Boom times for pilots are here - Maybe?

[Menen]

Latest Aircraft & Aerospace (April 2005) has a cheery article by Paul Phelan titled "Pilot scarcity to be new growth limiter for airlines." It says that three and a half years after Ansett's shut down in 2001, "the surplus of pilots is spent."

Later on another paragraph states that "Australia's airline growth is no longer adequately supported by an adequate flow of recruits at any level." Certainly that news is good news for the current 3000 pilots who have applied to Virgin Blue, alone. And how many is that airline taking in this year? 15 or 20, maybe?

I remember the same old message several times over the past 40 years and even then there were a thousand plus well qualified pilots unable to get into the airlines.

Historically there have always been far too many pilots for the number of jobs available - starting from the lowest paid Cessna 210 charter pilot or the grade 3 instructor hanging around the coffee urn waiting to catch the first TIF who fronts up to the counter clutching a 50 buck voucher.

While I am sure that all the chief pilots who were interviewed by the journalist Paul Phelan were fair dinkum in their fear that they are going to run out of pilots and cut services because of lack of pilots to fly their aircraft, it is a fair bet that their fears will prove groundless - if the experience of past history is looked at.

Sure there may be a shortage of 5000 and 10,000 hour pilots to fly a Dash-8 or a SAAB - but hey! what's the problem with a 500 hour co-pilot job on these types? Europe and Asia have 250 hour copilots on 737's and even 500 hour pilots as F/O on 747's and A340's.

There are pilots in trees in Australia and that will never change, despite what is published in aviation magazines.

[Ultralights]

the difference this time around is airlines are increasingly forcing their pilots to pay for their careers!!

refer to the Qantaslink thread here
http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=168635

it will quickly become apparent that being an airline pilot is not a financially rewarding career! and number s will drop dramatically! and may well hinder airline growth.

[robair]

I agree with you ultralights. I recieved the email from sunstate regarding having to have a dash 8 endorsement before getting the job there.
It seems that you have to buy a job these days. When I first saw that impulse was doing it I was weary of this as I could see it becoming an industry norm. This idea is going to result in only poeple with enough money to buy the endorsement are going to get the jobs. Just because some one can buy the job at said airline will they be the best person for the job? How many poeple have I seen going through flying schools with rich parents paying the lot and being of average skill?
Imagine qantas for example expect you to have a 747 endorsement before applying?
I hate to sound like a doomsdayer but thats my fear.
Any way I can't wait for these baby boomers to start retiring or loosing there medicals.
go on retire you old *****s

[Mud Skipper]

With the industry spinning down the can at an increasing rate of knots as we undercut each other for jobs, todays date seems apt for the suggestion there is a pilot scarcity.

:\

[flap35]

Whats wrong with average?

[king oath]

The rules of supply and demand still apply.

As long as certain airlines in Oz are paying peanuts there ain't no shortage. The first sign of a shortage would be pay rates increasing to a reasonable level.

[Captain.Q]

Average ain't good enough especially when there are a lot of ABOVE average around

[Howard Hughes]

Average ain't good enough especially when there are a lot of ABOVE average around

Tutt Tutt (shakes head)

Cheers, HH.

:ok:

[The_Cutest_of_Borg]

With Emirates now taking DE Captains at higher rates than those who came up from FO, Dragonair ambitiously expanding and new players like Etihad arriving, the pool of experienced pilots, particularly C&T people, is rapidly drying up.

But I doubt there will be a shortage of young pilots in Australia in the foreseeable future.

We may see a situation such as we had in the late 80's, where big bucks could be made via contract.

Interestingly, with the situation of the current EBA in QF, where despite record profits and management at the trough, a true pay rise for the troops is simply not on the cards, I talk with many pilots who see what is on offer overseas and are now prepared to give leaving QF serious thought. I am one of them.

I can earn twice what I take home now in Dragonair, or retire in half the time I have left in Qantas. It's a very appealing thought. Time will tell what happens.

[Eimar Moron]

The problem is arising only because of age retirements.
Many countries are now reviewing - or already have revised - the retirement age upwards.

Stick that one in your pipe and smoke on it for a while robair:=

[Shazzamed]

What you will find is that many locals from countries outside Australia will gain jet jobs, in their own country, with little or no experience, get their jet time and perhaps move on...Maybe!!

Try looking at contract work via the internet and you will find that mostly all require jet experience.

So what we have is guys in Europe, U.S, Asia, South Pacific, that are all qualified on type, taking the pick of the crop, and then guys in Oz still struggling in GA.

Where is the shortage of pilots. Certainly not in OZ. How many unemployed commercial pilots are out there??

Alot of morons in management in Australia, along with their pig-headed ego's, make it more and more difficult for anyone to get a job in Oz- GA and in the Airlines.

This is what kills me.

Take a look at Jetstar for example, they require more experience and require you to do more in their selection process than in Qantas to get less pay. Pacific blue, I remeber that their requirements were higher than Virgin Blue to get less pay. QL, well they want you to pay more and more money..etc etc!!

When experience levels drop for entry, like US and Europe in fact everywhere else in the world, pay increases, and we all have civil liberties......ahhh then we have a shortage of pilots.

Write that in your articles before you entice more and more into this wicked and evil field that aviation has become.

I wonder what the flying schools will tell their prospective students. You will need $100,000 to get a flying job in OZ that pays ****e, but if your lucky and you know heaps of people in the industry, in 4-5 years you could be earning $80,000. Or, will they pin up these articles on their notice boards so everyone feels a sense of well being while getting financially pumped!!

Maybe just Maybe this all an April Fools day joke and we can all have a bit of a giggle...teehee!

Shazzamed:=

[Wirraway]

Fri "The Australian"

Warning of skills shortage crisis
Steve Creedy, Aviation writer
April 01, 2005

AUSTRALIA's aviation industry faced a potentially crippling skills crisis as well as serious worries about the availability of capital and declining infrastructure over the next decade, a new aviation industry group has warned.

Topping the list of concerns was the looming skills shortage, particularly among pilots and maintenance engineers.

The summit heard that aviation industry growth across Southeast Asia was creating a surge in demand that coincided with an ageing industry population, where the average age of licensed aircraft engineers was in the mid-fifties and the average professional pilot was aged in the late-forties.

The Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) has conservatively estimated that an additional 94,000 staff would be needed in the Asia-Pacific region over the next decade and that this greatly exceeded projected supply. At the same time, cost restraints mean apprentice intakes in civil and military aviation were at all-time lows.

Click here for FULL story (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,12715422%255E23349,00.html)

==========================================

[Pinky the pilot]

Menen: There certainly are pilots in trees here in Australia!:mad:
One is in an Orange tree and he's sick of picking the flamin' things!:yuk:

However getting out of them and back into an aeroplane is proving a little harder than expected!:{

You only live twice. Once when
you're born. Once when
you've looked death in the face.

[Brindabella]

I beleive it doesnt matter what continent you are from. There never has been a pilot shortage and there never will be. Just the requirements change.

A good family friend of mine went to United Airlines in 1956. He didnt even have his intstrument rating. United snapped him up, stuck him in a simulator and and then a bugsmasher, then stuffed him into the right seat of a Convair with the ink still wet on his ticket. No shortage, EVER, ANYWHERE!

B

[Menen]

Eimer M. It is nothing to do with increased age requirements at all. As far as Australia is concerned there never was an age limit for "retirement" apart from before the 1989 pilot's strike where the AFAP forced an age 60 retirement which neatly removed perfectly competent pilots who simply loved to fly, out of the system. In Europe the retirement age varies country to country from 60 to 63.

In Asia at the moment there are hundreds of 200 hour pilots graduating from flying schools each year who will move directly into the second in command seat of Boeings and Airbus. Best of luck to them, too. Look the other way as far as flight safety is concerned, of course. But Australia has always had a vast oversupply of pilots and that will never change.

[Three Bars]

The call comes after an inaugural AUSAC summit in Melbourne last month brought together representatives of major industry groups, airlines and the defence force to discuss problems facing aviation in the next decade. Topping the list of concerns was the looming skills shortage, particularly among pilots and maintenance engineers.


Wonder which airlines were involved in the discussions? The attitude expressed in the article re the looming skills shortage doesn't seem to gel with Qantas' attitude of continually eroding T&Cs and doing everything it can to disillusion and p*ss of its staff - many of whom probably stay mainly so that they can live in Australia.

Things will sadly only change IMO when GA is dead and the flying schools can't attract prospective students.

I await NEXT GENERATION's reply with interest.

[Erin Brockovich]

Couldn't agree more. I can see signs that the pool of experienced pilots is already starting to dry up. The airlines and regionals should be asking them selves who is going to fly their aircraft in 5 - 10 years time?
You might be able to get a cadet to become a SO at 200hrs but not a FO or Capt. Where are the experienced (ie >1500T 500MC) pilots going to come from when no one takes up flying because they can't afford to.

Who in their right mind would get a licence (god knows what a CPL costs now) knowing in advance that after years in GA plus extra costs for C-ME IFR etc gets them a
($38k and paying up to 18K for Dash 8 endo AND have to live in expensive Sydney)
This is the worst time in the industry for operators to go asking for endos and paying peanuts. Lets just turn everybody away from flying.

This quoted from the QL emailThe review highlighted the fact that this process is in line with industry practice and will allow QantasLink to better meet its overall pilot recruitment requirements
to better meet its overall pilot recruitment requirements :confused:
QL you have just lost my application before I have even considered applying. And I have passed the controversial psych test that seems to cull many suitable candidates.(not indended as a horn blow).

It is getting harder and harder to stay motivated in this industry. 'Pilot' will find its way next to the Tasmanian Tiger on the endangered species list in years to come if the current operators keep on the current path. The key to a successful business is happy (even able to support themself) staff. They are your company's investment, so invest in them and get the returns, real profits - not false ones by cutting costs.

There will be a 'correction' in the industry like the stock market sooner or later and the remaining pilots will benefit. IMO I don't believe a 'requirement change' will offset a shortage. Simply because the airlines won't be able to afford the increased insurance premiums when all they have left to command their aircraft are 200hr pilots.

[oicur12]

Any pilot shortage will be short lived - as a post elsewhere on pprune has indicated - "Goldman Sachs predict USD$105/barrel"

Most if not all other investment firms agree.

Dont stress guys, pilot shortage will be the least of your worries.

[Eimar Moron]

Quote from menen: :As far as Australia is concerned there never was an age limit for "retirement" apart from before the 1989 pilot's strike where the AFAP forced an age 60 retirement which neatly removed perfectly competent pilots who simply loved to fly, out of the system."
That's bollocks!
It was Government enforced legislation that "neatly removed perfectly competent pilots who simply loved to fly, out of the system."...poor darlings. :{

Shazzamed has said it most accurately, in my opinion.
Australia, and most Western countries are awash with G.A. pilots who have paid for their OWN training.
Flying doesn't have the same appeal, or is simply unaffordable to the common man in Asian and Arabic countries. (It is here too, but we hock ourselves to the hilt anyway, in the hope that we can pay the loan off and get a return on our money before we die!).
People with the ability to endure and pass pilot training usually prefer to opt for other professions - doctors, lawyers, accountants.
Resultantly, non-western country airlines are FORCED to pay for their pilots' training, endorsements, etc, to ensure an adequate supply. Hence the reason we see 20-something year olds with a couple of hundred hours in the rhs of jets, over in those countries.

Yes, the pilot shortage is looming, which is why companies are screwing pilots NOW, because in the very near future there simply won't be enough to go around.
Boeing forecast this (for this upcoming period) some 5 or 6 years ago.
"short lived" is a relative term, oicur12 - it will be "short lived" enough to see SOME airlines parking aircraft and cancelling services due to lack of pilots, unless they up the ante to draw them away from other employers.

[bushy]

There may be a pilot shortage when the flying schools tell the trainees what the employment situation actually is, and the bludging airlines select candidates for employment and give them a provisional contract BEFORE they spend huge ammouns of money at the local flying school. .

[WaldoPepper]

I think the problem is more or less conditions/wages.

There are a lot of jobs out there now that pay a hell of a lot more than flying for doing much less.

I spent about 12 yrs in GA being cracking a well paid job. That's 12 years of earning next to nothing and therefore being able to save nothing. Friends of mine who left school, went straight to UNI for maybe 4 years came out and stepped into jobs earning 40K plus.

I don't complain, because the choice has been mine but the fact of the matter is, I am about 6-7 years behind them financially. They are all thinking of buying 2nd properties, I still don't have a deposit for the first one !

15 years ago, a pilot was a highly paid job with good lifestyle. That has slowly disapeared, not only due aviations own pressures, but other industries have improved their conditions.

So kids now coming out of high school will look at flying and wonder why you would flog yourself for maybe 10 years in a job that will send you to the back of beyond and earn you nothing, or should i go to Uni for a few years and have better prospects.

There will always be pilots coming through the ranks, just not as many as previous years.

[tinpis]

Waldo theres always bloody something 30-40 years ago you couldnt get a home loan out of the miserable Banks unless you had saved every last penny in an account with them over umpteen years.
Most had of course been spending every penny on training.
Now they lend you money if your destitute .:{

[Centaurus]

Eimer. What's this "government enforced legislation" crap that you are whinging about? The government of the day has never had a law enacting an age 60 retirement age in Australia for pilots.

[Three Bars]

Waldo,

Not only are you going to be immediately ten years or so behind your peers, but you will get further behind as time passes. The money that you have foregone at the start of your career will compound as wife/children/mortgage arrives, and you will be going backwards even faster. Take it from one who knows.

Why would anyone leave school to pay $100,000 (?) for CPL/ATPL subjects to get a lowly paid job to then spend $25,000 to pay for an endorsement to join an airline that pays $50,000 a year to start as an F/O?

You'd want to do it for love, because you would probably never finacially recover. The airlines in Oz are getting away with it at the moment because they can. I hope I am in the industry long enough to see the tide turn.

[RYAN TCAD]

I keep telling these youngens that want to become pilots when they leave school to seriously reconsider.

Facts are, that from when you start your training to finally reaching a level of being employable, and everything else in between-

- (ie; the trials and tribulations of a struggling pilot and everything that one must endure!) -

- not only are you out of pocket around a 100K, but you have only a slightly LESS THAN 5% chance of actually making it in to the airlines as you compete with around 14,000 active COM and ATPL pilots whom are out of work - where you could then hope to start earning a VERY AVERAGE wage compared to other industry standards.

The facts are a FCUKING WAKE-UP CALL!

[Chris Higgins]

Again, the dastardly American model repeats itself.

"Pilot Shortage Looming", and other such articles in Flying Magazine in the mid-90's, were little more than a propaganda machine to get flying schools to advertise.

In the middle of this came an employment agency run by a United pilot in his off time. He didn't care, the more unemployed pilots out there, the more needed his agency!

The resulting revenues from training advertising in his monthly journal must have made him millions over and above his United paycheck.

There is no true pilot shortage. There never was...there never will be!

[Foreign Worker]

You're wrong there, Chris, there HAS been a pilot shortage, but obviously you're too young to have experienced it. It was back in the late 1980's.

You're correct in stating that there will never be a "pilot" shortage per se, however, as was the case back in the late '80's there is an upcoming shortage of EXPERIENCED pilots looming, and this will see rapid promotion all the way down the line for those who WANT the work.

You, Chris, are a case in point yourself. Although we are always hearing of the thousands of furloughed American airline pilots looking for work - making it seem impossible for ANYONE else to gain employment there - you managed to score a good job there, as a captain, with only 1300 hours.
The point being, many guys are simply UNWILLING to move from their home towns/country, to gain employment. A very narrow-minded, and short-term thinking mindset, imo, as experience gained elsewhere NOW may well put one in pole position for a great job back home further down the line.

Yes, there is a pilot shortage looming - one that is going to see pilots moving upwards in their career :p at a pace relatively faster than they have experienced over the past decade or so.

[poteroo]

History Repeats Itself

Did my CPL in 1965, went to PNG the very next day, and was being checked on a c185 in Pt Moresby only 2 days later.

But, there were already reports, even then, about 500-1000 CPL's out-of-work in Australia.

What's changed? You still need to relocate to where the jobs are.


Shortages seem to be cyclical, and often are perpetuated by the training industry. But, this isn't restricted to aviation. In my field of agricultural consulting and research, we currently have a drive to instal Quality Assurance, (QA), into every farm and every business in rural Aust.

But, there is no sound reason for this - it's simply a
make-work exercise for retired public servants to set up in business. None of our competitors in grain production has QA at farm level, and so can afford to undercut us on world markets. Meanwhile, we impose additional red tape costs on our export industry when it's simply not required.

There's an analogy with aviation - how high must the bar be lifted for the entry level job?

It seems to me that, as a country, are becoming overqualified for the jobs on offer. That's why there's a shortage of tradespeople, but thousands of business graduates - who have little appeal to employers if they believe they're above an ordinary job!

On the subject of qualifications - we need to understand that after your basic qualification, be it a CPL or a basic degree in whatever, industry can, and does, ask for higher quals because there will always be people prepared to spend time and money to get these. In other words - some people buy their job - if you like to equate it to that.

In science, you get nowhere without a Phd, and no employer is going to put a graduate through that. If they did - it would only be on the basis of an employment bond with a long term.


I've been wondering what will happen to the positions available for the aspiring professional pilot, when all the current 'baby- boomer captains retire, but seek a few hours instructing at the local flying school to maintain an interest in aviation? Will this clog up the system? Might it even be a good trend in bringing more experience into instructing - as CASA appears to feel is needed?

A subject for a different thread?

happy days,

[Chris Higgins]

Foreign Worker

I think you might have not read my post quite right..or perhaps it was ambiguous.

I had 1,300 hours in Hawkers prior to going to Netjets. I have 9,800 tt with an additional 1,300 hours teaching the Boeing 757/767 in sims, and seven type ratings in total.

I started in 1983 at 15 and was at Tillair and Air Mt Isa in 1987. You could have shaken a tree at any airfield in Oz back then and I swear, three commercial pilots would fall out of it.

I came to the USA just to get married and go home, but I ran into an FAA examiner and we went out drinking together. The next day he called to say he had found me a job flying air-ambulance.

That was 14 years ago. I guess when I told my boss in Port Macquarie I'd see him in 14 days, I didn't know what I was getting myself into.

[Foreign Worker]

My apologies, Chris, you are correct - I didn't realise the extent of your experience.

But your post serves to highlight several aspects of aviation that Australian pilots might do well to take notice of, if they hope to keep going up that ladder of progression.
1) You are usually going to have to put in some time building hours in a job or location you might not particularly enjoy. ("Some time" usually runs into several years!)
2) There will always SEEM to be a lot more pilots competing with you, than there are. The truth is, the majority of them aren't willing to leave their established area of residence to take jobs.
3)Being in "the right place, at the right time" has probably scored more pilots jobs than sitting at home sending out reems of resumes.
4)Not every job will involve actual flying. You might have to be prepared to take TEMPORARY aviation-oriented work that will be BENEFICIAL for YOUR career (such as Chris' sim instructing).Sweeping hangars, washing/loading aircraft does NOT benefit your career as a PILOT!
5)Meeting other pilots, lames, examiners, etc, keeps you in the loop as to what's around, and also gets YOUR name known as being available for work.
6) You MUST be WILLING to move - very large distances sometimes - if your aim is to pursue a flying career.

And finally, it never hurts to chase a little bit of tail - you never know WHERE it could land you!

Thanks Chris. :ok:

[Chris Higgins]

No, no worries at all!

I couldn't agree with you more about your recipe for success. I was working as a tradesman's assistant with Port Aero Servicing and met an operator who needed some contract flying from NZ back to Aus' in 1988. It was a great spring board for other opportunities.

My wife thinks I must be Irish, not Australian though. Opportunity seems to find me quite often some guys really have a hard go of it. You do need to be lucky too!

[Maxpowerhome]

Yeh i agree.

There will always be too many pilots.
These magazine articles about an up coming shortage is absolute c@#p!

Here are some examples of replys to ads.

A co-pilot in QLD for a King air, wanted 1000hrs total. 2000 replies.
BN2 job in the straits. 350 replies.
RFDS- hundreds on file waiting.
ALL the airlines, REX, Sunstate etc, 1000's on file. Yes, absolutely.

Maybe in asia where they looking for 500 hrs in the right seat of an A320, they may find it alittle hard to locate crew, but otherwise pilots are falling out of trees here in Australia.

We get 20 resumes a week and 18 go in the bin!!!!!!!!!

[HI'er]

Maybe in asia where they looking for 500 hrs in the right seat of an A320Dream on.
Asia probably has the highest qualification requirements of just about anywhere in the world.
European requirements are lower.

But BECAUSE of the "Asian Myth" (of Asian countries just "begging" for any pilots), the companies there are DELUGED with applications from thousands of pilots worldwide.

Forget Asia - the money might be okay, but the command prospects are less than ZERO for pilots who qualify as First Officers (usually 3,000 - 5,000 TT min, and time on type 1,000 min).
Not unrealistically, they want to promote their own, whom they are pretty sure will stay "at home", whereas foreigners would tend to want gain enough experience to qualify them for a job back in THEIR own country.

[Chimbu chuckles]

There will ABSOLUTELY NEVER be and has NEVER BEEN a shortage of pilots in Australia with 200-500 hrs.

There are many differences in this industry now compared with 25 yrs ago when I started.

Training is more expensive in real terms...a LOT more expensive.

Less entry level jobs in Australia.

We have an internet aviation forum where young pilots with little experience can whinge.

Young pilots with little experience have much higher expectations than we had....and are far more impatient while having less respect for the value of experience gained in the journey.

The Militaries around the world are a fraction of the size they were up until the 70s and are putting commensuratly a fraction of the pilots into the civil system.

What is unchanged though is the vast majority will NOT end up in a jet unless they are prepared leave home and go overseas.

The experience you can gather in Australian aviation will only get you to the very bottom rung overseas...but if you can get several thousand hours with some quality turbine time, preferably but not essentially command time, you can get an FO job in Asia and expect in the normal course of events (if YOU meet the standards, not everyone does!) to have a jet command 4 to 15 yrs later...10+ being somewhere like CX and 4-6 common in many other places.

Only a VERY lucky few will progress to jets without going overseas...and it is mostly luck.

So the AVERAGE pilot learning to fly in Oz or NZ if he/she works really hard, takes chances (read makes own luck) and are a little lucky and good enough might..I say MIGHT end up in a jet somewhere after 7-10 years from first solo....and have a command 4-15 yrs after that.

So from solo to jet command in 15-25 years....I got my first LHS jet after 20...but the 89 dispute undoubtedly delayed my progression from GA to the airlines by dumping 1600 odd guys onto the market. Lucky for me I LOVED my time in GA as I was paid well flying multi turbines single pilot for the last 4000 hrs of the 7000 I spent in GA....the 2500 before that multi piston...still paid well and accom provided the whole time.

Airline cadets don't traverse the journey from first solo to jet command much quicker...even in Asia..12-15 yrs would probably be an average at airlines that don't bend every standard to get them there quicker....many fail the first go and wait another year at airlines with high standards...as do expats.

Guys with a substantial GA background can usually pole an aeroplane quite well but CADETS beat them hands down at the boring airline minutae...an average GA pilot with say 3000 TT, 1000 turbine will typically take 3-4 years copilot time before being ready for a command course....doesn't mean it will happen in that time frame but he'll be ready...then you wait your turn....perhaps DEC coming in over the top or seeing cadets with less TT doing command courses before you...tough titty...it's their national carrier not yours...you are the hired help. If they didn't NEED you you would not be there...if there was anyway to avoid hiring you you wouldn't be there...as an expat you're a unfortunate necesity...that doesn't mean they're not nice to you or don't like or respect you...but it remains a fact.

Luckily the Asian carrier I work for includes the expat SFOs when they say "We would rather promote our own guys than hire DE Capts unless abslutely unavoidable"....and that's kinda nice...and I have NEVER detected the SLIGHTEST anti expat sentiment from the local pilots...that's refreshing after another place I worked years ago....in fact the locals whinge about EXACTLY the same BS we do over beers on an overnight making life extremely pleasant and low stress. When they see you have been given a command course they are often the first to stick their hand out with a big smile and say "Congrats".

The management pilots here are pretty good guys and only require one thing...DO WTF THEY PAY YOU FOR...which does not vary anywhere....get on their bad side and you may well regret your lack of foresite...that doesn't vary anywhere either.

Hint: If you read the RBA thread on the Asia forum remember what I wrote in that last paragraph:ok:

So in the overall scheme of things what has changed in the last 25 years?

Not a lot really...the journey has many variations but the end result is remarkably constant.

[Ronnie Honker]

What position in the cockpit do you hold, Chimbu Chuck?

Are you lhs, rhs, or bsd?

[757manipulator]

Until Oz aviation reduces its endemic protectionism of jobs on the basis or archaic and over-the-top experience requirements, there will continue to be a shortage of decent experienced aircrew.
Anecdotally, in the airline I fly for I would say 1 in 6 Capts are Ozzie's (about 30 Ozzie's in total)..and most of them are not interested in going back to an underpaid, and narrow minded environment.

Shortage yep...but only because no one wants to work there.

:hmm:

[EngineOut]

757, there is definately no shortage here!!!

[Chimbu chuckles]

ronnie honker...I am back in the rhs after changing jobs....last job was also in Asia so in all been working in Asia since 2000. I had left airlines for corporate and am happily back in airlines...corporate is a helluva lot of fun and more challenging than airline flying but has zero job security :(

Been here 23 mths and getting horrifyingly close on the numbers...have ticked all the boxes...1000+ on type, appropriate check scores etc so just waiting my turn again. One rumour says Feb but have been hearing that rumour 'you're on the next one chuck' for about 6 mths...when it's in writing I'll believe it.:ok:

Another chap, who started the same day, is on the current course and we are short of captains so you would assume it isn't that far off ;)

Guys here, with appropriate experience, sim scores etc have been going on command courses between one and two years for as long as I have been here and a bit longer. The 12 mth guys had significant widebody experience before coming here whereas I only had narrow body (old technology to boot) and corporate jet (more advanced technology than the 767...smaller fuel tanks though, which is not a bad thing :ok:)

Nothing in the company dynamic has changed...in fact resignations have been moving along at a fair clip with people doing 'the grass is greener' routine...no different to most airlines in Asia/the ME in the last few years....I have been around the traps enough to know the grass is greener only when liberally coated with 'fertiliser'!

There has been so much hiring going on here that between new SFO training and command courses in the last 36 mths the trainers have been absolutely FLAT out...in fact my course was delayed some weeks between end of sim and beginning of line training while new trainers were trained...the following courses were delayed mths and then a temporary recruitment embargo was put in place because of severe training indegestion.

New hire expat SFOs were arriving at the rate of 4 every 4 weeks or so last year and the system just couldn't spit them out the other end quick enough...and that says more about the quality of training than anything else...nothing rushed including the training of trainers...I was the first of my class of 4 to check to line and it was 4 mths almost to the day....two others were a week or so later and the last was 2 mths after that....for a variety of reasons.

I think it would be accurate to say that ALL the new SFOs in the last 3++ yrs have been Australian or Kiwis....certainly 99% have been for many years.

Guys who joined say 6 yrs ago got commands in 3-4 yrs...things were slower...things have been picking up the last 3 yrs and show no signs of slowing down anytime soon...in fact we recently had a payrise, the first in years apparently, which indicates the management concern about pilot numbers here is more than just verbage over beers.

We have had a few DECs arrive but that has been good because I was very happy not to have the added pressure of a possible command course too quick.

New aeroplane type, SOPs and route structure takes some getting used to...time in the RHS in such circumstances is never wasted....I would NOT have liked to change seats without at least one European winter watching from the cheap seats:ok:

My previous experience of freezing fog, snow and Cat111b ops was effectively ZERO....that has changed:ok:

So there is meat on the pilot shortage rumours...just not in Australia....nor will there ever be.

There will always be enough guys wanting to come back home after decades away to fill any DEC slots that may come up with new companies like VB (when it started) or if QF goes greenfield with it's new international LCC.

That's a very good thing because they will be a goldmine of information and experience for the new hire FOs that will be recruited alongside them....smart FOs will rejoice in that and use it to their advantage...a few wan-kers will denounce them as 'stealing our jobs'....utter rubbish!

Edit: Hi'er the locals are leaving here for the big bad world...taking their considerable experience and high standards, at a rate that lately has exceeded expats. There are airlines in Asia who do upgrade expat SFOs...CX, KA, RBA are just three I can think of and rumours suggest the pilot recruitment numbers in Japan and China in the next decade + indicate to me that the number who do will increase...not to mention EK, GA, Etihad in the ME and god knows where they are going to get the numbers from in India in the coming years.

[haughtney1]

Chimbu..check your PM's mate

Cheers:D

[Australia2]

Cute Borg,

I did exactly what you describe, and after 2 years have no regrets. For those prepared to give it a go there are wonderful opportunities, both life and career to be had.

There will be many who TALK of leaving the likes of QF, but not so many prepared to vote with their feet. Are you; REALLY ?

That the majority will not, I am sure management are well aware of !!

I'm with the 757'er, once out of the local scene perpestives change and I'm in no rush to get back. I guess there will always be too many drivers in Oz for too few jobs - and therefore things will never improve ( at least not in the short term anyway !!)

Three bars, we will not live long enough to see the change we hope for. The Canadians I work with describe a similar situation as do the South African's.

No axe to grind here, QF was and always will be a great opportunity in aviation, as is VB for some and JQ for others - there is simply, other options - and they will suit some and not suit others. Consider them all for your situation. After all, they are all better than an over-weight Chieftain in the middle of the night, thats for sure.

Don't anyone, believe Oz is all that's on offer - it's a big world out there.

Cheers Oz2

P.S - Chimbu - good luck with it all, dont loose that positive attitude - wonderful stuff, almost refreshing. Are you sure you are an Australian pilot ?!

[haughtney1]

Thanks Chimbu..reply duly sent:ok:

[skol]

Make the most of it while it's here boys. I started to fly in March 1964 and it's always been boom or bust, sooner or later the music's going to stop.
As for $105/barrel for oil, don't believe it. Oil is a commodity, just like wool, meat, copper, sex, even pilots and booms always end in busts. Big oil companies are picking lower prices over the next year or two, Chevron says $35/barrel.

[relax737]

skol, I saw the head of the world bank on CNN a couple of days back and he forecast 56 a barrel in 2006, falling to below 54 a barrel in 2007

It's only a forecast though based on the best possible information they can get their hands on. I imagine it would be bettr information than you and I ave access to.

I also saw a forecast by an analyst a few months ago that predicted 80 a barrel before Christmas, and that one isn't looking good

Regarding apost on the previous page, it is indeed a big world out there, but there are just as many pricks, if not more, than there are back home, just waiting to screw you.

If you have a job in Australia in my opinion you would be f****** nuts to look overseas, unless you are flying as P2 on a 172 and have a job offer of P1 on a 747 somewhere else.

[haughtney1]

Having worked in Oz, Id have to say I wouldnt relish going back (just a personal thing I guess) although the quality of life is far superior:D

At the end of the day its horses for courses, as I see it however, we all have bills to pay, sunshine..nice beaches..and clean fresh air doesnt pay those for you (bugger!!)

If there is a shortage I want to know about it...1 x 757/767 SFO going to the highest bidder!!:}

P.S. I'll consider that light twin 737 as long as its an NG..but keep them plastic airbuses away from me

P.P.S. B777 offers gladly accepted Im not proud:ok:

[HI'er]

You'll have to chase it yourself, haughtney, no-one's going to come offering you a job.
There are plenty of guys with good quals, BUT the supply is rapidly dwindling.

I have a mate with a major Asian carrier, who has loads of heavy widebody time, + a thousand hours or so as Captain on a regional jet.
He's been trying for about 18 months to move to greener pastures with no results - suddenly he now has 3 excellent job offers.

If YOU want a part of the action it's still the same old story - you'll have to put in the footwork to snavel one.
The jobs are there waiting, but they won't chase YOU!

(Later on you'll be saying, "How come THAT guy had so much LESS experience than I did when he got that job!!"......because he APPLIED for it, and followed up.)

[Scooter Rassmussin]

Youll never get paid well in Aus.
Its such a great place to live , and after flying for a ME carrier(poor decision on my part) and talking to many foreign pilots who have visas for Australia , most would come t0 Australia in the blink of an eye for any flying job.
If your thinking of doing an 89 you can all be replaced overnight with fully qualified endorsed pilots , so you cant have the lifestyle and the cash as well it seems.:oh:

[skol]

Quite right Scooter, always plenty ready to stab others in the back for some seniority (maybe) and a few extra dollars. And worse conditions as well.