One more day: Irish govt due to make its PSO decisions?(Merged)

[akerosid]

Well, all going well and the govt having run out of excuses to do nothing or delay, we should be seeing a decision being made on the three main issues.

I believe these are as follows, although there could be (and I hope there might be) more:

Basically, we need three things:

1) A decision on a new terminal for Dublin Airport.
(What we need is an independently operated terminal, providing much needed competition for the DAA and sufficient growth to allow the airport to handle 30m pax by 2015).

2) A decision on the future ownership of Aer Lingus
(The airline, as we know well, needs to raise funds for future fleet purchases, particularly on the long haul. Realistically, if it's to win any sort of market support, it'll have to be over 50% of the shareholding; can't think markets would be interested in anything that maintained state control, given the govt's record. It will be interesting to see if a Golden Share is retained, or some sort of control over assets, such as LHR slots?)

3) An alleviation of the Shannon stopover, to allow more n/s flights from DUB.
(I am least confident about this, although I believe that if there is no announcement and they just leave it "as is", it will have negative consequences for the sale price of EI and may also influence the intentions of any prospective CEO. There is also the EU issue; did the govt receive the green light from the EU or, given that the EU no longer recognises the Irish/US bilateral, can the govt just go ahead and change it? An intention to change the Canadian bilateral would be welcome, but I don't expect this either.)

Well, we HOPE that tomorrow will, at last, see a decision that should have been taken a long time ago. But what will it be? Anyone want to hazard a guess (or just guess that it'll be a hazard?) as to what it might be?

[Irish Steve]

I suppose we can live in hope!

On the terminal issue, I reckon that they'll duck and run for a bit longer, in that there's so much heat on the monumental b:mad: ks that DAA have made of security, they can use the excuse that they have to look again at critical issues before deciding anything.

Yeah!, if they'd done the job properly in the first place, most of these hassles would have been avoided. Then again, I suppose we can't expect pub managers to run an international airport, and in recent years, DUB has become more of a pub and less of an airport with each change!

EI. I think it's clear that they are going to move 51% out of govt ownership, but I'm not sure they will get many takers at a sensible price, given the other uncertainties. It's no good having an airline if they can't operate from their largest base because of security problems. Another useful thing would be a chief executive, I reckon that one is going to be hard to solve, given the uncertainty. Talk about a poison challice, it speaks volumes that WW said he was gone, and BA's chief exec comes to DUB to see (recruit) him. It's only too clear that WW departed because the govt wasn't prepared to make sensible timely decisions. What's new?

SNN. Even the hardest of advocates of the SNN stopover are starting to recognise the writing on the wall, hopefully, a locally based management in SNN will start to promote the place sensibly, instead of the half a:mad: d pretence from Dublin.

IF, and it's a big IF, it were done properly, SNN could become a very useful hub for transatlantic operations, even for aircraft as big as the 380. Lots of small feeders from all over the place, in to SNN, then they all get on to a 380, and it's over and back in a reasonable time scale. If it's done right, it could work, as long as the routes and prices are put into place properly. A dream?

Maybe, but with the right economics, on both the short haul and the long haul, it could work. I could see 380's flying SNN to MIA and MCO with feeds using 737's and A320's or smaller, and the like from regional airports in the UK and some of the european states that a 380 won't fit. Other possibles are of course East coast, (JFK or similar,) and LAX. The MCO/MIA routes could be quite good, as they would get good airframe utilisation, given that the 380 is probably going to take longer to turn than the smaller aircraft, so a 9 hour flight with 3 hour turn would be a very good route if the loads can be generated. MCO has to be worth looking at with feeders in from all over the place, given the popularity of the place. Another major advantage would be clearing the pax at SNN before they board, that would be a very big plus factor with the way security and the rest of it is now.

It will be interesting to see if Bertie and the rest of them have the courage to think big and think bold for a change, recent history tends to suggest that they won't, which will be a big opportunity missed.

[akerosid]

Any moment now, as the pilgrims - devout aviation industry observers from around the world, the faithful watchers of the flying game - observe with baited breath the chimney above government buildings, we expect to see white smoke arising.

The conclave of ministers has been in the cabinet room since early this morning, deliberating, praying for guidance from Above, discussing the pros and cons of the various proposals ...

Unfortunately, so far, we've only seen wisps of black smoke. Do we wait, or will we see Cardinal Bertione come to the window overlooking Merrion Square, announcing those famous words, "Habemus policem " ... "We have a policy".

Sadly no, just black smoke (or was that just the wheels of government generating friction in protest at being pressed into action with only a few months' notice?) ...



:p

[Bearcat]

do you realise that aer lingus on its long haul fleet is back to where it dared it would never go? yes flying junkers across the atlantic....the a330's are tired and are in desperate need to be replaced.....desperate is mild to be honest.

still no cx, a crazy airline....I see FR are now flying to rome from dub....AL will lose on this

i am so frustrated with the governments inept stance. M O'L is right, Bertie is the biggest ditther and union lick for the better of himself as against the better of ireland....we are now back in the 70's with our aviaition poilicy....

terrrible for an expanding country and bob geldof was right....Banana Republic.

[Irish Steve]

just black smoke

Can't say I noticed much of that even, in amongst all the comments about the activities in Rome, I think they decided that hiding would be a safer option.

It's only too clear from posts here and in other places that the Govt has lost the plot, and are now caught between all the differing parties.

MO'L. while being an abrasive and at times offensive individual, has made some valid points, and he's not about to go away, or at least not before the next election, unless he ends up in the Joy over the High Court case.

SIPTU has Bertie by the short and curlies. I don't have much time for any of the unions, there's too much of the same attitude here that brought the unions down in the UK 20 years ago, the only difference is that there's no political party got the b:mad:s to stand up to them, especially the unions like SIPTU that represent the civil and semi state workers, who have managed to get all manner of sweeteners over the last few years, without delivering on the productivity side.

Then there's the DAA, who could just about organise a p:mad: s up in a brewery, they at least have some practice, and most of the facilities for it, they've been running Ireland's largest pub for years.

There's a need for more terminal space, a second runway, some decent infrastructure, more cargo facilities, the list is endless, and what do we see? Even the basics are being fouled up big time, that's not new work, it's the stuff they are supposed to have been doing for the last nearly3 years, and they still can't get it right, yet no heads have rolled. Typical!!

Aer lingus. There's another story altogether. For the first time in years, there's a chance that the state airline could actually become a stable and viable operation, but for all sorts of reasons, they're in limbo, no chief executive, and several other top posts unfilled, and there's no clear direction from their owners about the future, at a time when urgent and important decisions needed to be made before now.

If nothing else, if it was done right, given the location of Ireland, there are a number of routes that would be very good for the A380, with feeders in to (say) SNN from all over the place, and then onward to (say) MCO with a 380. Given the SNN pre immigration check, and the time SNN to MCO, that would be a veyr good use of an airframe, and with the right feeders from UK regionals, I reckon that flight would be pretty full most of the year, appropriately priced, and it would be getting good utilisation from the airframe. Probably only a dream, even though it could work, finding the people who could make it happen in the present climate is just too hard, there are easier ways to be employed, the fact that WW left EI and within weeks is CEO of BA has to speak volumes!!!

All in all, what we're seeing is a government that's afraid of it's own shadow. I just hope that the electorate remembers this when it's time to decide who's running things in a while, and responds accordingly.

Then again, that's like expecting pink snow!

[akerosid]

I guess the natural conclusion to my skit above (and I trust no one took offence - it was certainly not intended to be disrespectful!) is that Irish aviation needs its own Cardinal Ratzinger ... someone not afraid to kick some butt. (A bit more tolerant, hopefully!)

I'm glad to say that some little progress has been made. The oft discussed aviation lobby group, Grounded, is now up and running. It'll take some time for it to line up and roll, but we're moving in the right direction.

See it at www.grounded-ireland.com

We'll take up the challenges and fight the good fight. Although we know that things are in a bit of a mess, as Irish Steve has pointed, we've also seen that there are quite a few people passionate about the future of Irish aviation. Let's change things! :ok:

[MarkD]

Bearcat

while the 330s (remember when EI was pioneering ETOPS) are first-run, they are still mid 90s build 330s, not 1982 767s like Air Canada are operating!

EI needs a fleet update but it also needs more long haul aircraft - it seems to get regularly caught out by tech faults and to have to hire in at short notice.

However, the 330-301s are not likely to be as popular on the leasing market so for EI to try and trade in for leased 330-343Xs pending 350/787 would involve paying a premium which is not in the low cost playbook.

If the bilateral goes then a fleet expansion might bring in a few 332s or 333-343Xs for ORD/LAX (the higher gross weight permitting luxuries like IFE perhaps) and maybe SFO or other West Coast but the 301s will probably be retained indefinitely for the JFK/BOS, pending a full fleet update.

Could be talking through my @rse of course!

[Bearcat]

go see another thread about a newish cyprus 320 about to be chopped.....boeing have a bettter record than airbus re longtivity. I am in no way taking a cheap sot at the 330's but t's just frustrating to see AL slide back to the old days of flying tired machines across the pond.

[MarkD]

bearcat

I did read the thread, the 320 was 17 years old and a newer 735 was getting chopped alongside.

So?

[Irish Steve]

The phrase that sums this up is

"I've thought about it, and my final decision is maybe"!!!

Latest is that the minister will present "joined up writing" plans to cabinet "in about 2 weeks"

For details, see this (http://www.rte.ie/news/2005/0421/airport.html)

[akerosid]

It is disappointing, but maybe there is a plus side; if the delay means that the govt has taken into account the Skidmore Owings & Merrill report and is actually going to provide a long term solution, then two (and hopefully not more than three) weeks will be time well spent.

The consequences of "wasting" two weeks and coming out with something which is short term, lacking in vision and unable to give us the growth potential we need would be serious, notwithstanding what might be considered "low" expectations. We're now going to get the decision we expected in December, in May. That five months must show some evidence of thought and long term planning.

[akerosid]

He had some positive things to say, in fairness, so hopefully the wait will be worthwhile:

Aer Lingus will soon get a clear future strategy with guaranteed funding for the first time instead of the “never-ending uncertainty” and crisis management of the past, Minister for Transport Martin Cullen said today.

Speaking at the Irish Management Institute conference, Mr Cullen said he will be bringing proposals to Cabinet in coming weeks to create an efficient and modern aviation sector in the country.

These plans include the future financing of the State airline, a second terminal at Dublin Airport, expansion into the US market and increased support for Shannon and Cork airports.

[Tom the Tenor]

"The coming weeks" may be understood in any way which suits the Department of Transport.

Government, airports, airlines, unions etc are giving the public the two fingers sign.

The attitude is that if you have to tell the public anything make sure it is the most bizarre, outlandish and unbelievable as you can make it.

[akerosid]

Certainly, there is that risk, Tom. I remember, about 12 years ago, when Maire Geoghegan Quinn was in Transport and said that her decision on the stopover was due "in a matter of weeks"!

However, I think the situation is different now; there's a much greater awareness of the importance of this and I think Cullen recognises as much. The pressure will increase and I would argue that the delay will only serve to increase pressure on the government, because there will be a greater recognition of a well thought out, future focused policy.

Interestingly, this evening, Mary Harney and the Tainiste crossed swords over this; Harney is insisting, quite rightly, on competition whereas Cullen has indicated that the DAA will get to run the terminal. I sincerely hope the PDs will insist on competition; it was part of the program of government and it should be honoured. Indeed, the Tainiste hinted that she would be raising the issue with the Taoiseach.

On the plus side, however, Cullen hinted very clearly that there will be increased US access.

[Sean Dillon]

Does anyone have any info on the state of play of who is getting the Irish PSO routes that cam up for tender at the beginning of the year ?

Who's odds on favourite then ????

Could someone let me know what the routes are exactly ?

Thanks
SD

[airhumberside]

The routes are Dublin-Galway/Kerry/Knock/Sligo/Donegal/Londonderry

[akerosid]

Well, there I was, thinking a decision might be made tomorrow, 3rd May, but the news stories yesterday (a mayday warning ;) ) suggested that a decision is likely to be delayed; the PDs are digging their heels in over the whole competition area, with suggestions of fraught meetings between Ahern and Harney. Clearly, MH is not going to accept the kind of fudge that was suggested in some of the papers a while back: that a decision would be made for the DAA to build the terminal and the whole process of tendering could be put on the long finger (before ultimately being given to the DAA, once the PDs were got rid of).

It's not before time that MH digs her heels in - and no doubt she's enjoying the discomfort being caused to former PD, Cullen. However, it's pretty clear that if FF got its way on its own, the result would have been pretty dire.

Trouble is, of course, that the longer we wait for the terminal decision, the longer we (and Aer Lingus) also have to wait for a decision on the other issues.

Let's hope the delay won't be too much longer and that a useful, long term solution can be found.

[ecj]

Decision due about 22 May with new arrangements to start 22 July.
;)

[Honiley]

I'd heard through a mate that Loganair have won the contract and were indeed looking into a potential DUB base....

[symphonyangel]

Isn't it interesting that the Irish sort out how to avail themselves of the PSO and the Scots and Northern Irish sort out how to avail themselves of the UK's Route Development Fund, but the English have not found a way of supporting new flights to their regional airports?

[akerosid]

Well, believe it or not, it looks like next Tuesday, May 10th, will be the big day. It's been long enough coming. The expected decision (from what I heard in Leinster House, of all places, today), is related to Aer Lingus and not the airport terminal, although it could clearly include that if a deal was reached.

The Tainiste and the PDs are still digging their heels in and frankly, for the sake of not much more time, I'd be just as happy for a correct decision to be reached, than for the FFers to be allowed to get away with a fudge which wouldn't get us the capacity boost (not to mention a terminal being operated by someone who can give the DAA a competitive kick in the pants) we need. Hopefully a deal can be done on this, which allows long term growth; although everything still points to the North Terminal site, I still hold out a hope that sense and responsibility will prevail (yes, I know, silly me) and that the McEvaddy site might be chosen.

The intended decision should relate to the part privatisation of Aer Lingus (although whether it's just an agreement in principle or an actual decision to sell is another thing; I suspect the former) and the relaxation of the SNN stop to allow more US flights.

We'll find out next week, anyway.

[neidin]

ON PSO. Dept. in Ireland are being very tight lipped and it is being run as a true tender competition with very little dialogue with the airlines.

Lowest tender on NOC/LDY combination is from British Midland with a 145. They also plan LHR ops ex NOC as a topup. Aer Arann will struggle on that.

Lowest tender on KIR is from Ryanair. Again FR likely to win it.

Aer Arann likely to take GWY, SXL and CFN. Aer Arann had amazing PR on Friday night on Irish TV. But POC had a very personal insulting stance on MOL of FR. That will do him no favours.

The PSO contracts are being run very clean this time. There has been too many tribunals in Ireland and with freedom on information act in Ireland - it wil be a clean fight to the end.

[Tom the Tenor]

Yes, very curious that O'Ceidigh was allowed so much prime time TV last Friday night. Very curious indeed.

O'Ceidigh's big problem is that he seems to have got himself into the state that he believes what is being whispered to him by those around him and we all know what Mr O'Leary's thinks is Ryanair's biggest threat - beginning to believe too much in their own spin!

Still am happy to see Aer Arann do well and succeed - just live in the here and now and not a Tir na nOg fantasy land.

A good plan would be to get the CATIIs right at Cork. They would have a lot more satisfied customers that might give them some repeat business and you cant go too far wrong there, now can you?

[The_Bean_Counter]

Neidin

When do we find out winner of the PSO routes ?

Bean

[ProfJackRabbit]

Latest story:
Bmi to get KIR/NOC/LDY
RE CFN/GWY/SXL
FR 'not taking it seriously enough' to win KIR.

[neidin]

Winner's are due to be announced on 22 May. I expect it will get leaked earlier when they get to contract stage.

Not sure on BMI with KIR/NOC/LDY. Could be interesting to see what else they will do with the planes if they get those routes.

[runawayedge]

Neidin.....firstly I doubt we will see BMI succeed on these rotes. However, if it did happen, where do you possibly see all this spare capacity coming from? Assuming one tail were allocated to KIR, I would assume it will operate additional DUB rotations outside the PSO, so no extra capacity there. With one aircraft operating both NOC and LDY, maybe you would allocate two sectors somewhere, though it would be tight. Given BMIs experince at Knock (Glasgow and Baby to Nottingham) I don't think they will be rushing into anything. Similarly at LDY RE are not setting the world on fire with BHX and MAN, what else is available from there....would RE move on if not successful on LDY PSO. Anyway, Neidin, how are things at Knock these days, lots of management changes, any thoughts?

[metalboymike]

I hope BMI get NOC that LHR sounds very tempting and thats what the airport needs.


runawayedge
I know a bit about NOC, All I know is that the new mangement isn't going down well, Two ATCO have left but one has been hired.
The My Travel ended on SAT a sad day up there, MTL kinda start the whole NOC revivel.
Last Firday Bertie announed €1 for fire tenders which is badly needed.
An extended apron is planned for 2006 and a CAT II ils

I hope that helped.

[ProfJackRabbit]

neidin: May 22 is a Sunday.

[neidin]

Edge - did not hear about NOC MGT etc.. Please fill us in. #

BMI are in the last few for NOC/LDY with one aircraft and a second based plane for KIR. Rumours are KIR-LHR and also NOC-LHR with the extra capacity. We'll see.

FR seem to be finding the going tough against EasyJet at NOC, ORK and SNN.

Anyone know how EuroManx are doing from GWY.

[metalboymike]

When are EuroManx starting their GWY service?

[n5205e00421]

Euromanx started the 18th of april. The first week they did show up with the RJ70 but the flights were cancelled and delayed several times. Then a leased Welcome Air Do328 (prop) showed up which operates most of the flights now.

[granddaddy]

Apparently 3W do not have enough crews to operate both RJ's.One is permanently parked up at IOM.
Rumours that it is on loan to Aviation museum,apparently not true:ok:

[eastjimmy]

hi all
just wondering if any one has info regarding the re press release a while back saying they were going to increase the frequency on the ork/dub/ork route to something like 1 flt per hour in either direction???. considering taking up a posn. in dub and may try to travel every day but its very much dependant on a frequent and dare i say it reliable service.
rgs
ej

[neidin]

Yes - RE have increased summer schedule on ORK-DUB and it is I think nearly 9 flts daily. The TT is on their website as a pdf. As a regular user reliabaility has been better over last 6 weeks. Train service is also getting much better.

BMI put out a press release today saying they have applied for PSO on KIR, NOC/LDY. They also hinted at ops from KIR-LHR. That would do well - all that connecting traffic intl. Cannot see KIR being too happy with less seats on the BMI 145's.

[n5205e00421]

The Cork-Dublin flights have just been increased from 9 to 11 return flights a day.

L.

[metalboymike]

So you think its between BMI and Arann now?

[ProfJackRabbit]

The Bmi press release:
http://breakingnews.iol.ie/news/story.asp?j=142609882&p=y4z6yx588

[eastjimmy]

yeah that would be interesting to see bmi regional enter the market here, id say the various ex jetmagic flight crew personnel that went there after they went under are watching with interest. perhaps an oppertuinity to get back to the ould sod again.. may be no harm at all for them to put a little pressure on aa.
watch this space i guess... any date for an announcement???

[MarkD]

neidin

less seats but more flights if using a jungle jet. More movements = mo' money!

The kind of connections to Star Alliance airlines a bmi link to LHR would bring would be very attractive to KIR I should think.

[Cyrano]

The timing of this bmi press release is a bit puzzling. The closing date for PSO submissions was in the second half of March so I would have thought that much of the deliberation has already happened. Are bmi trying to sway things late in the game with vague (non-contractual) talk of a "possible LHR service"? Would that be with the Embraer at an off-peak time? Or with a spare LHR-based Airbus? :confused: Seems to me that - no disrespect to KIR - bmi could find something more lucrative to do with any spare LHR slots they might have.

I put this down to attempted "creative" PR - after all, the press release linked to above goes on to say:
bmi recently announced that it is launching a four times weekly long haul service from Dublin, via London Heathrow, to Mumbai in India, with services commencing from May 14, 2005.

A long-haul service from Dublin to Mumbai (that just happens to stop in Heathrow where - oops! - you have to change planes and flight numbers), eh? :hmm:

[eastjimmy]

I tend to agree with the last post, its hard to see how an emb145 could make a profit on the lhr kir route what with the cost of slots into lhr. id imagine there must be bigger fish out there for them even with an airbus. dont get me wrong am all for opening up of regional airports. it sickens me to hear friends of mine say "oh yeah were going on our holidays or whatever and wre flying from dublin" like people traveling from cork kerry etc. its just crazy. there has got to be an alternative??.. good luck to bmi if they do have a go though. at least they have a strong brand name on both sides of the pond which will no doubt boost the load factor. rgs ej:p

[neidin]

Not so sure LHR is sucha problem. For less desireable times middle of day they could get a slot ex LHR for a new route. LHR is not completely full. Also charges at LHR for an EMB 145 are not so bad. I reckon it could work.

[flyerz111]

Everyone is missing the point with BM

Here's an interesting angle - by linking with other Star Alliance partners, BM would offer single stop connections (over Dublin) from Kerry, Knock or LDY to LHR, STO, CPH, FRA, DUS, VIE etc as a single transaction, with BM codes and sold through the web and travel agencies, Diamond club points all the way etc On a single daily to Heathrow to Kerry and/or Knock (which may be a way to rotate aircraft and crews conveniently), BM would offer Kerry/Knock to the world (or at least points served by Star Alliance partners from LHR) on a single connection, ticket and fare, surely a big plus for Kerry and BM. As Arran and Lingus move more towards just selling their own flights, BM could have a major advantage.

What they earn on LHR would reduce the subsidy required for the PSO, possibly making their tender more competitive. The fact that they may fly fewer flights than Arran is irrelevant (technically) as the tender set out what was required, rather than what may be desired by interested parties.

Some creative thinking is definitely needed before the awards are made - it may depend on viewing the PSO subsidies as supporting airlines to compete with rail or to help develop UK and European access to the regions. The former is Arran, the latter BM.

[MarkD]

flyerz - add places like YYZ/YVR/YYC/YOW/YHZ too (all bmi codeshares with AC).

Now if only bmi would do LHR-ORK to keep EI honest :D

[flyerz111]

I hadn't realised AC served Dublin. Of course, AC, LH, SK, OS etc. could all codeshare on the PSO services too, really putting Kerry, Knock and LDY (I never know whether to say Derry or Londonderry - sorry) on the world map. Think about the German tourists coming to Ireland - LH all the way, ya please!

This is really food for thought - maybe the Arran and Lingus strategies for cost cutting may have an element of not seeing the wood for the trees about it?

[MarkD]

sorry flyerz, thought we were still talking about KIR-LHR. AC does serve DUB-SNN from June 16 to probably end of sept this year. bmi do not have a codeshare on that route that I know of.

I think one way to get Aer Lingus back serving Irish regional ports would be to have bmi get a pso or two. The Aer Arann relationship would get warmer too I suspect!

[thebrother]

PSO to go before Irish Cabinet for decision Tuesday. Contest is inconclusive so all down to Cabinet decision.

Other AV related issues due to be finalised on Tuesday 17th are Dublin Airport Second and Third terminals, new Aer Lingus CEO contract, position of Chairman of Cork Airport - problems thereof, Aer Lingus pre-privitisation permissions, redundancies at Shannon Airport, briefing re AG review on breakup of Aer Rianta and position of Great Southern Hotels and DAA.

PSO data may not be announced then until early June. Legal papers delay likely.

[Tom the Tenor]

-Position of chairman of Cork Airport, problems thereof-

Chickens, home, roost comes to mind.

[DB6]

Any update on a likely date for announcement?

[parkfell]

Reckon w/c 23 May will reveal the outcome. Much later and the lead time to organise things become a bit tight.

:cool:

[thebrother]

Through it. RE-KIR, GWY.
LOG-LDY,CFN,SXL,NOC

RE sale to go through then.

[The_Bean_Counter]

I thought FR had the KIR one wrapped up as they were lowest bidder ? How did RE fix this one ?

[Honiley]

Congratulations Loganair if this is indeed true! 4 out of the 6 six is a "right result"!!!

[Cyrano]

When's the public announcement, thebrother? And what's this about an RE sale?

This would mean that in terms of routes, BA (via Loganair) is now the joint-largest Irish domestic/cross-border carrier! :rolleyes:
If I count right... BA: DUB to CFN, LDY, SXL, NOC. RE: DUB to ORK, KIR, GWY and BHD to ORK

[Buy one get one free]

Logibear LDY and NOC only.

Who got the other 4 routes?

Nothing yet on www.transport.ie/press/pressrel

[DB6]

Bogof, how reliable?

[ProfJackRabbit]

RE CFN,SXL, GWY
LOG LDY NOC
FR KIR
I don't think anyone is surprised.

[TwoDeadDogs]

hi all
Loganair are getting Sligo, Carrickfin and Derry. Arran are retaining the rest,soI'm told. Expect changes to the Dublin office.
TDD

[Hansol]

Heard Loganair will be using a Shorts 360 !! Good luck. Also heard rumour about possible RE sale.

[parkfell]

Loganair stopped operating the Shorts in 2002.

The last one, G-BPFN went to Aurigny. G-BNMU went to BAC express, G-BNMW went to the States.

Fine aircraft and very useful on the shorter runways.

:cool:

[Cyrano]

So to summarise the projected scores from the rumour mill here over the last 24 hours :) :

Thebrother: Loganair 4, RE 2
TwoDeadDogs: Loganair 3, RE 3
ProfJackRabbit: Loganair 2, RE 3, FR 1
BOGOF and Uncle Dickie: Loganair 2, not sure how the rest are split

We await white smoke from Kildare Street to know who wins the prognostication prize!

[ecj]

My money is on the "Prof".

[123 O'Leary]

EJC - dont bet too much, nobody has it correct so far - the smoke is on the horizon!

[Honiley]

Exciting stuff!!!

I thought the LDY contract included the NOC route??

And as Logibear already have LDY, I would put my money on ProfessorJackRabbit too!

[TwoDeadDogs]

Hi all
I would be beyond surprised if the Government gave FR a PSO given the abuse directed at one B.Ahern over the last few years. It is also highly cynical of Ryanair to crow about competition at every turn and then compete for a subsidy. I had heard that the Kerry Airport management want jets rather than turbos, which is code for anyone but Arann!
regards
TDD

[ontheedge]

How about LOG 4 RE 2
The after extra time LOG 2 RE 4

[thebrother]

RE offered KIR,GWY - now accepted.
LOG offered LDY & NOC package - accepted.
LOG also offered SXL & CFN package - LOG declined offer stating "not ability to operate".
RE now offered SXL & CFN with discussions today. SXL politicians lobbying hard for RE.
Decision announced likely Thursday PM.

RE lower tender than FR - very low.

[MarkD]

thebrother

any word on what equipment Loganair will use on NOC? Was anyone else in for SXL/CFN apart from Logan and RE?

[Sean Dillon]

MarkD,
Saab 340

[The_Bean_Counter]

So who allowed RE to change the submission after the deadline with the magic number ?

FR had leaked their number to the press at between 50% and 60% of the RE subsidy the previous year

It is hardly credible that RE cut their previous requirement in half for a closed tender process

TDD is right Ahern had this fixed to give it to anyone but FR

[MarkD]

Steady on there Mr Bean.

You may have wanted to insert "allegedly" in there somewhere.

Saabs - back to Aer Lingus Commuter days! 30 seats too... bit of a downgrade from an ATR. Or is it just more appropriate to the market?

[metalboymike]

Will Log not be getting The Dash 8 from ba,

[MarkD]

metalboy

Loganair are taking delivery of more S340s - and if they want to expand I'm sure Saab wouldn't mind helping LX place their Saab 2000s which are rumoured to be leaving!

The -8s are returning to lessor - IIRC one may have gone to Air Southwest.

[Hansol]

Rumour is Loganair tender states Shorts 360 aircraft, any way the actual tender submissions will be made publis shortly. FR may not have won anything but their involvement has certainly hurt RE.

[db7]

Believe PSO tender specified pressurised planes

[Cyrano]

DB7's quite right - the tender specified pressurised aircraft with a minimum 30-seat capacity.

Mr Bean Counter: I think your allegation is out of line. I understand the goal of this tender process was to reduce the costs significantly (not least by attracting more competition) and I suspect that RE's bid this time round was a lot lower than last time. Anyway, if FR suspected foul play, don't you imagine that MOL would have come out all guns blazing and threatening legal action?

No, maybe FR just got their sums wrong... ;) ;)

C.

[thebrother]

RE - KIR, GWY
LOG - LDY, NOC
RE after LOG refusal - SXL, CFN

RE - 4, LOG - 2

Cullen announces PSO Contracts for Regional Air Routes

Transport Minister, Martin Cullen, T.D. announced today (26th May 2005) that following an EU Public Tender process, contracts to provide scheduled air services on the six Public Service Obligation (PSO) regional air routes have been secured by Aer Arann and Loganair. As before, the new contracts are for a three-year period, commencing 22 July 2005.

Aer Arann has been awarded contracts to continue operating scheduled services on routes linking Dublin with the regional airports in Galway, Kerry, Sligo and Donegal. The Scottish regional carrier Loganair has been awarded the contract for the operation of routes linking Dublin with Knock and City of Derry Airports.

Under the new PSO contracts, Aer Arann will provide three daily return services on the Galway and Kerry routes and two daily return services on the Sligo and Donegal routes. Loganair will provide two daily return services on the Derry route and one return service each day on the Knock route. Scheduled departure times on all routes will continue to enable passengers, particularly business passengers, to make same-day return journeys. As always, it remains open to the appointed air carriers to provide additional non-PSO services on the routes in question.

The total maximum contracted subvention for the three-year contract term on all routes will be €45.8 million.

Minister Cullen said: “The PSO programme is vitally important in providing essential air access to the regions. It enables Government to contribute to more balanced regional development by guaranteeing scheduled air services for tourism and business.

“Both Loganair and Aer Arann have provided a high quality service under the PSO programme to date and I am confident this will continue under these new contracts. The proposed new timetables will provide convenient flight times for business travellers and tourists and continued growth in passenger numbers at the regional airports is anticipated. The continuation of Government support for regional air services will have a very positive impact on regional development through increased economic activity, tourism and employment”, Minister Cullen concluded.

[roblondon70]

Do you think LC will also take over RE's NOC - LPL sector? RE isn't able to continue the service without operating to LPL from another station as the a/c routes DUB - NOC - LPL - NOC, returning to DUB the following morning as per the PSO obligations.

Incidentally, any ideas how NOC - LPL has performed in its early days?

[Eh Hello?]

46m Euro for all six routes is a serious reduction on the 2002 round of PSOs when five routes (i.e. all except Derry) were awarded for 56m Euro to Arann and Euroceltic( http://www.transport.ie/viewitem.asp?id=2629&lang=ENG&loc=1138 ). Arann received on average 18.6m euro per year in subsidy (possibly more depending on the financing of the two routes inherited when Euroceltic went swimming), reducing now to probably at best 12m Euro, assuming Logan get around 3m per year for NOC and LDY.

Fair play to Arann for bidding so low and winning four (ok, SXL and CFN are after extra time) - it's good to see they are now strong enough to survive with 6.5m less of subsidy per year.

[thebrother]

Actually RE received far more than you quote. The last PSO was index linked 10% PA. Crazy stuff. Jury is out will RE be able to survive without radical restructuring. Dept. was adamant that they were not going to be seen to finance RE Uk expansion via PSO.

[840]

Excluding PSO, which RE routes are running profitably?

Presumably Cork-Dublin.

I'd guess Cork-Birmingham and maybe Galway-Luton, Waterford-Luton or Cork-Belfast.

[Eh Hello?]

How has RE's Cork - Brimingham performed since BMI Baby came onto it?

[LGS6753]

840,

Both RE's Luton routes have been upgraded. From 1 daily ATR42 at start to two daily ATR72s. I suspect both are profitable.

[metalboymike]

the management at Knock dont sound too disappointed on the out come.The way it came across on the radio is that noc see growth in the new service.

The million dollar question is willl RE stay on anyone know?

[WOWBOY]

Why did Loganair refuse SXL and CFN??????

[TwoDeadDogs]

Hi all
Perhaps Sligo preferred ATRs to Sf340s? More to the point, what will happen to RE now? Rumour has it that the company will retrench for now, by letting the Dutch pilots go when their contracts are up, letting the two oldest aircraft back to the lessors, shutting down the expensive HQ at EIDW and reopening in Galway. They'll probably reduce recruitment of all staff types to zero, as well. Don't regard them as a busted flush, by any means.
regards
TDD

[123 O'Leary]

TwoDeadDogs - i thought RE only lost the NOC pso?
By the tone of your post, one would thought the lost everything!:confused:

[Hey there]

From what i can deduse from their timetable, the Knock aircraft arrived at dublin at 0745 and did the 0815 to Sligo, getting back in time to go to the Isle of Man at 1035, getting back to Dublin again at 1215. Presumably it did another round trip to somewhere over lunchtime (Galway?) or got a wipe of a mechanics sleeve for a few hours and then the 1600 to Cork before going back to Knock at 1800 and operating the Liverpool service.

It would be kinda ironic if losing Knock caused Arran to pull off Dublin - IOM and hand the route to Euromanx, who just recently started competing with Arran on the Galway - London market.

Time for a bit of consolidation by Arran, methinks. they have a pretty good niche in some routes but are very exposed on Cork - you cannot keep operating eleven round trips per day without attracting attention from a LoCo competitor. Short odds on a major Waterford announcement soon?

Over the years, Arran have been down but never out - this setback will knock the wind out of their sails (and sales) for a few weeks but they will bounce back.

[MarkD]

A lot of reshuffling going on at Loganair, with BA ATPs departing and SF340s arriving. If they feel they prefer to run a quality operation from LDY/NOC rather than overstretching by adding SXL/CFN (both fairly marginal ports anyway) then good on them I say - better that than another Euroceltic!

[TwoDeadDogs]

Hi all
I'm all in favour of RE having as much of the PSOs as possible because they are good at what they do. The possibility of pilot and other job losses is very real, sadly, but the Dutch guys knew that there was no guarantee of getting a fulltime gig. They might have to dump the Dublin HQ because it's very,very expensive to rent from the DAA. failing that, they might end up shifting out of the Airport, just like Cityjet. The older aircraft were going back, either way and this change in circumstances has just spurred it. I have no doubt that RE will knuckle down and adjust and do what ever's required to keep going. They survived the debacle of the 145 loss so this should be overcome,also .
regards
TDD

[neidin]

Well - good to see Aer Arann have not changed. Have cancelled the evening flights from Dublin-Kerry-Dublin. I was waiting for my wife but hey it's cancelled. A lot of very upset media types waiting at Kerry Airport for other journos as the opposition Labour Party are having their conference in Tralee - 10 mins from Kerry Airport. Aer Arann are a crap airline.

[smiert spionom]

"quote"
Hi all
Perhaps Sligo preferred ATRs to Sf340s? More to the point, what will happen to RE now? Rumour has it that the company will retrench for now, by letting the Dutch pilots go when their contracts are up, letting the two oldest aircraft back to the lessors, shutting down the expensive HQ at EIDW and reopening in Galway. They'll probably reduce recruitment of all staff types to zero, as well. Don't regard them as a busted flush, by any means.
regards
TDD

Twodeaddogs,


No one in the company is letting go, on the contrary. About the Dutch going when their contracts are up...., well they have all open ended contracts, which means no ending date as such. RE is still loking for capts. It is true the old atr 42 will be gone soon, but they will be replaced by 72's. All 42's are to be replaced with 72's in short time. Don't be surprised when you at the end of this year see a fleet of 15 aircrafts in RE. Won't call that a set back.

smiert

:)

[MarkD]

Having flown on a 340 once in EI Commuter days and on an RE ATR, I can't figure how anyone would prefer the former as an aircraft. Maybe it was being asked to move to the other side of the aircraft to balance it (because of a later passenger who eventually showed up)!

Looking at the Loganair website (loganair.co.uk) they have a nice routemap which gradually fills in the destinations - you start thinking "not many really" and then they just keep adding and adding.

As I have answered my own question (BA does put its codes, 8964-8967, on DUB-LDY) NOC now has more BA connections for LGW and the possibility of linking NOC to GLA/EDI and/or DUB-IOM could be on the cards.

Have Arann ever talked to bmi/Star or AF/Skyteam about codesharing, since EI don't seem to want to know and Loganair may eventually build a larger route network - this is now airport no 4 in the Republic for Logan.

[neidin]

Looks like this PSO saga is not over yet. In today's Irish edition of S. Times -

May 29, 2005

Aer Arann slashes €2.25m off subsidy to undercut Ryanair
Mark Paul and Douglas Dalby

Aer Arann, the regional carrier headed up by Padraig O Ceidigh, slashed the level of state subvention it was prepared to receive by as much as 42% to undercut a challenge from Ryanair for the tender for the uneconomic Kerry-Dublin route.
Last year Aer Arann received about €5.25m from the government to operate the Public Service Obligation (PSO) Kerry route, but in the tender it submitted this year the airline agreed to reduce this to €3m. It is believed this figure was just below what Ryanair was prepared to accept.

Aer Arann made an after-tax profit of just more than €2.2m in 2003 in its last filed set of accounts, leaving industry sources to speculate on how it proposes to make money by accepting a cut in its subsidy of €2.25m on just one route.

Ryanair surprised many industry watchers by tendering for the Kerry contract, given the high-profile opposition to state help to the airline industry espoused by Michael O’Leary, its chief executive.

After losing out on the Kerry route, Ryanair is believed to be considering taking on Aer Arann by opening up a Dublin-Cork connection. Aer Arann currently operates 11 Cork-Dublin flights each weekday and five each Saturday and Sunday. As well as a threat to its Cork route from Ryanair, analysts have also warned that Aer Arann’s Galway routes could be affected by Ryanair’s move into Shannon.

The airline, which last year received an estimated €18.2m in subsidies, also beat off competition from BMI Regional, European Express and CityJet to take the Kerry route.

It managed to hold on to four of the five three-year PSO contracts it previously held, losing the Dublin-Knock route to Scottish airline Loganair, which also won the Derry contract. In addition to Kerry, Aer Arann will continue to operate the PSO services linking Dublin to Galway, Donegal and Sligo.

The airline currently operates more than 500 flights per week across 17 UK, six domestic and two French routes. It carried nearly 1m passengers in 2004. O Ceidigh has said that state subsidies account for about 30% of its revenues but has denied that the airline could not survive without them.

The six PSO contracts were announced last week by the transport minister Martin Cullen and are worth up to €45.8m to Aer Arann and Loganair.

[Hey there]

Has anyone every stopped to ask if the Galway and Kerry routes could actually be operated at a profit without subsidy?

IMHO, if they can operate 11 a day on Cork commercially with higher fares than the PSO, why can't they fly three a day on Galway and Kerry (both 100,000+ passenger per year routes I suspect?) with the same higher fares and no subsidy? Why is Dublin - Cork so different - if anything, Kerry is so inaccessable people should pay more to get there than Cork. By getting rid of the uneconomic low fares on the PSO routes and eliminating the subsidy, more traffic would move to the state railways and reduce the subsidies needed there so giving a double bonus to the tax payers.

[MarkD]

hey there

what the subsidy buys is timing - otherwise GWY/KIR etc would not get the morning/evening slots. Read the PSO docs to see the restrictions involved. Morning flights mean basing aircraft - more cost or positioning - more cost.

[TwoDeadDogs]

Hallo,Smiert et al,
One of my "spies" in the Company mentioned all of the above in conversation. The fear of the possible closure of the Dublin base is quite real,especially for those who have already moved house to accomodate the Company's needs. With regard to the Dutch pilots, as every connie knows, the "connie's crucifix" is never more than the whim of the Boss away. Today, connies are in,tomorrow they are out... The replacement of the smaller ATRs has long been a topic of conversation in RE.This event has probably brought their actual departure date closer.
neidin, every airline suffers sudden cancellations and RE are no better or worse than anyone else. It really doesn't take much to knock a schedule off kilter,with the flights at the tail-end taking the hardest hit.
regards
TDD