Iran to Buy 250 SU30s & Tankers?

[ORAC]

Reports: Iran to buy jets from Russia (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?c=JPArticle&cid=1185379034835&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull)

Israel is looking into reports that Russia plans to sell 250 advanced long-range Sukhoi-30 fighter jets to Iran in an unprecedented billion-dollar deal.

According to reports, in addition to the fighter jets, Teheran also plans to purchase a number of aerial fuel tankers that are compatible with the Sukhoi and capable of extending its range by thousands of kilometers. Defense officials said the Sukhoi sale would grant Iran long-range offensive capabilities.

Government officials voiced concern over the reports. They said Russia could be trying to compete with the United States, which announced over the weekend a billion-dollar arms sale to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.

Despite Israeli and US opposition, Russia recently supplied Iran with advanced antiaircraft systems used to protect Teheran's nuclear installations. At the time, Moscow said it reserved the right to sell Iran weapons, such as the antiaircraft system, that were of a defensive nature.

The Sukhoi-30 is a two-seat multi-role fighter jet and bomber capable of operating at significant distances from home base and in poor weather conditions. The aircraft enjoys a wide range of combat capabilities and is used for air patrol, air defense, ground attacks, enemy air defense suppression and air-to-air combat.

After years of negotiations, the Indian Air Force in 1996 purchased 40 Sukhoi-30s and in 2000 acquired the license from the company to manufacture an additional 140 aircrafts.

[Squirrel 41]

ORAC: many thanks for posting this.

Well, there's a surprise! US/UK/FR pour weapons into Saudi and the Gulf states, (as well as Israel) and those nasty Iranians rush off to the rotten Russians and offer them a billion dollars for squillions of Su-30s and AAR (presumably Il-78s) tankers.... quelle surprise....

If true, then the more concerning thing is whether the threat posed by the new Su-30s and associated weapons systems actually increases the attraction of a pre-emptive strike -- see NSC 2002 (www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss.pdf) for the current US doctrine of Premptive Strikes (acting first when an enemy looks likely to attack) and Preventative War (stopping the threat emerging).

The first of these is of dubious legality (depending in effect on how close the attack is) and the second is completely illegal.

Ho hum - we seem destined to live in ever more interesting times!

S41

[Pontius Navigator]

What price F3s now?

Maybe we could sell them? :)

[Maple 01]

You know the flat earthers that have been slagging off the Air-to-Air Typhoon? The ones that have been repeatedly asking why the UK needs a fighter force as there's no perceivable threat? Where are they now? Seems there's some humble pie to be eaten

[PPRuNeUser0211]

Well said that man!

[air pig]

Will we have enough Typhoon's and just as important tankers and all the other support to go with them??

Short answer = NO

[ORAC]

DebkaFile: (http://www.debka.com/index.php)

Tehran and the Russian Rosoboronexport arms group are about to sign a mammoth arms deal running into tens of billions of dollars for the sale to Tehran of 250 Su-30MKM warplanes and 20 IL-78 MKI fuel tankers.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report Iran has stipulated delivery of the first aircraft before the end of 2007.

The transaction, Russia’s largest arms deal in 30 years, will endow Iran with a long-range aerial assault capability. The Sukhoi can sustain a four-and-a-half hour raid at its maximum range of 3,000 km against long-distance, marine and low-lying ground targets across the Persian Gulf and Middle East, including Israel and Lebanon.

The fuel tankers extends the Su-30MKM’s assault sustainability to 10 hours and its range to 8,000 km at altitudes of 11-13 km. The closest comparable plane in the West is the American F-15E fighter bomber. Iran’s acquisition of an exceptionally large fleet of the Russian fighter-bomber will elevate its air force to one of the two largest and most advanced in the region, alongside the Israeli Air Force.

Iranian air crews are already training on the new Sukhoi aircraft, ready to start flying them early next year with only a short delay after delivery.

DEBKAfile’s sources report that Moscow is selling Tehran the same Sukhoi model as India received earlier this year. The Iranians leaned hard on New Delhi to let them have the Israeli avionics and electronics the Indian Air Force had installed in the Russian craft. India refused.

Russia began delivering the same craft in June to Malaysia, which also sought Israeli avionics without success. The Su-20MKM has won the nickname of “Islamic Version of Sukhoi.”

Its two-member crew shares the workload. The first pilot flies the aircraft, controls weapons and maneuvers the plane in a dogfight. The co-pilot employs BVR air-to-air and air-to-ground guided weapons in long-range engagements, sweeps the arena for enemy craft or missiles and performs as command-and-control in group missions.

Some of the plane’s systems are products of the French Thales Airborne Systems company. Moscow’s contract with Tehran for the sale of the Su-30MKM must therefore be cleared with Paris.

There is no decision in Jerusalem about asking Paris to withhold its consent to a deal which would substantially upgrade the long-range air assault capabilities of the Islamic Republic whose leaders want to wipe Israel off the map. However, President Nicolas Sarkozy is in mid-momentum of a diplomatic drive in the Arab and Muslim world and unlikely to be receptive to an Israeli approach. The only chance of aborting the Russian sale would be to route the approach through Washington.

[Hamish 123]

I'm somewhat sceptical about Iran's ability to maintain and run an airforce of 250 FJs, plus tankers, without serious input from the Russians on a day to day level.

Like flying them for a start. If the Indians have only got a max of 180, and they're a somewhat more stable nation state, how else will the Iranians come from nowhere (I'm assuming the Iranian airforce currently consists of a couple of F14 gathering dust, not having flown for 20 years) to an airforce of 250+?

[ORAC]

I would be hesitant to jump to such conclusions. They have succesfully kept their F-14s flying despite sanctions and have produced their own indigenous fighter based on the F-5.

Their orbat contains over 300 F-14s, F-4s, F-5s, Su-24s, Mig-27s, MiG-29s, Mirage F-1s and Chinese J-6 and J-7s.

Iran - Air Force ORBAT (http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iran/airforce-equipment.htm)

[air pig]

Hamish, the Indians have a mixed country of purchase inventory in aircraft, so therefore are not beholden to one single state. They fly British (Sea Harriers) French (Mirage 2000) and Soviet (SU 30 Flanker H) designed combat aircraft.

Whilst it may take time for the Iranian air force to learn the new systems, only they know their time scale to full operational capability and more importantly what they want to do with it.

The Indian gave the Americans quite a shock at Cope India, who is to say others cannot do the same given enough time, money and ability.

Are people going to be advocating the same road as recent history and a dodgy dossier perhaps.

The French as usual will do what is best for France and NOBODY else.

[Affirmatron]

Excellent, another Cold War in the offing. More Defence spending here, recruitment frenzy, Iranian nuclear weapon development, Russia and China supporting the Iranians in the UN. The Americans won the last Cold War because they had more money. Next time.....

[4Foxtrot]

"Whilst it may take time for the Iranian air force to learn the new systems..."

True. Especially so if they are merging their defence procurement and logistics agencies or going through some kind of slimming down, leaning if you will, type process. hat..... coat....

Would we put it past the Russians to put their own pilots into Iranian SU-30s, in the same way the Chinese did in Korea? That would certainly speed things up in terms of perceived capability.

[Green Flash]

Genuine question, folks.

So, Tehran has 250+ mega Jabo's. What is the likely scenario, then? Close the Straits of Hormuz, obviously. Then what? Invade? Who? Over a land border would be easier, I presume. Iraq, then. Any good stratagists in here tonight? What are they going to do next? :confused:

[MarkD]

You know the flat earthers that have been slagging off the Air-to-Air Typhoon? The ones that have been repeatedly asking why the UK needs a fighter force as there's no perceivable threat? Where are they now?Well... you mightn't need them Typhoons if you avoid following GWB into GWIII. Even with tanker support I doubt the Iranians would make it to the Cliffs of Dover before someone took an exception to their flyover en route, and TLAMs onto their airfields would put the frighteners on the tankers and fighters if they kicked off an anti-ship deployment against oil ops in the Gulf.

[air pig]

Apart from closing the Straits of Hormuz, and the oil distribution network from the Gulf to the rest of the world, how about attacking the Emirate States ?? I suspect that Iran sees them as lesser adherents to Islam than they are. Saudi Arabia for allowing non Muslims to be stationed in the country which has two of the three holiest sites in the Islamic religion.
Qatar, which has a very high percentage of the world's natural gas supplies, and of course with tankers their old enemy, Israel.
Just having the ability to close the Gulf has the effect of stopping the world. Oil and gas in the quantities required can only be moved by tanker. Vulnerable, you bet.
Do not forget it was rumoured that the North Vietnamese had aircrew from overseas and who is to say the ex Russian aircrew would not work for the Iranian's for a serious amount of money. You only have to look at Flight International adverts for the sand pit on contract for fast jet aircrew for training units, does not take much to move in to a combat role.
The UAE air-force over recent years has upgraded with a massive spending spree at the arms bazzar's round the world.
With increase from the USA of defence aid to Egypt Israel and Saudi Arabia, this is ratcheting up the potential for conflict. Will Iran feel themselves threatened ??

You do not need to use aircraft to close the Gulf, just by using land based anti shipping missiles which Iran has, but aircraft give flexabilty
Mark D Only 2 countries with TLAMs, ergo GW III, Russians are not going to attack their customers.

[High_lander]

This thread here (http://www.airliners.net/discussions/military/read.main/10117/) on a 'rival' site seems interesting.

Although, that dutch fellow seems to have a grudge.

It does seem quite worrying though. Perhaps hypocritical that Israel are harping on, while they receive an increase in Military aid.


Will this increase the numbers of F-22As if deemed a credible threat

[herkman]

Is the SU30M, really as good as some people say.

I have seen a video of it flying, and doing great moves, but does that make it into a F22 compatable platform.

I presume that the Russians are pushing this airplane, into air forces that cannot get clearance for the later US types.

Anyone know how much is this real threat.

Regards

Col Tigwell

[air pig]

May not be as good as an F22A, but numbers have a quality, all of their own. You maybe able to shoot down six opponents but seven eight or nine can still get you.
Would the US, sell the F22 to anybody outside the USA? if not I would not like to bet on the outcome of 1v1 between an F15C and an SU30. That would possibly come down to either a BVR kill scenario or pilot skill in a close in fight.

Having seen Anatoli Kvachutur fly the SU27, in my opinion it would give an F15 a serious fight and I suspect even an F22 if the sukhoi has their version of thrust vectoring.

[Load Toad]

What acts of aggression have Iran so far carried out against the UK and / or NATO. I understand they are supposed to support the Shia insurgency in Iran yes? Who supports the Sunni insurgency & why is Iraq this massive flashpoint anyway? Is Saudi Arabia really a 'moderate' gulf state and what does moderate mean anyway?
Is a preventative war or pre-emptive strikes similar to waging an aggressive war?

They have more reason to be scared of us than we have of them and historically that would indicate things will go belly up and a whole bunch of people will die.

Nice eh?

[MarkD]

Comparison of aircraft v aircraft is all very well but have the Russians come closer to the West in terms of the command and control for the tankers and fighters than say prior to GWI?

[Wiley]

Do not forget it was rumoured that the North Vietnamese had aircrew from overseasYes, I recall those rumours doing the rounds of the OM bar in Tengah, and if there was any truth to them, (which there probably wasn't..... right?), the mother tongue of some of those "overseas" aircrew was not Russian nor Chinese.

[Track Coastal]

I understand they are supposed to support the Shia insurgency in Iran yes? Who supports the Sunni insurgency & why is Iraq this massive flashpoint anyway? Is Saudi Arabia really a 'moderate' gulf state and what does moderate mean anyway?

Al-Qaeda are Sunnis, Saudis are (Wahhabi-fundamentalist Sharia Law followers) Sunnis; Iran are Shia and export a large chunk of their black gold to China (whom they have big oil contracts with). Sunnis hate Shias and vice versa. China is expanding its military budget rapidly and is very dependant on oil imports. Regime change in Pakistan and/or Saudi Arabia would make it real interesting.

that would indicate things will go belly up and a whole bunch of people will die.


Yep (defence industries will make a quid tho).

[Squirrel 41]

It's not clear to me that Iran intends to attack anyone; this is a paranoid totalitarian regime that fears attack, and has clearly learned the lesson of North Korea: if the rest of the world thinks you're crazy and you have the bomb, they'll all leave you alone. QED, if your motive is regime survival then you go for the nuclear option as fast as you can.

Seen with Iranian eyes and paranoid outlook, they will see Israel and some American politicians publicly calling for Iran to be attacked, Condi Rice in town to call them terrible people and agree to sell USD20bn of weapons to the sunni Arab states and give USD30bn over the next ten years to Israel, already the regional superpower.

All of which may mean that if your goal is regime survival, you'll want to have the best defence you can get, and you'll go to the suppliers who will supply you - in this case, the Russians.

S41

[M609]

I agree with S41.

The US seems incapable of understanding the concept of having power without projecting it.

PS: Do you think George W can spell "arms race"? :rolleyes::rolleyes:

It's scary that the US give so much MIL support to this region, and especially since some of the rulers in some of the "moderate muslim countries" are on pretty much the same page as Al Q. in many cases.
The House of Saud has forgotten about all their old friends right? :cool:

[ORAC]

PS: Do you think George W can spell "arms race"?

audi Arabia Launches Huge Arms Buying Spree; France to Net Most Orders (http://www.defense-aerospace.com/cgi-bin/client/modele.pl?prod=71654&session=dae.21979467.1153752213.RMTclcOa9dUAAE0ACuQ&modele=feature)

PARIS --- The Saudi government last week agreed to purchase a total of 142 helicopters from France, in a deal that will modernize its military helicopter fleet at a single stroke and that, together with additional contracts to follow, firmly establishes France as the kingdom’s main weapons supplier.....

[Maple 01]

Interesting isn't it? A topic that highlights the ability of a very iffy but rich nation to buy in high tec weapons off the shelf and that totally vindicates the RAF's position in continuing with the purchase of the Typhoon because "you never know what's going to happen next" descends into the by now almost compulsory "slag off the US fest"

I'd really just like to see some of those "experts" that have called for the rundown of an AD capability say "sorry - we were wrong" and get themselves to a monastery for some self flagration - come on guys

[The Hook Hacker]

Good job the French have such well controlled Arms rules, they would never do anything without a Licence..... or answer B.

Watch for increased Tehran owned properties along the Riveria when this goes through, it would make sense to put them next door to the Saudi's who will be moving into their new Eurocopter houses soon!

Cheers, THH (packing for Sudan, I may be awhile! Boss said we'd be home for Christmas)

[ORAC]

Kommersant: ......At the end of last week, the popular Israeli Internet site Debka reported that Iran is signing a multibillion-dollar contract with Russia for the delivery of 250 Su-30MKM fighter planes and 20 Il-78MKM aerial refueling planes.........That same information was published in the influential Jerusalem Post on Monday.

The Israeli press reports caused consternation in Russia. “It's either a provocation or it's delusion,” Dmitry Shugaev, chief of staff of the Rosoboronexport general director told Kommersant.

A Sukhoi spokesman told Kommersant that “It is a provocation by the Israeli media. here are no negotiations with Iran for the delivery of fighter planes, much less such a huge lot.” Nor does the Russian Foreign Ministry or Defense Ministry know anything about them.

A high-placed representative of the United Aviation Construction Corp. told Kommersant that filling such a large order in the next few years would not be possible even theoretically. “There are only three plants in Russia that assembler fighter planes of the Su-30 type – in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, Irkutsk and Novosibirsk, and they are all engaged with orders. So there is no one to make 250 planes for Iran,” he said.

Independent experts also say that such an order is unfillable. “Even with good market conditions for oil prices, Iran isn't likely to come up with the necessary sum. Two hundred fifty fighters of the Su-303MKM type – that's about $10 billion,” noted Konstantin Makienko of the Center for the Analysis of Strategy and Technology.

[Load Toad]

>TC,
Thanks for your clarification.
I was just wondering where the black gold went from Iran before it went to China and who made sure it went west and how he got into power anyway and what he did when he was there.
You reap what you sow.
The Cold War never ended - The Great Game goes on - to the detriment of us all.

[Sunray Minor]

Green Flash,

It sounds like a very sensible plan from the Iranians. They already have a large but 2nd rate air force, and even if any guarantee was to be made by Tehran for not producing nuclear weapons, Iran would remain still a target of the US. It would be sound judgement to pre-empt this removal of nuclear capability with an increase in airforce capability. Air attack is where any assault on Iran is likely to materialise.

[ORAC]

Just as sensible for logistic reasons. If you look at the list of aircraft types they operate the spares and engineering support must be horrendous. let alone keeping aircraft like the F-14/F-4 flying with sanctions.

Rationalising fleets down to only 2 or 3 types and variants thereof such as the Mig-35, Mig-31 and SU-30/35 would only make sense.

[IcePaq]

Let's hope they are getting the planes for local action.

I'd hate to find out that they have harvested the strontium 90 out of a few soviet lighthouses in order to pull off a NOE attack on somebody.

http://www.bellona.org/english_import_area/international/russia/navy/northern_fleet/incidents/31772

[OFBSLF]

It's not clear to me that Iran intends to attack anyone;In recent years, Iran has been using its proxies to do most of the attacking. They are the major source of funds for Hamas and Hezbollah. So effectively, Iran is attacking Israel.

Syria is now effectively a client state of Iran.

Iran is supporting Shia militias in Iraq, which are attacking the US. Iran is also suspected of using its Quds force to kidnap and kill 5 US soldiers in a very sophisticated attack in Karabala, on January 20th.

Iran is already attacking several countries. Anyone who asserts otherwise just hasn't been paying attention.

[Squirrel 41]

OFBSLF:

In the words of a certain tv programme, "yes, but no, but yes but no."

The point here is that the current Iranian regime certainly has been supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon and insurgents of various stripes in Iraq and Afghanistan, and probably Hamas in the Occupied Territories as an asymmetric effort to counter what it sees as "Western / Zionist" hegemony in the Middle East, and more importantly what it sees as a series of attacks against Iran dating back to the 1979 "Islamic" Revolution.

This, in Iranian demonology, is directly traceable to the "Great Satan" of the USA, stemming from the US trade embargo, US actions against non-US firms trading with Iran (see, e.g. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3043498.stm or http://meria.idc.ac.il/journal/1999/issue3/jv3n3a5.html), and (again in Iranian eyes), US-sponsored effort to dismantle the Iranian Nuclear Programme. Against this, an asymmetric strategy such as the one that they've been employing is proportionate, sensible and cheap. (Especially since the US/UK have so thoughtfully put so many of their troops on the ground next door in Iraq and Afghanistan).

NONE OF WHICH EXCUSES Iran's actions in law.

But when the Tehran regime is faced with what it perceives - and can present to its' long suffering populace - as an existential threat to the State, then getting the equipment to deal symmetrically with the "threat" of an attack on its nuclear facilities is, seen from Tehran, sensible and proportionate.

So it is at least explicable that Tehran should turn to Moscow for FLANKER and MIDAS with open chequebook, even if we don't like it.

And for the conspiracy theorists out there, isn't it interesting that this report appeared in Israel just at the time the Israelis were being visited by Condi Rice and discussing a new weapons package....

Just my 0.02...

S41

[Load Toad]

Well yes - Operation Ajax...



But - Iran - OK - in the last say 50 years....how many countries has it attacked?

[IcePaq]

As a country or by proxy?

[BillHicksRules]

Icepaq,

As a country since it is the only indisputable measure.

Cheers

BHR

[Load Toad]

Because if it was 'by proxy' then we'd have to start counting other countries which have used 'by proxy' methods to attack people.

Then we might have a bit of a different image of things.

[Maple 01]

But - Iran - OK - in the last say 50 years....how many countries has it attacked?
Spot the false argument - unless the Shah and Peoples revolutionary council are one and the same, try 'What mischief has Iran caused since 1979?' Points will be deducted for apportioning all blame for the Iran-Iraq war to Mr S Hussein Esq

Still, I suppose it was all America's fault anyway :rolleyes:

[Load Toad]

OK so the answer to the question was. None.

What was false about the question? Explain yourself.

Last time I checked Iraq did start the Iran / Iraq war - oh - who was supporting Iraq at that time & why?

I won't deduct points or anything childish like that - just give me a convincing and credible argument that convinces me and I'll happily support it.

Now if we are talking about causing 'mischief' well there are a hell of a lot of governments we can take to task over 'mischief'.

[OFBSLF]

Squirrel41:

Might I suggest that you respond to what I wrote and refrain from making assumptions about what I believe? And thanks for the history lesson, but I'm well aware of the history of relations between the US and Iran.

If you reread my post (carefully, this time, please), you'll see that I wrote that Iran has attacked the state of Israel and US armed forces and is continuing to do so. Most of those attacks are through proxies but some have been direct attacks.

You'll see I made no statements about whether Iran's actions are justified or not, nor have I suggested what the proper response should be. Nor have I made any statement about Iran's aircraft purchase.

[Maple 01]

If you don't know the difference between Iran under the Shah and under the Ayatollahs there is no hope Toad

Points will be deducted for apportioning all blame for the Iran-Iraq war to Mr S Hussein Esq - if you can point to anywhere I said he didn't start it....

Who was supporting him? US with some int, France/West Germany/USSR with kit, training, Chemical & Bio weapons and int

Please don't make me get my who supplied who chart out again

Why the fanatical defence of the mad Mullahs?......oh wait......they are bravely standing against the great Satan like a beacon of…….something aren’t they?

[Load Toad]

I aren't defending anybody. I'm asking that information is presented fairly and is balanced.

As I've said before on similar threads to this - the moment anyone questions the accuracy of the information presented I (we) get accused of supporting terrorists / mad mullahs etc. Which I certainly don't.

Neither do I support State Terrorism nor decisions made because Corporate Media tells me things are so.