Silent Skies

[speechless1]

Is General Aviation dying? What with airfields being closed, (Cambridge next?), rising fuel prices, the environmentalists damning aviation as the primary culprit to global warming and the cheap alternative in the form of flight simulator programs for pc`s, will our skies fall silent?
Cessna and Piper report sales of new aircraft in Europe as `flat`. Airfields close down to become car parks or building land and flying hours are dwindling away, despite the efforts of new publications such as `Loop` trying to encourage interest. This August saw our flying school hours 30% down on the worst year on record.
How are other schools fairing around the country? What do you see as the primary causes of this demise? Or, if you do not see an effect, what are you doing right?

[the dean]

i fly in a group not a flying club but in ireland from what i can see...never busier....despite fuel costs....;)

[orionsbelt]

Tend to agree with speechless1, August was very slack, we had some Sundays where Instructors had No bookings. Very few new starters this year and those that do seem to drop out before solo. Think we have had 2 fuel related rates increases this year. I used to tell Trial Lessons that the total cost to gain a JAA PPL was around £7000 Now I say £8000 all in.
The one thing I think that will stop me flying is the cost of maintaining CPL / FI. Everybody else is increasing there charges but my flight wages have stayed the same for the past 5 Years at £10 per hour. For me this year I have to find the following:- CPL Renewal £119, FI Seminar £225 (or flight test £200 +A/C Hire ) plus overnight stay and travel, 2 X Class 1 medicals at £150 -£190 each, IMC Renewal at £150 A/C hire +examiner fee, AOPA Membership £55. AvBrief subscription £60, plus accountants fees of £300+vat and petrol cost for 60 miles a day home to Airfield travel. At best I fly 280 hours a year and those cost represent around 150 hours flying spread over 3 (5) years.
I Have been flying for over 40 years and observed the number of licence issues drop from around 10,000 p/a to around 3000 p/a now.
The regulators are continually enhancing there own status at our expense, CAA. JAA and now ESA what on earth will all these people do.
The wannabe 's going the self improver route from small clubs seem to be drying up due to cost, reduced Military requirements and Airlines running sponsorship schemes.
Now add Mode S, the growth of short haul traffic, and Airfields as brown field sites and its RIP light aviation.
Cheers Orion:

[Needlesplit]

Do you think its that no one has time to fly anymore because they miss too much on PPrune if they go out?:E

[Esperanza]

The school that I work for has become noticeably busier over the last couple of years. Therefore it's not all "doom and gloom" in the GA world.
We're currently fortunate enough to be booked solid for at least a month in advance at any given time. Weekends are always exceptionally busy. I've currently got approximately 35 full-time (once every week or so) PPL students; and over the last four weeks I've achieved 80 hours of flight training.
I believe our success is due to a number of factors:
1) A very good catchment area.
2) Career instructors. We get a fair amount of business through "word of mouth".
3) We're delivering JAR PPL courses in Cessna 152's for between £5000- £5500 (including books, examiner fees, etc).
The only downside to our success is that one of the reasons that we're cheaper than some other schools is possibly down to the fact that the word "pay rise" isn't often heard. Therefore, as instructors we're possibly subsidising the courses. But we are busy, and therefore making money. I guess it all comes down to whether you want to be very busy while earning £15/ hour or dead quiet while earning £25/ hour? All I know is that given half a chance I would rather be both busy and on £25/ hour. This however rarely seems to be the case.

P.S. Note to OrionsBelt. I see that you mention having to revalidate your IMC Rating. Have you got a JAR or a UK CPL? If you hold a UK CPL then are you aware that you don't need to revalidate your IMC rating? Have a look at LASORS Section E. I quote: "IMC privileges are contained within UK CPL(A)..............."

[VFE]

August tends to be a bad month what with folk going on holiday however there is a general vibe at the moment that more people could be learning to fly than is presently the case. The main problem from where I'm standing is that tax on fuel is the primary reason as this increases the cost of flying lessons beyond many peoples budget. Some rural airfields also appear to be under the watchful gaze of housing developers offering deals which your average landowner would find hard to refuse.

Also, the current aviation environment as affected by terrorism perhaps means that some folk simply do not think laterally when it comes to learning how to fly - the human mind works in strange ways, especially the non-aviation orientated mind, therefore people do not make the rational differentiation between flying as a passenger on an airliner and learning how to fly a light aircraft unless they're sufficiently interested. Remember that a good deal of new business for flying clubs comes via gift trial lessons and the person potenially buying a gift trial lesson for a loved one may have a rather jaundiced view of aviation as a result of terrorism and simply choose an hour in a Ferrari on a racetrack or some such thrill instead.

VFE.

[orionsbelt]

Thank you Esperanza. That I know to my cost, I have a JAA CPL.
It was a big mistake at the time and I should have had a UK CPL as I had both options as I had passed the UK CPL theories but also had in excess of 1000hours flying under my belt, however the CAA recommend the JAA option.
At that time the UK CPL had several advantages over the JAA version.
1 It was a 10 year Licence, 2 it came with a IMC Rating. 3 if you had a IMC rating at that time you were allowed 5 hours (or was it 10 ) off your IR Course.
At the time of licence issue I failed to latch onto the differences I was just pleased to get a CPL after working my guts out for 12 months
Cheers Orion

[speechless1]

Esperanza. I would be interested to know where your catchment area is. As for the pay situation, I only get £10/hour, so it cant be that. However, we do fly PA28`s which i am sure you know, are more costly to run than the 150, but in my opinion a far better training platform.
VFE> not sure i agree about the trial lesson bringing in students. I think that those people who decide to learn to fly have made the decision before their trial lesson. I dont think we have ever had anyone `see the light` from a gift trial lesson. I hope your right about the August trend though.

[Esperanza]

Speechless1. In answer to your question; I'm based in the Midlands. We do a little bit of training using PA28's. Our training rate for the Warrior is £120/hour (inclusive of VAT, landing fees, etc). How do your rates compare? I agree that the Warrior is a nicer aircraft to learn to fly in. Our students that do train in the Warrior are usually either "whoppers" or not worried about the extra pennies.

[VFE]

Yeah, you're porbably right there speechless! Well, *some* have seen the light - the usual giveaway is the grin that won't disappear from their mug, but all that aside - trial lessons contribute to about 50% of my two lessons a week right now! ;)

VFE.