Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us.... [Archive] - Page 2

A and C

11th Apr 2008, 12:49

I guess that for WWW the glass is alway half empty. From what I remember the people who had the most problems getting a job back in the 1990's had that sort of attitude, the problem is that it comes across at interview and puts you to the bottom of list when it comes to job offers.

I have no doubt that things are going to get tough in the aviation business and you have to ask the question who would you want to work for you, the guy who sees the glass as half empty or the guy who sees it as half full?

As for the EZY A321 issue could this not have more to do with the fact that the ex-GB aircraft have the V2500 engine and not the CFM56? This is not an issue when flying the aircraft but in maintenance terms it requires a lot more trainning and logistic support to maintain two engine types. I would think that this is the reason for EZY shedding these aircraft rather that the economic situation.

Wee Weasley Welshman

11th Apr 2008, 12:54

No. The A321's were planned to be operated by EZY. The plan has changed in the last week. Belts are being tightened. Stop trying to spin it any other way - I work for the company and I know a bit more about it than you. The CEO has stated that there will be blood on the carpet and that other airlines will be going bust soon.

I cannot spell it out more clearly than that.

I don't have a half glass empty attitude, I'm not miserable and I don't think the world will end. We are going to have a 1990's recession. It probably won't hurt me much and as I've sold to rent my house at the top of the market the HPC will bring me huge gain. I'm prepared for the coming storm.

Are you?

WW

Re-Heat

11th Apr 2008, 13:07

It probably won't hurt me much and as I've sold to rent my house at the top of the market the HPC will bring me huge gain.
Ballsy move - good call

99jolegg

11th Apr 2008, 13:47

There was me thinking analogies were to be used to emphasise a point from a different, but applicable perspective. Clearly not the case here :rolleyes:

Kerosine

11th Apr 2008, 14:19

This is a becoming brawn vs brains thread. WWW is putting forward a very logical evidence based argument that draws on past economic climates and current trends. Unfortunately WWW, you are fighting the masses that are reluctant to admit that things aren't rosy, and that maybe the facts do point to a recession. Some seem so busy arguing the colour of the water, they can't see that huge wave heading right this way. Arguing over the sale fo a few aircraft is completely irrelevant, we're talking about the rise and fall of the global economy!

WWW isn't saying we should all find a strong rope, he's pointing out prefectly valid observations. He is also not sensationalising or fabricating the basis for his argument, unlike some with the "think positive" idealism based on nothing more than an instinct to avoid blackening their view of the world.

That being said, where would PPRuNe be if everyone agreed :ugh:

Wee Weasley Welshman

11th Apr 2008, 14:42

Thank you Kerosine.

This is ominous for airlines who derive significant revenue from First and Business customers:

http://news.hereisthecity.com/news/business_news/7766.cntns

More Jobs Go As Firms Tighten Their Belts

The next few weeks don't look like being a great time to be working in the finnacial markets. With the likes of Merrill Lynch and UBS Investment Bank said to be on the verge of laying off thousands more, Royal Bank of Scotland / ABN AMRO have started to wield the axe (some 200 already said to have gone in London this week, with Reuters reporting that 40 ABN roles are likely to be cut in the Nordic region soon) and staff at Bear Stearns should start to learn of their fate next week, with some being laid off as early as Friday.

Bloomberg has also now reported that Goldman Sachs is 'eliminating posts in its mortgage and investment banking units as the credit contraction saps..

The numbers are small. But they always are at the start. Its not just first time buyers and people on the economic periphery that will stop flying in the months to come.

WWW

99jolegg

11th Apr 2008, 14:47

I agree, Kerosine. I have no reason to disbelieve WWW's input; simply because it's based on sound logic regarding events now, and in the past.

I just thought I'd point out the poor analogy which I think over-simplifies something that isn't simple.

mustflywillfly

11th Apr 2008, 15:02

Mav you got that number of the truck driving school?

kj990

11th Apr 2008, 15:25

This 'slowdown' could make the the last one look like a rounding error. It's the end of decades of credit expansion. Debt, debt, debt, it was bound to end in tears.

The glass half-full crowd are being led by Gordon Brown & Alastair Darling which should be cause for major concern.

My employer when not losing millions on a new building has claimed that at $120/bbl oil there is no profit to be made. Might be time to sell the gold for some tinned food :eek:.

student88

11th Apr 2008, 15:31

WWW, I couldn't agree more to what you've just said over the last few pages. Some people don't realise that just because it worked out good for them it doesn't mean that it'll work out just as well for everyone else. Yes, it's good to have a positive mental attitude but it wont save you from hitting the ground at 100 miles an hour when you've just realised you've jumped out the aircraft without your parachute. (please don't correct me on the terminal v speed of a human falling to earth)

S88:ok:

coming to a doll office near you!

Gbird

11th Apr 2008, 15:46

Ok.....so my earlier post about the downturn potentially not affecting Australia may have been a bit premature...

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23525418-23349,00.html

Electricflyer

11th Apr 2008, 16:46

I think it was called Truck Masters... I may need that..;)

Wodka

11th Apr 2008, 16:47

Interesting thread... WWW makes sensible observations and I think we should all look at the situation without hysteria or emotion. Plan now to save a lot of pain in the future months.

For me, I have been considering the option of doing the CPL then doing an FI course and working with the aim of staying current and building experience.

This would mean delaying the IR to save the potential revalidation costs in 12m assuming recuitment will slow to a crawl by the end of the summer. I am modular and have no debt.

I just can't decide if this is a good bet or just push on with the IR & MCC and see what the market is like come Sept / Oct - any opinions or advice welcome!

mustflywillfly

11th Apr 2008, 17:24

Wodka,

I have decided to do CPL and FI whilst holding off the IR for approx 12 months.

My concern now though is that there will be less interest in the GA sector with less bods having the money to learn to fly and poss a reduction in the requirement for FIs. Fortunately I am only on a career break from the RN and can pick up the phone and scream "I'm a Naval Officer get me outta here!" anytime.

I will pop out the system with the FI in Oct/Nov time - also not ideal!! Ahh Well, life would be dull if we just kept the status quo year in year out.

Ground School is killing me. 320 P of F questions practised on the BGS QB today. Arrrrgghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

Oh and BTW I am 32 so time is also not on my side. Hey Ho.

MFWF :O

Wee Weasley Welshman

11th Apr 2008, 17:28

You sound fairly well positioned compared to many. I'm sure it'll work out fine and these days 32 is young. The days when airlines were striving to find recruits that would stay with them for 30 years are gone. If they get the bonded time plus a couple of years out of you then they'll be happy with that.

WWW

potkettleblack

11th Apr 2008, 18:33

If you really want to enter into this game (the flying one that is) then please please please choose a low risk strategy. Don't go out and take on any significant debt that you can't service comfortably. Stick to the day job and chip away at the study and position yourself nicely for when the times get good again in the next few years.

If you want further evidence of a impending downturn, just today FR have announced that they are going to be grounding 20 a/c for the winter. Sure they will continue to take on 250hr wannabes BUT that is for the sole reason that you are a source of profit to them. Once you are line trained and on your Brookfield contract then don't be surprised if the phone doesn't ring and there isn't a roster for you to fly. If you have large debts and no fallback plan then you will be screwed when the work dries up. And that assumes that you get a flying job in the first place! Tread carefully.

Wee Weasley Welshman

11th Apr 2008, 18:38

Christ on a bike! 20 a/c over the winter? Wasn't it 9 last winter?

This whole thing about taking on SSTR cadets when there is no flying for them to do really is starting to stink (if its the case).

WWW

Wodka

11th Apr 2008, 18:59

Jesus that is a HUGE number of aircraft to be sitting around all winter... at the rough 6 crews per a/c thats 120 FO's and 120 CP's effectively off roster.

This could actually play into Ryanair's hands as their annual productivity over the rolling 12m period will plummet if they spread the work around the whole pilot base (assuming no redundancies) ... meaning they could stop recruitment knowing they can hammer there existing pilots over the summer.

If... as said they continue to recruit during this period, the only reason I could see possible for this would be the introduction of more a/c in the summer alongside the restored grounded a/c meaning that crews were required to be in place and trained before the new aircraft arrived.

nich-av

11th Apr 2008, 19:04

I agree with WWW, everyone should start thinking about stopping training.
You are right, even Ryanair is grounding their aircraft for the winter.

Anyway you forgot to mention that Aer Lingus ordered 12 aircraft: http://www.airbus.com/en/presscentre/pressreleases/pressreleases_items/08_04_11_aer_lingus_a350900_a330300.html

Airlines come and airlines go.
Why would Ryanair need to mention that they need to ground 20 aircraft for the winter? Answer: Free advertising and making other airlines panic.

So why did they buy 10 more aircraft 18 months ago for delivery in 2008 when they knew back then that the oil prices would climb? Is MOL such a bad forecaster? Not sure about that but MOL is certainly a good advertiser.

Read this: appeared in the guardian 08/02/2008
The head of Ryanair and scourge of environmentalists is a hard man to love, but Michael O'Leary's statement this week that he would welcome a recession has forced us to question the assumption that it would be bad news for everyone. O'Leary's thinking is entirely selfish: he hopes a recession will force weaker rivals out of business and dissuade governments from introducing green taxes.

http://truckdriver.blog-city.com/httpwwwguardiancoukbusiness2008feb08economics.htm

http://news.manta.com/articles/description/2006060130000148-0304

Business is like politics.
Don't let yourself be manipulated.

Jetdriver

11th Apr 2008, 19:15

He didn't "Block your account". I raised an objection about our continued use of allowing a username that promotes your business. We don't normally let that happen as our advertisers are expected to pay for advertising. In fact the moderator of this site advocated your position to some extent, so I think you owe him an apology.

Your access would have been restricted while the the changes were effected. However despite this inconvenience you can now resume where you left off.

nich-av

11th Apr 2008, 19:32

I understand that.

I don't want to hide either you know, I think it should be fair that everyone knows that I may not be objective in some regards.

I apologise for the inconvenience.

Don't bother, our managers are looking into you guys for ads, I'm just there to test your nerves. :ok:

Artie Fufkin

11th Apr 2008, 19:42

Nich Av ,

I thought the mods were extremely generous in allowing you to advertise for free as long as they did.

But you do have a point. At least we know your continual objections to SSTRs and suggestions that fATPLs should indulge in a pointless and expensive hour building course instead has a commercial interest if you use your company name.

:ok:

nich-av

11th Apr 2008, 22:37

There's always you 4 or 5 guys criticising anything here about me and my company.

I wonder what motivates you?

It's a shame that we cant have a civilised conversation without becoming personal. Stay focused on the topic, bring up some interesting stuff, discuss, chill-out. If you have anything personal to say use the PM.
No need to bluff around saying how bad we are (when you don't even have a clue), just to show everyone how good you are at it. It's not like it's gonna earn you the legion d'honneur.

You support expensive SSTR's and integrated FTO's?
I support low-cost flight training and anything that goes with it and anything that would bring any expensive school to lower their prices.

Why? Because I know what it takes for a middle-class student to pay for aviation training. Haven't I risked my life on the roads driving for a car rental agency during the day while working night shifts at an airport hotel and going to my theory PPL lessons in the evening? On average I didn't sleep for the 4 first days of a new week.
Mates of mine work as cab drivers, dish washers, waiters, cabin crew,etc.. to get there.

Why should you bash anyone working for a good cause?

nich-av

11th Apr 2008, 23:07

Interesting discussion as to what I think is causing this recession, ie Wall Street analysts and their negative predictions diffused in the media:

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/3930630/

and another one that mirrors this topic, some saying it's not a good time to become a pilot, others saying we're on the edge of the pilot supply cliff.

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/3931565/

I personally think we're on the edge of the cliff and though I know very well that flight schools have been using this argument abusively to market training at higher prices, this is becoming real.
Read the cover of the magazine www.airliners.tv (http://www.airliners.tv)
I think that this recession will only temporarily delay the effect (for as long as it lasts).

Re-Heat

12th Apr 2008, 02:36

So why did they buy 10 more aircraft 18 months ago for delivery in 2008 when they knew back then that the oil prices would climb? Is MOL such a bad forecaster? Not sure about that but MOL is certainly a good advertiser.
He is an asset trader as well - he aims to offload older 737-800s to replace them with newer ones, so his fleet is always newer, and he makes a huge profit on being able to provide aircraft to the secondary market.

6 airlines bust in 2 weeks, and surely Alitalia to follow within a week or two as well...

- ATA
- Oasis HK
- Aloha
- Frontier
- Skybus

nich-av

12th Apr 2008, 04:18

He is an asset trader as well - he aims to offload older 737-800s to replace them with newer ones, so his fleet is always newer, and he makes a huge profit on being able to provide aircraft to the secondary market.

Yes and yet he won't order more than he needs to replace unless he's sure that he can use the additional aircraft. 18 months ago, he knew very well that oil would be traded at 110USD/barrel today, I've heard him say it with my own ears.

We have been in a similar situation to the actual situation 4 years ago with an epicenter in Europe unlike today in USA
Read this article published in June 2004:

The soaring price of petrol has added to the financial squeeze. Ryanair, EasyJet and BmiBaby have so far chosen to protect their cut-price reputation rather than joining British Airways in imposing a levy on ticket prices to cover high oil costs. But a long-term increase in fuel prices could force them to edge up fares, and now may be the time for customers to cash in on low prices.
Casualties are already piling up. In April, Planet Air called in liquidators after flying for 14 months from Leeds Bradford airport. Then last month, Birmingham-based Duo went bust, leaving 50,000 passengers with forward bookings as unsecured creditors.
In Ireland, Shannon-based SkyNet grounded its fleet on May 25, two weeks after sacking half its pilots. It was the third Irish low-cost operator, after JetGreen and JetMagic, to cease trading this year.
Elsewhere in Europe, the failures are numerous. Goodjet, Flying Finn and Ciao Fly have briefly graced the continent's skies before shutting down.
The succession of strugglers has left consumer watchdogs with a headache. Unlike tour operators, low-cost airlines have no obligation to lodge a bond protecting passengers if they go out of business. Travellers with advance bookings can be left out of pocket or worse, stranded hundreds of miles from home.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/travel/2004/jun/05/cheapflights.guardiansaturdaytravelsection

Alitalia's crisis has nothing to do with the recession, but it is very dangerous indeed.

clear prop!!!

12th Apr 2008, 06:11

The troubles at Alitalia etc etc haven’t ‘just happened’ overnight.
All sectors of industry are littered with brands which are no more.
Why?... Because their markets were talking themselves into recession?
No,… it is simply because other Brands got better, bigger, smarter and adapted to consumer trends and economic situations.
Take the motor industry. Where are Austin, Rover, Hillman, Triumph etc etc.? They, and dozens of other brands disappeared when the number of cars on the road was a tiny fraction of what we see today.
Fact is, they hadn’t adapted to change and had become financially unviable.
Times change and brands die That does not mean that industries die!
There are more people flying now than when Alitalia and all the other Airlines, which are no more, started to get into trouble. They did NOT go bust over night!!. Their problems have been there for years!
I’ll put money on the fact that, come back in a years time, and we will have seen year on year increase in passenger numbers and no fewer pilots.
EZY, Ryan Virgin etc etc make money….loads of it. It will take more than the gloom and doom we are seeing here to put them into a loss situation or, even to get close to dipping into their somewhat large reserves.
They may well make less profit and their share price may drop for a while but, will they stop efforts to expand and increase turnover? I think not!!
An economic downturn is a challenge. The weak will get weaker and the strong will get stronger. Market size will increase, but the players may change…that is not a new concept! We will make every effort not to head backwards, it’s not in human nature.
The easiest way towards a recession is to talk your way into it. It’s a chain reaction!
You could be forgiven for thinking that certain individuals here take great pleasure in bringing to us every scrap of bad news they can find and deliver from their ‘I’m all right Jack’ ivory tower. I’m sure they don’t but, it sure as hell looks that way.
The worst thing to come out of the 90’s for wannabes was that BA got financially smart, scrapped their sponsorship programme and started to make money.
Now don’t get me wrong! I accept that we are in difficult times. But Hey,what’s new in this business!

Anyway, if you are worried, go modular, take your time. Get an FI job (there are LOADS of them), build some hours… put yourself further up the food chain. But that’s an other argument all together!!!

LJones

12th Apr 2008, 06:22

Wow! that was a great read, especially after dozens of posts where people say don't bother training if your in it for the money. I start my training monday week, 21st april, and all i heard from people is that don't bother. I shrugged them off because i want to fly because i have a passion for it.
Your post should enlighten people that the aviation industry is not going to go bust, the world economy needs it... what else are we going to use, go back to the ship liners...:E

Wee Weasley Welshman

12th Apr 2008, 10:24

Clear Prop! -- Thank you for your post. Your comments:

You could be forgiven for thinking that certain individuals here take great pleasure in bringing to us every scrap of bad news they can find and deliver from their ‘I’m all right Jack’ ivory tower. I’m sure they don’t but, it sure as hell looks that way.

I take no pleasure. The scraps I offer are all from quality sources. My Ivory Tower offers no gaurantee of keeping my base or seat. My wife is drawing up redundancy plans which may well include herself. The recession will be harsh and unpleasant. I certainly will be affected.

Again and again we shoot the messenger despite the Chancellor of the Exchequer stating the we face the worst financial crisis since the 1930's. The country, the West, the airline business is deeply in the brown stuff. Other pilots hate me for saying so.

But it is a fact things have never been worse for Wannabes. THIS IS 1990.

Learn from history or be condemned to repeat its mistakes.

WWW

3Greens

12th Apr 2008, 10:51

WWW, i have followed this thread with interest and cannot help but feel you are banging your head against a brick wall with some here. You have provided tangible evidence from a variety of sources that support your arguement whilist others seem to prefer the "positive attitude" theory. Whilst i admire those able to put a positive spin on things when the chips are down, i firmly believe we are merely at the start of what is going to be a global downturn, and not only in the filed of aviation.
When the national banks (FEd, ECB) and pumping huge sums into the global money markets and STILL the banks won't lower their loan rates or more importantly, loan to each other we are in BIG trouble.

Over the last decade or so we have become used to cheap and easy debt, many using equity proprty realease.
I would be very careful about taking on a massive debt at this time. £100K with no job at the end of it...risky a few years ago,; but now -madness!

Good luck to those still not listening i fear you are going to need balls of steel.

Wee Weasley Welshman

12th Apr 2008, 11:03

Its by far the most important Wannabe issue. I can't find any other place where it is being discussed and therefore I am keen that the issue is fully explored here.

Cheers

WWW

Philpaz

12th Apr 2008, 11:42

Its by far the most important Wannabe issue. I can't find any other place where it is being discussed and therefore I am keen that the issue is fully explored here.

And finally a sensible thread from Le Paz;

It does appear that a majority of people participating in this thread are in deep denial about ALL our economic futures, either people are not watching the news, reading the papers or are simply so focussed on there dream that they have tunnel vision. Then again I hear Ray Bans are making a comeback, perhaps they are of the rose tinted variety.:cool:

I dont think anyone on this Forum would advise you not to train, they are simply trying to get you to approach with caution, have a plan of attack and not to run in blind. I get the feeling that a lot of the "keep smiling and it will all be ok" Clan are young, if i am correct in this assumption then what is the rush? Or is it simply that your parents are the ones taking the financial responsibility for your impatience?

Rather than shooting down dear old WWW at every opportunity, why not look at what he's saying, investigate, follow the links he is posting. He's not living on cloud nine like a lot of you (and look how cloud 9 aviation ended up!) he is simply firing a warning shot accross your bow, proceed at your own risk as it were.

I commend anyone that follows there dream and more so achieves it, but heading in to 100k of debt when the market is under so much strain, the banks are struggling and things are set to get worse is hardly commendable. If we avoid recession (unlikely in my oppinion) then there is still the oil connundrum, if we suddenly find more oil there is still the O'learys of this world to contend with. The outlook for aviation is bleak, therefore the struggle to the RHS is going to be harder than ever and i know i'd rather have the realist, the person that is aware of what is happening around them and plans accordingly sat next to me on the flight deck than the rose tinted briggade. But then again without correcting your heading now, you might not come out the other end of whatever were heading for now.

I'm training modular by the way, did consider OAT and CTC but decided against Integrated. Rather earn while i train.

Phil

nich-av

12th Apr 2008, 14:22

It does appear that a majority of people participating in this thread are in deep denial about ALL our economic futures, either people are not watching the news, reading the papers or are simply so focussed on there dream that they have tunnel vision.

The problem is partially in the news Philpaz.

All these rumours and negative thinking is bringing these airlines down.

Yesterday, AirTran lost 30% in the last hour of trade at Wall Street due to rumours saying that they were going to have the same problems as Frontier.

After closure, Air Tran responded with this:

Air tran , said late Friday its balance sheet is "ample" to fund operations, in light of the company's stock volatility. Shares of AirTran, which closed down 34.6% at $4.13, rebounded 29.3% to $5.34 in after-hour activity. AirTran said it has $358 million in cash and investments on its balance sheet. "AirTran Airways is one of the strongest low-cost carriers operating today," said Bob Fornaro, AirTran president and chief executive, in a statement. AirTran made the statement following a recent string of low-cost airlines that have folded because of high fuel prices.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b61D05CD7-97A4-410A-9494-ACA47F2EEF18%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo

Another proof that I'm gonna quote from the equivalent thread on Airliners "Horrible time to become a pilot or perfect time?":

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/3931565/

Interesting stuff here, for those of you who read Airliners Magazine this month you may have read an article of something along the lines of "THE PILOT SHORTAGE IS FINALLY HERE" You can see a copy of the cover here at http://www.airliners.tv (http://www.airliners.tv/) but I don't have a link to the article and I am just not willing to type it up. Anyway I came across another article saying the exact opposite essentially there couldn't be a worse time to try to become a pilot, this one from the NY Times which may be seen here at:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/10/bu...&scp=9&sq=pilot&st=nyt&oref=slogin (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/10/bu...&scp=9&sq=pilot&st=nyt&oref=slogin)

An aviation magazine say we have a huge pilot shortage in the very near future, economy newspaper says the exact opposite. Who shall we believe? Industry analysts or Wall Street analysts?

As you will see, the arguments are very credible in both cases.

Grass strip basher

12th Apr 2008, 14:23

I love the idea that MOL "knew" the oil price was going to be $110-115 but then ryanair chose to be largely unhedged!... ha ha ha :rolleyes:

A and C

12th Apr 2008, 14:37

nich-av

12th Apr 2008, 14:39

I love the idea that MOL "knew" the oil price was going to be $110-115 but then ryanair chose to be largely unhedged!...

He knew very well and yet he confirmed the options for 2008. Everything he's shouting out in the media is for his own good. He's going to ground 20 aircraft and read further down for the real reason:

An article from February 2008:

Mr O'Leary said yesterday he could see "no reason" to scale back Ryanair's plans to grow capacity by 20pc each year.
"Part of that is because we can't (constrain growth), we confirm our options on aircraft two years out," he said. "And there are some opportunities that only crop up during a downturn".

Mr O'Leary later added that an impending economic recession could benefit Ryanair in the "long term" as it would "bring an end to the debate about environmental taxes on air travel".

and here the real reason why he will be grounding 20 aircraft this winter:

Meanwhile, he is preparing to ground a "significant" percentage of its Dublin fleet next winter in protest the airport's high charges. Ryanair now has 22 planes based at Dublin.

http://www.eturbonews.com/1164/budget-airline-course-perfect-storm-fuel-cost

Grass strip basher

12th Apr 2008, 14:48

I also hear he heats his house by burning £50 notes belonging to both himself and Ryanair shareholders and is also being nominated for the Nobel peace prize for the charitable work he does keeping poor lowly paid pilots off the streets. :ugh:

Or perhaps he is all about money (he has after all said he doesn't give a sh*t about pilots) and being unhedged could cost him tens of millions...

But he knew oil was going to $110??.... even he is not stupid or arrogant enough to pretend he can predict the oil price.

The only way he could gain from a recession is lots of other airlines going out of business... and that is not going to be good for pilot recruitment.

nich-av

12th Apr 2008, 15:45

For 2007/8, Ryanair has enjoyed average prices of about $65. This price could rise as high as $85 for 2008/9, Mr O'Leary warned, in a development that could add €280m to the airline's costbase.

This was said last February and oil prices have not risen against the euro by much since then, only the USD and GBP dropped, making oil prices rise too high for carriers who rely on these currencies. The EUR is traded at almost 1.6 now while it only broke the magic 1.5 mark 46 days ago.

The GBP is only worth 1.25 EUR and still free diving...

Grass strip basher

12th Apr 2008, 16:03

So your point is because of the move in the Euro that the oil price is not hurting European airlines??

nich-av

12th Apr 2008, 17:10

Yes, the kerosene at the pump hasn't risen unusually in the past few months.

Even in the US, AVGas prices are pretty much unchanged since November 2007. AvGas at our airfield is 3.7USD/USG compared to 3.5 in early 2007.

The media make a huge fuss of all this.

Oil prices have increased steadily over the past 5 years as a result of a healthy inflation. What you see today at your local gas station is not the result of a recession, a crisis or whatever the media is trying to make us believe.
It's an increase that we've been living with for decades now.

A New B747-100 costed 25 million USD at launch, today you'll pay over 200 million for a B748. A new Cessna 150 would cost 15k USD back in 1970, today you'll pay about 20k for that very same now used aircraft with 10K TT.

Airlines usually take profit of this argument to apply illegal fuel surcharges to boost their profits.

What we see in the US is a devaluation of the USD, but as I've told many times, it's their own fault. OPEC has made it clear that they are charging the exact same price for their fuel as they did 12 months ago and that they won't give in to help the broken US economy.

A solution for the US? Better regulate the inflow of Chinese products, set up better industrial environments, stop fighting wars, etc... Just follow the democratic electoral campaigns, there's good idea's in there.

Grass strip basher

12th Apr 2008, 17:29

Ah it is reassuring to know that the profit warnings we are getting from the airlines are not real as well... and I am sure the pilots of Oasis will be pleased to hear that their company has not really gone bust... :ugh: :ugh:

The price of oil has not really gone up in "real" terms.... that is perhaps the most bizarre statement I have ever seen on Pprune.... and you wonder why people don't take you seriously... its is frightening they let people like you train to be airline pilots.... perhaps that is why T&Cs are in freefall in the industry.. a dumbing down of the required pilot IQ

nich-av

12th Apr 2008, 18:07

I won't waste my time explaining something that you don't want to understand.

It is more frightning to see your kind of snob, macho, uncool, "I'm always right mentality" in a cockpit. People visiting this forum do get a good idea of what kind of people they'll be flying with and sadly some here tend to ruin the pilot image with childish comments and alot of disrespect.

Pilots used to be cool and smart guys who needed to pass difficult entry selections at legacy carriers, today the cockpit get filled with self-sponsored clueless sissies with wealhty parents who would pay a fortune to tell their neighbours that their son/daughter is training for the right hand seat. (with respect to wealthy students that do reflect exemplary motivation).

My experience tells me that such a guy can come out of the ATPL exam room asking what a King Air or a Twin-Otter is...

For your information I have passed the Eurocontrol assessment with success 3 years ago, and I have an average IQ of 145. I think you should reconsider your own IQ before posting such comments.

Sorry for flaming at you but you've asked for it.

clear prop!!!

12th Apr 2008, 18:59

Well said that man!!:ok:

Wee Weasley Welshman

12th Apr 2008, 21:00

A very bullish move to sell your house and move into rented accomodation and in the short term I think it will make money.

However I don't expect that you keep the cash under the bed but in a bank, If things are going to get as bad as you think then some of the banks will go down and the govermment won't be able to save them all.

So by selling your house you may find yourself with no money due to the bank crashing no house to live in and no job. I think I will just stay in the house that I own, at least I will not be pennyless and have to pay rent to keep a roof over my head.

I find it quite ironic that your money making idea is based on a smallish economic turndown (more my view of things) rather that the full blown crash that you seem to be predicting.

Its a very Bearish move - not bullish. My cash in the bank used to be in Icesave but as the Icelandic banking system moves towards collapse I have moved my money into Northern Rock. Having a 6.35% fixed one year easy access account that is 100% guaranteed by the treasury over an above the £35k banking code limit makes it a no brainer...

So I have considered a systemic collapse of the banking system and taken appropriate steps. In the meantime the next house I buy is going down 2% a month whilst my equity in the bank is going up.

This is all beside the point. Nich-av has never sat in a commercially operated flight deck and therefore his views are irrelevant speculation and misinformed guesswork. I do and I can tell you that it doesn't matter one jot whether you are Int or Mod or 40 or 19.

IT DOESN'T MATTER.

WWW

Artie Fufkin

12th Apr 2008, 21:53

Nich Av,

Since you accused me a few months back of being none other than international hollywood film star John Travolta, I have observed your postings with a mixture of amusement and increasing incredulity.

The thing that has amused me the most, is that on nearly every thread you apprear on you seem to manage to upset someone, who generally tells you that you have no idea what you are talking about.

Has this trend passed you by un-noticed?

Sorry for flaming at you but you've asked for it.:E

Wee Weasley Welshman

12th Apr 2008, 22:09

He's a useful idiot..

Not the first and certainly not the last. I thank him for his contribution to Wannabes.

WWW

Yahweh

12th Apr 2008, 22:22

"Since you accused me a few months back of being none other than international hollywood film star John Travolta, I have observed your postings with a mixture of amusement and increasing incredulity"

"Pulp fiction" was pretty good but man you were crap in "look who's talkin" ;)

nich-av

12th Apr 2008, 23:49

The thing that has amused me the most, is that on nearly every thread you apprear on you seem to manage to upset someone, who generally tells you that you have no idea what you are talking about.

Has this trend passed you by un-noticed?

There is no such trend seen the amount of PM's of support and advising requests I get. It's always the same 4-5 guys on here. People are used to reading the usual bull**** you guys post.

Giving people another insight, the opportunity to look at things from another perspective and sometimes making them realise that we're living in a highly manipulated world... isn't it great?

Yeah WWW, I guess this battle here can provide a good read for many wannabe's. Discussing job outlooks is very complicated and anyone can be proven wrong with time.

My thought is that we shouldn't jump to conclusions too fast. We already knew in early 2007 that there would be a predictable slowdown in 2008 and that weaker airlines would go bust. I think it takes more than that to stop pilot demand. I'm very concerned by the general loss of interest for the job by young people and I understand that it has a lot to do with the training's financials and lack of social life.
This reflects the shift of average age of trainees: not so long ago starting cadets were aged 20 to 25 and 30+ was a no go.
Today classrooms are filled with people aged 25-35.

If the recession ends 6 months from now and Alitalia finds a new owner, we'll be looking at a huge shortage of pilots. Luckily 2007 was a good year for flight schools and the effects of a pilot shortage may be delayed till mid-2009 or so.

Student88 came up with a valid argument saying there's no shortage of unexperienced pilots. Let me twist this argument and say that there is a shortage of suitable unexperienced pilots. Just because you have that blue licence doesn't mean you're good for the job.

What airlines want:
-min. 500 hours
-Good level in English and carrier's national language(s)
-Positive motivation
-Good psychometrics and IQ
-people suitable for an early upgrade

Useless to say that the naive sons and daughters of mummy and daddy who have 200h TT + B737 TR are the least suitable candidates for an airline. Not a wonder that there are plenty of them struggling to find the first job.

Go modular while working your ass off to finally get to that damned interview and your chances are already bigger. First because interviewers will like your story, second because you'll be hungry for that first job.

Artie Fufkin

13th Apr 2008, 00:03

What airlines want:
-min. 500 hoursThis is exactly what winds people up.

This is a total fabrication designed to market your company's hour building services. Everyone on this forum knows that loads of people get hired with 200 hours (or less!).

STOP ADVERTISING!

:=

Deano777

13th Apr 2008, 00:05

On my airline induction week (last year)

Cadet a) 151hrs

Cadet b) 156hrs

Cadet c) 159hrs

and so on..

nich-av

13th Apr 2008, 02:41

Oh well Artie, that's not what I mean to say with that.
Let me give you an example:

Airline A wants to hire 10 candidates for May-June.
They have received 50 applications.

Example 1: 2 applicants have over 1000TT, 13 have over 500TT, 35 have below 500 TT.

Guess what happens to the 35 low hour applications in this case?
They fly into the trash can.

Example 2: 1 over 1000TT, 5 over 500TT and 44 below 500TT.

5 out of 6 500+ pilots hired, 5 out of 44 below 500TT selected.
Those 5 out 44 will be those considered most suitable and certainly those who have A-levels and additional skills.

500 hours seems to be the magic number in Europe and 1000 for the US.

I can say the same ridiculous argument to you: you are a frustrated cadet struggling to find your first job or a student pilot that would diffuse false rumours to increase your own job chances... := :ok:
No advertising here, I won't put that much time for the 10 or 20 viewers of this single thread, I would be mad if that were true.

Artie Fufkin

13th Apr 2008, 08:19

You are still peddling total nonsense!

If you insist on quoting 500 hours, with its implicit advise for fATPLs to go out and build more hours (a service that your company conveniently has a package for) then be specific. Try the UK as an example. Name some airlines that won't consider a 200 hour pilot. I'll start you off;

Virgin Atlantic.

Errr....

Please stop spreading disinformation that can only aid your commercial venture.

The recognised wisdom is that you have a good chance of getting airline work (here in the UK) with 200 hours, and failing that, to continue flying by instructing, or being more inventive by banner towing, parachute dropping etc, AND NOT spending 18,000 euros on an hour building course (or speculative SSTRs!)

(and this thread currently has had over 13,000 hits, the vast majority of which are desperate to secure thier first job and are vulnerable to dodgy advise!)

nich-av

13th Apr 2008, 08:56

You're the one talking non-sense my dear friend.

You would rather spend 30 hours burning electricity on a SSTR than 150 burning fuel in a MEP? Come on. Which is more likely to earn you a job anyway?

The recognised wisdom is that you have a good chance of getting airline work (here in the UK) with 200 hours

Huh? I thought that you said that the huge recession and credit crunch were going to burn everyone alive and that UK airlines weren't hiring since January??

Get your thoughts together before opposing your own arguments.

I have been following a recruitment process at a given airline very closely and all I can tell you is that the higher the hours, the better were the chances. Given airline would give preference to 500+ houred guys if such guys applied but often they didn't have a choice and recruited the best 200 hour guys from an integrated course.

If I had my own airline, I would not easily trust a B737 or A320 to a 200 hour guy, let alone an RJ. I think that the U.S. has a far better system allowing students to build more hours more easily so allowing them to keep very high recruiting standards. What justifies the JAA rule forbidding P2 time on MEP? :ugh:

No matter how the student does it, instructing, hour building or air work, students need to acquire the necessary experience. How they do it is their choice and I would not try to influence that choice because I think that they are all very good.
I would love to see more flight schools taking initiatives though, rather than just the usual focussing on the pupil's money.

I'd rather see us competing in challenge against fair training providers who care about their pilots than all the expensive providers that'll loose comptitiveness and start going bankrupt when low-cost flight training becomes a norm a few years from now.

As such I applaude US based JAA flight schools for taking the initiative of offering fair pricing compared to many European FTO's offering sky-high integrated packages with most of the flying in the US...

A and C

13th Apr 2008, 09:27

As I said above I think you will make money and the move into Northern Rock was an astute one however your making this work rather points to my view of an economic slowdown rather than the full blown crash that your posts seem to indicate.

I hope that you do make a lot of money on this house deal that you are doing with the IMF thinking that UK houses are 30% overprice it would seem that you are on to a winner and you will pull one of the "but to let" brigade out of the fire as well!

When the dust has settled from all of this I will be most interested how much free spending cash you make, after all it is the disposable income that drives the market for airline seats and that is what this thread is realy all about.

As for nich-av I would be very interested to see a few photos of his fleet, just to see if it is a "quality" hours building option or if he is renting a bunch of old dogs.

Re-Heat

13th Apr 2008, 11:04

nich-av - stay on track on the economy...you are digressing to every subject under the sun.

What we see in the US is a devaluation of the USD, but as I've told many times, it's their own fault. OPEC has made it clear that they are charging the exact same price for their fuel as they did 12 months ago and that they won't give in to help the broken US economy.
OPEC do not "charge" a price - they pump the oil - and they are pumping oil at a similar rate to the past couple of years. Demand has risen, therefore with supply reasonably constant, prices in US$ have risen.

Price rises have been absorbed by (now unprofitable) refiners and petrol station retailers to some extent, and in Europe by the decline in the US$ - in US$ terms however, the price rise has been massive and very real indeed...have you driven in the US recently...?

Artie Fufkin

13th Apr 2008, 11:37

Huh? I thought that you said that the huge recession and credit crunch were going to burn everyone alive and that UK airlines weren't hiring since January??

Get your thoughts together before opposing your own arguments.:confused: When? Do feel free to use the quote function!

nich-av

13th Apr 2008, 14:39

Oh sorry Artie, as you say, all you did lately on this thread is post off-topic attacks to me.

A & C, me & you we're no competition. You're 7/11, I'm Walmart.
You're happy to rent your Cessna to 1 or 2 pilots per month, we aim for 40 per month. You must be a real genious to estimate an aircraft's quality by only seeing a tiny lil' picture. Our goold old PA-23 just got 2 new engines installed and 3 full-time mechanics worked throught the hard winter to overhaul all the equipment to perfection.

Envy my friends, is your worst enemy.

Sorry mods, I had to respond to these personal, totally off-topic attacks.

Wodka

13th Apr 2008, 15:19

Sorry mods, I had to respond to these personal, totally off-topic attacks.

Fine then lets draw a line under that and get this thread back on track please.

This is a useful discussion that needs to take place and the constant and frankly irrelevant "my Cessna is better than yours" type posts we have had over the last few pages is only serving to dilute this thread and make it a chore to read.

:rolleyes:

smith

13th Apr 2008, 16:31

wow www

I really think you should be a lecturer at LSE, you take this money stuff very seriously. I don't think I could be bothered shifting houses twice in a short period of time to make a few bob.

As long as I am comfortable and have enough to pay the mortgage I'm happy. Personally I couldn't be bothered with the upheaval of two house moves. Each to their own I suppose, and I am sure there will be other fanatics going through this extreme procedure on the trail of the greenback.

Good luck

Wee Weasley Welshman

13th Apr 2008, 19:19

I do find economics to be interesting and I am involved with the discussion of economics on a different internet forum. But I'm no expert. If I really could predict the financial future I sure as hell wouldn't be flying for a living.

I do believe that we are moving into a Kondratiev Wave winter cycle.

Our (Western) debt has become unsustainable and the ability to buy our way out of further problems is severely compromised. One only needs to look at the decade long nightmare of Japan to see that zero interest rates and all the stimulation in the world has failed to bring it out of its slump. We are witnessing merely the beginning of the debt implosion that inevitably follows the excesses.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d4/Kondratieff_Wave.gif

Will Hutton has an excellent piece on the UK housing crash in this weeks Observer:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/apr/13/housingmarket.economy

And if all this is just too depressing you can trust Matt to make you smile about it:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/graphics/2008/04/13/matt.gif

WWW

MarkColeman

13th Apr 2008, 19:49

If I really could predict the financial future I sure as hell wouldn't be flying for a living.

Hmm this attitude isnt very befitting of a man lecturing people on a future career in aviation. Hey lots of the people on here have dreamed about flying for a living since they were born, why dont you take up a career in economics instead and make one more cockpit seat available for people who really want it?

Philpaz

13th Apr 2008, 20:05

why dont you take up a career in economics instead and make one more cockpit seat available for people who really want it?

So if we want to be pilots then we aren't allowed any other interests? We have to live and breath it? Jeez, get over yourself..........:ugh:

MarkColeman

13th Apr 2008, 20:13

Why should i get over myself? i didnt for one second imply that pilots cant have any interests other than flying, perhaps you should re-read my post.

Philpaz

13th Apr 2008, 20:22

You are implying that because he has an outlook (through a personal interest in economics) that isn't rosy for the economy (aviation in particular), that he should re-trade. Can his main interest not be aviation because he has a side interest in economics, or is he only allowed 1 interest?

Hmm this attitude isnt very befitting of a man lecturing people on a future career in aviation

because advising people of the possible pitfalls of aviation is obviously bad advice? Warning them off aquiring large debt in the current economic climate is obviously ludicrous? Perhaps you should re-read your own post.........

P.S. Just because he wouldn't be flying for a living if he could predict the future (because he would obviously be very very rich) does not mean he wouldn't be flying. If he didn't love flying i find it hard to believe he would have made it through training, never mind all the way to the R/LHS.

Wee Weasley Welshman

13th Apr 2008, 20:40

LHS actually.. ;)

I may well be being too pessimistic about the scale of recession ahead. My aim here is no more than to ensure that Wannabes, often young and none too financially literate, at least consider the threats that are out there. I was in High School during the 1990 - 93 recession and House Price Crash so it wasn't such a big deal for me. For Wannabes and for a great many pilots though it was a total nightmare of crushed dreams, heavy debts and many were forced out of the industry.

I know one fellow who went from an Airbus command with a UK airline to being a window cleaner at one point.

It happens.

My Boss is Andy Harrison and he's working under a pay freeze and tells me there will be blood on the carpet this year as airlines start to go bust. I believe him. I'm just passing on the message (and canceling my yacht order)...

WWW

MarkColeman

13th Apr 2008, 20:41

Ok ill just copy and paste my post so we can both re-read it:
Quote:
If I really could predict the financial future I sure as hell wouldn't be flying for a living.
Hmm this attitude isnt very befitting of a man lecturing people on a future career in aviation. Hey lots of the people on here have dreamed about flying for a living since they were born, why dont you take up a career in economics instead and make one more cockpit seat available for people who really want it?

See i wasnt implying that pilots cant have any other interests in life. Also i wasnt implying that because he has an outlook on the economy that doesnt bode particularly well for aspiring pilots that he should change career.

I just interperet that quote as being from someone who isnt particularly pleased with their career, which could possibly impact on his ability to give fair and balanced advice to said aspiring pilots.

I dont think its necessary to break down what he would and wouldnt be doing if he could see into the future with a magic crystal ball!

Wee Weasley Welshman

13th Apr 2008, 20:45

Mark - I love my career and the job is everything I hoped it would be and more. There isn't a day at work when I don't think how lucky I am.

I'm a happy chap. I just see a lot of evidence that a rather proper Recession is about to befall the UK as it has the US.

WWW

MarkColeman

13th Apr 2008, 20:46

Fair enough WWW, i mean no offence, its just the impression i got.

HappyFran

14th Apr 2008, 11:52

Been following excellent thread :hmm:

As a Wannabee I will try to follow the advice picked up and probably misquoted by me sometime ago.

Hope for the best. Plan for the worst

:O:O

A and C

14th Apr 2008, 12:10

A lot of opinions flying about on this thread with WWW at one end of the scale and Nic-Av at the other (and me somewere in the middle).

I would not take advice from my plumber on medical issues so why the hell should you take advice from any professional pilots (well WWW and me) on financial issues?

It is for you to make up your own minds about entering aviation, I have done the airline gone bust thing with a jet job in the morning and on the dole in the afternoon, but unlike some of my other pilots I did no sit about bleating on about "fighting for my job". I accepted the situation and with a positive attitude got employment to pay the bills and then went about finding another flying job.

I have had a great time aviation, undoubtedly I could have made more money in some other profession but it would not have been as much fun. For me the risks have paid off for you they may not.

However if you don't take the risks you will forever be one of life's spectators and die wishing you had done more with your time.

But all of this is just my opinion

Wee Weasley Welshman

14th Apr 2008, 13:13

http://www.erinaceous.com/index.php

Employing 5000 staff in the property services industry they called in the Administrators this morning. Thats many more staff than were working at Rover Cars when it went under.

We are moving into the job loss phase now. Fear and panic in the housing market will see accelerated losses and very possibly a run on another bank or building society and yes I am looking at you in the bowler hat.

The rapidly broadening realisation amongst the general population is that the credit crunch is not going to be confined to the rarified and removed world of high finance and hedge fund. This realisation will result in reduced spending decisions. All airlines have high fixed costs and a rapid drop in sales on tiny margins means they often go from bumper year to crisis at amazing speed.

By all means continue to deploy your training plan. Perhaps research personal bankruptcy/IVA laws though so you know what your options might be if you do find yourself entering the jobs market during a recession. Perhaps you could structure your finances NOW to protect your assets if the worst comes to the worst and you end up unemployed and severely in debt.

WWW

Wodka

14th Apr 2008, 13:23

WWW if your read the companies press release it states in its letter...

"The administrators of the Company expect to effect a sale of the Insurance
division of the Group, Erinaceous Insurance Services Limited, to a company owned by the Company's lenders.

i.e ... they let them go bust so they could pick up the holding

The Residential Management division (Residential Management Group Limited and its subsidiaries) and Property Maintenance division (Erinaceous Property
Maintenance Limited) also remain outside of any insolvency process and continue to trade as normal"

i.e. ... trade as normal, implying no job losses

Maybe you should check the facts on this particular Company if using it to make a point, before shouting "JOB LOSSES" on here.

Wee Weasley Welshman

14th Apr 2008, 13:29

Its a fair point. Calling in the Administrators doesn't necessarily mean there will be job losses and doubtless there is value to be had in a restructure. I think you'd be very worried if you worked there though? This isn't a local chain of estate agents laying off a few sales staff (though 4,000 will be this year according to their own trade body).

WWW

A and C

14th Apr 2008, 14:02

You grasp the failure of this company as evidence of the crash theory that you are so keen to promote but the company had had a less than clean reputation for some years.

If you had been at Shoreham Airport (one of the company's investments) you would have picked up on rumours about the company a long time back.

The fact of the matter is this company was likely to have gone to the wall at any time and the economic slow down just made the failure sooner rather than later.

Further to that I am told that fraud is being investigated, if this is so the failure of the company might well be down to some one with there hands in the till if this turns out to be the case it hardly supports your economic crash theory.

Grass strip basher

14th Apr 2008, 14:08

How about this one...

Credit crunch continues to bite business says Ernst & Young

~Profit warnings top 100 for second consecutive quarter~
Research released by Ernst & Young today reveals that UK plc saw no respite in the first quarter of 2008 as profit warnings reached 114; the highest first quarter figure since 2001 and up 11 per cent from Q1 2007.

Keith McGregor, Restructuring partner at Ernst & Young comments: “Profit warnings remained above the 100 mark for the second quarter in a row, driven by the deepening impact of the credit crunch and a record number of retail warnings. The last time UK plc issued more than 100 profit warnings in consecutive quarters it was 2001, when the end of the technology-led boom meant painful readjustment. The hangover from the credit-boom could be equally severe especially as some sectors are warning on current poor trading but may have failed to factor in the impact of a sustained downturn in demand.”

“The credit crunch will become real and personal to borrowers this year, especially the two million mortgage holders coming off fix-rate deals. The base rate is expected to continue to fall gradually in 2008, but the same inflationary pressures that will limit the ability of the Bank of England to lower rates, will also eat into the benefit of any rate cut for the consumer. The period of economic uncertainty may even persuade individuals to increase savings from their historic lows, leaving retailers with even less of the disposable income pie.”

You don't have to look far for more and more evidence that things are deteriorating at an astonishing rate... :(

v6g

14th Apr 2008, 14:10

WWw - out of interest, what's your estimated break-even point with selling your house? Ie: what percentage drop in the market do you need to cover the costs of selling and then buying (ignoring the personal hassle factor, just plain numbers).

I've been considering doing the same.

3Greens

14th Apr 2008, 14:15

I assume when calculating the "break even point" one would factor in the wasted money spent on rent in the interim period? Ok, i suppose you could say that the large portion of a mortgage payment is to cover the interest leaving a relitively small portion to actually cover the repayment.

Wee Weasley Welshman

14th Apr 2008, 14:15

Oh I've been shorting this company for some time. My view is that only three parts of the business (insurance, the residential management unit and the property maintenance division) look likely to be spun out. The rest is toast.

Americas 4th largest bank needing $8bn of emergency funding today. UK manufacturers are seeing costs rising by a record 20.4 per cent in March (factory gate prices hit at 17-year high). Philips followed GE from last week in announcing a slump in profits this morning (28%).

It doesn't matter if you are selling money, making widgets or designing white goods - all sectors of the economy are suffering. The airline sector just can't escape this.

WWW

neilcharlton

14th Apr 2008, 14:17

WWW- points are very valid and aspiring pilots would do well to listen to his words of wisdom instead of going on the attack (thank god I don’t have to sit next to any of you on a 12hr flight)
I work as a consultant in the hedge fund industry and know of a lot of people are actually canceling yacht orders… haha ..
Macro economically the outlook does not look bright at all. LIBOR spreads against bank of England base rate is massive, US and UK gov auctions were 3 times over subscribed last month. Banks are basically hording cash as their balance sheets have taken a massive hit. The entire UK economy will suffer, home lending, business lending , finance leading , business investment all will be effected.

I think its fair to say all of the airlines will have killed their expansion plans…. There’s that number being banded around that lot’s of pilots will be retiring soon which will create a massive pilot shortage. If the airlines still lack pilots after the cut backs I’m sure you guys will do great J …

I think you need to take the wider global economic outlook into consideration before signing up to that 50k HSBC loan (If u can still get it ) then looking for a job (that might not be there) and still having the £1000 per month loan repayments for seven years.

I really don’t know how you guys manage to pay back £1000 a month on £30k a year the sums just don’t add up. For £1000 a month I could fly one or two hours in the Jet Provost and drive to the airfield in a Porsche!

yellowsubmarine

14th Apr 2008, 14:21

Not meaning to stick my oar in, where it is not wanted nor needed; however I do not agree as some have said, that this thread is in anyway useful to the so-called 'wannabes'. (not intended as a dig at any individual)

Personally I feel it would be a good move to transfer this thread over to 'Jet Blast'.

YS

Wee Weasley Welshman

14th Apr 2008, 14:26

v6g I plan on 30% nominal house price falls.

The only real cost per month is:

Your released equity in the bank earning interest (around £430 a month per £100k)

PLUS

The mortgage interest you used to pay per month (around £500 a month per £100k)

PLUS

The monthly saving in Buildings and Life insurance premiums

PLUS

Whatever you budgeted for house maintenance per month

MINUS

Your new monthly rent.

In my case its a massive monthly saving to rent from a dumb BTL landlord than from the Halifax. In the current ridiculous house market it if laughably easy to rent a house that would cost you double to buy using a mortgage. Landlords are subsidising their tennants in the hope of future capital growth. Which is now capital shrinking. Which is why we have a nasty crisis. If they want to let me rent their house for (a lot) less than it costs them to buy off the bank then I'm not going to complain.

When it comes to buying you are a chain free buyer able to gaurantee to exchange within 6 weeks. That is worth tens of thousands of pounds when it comes to negotiation time. Find a distressed seller and it can be worth more than that.

Its just a little late to STR now but probably still worth it. You'd be amazed at how nice estate agents are to you when you are chain free with a chunky deposit :)

WWW

YellowSub - I can't think of anything more important to a Wannabes career than whether they start out in a recession or a boom. Given the amount of discussion on which school to go to (as if it matters) I think we can afford one thread on the looming crisis..

Grass strip basher

14th Apr 2008, 14:44

"For £1000 a month I could fly one or two hours in the Jet Provost and drive to the airfield in a Porsche!"

...ha ha some of us may have decided to just that for the next year or so... :ok:

As for is this thread useful well if it acts as a forum to also highlight to wanabees which airlines are struggling then why not?? (But then again I started it so I may be biased...)

Philpaz

14th Apr 2008, 14:51

It probably is one of the best times to train presuming this recession will be over in a few years, also probably the worst time to be getting into the associated debt though.

Wee Weasley Welshman

14th Apr 2008, 15:35

Rex - I'll start work on that time machine just after I've fixed my crystal ball.

I concede that words of warning a while back would have been timely. That's why I have been making grisly noises about the economy here for some time. Over six months ago I posted here:

http://www.pprune.org/forums/showpost.php?p=3557307&postcount=95

My views have hardened since then as the situation has deteriorated further and faster than I thought likely.

I think that a lot of people are expecting at worst a slowdown on the scale we saw post Sept11th which resulted in Wannabes basically having no job opportunities for around 2 years. And yes there were plenty of exceptions to that but for most guys with <500hrs there was a total drought of jobs as some airlines went bust and others froze.

My own view is that we face a 1990 - 1993 style recession rather than a 2002 - 2003 slowdown. That is a very different beast. In the months following Sept 11th in the UK you saw Ryanair and easyJet go to Boeing and Airbus and place orders for nearly 250 new aircraft. Deliveries started within a year. Both operated cadet schemes of some form and both soaked up a lot of pilots displaced from other airlines.

At this time easyJet has shut the recruitment door and Ryanair is planning to ground 20 aircraft over the winter. In both cases UK expansion is only planned to be limited and there may be none at all.

Just these two companies being in a different recruitment mode this time will see even a post Sept 11th slowdown me MUCH more painful for Wannabes than last time. A full blown recession would be an order of magnitude worse.

There are things people can do. Even if they are embarked on an Integrated course there is nothing to stop you cancelling the SSTR you were toying with doing. Nothing to stop you contacting your creditors NOW before you get to the repayment phase and seeing if terms and conditions can be improved. You can make plans for personal insolvency by perhaps spending any savings you have now rather than using a loan to preserve them for a rainy day. If you are going to go bust then its best to have spent all your money.

You might be able to choose between a full time and part time groundschool course. You might be able to ask your employer if part time working or a career break is available which given business belt tightening it might be. This might allow you to keep your old job in some form even whilst you acquire your licenses at a slower rate. You might be able to look at training abroad rather than in the UK (something I'm not a big fan of) as it can save a lot of money in the early training days given the Dollar rate.

There are lots of things to ponder. I hope this thread helps people to ponder.

I certainly think quite a few people will decide not to train or that the credit allowing them to do so will be removed. I think that a great many people will no longer be able to release money by selling their house or gettiing their parents to remortgage. I think that therefore competition for jobs may be less tough in 18 months from now.

I'm perfectly delighted that this view has been expressed as this thread is all about exploring the issues for others benefit.

I just happen to think there won't be any jobs for people to compete for as I expect some airlines to go bust in the meantime.

Which is sad and scary.

WWW

A and C

14th Apr 2008, 16:03

WWW it s good to see that you have mentioned that it might be better to do a modular course over a longer period than get into mega loan situation.

It has long been my contention that the price diference between an integrated course and a modular one is a large price to pay for a bit of help finding a job at the end of the trainning.

Forget all the hype about requireing to be "selected" to get on an integrated course it is all about the trainning company getting your business.

I find myself in agreement with WWW (now thats a change!) about taking a little more time and working wile doing the course part time, this way you can pay as you go with cash that is yours not the banks and this way you might only have to get a loan for the a part of the course (such as the IR).

This is the way that I went about the fATPL, the morgage got paid I only went into a little debt (£7500 in todays money) and I even managed a small holiday during all this.
Of late there has been too much of a rush to spend someone elses money my training was based largley on sound finances and a lot of long hours doing two jobs to pay for it. At the time a few of the guys at the flying club had a bit of a snigger at my slow progress but when the late 80's slump hit I was the one who did not loose the house and car
May be my attitude is a bit old fashoned but 20 years on I enjoy debt free life.

Wee Weasley Welshman

14th Apr 2008, 16:40

Thanks for the personal anecdote. Such an old fashioned attitude will be once again the height of fashion by this time next year.

WWW

Grass strip basher

14th Apr 2008, 17:42

This is an interesting side effect from WWW earlier post on erinacious... where are you doing your training?? Shock horror a kock-on impact to aviation....

http://forums.flyer.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=43135&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0

nich-av

14th Apr 2008, 20:05

Dubai airport announced a 15% increase in passengers during the 1st quarter of 2008 compared to 2007.

I foresee that many European pilots will be hired by the Middle-East in the next decade.

Qantas chief executive Dixon said that the airline industry will be okay.

Airlines are in a better position to combat a potential down cycle than earlier in the decade, says Qantas head Geoff Dixon, who believes those companies have steadily improved their ability to handle downturns in the last six-to-eight years.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/04/14/222964/qantas-chief-believes-carriers-will-withstand-an-industry.html

redsnail

14th Apr 2008, 20:37

v6g

14th Apr 2008, 20:56

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/graphics/2008/04/13/matt.gif

Grass strip basher

15th Apr 2008, 06:38

LONDON, April 15 (Reuters) - The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors UK house price balance felll in March to its lowest in the 30-year history of the survey, RICS said on Tuesday, sending a strong signal that the housing market is cooling fast.
The net balance of surveyors reporting falling, rather than rising, house prices deteriorated to -78.5 in the three months to March from -65.7 in February -- the lowest since survey began in January 1978 and well below forecasts for a reading of -67.5. The figures are likely to reinforce expectations the Bank of England will need to continue cutting interest rates this year,after trimming rates by 25 basis points to 5 percent last week. Britain's biggest mortgage lender Halifax said last week that house prices fell in March at their sharpest pace since the recession of the early 1990s as the credit crunch forces banks to toughen up mortgage terms and begins to hurt consumers. "Sentiment is at a very low ebb and will continue to remain depressed while the economy suffers from this unique liquidity blight," said Jeremy Leaf, RICS spokesman.

Wee Weasley Welshman

15th Apr 2008, 06:56

The chronology of the last recession was massive house price inflation in the years of the late 1980's (Lawson +32.0% 1st Quarter of '89) (Brown +25.8% 1st Quarter '03). Then you get an affordability crisis leading to a crash in house prices. Then finally you get the recession that stems from a collapse in consumer confidence and associated job losses.

ERM related interest rates was partly a trigger last time. This time its a credit crunch.

You'll read lots of arguments in the months ahead that there won't be a house price crash or a recession because employment remains high. This is bogus. The unemployment comes towards the end and merely perpetuates and prolongs the recession. Its not initially causal.

I think from the hunted look in Gordons eyes that he knows it will be bad and that there is nothing a small government with no money can do about it.

WWW

A and C

15th Apr 2008, 08:39

As www says Easyjet have stopped recruting and are over crewed for the winter but it is the fear with some of the easyjet trainers that the company won't have enough crews to cover next summers flying program.

It will be interesting to see if stopping recrutmet is a wise move in the face of an economic crash or management panic in the face of a slow down in the economy.

Only time will tell.

HN1708

15th Apr 2008, 09:27

I think another thing to remember when hearing of Ryanair and the like putting 20 aircaft offline 'for the winter' is that there is a lot of spin on these statements for the sake of the share prices, maybe what they actually mean is that 'things are slowing down and we're cutting loss making routes early.'

Another interesting thing is that i know a head of a mortgage sales company that 'hasn't sold a single mortgage in 3 weeks' and seen half their colleagues laid off in the past month. I wonder if they'll spend there redundancy on a weekend away in europe with the crap exchange rate- i think not!

What slowdown eh, McDonalds here i come!

Wee Weasley Welshman

15th Apr 2008, 10:09

Given the near impossibility of making pilots redundant and the very low turnover rate that would occur in a recession I suspect all airlines will be desperate NOT to be overcrewed. Perhaps this will be good news for the contracting agencies in the coming months.

Parc and the like certainly seem to have no shortage of work for people.

WWW

Grass strip basher

15th Apr 2008, 11:54

This will not doubt lead to more lay-offs over the other side of the pond....

Delta buys Northwest to create world's biggest airline
By James Quinn, Wall Street Correspondent
Last Updated: 8:03am BST 15/04/2008

Delta Air Lines has agreed to buy rival Northwest Airlines in a $3.6bn deal that will create the world's largest airline and is likely to trigger a wave of consolidation across the industry.

Delta and Northwest have confirmed merger
Following months of talks, Delta and Northwest have confirmed their merger plans, that will be structured as a takeover of Northwest by Delta but will value both airlines at around $3bn each.

The pair were close to announcing their merger back in February, but that plan was derailed following disagreements between Delta and its all-powerful pilots over the future seniority of pilots post-merger.

nich-av

15th Apr 2008, 12:58

UA and CO will probably merge very soon as well.

Don't worry there's enough jobs in the U.S.

Dayjet is hiring 5 to 10 pilots per month likely to increase to 30-40 per month by year-end when Eclipse starts to ramp-up their production.
They pay quite good salaries:

http://airlinepilotcentral.com/airlines/fractional/dayjet.html

G-SPOTs Lost

15th Apr 2008, 16:47

nich av - hardly inspiring.

If you expect people on here to be inspired that dayjet are hiring on the EA500 then perhaps it might be worth a rethink.

EA's days are numbered without major financial restructuring, the premiums for that aircraft are now nearly nil and have transferred to mustang, probably because they are flown with a basic wing leveller/ heading bug autopilot and it will be "some time" beofre thay get approved for flight into known icing.

It will also be "some time" before EASA certification

"cos its crap" (My quote) :E

Wannabees do just enough training to get you to the point where by you have an instructors rating, get some p1 time (albeit in a single - common sense does not have a multi rating!) and when things even sniff of picking up do a multi IR and be 12-18months nearer the command course than your pears when the jet jobs reappear.

Less debt, less frustration, more skilled, more hours, more sense

mustflywillfly

15th Apr 2008, 18:05

Fellow trainees please do not do an instructor rating. That's my plan. All mine I tell you......

Dear God, the groundschool revision has turned my brain to mush.......... now where was I. Oh yes Portsmouth. Wibble.

Wee Weasley Welshman

15th Apr 2008, 20:48

Halifax, Britain's biggest mortgage lender, has raised rated for the second time this month as the crisis in the credit markets grips the wider economy.

The lender plans to hike the rates by as much as 0.5% from tomorrow.

Holy Hell. Talk about pouring petrol on a house fire! Half a percent hike in mortgages just sneaked out in an after business hours statement.

I can just hear the summer holiday budget evaporating...

WWW

Grass strip basher

16th Apr 2008, 05:51

And thats after they met the PM in the morning who asked them to lower rates.... but instead they still put them up!

Tough times ahead for the mortgage market although this must increase the chances of a bail-out as the government must be sh*tting themselves

Jonty

16th Apr 2008, 08:39

Qantas is shifting much of their work to Jet *. Qantaslink are parking aeroplanes because of a lack of suitable pilots. Well, a lack of suitable pilots who'll work for the money offered.

The lean airlines will survive but the inflexible, top heavy airlines will probably topple. The niche players may be vulnerable unless they can adapt to the changing market.

Pretty much like students considering flight training. Be flexible, keep an eye on the market both financial and the airline industry. Consider your own case, risks/benefits, your own financial position and make an informed decision about whether modular or integrated is best for you. (read financial papers, they're the ones most likely to tell the truth versus sensationalist tabloids)

My personal opinion is to go modular if you are already gainfully employed. Do your training part time or in blocks while continuing to save money. The people least likely to get a job during a recession/slow down is the low houred pilot. Read Flight International etc and as the financial market shows signs of bottoming, do your IR so it's all nice and fresh for interviews. (Your scan is the first thing to go if you're not using it.. guess what's looked at closely during a sim check.)

If you're lucky enough to get onto a cadet scheme that offers a firm job offer at the end, then consider that. Other wise, I wouldn't be spending a heap of cash on a full time course right now.

NJE are still expanding and growing. Admittedly our growth appears to have slowed to 15% per annum instead of +25%.

Thats the most sensible thing I have read on this thread.

For those that haven't been around as long as myself and a few others WWW has been a profit of doom ever since he started coming to these hallowed forums.

Here is one of his from 2003. Sound familiar? Just at the time when FR and EZY were going nuts with new orders.

I couldn't advise anybody to enter serious training right now.

Do your PPL sure. Maybe start the ATPL exams via distance learning and build some hours. But that would be about it.

Things are already bad. They are going to get worse if Ryanair really do lay off Buzz flightcrew. We are going to war and the economy is very shaky.

There are thousands looking for flying jobs right now and many many of them are highly competent and ideal candidates. To pitch yourself in the pool against them is to be very very optomistic.

Sometimes the conditions are such that no matter how well you do and how good you are you stand no chance of getting a job. Those conditions are now upon us.

There could be a major airline failure in the UK in the next six months. I would not leave a job or commit to expensive time bounded training against that backdrop.

Mores the pity.

WWW

Its interesting if you keep saying the same thing long enough it will eventually happen.

Sorry WWW, but if you don't occasionaly change the record people stop listening.

Last weeks flight had a careers supplement about working in the Middle East, it made very interesting reading. Emirates need 1000 pilots over the next 3 years, Etihad need about 200. These pilots will come from all over the globe, some will come from established airlines here in the UK. TUI-fly, TCX, EZY and FR to name but a few. Which in turn moves the pilot pool along. A quick flick through this weeks Flight shows 12 adverts for pilots, ranging from flight instructors through to BA.

However, while the pilot job market will continue to move here in the UK we do face problems, oil price, Euro exchange rate are two, the Dollar rate has insulated us from the worst of the oil price rises but if this slips substantially then a lot of airlines are in trouble. And if a big one goes bust, all bets are off.

My personal advice is to try to arrange training so your not graduating this year, if that's not possible then have a backup plan to keep yourself current.

While I don't want to get into an argument over the British economy, I think we are in allot better shape, long term, than the headlines would have us believe.

mattkcraven

16th Apr 2008, 08:51

Indeed Jonty, unfortunately only the bad news makes the headlines.

Uk unemployment has fallen by 39,000 (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7350042.stm)

Now if that had been an increase all hell might have very well broken out, instead a small article on the bbc news page is all. That said, theres no doubt a slow down is upon us/beckoning, and by simply keeping a back-up plan and a close eye on how the economy is evolving is probably the best two pieces of advice in this thread.

(edited to add an UN to make sense, WWW)

nich-av

16th Apr 2008, 10:31

Quote:
I couldn't advise anybody to enter serious training right now.

Do your PPL sure. Maybe start the ATPL exams via distance learning and build some hours. But that would be about it.

Things are already bad. They are going to get worse if Ryanair really do lay off Buzz flightcrew. We are going to war and the economy is very shaky.

There are thousands looking for flying jobs right now and many many of them are highly competent and ideal candidates. To pitch yourself in the pool against them is to be very very optomistic.

Sometimes the conditions are such that no matter how well you do and how good you are you stand no chance of getting a job. Those conditions are now upon us.

There could be a major airline failure in the UK in the next six months. I would not leave a job or commit to expensive time bounded training against that backdrop.

Mores the pity.

WWW
Its interesting if you keep saying the same thing long enough it will eventually happen.

Ouch that hurts.

Last weeks flight had a careers supplement about working in the Middle East, it made very interesting reading. Emirates need 1000 pilots over the next 3 years, Etihad need about 200. These pilots will come from all over the globe, some will come from established airlines here in the UK. TUI-fly, TCX, EZY and FR to name but a few. Which in turn moves the pilot pool along. A quick flick through this weeks Flight shows 12 adverts for pilots, ranging from flight instructors through to BA.

I hope you don't work for a flight school, otherwise you're gonna endure the dozens of pages long "you're biased" **** from 3 or 4 members on here. :ok:

Lost in Cloud

16th Apr 2008, 10:34

There maybe a slowdown upon us but the airline industry will survive. Have a read of this in The Times, Turbo-Prop the way forward?

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article3745007.ece

potkettleblack

16th Apr 2008, 10:36

Whilst the requirements for pilots from the likes of Emirates and Gulf Air et al all sounds like good news, generally their requirements are 4,000 hours of jet time. Traditionally you would have said that when the big boys are recruiting then that is good news for those further down the food chain. That has certainly been the case when BA have been recruiting historically as it meant jobs at Flybe etc have been freed up and they have been forced to lower their entry requirements to man the fleet. BUT I suspect that there will be blood on the floor with the continuing increase in fuel prices pushing some of the marginal niche routes and operators to the wall.

The first thing that happens in a recession is that people stop going on holidays. That then impacts on the charter and loco carriers first. There are already carriers only offering summer contracts to experienced crews and unpaid leave during the off season. Then business travelers decide to conduct meetings via tele conferences and seek major discounts from their travel providers.

The end result is you end up with a bunch of experienced guys looking for work. They have bills to pay just like anyone and beggers can't be choosers so they could well take the jobs that might have been for the ab-initio pilot when times were previously tough for the recruiters.

Add into the mix the fact that a certain loud mouthed CEO of a loco has a war chest of some 1bn quid to play with and you might just see quite a few of the smaller players no longer around. When times are tough you can always look forward to a 1m seat sale which might just tip others over the edge. Also what will come of Alitalia? 99.9% of mergers lead to cost cutting including job cuts so expect a flood of experienced CV's to be hitting HR desks across Europe. And that is without even considering a BMI/Virgin merger. There are reports that the start ups in the former Eastern Bloc are facing tough times. These typically took on ab-initio and self type funded bods. Many of these people will now have the hallowed 500hrs on type and probably an ATPL as well and could well be seeking to move back to the motherland.

Tread carefully and try to minimise your risk. Certainly don't be popping off to the bank and raising 100k on the basis of some marketing hype from the usual suspects.

Grass strip basher

16th Apr 2008, 16:02

The picture that is emerging here is just one of balance....

At one end you have Nich Av who believes that the aviation job market is going to expand rapidly in the next 12 months (due to a range of reasons i.e. a growing number of private jets, Middle east, asia) and at the other WWW who thinks the UK is going into a huge recession and we are going back to a 2001 type job market.

Personally from where I sit the truth is in the middle but certainly closer to WWW than Nich Av.

Nich Av you clearly feel offended by what some people have said about your comments. Whilst I make no apology from my side for having a different view to you and thinking some of your comments are frankly miss-informed (oil price hasn't gone up in real terms??) I respect you have a right to your view even if it seem pretty fanciful sat where I am when 1,000s of people that were filling business class seats for the past 5 years are losing their jobs.

The real value in this thread seems to be it is keeping wanabees up to speed with how quickly the finance (where you get your loan from) and job markets are changing which have to be THE most important things for a wanabee.

Wee Weasley Welshman

16th Apr 2008, 16:20

Jonty - I'll happily stand by that posting of mine in 2003.

We were just about to enter GW2, it did look like MyTravel might go bust, we were only 18 months from Sept11th and there were a lot of ex-Sabena and Swiss and other experienced pilots looking for work. Doing the PPL, some Groundschool and some hours wasn't a bad plan and it isn't now. No need to rush into an Integrated course or Multi IR or CPL when the wx radar is painting so much magenta.

For those that haven't been around as long as myself and a few others WWW has been a profit of doom ever since he started coming to these hallowed forums.

Not withstanding that I've always been here since this forum was switched on I refute that I have only one record and that its always doom. I've acknowledged many times in 2005 and 2006 that we were firmly in Boom territory and that jobs were aplenty.

* * * * * *

If I might point you to another posting I made in 2003 on this forum on 5th May:

http://www.pprune.org/forums/showpost.php?p=484859&postcount=14

Firstly, on a personal note, well done Luke - glad to see things worked out for you...

I am certain that things will really pick up in two years time - aviation is going to go the same way as it is in the US and that means 20% sustained growth for the next decade to reach US like levels. Just wait until there is an easyJet France, and Ryanair Germany and - sadly - no longer a Go-Fly Spain operating at the same levels as in the UK... Business travellers are demanding frequency in smaller aircraft - that still need 2 pilots.

Long Haul is looking good as well. The internet is making freight be shipped half way accross the world to a consumer who wants it delivered in 24hrs. Huge business markets in Latin America and China are barely yet exploited. Long haul leisure travel is the preserve of the very rich Western countries at the moment. But boy is that going to change as super jumbos and deregulation drive down prices and Westernisation provides both the money and the cultural influences to make people from India holiday in Florida or people in Brazil take a week in London.

Every airport in europe is festooned with cranes and bulldozers. A lot of pilots who entered the profession in the last boom - the 1970's package holiday - are now in their 50's.

This is a growth industry and make no mistake about it.

However. Spending the next 2 years servicing a massive debt whilst eeking out a few single engine hours for badger all money is going to be pretty damn miserable. I feel for all the people in that position I really do.

* * * * * * * *

And do you know what Jonty? I was pretty much right.

2003 and 2004 were pants for Wannabes. By 2005 things were ticking along nicely and 2006/7 were boom years. I've a long history here of commenting on the industry and the impact events in it will have on Wannabes.

I may err on the side of blackness A LITTLE but then that's because there is a whole industry out there arguing things are always sunny plus Wannabes have a natural enthusiasm to get on with their training and new career dream.

Just as in 2002 and 2003 if you could sit out 2008 & 2009 without watching your ratings lapse and your loan charges mount then that would be A Good Thing. I was trying to warn about this crisis from August last year but until its on the nine o' clock news people don't really believe you and won't listen anyway.

WWW

Artie Fufkin

16th Apr 2008, 18:39

Last weeks flight had a careers supplement about working in the Middle East, it made very interesting reading. Emirates need 1000 pilots over the next 3 years, Etihad need about 200. These pilots will come from all over the globe, some will come from established airlines here in the UK. TUI-fly, TCX, EZY and FR to name but a few. Which in turn moves the pilot pool alongDid you see the article in Flight recently saying that market analysts are deeply worried about the unrealistic expansion going on in the middle east at the moment, and making predictions of mass airframe order cancellations as this sinks in? Something to do with the Middle Eastern airlines double counting their pax forecasts.

Just a thought.

G SXTY

16th Apr 2008, 18:45

As someone who started training just before 9/11, I have read this thread with interest. I would echo the advice that this is a risky time to commit to integrated training, even assuming that finance is still available. And it's not just about money; people often overlook the fact that an integrated course ties you to a fixed schedule - you will be finishing in xx months, whatever the state of the job market. Just ask a good friend of mine who signed on the dotted line at Jerez (BAe Systems as it was then) in August 2001 . . .

If I learned anything from watching the bottom fall out of the market post 9/11, it is that modular training gives one much - much - greater flexibility. There is the option to work while flying part-time, paying for your training as you go, and at any time you can accelerate or delay your schedule according to market conditions. My only full-time training was the CPL/IR, which meant I had a licence in my hand just four months after leaving my day job. Last year I was willing to bet that the market would hold for that long, and the gamble paid off - I was very fortunate to get an airline job within 3 months of finishing training.

Would I take that same risk now? Probably not.
Would I commit to an integrated course now and bet that there will be lots of jobs for newbies in 18 months time? Definitely not.
Would I be trying to raise £70k (no doubt with someone's house as security) in the current economic climate? I'd need my head examined.

Having been around Pprune almost as long as WWW I'd agree that he tends to be more pessimistic than most, but I think his advice is pretty good here.

Wee Weasley Welshman

16th Apr 2008, 20:03

Thanks for that G SXTY - people's personal histories always make compelling reading.

Whilst my analysis for the economic conditions ahead is very gloomy I've never said anywhere on this thread that people should abandon any thoughts of training, give up and desert their dreams. Never have a I said that.

We certainly have windshear ahead, brief and plan accordingly.

WWW

redsnail

16th Apr 2008, 21:24

Abbreviated summary.

1987. Start learning to fly in Australia part time. Industry is booming. Get talked into going commercial.

1988. Finish PPL. Start all the CPL exams.

1989. Start IR. The worst industrial disaster hit Australia. Known as the "pilots dispute". Only the international pilots were flying, aka Qantas. The domestic flying? Stopped.

1990-91. Recession hits Australia. It already had been around the world since 1989 or so. Get CPL (1991). Keep my full time job and wait.

1992. Do instructor rating part time.

1993. Got part time instructing job as well as keeping safe full time job. Do ATPLs part time. Economy is picking up.

1994. Leave job and home, head off to the Kimberley to get a job. Finally got a full time job flying a Cessna mid year.

1995. Head back to Sydney and finish ATPL theory. yay.

1996. Change jobs. Get twin hours. Shift to another part of the Kimberley.

1997. Joined PPRuNe.

1998. Crashed and burned first type rating. Fortunately networking worked and managed to land another job in Cairns. FO on turboprops.

2000. Shifted to Sydney for another (bigger) turboprop (FO) job. That didn't go well either.

early 2001. Shift to the UK. Airlines hiring. However, signs were there in the US, it wasn't going well. Doing ATPL JAA exams full time.

Had 5,100 hours with at least 1,000 hours on turboprops.

Sept 11, 2001.

2002. Decide to stay in the UK, with Ansett group collapsing in Australia, there was absolutely no chance getting a job.
Get ATPL (finally). Take any job I could. Night Ops assistant with "Streamline"

2003. Fly a Shorts 330/360 on night freight. That was the best I could get at the time.

Dec 2004. Finally get into NJE.
Economy finally accelerating.

2005. Naturally, after starting with NJE, get offers from other companies.

2007. Command. Sub Prime grumblings in the US get louder.

2008. Possible fleet change coming up.
Economy is appearing to slow down again. Make sure my seniority is safe.

Adios

16th Apr 2008, 21:48

I've watched this thread for a while with interest and wonder why so many think one's approach to training has so much to do with the economy. Let me explain that a bit.

The logic seems to be that the economy is worsening, so there will be fewer jobs, so wannabes should wait until it is better to increase the chance that they'll get one. It's not bad reasoning, but there is a flaw in this logic when in a good job market. Even in a booming market if there is only a 10% chance that one won't get a job easily, the wise wannabe will develop a plan to get him through even if he's in that 10%.

I do think it's wise to try to time the market well and this is clearly a volatile and uncertain time. Here are the guidelines I would suggest should be used regardless of whether it's a boom or a bust economy:

1. Use as little debt as possible
2. Raise as much of the money needed upfront as humanly possible so you can focus on continuity of training to avoid fading skills. One sensible exception would be if you are modular and take a break before the IR and MCC to wait for an economic upturn.
3. Make sure you can meet all financial obligations and future contingencies (funding an SSTR or FI rating for example) based on what you are capable of earning today.
4. Contingency budget planning ideally should cover a) living expenses, b) loan repayments, c) rating renewals, d) 50 hours flying per year for currency and e) enough to make the payment on an additional loan for an SSTR.

If you can't fund an SSTR or you or unwilling to because of principles, then the other contingency items become even more important because your wait might be even longer.

It goes without saying that c and d are taken care of if you become an FI, but doing so adds the contingency requirement of funding the FI course. FIs are less likely in the early years to be able to afford a, b and e though, so the admonition of using less debt is more important if FI is your contingency plan from the outset.

The most obvious way to reduce the debt load is to reduce the total cost by going modular. There is a hidden saving here for those with an FI contingency. Modular fATPL training almost always ends the wannabe up with 250 hours or more. Integrated fATPL courses often end the wannabe up with about 220-230 hours, so they need to fund hour building to 250 hours before they can start an FI course.

There is a flaw in using an FI rating as a contingency in a bust economy though in that there might be plenty of recently redundant airline pilots beating a path to the FTOs to instruct, while those very FTOs experience a drop off in business.

In summary, investing in flight training is always risky and the risk management techniques to be used have very little to do with the state of the economy. The state of the economy should therefore primarily only inform when you start or if going modular, when you finish. Poor contingency planning in boom times probably accounts for at least half of the whinging posts on Pprune from unemployed shiny new fATPL holders.

mad_jock

16th Apr 2008, 21:49

As one of the wannbies from that time I can remember the debates going on.

In fact alot off the vocal ones for mod in them days are to my knowledge all sitting in the LHS earning 40k plus on turboprops or LHS on regional jets or the likes of Luke have moved on from LHS to RHS wide bodies. With 2+ type ratings under their belts.

In fact quiet few of the posters from that time are line training captains and one is a TRE that I know about.

I say that but one of them can still be found in MAN working as a dispatcher. His big break was scuppered by another ppruner who he called a cock and got into a willy waving competion with. He proberly doesn't even know his CV was binned.

In my experence WWW does talk sense about this stuff. There have been alot of wannabies who have appeared some with professional qualifications in finance, told him that he is talking pish and have quite well written justifications why he is talking pish. But you see aviation is a law until its self some might call it insider dealing but you can't have a clue whats going on until you have lived with it for a bit and realised how things work.

Why WWW hasn't got fed up giving his opinion I don't know. Every 6 months a new batch of wannabies turn up who think they know better because some marketing deptment have sold them hook line and sinker. And the trend for everyone to dismiss the other forms of aviation apart from line flying a Jet is causing major problems in the industry. There are alot of jobs out there that are just not suited to the Oxford/Cabair product. Employers won't touch them with a barge pole. I fact in the last 3 years I havn't flown with a single Intergrated trained pilot to my knowledge.

Just to note intergrated pilots don't need the 200 hours to start the fi course and they graduate with as little as 170 hours. In a broad sweeping statement they generally don't make very good FI's as they don't know the system and there heart isn't in it; also they are used to being bottle fed all the time with very little PIC real unsupervised time. This is a broad statement which can be proved untrue by some exceptionally good Instructors who did go through the intergrated system but they are the exceptions. In fact they are the sort of people who would have floated to the top however they did thier training.

hollywood285

16th Apr 2008, 22:48

Oil prices now $115 a barrel, watch this space guys..............

nich-av

16th Apr 2008, 23:35

...and Euro at 1.6 bucks.

Didn't Qantas start Jetstar in 2003 while you were flying the ugliest aircraft in the history of aviation (including the age of the Ornithopters).

Wouldn't that been a better solution?

Re-Heat

17th Apr 2008, 17:39

On a wing and a prayer
Published: April 17 2008 14:38 | Last updated: April 17 2008 18:06

When you have tried pulling every lever to hand but your plane is still losing altitude, the only thing left to do is bail out. This should have been a banner week for airline stocks. Delta and Northwest finally agreed to merge. That paves the way for further consolidation.

Investors, many of whom have called for any sort of corporate action to catalyse a rally, are unmoved – the sector is down 4 per cent this week. It is telling that, having touted $1bn of annual synergies, Northwest and Delta have since seen their combined market value decline by roughly the same amount. The need to keep politicians and labour onside means airlines must focus on revenue synergies, rather than cost savings. Top line gains might well transpire, but they are far off and run a high risk of being competed away.

With mergers no longer looking like a silver bullet, the fundamental problems facing the sector loom larger. As quarterly results from AMR – American Airlines’ parent – Continental, and Southwest show, this industry is selling its product too cheaply to offset high fuel prices. Only Southwest managed to turn a profit, mainly because of smart hedges on fuel costs.

Unit revenues for the major airlines are growing at mid-single digits in percentage terms. But they need growth rates at double that level to offset the high cost of fuel, according to CreditSights. With seats already very full – and regulators capping flights at busy airports such as JFK – that means raising prices. The airlines are doing this, but cautiously. Charging more in what could be an economic downturn is a bold experiment. Demand has remained robust so far, but then passengers’ appetite typically cracks only after a couple of recessionary quarters have passed.

Unlike the downturn after 2001, the industry has a bigger cash cushion. In an ideal world, that would be used to address other needs, such as upgrading tired fleets. Instead, the airlines will use it to hunker down and survive a rough ride – not exactly the most enticing of investment propositions.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008

barké

17th Apr 2008, 17:56

well i hope staying low at uni will get me through the turbulent economic times ahead :uhoh:

redsnail

17th Apr 2008, 18:29

N.A, A better solution? To what? I'd already left Australia and had converted my license. To then return to Australia and buy a type rating wasn't a solution. Esp since I had no money left and wasn't going into debt for a job.
I now earn a lot more money than the Jetstar pilots.

QF had already experimented with Australia Airlines operating 767s to Japan etc. This hasn't worked as well as they wanted. Jetstar Asia isn't a roaring success either. Jetstar (Aus) isn't working as well as they (QF) wanted on the Japanese routes as the Japanese don't want to use a loco to Australia. They perceive locos to be inferior. I can assure you that if I booked a ticket thinking it was going to be operated by QF and it was operated by Jetstar I would not be impressed one bit.

Either way, what Qantas does is their own business. However, they do seem to be intent on driving Qantaslink to the wall by refusing to acknowledge that their pilots want a better life. Their (QFs) opposition has responded by offering the QFlink crews the lifestyle and remuneration they want and deserve for the work being done.

saccade

17th Apr 2008, 19:45

Oil prices now $115 a barrel, watch this space guys..............

It is all very simple. Demand is rising and supply seems to be stagnant.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=aScKsMlWs0Fc&refer=energy

"There is only 85 million barrels of oil globally in the market coming a day and I don't think you can increase that 85 million,'' Pickens said.

XL5

19th Apr 2008, 05:27

This maybe of interest.

NYTimes.com: For Pilots, Dreams Run Into Reality.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/10/business/10pilots.html?_r=1&ex=1208491200&en=d7f6b36136fd01a2&ei=5070&emc=eta1&oref=slogin

Since 911 the airline industry in America has been in a fighting retreat which now, because of an economy built on debt and unforeseen oil prices, has turned into an all-out rout.

It's one thing to sacrifice and struggle for a few years to attain employment with a major carrier, something else however to sacrifice but never see light at the end of the tunnel. ‏I don't recall there being less opportunity for a viable aviation career than at present.

mustflywillfly

19th Apr 2008, 09:52

Always wanted to be a pilot. Check
32 years old. Check
Has a son. Check
Been saving from his military salary for the last year. Check
Will probably take him 10 years to get back to the same salary. Check
Wife thinks he's nuts. Check
Navy Lieutenant. Check

Christ. The above article is a little bit too close for comfort!! Thank goodness I am only on a career break to try and make the dream a reality!!

Anyway back to the revision, consolidation course starts next week and I just did an Air Law mock. Creamed 68%. Bolloc%s. Hmmmm maybe I should re-train as a plumber and buy a Pitts with the money I've saved.....

nich-av

19th Apr 2008, 13:28

I'd like to bring some political background to this story because it is to me the sole essence of the actual recession with people high in the food chain using the media to fuel rumours... which, I say again is all this recession is really about.

Don't worry people, the democrats are winning end of the year and the war will be over... 1100 billion bucks went literally "lost" in Defense last year, and the feds are blaiming outdated computer systems for vanished money...
The people presiding now are stacking as much money as they can buying stocks at bottom prices, etc. using this money.

Just read about the JFKs and 9/11 conspiracy and you'll know what I'm talking about.

and this article: http://nl.m24.be/nieuws/buitenland/Pentagon__verliest__1.100_miljard.6846368-1621.art

It's in Dutch but since CNN is very unlikely to be allowed to post such articles by Washington,...

So what's 1100 billion worth?
4000 A380's or 30000 A320's at list price? I'm sure Airbus will give you a quantity discount for such an order... or you could buy EADS altogether and use the spare change to buy all the airlines in the world.

Half of the US taxpayer's money goes to Defense funding.

Let's all together hope for a better future in the economy and in the politics that drives it.

Adios

19th Apr 2008, 20:23

Nich-av,

It seems you may be onto something there. Maybe some of us can use the info you have provided to make a killing in the markets. I'd love to buy a NetJets share; I'm sick of waiting in BAA's long security queues. There are probably many other readers who would love to fund their flight training with a few hot tips. Where could I put £100K to quickly turn it into £200K? If I can turn it over a few times in quick succession, I should have enough for a Citation Bravo share in a year or so and the guys in Ferrovial can kiss my rosy red goodbye one last time.

Wee Weasley Welshman

20th Apr 2008, 08:42

Nich - Av, if you want to gain some insight into the world and its present economic issues might I suggest avoiding the more conspiracy based areas of the Net and instead try googling Money As Debt. Within an hour you will probably have passed beyond the looking glass and gone far down the rabbit hole...

ALL we are really talking about in relation to UK and EU and US airlines is a slowing down of consumer spending.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/apr/20/economics.consumerspending?gusrc=rss&feed=business

Its as mainstream as being in the guardian:

UK consumers face 'rapid and painful' downturn

This is going to be a rapid, painful adjustment and it will be a rough ride for a substantial proportion of the population. We are facing a massive sea change in the balance of the economy,' he said.

You look at the airline business. You see its wafer thing margins. You note it rapid decade of expansion.

You plan accordingly.

WWW

Grass strip basher

20th Apr 2008, 10:44

Interesting thread on "terms and endearment" saying Thomsonfly binning 10 aircraft for this season which could be well over 100 trained and experienced crew back on the market.... also EOS scrabbling around to find another £50mn to avoid a "run on the airline" as passengers book elsewhere as they lose confidence that the group will be around in a few months time.

I find the concept of the US bailing us out an interesting one given the US is arguably already in recession and running a huge deficit.. .I would have thought there was a bigger risk of US politics becoming more protectionist given the issues the US economy (and airlines have at the moment).

As for closer to home RBS looking to raise £10bn to plug a hole in its balance sheet. Banks are still struggling to lend... .folks the evidence is building that a low cost, low risk approach to flight training has to be the way forward.

I am also curious by this idea that "private jets" are the way forward and will create thousands of pilot jobs.... if people can't afford to fly with BA they are hardly going to be hiring private jets? And with the credit crunch ongoing I imagine banks willingness to lend against such assets must be somewhat diminished as would companies willingness to buy them..... or am I missing something? :confused:

redsnail

20th Apr 2008, 12:10

GSB,

Most of our owners aren't affected by this little glitch.... Also, if you owned a jet, you could sell it and buy a share or card. Once you've done flying in your own aircraft, you're very reluctant to go back to the airlines.

Also, Europeans are viewing the bizjet not as a luxury item, but as an important business tool. 2 hours versus 10 min to get on your aircraft. Your meeting runs late, now instead of stopping the meeting OR flying home the next day, you make a call and your aircraft waits for you.

Will the bizjet market create thousands of jobs? No idea. Will it continue to grow. Yes, maybe a bit slower than in the last couple of years but it's still expanding.

Grass strip basher

20th Apr 2008, 13:01

Thanks Redsnail

Just our of interest how many of your "customers" would you guess are involved/make their money in the world of finance (e.g. banks, hedge funds, insurance companies etc etc)?

nich-av

20th Apr 2008, 13:46

Thanks for deleting that WWW, on second thoughts I think it was too straight indeed. But let's be careful with investments right now :ok:

redsnail

20th Apr 2008, 14:49

GSB,

Our owners aren't customers. There's a few that do make their money in the areas that you describe, but there are many that make their money from other sources. Also, many of our owners are from Europe so they (at the moment) appear to be less affected by the current events affecting the Pound and the Dollar. :ok:

Grass strip basher

20th Apr 2008, 15:07

I would guess many here would be very interested to hear if you see/feel any fall off in demand over the next few months from your clients. Please keep us informed as it is very valuable information for wanabees :ok:

Wee Weasley Welshman

20th Apr 2008, 15:49

The coming crisis will affect all sectors of aviation. I expect fractional jet business to be the least affected. The margins are meaty, the USP is strong and the customers on the whole are sold on the product and money ain't a problem, more a concept.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and ask you all (Wannabes) to read something.

Its by Paul Krugman and its 5 months out of date at this point but its STILL the best summary of the present economic problem that I've read in a digestible 1,000 words:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/14/opinion/14krugman.html?_r=3&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

It was in the New York Times. Because the UK is a little (9 months) behind the US I think its an excellent summary of where we are now in the UK. I appreciate we have a wider audience - my apologies to them for being parochial.

As a Wannabe you NEED to grasp that this time there will be a recession and that a recession will hurt the massively expanded industry of commercial aviation very hard. Many of you aspire to a job such as mine as a Captain with a large UK airline. I don't blame you - I aspired to it like hell - and love it to bits.

But In No Small Part it is dependent on the spending of people in the economy who will be - frankly - wiped out in the 'economic turbulence' of 2008 - 2009..

Hang back from betting the farm. That's all I am saying.

WWW

Irish_Stu

20th Apr 2008, 20:02

That article does ring a few bells regarding the current situation. Don't know what it's like on the mainland, but driving around in N.Ireland recently I haven't seen a single "sold" sign on any houses. Loads of "for sale" signs though.

Still amazes me to meet young chappies at my local flying club who are off to start integrated courses in the next few months.

neilcharlton

20th Apr 2008, 20:20

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=560443&in_page_id=1770

Holiday bookings down already.
I doubt business aviation will escape scott free i imagine a large amount of private jet clients are city boys. dont think you'll be taking a citation if your firm has just lost 2billion $.

so many of my friends are worried about their jobs at the momment , especially the guys at citi bank. i think its something like 20% of the UK GDP comes from the city.

Philpaz

23rd Apr 2008, 17:09

I think a lot of the european holidays are suffering because of the pound-euro exchange. I've recently returned from the canaries and it was very, very quiet.

Wee Weasley Welshman

23rd Apr 2008, 21:19

This guy doesn't mince his words:

TOULOUSE, France, April 23 (Reuters) - Oil prices well above $100 a barrel will drive most of Europe's low-cost airlines out of business, the head of EasyJet's French subsidiary said on Wednesday.

The stark warning of a cull of low-cost airlines came as the British budget airline's shares fell more than 4 percent after another spike higher in oil prices towards $120 a barrel.

"There are currently about 50 low-cost carriers on the European market -- that's absurd," Francois Bacchetta, managing director of EasyJet France, told a news conference.

In a few years' time there will be no more than about three or four of us left in Europe," he said.

He was speaking at a briefing about a new EasyJet service between Toulouse and Lyon.

Traditional network carriers like Air France KLM have slapped extra fuel surcharges on ticket prices in recent months to help compensate for soaring crude oil prices.

"If we ourselves passed on these increases completely we would have to raise ticket prices by 10 percent in one go and our payload factor (the proportion of seats sold) would fall from 85 percent to 60 percent. Our whole low-cost business model would be thrown into question," Bacchetta said.

"The most competitive companies like Ryanair or ourselves will survive, along with one in Germany and perhaps one more in Europe. The others will die or merge as cripples. This phenomenon will even touch so-called normal carriers."

EasyJet issued a profit warning last month, citing higher fuel costs.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSL2332471920080423

WWW

A and C

24th Apr 2008, 08:39

You don't let up on your doom & gloom trip do you!

What is becoming clear is that the economic situation will result in a downturn in seats sold however it is likely to be the weekend break that the British public drops not the two week family hoiliday.

This is why the likes of Ryanair and Easyjet are panicking, the waffer thin margins they run on are likely to be erroded very quickly, the more traditional tour operators who sell the package hoildays are likely to be less hard hit as the British would rather sell there granny than miss out on the annual two weeks in the sun.

I was rather hoping that this thread was slipping off the radar as it seems to be the depositry for all the bad news can be found, however the back pages of Flight seem to be crammed with jobs a fact the at WWW seems to not have taken into account............... but good news seems not to have the same impact.

Wee Weasley Welshman

24th Apr 2008, 09:04

This thread does cover the most important Wannabe issue today - the recession and it impact on airline hiring.

There are no more than 500 jobs in the back of Flight. Any one of the top ten UK airlines going under would release that number of qualified, experienced and immediately available.

Do you refuse to see that the large US carriers are once again in dire trouble and facing Ch11? Does that not point to you the way Europe will be by next year?

Today you have the UK biggest homebuilder Persimmon suspending building any houses.. You have mortgage lending for March 08 down 46% on March 07. Last year the good old British consumer 'released' around £14billion from their residential property.

Every man Jack of them then spent that money on something. For a good many it was cars and holidays and 52 inch goggle boxes. ALL that money, all that £14billion just isn't going to happen this year. As consumer spending no accounts for over 60% of the UK economy it doesn't take a genius to spot the recession in the room.

Normally the goverment would now ramp up state spending, build a few motorways, airports, replace the power generation system etc. Unfortunately the government is almost as badly in debt as the consumer and thus we have the teachers on strike as a taster for a winter of discontent. Eggs, Milk, Bread etc all up by 40%+ and you in the State sector only allowed a 1.9% pay rise..

At first they said the boom would continue, then that a slowdown was possible, then happening and now they say that a recession can be avoided. It can't.

Wannabes taking on huge debt in the hope of hard to get jobs in an industry cruelly exposed to recessionary contraction NEED to be aware and to have considered the risk properly. I merely point out some of the evidence as it occurs - which is daily. People will do what they want and there is no slow down in the application rate at Kiddlington or Bedford (though I suspect the Euro must be hurting FTE).

WWW

saccade

24th Apr 2008, 09:32

What is becoming clear is that the economic situation will result in a downturn in seats sold

A and C , the article was about the fact that if easyjet would increase fares with 10% because of higher fuel costs, the loadfactor would drop from 85 to 60 percent. Not a word about the economy.

The same seem to apply in the US, all the bankruptcies and capacity reductions are not caused by the economic downturn:

"Demand for travel typically falls after a recession has started. To date, airlines have not seen a significant decline in demand."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/business/23air.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin

The difference between a downturn imposed by energy prices instead of economic weakness is in my view the fact that it is for the long term without a solution in sight.

Okay, now it's time for good news :)

dxbpilot

24th Apr 2008, 13:55

The sky is falling on us ! Global Warming , Food Crisis, lifes never been worse ever. Somebody help us all......

Get a grip guys !

Wodka

24th Apr 2008, 14:13

I blame the Daily Mail.....For everything

moggiee

24th Apr 2008, 14:25

Oil prices now $115 a barrel, watch this space guys..............
Oil price is one thing, £-$ exchange rate is another altogether.

No-one ever points out that in the time that the oil price has gone up 40-50%, the US$ has lost about 40+% in value.

It wasn't so long ago that oil cost $70 per barrel and the £ got you $1.40. However, at $2 per £, a fair chunk of the oil price rise has actually been paid for us by the Americans! In fact, the £ has been worth $2 for a lot longer than the oil price has been high, so we Europeans have had a decent time of it for a while - it's just catching up with us now.

I think that a lot of talk of doom and gloom is a self-fulfilling prophesy - if the suits in the city talk long enough about there being a downturn then they will make it happen. The world financial markets run on rumour and optimism/pessimism - facts rarely enter the equation.

As for training, the FTO at which I work has never been more busy - we are actually at the point of turning customers away.

Wodka

24th Apr 2008, 14:28

except that airlines buy fuel in USD!!

moggiee

24th Apr 2008, 14:30

except that airlines buy fuel in USD!!
Exactly my point. European airlines buy their fuel with US dollars that have in turn been bought with high value Sterling/Euros and so get a good exchange rate! The weak dollar HELPS keep the fuel cost down, and although there has been some increase in real costs, a lot of it is spin.

The fact that the dollar has been weak for a long time now (most of GWB's term as president!) means that the European airlines have been enjoying cheap fuel for a long time.

Wodka

24th Apr 2008, 14:39

Yes true... but it is only one side of the story. Airlines such as BA loose out when converting US passengers paying in dollars back into sterling. The same goes for the likes of easyJet with the european passengers.

Grass strip basher

24th Apr 2008, 17:41

"I blame the Daily Mail.....For everything"..... that is possibly the most sensible thing ever posted on Pprune....:ok:
The oil price has gone from $10 to $120 in 7-8 years.... that must be some currency move :O

Grass strip basher

25th Apr 2008, 06:19

UK press starting to pick up on current problems in US aviation industry....

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article3810477.ece

:uhoh:

A and C

25th Apr 2008, 08:29

As we all know the standard of reporting in the papers on aviation matters is appauling so why should the standard of reporting on financial issues be any different ?
Time to get some opinion from another sorce?............ I think so!!

Last night my wife attended a meeting with the local MP, the guy had untill recently a shadow finance remit and so has worked on these issues for some time.
In his opinion the total financal crash that some in these forums are predicting won't happen. He said that the economic conditions are far better than in the late 70's and so comparison with that recession was not valid.

The meeting was remarkably free from party politics with his general opinion being a bit of a dip in the economy followed by an upturn quite soon.

This is still only the opinion of one MP but due to he recent work in the field would tend to trust it rather more than the opinions of the Daily Mail or the proffits of doom & gloom on this forum.

chrisbl

25th Apr 2008, 09:09

The Times report was a sensible and balanced report and was a fair representation of the situation today.

The fact is that for the general population inflation is running at a far higher level that the official statistics show.

For those on a fixed income the problems are severe; food and fuel costs take a higher proportion of income now than ever and that reduces the amount to sopend elsewhere.

Fixed income people tend to be pensioners and it has been the grey pound which has fueled the growth in travel especially for the low cost carriers.

Tie that in with the fall in value of the £ against the € where the majority of travellers have been going and the money available is even less.

The worst hit will have it bad but for the airline businesses they will need to get ready for a difficult time and I suspect already have their layoff plans ready and waiting.

Wee Weasley Welshman

25th Apr 2008, 09:39

Hmm, an MP saying soothing things about the economy- that's me sold then. The Government versions don't want to be held accountable for the massive asset price bubble they have let inflate over the last decade. Their deregulation of lending gave us a 280% rise in house prices, fueled a feel-good factor that allowed three Labour terms for the first time ever. As that bubble now bursts the Opposition MP's cannot crow too much as nobody wants to vote for a public sector employee jumping up and down telling people that financial ruin lied ahead for them.

I seem to recall stating my belief that UK house prices would collapse in the summer last year. Most said no way. Well now mortgage approvals for house purchase were down by nearly 50% year-on-year in March. The British Bankers’ Association said that the number (35,417) was the lowest since it started records in 1997. Think about that for a minute. Half as many people arranged a mortgage. That means half as many houses were sold (not many do so without a mortgage). Or to put it another way, demand has fallen in half.

You don't need to have studied much economics to know what happens to prices when demand fall in half.

And so it has come to pass.

A great many people in the UK live well beyond their means based on easy credit and house price inflation. With both of these now gone they will default on their debts (the banks needing bailouts) and they will also rapidly draw in their spending horns. This will hit the airlines.

Look how low the savings ratios are in the UK these days, much much worse than the last recession, many people have NO safety net, nothing for a rainy day, no nest egg, no contingency, nothing:

http://www.moneyweek.com/uploaded/images/2404_uk_households_savings_ratio.gif

I don't believe they will be able to fiddle the figures enough to avoid a technical recession. Even if they did it won't matter. Rising costs and lowering confidence are already facts that will guarantee lower loads and lower yields.

There won't be a massive crisis in Wannabeism until and unless an AOC airline goes under and makes its pilots redundant. Then its game over overnight.

WWW

Lurking123

25th Apr 2008, 10:00

WWW, haven't you anywhere else to peddle your pessimism? :{

A and C

25th Apr 2008, 10:45

I,m with Lurking123 on this one, you would not want to do a Sharm with WWW by the time you got back to Gatwick you would be wanting to slash your wrists!

RVR800

25th Apr 2008, 11:10

Unemplyment falling
Interest rates no where near 15% as they were is the last recesion (90s)
Inflation in target
House prices rising in some areas (Scotland) falling in others (Wales) flat in most places
People queuing up in droves to have their cars HAND WASHED at the weekend - that's no recession!

Anyway all this doom and gloom sells papers; one real issue is that its been so cold in recent weeks that the BBC have had to shelve their global warming stories and have had focus on the economy (doom and gloom stories)

"Its been a turbulent day on the exchanges and we have been forced to leave the ERM" (interest rates at 15% thats a real recession) - this is chicken feed

Right Touch

25th Apr 2008, 11:31

However the increase in the price of fuel is very real and is hurting every airline particularly those operating older less fuel efficient machines.

Reducing Plog Fuel , Lower Flap settings for Landings , Single Engine Taxi after landings , all Sop's bought into my Airline recently to save on the Fuel Bill .

The article in the Times is pretty spot on.

ps i fly with WWW , he lets me have first choice on the crew meals , laughs at my jokes and i get a free economics lesson ;)

kj990

25th Apr 2008, 12:13

So, are we at the denial phase now?

saccade

25th Apr 2008, 13:34

Good article from Grass Strip Basher, sums it up nicely.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article3810477.ece

Again a lot of reason to take a very conservative approach to flight training, and also a lot of reason to take the "90% of our students get a job within 6 months" story's with a pinch of salt. This seems to be a thing of the past.

Also my compliments to the 'mainstream media'. Every person embarking training now can be blamed themselves for not having done enough research before their training, if it does turn out to be a mess.

Tamar217

25th Apr 2008, 13:52

I think one thing that isn't mentioned enough in this thread is that flight training is a completely suicidal idea anyway.

Excuse my lack of experience but from what I can see from my training path is that even if times were as good as a few years back I am still spending around £30,000 to become a PPL instructor, maybe earning £10,000 - £11,000 a year! On top of that, because my ATPL will expire without an IR I am pretty much forced after 3 years to spend another £10,000 to get one, then add an MCC which on completion means I can then wait up to a year to get another low paid job, if my training hasn't expired by then.

The point I am trying to make is that anybody spending 50,000 just so they can start sending out the odd CV in the hope of a airline job is nuts, especially if they are taking out huge loans to do so. We know it and anyone we tell our plans too knows it, but we do it anyway! So regardless how bad things get and how much doom and gloom is forecast, I can be sure that myself and everyone else learning on here is going to carry on anyway, because we were all absolutely mad in the first place and a bit of common financial sense isn't going to stop us now.

GordonBrown

25th Apr 2008, 14:18

Dont worry!! I have it on good faith that all will be fine in the coming year (and for the next few years at that!).

Spend your precious pounds on flying because I'm soon to reveal a hidden oilfield that has 50 trillion barrels of that lovely black, silky, delicious wannabe loving liquid! So its on Mars, who cares!!

Haha, today we laugh, tomorrow we fly!!

JB007

25th Apr 2008, 18:02

I'm suprised it's taken 419 posts for someone to do the above - nice one Gordy!:ok:

neilcharlton

25th Apr 2008, 19:14

www.rbs.com/content/economic/downloads/world/pitfalls.pdf (http://www.rbs.com/content/economic/downloads/world/pitfalls.pdf)
Crude is over valued about $30 is speculation and not driven by fundamentals.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/ (http://www.rgemonitor.com/)
Global marco analysis - very good site written by one of the worlds top economists.

I agree that you shouldn’t listen to financial journalists as they generally know nothing, but when you have top economists and top hedge fund managers talking doom and gloom backed up by market figures then i tend to listen ..

I guess we only have to wait 6-12 months and we can see who's been right about the situation.. :-)

I personally will be sending gloating PM's to everyone who's posted the typical arrogant PPRUNE comments ;-)

redsnail

25th Apr 2008, 19:18

Grassy,

Winter and early Spring was a mixed bag. Some days very busy, other days, not so. What probably effected the flying rate was the early Easter and school holidays. I believe it is a bit below expected rates but it is still more than last year.

May should be busy, Cannes Film Festival, Monaco Grand Prix and the soccer championships.

Summer is typically busier than Winter.

Still flying people for day shopping trips. :ok:

Looking to hire probably about 100 pilots this year. (Don't know if that includes cadets)

Remember, there's no recession if you're in a job (and don't have crippling debt). :E

Blindside

25th Apr 2008, 21:57

Just because you don't like the sound of something doesn't mean it is wrong.

It doesn't help that easy access to credit encourages people to spend money, and money they haven't and wouldn't normally have access to. People are far more likely to spend £50k if they do not have to work, scrimp or make sacrifices for it. Maybe, paying it back after you have spent/enjoyed it is far easier to do. You cannot truly appreciate money or the value of it in this current culture.

How can anyone expect the majority of people in their teens/twenties to understand what £50k really is if their parents have given it to them (from equity), or a bank has loaned it to them rather than working and earning it for themselves?

Noone saves anymore, everything is needed now. This is everywhere is society and it is going to go tits up, even if only because enough people are thinking it and therefore tightening their belts. It needs a correction because it fundamentally doesn't make any sense.

I am not an economist, but I own a (fairly) successful business unrelated to aviation. We are fairly well insulated against a downturn but we are being more selective with our spending and this is being replicated in hundreds of thousands of businesses around the UK. Plus, I have recently been looking at houses as I was considering moving, but I have held off because I don't want to buy something to find that it loses £200k of its value over the next 12 months. This wasn't a consideration in a rising market and 12 months ago I would have moved. This type behaviour has an effect elsewhere in the economy.

As usual it is easier to knock people who put a huge amount of time into helping others on this site. WWW may be a bit short :uhoh: (I did meet him once at the first Wannabes thingy near Gatwick) but I have always had a lot of time for him and he tells it as he sees it and I don't believe he has anything other than good intentions. In my limited experience, this can't be said about many people in life.

If you are desperate to do flight training, why not do it piecemeal rather than all at once? It has to be the sensible way to do it. It sounds great "learning to fly for a year" but there are massive consequences not least having to pay back a frightening amount of money once the course is over. In the currrent climate it just doesn't stack up to me. Take your advice from the right sources and those are normally the ones who have been there and done it. This is why I have never listened to any sex education from a priest. :=

Anyway, just another opinion to be ignored from an old before his time 36 yr old :)

A and C

25th Apr 2008, 22:37

Headline in FT tomorrow............. "Negitive equity crisis overblown".

WWW can't be writing for the FT can he?

Wee Weasley Welshman

25th Apr 2008, 23:11

A & C weren't you disparaging listening to financial journalists just some hours ago? To quote you:

As we all know the standard of reporting in the papers on aviation matters is appauling[sic] so why should the standard of reporting on financial issues be any different ?

Time to get some opinion from another sorce[sic]?............ I think so!!

But if you want to trade headlines from tomorrows press I'll counter with The Telegraph:

UK house prices will fall almost 20pc in next two years
By Angela Monaghan
Last Updated: 11:34am BST 25/04/2008 http://tinyurl.com/693xge

UK house prices will fall by almost 20pc over the next two years, according to analysts at Capital Economics. The economics consultancy has slashed its forecasts for UK prices and now expects them to fall 8pc this year and 10pc in 2009, down from its original expectation of a 5pc fall in 2008...

If there is one graph I could ask you all to spend just 30 seconds looking at and considering it would be this one:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=8574

You see clearly here that the sequence of events is thus. A big increase in the ratio of earnings to house prices. Then there is a correction. This correction brings on a recession. The steepness of the rise in house price to earnings ratios roughly correlates with the length of the recession.

Now look where we are today. The average house price is at 7 times average earnings (much higher than the USA and anywhere else). House prices have fallen for 6 months in a row (and are accelerating). What bit comes next based on the graph above? Starts with an R.

I'm trying to paint with a slightly broader brush in this debate. There's not a great deal of point in getting hung up on this months stock rally/slump or this weeks job losses/gains etc etc. But Wannabes need to be able to stand back and survey the horizon.

I believe firmly that this time will be no different to the last times and that the last times are clearly illustrated in the graph above.

If this is true then Wannabes need to carefully plan in order to prosper. Which is what we all want at the end of the day..

WWW

A and C

26th Apr 2008, 08:24

The FT headline is just the opinion of the guy who wrote it (just as I noted the statments by an MP are his) but if it was left to you none of this fact would have been made this thread.

The FT says a 10% drop in house prices so one more time you take the blackest report.

All you seem to want to post is graphs that start at the top left and end at the bottom right.

We all know that the economy is slowing but a bit of balance is needed to show that it is all not as black as you paint it or as bright as Nick-Av sees it.

I,m just sitting some place in the middle living my no credit life and trying to keep balanced view of things.

Wee Weasley Welshman

26th Apr 2008, 09:28

Having a balanced view is precisely the point. On the one hand you have the entire flight training industry, the government and the house price industry all pumping out a relentlessly upbeat spin. I'm sure you're old enough and ugly enough to come to a balanced view but this site is used by an awful lot of younger Wannabes. For them to get some balance they need to consider the risks, the evidence of risk and the possible outcomes of risk. Which is what this thread does and which is fairly unique.

I've posted one graph showing personal savings rates that went from top left to bottom right. And another that doesn't do that but which illustrates a really important lesson from history which informs us in the present going into the future.

You seem resentful of this. I don't know why.

I'll put the bear argument - you and others put the bull. I won't censor you or be offended.

This is early 1990 though.

WWW

G SXTY

26th Apr 2008, 16:28

So you're an eighteen year old wannabe, just finishing A levels. You've got no life experience but good exam grades, and you want to be an airline pilot. Researching the industry, you read the flying magazines - particularly articles on how to become a commercial pilot. And what will the advice be? "There's never been a better time to train", "retirement bulge", "growth in Asia", "pilot shortage" etc etc. By an amazing coincidence, the magazines' back pages are chock full of flying school adverts, inviting you to get into massive debt to follow your dream. Phone any of the schools for 'advice' and you'll get the same message; "pilot shortage", "90% of our graduates get jobs within six months" etc etc.

What no-one tells you is that when this industry hits a downturn, as it does every 7-10 years or so, there are virtually no jobs for newly qualified pilots, nor will there be for a couple of years. Some airlines will go bust, flooding the job market with experienced pilots. As a newbie, you'll be lucky to find a job instructing - never mind flying a 737. And - unless you have extremely rich parents - you'll be trying to service a massive debt and struggling to stay current. It's not a nice situation, and it has happened before - most recently in 2001, and 1990 before that.

But as a youngster you won't know any of this. Chances are you'll be a little bit green and trusting, and when flying schools tell you what you want to hear, you're likely to believe them.

That's why WWW's message is so important. People need to understand what they're getting into, and the implications if it all goes wrong. Personally I don't believe the prospects are quite as bad as WWW thinks, but the potential is certainly there for the aviation industry to catch a cold.

Wannabes - particularly those whose memories don't stretch back to the last downturn - need to carefully consider their 'plan B'. Unpalatable as it is, they need to hear a bit of pessimism, because they sure as hell won't hear it from the flight training industry.

JB007

26th Apr 2008, 16:56

G SXTY

Amongst the general speculative press cutting's, G SXTY adds a post that is worth reading to a Wannabe! The message here is correct and spot on.

That and redsnail's Remember, there's no recession if you're in a job (and don't have crippling debt)....the two go hand in hand...

I got made redundant in the 90's from 2 charter airlines no-longer in business (they won't be forgotten though, best times ever). I slowley trained for an ATPL in 2001 to 2003, very nervously I might add...and here I am, possibly under threat from redundancy in 2008...the point is i'll still be here in 7 to 10 years time still loving taking a Boeing into the skies, day or night. I am just one of thousands who have been in the UK industry for more than 15 years - the world keeps turning and we just keep living and earning...it sort's itself out! Always has, always will...

To Every Wannabe; Welcome to Aviation, this is now your life, get used to it!

An injection of Glass Half Full...how can it not be any other way, we are paid to fly...

smith

26th Apr 2008, 16:58

WWW

If I may pick your brains? Why is it that big companies always try and maximise profits and squueze every penny out of you until something gives, and we go into a recession. ie a boom and bust economy cycling every seven years or so.

Would it not be better for banks and other big companies to plan for a more moderate sustained growth that could continue for years and avoid the bust.

I suppose human nature and greed makes us want the big bucks now, but a slower more sustained expansion may avoid the "bust" and over time would probably even itself out.

I,m probably talking rubbish but its just an idea I had.

Adios

26th Apr 2008, 17:23

Smith,

Yep, you're talking rubbish. Market driven economies are always cyclical between boom and bust. It's better than marxist economies, which are all bust and no boom except the guns of the secret police. I'll take the cyclical job shortages over the continuous ones any day. To think banks and corporations could moderate the the cycles or that government would be capable of moderating anything is a bit gullible and naive.

Wee Weasley Welshman

26th Apr 2008, 19:11

Its the force of creative destruction. In boom times there is easy capital and its relatively easy to start new businesses develop new markets and to expand existing ones.

Who could ever say when the optimum is reached?

So there is always a period of recession and this squeezes out the excess. It supresses the inflation and it kills of the weak sectors, the poorer ideas and the mismanaged.

Like a forest fire it has the effect of removing the dead wood. The strongest and fittest survive - both on the person and enterprise level to go into the next period of growth. Such is market evoltion as opposed to natural evolution. Booms and busts are a feature of free market capitalism.

Nobody has come up with a better system despite centuries or effort and millions of lives exploring the alternatives.

WWW

ps I'll find a working link to that graph - its a killer.

MarcoFF

27th Apr 2008, 08:08

Cheers G SXTY, a very good post. Thanks to everybody to their input in this thread, it has given loads of new thoughts! And please continue:ok:

"If the Wright brothers were alive today Wilbur would have to fire Orville to reduce costs."
- Herb Kelleher, founder, Southwest Airlines. (1994)

;)

chrisbl

27th Apr 2008, 09:04

As far as the housing market is concerned, the real indicator is in new build.

The house builders are really pulling back and many have stopped strating new developments and finishing of current developments.

The reasons for this are that a) Mortgages are hard to come by and people have less money because of rising living costs.

Just because interest rates are not at 15% does not mean things are better. Thats political spin.

when things were at 15% people borrowed less because the payments were so high and people borrowing are guided on what the monthly repayments are not the amount you could borrow.

A change of a couple of % when rates were 15% did not seem that much extra cash to pay out or have back.

If you have borrowed when rates were say 4% and have rates go up to 6% then that means a 50% increase in payments. A significantly different scenario.

when rates were 15% you might have borrowed £20,000. with rates at 4% you would have borrowed £120,000.

Now go figure.

smith

27th Apr 2008, 10:52

To think banks and corporations could moderate the the cycles or that government would be capable of moderating anything is a bit gullible and naive.

The banks and government are doing exactly that right now by making it more difficult to get credit. If they had made it slightly more difficult to get credit in previous years instead of throwing money at us willy nilly, this credit crunch maybe, just maybe could have been avoided.

I have no training in economics or finance but at the moment I work in the retail sector, I remember asking my area manager the same question during the last down turn and our company had let a lot of people go.

His reply was, at any one time there is a finite pot of money available and big companies compete with each other for as big a share of that pot hence trying to get us to spend as much money as possible.

My theory is that when all that money was available, if credit card companies, banks etc had made it more difficult to gain credit, the pot would have been smaller and hence a more sustainable growth would have been achieved, and this could have been achieved by the government and the banks.

In no way am I trying to rewrite the economy books, just trying to fathom why we have boom and bust cycles. To me it seemed like a greed cycle, everyone wanting instant gratification. Now I understand that the boom and bust sorts out the fittest and streamlines the survivors it makes sense, but probably not to the guy whose just bought his first home, has two kids and a car and has just been handed his P45.

I'll get me hat and coat now :bored:

Wee Weasley Welshman

27th Apr 2008, 10:53

And the chilling part of it is that as of yet we haven't had the UK subprime crisis and still the UK banks have lost billions. There are tens of thousands of UK households who 2 years ago took out a 95%+ mortgage on a two year discount or interest only who are today in negative or neutral equity. Their discount or fixed mortgage is about to reset from 4.2% to 6.6% and the new mortgage has a £1,500 set up fee, Sir.

The wife has just had her hours at work cut, the gas bill is up £300 so is the council tax and it just cost the husband £72 to fill his car. The new mortgage payment will be an extra £350 a month and the 0% deal on the credit card only has a fortnight to run.

I think we can wave bye bye to one of the holidays this year.

All this before we even start the recession and get to the job loss stage.

On the other hand it is a beautiful day out there and the Webber is warming up for those sausages. :)

WWW

Lurking123

27th Apr 2008, 11:35

On the other hand it is a beautiful day out there and the Webber is warming up for those sausages.

Weber, not Webber.

Anyway, I though the sun never shone in your world WWW.:O

peterinmadrid

27th Apr 2008, 11:51

Eos has just announced that it is ceasing operations.
http://www.eosairlines.com/

Wee Weasley Welshman

27th Apr 2008, 12:36

Thats the fifth US airline bust this year. The US is about 9 months ahead of where we are with the the house price crash and subprime crisis.

This really is very serious for Wannabes. Protect yourselves - avoid debt.

WWW

ps The Weber has done its usual excellent job thank you. Do not mistake my views on the economy as being in any way reflected in my personal demeanor. I call it as I see it but its largely other peoples problem - not mine.

pps My condolences to anyone who has lost their job at EOS - its a terrible thing to happen to anyone and I think you had a wonderful product.

A and C

27th Apr 2008, 16:24

The USA is closed to most Europeans and most Americans can't or won't work in Europe so an American airline closing is not much of a problem in Europe when it comes to jobs.

However the fallout in loss of confidence in the sector I likely to have more effect than the reality of an American airline failing.

I am always sad for the employees when an airline shuts, having done that thing I would not wish it on anyone.

I do agree whole hartedly with WWW on one thing, a lot of peope are going to cut back on the second holiday, the weekends in Amsterdam or Budapest will be the first thing to get the chop. However the last thing the British working class will give up is the two weeks in the sun mid-summer.

It would seem to be those airlines most commited to the "weekend away" market that are most likely to be hit the hardest.

And now for the good news today I did the first flying lesson for a guy who is intending to go for the ATPL by the modular route.............. his presant job is a trader for a big bank in the city, at least someone sees a bright future in aviation!

Wee Weasley Welshman

27th Apr 2008, 23:46

However the last thing the British working class will give up is the two weeks in the sun mid-summer.

On March 8th 1991 the then second biggest UK Charter airline, Air Europe, went bust in the midst of a serious recession. Dan Air (largely holiday charter) lost £35m which ultimately sealed their fate the year after. Providing package holiday flights is no particular safe haven in a serious recession.

I don't see any airline sector being immune. From Fractional through Legacy to Low Cost and Charter - less discretionary spending and less business travel will hurt them all.

The failures in the USA are merely indicative of what will happen in Europe as the US house price crash and economic recession are replicated here.

Wannabes need to protect themselves.

WWW

A and C

28th Apr 2008, 06:23

You seem to quote lot of economic history and the USA today Europe tomorrow is a thread that runns through your thinking.

The US economy is not as dominant as it was in the late 80's & early 90's, the rising economic stars are in the far east and the world economy is far less dependant on the USA, In the UK we don't have three million unemployed.

I to would issue a word of caution to wannabes but it would be a word of caution not tails of economic imploision.

Yes there is a an economic downturn but what better time to start a modular ATPL course, Keen prices from the training providors, keep your current job to help pay for it all and in two or three years you will be ready for a job just as the market picks up.

This time next year we will see who is right but I would guess that at least one UK lo-co won't have enough pilots and will be parking aircraft & cutting routes all because they have had a panic and stopped recruting now.

HN1708

28th Apr 2008, 08:45

I'm sure we can all agree that there has been a considerable rise in the cost of living in the UK in past couple years. I am no expert on economics and was wondering if anyone could shed some light on how the government claim that inflation is something like 3% pa and is only about 0.2% (or something like that) above what their target is?

I tend to look at simple things like household energy bills being almost double what they were 2 years ago, petrol being up as much as 30% and some food products being double.

Keen to get an insight into this!

potkettleblack

28th Apr 2008, 09:00

It all comes down to the above. From my limited university level understanding (and can't be ar*ed googling) of inflation you have a kitty of what the government determines that the "average family" consumes each month. Each of these items are then given a weighting as a proportion of the total kitty. Some items might get more than their own representative share in the kitty. How they get the average monthly prices for each I have no idea. What is in the kitty I have no idea. Is the kitty representative of what you or I may consume each month - probably not. But like all things it gives them a benchmark. So long as the goal posts don't move each month then they have a yardstick.

Incidentally I seem to remember a story a few years ago in the UK that the treasury discovered that they had been excluding something that should have been in the kitty but wasn't and therefore all their statistics were wrong! Can't remember the exact reason but fills you with confidence in the ability of the entrusted. Mind you if they can't keep hold of a CD or laptop then how they can do a inflation calculation is beyond me:)

Wee Weasley Welshman

28th Apr 2008, 09:28

In order to keep the house price boom running and thus maintain a feelgood factor allowing Labour to win the 2005 General Election, Gordon Brown changed the MPC inflation target from RPI to CPI.

CPI excludes housing costs. You know, that little bill each month called the mortgage. So whereas portable sat navs and DVD players were falling in price houses could boom and the official inflation target would be low and it would be met even though real Interest Rates were too low. The house price bubble was stoked quite deliberately by the Chancellor.

If you want a full breakdown of the official CPI basket it can be found in detail in the link below, note the basket is constantly being changed, brie cheese removed - probiotic drink added etc etc.

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/elmr/04_07/downloads/ELMR_April07_Wingfield.pdf

A&C I know we don't have 3 million unemployed. Would this because we have 2 million on Disability Allowance and 1 million Unemployed? There may not be so much of a spike in the official unemployment figures this time around. If you are one of the 2,000 Northern Rock staff about to lose their jobs would you:

a) Sit around for 12 weeks doing nothing until you are allowed to sign on. Then do so to claim your £44 a week for which you will be required to attend any job interview they arrange for you even if it is as night shift meat packer?

b) Get your backside down to McDonalds/Supermarket and start earning £44 a day which retains some dignity and allows you to keep pretty much all of it through the tax credit system plus other allowances now you are a low paid worker. Your CV will show continuous employment and you've never shirked work in your life and don't want to start now.

It'll be b) nearly every time.

Despite employment being strong for now, don't expect that to be the case by the end of the year.

If you look at the raw unemployment figures during the 1990s recession, the number of unemployed people was actually falling right up until May 1990, a good year or so after house prices started to fall. It then rose sharply from about two million to reach a peak of just above three million in January 1993, before starting to fall again.

WWW
House prices are opinion, the debt it real.

HN1708

28th Apr 2008, 09:49

Thanks for the explaination WWW, makes a lot of sense. 'If you can't score a goal then change the goal posts!'

I can think of 5 reasons for less people flying:

1) You get a lot less for your pound in Europe.
2) Less money is being lent and hence less money going around to be spent on holidays.
3) Fuel prices are up and the cost of travel will increase.
4) The cost of living is up relative to income, hence less disposable income.
5) There is a 'fear factor' about the economy which influences peoples' discretionary spending.

With all these factors combined i can see a lot of operators going down and the market being flooded with experienced crew, which will make a fresh minted fATPL like myself a lot less attractive!

I just hope the expert opinions about 'the industry bouncing back quicker than before' will mean i will have a prime position next time round, especially as less new pilots are likely to qualify due to lack of funding (i hope).

A and C

28th Apr 2008, 16:23

Do you know the number of people that claimed diability allowance in the early 90's?

During that period I had few personal friends who were unemployed now I know on one who is! I would like to see the numbers to see if your line on this issue is valid.

Wee Weasley Welshman

28th Apr 2008, 23:22

According to figures from the Department of Work and Pensions, as at 31 May 2004, there were 1.5 million people in receipt of IB. Some 7% of the UK’s working age population claims IB, compared with 2.1% in Germany and 0.3% in France. The average amount paid is £85 per week.

Todays figure is for 2.6 million Incapacity Benefit claimants...

In April 1992 the Unemployment claimants stood at 2,645,115.

Funny how as a society we are getting healthier, living longer and work has become less manual - yet somehow - there as many Incapable of work today as were Unemployed 15 years ago... Of course Incapacity Benefit pays £20 a week more than Job Seekers Allowance AND you don't have to attend those pesky job interviews all the time.

I think the numbers speak for themselves.

The government reclassified the unemployed and then let a couple of million Poles in to do all the work. Its really that simple.

WWW

Wee Weasley Welshman

28th Apr 2008, 23:24

Dear WWW - please try to avoid epic levels of thread drift and restrict yourself to more modest forays.

Thank you,

WWW

smith

29th Apr 2008, 00:00

Its late. I've deleted that. No harm done.

WWW

Wee Weasley Welshman

29th Apr 2008, 12:44

Here's some growing evidence.

http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?t=324842

SAS airlines post a £73m loss, bigger than expected and announced cost cutting plans which include cutting their fleet by 5%. You'll find plenty of those Norwegian/Swedish/Danish pilots have EXCELLENT english language and EXCELLENT CV's...

WWW

mustflywillfly

29th Apr 2008, 13:36

Fair one, but the horns will never fit in the cockpit.

Ok, hat, coat. "TAXI"....

Wee Weasley Welshman

29th Apr 2008, 13:50

Mortgages approved for home purchase (as opposed to applications refused OR re-mortgages)

Down 44% Year on Year

Seasonally Adjusted:

March 2008 - 64000
March 2007 - 114000

Non- SA:

March 2008 - 64000
March 2007 - 133000

There seems to be a 52% cliff fall in Estate Agents Profits, Builders Margins and Bankers Sales. This will feed through to airlines and the wider economy. Big Time.

Protect yourself,

WWW

Re-Heat

29th Apr 2008, 13:59

In order to keep the house price boom running and thus maintain a feelgood factor allowing Labour to win the 2005 General Election, Gordon Brown changed the MPC inflation target from RPI to CPI.

CPI excludes housing costs. You know, that little bill each month called the mortgage.
No, no, no.

They used RPI-X before, which was RPI less mortgage repayments, and changed it to CPI with an equivalent decrease in inflation target (due to composition of the index) to ensure comparability with other countries.

You can't have an inflation target with mortgage repayments in it in the UK, as mortgage repayments tend to be variable in the UK, hence raising the base rate would raise RPI, denoting greater inflation, necessitating a rate rise, which would raise RPI etc etc - completely circular.

The real inflation we are exposed to is not CPI or RPI at all - these are economists' measures for policy calculations and are not designed to be real inflation measures at all!

The government reclassified the unemployed and then let a couple of million Poles in to do all the work. Its really that simple.
Yes, but letting them in resulted - on all economic measures - in them creating new jobs through their own economic activity. The unemployed lot stayed unemployed and unemployable in some cases.

Ask your local GP how many idiots ask for "sick notes" and "disability certification" and you would be surprised. Sure, there are the truly ill, and the truly unemployed who need a hand getting back to the labour force, but there are a huge number of idiots out there as well.

On another note, I am quite sure that most of those laid off in the City this year probably won't bother signing on - and hence won't be counted - as it is not worth their while. They will live from savings and wait for the market to come back upward.

Wee Weasley Welshman

29th Apr 2008, 14:22

Re-Heat - I was simplifying. So you are correct in what you say. If you want to escalate the inflation targeting debate to Jedi level then so be it.

As is well known, CPI inflation is likely to be around 0.8 percentage points below RPIX inflation in the long run (see Nickell {MPC member}, 2003)

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=707085#PaperDownload

Most of this difference (0.5 percentage points) is down to the varying formula used to aggregate the inflation rates of all the different goods. The remaining 0.3 percentage points of the long-run difference is down to the exclusion of housing depreciation and Council Tax from CPI.

While the long-run impact of this exclusion is somewhat small, in the short run it can, and recently has had, a very substantial effect on the difference between CPI and RPIX inflation. Actually, because of the fact that the housing depreciation element of RPIX is based on house price inflation, throughout 2003/4/5 RPIX inflation was significantly above target whereas CPI inflation was below its subsequent target.

During this period the difference between the two measures of inflation was well over a percentage point.

<Jedi mode off>

House prices will crash 20%+ there will be a major recession and lots of airlines will go bust.

That's the easy bit to understand. The causes will only properly be understood in 2070 by Ben Bernakes Grandson.

WWW

Wee Weasley Welshman

29th Apr 2008, 14:35

Yes, but letting them in resulted - on all economic measures - in them creating new jobs through their own economic activity. The unemployed lot stayed unemployed and unemployable in some cases.

Totally agree. Now explain how bad the reverse effect will be. A tax-paying hard working workforce with no family or historic ties with this rain sodden island will be faced with a recession. They'll be on the first easyJet to either Home or somewhere not so rain sodden and not in recession.

Leaving the disability scroungers still scrounging and the remaining tax payers bearing a greater burden whilst being unable to find a decent plumber again.

It will be worse this time.

WWW

Re-Heat

29th Apr 2008, 14:41

Yes, I was just pointing out that you can't blame the index that is not designed to be used as a headline figure.

I don't believe a 20% crash is in order - what will happen is that people will not move house for a while, instead sitting there until they make little capital loss on sale.

Prices as a % of salaries will fall back to a more reasonable figure, and lending will contract (it has already) from 100% plus of property value to c.80%. Pent-up demand will be satisfied when developers sell off stock of houses at cheaper-than-expected rates, but I really doubt a crash per se is in order - the reason being that speculative second-home purchases were nowhere near as high as occurred in - for example - Dublin. (and the buy-to-let mortgage market remained reasonably sensible...)

Wee Weasley Welshman

29th Apr 2008, 14:51

You are ignoring the Buy To Let disaster.

Sure lots of people will sit tight. Which means estate agents go bust as do the paint sellers and carpet makers.

What about those getting divorced, dying or losing their jobs? How do they sit tight? They can't - so they sell - so defining the new valuation of your house.

Its a spiral just like a boom but in the opposite direction.

The BTL brigade are nursing negative equity as house valuations fall. Many of them will not be able to refinance without much higher costs which they will be unable to pass on to their tenants. Many were already making a negative monthly return but were enjoying annual capital appreciation. With this removed they have a stark choice:

Sell the portfolio and stop losing money every month, or,

Stick with losing money and hope the crash doesn't continue.

Rock and hard place.

WWW

General Zod

29th Apr 2008, 15:09

BTL disaster? Not necassrily.

With the tightening of the credit market people, esp first time buyers, are going to find themselvers stuck in the private rented sector for a lot longer than they planned, this will swell the demand for private sector rented accomodation and keep rents bouyant.

There are also a number of people who sold up at the top of the market and are now in the rented sector waiting for the market to bottom out before buying again.

I think that the only place that will see a real price and rents depreciation is the SE of England where prices/rents were artificially high in any case. Up here in Scotland we still have above ave GDP growth, c8-10% house price growth and private rents are growing nicely

HappyFran

29th Apr 2008, 15:13

If new entrants are not coming into the property market (historically known as first time buyers) will they stay in the rental market..just like you ?. New entrants will continue to appear ( age, new relationships etc)and want /need to rent. So demand for rental property will go up....and therefore rentals. :*

Wee Weasley Welshman

29th Apr 2008, 15:21

Nice idea. What about 1m Poles going home, the largest UK house builder quitting building houses because they can't sell the empty ones they have and the hundreds of flats and small houses going under the auctioneers hammer every weeks for tens of thousands of pounds less than they sold for last year or the year before.

I'll buy a couple of flats at auction for £100k less than you paid for them last year and start renting them out for £400 a month less than you need to rent your out for. I'll be making a small profit and you'll be bankrupt by Christmas.

Thats the reality facing many landlords.

WWW

HappyFran

29th Apr 2008, 15:34

I can only comment on the reality of rents on the South coast that are going up !. House prices may be looking shakey but not rentals. General Zod seems to think all is well in Scotland. I would imagine someone, if not the poles are going to have to build the Olympic stadiums, (if they ever get around to it) they will need rental accomodation..so should be OK there. So that leaves the Wales, Midlands and N England with rental problem ? and massive price drops on flats !
General Statistics are jolly interesting but can hide a multitude of variances :)
2 bed flats in Manchester may get cheap (rents and price) but larger properties in the N.W may be subject to a range of differing national and local factors :cool:

RVR800

29th Apr 2008, 15:40

I've just sold for more than last year by a large margin (up north)

Its all Daily Express driven is this doom and gloom :suspect:

We will all die horribly AHHHHHH :sad:

Lurking123

29th Apr 2008, 16:01

WWW, if we accept that the downturn is here/just around the corner, when does your crystal ball predict recovery?

RMC

29th Apr 2008, 17:14

Lurking not possible to predict recovery..but history is your best guide.

1972 World Revenue Pax Miles (RPMs) increased 13% on the 1970 figure.
1973 World Gross Domestic Product also increased by 13%

Mid 1973 start of official recession period.

1974 World RPMs year on year increase 4%
1975 World GDP year on year increase 1%

Mid 1975 end of recession

1976 World RPM increase 9%
1976 World GDP increase 10%

Mid 1980 Start of 80's recession.

1980 World RPMs up 1.5%
1981 World GDP up 2%

1983 recession ends

1984 World RPM up 8.5%
1984 World GDP up 9%

The begining of 1991 was the start of the shortest recession in recent history

1991 World RPMs down 3% (the one and only time year on year RPMs went down since 1970).
1991 World GDP up 0.5%

Begining of 1992 was the end of recession period (but there was a very slow recovery).
World RPMs up 2.5%
World GDP up 1.5%

I was working for British Aerospace and Airbus during the early 1990's and although our orderbooks were full initially there were cancellations the likes of which had never been seen before. Ultimately we had to sell A320s to Swissair for $18 Million each (roughly the sticker price for engines alone) just to keep production ticking over.

Between 1990 and 1994 IATAs member airlines suffered cumulative losses of $20.4 billion. This figure was greater than the cumulative profits since WW2.

Be in no doubt guys that the health of our industry is directly related to the world economy. Probably the most significant difference this time is that there will be jobs for those made redundant in the Middle / Far east.

On the housing front we are (probably) in for a slump (although no one really knows) but the 20% figures being suggested are estimates UK wide. I currently work in Scotland which is still doing well. Most of my properties are in NW England (and they are unlikely to fall more than 10%).

Wee Weasley Welshman

29th Apr 2008, 18:33

Rentals are crumbling but its like the house price drops that started in Sept last year - they are small and people don't see it unless they are looking. They will become widespread by the end of the year.

Get yourself the FireFox browser and get the PropertyBee add on. This logs every asking price on Rightmove as you browse and shows you any changes when you browse again in the future. Its very easy to keep a perfect record of For Sale and For Rent asking prices on every property in your area for a massive radius. Asking prices are already up to 20% down commonly. Rentals are just starting to soften. Try it and see for yourself.

I expect this year to decline rapidly towards a recession in Q1, 2 & 3 in 2008. There will then be a 2 year recovery from there. Normal growth I expect to see return in 2011.

But I don't know. I'm not in any way certain. There are far too many variables and I don't have anywhere near enough information nor understanding to make any kind of reliable prediction.

All I've been certain of so far is the UK house price crash and the economy slowing to below 2% and a recession next year. If you accept that then the implications for the airlines and Wannabeism are depressingly grim.

WWW

MIKECR

29th Apr 2008, 21:20

well oil finally appears to have dropped in price today. Down 3$ a barrell

RMC

29th Apr 2008, 21:25

WWW

I think we both agree no one has the ability to predict the future of the housing market. There are pleanty of Doctorate trained economists ,with more knowledge in their little finger than you and I combined, who can't agree on this.

In EDI and GLA prices have not shown any significant drop. In my part of the North West there are still hot spots where prices are still increasing. I was out bid at auction for a old school 15 miles from where you used to live £111 K from an original guide of £50K!:eek:Historically the significant down turn you speak of is more likely to be where the serious price rises have taken place over the last ten years (South of the Watfrod gap).

What we do agree on is the more important (and depressing) point that the economy is on the way down and with it the profitability of most European and US Airlines.

Wee Weasley Welshman

29th Apr 2008, 21:38

Migas - knowing you don't know anything is nothing to be ashamed about or apologise for. I've never given an opinion here without providing sources, data or evidence of similar opinion. One mans fears on an internet discussion forum should and would be easily ignored if there wasn't anything to back it up. Unfortunately the evidence for a house price crash a recession and a period of airline bankruptcies is all too readily at hand..

MIKECR - Oil will touch $150 a barrel by Christmas. That's my guess, in print, lets see come Boxing Day.

RMC - your belief in the local housing maket into which you have just bought is touching if not naive. Your area will be down at least 10% as the UK wide house price crash unfolds just as it has in America. First in pockets, then in States, then Nationwide.

WWW

MIKECR

29th Apr 2008, 22:01

I'll go for 130$ tops.

Irish_Stu

29th Apr 2008, 22:33

A mate of mine just bought a house in N.Ireland for 145k. A chap around the corner from him bought the same design of house a year ago for 190k.
We went for a drive at the weekend and played a game of "spot the sold sign". I think we saw about three, compared to hundreds of for sale signs. Also noticed a fair few "reduced for quick sale" stickers on the for sale signs.
Not before time either. Things got absolutely crazy here for a while, ex-council houses in rough, run-down estates selling for upwards of 160 grand, absolutely ludicrous.
I feel sorry for anyone affected negatively by it, but as a prospective first time buyer, I welcome it with open arms.

Wee Weasley Welshman

30th Apr 2008, 07:06

The Nationwide house price figures for April were released this morning. They show the average house prices in the month fell by 1.1%. For this first time since 1996 this takes the 12 month Year-on-Year figure negative to -1%.

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Apr_2008.pdf

The average UK house is now worth less than it was this time last year.

This has massive implications for consumer confidence. It means negative equity is back. It means BTL rental yields + capital appreciation is often now a negative sum. It means millions of people will have to dramatically curb their lifestyles now the brick built cash machine they sleep in has run out of cash.

It is massive.

WWW

shaun ryder

30th Apr 2008, 07:29

Nationwide Airlines {South African based lo-co airline, Ed, WWW} ceased operations yesterday. It looks like they will be entering bankruptcy in the next few days?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=a89wqby1i5Tc&refer=africa

MaxJet.
Supposed financial difficulties and talk of the airline failing prompts a stopsell at one of the the UKs largest business travel agents.

RMC

30th Apr 2008, 07:31

WWW

Like a lot of the moderators on this forum you seem to have developed a sense of your own self importance which is misplaced. I have a Masters Degree in Business Management which taught me one thing...how little I know. I have been involved in property for far longer than you so won't take lectures.

RTFA- I said prices in Scotland were currently not suffering a drop. I also said there are hot spots...and if you know where to look you can recession proof your deals.Fact there are micro environments which do go against the trend.

HN1708

30th Apr 2008, 07:52

I don't think anyone is refuting that some places are yet unaffected/will be less affected by property values dropping, but i think it is fair to say that the majority of people will suffer and the whole economy will be more prone to recession as a result.

Most of the opinions on here are very factual, well backed up and provide useful and informative reading for people considering investing large sums in flight training.

I started training in 2000 and gave up after getting my PPL a month pre-11/9, only to have finally completed it all in time for the next blow to the aviation industry- good timing eh!

Wee Weasley Welshman

30th Apr 2008, 07:56

RMC - I'm truly humbled by your MBA. You seem a little hostile about my observation that without Capital Appreciation the BTL game is pretty much over. You then inform us that you have been involved in property for a long time. I think I can guess why you are hostile about a perfectly correct observation.

Migas - as you don't like this thread I've banned you from it (for 48hrs) to save you the trouble of posting on it again. :E

WWW

HN1708

30th Apr 2008, 08:00

With all due respect, i don't think there's any need to ban people from posting. Let them be responsible for their own undoing by not being able to substantiate what they claim!

Honiley

30th Apr 2008, 08:02

...and some of us have been around the UK aviation industry for a long time.

I think we've established there is an economic downturn, live with it! It will bounce back, always has. The major UK airlines will survive, cut backs are inevitable, its happening now for a business plan for 2009, expect may be even more cuts for 2010.

The fact still remains there is alot of good news about the UK aviation scene, if you care to know/look what's going on and as David Brent said, "look at the whole pie.."

This thread of WWW's high economic platform of copy/paste material should be closed - we've all got what you think...so wind yer neck in and pick up a copy of Flight, that way you might have some idea what's going on i.e. Openskies for instance, and give Wannabe's some real advice!

Rant over! And rest....

Gav28

30th Apr 2008, 08:12

Growing evidence

RMC: well stated:ok:. I am with you. it seems someone has lost the bearings here.

This thread from the start to the end is a complete set of non-senses, and should belong to Economic forums rather then PPrune.

As a wannabe I'd probably say this is one of the most interesting and useful threads I've read on Pprune for some time.

HappyFran

30th Apr 2008, 08:21

WWW or should it be CCCP

:E

Wee Weasley Welshman

30th Apr 2008, 08:23

Honiley - thanks for stepping in with that.

Nice to see you are consistent:

http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?p=61803#post61803

Honiley said (20th September 2001, 21:53) :

WWW (or is it the Grim Reaper!?)

Forgive me if I sound a little tense, but I work for "Big Airways" and am obviously unsure of my future....

How much longer are you going to keep writing things that people can work out for themselves...For gods sake, lets just see how this industry develops in the next few months and we'll all see for ourselves...

I think enough has been said on this subject so please close your topic and wind yer neck in !!!

So over the last 7 years you still haven't lost your dislike of me talking here about Wannabe recruitment prospects. Last time you were part of BA facing difficulties and this time you are part of TuiFly who are overcrewed. If I'm saying things you don't like to read then try to remember the audience I'm trying to address is not you but the Wannabe making career plans.

Cheers

WWW

Honiley

30th Apr 2008, 09:20

PPRuNe...and big red letters at the bottom mate! But thank you for taking the time to do a search...

This thread has loooong gone past helping Wannabe Career Prospects. But is nursing some elevated self importance! :rolleyes::confused:

01st May 2008 approaches, the new Summer Season; What's relevant now is how Q4, in aviation terms, of this year is shaping up i.e. the traditional recruitment time of year! We are already getting a very clear picture, lots still to happen; Wannabes have access to Pro Pilots here, who are prepared to have a look, some who have a very good understanding of the industry due to experience...this is where this thread should re-start!

H

Wee Weasley Welshman

30th Apr 2008, 09:46

Why is the 1st May the start of the summer season? My airline started flying the summer programme some weeks ago.

You've no comment on the fact that in Sept 2001 my words of caution to Wannabes was 100% correct and that within 12 months jobs were non-existent. You just didn't like me saying it then and you don't like me saying it now. Is this just a Jersey trait?

You want this thread to somehow restart once there is a clear picture so that pro-pilots can comment who have a very clear good understanding of the industry due to experience. Have you been drinking?

We are entering a major recession. If you think different I beg you to make the counter argument here. Wannabes need a lively debate from which to draw their own conclusion which will inform their training decisions.

You're playing the man not the ball. Did I upset you in a previous life?

WWW

Wee Weasley Welshman

30th Apr 2008, 10:55

Stop it Paris! You are 'talking us into a recession' with your 'doom and gloom' - why can't you just be happy and keep spending?!?

WWW

RVR800

30th Apr 2008, 14:11

It will all blow over quite quickly....

Try to buy at the trough when house prices drop 50%!:ugh:

RVR800

30th Apr 2008, 14:40

"It is pretty obvious that if the recent significant rise in the fuel price is maintained, then our second half profits will be lower than we had previously expected," said chief executive Andy Harrison.

:{

Wee Weasley Welshman

30th Apr 2008, 16:10

I'm not holding out for a 50% drop before buying a house. 30% is the most I expect to see sometime towards the second half of 2009. 50% would see us in a Depression not a Recession.

With the current outlook Andy Harrison (CEO easyJet) has changed the business plan quite significantly. From a plan of 12 new Airbuses late 2008, and in 2009 a removal of 10 737-700s but adding 36 Airbus 319s (net increase 26 aircraft). We now have a plan to lose 5 737-700s this year, and 25 737-700s plus 15 ex-GB Airways Airbus A320/321s in 2009.

This works out as a tiny growth of 7 aircraft this year and a fleet shrinkage of -4 aircraft next year. First time in a decade of operations that EZY have shrunk their fleet.

If you wanted a BellWeather then there one is ringing loud and clear

From hoovering up 300+ new pilots a year to needing to let some go. All in the matter of a few months. Did they mention that in the flying school brochure? Ryanair was the number one employer of ex-Oxford graduates by a country mile last year. They are parking a fifth of their fleet this winter..

WWW

gyni

30th Apr 2008, 18:19

When/where did AH announce this new plan? :confused:

NickGooseBrady

30th Apr 2008, 20:45

EJ have recently pressed the pause button for offering ANY more CTC Wings Cadet graduates TR courses. The CTC marketing machine is selling an ever increasing number of courses to their customers, sorry "successful applicants" add to this Oxford, Scabair, FTE et al and the market will soon start to flood. EJ have traditionally hoovered up a lot of CTC grads, hence CTC are looking elsewhere to build airline relationships (apart from Thomson, BA, etc etc) such as FlyBe. This in turn reduces opportunities for grads from other integrated or modular courses.

Add to this the "credit crunch" and the continued reduction in airline recruitment across the board and I think that times really are going to be bloody hard for everyone for at least 2 years. I know that wannabees are a hardy bunch as flying is a dream for most people and not just a job but timing and finance will be EVERYTHING for the wannabee in the coming two years.

Is there any more to say really? We could continue with "growing evidence that the downturn is upon us" but I think we all know that a downturn is most definately upon us. How about a "Cunning ways to survive the downturn" thread!!

Anyway back to the Apprentice - is it just me or are they all total looosers this year?

Cheers

NGB

kj990

30th Apr 2008, 21:36

Worrying times indeed, with or without an MBA.

Reminds me of the months leading up to the time Moira Stewart on the BBC said 'Air Europe has ceased operations'. Different reasons this time maybe but still bad if you loose your job.

Batten down the hatches.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/apr/30/useconomy.interestrates

Wee Weasley Welshman

30th Apr 2008, 22:03

I don't <blush> actually have an MBA - I left education and got a real job before the idea of adding another three letters to my sad wankey business card took hold..

This little house went under the hammer today at an auction that I was at for £70k.

http://www.eigroup.co.uk/onlineauctions/lotpub.asp?a=11017&l=495072

Previously it had sold for £132,500

http://www.houseprices.co.uk/e.php?q=%20%206%20Bevan%20Court%20%20%20WA4&s=1&n=100

That £50k loss is why your bank is in trouble, why you can't get a loan for flight training and why the housing market is about to fall off a cliff that will make 1991 look like the big yellow tree house having a party with tis was...

WWW

student88

30th Apr 2008, 22:12

Anyway back to the Apprentice - is it just me or are they all total looosers this year?

I'd have to agree! The quality of applicants this year it mighty low. Then again, I think to myself, what self respecting businessman or woman would give up a great career for a chance of being employed by SAS? I'd say they're more interested in their 15 minutes of fame - that'd be the only reason why I'd apply. Alan was right to give Kevin the sack, I just hope that Jenny (the ginger one) and Helene are next to go! I can't help but feel that they're all bullying Sara - her idea for a card to celebrate other religious festivals was great!

S88:ok:

mustflywillfly

1st May 2008, 08:04

Was in a well known FTO on the S Coast the other day. Overheard a couple of fellow wannabees talking about employment post training. They must only have been about 18 - 23 years old.

OMG!!! How completely naive and immature were these guys!! Apparently Ryanair is taking on 5000 pilots in the next 2 years because they are opening 33 new routes!! :ugh:

Dream on!! Do the youngsters really wonder into these things with their eyes wide shut. At least when it comes to interviews I would hope that any self respecting airline would employ the more mature character with a little bit of real world nouse! These guys made me cringe.

Incidentally I echo NGB words, not just about the apprentice, lol, but about moving on and starting a new thread about how to survive the downturn. We don't really need much more doom and gloom , quite frankly if people haven't got the message that things are slowing down (to what degree is still unkown and speculation is a waste of time and can only prove to massage some peoples egos) then they deserve to crash and burn.

I continue with my training but with my head firmly screwed on! If certain peoples shock tactics haven't got through to the wannabee then I don't think they ever will. Let us move on!

MFWF

Wee Weasley Welshman

1st May 2008, 08:14

You might have got the message but that doesn't mean we should stop broadcasting it.

You want a thread about surviving a downturn? Well start one then.

WWW

mustflywillfly

1st May 2008, 08:47

I got the message along time before this thread was even started, it didn't take a genius to work out that we had hit a peak and were now on the slope back down. I think I started questioning the wisdom of my career change well before all this recent doom and gloom. Hence my house went up for sale and I moved into rented earlier this year. Cash in the bank, lovely!

Now is that the royal we? :E

Cheers MFWF.

P.S WWW are you ever at work?? Or have EJ installed the tinternet on their flight decks now?

A and C

1st May 2008, 08:50

Modular training and continuing in a job, low or no credit is what the old git recomends!

Just as I have said from the start, it worked for me during the last big downturn but he important thing is to keep a positive attitude, the chances are all of this will have blown over by the time you have got the fATPL.

And the last thing is can we please pass the hat around for WWW as he will need some help when the 30% house price crash fails to happen and he has to get back on the property ladder.

Wee Weasley Welshman

1st May 2008, 08:56

I'm currently at badminton horse trials but I have an iPhone so I'm never offline unless actually airborne. Smart move to STR - nice feeling isn't it?

WWW

redsnail

1st May 2008, 09:22

Horse trials? I didn't even know there was a case to answer? :E

In Moscow... :bored:

RMC

1st May 2008, 15:57

WWW-It's not what you say it's the way that you say it.

"RMC - your belief in the local housing maket into which you have just bought is touching if not naive."

In my book that is unwarrented patronising.Don't have many buttons these days but that is one of them.

Bottom line is probably what most people know..there is going to be a drop in prices in most areas and the further south you go the worse it is likely to be. Those who did not buy below market value may well be in for a hard time.

End of input.

Wee Weasley Welshman

1st May 2008, 17:08

I never said anything. I typed something.

You can read it in any tone of voice you like including patronising. I have no control over that and its a major drawback of the old internet discussion board. 99% of people would get on 99% of the time with their fellow discussion members IF said discussion was going on in the pub. By nature of the medium people end up wanting to throttle one another here on a daily basis.

But it keeps it fun.

Right, I've had far too much Pimms and I'm going to have a snooze.

WWW (hic)

BartV

1st May 2008, 18:25

Europe will tear itself apart economically as the Euro brushes up to 1.50 euro to the dollar.

I just started reading this thread and WWW's above quote looks funny :E

Wee Weasley Welshman

1st May 2008, 20:48

Its actually popped its head over the 1.60 threshold a few weeks back!

WWW

Tootles the Taxi

1st May 2008, 21:50

I work at what might be described as a 'boneyard'. In recent weeks the tug's have busy moving airframes from their somewhat random parking positions into neat rows separated by no more than a few feet. This has increased the amount of available parking (storage) area by at least 50%. Last time I saw this was around Oct'01 & I for one could not have imagined the number of relatively new aircraft (largely B777's) that arrived shortly thereafter.

I've been watching some of the now defunct Skybus fleet being delivered today; sad to see 3 A320's arriving within 20mins of each other for an uncertain future. Two weeks ago it was Aloha with 737-8's. Friends of mine who have recently secured employment with regional carriers here are now being laid off when only a month ago were told that the airlines couldn't fill the right-hand seats fast enough.

Things sure happen quickly in this industry.

student88

1st May 2008, 22:00

Am I correct in thinking that it's about $1,228 per tonne of fuel at the moment?

S88:ok:

saccade

4th May 2008, 11:34

"The Half-Life For Air Travel"

I know only a small minority are worried that oil prices are a threat to aviation on the long term, because, "we will invent our way out of it, there is plenty of oil, we just swap to alternatives, people need to fly, it will sort itself out" etc, etc.

The truth is that more and more experts are convinced that global production can not be increased much further:

Though largely unnoticed by the world media, a decisive moment in the peak oil debate came last September, when James Schlesinger declared that the "peakists" were right. You don't get closer to the American establishment and energy business than Schlesinger, who has served as chair of the Atomic Energy Commission, head of the CIA, Defense Secretary, Energy Secretary and adviser to countless oil companies. In a speech to a conference sponsored by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, Schlesinger said, "It's no longer the case that we have a few voices crying in the wilderness. The battle is over. The peakists have won."

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080512/hertsgaard

and in relation to aviation,

Ten or 15 years from now, air travel is likely to be significantly reduced; will be patronized by business travelers or the very wealthy; and will be limited to trans-oceanic or long-distance flights between major population centers.

http://www.fcnp.com/national_commentary/the_peak_oil_crisis_the_half-life_for_air_travel_20080501.html

Lurking123

4th May 2008, 12:05

Peak Oil is a very real issue for everyone, not just for a few hundred ATPL wannabees. Maybe air transport will be hit first but, in the longer term, this is a world changing phenomena.

Philpaz

4th May 2008, 14:49

I think everyone will be suprised to see how many "ideas" never made it as far as the patent office. The oil companys are only interested in profit margins and as long as the world is addicted to oil there margins are high. When it all comes to a grinding halt the inventions that would have made oil burners a thing of the past long ago will be on sale, by the oil companys.
Well thats my opinion anyway.

v6g

4th May 2008, 16:31

"we will invent our way out of it, there is plenty of oil, we just swap to alternatives, people need to fly, it will sort itself out"

- you forgot the dumbest-of-them-all: "there's huge reserves yet to be found"!

A and C

4th May 2008, 17:07

saccade

4th May 2008, 18:26

A good few years back (late 70's I think) Flight international had a publicity picture of a stage coach pulling up in front of a Concorde. The spoof caption read "due to worlds oil running short passengers travel to the airport by stage coach to save oil reserves for aviation". At the time the tree huggers told us that the oil would all be gone by 1995 and Flight international ran a story about these fears.

This must be the second (political induced) oil crises of 1979. The link below is interesting because it shows how high the interest of finding a replacement was in 1979. And 30 years later...
http://www.icao.int/icao/en/nr/1979/pio197914_e.pdf

I am also sure that given the huge rewards for the company that finds the "oil replacement" it won't be too long coming.

There are actually some alternatives, but the big problems are costs and volume. Petroleum based fuels are so incredibly cheap, so convenient and they provides so much energy that it is very hard to produce anything similar. An oil geologist has calculated that 1 barrel of oil produces as much energy as 12 workers during 1 year, and this says a lot about the true value of oil. The current 'replacements' are non-conventional (energy intensive) sources such as tar sands and maybe oil shale, since they are viable at these high prices. But they can't be produced at the high volumes and they are not a big answer to depleting conventional sources. Algae oil costs $800 per barrel, so it seems unlikely that bio fuels will save aviation.

But untill then I see oil used less and less in industrys that can use alternative energy.

This is happening already since 1980. The oil consumption per capita has peaked in 1980 and is in decline trough the use of other sources and better efficiency. The problem is that oil is still cheap enough for most users. Europeans pay $360 per barrel to fill up their cars, and nobody is considering the step to an electric powered car! Another big user, the petrochemical industry, also has no problems at all with higher oil prices.