 2008, 09:10

RYANAIR UNVEILS 14% CAPACITY REDUCTIONS AT

LONDON STANSTED THIS WINTER ('08/'09)

Ryanair, London Stansted Airport's largest airline today (Thursday 17th July,
2008) announced substantial capacity cutbacks at Stansted for its Winter
Schedule ('08/09). Ryanair, which last Winter had 36 aircraft based at Stansted,
will this Winter reduce that number to 28 aircraft (a 25% reduction), and an
approximate 14% reduction in the number of weekly flights from over 1,850 per
week last year to just under 1,600 this year. Ryanair estimates that its traffic
at London Stansted will decline this Winter by some 900,000 passengers compared
to last Winter's schedule.

Ryanair's decision to cut back capacity at Stansted is for the following
reasons:

* London Stansted is the most expensive of Ryanair's 28 bases.
* The BAAAirport monopoly has again increased airport charges by 15% this year,
on top of a 100% increase last year.
* The total failure of the inadequate CAA regulatory regime to control these
unjustified cost increases or to persuade BAA Stansted to meet the needs of its
low fare airline users.
* The fact that oil prices have risen to $140 a barrel.

Ryanair confirmed that it will lose less money this Winter by sitting these 8
aircraft on the ground, rather than flying them at an expensive airport like BAA
Stansted, during the Winter when fares are extremely low, but oil prices remain
stubbornly high. Ryanair confirmed that it had written to BAA Stansted in recent
weeks offering to operate these aircraft/flights this Winter in return for a
substantial discount on airport charges applicable to these flights for the
Winter season only. Like most monopolies, the BAA dismissed Ryanair's reasonable
requests out of hand. The BAA would rather impose high airport charges and have
fewer passengers, rather than working with airline customers to lower costs and
keep people flying during a Winter of crisis in the airline industry.

Announcing these cutbacks in London this morning, Ryanair's CEO, Michael O'Leary
said:

"These Winter Schedule cutbacks, which are significantly greater than those of
last Winter, show just how damaging the BAA Airport monopoly has become to
consumers and the best interests of London and UK tourism and the economy
generally. Like most monopolies, the BAA continues to increase costs at three
times the rate of inflation, while delivering miserable service and inadequate
facilities. Passengers continue to suffer long queues at security and passport
control and frequent baggage belt failures at Stansted because the BAA refuses
to staff or operate these facilities adequately.

"These cutbacks reaffirm the abject failure of Harry Bush and his inadequate
regulatory team in the CAA who have repeatedly failed to restrain the BAA's high
charges, price increases or to encourage them to meet the reasonable
requirements of Stansted users by developing the efficient facilities we need
and are willing to pay for.

"When a regulated monopoly makes it more profitable for airlines to sit aircraft
on the ground rather than fly them through the winter, then obviously the CAA's
laughable regulatory regime has failed. The BAA Stansted's rejection of Ryanair
discount plan for this Winter proves yet again why the BAA monopoly should be
broken up and replaced with three competing London airports whose primary focus
will be on stimulating traffic and developing low cost efficient facilities,
which their customer airlines want and are willing to pay for.

"We hope that the Competition Commission report will in due course support
Ryanair's call for the break up of the high cost BAA monopoly, and replace the
inadequate and failed CAA regulatory regime with competing airports and better
still competing terminals at the main London airports. Monopoly airports and
the CAA's regulatory regime have delivered high prices and awful facilities. It
is time we allowed competition to deliver where monopolies have failed".

An example of these cutbacks is set out below:

LONDON STANSTED WINTER '08/'09 CUTBACKS

Winter '07/'08 Winter '08/'09
Base Aircraft 36 28 (-22%)
Weekly Flights 1,860 1,590 (-14%)
Samples: Dublin 58 50 (-14%)
Glasgow 29 20 (-31%)
Rome CIA 35 28 (-20%)

In addition Ryanair is also announcing 6 new routes this Winter from Stansted to
Winter sun destinations including: Fuerteventura (Canaries), Ibiza, Tenerife,
Malaga, as well as Katowice (Poland) and Basel in Switzerland. These new routes
are included in the above schedule, as part of the overall capacity reduction.

Destination Weekly Frequency Start Date
Malaga 3 28th Oct'08
Fuerteventura 3 28th Oct'08
Tenerife South 3 28th Oct'08
Ibiza 3 28th Oct'08
Katowice 7 27th Oct'08
Basel 3 21st Dec'08

Ends. Thursday, 17th July 2008

For further information

please contact: Stephen McNamara Pauline McAlester

Ryanair Ltd Murray Consultants

Tel: +353-1-8121212 Tel. +353-1-4980300

This information is provided by RNS

The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

john.o.pilot

18th Jul 2008, 13:31

anyone knows what would be the landing fee for Boeing 737 at Satansted? :cool:

potkettleblack

18th Jul 2008, 17:27

I just love all of MOL's posturing. He is bleating on about high costs forced upon him etc etc. Perhaps the underlying reason is that people have cottoned onto the fact that he isn't that cheap afterall when you add in all the extras and it isn't exactly one of lifes most pleasant experiences travelling on his flights.

Its been a vicious circle for him. In the early days he was able to extract some amazingly cheap deals from airports which in essence inflated his profits compared to the existing carriers. Now those very airports that he said publicly that he ripped off have grown from strength to strength on the basis of the pax that MOL brought them and they are now at the point of being able to give MOL two fingers back. Brilliant.

Ylva

21st Jul 2008, 15:33

very very sad news just read this:( High-speed trains seize short-haul market as fuel cost cripples the airlines - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article4296525.ece)

john.o.pilot

22nd Jul 2008, 11:22

"The soaring oil price will drive "weaker" rivals out of business, easyJet claimed this morning, despite seeing its own losses treble over the last six months.
With oil hitting a new record of $122 a barrel yesterday, and Goldman Sachs forecasting it could hit $200 a barrel this year, easyJet predicted carnage in the airline industry.
"If the oil price stays high we will see a number of weaker airlines disappear over the next 12 to 24 months," chief executive Andrew Harrison predicted."

Any guesses which airlines will disappear then?

Re-Heat

22nd Jul 2008, 11:29

The start of aircraft order deferrals?

http://www.pprune.org/forums/rumours-news/336141-ek-stopping-hiring.html#post4281389

ref the high-speed trains - solves many of the runway capacity issues, emits far fewer greenhouse gases, and faster these days to many city centres. Inevitable.

A and C

24th Jul 2008, 16:18

$120 a barrel and falling with some forcasting that it will be at $ 90 by 2009.

It looks like it was all speculation and media hype but no doubt WWW can put a gloomy slant on this.

john.o.pilot

24th Jul 2008, 19:56

great news, so there is no recession at all, airline tickets have never been cheaper, aircrafts engines are emission free, airlines are enlarging their fleets as we speak, taxes are going down, BAA is reducing airport fees and everything is perfect.

Its never been a better time to become airline pilot. :\

All these airline CEOs and finance specialists prediciting gloom are bloody useless and should be completely ignored.

:eek:

expedite08

25th Jul 2008, 15:56

I said this would happen!! At the moment all is in our favour ( well me personally!! ) At this rate ill have a realistic chance at buying house in the next 12 months or so and I might get a flying job in the oil crash!!!

cirruscrystal

25th Jul 2008, 20:39

The thread seems to be spluttering now, is it finally time for it to slide into page 2?

I have enjoyed reading all the comments and analysis and appreciate peoples different points of view on everything - keep it alive with something sensible, WWW news from the Rivercottage???

spinnaker

26th Jul 2008, 09:03

Much is being made on the oil price falling from its recent highs, but its only at a 7 week low. Compared to last years price, its still horribly high. The UK economy grew at 0.2% last quarter and brings us perilously close to recession by the year end.

The main reason for spiralling oil prices is speculation by fund managers, now that demand has started to show some signs of easing, its not so attractive, the fund managers have to start looking elsewhere, or accept a reduced return. I do wonder if one or two of them got there fingers burnt.

Halifax cutting interest rates is not much comfort as inflation has now started to take off and unemployment is on the up. I doubt that it will attract new borrowers when the price of electricity, gas, food and transport are escalating, at the same time more and more people are worried about job security.

Industry is already in recession the rest will surely follow by the year end.:sad:

volunteerpilot

26th Jul 2008, 09:36

Fuel poverty

The government estimates that 2.5 million households are in fuel poverty - defined as when more than 10% of household income is spent on fuel bills - but watchdog Energywatch says the figure is more than four million.
A 40% rise in average fuel bills would be far higher than expected and would put more pressure on homeowners already struggling with higher food and fuel costs.
However, some analysts believe the increases will be closer to 25%.
It is thought that any price announcements are most likely to come in August, when energy bills are not at the forefront of people's minds. But there is a great reluctance in the industry to be the first to reveal a big rise, so the rises may be unveiled in stages.

Marvelous :ok:

spinnaker

27th Jul 2008, 08:09

BBC NEWS | World | Americas | Cuban leader warns of austerity (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7527362.stm)

Castro has the balls to tell his people the truth.:eek:

Wee Weasley Welshman

27th Jul 2008, 08:35

BA to clip wings of short-haul fleet

Gatwick to bear the brunt of cutbacks with fuel costs grounding 20% of short-haul flights as airline follows budget rivals' streamlining

BA to clip wings of short-haul fleet - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article4407165.ece)

In terms of pilots employed in the UK the Big Three are BA, easyJet and Ryanair. Every single one of them has warned that the outlook is bleak. Each have announced capacity cuts. Each is reducing fleet size in the UK. Each has seen its shareprice cut by more than half.

This is as I expected and wrote about last year. Come the Winter you WILL see UK airlines go out of business. Do not use last year, or even this year as a guide to next years pilot wannabe recruitment market. You won't believe how quickly and how badly it can deteriorate and you have to keep those ratings valid and your flying skills current and your debts repaid.

Do not overcommit yourselves.

WWW

JB007

27th Jul 2008, 09:03

And what is less reported is the constant, ever changing capacity reductions in the charter market...

volunteerpilot

27th Jul 2008, 11:46

seems that american colleagues will be joining us in the job hunt and ryanair was already meeting some of them

http://www.pprune.org/forums/terms-endearment/336640-ryanair-pilot-recruitment-coming-talk-united-airlines-pilots.html

nich-av

27th Jul 2008, 12:41

And what is less reported is the constant, ever changing capacity reductions in the charter market...

Sorry to say so but that is not applicable to mainland Europe and the U.S.

The charter market is doing exceptionally well, even here in the U.S.
Most pilots who are furloughed by the majors are jumping onto charter airlines. It might be just a temporary summer thing but until now, the charter market has seen no capacity reduction at all.

The TUI group is still adding aircraft and hiring pilots (except for Thomsonfly).

Now, I know that the UK charter market is doing pretty bad, but what applies to the UK does not necessarily apply to the whole world. The very strong presence of LCC's in the UK has alot do with that.

potkettleblack

28th Jul 2008, 10:13

And with the way the US dollar is at the moment MOL will be using that to screw the guys and gals heading east big time. Will be a further erosion across the industry and provide our CEO's with more ammunition to fire at our unions at the next pay rounds.

getoffmycloud

28th Jul 2008, 14:08

Ryanair stock price down nearly 20% on a MASSIVE profit warning today.... you optimists who think their fleet expansion plans will continue unhindered are smoking the good stuff....

UPDATE 3-Ryanair fare cuts may mean first loss since 1989 | Reuters (http://uk.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUKL852549520080728)

Even MOL is starting to look out of his depth in this downturn... :uhoh: :mad:... pointing to a big expected fall in passenger yields both over the winter and interestingly this summer... another (significant) crack forms in the outlook.

Grass strip basher

29th Jul 2008, 12:35

Can't imagine this will be good news for wanabee jobs... merger typically = job losses or at best a recruitment freeze

The news flow has taken a dramatic turn for the worst in regard to the wanabee job market over the past week if you ask me...

British Airways and Iberia confirm merger talks - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article4422487.ece)

Re-Heat

29th Jul 2008, 13:04

I reckon BA / Iberia will only be bad news for the duplicate finance / back office / management functions as the operations have such little overlap.

Grass strip basher

29th Jul 2008, 15:13

It will be the first major airline merger in history that does not impact on pilot recruitment at the airlines involved if that is the case. Especially as this is arguably a defensive merger as we move into a downturn

nich-av

29th Jul 2008, 17:58

It will be the first major airline merger in history that does not impact on pilot recruitment at the airlines involved if that is the case.

If your history revolves around the past few months, you'd be correct.

The SN/VEX merger that took place last year, the Sabena/Swissair merger, the JAL/JAS merger are but a few examples of mergers that saw no effect on pilot recruitment. When LH acquired LX, a more extreme case, we actually saw an increase in pilot jobs.

The BA/IB merger has been a rumour for a couple of years already and I doubt that BA is in a financial position to make this happen. It's all about the lucrative markets of South America and to a minor extent, Africa.

volunteerpilot

2nd Aug 2008, 09:19

BA profits 20% down, I wonder what its gonno be in 6 months?

hollingworthp

2nd Aug 2008, 09:30

I think BA profits are down 88%

BBC NEWS | Business | Soaring fuel bill hits BA profits (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7536570.stm)

lc_aerobatics

4th Aug 2008, 10:59

Final call for more than 50 airlines (http://www.independent-bangladesh.com/200808038462/business/final-call-for-more-than-50-airlines.html)

Does anyone know where can I find this list ?
Cheers
LC

JohnRayner

4th Aug 2008, 17:06

Deary Me....

BBC NEWS | Business | Warning as HSBC profits fall 28% (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7540404.stm)

You could argue that the difference between $14 billion and $10 billion is a bit abstract, but 30% knocked off a worldwide major banking organization...

:}:}

Lurking123

4th Aug 2008, 18:58

It hasn't actually been knocked-off the organisation; they still made a profit, albeit 30% less than before.

JohnRayner

4th Aug 2008, 19:13

That wasn't brilliantly written, was it? :hmm:

Still 28% off profits is quite a steep drop

:uhoh:

Wee Weasley Welshman

4th Aug 2008, 19:39

This is the worst airline crisis since 1991. That is all you really need to know. Plan accordingly.

WWW

ps <whisper> Don't do the ATPL exams or the IRT.

JohnRayner

4th Aug 2008, 19:51

ps <whisper> Don't do the ATPL exams or the IRT.

That's becoming increasingly apparent! I can only hope any improvement comes in time for me to moot a career change before age gets the better of me...

JB007

5th Aug 2008, 02:35

I would agree with WWW, now approaching the back-end of 2008, I would be tempted to put off any financial commitment towards training until next year...this winter is going to be interesting to watch...

But to quote Mt Stephen Green, HSBC Chairman:
Ultimately the real economy will recover from the crisis, although it may get worse before it gets better

Right, early morning Benidorm for me!http://www.clicksmilies.com/s1106/ernaehrung/food-smiley-012.gif

Grass strip basher

5th Aug 2008, 12:36

Oil price coming off but still biting.... horrible numbers from Air France-KLM and Iberia... Iberia and Air France-KLM profits hit by soaring oil price - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article4462445.ece)

Wee Weasley Welshman

5th Aug 2008, 14:16

The oil price is the smoke and mirrors show that distracts investors from the real problem - the recession and the collapse in bookings stemming from that.

A couple of tenners or a couple of hundred quid fuel surcharge are peanuts in the overall travel/leisure spend. Its the fact that the recession and house price crash will result in people not going on trips AT ALL at ANY PRICE that is the intractable issue the airlines don't really like to talk about.

Oil could go right back to £10 but the resulting £15 quid off a low cost flight to Spain or £200 of fuel surcharge being removed from a long haul flight ain't going to entice someone to travel whose overtime has been cancelled, job is under threat, house is in negative equity or company has gone bust. And there will be millions of those.

The biggest credit bubble the world has ever seen by several factors is contracting. It has gone about one third of the way.

If that.

WWW

madgewick

5th Aug 2008, 20:38

Well thats it then! I give up!! Gonna take up smoking and heavy drinking. Also I feel a little sciatica coming on so im off down to the DSS.:ok:
By the way, has anyone seen Thomas Harrison? he'd know what to do.

student88

5th Aug 2008, 20:56

I'd love to know if the state of the economy has effected places like Oxford Aviation Academy and Cabair's intake. A friend of mine has pulled his place at OAA for September. A good idea IMO.

S88:ok:

JohnRayner

5th Aug 2008, 21:32

Hear Hear!

We need the sage and balanced viewpoint of this, proon's most valued commentator, to guide us through these times of woe...

:}:}:}

MIKECR

5th Aug 2008, 21:51

Oil really is taking a dunt now...closed trading at $118 dollars per barrel today.

cirruscrystal

20th Aug 2008, 15:06

Intersting article confirming what we knew of the now present surplus from another Ppruner.

Pilot shortage moves to pilot surplus (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/08/18/314849/pilot-shortage-moves-to-pilot-surplus.html)

350Z

20th Aug 2008, 15:17

Certainly is a worrying time, things do not look good and to make matters worse my dad has just been made redundant after ten years service...no prizes for guessing which industry, although it will probably take two guesses! ;)

cumulus

20th Aug 2008, 18:16

I apologise if this has already been said, but unless you are going the integrated route, training is not all or nothing. You could do the PPL and start hour building, do your three hundred mile cross country and even your multi rating while waiting for the economy to bottom out. The clock only starts ticking once you've passed the last of the ATPL writtens.

eikido

26th Aug 2008, 11:16

Mr WWW.
When do you think (guess) the upturn will start?
Trying to plan future school start:)

Regards
Eikido

JB007

26th Aug 2008, 11:31

eikido

2011/12, but will be dependant on what the winter months will hold for a few airlines.

heli_port

26th Aug 2008, 15:53

haven't posted in a while because i finally started at oxford and let me say it's the best thing i've ever done (i hope i'll be saying that when i graduate http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/confused/confused0024.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net))

UK mortgage lending 'levels off' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7581756.stm)

cheer up it's not all bad http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/love/love0028.gif (http://www.mysmiley.net)

Adios

26th Aug 2008, 21:56

Heli-port,

I hope you're not saying that you love ground school. That would be sick! :eek:

A and C

26th Aug 2008, 22:02

61 pages and WWW is still banging out the doom and gloom.............. High time this thread was put to bed along with WWW's predictions on oil at $200 a barrel by Christmas.

As yet I have not seen the end of the world as we know it, Negative equity is just a state of mind unless you intend to sell right now, the economic slowdown is happening but it is mostly due to panic and the real danger is to the low service (sorry low cost) sector that is going to loose the three or four week end trips that people do each year, not the charter operators who service the "main" family holiday market. the truth is that most of the chavs would sell granny before giving up the families two weeks in the sun!

boogie-nicey

27th Aug 2008, 09:10

"Put to bed" I think that's for the sake of those of you who are still fearful that WWW and his clan might just say something that you don't wish to hear. It's important to take it on the chin and actually ponder over the facts and indeed an informed opinion or two such as our dear moderator's :p

Sure the prediction of oil of $200 a barrel isn't an exacting target even speculators can't be that accurate, it's all a best guess theory game if you see what I mean. Nevertheless closer inspection of the oil price will show it's willingness to leap upwards faster than it recedes back into the shadows just above the $100 mark. It is still armed for an explosion especially as the Iran issue is far from resolved and with an election coming about in just a few months over in the US they may well kick off the party earlier rather than later. It will send oil up like a space shuttle lauch and fuel inflation to dizzy heights. Aviation is like a kid with all manner of allergies and always in the process of suffering from something or another and any economic variable that begins heading south has an effect. Unlike other industries that can manoeuvre into other revenue streams aviation can't it simply flies people and cargo and there's not much else it can do. It cannot shift premises like high street stores or merge cinemas, restaurants, bars, bowling allies into a single complex or concentrate on non-food items to boost fortunes. Thus it's quite a slow moving target that is all too easily engulfed in any economic storm.

The issue of putting it to bed is one that I can symphathise with but we need to keep it open whilst the global economic events unfold by the day, week and month so that wannabes and even experienced drivers know the score out there in the wilderness. However it's not your role to convert WWW you need to accept that he has his standpoint and views and that will actually help to define/justify yours relative to his. It's just a simple discussion we are having here peeps so please don't get upset it's for the benefit and knowledge of all. Just be cool. :p

Come on boogie down :p

ChrisLKKB

27th Aug 2008, 10:10

b-n's summed it up nicely imo. Don't shoot the messenger because he's the bearer of bad tidings, take on board the words of experience and plan accordingly. I've done all this crap once before and in the future I am planning on doing it all again :ugh:, don't ask me why I, I wont tell you. What I will tell you is that i've seen this all before as i'm sure www has and his advice backs up what I am hearing from a few of friends of mine who are flight crew. At least one large UK airline (I wont say which in case it contrvines PPRUNE t's & c's) is offering either early retirement/voluntary redundancy (I don't recall which) as well as unpaid leave, i'm sure if you ask around though you'll find out easily enough.

One glimmer of good news is that Ryan Air has aircraft still to be delivered from the factory and will still be growing but not at the rate it was originally intending or at a slower rate (source BBC radio). The bad news there is I heard that Ryan Air are looking to other airlines (AA?) who are laying off to fill their vacancies (source PPRUNE, probably Rumours and News).

My advice would be to heed WW's advice and hold fire on the exams, i've seen lots of students finish with a frozen ATPL during a down turn and have no where to go, i've lost touch with most over the years but afaik some did get jobs after several years (during the last up turn) but others are still trying or have given up. Maximise your chances by trying to finish up when the next up turn is upon us (dragging out your training if necessary).

It doesn't help anyone to accuse those who tell it like it is of being doom and gloom mongers just because you don't like what you are hearing. The advice may not be entirely altruistic in that they may be seeking employment themselves (I don't know) and they don't need loads more wet behind the ears wannabees flooding the market but the advice is genuine and realistic.

getoffmycloud

28th Aug 2008, 21:12

Zoom gone bust today... another one bites the dust.

Easy, Ryanair and BA recruitment freezes.... Flybe will not be far behind. All those who have been slagging off WWW how do you like you humble pie served??

And it is only going to get worse over the next 6 months... Over half of OAT's cadets have gone to either BA or Ryanair for last 3 years... with those doors now shut good luck on those integrated courses! :{:ugh::mad::uhoh::eek::bored:

nich-av

29th Aug 2008, 03:23

All those who have been slagging off WWW how do you like you humble pie served??

Oh yeah you mean the guy that predicted the worst recession in history, even surpassing the 1929-1931's? The one guy that failed to see the difference between the speculated upcoming recession and the real problem, the energy crisis.
I got news for him:

The government estimated on Thursday that U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, well above an initial estimate of 1.9 percent rate and above economists' expectations of a 2.7 percent rate.

The number squashed any speculation that the economy was mired in recession, or negative growth.

TREASURIES-Bonds fall on upwardly revised Q2 U.S. growth | Markets | Bonds News | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2833805220080828)

The energy crisis is slowly coming to an end as investors regain common sense and reinvest in traditional markets. Oil prices have no more reason to rise at this point, and I hope that the valutation of oil will decrease to 90$/barrel by year-end.

I still stand by my previous comment that United will go down before the oil markets recover and that the huge pilot shortage we are facing around 2010 will hit many regional and bizjet operators to a point where some will have to ground aircraft.

The wide and wild speculation that is coming to its end was but an instant of relief...

Wee Weasley Welshman

29th Aug 2008, 07:08

As I have said several times before - Oil prices are the sideshow, the real issue is the recession. And don't try to pin a prediction of $200 oil on me as I never said that nor suggested it.

I don't need to put the bear case any more. When I started doing so in the summer of last year hardly anyone thought a house price crash was going to happen and that a recession was a laughable likelihood. Now that both these events have come to pass and the mass media have caught on to the fact the bear facts are printed every day for all to see.

My predicition of airlines going bust is coming true (Zoom yesterday) and there will be plenty more.

Make your training choices as you see fit. You wanna keep renewing your licences, exams and ratings year after year then thanks, my ex-colleagues still in the flying training business will be very grateful.

WWW

ps A&C - was it you who said I'd be desperately trying to get back on the housing ladder having Sold To Rent in 2007? Looks more like a firemans pole to me... :E

Brainstorm

29th Aug 2008, 07:35

I guess I just find it kind of funny that the UK is in such a sorry state after a long economic boom. We are currently going into a recession with sky high taxes, no money in the bank and up to our ears in debt.

It is bit like a farmer deciding to milk his cow twice as much and also to stop feeding it. When it drops down dead (to his surprise) he borrows the neighbor's cow and does it all over again.

What other airlines are in trouble out there? Any ideas??

JohnRayner

29th Aug 2008, 08:20

The economic rollercoster has just come to the top of it's biggest upswing to date, it's pausing there for a brief moment.... Who knows how fast and low it will go?

:ooh:

Brainstorm

29th Aug 2008, 08:38

..or it is a bit like trading airspeed for altitude to achieve a better climb rate. Everyone on board gets excited by the new and improved climb rate, but nobody sees that the speed is bleeding off. As we approach the stall we are forced to pitch down again. As we plummet towards earth we look at each other wondering what went wrong. Surely, nobody could have predicted this one?!?

ChrisLKKB

29th Aug 2008, 09:24

Surely, nobody could have predicted this one?!?

Everyone who didn't have their heads stuck in the sand predicted this one, this current cycle of growth was like a house of cards, it did well to last as long as it did imo.

I've no doubt the government knew well in advance it was going to happen, I'm sure it was a factor in Blair handing over the reigns when he did. Governments don't talk about recessions though if they can avoid it, maybe through denial but more likely because they can talk the country into recession by scaremongering.

Air travel is one thing that is going to be hit hard by a recession particularly with high oil prices. With less money around and often non existent pay rises, luxuries like holidays abroad and air travel in general are going to take a hit. This time round though (according to R2),with people now viewing holidays not as a luxury but as a necessity, this suggests to me that the airlines are going to suffer a slow protracted down turn so the signs may not be immediately obvious.

As with everything though, these things are cyclical, I realise that we are living in the era of I want it now, I will have it now but on mass it's the people who are patient and bide their time and time qualifying to coincide with the start of the next up turn who will be best off. Know one is saying it's all over and recruiting is going to dry up all together but wouldn't you be rather competeing in a market where there are a few hundred jobs rather than a few dozen?

conerted_lurker

29th Aug 2008, 09:25

From the Telegraph:

Rising fuel costs send Aer Lingus plummeting

Irish carrier Aer Lingus has flagged "fundamental changes" to its cost base after plunging into the red in a move that analysts say paves the way for a radical staffing overhaul.

The airline, formerly majority owned by the Irish government, revealed yesterday that soaring fuel costs were behind a €20.2m (£16.3m) first-half loss and warned that the deficit could worsen next year.

Rising fuel costs send Aer Lingus plummeting - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/08/29/cnlingus129.xml)

Also

Concerns for Spanish banks after downgrade on mortgage securities

Fitch Ratings has downgraded six sets of Spanish mortgage securities issued by Banco Santander, heightening concerns that the damage from Spain's property crash is spreading to the country's strongest lenders.

The loans were "sliced and diced" and packaged in an identical way to sub-prime mortgage bonds in the US, belying claims by the Spanish government that the country had avoided the sort of lending practices seen in Anglo-Saxon economies.

The cluster of residential property securities, worth €4.06bn (£3.27bn), were all based on mortgages that exceeded 80pc of the house value, and many were 95pc or even 100pc. They were all issued in 2007 at the height of the property boom. Fitch downgraded the lower tier A, BBB, and BB tranches of the securities.

Concerns for Spanish banks after downgrade on mortgage securities - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/08/29/cnspain129.xml)

The Irish and the Spanish are both seeing house price crashes a little deeper and a little ahead of the UK one. Their airlines are in trouble. It is getting worse there and worse in the UK. The scandanvians are in trouble (SAS is bleeding money profusely) the Italians are just about to bankrupt Alitalia, the German economy is shrinking, Estonian and Latvian fiscal system is about to implode and Holland and Denmark are in recession with house price crashes.

Do we really think that no UK airline will go under this winter? When that happens we Wannabes are going to be at the back of a long queue I reckon.

Whilst The Sun has...

House price fall fastest for 18yrs | The Sun |News|Sun Money (http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/money/article1620737.ece)

HOUSE prices are falling at the fastest rate for 18 years, it was revealed yesterday.

They tumbled another 1.9 per cent this month.

And that took the annual rate of decline to 10.5 per cent — not seen since the 1990 property crash.

Over at the Guardian they have...

House price plunge fuels recession fear | Business | The Guardian (http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008/aug/29/houseprices.property)

House price plunge fuels recession fear

Warning that two million may be out of work by Christmas

Fears of recession this winter intensified yesterday after the CBI reported the weakest high street activity in 25 years, the Nationwide building society said house prices were falling at £150 a day and a Bank of England policymaker warned of two million unemployed by Christmas.

When the Sun and the Guardian are both telling you its a crash and a recession then I think its pretty much happened. As WWW has pointed out - you need to learn about the last time this happened in 1991 if you want to understand the present. Those that refuse to learn from history are doomed to repeat its mistakes and all that jazz.

Lets start a book on which UK airline will cease trading first..

Converted.