Fear of Pilots Shortage...

[tom19]

Found this on www.smh.com.au

Sure you would all be interested in reading...:uhoh:


Fear of pilots shortage

September 16, 2006

LEARNING to fly has become so expensive that Australia faces a big shortage of pilots, flying schools say. Foreign pilots will have to be imported for commercial and emergency services within a few years, they warn.

Pilots have to pay at least $60,000 to obtain a commercial licence - with no guarantee of an airline job - and aviation groups say a planned increase in control tower and pilot licence fees will make matters worse.

"In a very short space of time we're going to have a very acute shortage of pilots in this country," said Col Rodgers, of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association.

According to some estimates strong growth in the Asian airline industry will lead to a shortage of 10,000 commercial airline pilots in the region by 2010. That does not include a predicted shortage of flight instructors, charter pilots and regional airline pilots.

Ray Clamback, who has run a flying school at Bankstown Airport for about 40 years, said: "There's been a 50 or 60 per cent increase in the past two years. It wasn't long ago you would … pay $100 an hour to fly. Now we pay $170 and it drives people away."

Flying schools have been hit hard by rising fuel costs, and some have warned they could go broke if the Civil Aviation Safety Authority and Air Services Australia proceed with plans to raise charges. "The flying training industry on the east coast of Australia is on the verge of collapse," said Keith Robey, of Phoenix Aero Club at Hoxton Park Airport.

Mr Robey, whose club sold an aircraft to pay for a recent rent increase, blames the Federal Government for allowing the new private operators of Sydney's three main general aviation airports - Bankstown, Hoxton Park and Camden - to double rents.

"The Government's policy is absolutely ruinous," he said.

Mr Robey said it now cost $460 for a basic student licence. This did not include other fees, such as the $130 to process a medical certificate through the authority.

"If we discourage planning to fly, soon our supply of pilots will dry up and you soon will see your planes being flown by foreigners."

An instructor at Basair, Darrin Ward, said the cost of operating a small aircraft out of Bankstown had risen 143 per cent since the airport was privatised in 2003. Rising costs were undermining the country's reputation as the main flight training location in the Asia-Pacific region, he said.


:hmm:

[Artificial Horizon]

:} :} :} :O :O :O :) :) :) Ha Ha Ha, funniest thing that I have every heard, this must be why the interview offers are flooding in with my 3500 hours, 1000 medium jet, 1000 heavy turbo. Oh hang on, I can't even get my foot in the door because of all of the other guys out there who make my hours look pathetically small.

[160knots]

The only people who think there is a pilot shortage are the flying schools. The same people trying to generate new business. Salaries are abysmal and anybody wanting to take up flying now is either foolish or have too much money to waste. Unfortunately I am past my PNR.

[archangel7]

Well yes what did we all expect? and this is so true, the next 5 years will be exciting times. the pilot shortage is forcing airlines to look at a much lower level of experience for our prospective pilots then the 1500+hours recruitment. This could be good news in a way, but, is a Pilot shortage in Australia leading to GA crisis?

People are too discouraged to become pilots especially since other occupations offers better salaries and benefits, and..lets face it, the job prospects for airline pilots are much greater then what it is here. China will need approximately 10,000 new pilots in the next 15 years and lets not forget the rest of Asia. I know that we have talked for a long time about the potential for shortages and stretches to the truth.The pilot shortage is here as we speak! I remember reading an article a couple of months back that United Airlines was forced to cancel 186 flights across the U.S. because it had nobody available to fly the planes and there aren’t a sufficient number of reserve pilots available to help shoulder the load. The rate of movement at the moment is better then it ever was.

[Aussie_Pilot]

After 9/11 Aviation passed trough a very bad period, mostly Airlines such as Ansett in Australia, Swiss Air and Sabena in Europe, US Air in North America etc therefore Petrol price has terrible increase in the last years and according to experts prices are still going up...I Think that's the main reason flying school have increase their fares;

Now Thank God the situation is gonna change, 4 brand of New Aircraft are coming within the next few years (A380, B787, A350 and B747-8) and, according to recent news, around 200.000 pilots will be hired within the next 20 years...

Flight Training here is expensive, I will pay almous 60 KAUD as well, but if I took it in Italy I should pay 70UUR that mean 110,000 AUD... so I suggest to wannabes DON'T GIVE UP...

Shining Time is coming back
Good Luck
C.

[gas-chamber]

This subject has been done to death on threads elsewhere. There is no pilot shortage, and here in Oz there never will be because learning to fly here costs no more that a new up-market car. Plenty of wannabes will take flying lessons at that price and pay it back over the next ten years and drive an old banger instead of buying a shiny car. Like most of us did.
BUT not all these guys will get jobs, because there are only so many to be had at the entry level and in G.A. etc. This is not a growth market. That's the bit the flying schools tend to leave out.

But Captains with the right stuff as demanded by Chief Pilots, insurers, contracts etc is another matter. A shortage is already here and will remain until the wannabes come through the system and acquire the hours etc needed. That will take 5 years or more and meantime it will hurt operators who don't pay reasonable money as they will be competing against overseas operators who do. 60 year old pilots are already being asked to hang around for a few more years and a few others are drifting back from overseas looking for hobby jobs, but the Captain shortage is certainly becoming a problem.

[Aussie]

i cant wait to see this pilot shortage...

Aussie

[Friction Nut]

And what a joke... Basair is bigger now than what it ever has been. Occupying more buildings around the airport than ever. Having recently purchased multiple new aircraft, albeit cheaper to run.

Pilot shortage, my @&$#.

With you Aussie, cant wait to see it. Maybe then, just maybe those airline applications will have served there purpose.

[Chimbu chuckles]

Was perusing yesterday's The Australian aviation section enroute and cannot remember seeing as many pilot jobs advertised...particularly rotary wing.

The coming crunch for helicopter pilots is caused by an historic oversupply of chopper pilots caused by the Vietnam War...they are all retiring in a rush and precious little has ever been done to ameliorate that eventuality. Helicopter Operators the world over have enjoyed a 30 year period of plenty thanks to the massive training carried out by the military in the 1960s and 70s...they had very little need to employ low time pilots because there were many 1000s with large turbine helicopter experience. The relatively high cost of learning to fly rotary wing combined with the extreme difficulty finding decent work in the rotary field over the last 30 years, if you were a newbie civil chopper hopeful, now means that a cronic shortage is materialising at a rapid rate.

The fixed wing side has suffered all the same over supply problems for many of the same reasons but not to anything like the same extent...but it is coming too.

I suspect the big driver (one of at least) for lowered T&Cs from the likes of GD is a reaction to this outlook where T&Cs will be driven upwards...they are desperately trying to lower the starting point to alleviate their pain when the end game becomes obvious.

CEOs look at long term...5-10 yrs...the average pilot's idea of 'long term' is next year...It would not surprise me at all if airline management at airlines like QF know more about the looming aviation skills shortage than almost anyone else.

And why slag off aganst these operators at the entry level? New pilots have to come from somewhere...they are making perfectly valid points and it is at last getting into the mainstream media...don't knock it, embrace it.

[cunningham]

The industry will never have a shortage of applicants in general, but will I believe have a struggle attracting "the most suitable" applicants. Many of the more intelligent candidates will choose other careers which provide far more generous packages from day one. I understand as much as the next person that you don't need straight A's to fly an aircraft, however by maintaining such low educational standards, in comparison to other professions, you really are opening the door up for reduced pay levels. Nurses, teachers, accountants etc have quite consistent and generous packages because they are all required to hold formal and reasonably high education levels before they commence training. If accounting was opened to anyone with just a standard pass at senior, or even year 10, you would see the salaries tumble as people who previously couldn't enter the industry begin practicing. Now you don't need straight A's to become an accountant, I know this at first hand, but the pure fact that everyone who begins practice has above average grades ensures the generous renumeration packages are maintained. Professional and intelligent people generally seek high paying jobs, thats a fact. How many people did you go to school with who were in perhaps the top 30% of the class pursue careers which paid the national average? Now look at the "professional" industry in which we find ourselves. Pilots are falling over themselves to take jobs with piss poor CoS because many of them would be flat out getting a job doing anything else. I know this for a fact because many of the guys I have flown with have told me. If they were retrenched tomorrow many would be stuffed because they have such poor education. As a result, they are aware they are on a pretty good wicket so they will accept whatever CoS management choose to flush them. These pilots are the enthusists of the industry, not the professionals. Effectively they have no hand. I can't see the education criteria for the airlines changing so get used to being served up garbage pay rates.
People will always choose reduced conditions if its better than what they would normally be accustomed to.
Some of you people need to view your position as a profession which you are applying your skill, and demand to be renumerated for it, rather than skipping through the terminal in love with the thought you are going flying with the latest copy of Australian Flying and Aircraft Modeller stuffed under your arm.

[The Messiah]

Really though why would anyone in Oz put themselves thru all that expense and commitment when all that awaits them is Jetstar or Virgin Blue? I just don't think the carrot is big enough and a pilot shortage is likely in Oz in the next 10 years.

[neville_nobody]

I highly doubt that foreign pilots will be coming to Australia anywhere in the near future to fill commercial jobs. Given that the rest of the world gets by with minimum entry requirements that are basically half to 1/3 of what Australia's are maybe airlines just need to bite the bullet and lower the entry requirements. You can get interviews with regionals in the US with 1000TT and a hundred multi. Whereas in Australia you have to have 2000 TT and 700 Multi + to be considered competitive. (most of them want to see some charter time mixed in there as well) And this is for a job that pays on the whole less than $50 000 a year.
Cunningham I have met people who are highly skilled, multiple degrees always had top office jobs and are now busily undercutting all and sundry get where they want to be. As they are cashed up they can bypass alot of hurdles by just paying. Whilst I agree with your sentiments regard to education, enthusist are not necessarily just limited to those without the education to go anywhere else.

[Ultralights]

16 Yrs ago, i gained my PPL, 15 yrs ago, i gained my CPL, 15 yrs ago, there was going to be a critical pilot shortage......

[Shitsu_Tonka]

I think you are missing a valid point guys - the fleecing of GA by privatised airport owners, and the removal of airports all together by greedy councils who are breaching their obligations on the land use that was inherited from the Federal Government.

The so called user-pays fees are spiralling - with no interest what so ever from the Federal Government.

If their is no supply of local pilots to meet the airlines tight criteria, they are then permitted to recruit from overseas.

[archangel7]

I understand as much as the next person that you don't need straight A's to fly an aircraft, however by maintaining such low educational standards, in comparison to other professions, you really are opening the door up for reduced pay levels.

Have you tried to pass the CPL, IREX and ATPL subjects?... there are some things you'll need to do to become a pilot is neither easy nor simple. A pilot has to learn all his life, pass exams and flight tests, and has to go on flying all the time, so that he could extend his license type and experience. He has to be completely sound both mentally and physically and above all a pilot must "love" aviation and have a strong passion for flying as it is one of the essentials for a successful pilot.

Really though why would anyone in Oz put themselves thru all that expense and commitment when all that awaits them is Jetstar or Virgin Blue? I just don't think the carrot is big enough and a pilot shortage is likely in Oz in the next 10 years.

Mesiah..... You trully are the mesiah! Now thats what im talking about!

Tid Edit: A7, you obviously haven't taken time to read Danny's post. If you persist with slagging off at other contributors because you have a different point of view, your next ban will be permanent.

[Jimothy]

4-5 years ago when I was hunting around for an Airline job, I do not recall seeing anything like the number of jobs currently advertised. Just have a look at the job section on the Flight International website. Chimbu - I thought the same regarding jobs in The Australian yesterday. Maybe the tide is turning.

[N2O]

"An implication of this change in the age structure of the population that will increasingly attract the attention of the business community is the impact on the workforce. According to the Retirement Income Modelling Unit in Treasury (and ABS projections), the working age population currently grows by 180 000 each year. In the decade starting from around 2020 the working age population will only grow by 140 000 over the whole decade. Growth peaked in 1999 and from now on there will be steady decline in the rate of growth (Bacon 2000, p. 9)

as will labour force growth. ABS labour force projections anticipate a decline in growth of the labour force from 1.6 per cent in 1998-99 to 0.4 per cent in 2015-16 (ABS 2000c, p. 3)."
Source.

http://www.facs.gov.au/research/op02/sec3.htm

For the longer term thinkers, the Federal governments own analysis makes sober reading.


(http://www.facs.gov.au/research/op02/sec3.htm)

[M.25]

I understand as much as the next person that you don't need straight A's to fly an aircraft, however by maintaining such low educational standards, in comparison to other professions, you really are opening the door up for reduced pay levels. Nurses, teachers, accountants etc have quite consistent and generous packages because they are all required to hold formal and reasonably high education levels before they commence training.

Regardless of the entry criteria, it takes a certain level of intelligence to gain an ATPL and consistently pass the flight checks and renewals. The people that don't know what they are doing don't get too far.
A CPL is only a license to START training for an ATPL. I guess you could call it an educational requirement.
I have met teachers and nurses that would struggle at passing a PPL exam!


ps. Academic qualifications do not dictate your pay scale in any case. I watched a news clip the other day pointing out that the blue collar worker is the new wealthy class. They charge what they want and work when they want. Its all about supply and demand.

[novicef]

Higher entry academic levels would certainly reduce the numbers hoping to fly. However the present situation requires only finance to enter the industry.

As to passing the ATPL exams, well they aren't difficult. I have a Year10 education and have not had any difficulty passing so far.Those who do fail generally have to wait a week before being able to sit them again.

As far as instructors are concerned there is a huge surplus of instructors. Most schools are employing instructors on a casual basis.

I saw one school advertise instructor internships, I wonder what the catch is there. Perhaps the lady in the article, Wendy Dowe would like to comment. As far as schools poaching other instructors, well what do you expect, some schools pay them peanuts and threat them like s****t.

[Killer Loop]

I agree with Novicef on this. ATPL's were pretty straight forward! A week long course then do an exam, another week course then do another exam and so on. About eight to ten weeks and the whole lot is wrapped up. Even if you fail one you just throw a little bit more money at it and do it a couple of weeks later. One just had to look at some of the numb nuts on my course and see how they would pass with flying colours to illustrate how straight forward these exams really are. I hardly think this sort of academic entry level can be compared with that of doctors, vets or lawyers etc.

[A37575]

Saw this is the Sunday Age.

Dear Sir,
The article "Pilot - Drain the new aviation crisis" (Sunday Age 27/8) is stretching the truth. First of all there is no retirement age limit for pilots in Australia and in fact there are experienced and fully licenced former airline pilots languishing in the suburbs who would be only too happy to fly for the airlines given the opportunity. These are pilots forced out of flying because of the age 60 rule in countries other than Australia and New Zealand. But try getting a job in Australia if you are over 60 and you have Buckley's chance. One small charter operator in Melbourne operating twin engine jets recently had 250 applications for six jobs.

There are also several thousand of the 33,000 active commercial pilots mentioned in your article, that cannot get a job in Australia because there are not enough vacancies to go around. The experience level called for in the jobs that are available is too often artificially high, forced to some extent by exhorbitant insurance rates but mainly because there are more pilots than jobs. Australian pilots once flocked to jobs in Papua New Guinea where historically, newly qualified pilots were welcomed. Those avenues of employment have in the last twenty years changed markedly to the point where only experienced pilots can get a job flying the smallest of aeroplanes. Again this is due to high rates of insurance but mainly because there is no shortage of pilots in Australia and the PNG operators can pick and choose from hundreds of applications from the mainland.

While there may well be a shortage of experienced pilots in Asia, very few jobs are available for Australian pilots because understandably Asian countries prefer local hiring. Ironically Australian flying schools are churning out Asian pilots to fill these vacancies. At the same time charter operators, regional airlines, RDFS and the major airlines continue to knock back thousands of applications from young commercial pilots simply because there is a limit to the number of jobs available and they can afford to set the bar too high to get a job. The so called pilot shortage in Australia will remain an enduring myth

[Lodown]

I would have thought another issue is one of retaining pilots.

The pilots who don't make the airlines or can't get a turbine seat for whatever reason don't get a decent paycheque and have nothing to stay in the industry for. There's no soft landing for any commercial pilot without an aviation job! It's accepted by any new pilot that low wages are the norm for a few years, but family aspirations put the sword to any long term career in any part of GA while waiting for that turbine/airline job. The cost to remain current without an aviation job is high and the cost to get back into the swing of things after several years away is prohibitively expensive for many. Don't even get me started on the impact of continuous rule changes. There just isn't that many people these days who will make a gamble on initiating or restarting an aviation career when they see the airlines attacking T & C's with such gusto. Until a perceived attractive career path is re-established there won't be the necessary people making the financial and personal committment towards a commercial aviation career.

As for private pilots...there are many advantages to the private pilot route, particularly as disposable income is so high, but between a doomsaying adventurer killing any aspect of fun and prestige, a GA group in the past that has only wanted to use the industry as a pawn for personal egos and conquests by choosing battles at whim with anyone and anything regarded as being in government, and aviation businesses that have bleeded basic business acumen, these advantages have become forgotten and unannounced. The whole reason and joy behind private flying has become lost in an age of cost recovery, user pays, finger pointing and personal point scoring. Is there anyone who still promotes the fun of private flying?

To me, it appears like the whole aviation industry has become one confounded by short term proponents. It might be too late now to impact the initial fallout, but put some measures in place to retain and highlight affordable and rewardable involvement in the industry and the coming fluctuation might resemble a rumble rather than an implosion.

[-b-lokie]

I totally agree with LoDown. I have not even got into the industry, just finishing up my degrees, and I'm alreayd looking down other avenues rather than flying to my dismay. I won't elaborate much cuz lodown did a wounderous job of what I have to say anyways but why would or how could anyone justify spending the money it takes to start a flying career when there is no job guarantee in the end. With doctors, lawyers etc, your guaranteed an income of 100,000+ (well at least with a doctor) /yr and you've essentially spent the same amount of money. Now the knowledge obtained is a huge factor but I bet on a daily basis any commercial pilots deals with more ppls lives than any doctor ever could in a given year.
Unfortunately, in a couple years after giving up on my dream and becoming a corporate monkey flying on private planes and feeling sorry for the pilot whose spent his lifetime getting to where he is and at that point he probably won't even be making the amount of money ppl are paying in income taxes! I also think ppl who say "your not flying for the right reasons, money shouldn't be your reason" is bullsh*t, your not happy when you can't pay your flight school bills!

[AllInGoodTime]

My 2 cents for what it is worth!

I have read enough on this forum, received responses from threads I have posted and spoken to friends in the industry to be fairly confident in saying, it is very unlikely that there is ever to be a shortage of Pilots in OZ. There certainly maybe in Asia, and this may take some of the more experience pilots from Oz, but when they are ready to return to Oz they will be lining up at the door of QF, Virgin, J* etc, and those Aust airlines will be more than happy to take on those guys with Jet experience. What I am saying is there will be a cycle of pilots going off shore, get more experience and then get into the Australia airlines when oppotunities exist. Hence, can't really see any shortage here, espeacially for low hour pilots. Not too say that there isn't some movement in the industry, but it always has been and will be cyclical in aviation. I know of med to high hour guys, stuck in GA, or regionals that can't get a look in either here or in Asia. Give it a go by all means, I am all for a healthy industry, I would just hate for people to get unrealistic expectations from what I believe to be slightly inaccurate reporting.

Just a touch of reality, not meaning to be all doom and gloom but some info from my experience. I haven't flown commercially for a couple of years now, but when I last did the company I flew for had 6 base pilots. Out of that 6 only 2 have managed to get into the airlines in OZ and stay in the industry. The other 4 including me are not currently in the industry. Out of that 4 the lowest hours were about the 1000 hr mark, and they highest 4500 hr mark. This is not too say for everyone reading the article in the paper, they shouldn't be positive about it, certainly reads better than saying there is an over supply of pilots. I would just ask all who do read it to Please keep some perspective on the real situation, because I don't think we are near a time where there is a critical shortage.

[Chimbu chuckles]

Well I have some news for you....this is as good as it gets.

It has always been the survival of the most bloody minded....note I didn't say smartest, best, or most naturally talented.

Two huge differences between now and 20+ years ago when I was a newly minted CPL?

2/. Lots of jobs everywhere
3/. A place, Pprune, where those less driven can congregate and seek sympathy.

There is a message for those who do not make it in the climate of the last 10 years.

You picked the wrong career. You were possibly a reasonable pilot in all respects but the one that counts...that 'it' factor.

The most fundamentally important part of the 'it' factor is you just don't give up and leave the industry. If job progression is not happening in Australia you go where ever your level of experience dictates...that might mean darkest Africa or PNG and then you just stay there until you break into jets/airlines there...and then you see where that takes you in the world. Family does not intervene nor a new car, nor anything else that distracts....particularly not girlfriends...if they are not with the program they get dumped.

If that is unacceptable on any of the numerous levels things like that could be deemed unacceptable then tough...you didn't want to fly badly enough...you didn't have 'it'.

So move on and see what you do have the 'it' factor for.

Anyone who comes into this industry thinking the only worthwhile job is QF or jets is almost certainly bound for dissappointment if they stay in Australia...it has been ever thus:ugh:...at least 9 out of 10 people who start out with that goal don't succeed.

I would go as far as to suggest that if you learn to fly to be a Qantas pilot you started with the wrong motivation.:=

If you think I am being harsh and that you should have been able to get a job flying for QF, VB or whomever just because you meet or exceed their minimum requirements you truly miss the point.

[AllInGoodTime]

Hi Chimbu

Not wishing to get into an argument with you and complete respect as you are an ATPL flying jets, and I am as I stated not in the industry and as you have stated I am one without the "it" factor. I can assure you I tried very hard and long in this country, I wasn't in a postion where overseas was an option for me. I tried and partly succeded here getting into charter. I believe I did better than 50% of who qualified with me at the same time in that I actually reached a full time position for a time. I made my choices and I have now taken a different path with my career, where I don't get treated like sh*t by every GA operator I either worked for or tried to get work with. I now get paid well in a regular hour job, in an interesting field, not one that I am passionate about but more than happy to do as my life style is now normal and not dictated by a dream and lifestyle that is not real anyway. I admit I am standing by the sidelines making comment now, but I have been in the game before, have mates still in the game and as stated out of the game and I think I have a reasonable feel for the industry. I still feel that "THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF LOW TIME PILOTS IN THIS COUNTRY AND THE NEVER WILL BE". Yes the time maybe great O/S, but not everyone is in a position to move O/S.

Back to my point, the article in question had a serious bent towards a shortage at some point in this country. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN. The only shortage I hear of is for instructors, and that is the top end of instructing at grade 2 and above.

[Chimbu chuckles]

Don't get me wrong allingoodtime...I think it is great that you have found an alternative and I hope you're truly happy...and I hope you earn enough to fly for fun if you so wish.

My success is about 90% bloody minded and 9% luck,1% talent...I am where I am because it's ALL I ever wanted and I am hopeless at all other methods of making a living...I get depressed (I am being serious) if I can't fly. If I wasn't in jets I would happily be flying RFDS, Coastwatch or in a war zone in Africa...in fact to be perfectly honest one day I will go back to that because Jets are NOT the reason I learned to fly.

I learned to fly because it is a living and breathing passion that goes beyond all reason...one of the first things I said to my ex wife was don't ever make me chose because you WILL lose...that aint why we are divorced...she left for another pilot:ok: ...but if it was a factor I could care less:E

In my view anything less than the above level of committment moves the % of luck required a long way up the scale.

And I agree entirely with you and have said as much myself many times on this forum...there has never been and will never be a shortage of 'pilots' in Oz. There is a world wide shortage of experienced pilots. A % of pilots in Australia will benefit from that and a MUCH LARGER % will not...that is just the way it is.

[AllInGoodTime]

Chimbu

I think we are in agreement. Sorry for the shouting, I agree with you, maybe I just didn't have the same level of bloody mindedness in the end, maybe at the start of the whole process, but by the end no, I was just sick of it all.

We agree no shortage here and yes it part maybe O/S.

Chimbu goodluck with the rest of your flying, hope it brings happiness to you that in the end it didn't to me.

[archangel7]

Chimbu,

My success is about 90% bloody minded and 9% luck,1% talent...I am where I am because it's ALL I ever wanted and I am hopeless at all other methods of making a living...I get depressed (I am being serious) if I can't fly. If I wasn't in jets I would happily be flying RFDS, Coastwatch or in a war zone in Africa...in fact to be perfectly honest one day I will go back to that because Jets are NOT the reason I learned to fly.


Excellent!! that's exactly how I feel...

[Lodown]

Just a differing opinion to several posters above. Without data, I'm probably p1ssing in the wind, but just a feeling makes me think this time we are heading for a pilot shortage. (Perhaps someone with more time on their hands and better research skills can post the relevant data.) Great for pilots. Bad for employers. The current aviation climate is different from past events and I think it is unwise to dismiss pilot training schools' claims as just more marketing rhetoric. My reasons are several including what was written on my previous post about retaining commercial pilots and their skills and encouraging private aviation.

First, there isn't the same situation of ex-military pilots available to join the civilian life like there was after WW2 and Vietnam.

Second, the pilot retention rate within airlines does not seem to be as strong as in the past creating a very fluid employment pool. Large numbers of pilots can move with relative ease between the highest bidders. This is of little concern to an employer with a surplus of pilots in the market, but is completely the opposite if there's a shortage.

Third, the perceived difference in pilot rewards (not just money) and rewards gained from other careers is not as marked as it once was, and it could be argued, has actually swung the other way to favour the 9 to 5, 5 day workweek with weekends off. With plenty of jobs available in the cities, not as many of the current generation see the bush as a necessary component in gaining experience, so they are passing the aviation career opportunities. It's a more materialistic generation now and they don't want to waste time in hotels when they could be home enjoying the fruits of their labour.

Fourth, tertiary education has become more important for all careers and part of the outcome is that graduates have more choice in careers and in moving between careers. What I'm trying to highlight in my post above is that once they get out of aviation, they're gone for good. What a waste of talent! The 'it' you speak of Chimbu carried a lot of weight with our generation. The reward for 'it' is being found in many non-traditional ways by the Y generation, particularly in careers outside of an employer/employee arrangement, and it's unfortunate that general aviation hasn't been able to tap into the disposable income that this has produced in a very beneficial or effective way. Not many of the Y generation (or is it the 'Now' generation?) see 'it' as being necessary when working for someone else.

Fifth, the population bell curve peak for western countries is rapidly passing into retirement meaning more retirees being supported by less workers. We're heading into a decade or two of worker shortages in all industries, not just aviation. If aviation does not remain competitive as an employing industry, it stands to lose more than most.

Sixth, there is a greater awareness in the community of getting a return on investment, risk and the careers which provide the most for one with the least of the other. Flying doesn't stack up well on these metrics.

Taken individually, these reasons don't amount to much. Combined, I think they may have a considerable effect. A love of flying is one reason for many to be in aviation, but it is only one reason among a multitude of reasons for many other pilots, each with different priorities. The difference between a surplus and shortage is often only a matter of degrees and I think we are starting to see that shift now, but it might not be apparent for another five or so years on the flight line. We're starting to see a little with the 'pilot wanted' ads in the paper. It might be experienced pilots in demand at present, but I expect this to shift to a demand for pilots at all levels relatively soon and particularly in mid-level GA positions (Grade 1 and 2 instructors and IFR twin drivers) as jet operators seek pilots with less qualifications to fill positions. From what I've read, student pilot numbers are well down on those 10 or 20 years ago.

I suspect that in the current climate, if we project lines on a graph out to 10 or 20 years, the line titled, "Pilots Available" would be seen crossing under and diverging well below the line titled, "Pilots Required". Market forces will make the adjustment and a little pilot shortage might be a good thing. But a more intense pilot shortage could hurt the industry. What I have tried to add to the discussion is that there are many pilots who have left the industry and because of the barriers to re-entry, will not be coming back. If or when there is a protracted pilot shortage, the cost to the employer and therefore the consumer, is going to be doubly high. It means having to wait years to build up a pool of experienced pilots as new pilots have to be attracted and trained.

Only too happy to say I was wrong if reality proves me so. In the meantime, I'm just adding to the rumour mill by expressing an opinion.

[N2O]

Right on the money Lodown.
Following your logic a little bit further, should there be a vitriolic campaign in the media, it just reinforces to potential pilots that the risk of entering the industry is increasing.
This is the paradox for managers, the more successful their public campaign to bash pilots, the greater their problems in the medium to longterm.

[albanianpilot737]

It is funny how eveyone keeps saying that it is going to be Pilot shortage but i know a lot of pilots that starting from 500 to 3000 hours can hardly find a job and all of the sudden there is a pilot shortage and i liked the comment i can not remeber who said it but it was in this page and he said '' It is funny the only people that think that there is a pilot shortage are the aviation school'' I wish i will see that but i truly doubt it :D :D :D

[Bendo]

I got out of the industry after Ansett - too many pilots available at my level (twin IFR Charter) and wise, I thought, to let the dust settle.

I kept instructing about 300 hours/year and I am working in the mining industry earning over $2,000/week for my 40 hours. Yes it is dirty and yes there is shift work... but it is also quite technical in parts and reasonably challenging.

With bu99er-all experience or qualifications I am earning close to that which the Mining Engineers are paid, and I go home each night without worrying about work. It is true for many professions - an old girlfriend is an Elec. Engineer and she designed & certified much of the lighting around the Olympic site in Sydney... AND YET she is paid half the salary of the tradesmen who installed it.

Is there a shortage of experienced pilots? Well after 5 years of applications I am suddenly getting offers of interview with those Regionals I always wanted to fly for. There is nothing about my application that has become more competitive - what other reason than a shortage of experienced drivers? :rolleyes:

Will I uproot my family and leave the town that has become home (not to mention the reMUNeration), merely to drive turboprops, on the gamble that it might lead further up the tree? :ugh: :( :{ ... go from $120k in the country to $45k in Sydney? :ouch:

The only reason employers look for an abiding love of flying and aviation in their pilots is so they can continue to push you harder for less money.

To her credit, the cook has said "yes we will go" but is this what a 'real' man would do? Subject his family to near-poverty and the uncertainty that is an aviation "career"? :* The computer says....

[N2O]

... go from $120k in the country to $45k in Sydney? .
Ask for more money! You are in a good bargining position. You have a steady job that pays almost three times what they are offering. You don't have to except ANY job just to eat- They don't have you over the proverbial barrel! Plus you are getting enough flying to keep current.
If your hunch is correct about the shortage you might be able to get a better offer in the future...
Seriously, $45K to live in Sydney, you will experience a quantum DECREASE in you lifestyle, so that in 2 or three years you may get lucky in a job that will not even pay what you are on now. Add in the pay for your own training. You will still be way behind. Remember in aviation, it is the family that pays the real price, not the pilot.

[Much Ado]

I doubt things are that desperate in the regionals yet...they do not need to risk pissing off every other pilot in the company just to get Bendo.

Bendo it is completely your decision but perhaps if you look at the regional job as a stepping stone to a better paid airline job, overseas if necesary, it won't seem so much like turning off the money permanently?

That you even ask the question, and have been applying to flying jobs all this time, suggests you know the answer already...perhaps its not just about money?

Beside you would have saved a reasonable proportion...enough to cushion the sideways step a while...and you can always come back to what you are doing now...best of luck:ok:

[Hugh Jarse]

Ask for more money! You are in a good bargining position. You have a steady job that pays almost three times what they are offering. You don't have to except ANY job just to eat- They don't have you over the proverbial barrel! Nitrous, the problem with asking for more money is that most regionals operate under a certified agreement, often paying above award (is there such a thing now?) At the moment the shortage isn't too serious at entry level, and therefore non-negotiable. A new recruit entering as a FO still has zero bargaining power because there are other applicants on the hold file. The only exception is if the applicant were to be hired in a dual role for which they hold specialist skills.

The story is different for, say direct entry C&T captains outside the regional environment.

That puts guys like Bendo in a quandry. Bendo has enough knowledge of, and time in the industry to be able to put the emotional side of "needing/wanting" to fly into perspective, when considering the impact of such a huge pay cut on not only himself, but his family.:ok: The truth is that earnings in the order of $120k+ is many years away. And it's unlikely to ever be achieved by a line pilot in a regional outfit.:{

Having been through a similar situation, I doubt I'd take the same path if I had my time over. My family has been through hell. They deserved better.

Tell you what Bendo: I'll swap ya :E

[M.25]

If there ever is a shortage, it will be because the risk/work vs reward ratio has become ridiculous (we are already starting to see this trend). This is obviously not a good thing. There is a very good reason why people aren’t attracted to the industry anymore. Whilst airlines become less attractive everyday, other industries continue to become more attractive. Although some people don’t like to believe it, there actually is life outside of aviation.:eek:


We're heading into a decade or two of worker shortages in all industries, not just aviation. If aviation does not remain competitive as an employing industry, it stands to lose more than most.


Agreed:ok:

[mattyj]

"fear of pilot shortage"

Whos afraid? I'm not afraid..are you?:confused: :confused:

[Chimbu chuckles]

Bendo check your PMs:ok:

[Xcel]

There may never be much of a problem, as the need increases the minimums will drop. at the moment the minimums remain relatively the same so the need mustnt be as dire just yet.

just check job advertisements to verify.

recent jobs,

2 chief pilot jobs both requiring only minimum 500 hours TT.
Instructor jobs dropped from grade 1 to grade 3 required.
now non discriminitive jobs with no benchmark are appearing.

come out bush and you will see how fast people are running through the usual steps.

i remember when i first came out here you needed 25 hours on 210 and 500 hrs min. now you get CP with that only need CPL and can drive a bus to get work.

plenty around if you look and feel there may be some problems in the future.

average age for rotary, LAME and Fixed wing has now increased 0.5 yrs of age per yr for last few years. now at 45-50. wait the next ten and see the need increase and mass retirements will multiply the problem exponentially.

maybe we need another vietnam or war to overcome it, thats the only thing that covered the aviation industry in the past...

[BackdoorBandit]

Considering that Oz has been such a prolific exporter of pilots to the rest of the world, I fail to see how we are going to be an importer of pilots.

The rest of the world will be critically short of pilots before the Australian majors or regionals even have to advertise for them.

When they have to start advertising for them, we may, just may, see an improvement in our conditions of employment.

[Jarule]

Pilot shortage.........Never in a million years.

If any one thinks there is ever going to be a shortage then you are very much mistaken.

The dream of flight is as old as mankind itself. The pilot recruiters know this fact only too well. The only labour shortage in the aviation (pilot) industry is that of experience. This is another fact that empoyers also know very well, as the cost of training puts a massive hole in their profits.

By the very fact that you are reading these culumns is testement that may years ago your dreams were stolen by the magic of flight (myself included). There is no hope for us. There are the lucky few that have managed to find a way to make enough money to fly as much as they like and not have to suffer working in the industry, John Travolta is a perfect example...even our own David Lowe....and not forgetting our dear Dick Smith. We are all probably secretly jealous of the above mentioned honorable gentlemen. They don't have to pilot aircraft themselves, they can afford to pay someone else to do it for them.....but do they?

What's "it" all about?..........The dream of flight!
I rest my case.

[Capt Wally]

......................explain this to me like i'm a 6 yr old somebody!.............my work colleges (all ATPL drivers) are more than qualified to fill any right hand seat (at first) in any modern day heavy turbo jet but none of late have been able to get employment with any of the regionals or major players, some are even uni educated with various degrees in aviation etc............. yeah sure there is a shortage of pilots in Oz (there may well be in the future but not in our lifetime!) .......just let me know where this shortage exists & i'll tell at least half a doz guys here where to go for that so called pilot seat that can't be filled !

Capt Wally:-)

p.s.............and who are these guys currently employed by now?......ahhhh nobody of any importance obviously to the airlines but I think the Co. is called the RFDS !!!!........go figure !

[Aerodynamisist]

After reading the thread on pay and conditions for a flight training school (
http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?t=244474 ) I'm starting to think that a pilot shortage would be the best thing that ever happened to this industry.

Bendo can you get me a job in the mines, I have some relevant experience.

[Bendo]

Seriously...

...if you are interested in making a few bucks, PM me and I will point you in the right direction(s) for jobs in the NSW or QLD coalfields. We are crying out for arms and legs. A warning: once you start taking the cash, it is very very hard to go back!


I have often thought, as I watched the "old fashioned" miners dodge work like 14-year-olds dodging school :hmm: and stretch 30 minutes crib time out to 2 hours or more :ugh: , that a bunch of under-employed, intelligent and motivated pilots might do well in the contracting game :}

I have no knowledge or experience of hard rock (Gold etc) .. sorry. I am sure there are others out there who might help in that regard. :ok:

[Jarule]

It seems to me that the problem begins with the business plan of a low cost carrier.
Example business plan:-
Q? How much do the magority of australian citisens have to spend on air travel?
A. Very little

So. lets take very little and times it by the No. of seats on our aircraft.
Now. Take away the fuel costs.
And. not forgetting paying the share holders and board of directors.

Of whats remaining we have to pay for as little maintenance as we can get away with not forgetting compliance with the regs and a few other things.

Now. Lets see how much we have left to provide for pay, conditions and training for our employees....... This means that we can't employ any one that has experience because we have to pay them more.
How about this for the clincher! We actually save money and even make some money out of employing young inexperienced pilots that will pay for their own training.....I am a genius, I should be on the board of directors!

How am I going so far Capt W.

[N2O]

Now. Take away the fuel costs...

.... This means that we can't employ any one that has experience because we have to pay them more.
The obvious implication of the second statment is that the experience level of the crew has no zero effect on the operating cost of the operation. If the experience of crew can save more than they cost this is not correct.
Look as Southwest. They only employ pilots how have college degrees for a reason. Their logic is to get the best people they can...
They have a proven profitable model over a much longer period of time than any other LCC, in the most competitive aviation market in the world. I think they might have a clue how to do it.

[Jarule]

N20. By experience I really meant flying experience.

My post was a generalisation, and was mainly aimed at why the abundance of mature and experienced pilots aren't being employed as FO's, RE:Capt Wallys post, againsed the claimed pilot shortage. Also the rediculous notion that pilots are forced to buy thier jobs.

Put Simply:- Why pay a highly experienced Capt to fly with a Highly experienced FO when you can employ a low experienced (low paid) FO?

But the point that experienced pilots usually save the company money is perfectly valid, and would definitely be part of my business plan should I one day make the board.


BTW. At the risk of hijaking the thread. I think that a college degree which has a pass mark of only 50% really doesn't hold up that well againsed an ATPL pass at 75%.
I suggest if you wish to reply to my last comment you may wish start a new thread

[N2O]

N20. By experience I really meant flying experience.
My post was a generalisation, and was mainly aimed at why the abundance of mature and experienced pilots aren't being employed as FO's, RE:Capt Wallys post, againsed the claimed pilot shortage. Also the rediculous notion that pilots are forced to buy thier jobs.

Its a mystery to all of us. "life" experience is an asset, not a liability. I know who I would prefer to have in the flightdeck. Would an accountant see it this way?

[Joker89]

I wouldn't normally post on a thread such as this as I am not a professional pilot. However I am currently awaiting an offer from the RAAF to join up as a pilot for 12 odd years.

Currently I work in an extremely over paid office job for which the only joy is 1 day a month which is pay day.

I work something like 60 hours per week for a 6 fig salary but have no interest is wasting any more of my time purely for $$$.

If I do end up entering the RAAF for pilot training, it will not be so I can receive "free training", after all 12 years commitment is hardly free.
When my "time" is up I would sooner continue in defence force or use the skills I have learnt for a position within the defence industry.

I think I would rather that than be forced to be a FO with a freight company etc for about $100k per year.

Where I stand now I cant believe that there are so many willing to invest Hundreds of thousands in training where the starting salary is so low and the road to success so biased towards experience over individuals (from what I have learned).

Surely the problem is that everyone with 1500 hours and an ATPL is classed as equal when reality is far from the case. If I was forced to "wait in line" in my current career I would never have got to where I was and would have left a long time ago.

My question is, should there be more aptitude testing and team work/management assessment used before people are awarded commands and entry into the airlines?

I guess the main probem is that its about the only job people can "buy" themselves into.

[404 Titan]

Joker89

My question is, should there be more aptitude testing and team work/management assessment used before people are awarded commands and entry into the airlines?
This is exactly what they do in the airline I work for.
I guess the main probem is that its about the only job people can "buy" themselves into.
You can't buy yourself into the decent airlines. For them it's a matter of knowing your stuff, performing on the day and selling yourself at the interview, not how fat your wallet is.

[N2O]

My question is, should there be more aptitude testing and team work/management assessment used before people are awarded commands and entry into the airlines?

I think very few in the "privateer" (non cadet/ military) training industry would tell someone that they lack "Right Stuff" to progress to an airline job. This poor sod represents cash flow for the aeroplane owner & training organisation as well as logbook experience for the instructor. He is to be milked for every penny (cynical I know).
The airlines seem to have a reasonable success rate with choosing their cadets, as do the miltary. Their selections systems could be implemented, by the privateer industry, but would they tell the truth?
Bottom line, its not in their financial interest to do so. Life would be so much easier for many if the harsh reality was faced before they spent dollar one.
Just my 2 cents worth.

[Joker89]

Joker89


This is exactly what they do in the airline I work for.

You can't buy yourself into the decent airlines. For them it's a matter of knowing your stuff, performing on the day and selling yourself at the interview, not how fat your wallet is.


Good to hear, Guess I have read to much of the J* whinging threads

I think very few in the "privateer" (non cadet/ military) training industry would tell someone that they lack "Right Stuff" to progress to an airline job. This poor sod represents cash flow for the aeroplane owner & training organisation as well as logbook experience for the instructor. He is to be milked for every penny (cynical I know).
The airlines seem to have a reasonable success rate with choosing their cadets, as do the miltary. Their selections systems could be implemented, by the privateer industry, but would they tell the truth?
Bottom line, its not in their financial interest to do so. Life would be so much easier for many if the harsh reality was faced before they spent dollar one.
Just my 2 cents worth.

And that seems to be the main problem, too much incentive to keep people who will not make the grade in training, and the pilots who have got waht it takes need to compete with them on the entry level jobs which pushes the wages down as supply out weighs demand.

[Capt Wally]

.............interesting how everybody here has different ideas as to what pilot shortage means & it's effects on an individual. Fair enough to all with opinions here & it's healthy to have a say & debate on all things unknown to us in the gray area of pilot shortages........but the bottom line to all of this (my opinion only) is the fact that whether yr a young pilot, old pilot or somene in between experienced or otherwise the airlines need pilots to sustain their buisness, growth is always there. Their future as in the share holders that make up a listed Co. need to constantly look at ways to reduce costs (QF's Jeff Dixon knows this very well as we all have heard of late) so in order to do just that they manipulate, trim back, the only variable thing that makes up the bottom line of any sound business plan ...................& that's the 'human' element of that bottom line, i.e.........wages & conditions etc, fuel, maintenance & other general running costs are mostly worked out (as accurately as possible) that make up the direct running costs of an aviation related business so hence we now have these days the requirment that most newby pilots pay for their own endorsements. There might seem to be a current pilot shortage but that just seems to be the case, we all educated pilots know better 'cause we've done the right thing, gone out & accumulated experience as was once the required way of doing things but now we find that the experience now works against most. These Co's can pick & choose whom they want, for now !......... these pages attest just to how many pilots are actually out there able to do their bidding for them at the pointy end of their planes just that these Co's want their cake & eat it to, (there is a wage structure in place with all these Co's, experience level or not) that comes at a cost, we shall see that cost imerge as we hear more & more in the cockpit recordings on todays modern jets..................."what's it doing now " !!!................experience is not negotiable.....

............Capt wally's personal views only guys/gals :-)