The coming decline of Aviation

[CaptR]

For interest have a read of the July issue of Airways or go to the following link which has a copy of the article as well - http://www.airliners.net/articles/read.main?id=81 (http://www.airliners.net/articles/read.main?id=81)

The article also reflects the the statements made by Peter Gregg (Qantas Chief Financial Officer) who stated in the Bulletin Magazine (20/07/2005) that “the airline is “one of the best hedged” airlines in the world, with 60% cover until mid-2006. But he warns Qantas’ fuel costs will be “$1.2bn higher” in 2005-06 than in 2004-05 at a US$60 a barrel oil price. “The industry in total can’t make profit with oil at $US60 a barrel.”
So what of that $US100-a-barrel oil price? Gregg sees airlines disappearing at such a level: “At the end of the day, $US100 is not sustainable. Plainly, there will have to be some consolidation.” The only winners would be oil-rich nations that own airlines: “The countries that own the oil will increasingly take over the industry,” Gregg says. Airlines such as Dubai-based Emirates would be “very well placed” (Note – they have ordered 45 of the new Airbus 380!!!). But for carriers who do not have the luxury of endless oil reserves at their disposal, the apocalypse may not be far away.

Currently an Australian Senate Inquiry is looking at the issue of the coming oil supply issues and what it means for Australia. ABC 4 Corners on Mon night (Jul 10) also covers the issue. The term Peak Oil has been covered in all Australian and International newspapers, National Geographic, Time Magazine, spoken about by the US President, former Presidents etc. If you think technology will save the day - you better research the how it will and you will be quite amazed at how far away we are from having anything even close to the enegry efficiency of oil - and at the end of the day technology has not overcome the fact that the last year we discovered more oil than we used was back in the 1960's! Makes one think doesn't it!!! Hand on for a very interesting ride over the coming years and if you work in aviation - start thinking about alternative employment!

[Duff Man]

Awaiting the "Scaremonger!" denialists to post ... :ugh:

[Aussie]

People still gotta get from place to place!

She'll be right mate! :}

Aussie

[captaindejavu]

A certain high-level executive friend of mine (no names for obvious reasons) in the Singapore petrochemical industry warned me several weeks ago that by the end of 2007, and possibly mid-2007), the price of oil WILL reach...... US$140-150 per barrell.

This allies pretty well with the extensive, verifiable data from the Peak Oil proponents.

Life After the Oil Crash (http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/)

[Shitsu_Tonka]

I think I raised this topic about a year ago and was chased off as one of those scaremongerers. My observation is that opinion is probably changing.

But so is mine.

A lot of the price escalation now is to do with traders artificially pushing up the price. I mean really, pushing it up $4 a barrel over North Korea? Come on. Pull the other one. It is very much in OPEC's favour to talk up all these crisis - and Bush actually plays along. That I don't get.

If you don't think there is some huge profiteering going on at the moment you would be very nieve. Each little rise is usually the traders testing the resistance level.

I have little doubt that Peak Oil is a reality, and in fact there a lot of positives out of it - but not for the airline industry, and not in it's current cut throat guise. Have airfares ever been so cheap? Isn't that an obvious solution? How much travel is purely arbitrary? Quite a bit if websites like wotif are any indication.

Just 2 weeks ago the Chairman of BP was suggesting realisitc oil prices at the moment are around $40-45 USD a barrel. Now whay would a compnay that stands to lose profits from a drop in the oil price say things like that? To reign in the traders perhaps? And stop the development of alternative energy sources like Ethanol too quickly becoming a viable competitor?

The obscenity of it all, is that with the introduction of good quality alternative energy sources like Ethanol, Australia could probably be energy self sufficient with it's oil and gas reserves for about 100 years, and not have to compete in this global energy market where the US which accounts for 5% of the worlds population uses 25% of the worlds oil. I mean, the yanks actually burn the stuff to produce electricity! And each year here in Australia, our local fuel price goes up because of the "US Driving Season", and the "US Gulf Hurricane Season"!? Please....! Some fat arsed US Redneck wants to pack their family in to a 5.0l Chevy 4WD and visit all the drive thru Taco Bells and Burger Kings on a road trip from Toothpick, Arkansas to TrailerTown, Lousiana to and we take a 10c a litre hit in Australia? Bush got one thing right in his state of the union address - "The US is addicted to Foreign Oil".

And Australia is paying for it.

One thing I don't get with Greggs little piece - where are these Gulf State A380's all going to fill up when they get to the end of their sector? Is he suggesting that the other countries are going to charge the same price to an oil-subsidised carrier when it lands in LAX , LHR or SYD for this precious resource? I don't think so. Makes a mockery of the global market doesn't it?

----

EDIT: Edited due arithmetic embarrassment (kudos to NFR )

[tinpis]

Oil costs US$1.70 a barrel to produce.

Go figure.

[soldier of fortune]

****su_tonka------you forgot to mention "bum f:mad: k idaho" for us driving holidays
:ok:

[Chocks Away]

Gotta agree with you ****su, re the profiteering.

[No Further Requirements]

****su_Tonka: I agree with your post 100%.
However: where the US which accounts for 1% of the worlds population
Since when had the world's population reached 30 Billion?:}
Cheers,
NFR.

[CaptR]

Interesting to read some of the comments thus far - in depth research is needed before throwing out an unresearched comment i.e. in relation to ethanol - have a look at some of the submissions to the senate enquiry - here's is a quote from a State Govt in regard to ethanol -

Bio-fuels are feasible and important but are most unlikely to be abundant enough or cheap enough to replace petrol, as Australians have known it. For instance, if all of Australia's wheat crop was converted to ethanol, it would only replace some 9-10% of our current oil needs. Converting a vital major food source entirely into fuel is neither practical, nor morally defensible.Further to the original post, readers may be interested in a recent US Department of Energy (DOE) report into the issue of peak oil. The authors testimony to the US HOUSE SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND AIR QUALITY
states that "The era of plentiful, low-cost petroleum is approaching an end. A recent
analysis for the DOE focused on what might be done to mitigate the peaking of world oil production. It became abundantly clear that effective mitigation will be dependent on the implementation of mega-projects and mega-changes at the maximum possible rate. A scenario analysis was performed, based on crash program implementation worldwide – the fastest humanly possible. The timing of oil peaking was left open because of the considerable differences of opinion among experts. The results were startling: Unless a mitigation crash program is started 20 years before peaking occurs, the economic consequences will be dire. Oil peaking represents a liquid fuels problem, because motor vehicles, aircraft, trucks, and ships have no ready alternative to liquid fuels, certainly not for the existing capital stock, which has lifetimes measured on a decade scale.
The world has never confronted a problem like peak oil. Since it is
uncertain when peaking will occur, the challenge for decision-makers is vexing. Mustering support for an approaching, invisible disaster is much more difficult than for one that is obvious. We would like to believe that the optimists are right about peak oil being a distant problem, but the risks of error are beyond imagination".

The issue for aviation is simple - all economic forecasts are based on an ever increasing supply of oil, rather than an ever increasing gap between production and demand. Forecasts by several economists now have oil anywhere between $100 - $270 barrel in the coming years, terms such as "demand destruction" are becoming common. Given a large amount of air travel is based on discretionary spending and this is reducing already for the common person, how will increasing fuel costs affect the average person? Have a read of recent work done by Griffith University in relation to Oil Vulnerability in the Australian Cities.......an eyeopener..... how far do you think the food at supermarket has travelled and how much oil/energy has gone into its production - wait to these costs are passed on, because at present very little has! For every calorie of food you eat, approx 10 calories of fossil fuel equivilent energy has gone into its production - makes one realise how vunerable our society to not having access or capability to obtain cheap oil! If discretionary travel reduced to 10% of current levels what would this mean for airfares - hence the comments from Qantas CFO in my original post - the writing is on the wall.

A recent US Army report also highlights the forecast difficulties of maintaining fuel in a future where demand outstrips supplies. So many people prefer to stick their head in the sand and not research the issue seriously, or simply think technology will save us - have a read of what the CSIRO has to say and other Government Departments, then understand what our Government policy is on managing a fuel emergency - you will be surprised - if you can't afford it - tough.......!

[tinpis]

Still plenty of coal that can be used for recip fuel and steam for ships.

[CaptR]

Coal is an option to convert it to synfuel in the medium term (not short term). CSIRO point sout to the Senate Inquiry that "The situation with the production of synfuel from coal (CtL) is a somewhat different. The key issue here is, . compared to natural gas, the process produces more greenhouse gas emissions., However, the reserves of coal are much larger than the reserves of gas, particularly in America. It seems highly probable that CtL processes will be optimised in America. In this case, the research needs must be focused on adjusting processes to meet the use of Australian coals. CSIRO is already active in this field, working with coal gasification and clean up of syngas prepared from Australian coals. Once syngas is produced and cleaned, the conversion to synfuel will follow the same line as GtL. As a result, additional in-depth research is unlikely to be required".

Geoscience Australia state that "As with the conventional fuels referred to above, each alternative transport fuel has advantages and disadvantages. Important considerations include adequacy of resources and sustainability of production, full life cycle greenhouse gas emissions, other emissions, OH&S effects, cost and weight of storage, modifications to existing infrastructure and engines. Some of these processes themselves consume considerable amounts of energy to convert or store energy into a usable form, so the net energy gain from conversion to a convenient and practical form of transport fuel may be small. Australia has very significant black and brown coal resources (Geoscience Australia 2005). The resource life of accessible economic demonstrated resources (EDR) of black coal (40.3 Gt) is greater than 100 years at current rates of production. The resource life of accessible EDR of brown coal of 30.0 Gt is close to 450 years. Australia has 5% of the world’s recoverable black coal EDR and ranks sixth behind USA (20%), China (13%), India (12%) and South Africa (7%). It produced about 7% of the world’s black coal in 2004 and ranked fourth after China (37%), USA (22%) and India (8%). Australia has about 24% of the world’s brown coal EDR and is ranked number one in this category. Australia produces about 8% of the world’s brown coal and is the fifth largest producer after Germany (22%), Russia (10%), USA (9%) and Greece (8%).
There is potential to convert black or brown coal to diesel fuel using a number of different processes. Conversion of Latrobe Valley brown coal to diesel has been proposed using the Fischer-Tropsch gas-to-liquids technology. Between 1985 and 1990 the Brown Coal Liquefaction (Victoria) Pty Ltd pilot plant trial (50 tonne/day) of the liquefaction of Victorian brown coals was carried out by a consortium of Japanese companies. A two-stage hydrogenation process was used". However can we scale this up to provide for a large amount of our transport industry fuel - there is not a chance we could even provide for our current liquid fuel daily demand in Australia using coal to synfuel technology!!

When looking at alterntive fuels it is crucial to consider the energy invested vs the energy returned.......

The real issue then becomes how much coal can be converted to liquid fuel every day (we need 800,000 barrels a day minimum and this needs to increase to over 1 200 000 barrels per day out to 2029-30.


This forecast represents a sustained increase of almost 2% annually until 2029-30. On a simplistic analysis out to 2009, the Australian production estimates for crude oil and condensate represent only 63% of the forecast Australian demand for oil. As projections of production rates suggest they will decline after 2009, the shortfall in domestic demand versus domestic supply is anticipated to increase significantly.

Happy research!

[CaptR]

Peaking
It is important to recognize that oil production peaking is not “running out.” Peaking is the maximum oil production rate, which typically occurs after roughly half of the recoverable oil in an oil field has been produced. What is likely to happen on a world scale will be similar to what happens with individual oil fields, because world production is by definition the sum total of production from all of the world’s oil fields.

Shale Oil
A recent study performed by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves advocates a research and development program with a production goal of two million barrels per day from shale oil by 2020. While the U.S. has a huge resource of shale oil that could be processed into substitute liquid fuels, the technology to accomplish that task is not now ready for deployment. Given we currently burn over 84 million barrels of oil a day shale oil with its lengthy processes will never come close to meeting current demand, let alone future demands.

Lord Browne - BP
Russia is the world's No. 2 crude exporter after Saudi Arabia. Its supplies, which go mainly to Europe, cover more than a quarter of the continent's oil needs. It also has 28% of the worlds available reserves of gas. Companies wishing to make an acquisition, avoid windfall taxes or deter Russian expropriations have every good reason to try to talk down the price of oil.

As mentioned earlier in another post, "Lord Browne, the chief executive of oil firm BP, has said he expects crude prices to fall from current near-record levels as more supplies are discovered. However Lord Browne, speaking in an interview with German magazine Der Spiegel, said there was not likely to be any dip in prices in the short term. He said prices will probably settle at an average of about $40 a barrel in the medium term, before falling lower.... Lord Browne said that companies were finding large oil deposits in the Caspian Sea, while there was good production potential in countries such as Russia and regions including Western Africa. He also said that improved efficiency would help boost crude extraction. 'In the past we managed to get out 20% to 30%,' Lord Browne said. 'At the moment it's maybe 40% to 45%. I can see no reason why we could not reach 50% or 60%.'

The price of oil may indeed fall as Lord Browne suggests if economic collapse from soaring prices leads to a reduction in demand. But adding sufficient new world supply is not plausible in view both of the forty-year trend of declining discovery, which is hardly likely to change direction, and the increasing desire of countries, led by Russia & Venezeula, to conserve their resources for their own needs. Apparent improved recovery is more an artefact of reporting than a technological dynamic. Field developments tend to occur in steps, with the reserves of each being properly reported as committed, giving the illusion of reserve growth. The amazing technological advanced have served mainly to hold production higher for longer, which makes more money, without adding much to the amounts recoverable, as amply demonstrated in many giants fields. Besides, sucking a few extra barrels out of a field may extend its life, but is unlikely to affect the critical peak rate of production.

Meanwhile, BP has published the 2006 Edition of its Statistic Review of World Energy which is widely, but wrongly, taken as an authoritative source of data coming from an experienced and knowledgeable oil company. It is important therefore to note the key qualification stated in the following footnote
Statistics published in this Review are taken from government sources and published data. No use is made of confidential information obtained by BP in the course of its business.

BP’s position is entirely understandable as it once had to withdraw the publication even after it had been printed under pressure from an important host government which did not wish it to reveal the truth. The most glaring distortions in the BP Reserve data are for the OPEC countries, which are reporting about double the amount likely to be extracted from known fields, but in some other cases, such as the United Kingdom, the estimates are under-reported.

Do the research, use sources like CSIRO, DOE, Geoscience Australia, US House of Reps, The current Australian Senate Inquiry, go and look at Chevron Texaco's website http://www.willyoujoinus.com/ - there are numerous, numerous sources of data to understand and be informed - research all angles for yourselves......

After 7 years of researching this issue it is to serious to ignore. People buy insurance in case their house catches fire, where is the insurance for this issue - particulary if you are in the aviation industry which is so vunerable to the price of oil.....watch this space over the coming 2 years and watch more airlines go bankrupt, merge.........as the QANTAS CFO acknowleged when it gets to expensive we will be all out of a job - unless you work for Emirates or suchlike!!

[Selac66]

Qantas will revert to government ownership within five years.

[4PW's]

Someone has been reading Matt Simmons' book, 'Twilight in the Desert'.

Heavy going, but it dove-tails well with Prechter's book, 'Tidal Wave'.

Rough ride ahead.

[Airbornespanner]

When are the airlines Especially the "Q" going to stop the 'woa is us' bleeting every time there is a increase in the oil prices. These increases effect ALL of us not just THEM, but you and I are not able to hedge against these ( as the "Q" has done ) and increase fuel levies every time the price of a barrel of oil goes up. We cannot approach our employers and get an increase in wages to compensate for increase fuel prices but we still have to drive our cars to work.

[speedbirdhouse]

Quote-

"Qantas will revert to government ownership within five years."

The question is, who's government.......?

[LewC]

Sasol and the Chinese Government seem to know something that the CSIRO doesn't.They've just signed an agreement to construct two coal-to-liquid conversion plants in Northern China.Each plant will produce 80000 barrels of oil per day at a cost of $40 per barrel.I suppose Governments can do this kind of thing when they are not owned by BIG OIL.

[Chocks Away]

Interesting point, re Chinas' surge in demand qfcainer and it goes along with a 4 Corners (Aust) exspose' on the topic, 6 months back.
It was mentioned that their demand was only for the short term, as they are investing heavily on more advanced energy sources, choosing not to go the standard "fosil fuel" course of all western countries, ie jump some steps closer to totally alternative energy cars etc.
Pollution is still massive there but over to someone in China, for an update on their good intentions, I guess:)...

Here, here Airbornespanner :ok:

[Ultralights]

when will airlines wake up to themselves and start selling tickets at prices that will earn a profit???? price of oil goes up. so does the ticket price, just as it does in every other industry.

[The Professor]

Yep, and as the price goes up the number of pax goes down and fewer planes are needed and fewer pilots employed. The future is not to bright for airlines unfortunately. Anyone care to guess why NK is in the gunsights?

[Eagleman]

From the IATA site:


[/URL]IATA Commentary: Jet Fuel Price Impact on Airlines

Both crude oil and jet fuel prices moved higher last week, with the IATA jet fuel basket reaching $89 a barrel which is 25% higher than the 2005 average of $71 a barrel. The sustained high level of energy prices partly reflects the strength of economies and demand for oil around the world. However, there is still no sign of additional supply from outside of OPEC (despite production costs remaining below $20 a barrel) and there seems little prospect of the $15/b or so geo-political risk premium diminishing soon. As a result the remaining analysts forecasting a short-term fall in the oil and jet fuel prices have capitulated. Merrill Lynch raised their WTI oil prices forecast for this year from $59.5/b to $67.5/b and to $65/b in 2007. UBS raised their forecast for average jet fuel prices this year from $72/b to $80/b.

4-Jul-06

Movements in the jet fuel price index over the past four weeks:

Date
Index*
30 Jun 06
243.423 Jun 06
238.616 Jun 06
236.109 Jun 06
247.4Sourced from [URL="http://www.platts.com/"]Platts (http://www.iata.org/whatwedo/economics/fuel_monitor/index.htm) * (Equal to 100 in year 2000 or 87cts/gal)

Taking a look at the price action over the past six months:

http://www.iata.org/NR/rdonlyres/C41C270F-2365-48BE-9191-088B265A5974/0/ChartA.gif
Taking a longer term perspective of price movements:

http://www.iata.org/NR/rdonlyres/578F8E6C-DAD2-44FB-ADBD-CF7D5013AD6A/0/ChartB.gif
Impact of Euro/US$ exchange rate movement:

http://www.iata.org/NR/rdonlyres/00F9AB2A-9F54-466E-9900-BD775CFC78EC/0/ChartC.gif

[CaptR]

Back in Apr. 19, 2006 – Vice President and Chief Economist John Heimlich from the Air Transport Association provided some perspective on jet fuel and its implications for industry operations and financial performance.

"Simply put, today's jet fuel prices are crushing, and could prove to be a knock-out blow for some. Thanks to the high price of crude as well as a range of issues with refining (http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/oil_market_basics/Refining_text.htm) capacity, product distribution, and market speculation, jet fuel prices have soared. And keep in mind -- unlike other modes of transport, airlines have no alternative to jet fuel. Even before Hurricane Rita landed, we saw two additional bankruptcy filings, not to mention significant reductions in domestic air service. Others may be on the horizon.

Fuel prices are influenced by a myriad of global and local factors, but are heavily correlated with the price of crude oil, which is being driven principally by a robust global economy, increasing supply tightness, geopolitical insecurity, and unique production and demand factors, and, most recently, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, among other causes.

The technical specifications for jet fuel make it more complex to refine. U.S. buyers have also been somewhat disadvantaged in recent years vs. their foreign counterparts, due to a relatively weak dollar. Beyond the price of crude oil, the price of jet fuel has risen sharply with overburdened refineries, competition with other products in multi-product pipelines (http://www.pipeline101.com/index.html) and refinery outages".

Increasing supply tightness will continue to increase - this is caused by geology and will not be resolved by the market - hence the disagreements between economists and geologists......at the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association (APPEA) conference in Apr 2005, when attendees (generally industry geologists and engineers from the likes Woodside, Shell, BP etc) were asked by the speaker if we are at or near peak oil, 50% raised their hands in agreement - a worrying sign by anyone's standard!!


Recently James C. May, President and CEO Air Transport Association of America, Inc testafied before the Aviation Subcommittee, Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation of the United States Senate on September 14, 2005, of interest he said "No business model at any airline can survive with sustained jet fuel prices of $90 - $100 per barrel" sounds like their is some consensus with what the CFO of QANTAS also stated in the Bulletin magazine! He went on to also say that "Every $1 increase in the price of a barrel of crude puts another 5,500 airline jobs at risk". In one of his concluding remarks he stated " we must find and produce more oil in the U.S., including reserves from the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the outer continental shelf. Other environmentally concerned nations are tapping into their off-shore oil and natural gas reserves. We must do the same if our aviation network – indeed our entire transportation system – is to remain sound and competitive in the face of growing worldwide demand for oil". Given that this has not be occuring (with the exception of nations like China who are aggressively locking in long term (30yrs+) contracts for the supply of oil and gas - one has to wonder where the airlines are heading in the next couple of years........am glad that I got out of it and am now earning more dollars flying a desk than what I did flying aircraft.........my counsel for what it is worth - is start to set yourselves up for a job outside of the industry as you don't want to be looking for a job when thousands of others are as well.........by the way - I have not read Matt Simmons book yet - however I have head that it is good.

[gaunty]

I'm with Selac66.

It might not be exactly 5 years but sooner than later, as will most of the First World nations airlines with the rest of the fleet either consolidating into major blocks out or going out of business.

Every country will be retreating to economic and nutritional self sufficiency and there will as a consequence be a revoltion in the refurbishment and recovery of out agricultural industries with a drastic redistribution of work and wealth from the non productive and secondary "services industries" to primary production.

Blind Freddy can tell you that when it is cheaper to buy your "fresh squeezed" orange juice from half way around the world than from your local orchard, and then try and find proper garlic even, that hasn't been grown in Spain or China there is something seriously wrong with our thinking for the future. For the same reason when it is cheaper to fly half way around the world than it is to holday in your own backyard.
The alarm bells are ringing off their mounts chaps.

You should contemplate that fundamental law of Physics, that of conservation of energy against the current 1 calorie of "fresh" food requiring 10 claories of fossil fuel to produce for a start.

Airline travel will return towards the mode in which it was the most profitable and succesful. Highly discretionary, relatively high value and therefore relatively unavailable to the masses.
And I dont mean exclusive or elitist, just not profligate.

Everybody, and quite rightly, points at the USA as the mega consumer, forgetting Europe, but the real BBQ stopper is what will happen within the next 5-10 years when only 10-20% of the Indian and Chinese populations become and they are as entitled as we "middleclass western type consumers". That will represent something like doubling the pressure on existing scarce and diminishing resources.:eek: And that does not account for the natural increase in world population, which the last time I looked appeared to be going asymptotic. :{

How we and they negotiate the uncharted waters this will bring some seriously sleepless nights, readjustment of expectations and fundamental technological changes to the way we currently do things, basic to which is how we are going to feed them all?

And yes oil will be closer to the mid $30. A paradox you think, not really, if you think it through.:ok:

[skyshow]

Seems like aircraft manufacturers have acknowledged the future problems expressed here in these posts.
Just like our road transports are starting to see changes, the air transport industry may see positive changes too.

"...hydrogen-powered Airbus will fly in 12 to 14 years..."

"It needn't take another couple of decades for hybrid-powered airplanes to take to the skies, however. Prototypes using fuel cells and alcohol-powered engines are already flying, though large-scale versions have yet to taxi off the drawing board. Both Boeing and Airbus have studied airplanes fueled by liquid hydrogen, and these may be the most promising. They wouldn't require any technological breakthroughs, just redesigned planes capable of carrying more of the lighter, colder hydrogen fuel."

There are many web sites/articles with information on the technological changes in aviation and other transport systems within years to come, just like there are about an 'end being near'.

http://www.flug-revue.rotor.com/FRheft/FRH9809/FR9809K1.JPG http://planetforlife.com/images/h2airplane.jpg
www.h2-economy.com/ (http://www.h2-economy.com/)

[Shitsu_Tonka]

Gaunty,

I see your line of thinking v.v. $30/barrel if you are referring to massive retraction of the economy and reduced demand. (and probably a worthless USD)

One observation - when this was raised here about a year ago it was shot down in flames - now there seems to be general acceptance of the concept. Unfortunately, our economy is so inextricably linked to cheap oil it is probably too late to cushion the 'crash'.

The whole concept of globalisation relies on cheap oil to make it work - mores the pity, in the process of importing cheap labour by de-facto means (cheap imported finished goods delivered to our doorstep by fossil fuels), we have de-skilled our own economy: agriculture (oil based pesticides), manufacturing and textiles have been decimated. Our current economic boom is almost solely built around ripping stuff out of the ground - and exporting it: Hardly energy effective business in the long run, but possilby some cushion to our own future energy needs if we can no longer afford to export the stuff.

[Our rail network has rusted away to allow cheap road-trains to haul our stuff around. The resurgence of rail will occur out of neccessity one would think.]

Globalisation is really the only means by which the requirement for continual growth can be sustained - barely. Without the means of servicing this globalised trade, economically, it does not bode well for the basis of the western economy as it is currently structured.

[CaptR]

The website that looked at aircraft bveing powered by hydrogen can be located at http://www.flug-revue.rotor.com/FRheft/FRH9809/FR9809k.htm

As the previous reply correctly stated "possibly" the website reads as follows -

"The end is in sight. Even if opinions about the exact date may differ, the supply of fossil fuels is expected to be exhausted sometime in the next century. This is the latest when we will need alternative forms of energy at our disposal. They will have to be developed well enough not to just work in the laboratory but be used safely and reliably in operational service.
One possible energy source is hydrogen. It might be used in aviation as well. In view of the fact that today's airliners have a service life of several decades, it seems only reasonable to look into the basic requirements for aircraft that are powered by hydrogen".

The website correctly points out that "the significantly lower density of hydrogen causes problems with the fuel tanks. In order to reduce the space needed for the storage of hydrogen, there are plans to store the fuel in liquid form in its designated tanks at 20 degrees Kelvin (minus 253 Degrees Celsius). But even then is the specific volume of hydrogen twelve times larger than that of kerosene. If you take into account that only a third of the weight of kerosene has to be transported, a tank, which is four times bigger than that for a kerosene aircraft, is needed for a hydrogen airplane". I expect that eventually (not anytime soon) they may find some way of effectively storing hydrogen and also work out the ground support infrastructure that would be required to hold the fuel as well.

The key point to remember about hydrogen is that it is an energy carrier and not an energy source. Hydrogen must be manufactured from other fuels and its storage is problamatic. The lack of a hydrogen distribution system is a major barrier for its use for vehicles and aircraft use.

The US Department of Energy report reminds one that "Oil peaking represents a liquid fuels problem, not an “energy crisis” in the sense that term has been used. Motor vehicles, aircraft, trains, and ships simply have no ready alternative to liquid fuels. Non-hydrocarbon-based energy sources, such as solar, wind, photovoltaics, nuclear power, geothermal, fusion, etc. produce electricity, not liquid fuels, so their widespread use in transportation is at best decades away. Accordingly, mitigation of declining world oil production must be narrowly focused. Mitigation will require an intense effort over decades. This inescapable conclusion is based on the time required to replace vast numbers of liquid fuel consuming vehicles and the time required to build a substantial number
of substitute fuel production facilities. Our scenarios analysis shows:
• Waiting until world oil production peaks before taking crash program
action would leave the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for more
than two decades.
• Initiating a mitigation crash program 10 years before world oil peaking
helps considerably but still leaves a liquid fuels shortfall roughly a decade
after the time that oil would have peaked.
• Initiating a mitigation crash program 20 years before peaking appears to
offer the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast period.
The obvious conclusion from this analysis is that with adequate, timely
mitigation, the economic costs to the world can be minimized. If mitigation
were to be too little, too late, world supply/demand balance will be achieved through massive demand destruction (shortages), which would translate to significant economic hardship. There will be no quick fixes. Even crash programs will require more than a decade to yield substantial relief.

[Shitsu_Tonka]

On current demand, there is reasonably balanced opinion that we have peaked already, or are very close to it. The unknown proven reserves secrecy is part of the problem of being sure.

If demand could be drastically reduced by bringing on alternative sources where oil is not neccessary (the US currently burn the stuff to generate electricity in some places) could actually push the peak 'out; a little further to enable other developments a window of opportunity for R & D and production and distibution. The problem with this, is that with reduced demand come redduced price on the oil - thus the alternatives are not as attractive in the short/medium term, and the countries who rely almost solely on oil revenues would not be happy.

One could also argue this then takes the argument full circle to keeping known reserves secret.

[soldier of fortune]

one only has to look at the building boom in the sandpit to relise that they to know they are running out of oil-trying to turn there economy from oil based to a middle eastern singapore-
trying times for everyone- ---on a local level [email protected] aud a ltr for petrol- this price now must be making an impact on peoples every day living in australia.
have or are we reaching a breaking point. how do the LCC's like easy jet still make a profit but carriers like qf are starting to struggle- yet we are one of the best hedged airlines in the world:confused:

[Mainframe]

Yes, there is a problem looming no doubt.

The pessimist's approach is that there are no alternatives and we'll all be rooned.

"Said Hanrahan" by John O'Brien

"We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
In accents most forlorn,
Outside the church, ere Mass began,
One frosty Sunday morn.

The congregation stood about,
Coat-collars to the ears,
And talked of stock, and crops, and drought,
As it had done for years.

"It's looking crook," said Daniel Croke;
"Bedad, it's cruke, me lad,
For never since the banks went broke
Has seasons been so bad."

On the other hand, the optimists embrace the creed
"Necessity is the mother of invention".

Shale oil was once viable, (Southern Highlands NSW was a thriving production centre once),
and the Rundle Shale Oil reserves in Central Qld and other places are just waiting for the viability costs for break even to occur.

Elsewhere in the world, shale and tar abounds (Athabascar tar sands etc.)

The Australian Shale oil production was centred around the easier to produce kerosene (isn't this almost Jet A1?).

Petrol rationing in WW2 also spawned alternatives such as automotive charcoal burners for flammable gas production.

All possible interim steps while the innovators start innovating.

Bring on the alchemists, we need them soon.

The world was going to end at the start of the 2nd millenium, but we're still here.

Yes, be concerned, but don't just let go in despair, solutions will develop.

MF:=

[Eagleman]

Quote..
So what of that $US100-a-barrel oil price? Gregg sees airlines disappearing at such a level
Unquote

Could big Pete be sending us a signal?

Quote..
Leighton announced (http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20060704/pdf/00626836.pdf) yesterday that Qantas chief financial officer, Peter Gregg, would become a director. He replaces Qantas CEO Geoff Dixon, who resigned from the Leighton board six weeks ago to become a director of PBL where executive chairman, James Packer, is a director of Qantas.

Surely Gregg should be too busy to have an outside directorship. It's one thing for a CEO to pick up a board seat as he heads towards retirement – Ted Kunkel at Billabong and Roger Corbett at Fairfax are two examples – but quite another to start landing them before even making it into the top job.
Unquote

:confused:

[The_Cutest_of_Borg]

When Y2k reared it's ugly head, and yes it actually was a threat, the powers that be realised the potential and ensured that it was a non-event when it occurred. Why? Because the workings of the Industrialised world depended on it.

I tend to see this in the same light. The world cannot afford the ramifications of running out of liquid energy. The onset of the problem could be delayed substantially right now by the mandating of hybrid vehicles for all. The only thing missing at the moment is the political will.

Unfortunately, with a least a trillion barrels of recoverable oil still left in the ground, Big Oil sees at least 100 trillion dollars worth of business still to be done and Government see the tax revenues that will bring.

Maybe, with the environment also at stake, the solution would be for people to start demanding these sorts of changes. (and tip all the damn 4WD's in the recycle centre!:E )

[Wirraway]

Mon "ABC News"

Monday, July 10, 2006. 4:05pm (AEST)

Shortage looms: Dr Bakhtiari says the world has five years to prioritise oil use.

Oil production limit reached: expert
An international oil industry expert says the limit of global oil production has been reached.

Academic and former National Iranian Oil Company executive Dr Ali Samsam Bakhtiari has told the Financial Services Institute in Sydney the world's oil fields are producing as much oil as they can.

He says giant fields in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are struggling to meet production targets.

Dr Bakhtiari says the massive output declines in the North Sea oil fields and Mexican oil fields will have a major economic impact.

"Crude oil is the master domino," he said. "When you tumble crude oil, all the other dominos tumble."

Dr Bakhtiari says for the first time in 150 years, the world is entering an era in which it cannot have all the oil it wants.

He says there are five years left to plan priorities for the use of crude oil.

"Some countries don't even know what is happening," he said.

"Some huge companies don't even know what is happening and they are going to be ambushed and trapped and they are going to panic.

"The worst thing you can do is to panic when the prices are going to go sky-high."


ABC TV's Four Corners program this week examines the state of the world's oil reserves. The full program can be seen at 8:30pm tonight.

===========================================

[CaptR]

Hi All,

Well this thread is getting interesting - suggest all watch 4 corners tonight.

In regard to shale oil - its crap oil, not the sweet light oil that gave the world the era of cheap easily recoverable oil...........as Chevron Texaco says - the era of cheap is is OVER............

Look around you - almost everything you see comes from oil or is oil based, the synthetic clothes you wear, the food you eat (fertiliser feedstock, farming and transport), the sunglasses you wear, the making of your car, the 11 litres it took to make your car tyre........every god damn thing........as the Australian Labour party says in its energy blueprint - who are the Australian public going to blame when they ar paying between $5 - $10 litre for petrol............at these prices there will be NO MORE discretionary spending = NO MORE discretionery travel - by car or by aircraft for the average jo bloggs...........for everyone who thinks technology will save the day - do the research - I have spent seven years researching this issue and there is no one simple solution to replace the efficiency that oil provides us in the vast quantities needed every day - without an ever increasing energy supply the global economy will stagnate and go backwards and as the wiser economists who are across this state the global depression will make the great depression look like a picnic party. We have not discovered more oil than what we use in a year since the 1960's - technology is working good isn't it - NOT - with a track record like that I wouldn't trust it at all. Remember the US Department of Energy report - if massive mitigation measures are not started 20yrs prior to peaking the economic consequences will be DIRE............what do you think they are talking about? It is the harsh reality of geology not economics that is about to slap us.........and the market can do jack s**t about that!!

Have a look at

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200607/s1682899.htm

another person has already pasted the general content of this - watch 4 corners tonight and I urge everyone to research this yourself - do not be satisified to you have proven that a solution exists, - it takes effort - unfortunatley most people prefer to ignore it - well simply put, don't ask for help when you need it because you were warned, have been for years but didn't pay attention. Many people insure your car or your house, but fail to understand what is about to happen...........its their own fault - do the research and don't expect the Govt to lay it out on a plate for you and tell you what you need to do! If you live in the suburbs and your house in 2010 is worth 50% less than what it is now - its your fault for not doing something now...........frankly - I look forward to the world becoming bigger again and less busy!!!

Happy research.........

[el @]

Hi All,
..............its their own fault - do the research and don't expect the Govt to lay it out on a plate for you and tell you what you need to do! If you live in the suburbs and your house in 2010 is worth 50% less than what it is now - its your fault for not doing something now...........frankly - I look forward to the world becoming bigger again and less busy!!!
Happy research.........
So, let's say the world as we know it will tumble in 5-10 years. Let's look at the perspectives of the developed western countries, betters to say not the country but the individual itself.
The nations may even dissolve, will we fall into chaos? Will the resources so scarce that there will be no food for everyone? Will the money still have a value after the banks collaplse? Or will be instead a gradual, orderly slowdown to a self-supporting type of economy?
Ok, nobody can anser these questions, but what do you suggest CaptR, how we should plan to live our last years and what to do for our childs ? Sell the house now ? Move in country, learn agriculture and how live off basic things? And which country should we move to? Should we get armed (the Americans already are) ?
Inquiring minds wants to know ...

[CaptR]

When I first became aware of what was going to occur in 1999, I tried everything I could to disprove it, I researched, researched and researched.........to date I have been unable to disprove it (against my strongest wishes to do so).......so over the years I have watched with interest as what I expected to happen gradually start to occur and watch the debate between economists and geologists heat up.

The consensus is that Peak Oil will occur (thus this point I now do not dispute), there is ongoing debate about when it will occur, however once again the consenus (if you do your research) seems to be swinging around that it is likely to occur sooner rather than later.

The consequences - will it be a soft descent to new energy sources that are yet to be fully developed or will it be a moderate descent or a hard descent (that makes the great depression seem like an enjoyable picnic!)? Will it be better to live in a city (and avoid the consequnces of living in outer suburbs), but then again what about food - how will the agricultural industry that depends on oil to produce food (look at graphs of world population the past thousand years and overlay oil production with it and you will see what I mean).........grow enough and send it to the market.....

Looking at this from a risk management perspective, I insure my home, my car - how am I going to insure myself to achieve a reasonably comfortable existence for myself, better half and family?

I do not offer counsel to anyone about what to do, or when, rather do the research that I have done. For me and my family - looking to downshift a little, a little acreage at a place with rainfall each month, access to water, fertile soil, plenty of sun & a moderate climate (including the climate in years to come - as this will also affect climate change somewhat as well), get a job that pays the same as what I get now (the area I am loking at has several going at present) and spin this out as long as I can, spend more time with my family, learn some permaculture - I will finally have time to enjoy life more and smell the roses.......this way regardless what happens I know that my family and I will be OK and that we can get by on very little energy due to how our house is being built and the design of our property.........

Others may choose to live in cities, personally I think that this comes with a little more risk than what I would be comfortable with after my research.........but hey - I am tired of the rush we have at present so what I plan to do is great for me, but not great for others....

You may be able to make some good money by doing some put options as some areas (aviation, trucking etc) of the share market goes down, as well as putting money on areas which wil go up i.e. coastal shipping, rail etc - get in early and hang on for the ride.....

Happy research and enjoy tonights program!

[The_Cutest_of_Borg]

I think there is huge scope for optimism provided people act soon.

As I said before, many of these problems can be delayed indefinitely by the increased usage of already available technologies. IMHO, hybrids offer the best hope in the short to medium term.

In 2000, 54% of petroleum in the US was used by all forms of road transport. At current usage rates that accounts for around 10-12 million bpd. Other countries would have similiar usage rates.

The average US car gets around 20 mpg. Developments in hybrids using lithium ion batteries are verging on the profound and easily have the potential to make 100 mpg engines on a car with a 300 mile range. That car can then be recharged relatively quickly via a standard AC outlet.

This technology is available NOW without the huge infrastructure costs and complexity of a hydrogen economy. All that is required to make it so, is the political will.

Once you get cars weaned off petroleum then most of the problems, whilst not solved, get relegated to the 22nd century. Hybrids will only get better as more R&D is put into them.

In short, provided good sense prevails (and that is the big IF) then there is no reason to panic. (Although a couple of acres in the country would be nice...)

[Howard Hughes]

CaptR=Capt Reporter?;)

One to many plugs for a TV show me thinks...:hmm:
Great topic though and definately worth some research, I'll be watching your show with an open mind tonight!:ok:

[CaptR]

I agree - I think there is huge scope for optimism provided people act soon.........

However transport is only one item that is dependant on oil...............almost the entire economy is based on ever increasing supplies of cheap oil - and it ain't going to be cheap anymore. Hybrids are great but as with all vehicles a huge amount of energy goes into their construction from mining the raw materials to produce the metals to the car factories, to the batteries that are needed, even the tyres for a car take almost 11 litres of oil to produce - all of the processes are mainly dependant on cheap oil.......and this is going to change........then we have food production - one cow takes six barrels of oil to bring it to the market when one looks at all the fossil fuel inputs during its lifetime - this is how our cheap meat ends up in the supermarket (does this mean we get to eat less meat!!? Damn!!)

If we moved to an all electric hybrid (and find the money to do so now that I am paying more for everything) we would need to do major upgrades to the electricity grids (now that we already have brownouts in Australia and the US during peak demand time each year) - there are several interesting articles about system interdependancies if you do some research - and shows the ripple effect through an economy - real interesting reading......

The issue is to get people weaned off petroleum, not cars - hence why President Bush stated that America is addicted to oil.........but then again when his Deputy states that the American way of life is not negotiable one has to wonder how serious they are or if they will start the next resource war (Iraq being the first) with Iran?

Anyway - back to aviation, the outlook is not good........the sole intent of this thread was to keep your eyes open, watch your six, be informed, keep the research up and position yourselves so you have an option in teh next five years........hopefully some miracle will occur and we can all carry on consuming like we are now......I truly doubt this however........its better to plan and be ready than not and suffer for it......

Cheers and safe flying.......

[Shitsu_Tonka]

When I started researching this, one of the solutions I read about to overcome our human condition in failing to act (denial), was to actually get out there and burn up this stuff as fast as we can, and get rid of it as fast as possible to force our hand.

Curiously, it seems many of us are doing just that anyway.

[el @]

When I started researching this, one of the solutions I read about to overcome our human condition in failing to act (denial), was to actually get out there and burn up this stuff as fast as we can, and get rid of it as fast as possible to force our hand.
Curiously, it seems many of us are doing just that anyway.

Yep, that's why often I wonder if I shouldn't get a sports car now. Even a used Porsche would be stupid enough for the purpose. Maybe I would be able to run it on ethanol later, who knows.

[ennui]

CaptR

Bob each way!

Been thinking like you for many years now.

Bought the block in Qld, studied permaculture, got the veggie patch going, 2 growing seasons per year, small orchard, little creek, dam, close to the sea with a tinney for the fish!

Can feed the family when we get home from the sandpit via the yacht!

good luck all

Armagedon approaches ;)

[skyshow]

It appears there are already implementations in place to help reduce the reliance on oil. It may take some time to fully make the most of this new technology, but it is a start?

“Transperth (public transport) now has three hydrogen fuel cell EcoBuses in its fleet as part of a world wide trial. The hydrogen used in EcoBuses is produced by the BP Oil Refinery. The fuel cell buses use hydrogen and oxygen to create electricity through an electro-chemical process. The by-products of this chemical reaction are pure water vapour and heat, resulting in no pollution. So if you see them on the road in Perth, that's steam coming from the rear exhaust, not fumes! The hydrogen fuel cell buses will be operated and maintained by Path Transit over the two year trial period. The EcoBus project is part of the Western Australian Government’s internationally recognised work in ensuring sustainable transport energy for Western Australia.”

“Iceland has committed to becoming the world's first hydrogen economy by the year 2050.”

“Ethanol use and production in the United States is steadily increasing. As gasoline prices continue to increase, ethanol may become a more profitable alternative to gasoline. Roughly 685 gas stations, out of a total of 165,000 carry E85 pumps. Ethanol is predominantly only available in the Midwest and California, where most ethanol is refined. As of 19 June 2006 in the US, there are 4.8 billion gallons (18.17 million m³) per year capacity for ethanol production with capacity of 2.22 billion gallons (8.4 million m³) per year under construction. For example, the U.S. company Pacific Ethanol is currently building more ethanol facilities in the western U.S.”

Work on alternative fuelling for commercial aircraft has stopped and started over the years. These may not have been for oil depletion purposes but wouldn’t this reason prompt companies to research more effectively now?
http://www.waterstof.info/SavedPages/AirbusCryoPlane.pdf (http://www.waterstof.info/SavedPages/AirbusCryoPlane.pdf)
http://www.h2mobility.org (http://www.h2mobility.org/)

I also understand that the examples above are a grain of sand on a beach with this condition as oils have everything to do with everything. Changes in our oil reliance should act faster. The examples above are great steps forward, at least research and changes have begun. If a situation of a global recession and ‘Armagedon’ approaches in the years to come as prophesied by some, I think the decline of aviation will be the least of our worries. No industry or person is safe.

CaptR, your posts have no doubt opened our eyes to this looming situation. I cannot fathom government powers not acting on this situation now there is a ‘hype’ about it. Some say we have oil reserves some say not. Some say we will act in time some say not.

CaptR, be careful on your acreage…
“Should you be getting a gun and hiding in the woods? If a "hole- up-in-the-woods-with-guns" model of preparation appeals to you, I encourage you read as much as possible about other civilizations that have crashed and burned. While the survivalist model works in Hollywood, it often fails in reality. When our society collapses, the rural areas may well go first. In that case, little enclaves of survivalists sitting on stockpiles of food and weapons will be too tempting a target for the bandit cultures that evolve in post collapse rural areas.”

[airbusthreetwenty]

The 4corners program is avalable for viewing online.

Here's the link for all interested


http://abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/20060710/

[CaptR]

I don't see Govt doing anything major at least prior to the senate report late Oct this year............and even then it will be incremental at best knowing this Govt.

In regards to my acreage….....I have no interest in a "hole- up-in-the-woods-with-guns" model of preparation - I prefer the informed community concepts myself........as I feel from my research that it is a more localised rather than globalised economy and community that will come out on tops with peak oil.......

Here's to keeping a weather eye on the issue and being prepared.....the risk of not being prepared is to costly

Cheers
Capt R

[captaindejavu]

CaptR,

You are soooooo SPOT ON and are not alone. Just last week I've committed to a large property on a beautiful stretch of coast (of the type to envision), for exactly the reasons you state. And I feel very, very comfortable with the pending lifestyle change and mammoth paradigm shift in my life.

Watch out, everyone, for the US economy is failing and will snap in the VERY near future, with planetary economic implications. PLEASE listen to CaptR's words of wisdom.

There are more of us out there of like-mind in this than you know, and who are actually doing something practical and natural about preserving our future happiness and sustainability. As sure as hell, that future AIN'T in the airline industry any more !! Please research all you can, make up your own minds, and start planning. But, please, don't put it off. The consequences of delay are not worth thinking about. Those who have done the legwork know there's not much time left. :ooh:

[tinpis]

In OZ it can go more down the ****ter than it is?:uhoh:
Bought the block in Qld, studied permaculture, got the veggie patch going,
Enui have you studied the Neaderthals that populate QSLD?

You better learn how to fight.

[Shitsu_Tonka]

Amazing reading some of the comments on the 4C forum, that there are still people out there who say the government should do something about it!

Well they are - they have just wasted an entire week deciding who told fibs and who didn't - fiddling while Rome burns as they say. Our media, equal to the task, have spent a week running around following them asking banal questions, analysing nuances and interviewing other media about how they interpreted the nuances.

And people still look to the government for ideas? Jesus wept.

When will people realise that life goes on despite the our political process - not because of it.

[desmotronic]

All i can say is sell all your qantas shares, borrow as much as you can and buy BHP, WPL and my personal favourite AWE. :ok: :ok: :ok: :E

[badarse]

CaptR, you have a pm.

[Duff Man]

Four Corners did a comprehensive analysis of the problem and implications, but seemed to skirt around the local political position. Yes our governement is avoiding the issue, on a typical term-to-short-term basis. And our opposition parties? Forget the greens, they can't govern. And the ALP? Taking a stand on IR (thank god) seems to be all the press Kim gets. Yet surprisingly for me at least, there is a long term policy on their site.
http://www.alp.org.au/download/now/051019__developing_the_australian_fuel_industry.pdf

[bushy]

If we want to see how to live using very little petrol, we just have to look at how our grandparents lived. Previous generations were able to live using only a few litres of petroleum products each month. It's possible, and healthier.

There are other ways too. If you look at Paris, you find that many people live in the centre of the city, and have food supplies in the same block. They do not have the mad scramble, sitting in cars burning petrol and polluting, twice a day like we do, to get to our homes. Some australian commuters travel huge distances every day.

The hybrids must become common. But let's think further. Thousands of australian cars are driven about 10km to work every morning, parked in the sun for eight hours and driven home again every day. Many,many kilowatts of solar energy heat those cars every day, and we use fossil fuels to cool them.

Why aren't they hybrids, with solar cells, and good insulation in the roof, so we can capture this energy???.

Much of what we do is unsustainable.

[Brian Abraham]

See www.peakoil.net for opinions of some you would expect to have an insight.

[ccy sam]

hmmmm lets see......North Korean launching missiles into the Sea of Japan and swapping nuclear technology with Iran....Iraq....Somalia....Israel and Palestine.....George W......Terrorist bombs in India....Afghanistan......Russia v Checneya.....Bird flu....trees growing in antartica.....Putain Dictator of Russia....The Tora Bora Mad man....black market in nuclear materials.....etc etc. We will be LUCKY to run out of oil before we all kill each other.:ugh:

[skyshow]

More interesting points in "Peak Oil (http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?t=234127)" from D & G General Aviation & Questions

Isn't it all so interesting?!? :ooh:

[oicur12]

It is generally agreed that hubbards peak is closer to reality than our so called leaders would have you believe, for obvious reasons.

Alternatives will be sought and found, as someone pointed out, necessity is the mother of all invention.

BUT be assured, it is a serious issue and unfortunately we are just seeing the beginning of the oil wars. I would suggest that nearly all geo political strategizing being undertaken by the worlds key global players centres around accessing oil and gas, influencing the sale and pricing of oil, controlling the distribution of oil and the using the flow of oil and gas as an instrument of control.

Every Government has a stake in the oil wars in every region of the world. Conflict in Timor, Iraq, Afghanistan, Colombia and Somalia. Possible future conflict in Iran, Syria, KSR, North Korea and the Caspian region. Even past conflict such as Eastern Europe in the ninties. From full scale conflict in the Middle East “rose revolution’s” in Georgia, it all comes back to oil.

The biggest emerging conflict over energy will obviously be china. The US is throwing all of its effort behind using access to oil as a means of controlling Chinese expansion and its threat to global greenback hegemony. He who controls the spigot, controls he who needs the oil.

[404 Titan]

oicur12

Every Government has a stake in the oil wars in every region of the world. Conflict in Timor, Iraq, Afghanistan, Colombia and Somalia. Possible future conflict in Iran, Syria, KSR, North Korea and the Caspian region. Even past conflict such as Eastern Europe in the ninties. From full scale conflict in the Middle East “rose revolution’s” in Georgia, it all comes back to oil.

I’m sorry but you have been watching too many conspiracy theories. The reality is most wars over the past 100 years have been caused by religion and racial tensions, not oil. Even the current conflicts in the Middle East are the direct result of Muslim extremists and the Christian zealots of the extreme far right that exist in abundance in the southern USA.

[Duff Man]

404 Titan, religion and racism are the wedges used by governments to manipulate their people's supprt for their own power games, not the cause per se.

Mmmmmmmm wedges.

[404 Titan]

Duff Man

Yes and no. I agree the US government mislead the US people and to a lesser extent the rest of the world why they had to invade Iraq. The real reason was not because of weapons of mass destruction. Nor was it to steal their oil as some conspiracy theorist would have you believe. It was a regime change pure and simple to create another US and Western ally in the region that will guarantee oil supply in the future and won’t be a threat to Israel. The Jewish influence in US politics is very powerful and organised and shouldn’t be underestimated. They’ve had a lot to do with what has happened over the last three years by garnering political support from the religious far right, Bush’s largest support group. By doing this it was hoped it would destabilise those countries that denounce Israel, the West and the US and constantly threaten to cut off oil supply, i.e. Iran. Recent events would suggest that this is starting to happen.

Civil wars tend to be a little different. What we now have in Iraq is essentially a civil war on religious factional grounds and the US and its allies are stuck in the middle. Religion has for the last 2000 years been by far the largest cause of wars on this planet. Humans by our very nature just like other primates are tribal and clan orientated. It is only natural for us to want to be the most powerful and dominant tribe or clan on the block. All we are seeing is this same thing but on a global scale.

[CaptR]

Regardless of the causes of wars, the issue remains re Peak Oil. For your interest one can review several sound and scientific studies in relation to peak oil in military circles. The most widely publicized is the September 2005 report prepared for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. It states “The doubling of oil prices from 2003-2005 is not an anomaly, but a picture of the future. Oil production is approaching its peak; low growth in availability can be expected for the next 5 to 10 years.”

The report depicts the likely shape of future geopolitics: “In conclusion, we are clearly entering a very different period for global energy markets and relations. We shall continue to face geopolitical risks and uncertainties and concerns around energy security will continue to rise. Petroleum will remain the most strategic and political energy commodity with natural gas running a close second. .…The roles of leading actors in the global energy system will also change as the center of gravity for oil production shifts back towards the Middle East and Central Asia….Oil wars are certainly not out of the question.”

There are numerous other good articles published by Govt Departments similiar to the one above.

Happy research

CaptR

[oicur12]

404 Titan

“The reality is most wars over the past 100 years have been caused by religion and racial tensions, not oil.”

As duff man pointed out, all leaders will exploit religious belief in order to motivate the masses to engage in violence but there is generally an agenda at stake too complex to be understood by those perpetuating the violence. It is no coincidence that Bush initially coined the phrase “just crusade” when referring the attack on Afghanistan in 2001.

Peak oil is driving the foreign policy objectives of most industrialized countries for a number of reasons such as refinery costs, extraction points and transport routes, choke points, oil bourse’s and oil marker’s and currency denomination. Most of these issues are difficult to explain with a 10 second Fox News Channel sound bite so instead we are led to believe that Iraq posed an imminent threat to the US, Iran alone is fuelling the violence in the Middle East and that North Korea has nuclear weapons capable of reaching the American heartland. Only when we as consumers become compliant and accept what our leaders are telling us can the violence begin.

“. . . Nor was it to steal their oil as some conspiracy theorist would have you believe. It was a regime change pure and simple to create another US and Western ally in the region that will guarantee oil supply in the future. .”

The invasion of Iraq will benefit the US and its allies in many ways but they did not embark on this “crusade” to simply steal oil.

“. . . and won’t be a threat to Israel.”

I agree with you that Israel is a particularly powerful force behind US intentions in the Gulf.

Capt R,

“The roles of leading actors in the global energy system will also change as the center of gravity for oil production shifts back towards the Middle East and Central Asia”

Central Asia, namely the gas fields on the Caspian, will be where the next Russian/Chinese/American chess game will be played. Take a look at where the permanent US bases in Iraq have been built and how close to Baku they are and a greater understanding of the Iraq war will develop.

Iraq, Iran, Syria and North Korea are simply small chess pieces.

The US current account deficit and the emergence of china as a threat to US dollar hegemony are the real game.

[Duff Man]

oicur12, have you been reading "Future: Tense" by Gwynne Dyer (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future:_Tense_:_The_Coming_World_Order)? His thesis makes the same point on US CAD and USD hegemony. A recommended read!

[skyshow]

Came across this story recently... Its from 17/11/2005 but has some interesting points...

INTERVIEW - Branson's Virgin to Go Green for Jet Fuel

DUBAI - Tired of skyrocketing jet fuel prices, Virgin Atlantic Airways boss Richard Branson said on Wednesday he plans to turn his back on hydrocarbons and use plant waste to power his fleet.
"We are looking for alternative fuel sources. We are going to start building cellulosic ethanol plants (to make) fuel that is derived from the waste product of the plant," he told Reuters in an interview in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates (UAE).
"It is 100 percent environmentally friendly and I believe it's the future of fuel, and over the next 20 or 30 years I think it actually will replace the conventional fuel that you get out of the ground."
Branson did not say where Virgin would build his factories or how economically viable cellulosic ethanol would prove. "We are in the early days," he admitted.
He said cellulosic ethanol "is the biproduct you get from the waste product (of plants), the bits in the field that get burned up," as opposed to ethanol which is produced from fruit or corn for example.
Branson was in Dubai, a booming trade and tourism hub in the UAE, to promote a daily service between London and Dubai that Virgin plans to launch in March 2006.
He also said two Gulf Arab rulers had asked him to set up Virgin space flights in their countries, but gave no detail.
The ethanol idea is part of Branson's broader plans to cut Virgin's fuel bill. In September, he said he was looking at building a conventional oil refinery in a bid to ease a global shortage of refined fuel, including jet fuel.

GOING GREEN
In early September, Virgin raised its fuel surcharge on tickets sold in Britain to 30 pounds ($55.4) after oil prices touched $70 per barrel in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Price have since retreated to below $60 per barrel.
Branson's Virgin Group has a 51 percent stake in Virgin Atlantic as well as interests in Virgin Cargo, Virgin Nigeria and Australia's Virgin Blue. He said the combined fleet was almost 100 aircraft.
"We use around 700 million gallons of fuel a year between the four airlines. I hope that over the next 5 to 6 years we can replace some or all of that (with ethanol)."
Branson said the launch of the Dubai flight would pave the way for more Virgin brands to enter the Gulf Arab states, which are witnessing an economic boom on the back of high oil prices.
"I'm sure Virgin will expand into some other areas. Hotels is certainly the vision that we are exploring, if we can find the right site...Financial services is certainly a possibility."
Branson opened a Virgin Megastore outlet in Dubai on Wednesday but he ruled out a move into cellphones in the region.
Virgin Atlantic will compete against Emirates airline on the London-Dubai route.
Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed al-Maktoum, chairman of Emirates, is also head of Dubai's civil aviation authority, but Branson dismissed suggestions that Emirates had an unfair edge.
"I think Dubai is one of the most open, pro-competitive countries there is. We didn't have to ask for permission to come here, they just let us come and compete," Branson said. "This region is expanding rapidly. My belief is that Emirates in 50 years time will be around, I think Virgin Atlantic will be around, let's see about the others," he said when asked about state-owned Qatar Airways and Abu Dhabi's Etihad Airways.

And for cars...
June 29, 2006: In a first for an Australian car manufacturer, GM Holden today announced it would begin applying an "E10 suitable" label to its imported vehicles from July 1, 2006. Holden's decision to include its imported vehicle range supports the Prime Minister's target to achieve 350 megalitres of biofuels consumption by 2010.

[hoggsnortrupert]

From a book I am presently reading :Aircrew by Bruce Lewis, a Cassell Military Paperback.
In 1943/44, Germany was producing Synthetic Fuels and Oils, from its Wesseling production facility.
Q: Would anyone know why this is not done, or why Governments are not looking at this.:suspect:
I do not know the costs of producing the likes, but one would think it would have to be a favourable alternative at $ 70 per barrel?.:hmm:
HSnort

[oicur12]

Duffman,

I have not read that book. A good source of info is “The Dollar Crisis” by IMF consultant Richard Duncan.

He points out how the abandonment of the dollar standard in the early seventies resulted in a quantum shift in global economic dynamics that have resulted in huge current account deficit problems in countries such as Australia and the US. Such deficits have been manageable until the arrival of the Euro and the alternatives it will provide oil producing countries such as Iran, KSR and Venezuela. The shadow plays we see around these countries have little to do with WMD, human rights or even access to oil.

The two biggest issues facing us in the coming decades are global warming and the collapse of US dollar hegemony. Such a collapse will re write the traditional rules regarding global geo politics with conflict being an inevitable by product.

I fear that Israel’s foray into Lebanon this week is merely the commencement of US attempts to draw Iran into a proxy war with Israel.

This could get very interesting.

[max autobrakes]

Hell just put a commode in every passenger seat and run the old bus on methane. Shoudn't be any shortage of that if one considers what is served as food on airlines these days. :ooh:

[rockrover]

They've just signed an agreement to construct two coal-to-liquid conversion plants in Northern China.Each plant will produce 80000 barrels of oil per day at a cost of $40 per barrel.

I was on this site for 10 mins and there's already almost 950,000 barrels used.Do you really think they will be enough!

[Shitsu_Tonka]

Arithmetic Check: 86 Million BPD = a bit less than 600,000 per 10 minutes.

But the point is taken.

[CaptR]

"A wing, a lot of loans, and a prayer" (Finance, June 13) is a good overview of the structure, complexities, and risks of the U.S. Airways -America West deal, but there's one enormous sword hanging over the airline industry that wasn't mentioned: fuel costs. Recently the head of the International Air Transport Assn. said that based on $47 per barrel oil, the industry will lose $6 billion this year. Almost no one is predicting any reduction in oil prices within the next two years, and there's a quickly growing consensus that we may have already entered the era of permanently expensive oil. (Yes, I'm referring to the Hubbert's curve of peak oil production that is just starting to get widespread attention.)

I think it's clear that, barring any stunning technological advancement, we're seeing the beginning of not just a downsizing and realignment of the airline sector but its complete transformation into a much-higher-priced, lower-volume boutique industry. For the sake of those who are employed in that industry, I hope I'm wrong.

The above article can be found at http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_27/c3941146_mz030.htm

[Chimbu chuckles]

CaptR in the 70s oil shock a barrel of oil was more expensive than now in inflation corrected $...about $100/barrel.

In those days jet engines were nowhere near as fuel miserly as now...and yet the airline system didn't grind to a halt.:rolleyes:

Just recently I have heard several talking heads from the US futures markets suggest that $20-30/barrel is the current 'we are scared' premium...or more accurately the 'make hay while the sun shines premium' attributable to North Korea and the ME.

What NK, Isreal or Lebanon have to do with the price of a barrel of oil escapes me at this minute.:ugh:

That leaves $12-20 per barrel as the premium we are paying for the current supply problems.

The current price of a barrel of crude has NOTHING to do with Hubert's Peak or Peak Oil...the clamering paranoia of the Doomsayers is a direct result of the current price though....and will die away to a murmur when oil again falls to historically average prices.

Do you honestly think western Govts will let the international travel infrastructure implode because of the greed of the futures markets?

How many Trillions would be wiped from the various Bources worldwide if International travel collapses under a raft of airline bankruptcies caused by greedy futures traders?

If oil was currently at $40/barrel because of the current supply and demand issues we wouldn't be having these doomsayer predictions... all the rest of the current price/barrell is manipulation by the market. Even 'the market' admits that in a indirect way.

[404 Titan]

For all the Dooms Dayers

What your argument fails to come to terms with is it doesn’t take into account the economic effects of continued high oil prices. These are some quotes I made from D&G General Aviation & Questions from a similar thread that was running there:

Economics 101 says there is a fundamental flaw in your and the whole dooms day scenario argument. As demand increases and supply decreases prices rise, yes. But only to a point and that point is fast approaching. If there was a reduction in supply as you would argue this will only speed up the inevitable. Once consumers incomes can’t absorb the ever increasing fuel prices and everything else that goes with it anymore, demand for everything not just fuel will collapse taking the price of oil with it. If you don’t believe me have a look at history. It’s all happened before. And the worst effected countries are usually the emerging markets, i.e. China, India etc.

It is also worth pointing out that the longer oil prices remain high the more the pressure is on to find more oil and alternative fuels. While the use hybrid vehicles and the use of such fuels as natural gas and bio fuels in road transport, which is by far the greatest consumer of oil, is commendable, it is in my opinion only a stop gap measure. I believe if we come back and looked at this topic in 30 to 50 years almost all cars and other road transport will powered by Hydrogen fuel cells. The internal combustion engine will be a thing of the past due to its very inefficient conversion of the fuels potential energy into kinetic energy. Infact in the not to distant future I can see governments around the world banning them as newer technology becomes available.

If the price climbs too much it will break the back of the consumer and a recession will follow. Prices are not entirely based on how much of the black stuff there is in the ground but how much the consumer is prepared to pay for it. It is becoming quite obvious that that time is fast approaching. It is widely accepted that high oil prices have the same effect on world economies as high interest rates. You can’t just keep jacking them up and not expect something to give. With both of them rising the limbs at the end of the branch are starting to look awfully thin indeed.

One has to wonder why those that peddle this whole Peak Oil Dooms day scenario completely ignore the whole economic side of the equation. Could it be that some that have been spreading these fears are actually fronts for agendas being pushed by the very loud environmental lobby groups around the world? What I would like to know is who is funding these people and organisations that have conducted studies and made remarks about Peak Oil especially in the last six to twelve months? And where were these people back in 2002 when oil was USD$22.00 a barrel. It all seems too convenient that they have just now decided to speak out.

[oicur12]

Chimbu,

“In those days jet engines were nowhere near as fuel miserly as now...and yet the airline system didn't grind to a halt.”

No, it didn’t. But the industry was not flush with excess capacity then like it is today, in fact, quite the opposite.

“What NK, Israel or Lebanon have to do with the price of a barrel of oil escapes me at this minute.”

They have a great deal to do with Oil.

The moves recently made by Israel into Lebanon were not in response to the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers. It is a battle that has been planned for years and is the beginning of a wider agenda (It is no coincidence that large shipments of additional JDAMS arrived in Israel in recent months). A key objective of the current crisis in the region is the reconstruction of the Mosul Haifa oil pipeline. Success would ensure US/EU access to Iraqi light sweet crude via relatively safe ports in the Mediterranean instead of relying on extracting oil from the Persian Gulf via the critical straights of Hormuz. It is no coincidence also, that the anti Syrian rhetoric has been ratcheted up in recent weeks as regime change in that country is required in order for the plan to go ahead (moderate Jordan has refused to allow the pipeline to pass through its borders).

Lebanon is being used to provide justification for a longer term proxy confrontation with (Syria and) Iran for reasons more to do with oil and gas than with nuclear weapons. It may or may not succeed.

North Korea is in the gun sights of Washington as it is to become a key player in the proposed oil/gas pipeline from Sakhalin to Shanghai. Missiles are to NK as WMD are to Iraq, a simple justification used to scare the public into consent.

All over the world, western foreign policy is occupied almost exclusively with the looming crisis over energy - access to it, control of it, pricing of it and ensuring it can be used as an instrument of control over ones enemies in Somalia, Colombia, South East Asia, North Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, Eastern Europe.

The point I am making here is that we are watching new wars unfold in front of our eyes for reasons that make little sense (Sep 11 / WMD / Missiles) unless you factor in natural resources. If there is so much oil out there then why is my Government and probably yours spending so much money fighting for it.

Chimbu, do you know something they don’t?

“Do you honestly think western Govts will let the international travel infrastructure implode because of the greed of the futures markets?”

Do you honestly think the US Government will stand by and watch China gain total control of oil and gas reserves in Central Asia and the Gulf States in order to prevent harming the “international travel infrastructure”? I doubt it.

[sonhouse]

Let us assume that the Devil does exist and he is to gain control of the human race, then what better way should he do so than the control of the limited resource of this planet we know as oil.
Give it to us, suck us into the dependancy and then as a highlight of universal torment slowly take it slowly away from us.
As we explore the alternates to the Devils gift we are faced with Global damage due to the alternatives.
We have abundant supply of coal and other resources but every resolved grain comes at a cost to ouir deminishing enviroment.
Uranium as we know distroys our human cellure activity given its limited control behavior.
We have the technogology to sustain our current insatiable desire for energy but all at a cost.
I'm sure the Devil is laughing

[The_Cutest_of_Borg]

.......riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight...............:eek:

[Chimbu chuckles]

oicur12 the arabs have been trying to undo Isreal for 65 years...this is just the latest in a long line of attempts.

What is going on in the ME is arab extremists hanging on to power the way all extremists hang on to power...by instilling fear in the people within their sphere of influence...namely the Lebanese and Palestinians.

Lebanon is a classic example...a beautiful place re building after a horrendous war...and now runed again...interestingly I saw some Lebanese interviewed this evening on CNN up in the mounains away from the fighting. Well healed and well educated young Lebanese...asked who was at fault they mentioned Syria, Iran and the leaders of Hezbolah...not Israel.

While the extremists can maintain the violence and point at Israel as the instigator they maintain power. If true detent is allowed to flourish and dialogue replaces guns and rockets the extremists lose their power.

For 65 years every attempt to crush Isreal has failed dismally...you'd think the arabs would work it out by now and give up...I think the average arab in the streets would live happily side by side with the Isrealis given half a chance...but they won't be given that chance and it isn't Israel's fault.

Israel is a fact...it will never go away. What many in the west seem to have forgotten is sometimes you just have to fight. Israel has never had a long enough period of peace to be allowed to forget this.

While western politicians talk of 'measured' or 'proportional' response the Isrealis know that is just a good way to get more people killed.

Hezbolah exists only to see the State of Israel destroyed. That can only mean one thing...all Israelis killed. Interesting that all the arabs ever seem to achieve is lots of dead arabs.

Like all extremists power is all that counts...not the lives of the people they purport to represent.

I personally find it difficult to find Israel's response out of proportion...65 years of being attacked with no other motive than your utter destruction would leave all of us a bit hair triggered.

65 years the arabs have been trying this on....it's got feckall to do with oil.

Everyone wants the same things in life...food, shelter and education and the chance for a better life for their children. Doesn't matter whether you are Jewish, Arab, Iranian. Syrian, British or Australian.

Everyone except the leaders of Hezbolah, Al asqa and the PLO...among others. They just want power.

[404 Titan]

oicur12

You know I prefer to live by the K.I.S.S. principal. That explanation is so far out there that it would make a cheap “B” grade novel or some over hyped, trashy Hollywood flick look great by comparison. My parents are very good lifelong friends with a very prominent Australian diplomat who will remain anonymous and I recall asking him a few years ago about all the conspiracy theories regarding the Middle East, 911 etc and he said quote “The conspiracy theorists usually have an opinion and underlying agenda which is opposite to the true cause of the event”. My advice is keep it simple and the truth will usually stare you in the face.

[The Professor]

Titan 404, most political analysts would agree that the the reason conflict occurs is extremely complex and often has many root causes that allow conflict to occur when such causes compliment each other. Such is the case with the Arab/Israeli conflict. It is not something for which the KISS principle applies and suggesting that unclear motives such as natuaral resources are at play does not a conspiracy theory make. I too saw an interview with a Lebanese couple pointing the blame toward Iran but by far most people interviewed on BBC and CNN have had just a little beef with Israel.

[404 Titan]

The Professor

I’m sorry but most political analysts wouldn’t know what was really going on in the political world if it came up and bit them on the bum. This also applies with foreign diplomacy and the politics that goes with it. What tends to be the overriding driver of most countries foreign policy, and this is straight from the same Australian diplomat I mentioned before, is to strengthen their own economies and therefore the living conditions and prosperity of their citizens. Obviously lobby groups have a part to play here and can be seen in some countries foreign policies.

What is going on with Israel and the other Middle Eastern countries is the same as what has been going on for the last 2000 years. The Arabs hate the Jews and the Jews hate the Arabs. This was complicated by the creation of the Jewish state of Israel after the Second World War. Some Arab counties stated aim is to destroy the Jewish state. All we are seeing is Israel defend itself. It is nothing more, nothing less. It certainly isn’t the part of a wider agenda to draw Syria or Iran into the conflict as some may espouse, but if they should choose to become more involved than what they currently are by supporting Hezbollah, then so be it. I doubt though it will play out that way.

I ask you, what do you think Australia would do if a Terrorist organisation in Indonesia had rocket technology that could reach most Australian capitals and they started using them? After all we are part of the Western Infidels that they wish to destroy. We certainly wouldn’t sit by and let them kill our citizens. We would defend ourselves. That is exactly what Israel is doing.

Most wars are started by a very simple set of circumstances. Conspiracy theories have surrounded almost all wars for the last couple of hundred years but once looked back on are usually proved to be wrong.

[The Professor]

Sorry Professor but those links are a little too extreme for my liking.

You could show indentical pictures from every war fought down through history since the camera was invented...they prove nothing one way or another.

We don't need pictures of the victims of warfare on this website...especially not children...and I view all the children in those pictures as victims whether alive or dead, Israeli or Lebanese.

That website is clearly very biased in it's views in one direction. You have no proof that the children writing on the shells are Israeli. You have no proof that they are recent and not years old, You have no proof that the shells pictured are the ones that were used to inflict the suffering in the other pictures.

It is sensationalist, emotive propaganda....and has no place on this website.

Woomera

[Jetsbest]

Couldn't have summed it up better. Ta.:D

[oicur12]

Chimbu,

I agree with many of your comments. Unfortunately, most of your arguments can apply to both sides.

“. . .by instilling fear in the people within their sphere of influence” is precisely what leaders in the west have been doing for decades. Those citizens of the “evil” nations do not have a monopoly on manipulation and media control, they just do it more overtly than here in the “good” countries.

“65 years the arabs have been trying this on....it's got feckall to do with oil.”

You don’t think oil was a major factor behind Britain carving up the Middle East in the years following WWII?

Let’s face it, if the Arabs didn’t have oil and Israel was populated by Eskimos, the current conflict would not even rate a mention on page 3 of the newspaper. Why is it so important? Why does the US spend more on arming a country the size of New Jersey than nearly any other country on Earth?

Titan,

“What tends to be the overriding driver of most countries foreign policy . . is to strengthen their own economies and therefore the living conditions and prosperity of their citizens”.

No, the “overriding driver of most countries foreign policy” is to protect the systems that allow those in power to retain control.

“I ask you, what do you think Australia would do if a Terrorist organisation in Indonesia had rocket technology that could reach most Australian capitals and they started using them?”

You mean Delta Thor rocket technology or bottle rocket technology?

[oicur12]

Chimbu,

I agree with many of your comments. Unfortunately, most of your arguments can apply to both sides.

“. . .by instilling fear in the people within their sphere of influence” is precisely what leaders in the west have been doing for decades. Those citizens of the “evil” nations do not have a monopoly on manipulation and media control, they just do it more overtly than here in the “good” countries.

“65 years the arabs have been trying this on....it's got feckall to do with oil.”

You don’t think oil was a major factor behind Britain carving up the Middle East in the years following WWII?

Let’s face it, if the Arabs didn’t have oil and Israel was populated by Eskimos, the current conflict would not even rate a mention on page 3 of the newspaper. Why is it so important? Why does the US spend more on arming a country the size of New Jersey than nearly any other country on Earth?

Titan,

“What tends to be the overriding driver of most countries foreign policy . . is to strengthen their own economies and therefore the living conditions and prosperity of their citizens”.

No, the “overriding driver of most countries foreign policy” is to protect the systems that allow those in power to retain control.

“I ask you, what do you think Australia would do if a Terrorist organisation in Indonesia had rocket technology that could reach most Australian capitals and they started using them?”

You mean Delta Thor rocket technology or bottle rocket technology?

[gaunty]

We can only hope that the Australian Lebanese repatriated from their local brothers sh!tfight in Beirut that threatens world peace, who declared their "love" for Australia, will, "counsel" their youth who feel it is their Australian democratic right to abuse and violate Australian women and beat up on Australian freedoms to enjoy Australia.

[The Professor]

Woomera said - You have no proof that the children writing on the shells are Israeli.

Except that they were standing in front of a Merkava tank.

Woomera said - You have no proof that they are recent and not years old, You have no proof that the shells pictured are the ones that were used to inflict the suffering in the other pictures.It is sensationalist, emotive propaganda....and has no place on this website.

True, it is. Why then do you allow Chimbu chuckles to refer to CNN when they present nothing more than sensationalist, emotive propoganda too.

Woomera, have you been to media school or do you just cencor the things that dont agree with your side of the argument.

[Woomera]

I don't consider posting links to pictures of dead and mangled 4 year olds is appropriate to this thread topic....or any other that might be started on this website.

Chuckles made his point with words and is as entitled to his opinion as anyone...if he starts posting links in the same vein as your links he will be treated identically.

Believe me if I or the other Woomeras started censoring everything we didn't personally agree with this website would be very quiet indeed...in fact it would implode.

Is that clear enough for you?

Woomera

[hoggsnortrupert]

Contact on the port Bow Captain!
What is it Mr Spock?
I don't know Jim! my sensors show it to be powered by some sort of fossil fuel Jim !
What is it Spock?
Well jim it appears to be some form of ancient aviation!
BUT NOT AS WE KNOW IT JIM!:E
Some interseting web site's:
www.automotivedigest.com/view
www.nytimes.com/2006
An article 26th July 1979 by Alice M Rivlin at
www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm
Another by Thom Shanker
www.nytimes .com/2006/05/14/us/14fuel
And another by Matthew L Wald Wed July 5th 2006
www.iht.com
Chr's
HSnort:ok:

[maralinga]

As 404 Titan stated " What is going on with Israel and the other Middle Eastern countries is the same as what has been going on for the last 2000 years. The Arabs hate the Jews and the Jews hate the Arabs."

Interesting thing, it was with the assistance of various jewish armies that the muslims were able to defend Medina and save Mecca in what was known as "The Battle of the Trench"

[ennui]

My apologies to all for a personal post.
To put the entire middle east conflict into a perspective that I currently adhere to (I am always open to debate) :
Imagine a piece of Australia (Lets say Wollongong through to Newcastle and out to the base of the blue mountains) carved up by the british colonial powers after WW11.
All traditional land owners forcibly evicted by the new settlers, (thats our parents), with us growing up in "temporary concentration camps", poor and malnourished, with the only available education being provided by religous leaders that are financially supported by fundamentalists with an agenda (apart from that of personal power) of recovering what had been rightfully ours.
What would your parents do, what would you be?
Empathy is a powerful tool.
The creation of the Jewish state by the British was never meant to succeeed.
Peace for all the children of Abraham depends upon the eradication of poverty and unbiased education for all. Then perhaps, peace in the middle East become achievable.

[prospector]

It would appear that the UN is only going to be mentioned because one of their Observation Posts was blown up.

They have been there, supposedly observing, since the Israeli"s pulled out of Southern Lebanon a number of years ago,

If they could not observe the multitude of rockets, and preparation for conflict that the hezbollah were busy cooking up, then surely all the righteous clammer when their ""Observation Post!!!" is not observed in the middle of clusters of rocket launchers is overkill???

[404 Titan]

ennui

And the Jews just mysteriously appeared in Palestine in 1949. I got news for you they have been there for thousands of years as well. I would put it to you they had just as much right to the land as the Palestinians. They would tell you more. What the British did with the help of the Americans and Russians was to try and quell the fighting that had gone on between the Jews and Arabs for thousands of years. As can be seen it didn’t work and quite frankly I can’t see what will. To say one group has more rights to the land then the other in my opinion is naïve and shows a total lack of understanding of the problem.

[Shitsu_Tonka]

Meanwhile....

http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/27/news/companies/exxon/index.htm

Exxon Mobil makes over $10 billion profit

[Brian Abraham]

Exxon Mobil makes over $10 billion profit

Gives me a nice warm inner glow that I was able to contribute to the company's good fortune. The year I left the boss Lee Raymond only took a $2 million payrise for the year for a total of $38 million US in an effort to control costs. Me? I got nothing - and not the only one. :(

[oicur12]

"And the Jews just mysteriously appeared in Palestine in 1949"

No, but the borders did.

[CaptR]

Gudday all - well its been an interesting thread, a good variety of comments and thoughts from many people.........I am not a doomsayer, nor do I really care about politics - to much of that crap these days be it on Government, world bodies or in business......

The theory of peak oil is sound, 7 years research I have done has convinced me. I see some of the same tired old debunking arguements that the people who have posted haven't really researched. Well its not my job to tell you everything.........just remember when the airlines go bust and there is one or two flights a day between Syd and Bris for this who can afford it - I told you so! And when you cannot afford a house due to the excessive interest rates and depression, and you cannot afford to drive a car but have to catch public transport everywhere - remember I told you so.....

For those who doubt - watch what the Senate Inquiry reports in Oct this year......

It is better to plan and be prepared than lose all your hard earnt cash and assets because you failed to gain an understanding based on solid research........

And when you are all crying foul about the airlines collapsing - I will smile and think - I told them........at least I did the homework and am prepared in the best way possible - as well as earning a fair bit of dosh with put options........a bit rought really as it is your industry's demise that will set me up!!

Best Wishes
CaptR

[404 Titan]

CaptR

In one sentence you quote:
I am not a doomsayer,
But in the next you quote:
just remember when the airlines go bust and there is one or two flights a day between Syd and Bris for this who can afford it - I told you so! And when you cannot afford a house due to the excessive interest rates and depression, and you cannot afford to drive a car but have to catch public transport everywhere - remember I told you so.....
This is the doomsday scenario peddled by some in the community.

Please don’t get on this website sir when you tell us quote:
And when you are all crying foul about the airlines collapsing - I will smile and think - I told them........at least I did the homework and am prepared in the best way possible - as well as earning a fair bit of dosh with put options........a bit rought really as it is your industry's demise that will set me up!!
Because it is now clear to all that you have a vested interest in peddling the doomsday scenario for your own financial gain. I personally doubt your research goes further than quoting a few left wing/green tree hugging websites. How can you come on here and gleefully hope that people who are trying to make an honest living will lose their money, jobs etc etc. Personally I hope you lose your money because people like you are scum. I look forward to seeing you fall from grace.:mad: :yuk:

[prospector]

Capt R,
You are not allowed to be a realist.

For this effrontery you will now stand to lose all your "loose" money. Hope you don't keep any more loose money lying around then is deemed wise.

:=

[404 Titan]

prospector

Yeh alright I see you have to be the pain in the arse spelling police. My only excuse is that I wrote that post at 3:00am local time after completing a sixteen hour sector half way around the world. How good is your spelling when you are tired?

By the way, I don’t think he’s a realist, I think he’s an opportunist. There is a very big difference.

[prospector]

You may of course, like each and everyone else, think what you like. There is no way your view's hold any more water than Capt R.

If after 16 hr sectors you feel inclined to call people "scum" because you disagree with their post, then I would suggest you stick to 8 hr sectors.

[404 Titan]

prospector

Yes I do disagree with his doomsday scenario. That though wasn’t the reason for calling him what I did because in any decent society he is entitled to his opinion. The unfortunate reality is that some in this world will try and make a profit out of the misery and suffering of others. To then publicly come on this forum and gleefully acknowledge that is what he is doing in my book and many others is disgusting. It just goes to show the very low moral values some in this global community will stoop too just to try and make a buck. I just hope you sir have higher moral values than our friend CaptR but by the sound of it I doubt it.:yuk: