Forward thinking

[Low Fidelity]

Hi all,

I was just browsing the NASA ALAR reports online at work and it's stimulated the mind (a rare occurrence!).

To those of you with many hours up at the pointy end do you believe that some guys are better than others at looking into the future and predicting problems with the flight? I'm referring mainly to predicting deviation in the flight path profile/energy management on approach as all sorts of factors come into play, ATC restrictions, changing winds, traffic etc...

If so is it an experience thing? are there any classic behavioural signs that their predictive ability is poor? Do you have any 'tactics' that makes you better at predicting the future course of the aircraft quickly and effectively?

Feel free to discuss any other points or tell me I'm asking strange questions, thought it would be interesting to throw out there! :D

Regards

Low Fi

[FLCH]

I'm not sure what you're specifically looking for, but yes I think experience has a lot to do with predicting any variables from the norm. Generally things are done in a routine way arrivals etc. and anything different weather for example , makes you aware that things may be adjusted, so you have to fall back on previous experiences.Sometimes you have unique experiences like your first approach to an airport in the Andes at night in marginal weather, then you go back to more basic experiences, besides sticking to the procedure like a fly on manure, you make sure you know exactly where the airplane is and heading into (call it "mild paranoia"). Classic behavioural signs someone who has poor predictive abilties ? I'd say someone who is constantly distracted by something not appropriate to the situation at hand, ie personal problems, or not feeling well (like having a nasty hangover). Thats my two cents worth of drivel, hope it helps...

[flying_elvis]

Anticipating problems has a lot to do shared expectations between the pilots and the ATC.

I look for 6000 ft abeam the field 210 kts. That's an expectation that most controllers expect at most fields. Here's where I begin to closely manage my energy.

210 downwind, 190 base, 180 dogleg, 160 to the marker. Is there anybody out there that thinks the contollers are expecting you to do something different than these speeds.

Now. If I see a guy abeam the field at 250kts I'm alerted to the possibility that I may be in the presence of a clueless pilot. You'd be surprised the number of guys I fly with that will actually try to stay at 250 kts on dogleg in the weather, because the last speed assigned to them was 250kts. This is basic airmanship.

If the frequency is congested. Nobody expects you to be at 250kts on dogleg! NOBODY! Airmanship. Shared expectations.

Now. If I'm kept abeam the field higher than 6000 feet, I'm alerted to the possibility that I may be in the presence of a clueless controller. unless it's procedure at that particular field to be higher.

I'll be watching his vectors to see if he'll be expecting me to correct his errors. I'll oblige to a point, but never hesitate to ask for relief.

I had a controller turn me base 7000 ft AGL, 10 miles from the field. No problem, as long as you take it out another 10 miles.

[BOAC]

To amplify 'airmanship' - a quote from a long-forgotten source:

"The ability to use one's superior skills to avoid having to use one's superior skills"

For me that sums it up nicely:D

I'll always remember the day one of our BA rising 'wunderkind' declared it a 'forbidden word' in our mantra - it did not fit with his chosen path to glory. Some of us older gits objected. AFAIK his path was unobstructed.

[OzExpat]

In this part of the world, one encounters the unexpected event fairly commonly. It might be associated with weather, or traffic, or even ATC/FIS. It doesn't take all that long to recognise subtle signs that "something ain't right" and, at such times, my "sphincter factor" activates.

I pre-brief my expectations for each stage of the flight and am therefore alert for anything which threatens my carefully laid plans. I also try to be alert to the possibility that my expectations might be a tad too high. Being "alert" is the key, I reckon.

[A37575]

Airmanship. The art of knowing when to dispense with the automatics and fall back on basic hand flying skills (if you have any left after being brainwashed on automatics).

[alf5071h]

Forward thinking could be the ‘projection’ (third level) element of situation awareness.
Unfortunately many of the CRM texts only describe what situation awareness is and not how to achieve (or maintain) it.
Similarly, airmanship and experience are often described as vital elements of CRM, but the means of achieving the embedded skills for these elements are difficult to define.

Self reflection is an important aspect as it provides both the discipline to control our thinking (what we look at, when, what is important, and why), and the encoding or reinforcement of flight events in memory for future recall (experiences).
The more events that are memorised, then the greater number of options there will be for the pilot to consider in his projecting process. Comparing these events with knowledge of what is important in the situation (context), the easier and quicker it will be to relate the current situation with a particular option for the future.

Thus, some of the key points are to continuously acquire ‘technical’ aviation knowledge (be a professional), reinforce experiences through self and crew debriefing, gain and maintain the highest level of situation awareness (scan and monitor; plane, path, people), and improve mental discipline. The latter involves many skills of critical thinking that can be found on the web (Google), but few are actually taught in aviation.

Tactics? Remember:-
Habits are hard to break
Automation keeps its secrets
Distractions come in many forms
Expectations can reduce awareness
Reliable systems aren’t always reliable
Watch out when you are busy or bored
It’s hard to detect something that isn’t there
Things that take longer are less likely to get done right
If something doesn’t look or feel right, then it probably isn’t right
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Unless specifically authorized everything else is forbidden.

[Low Fidelity]

Thanks guys, this is all fantastic brain food.

I'm very much of the mind (as are many many others) that the term situational awareness is flippantly applied as a catch all. It's fine (with hindsight) to determine that one has lost it but having a reasonable idea of the mechanism by which it is established is another concept altogether.

Anyway, thanks again, much appreciated =)