Carlisle-Luton to start by summer 2005

[GrahamK]

According to a report in this local paper (http://www.cumberland-news.co.uk/news/viewarticle.aspx?id=163665) , a Bath based travel consortium has plans to fly from Carlisle -Luton with a Carlisle based Bae 146-100.

Your thoughts?

[Big Tudor]

Initial thoughts are - Is it April 1st already? :eek:
Have they really done their homework on this? What size of market is there in the Carlisle area for a daily LTN service, can't be that much one would have thought. Road links to MAN from Preston and Lancaster are pretty good, plus you wouldn't really wanna go North to then come South again. Can't see many people coming across from the Newcastle area to take a flight from Carlisle. Likewise I would've thought that GLA & PIK were just as convenient for those North of the border.
Even with the supposed link into EZY routes, I can't see it being a roaring success, especially with a BAe146. Surely a smaller capacity turbo-prop would have been a better aircraft to start such a route with, even then I can't see it being viable.

[Powerjet1]

Have to agree with you BT, this is really is a non-starter with a 146, ATR42 or smaller, an outside chance of success but still very doubtfull.

As for linking in with easy's route structure from LTN, an evening arrival into LTN would result in about 80% of easy's flights that day having already departed. However, note, it is really aimed at LTN originating pax doing business in the north. Little chance of success in present format.

[Big Tudor]

I can see there is a market to be opened up there, but I wouldn't have thought this was the best way to go about it. As Powerjet has said the links into the EZY network are tenuous to say the least, which leaves either the Carlisle people going to London (getting in late in the evening) or the City folk going out to the provinces. Is there really that much business going on in Carlisle to warrant a daily service. I know Eddie Stobart is doing well but I didn't realise that his bankers were going to see him! ;)
I would have thought the better way to open up somewhere like Carlisle would be on a double drop basis, i.e. Carlisle-LTN-AMS rather than doing it point to point.
I'm a bit sceptical about the council opening up another junction off the M6. I think they'd want to see more than a couple of flights a day before they would even consider that one.

Just my inane ramblings on the subject.

[GrahamK]

Better keep the rabbits of the runway as well :8

I would have thought a morning service to London would have done better than an evening service?

[dada]

if you think blackppol airport is bad, go to this place - it's like something out of the war. last lot to try it were euroair with a 748 then somelot with a viscount before that. years ago mind. a complete waste of time and money.

[Big Tudor]

Yer showing yer age now dada ! ;)

[dada]

like that character in the fast show in the pub.................
you in the old airline game are ya? hardest job in the world. used to do it myself - yeh - 30 years man and boy !

[jabird]

Or the guy in the League of Gentlemen. "Hey, what a great untapped market - no-one else as flown there since '76."

6 months later:

"Why did no one fill my planes. It's a **** business"

Maybe we're being a bit too cynical - there must be a fair sized market wanting to visit the Lake District, but compared to taking the train to Oxenholme or driving up the M6, would an air service really offer much advantage?

[dada]

or lou and from little britain...........
are you sure you want to go on the plane
yeh. i want that one
(one the plane)
dont like it - wonna go on the train

[WHBM]

Agreed the 146 seems overkill - believe Scot Airways looked at doing Carlisle to London City a while ago with one of their Do 328s, a 30 seat turboprop, and decided against it.

There is considerable industry at Workington/Whitehaven whose nearest airports are Manchester or Newcastle which take hours to get to (please don't get clever and say their nearest airport is Ronaldsway !), and there's Dumfries and area in Scotland, likewise a long way from Prestwick. Both would also find Carlisle convenient. LCY could have given "proper" connections to Paris, Brussels, Amsterdam, Frankfurt etc.

Yer showing yer age now dada !
Shall I really show my age and recall Autair doing Luton-Blackpool-Carlisle-Dundee with 748s in the 1960s !

[Big Tudor]

No dispute on the amount of industry in the Carlisle area, I'm sure Sellafield (or whatever it is called today) would also welcome air links with the capital. I just question how much they would actually use the service in reality, particularly on the timetables that are proposed. It would appear that any crews would be Carlisle based with the aircraft. On the proposed schedule that is going to mean hotacing the crew in LTN overnight, that's a straight cost of £200-£300 per night. Add on to that the overnight parking at LTN and you are looking at decent loads (or very high ticket prices) just to break even. I would have thought that using Carlisle as a through stop to pick up / drop off would have been a safer starting point for such a route.

[GrahamK]

Suppose some of those Sellafield protestors in Ireland could hire the a/c during the day to get them over from Ireland quicker to Sellafield ;)

[airhumberside]

Why go to LTN and not LCY?

Why serve London in the evening - useless for business men?

Would an ATR have been cheaper?

Why not do scheduled flights to Dublin and Isle Of Man?

[colegate]

The idea of operating a 146-100 on any route is absurd. Having managed the commercial,operations of the things I know just what a financial disaster they are. To combine them with a thin route like Carlisle to anywhere is a certain way to lose money. Breakeven load factor will be about 200%. But if that is the way they want to throw their money away then let them do it.

As has already been posted Autair did operate the route in the 1960's. Carlisle was a stop en route to Dundee. As I recall it they used the Ambassador. Hopeless and it didn't last long.

[niknak]

Carlisle to anywhere is a non starter, the west coast rail line upgrade is almost complete and it's only 45 minutes drive to Newcastle, where you can travel to London (or anywhere else) far more cheaply than you ever would from Carlisle.
Failing that, Edinburgh is only an hours drive away, with similar air routes available.

I'm not optomistic about about the future of Carlisle airport, after getting through about 5 airport managers in 2 years or so, it makes you wonder why the whole place isn't a building site.

[Oshkosh George]

You would have to be doing 97.9 mph all the way to do Carlisle to Edinburgh in an hour! Just checked on the AA website. They say it's 2 hours 4 minutes. But then I'm just splitting hairs!

I do agree Carlisle is a non-starter. The link mentioned £200 fare. I would definately choose another way.

[nickmanl]

Maybe the route would work weekly but I doubt it very much.

I think Carlise airport should attempt to try and get some summer charters running from the airport as the links to Dublin, London, Paris and Amsterdam are a non starter.

[Oshkosh George]

I take it they've got a terminal then? I've been there,and it didn't exactly hit me between the eyes(I was outside the airfield)

[GrahamK]

Of course it's got a terminal!
3 Check in desks and a bar thats open from about 10am to 4:30pm
:}

[Stan Woolley]

A Plus Vote

If the airport gets its act together there is actually a large catchment area including Dumfries and with decent advertising and a little persistence I'm sure it would work.

[Oshkosh George]

Ah,but what about a cash machine?!?!?!:)

[Oshkosh George]

It was just a tongue in cheek reference to the famous BOH machine,and as I stated,I HAVE been to Carlisle airfield. Has everybody lost their humour?

I don't think I was running Carlisle down by using a bit of humour. Lighten up!

[Oshkosh George]

I would like to see ALL airports prosper.

You say Carlisle people are poorly served,but I've been checking distances.
Carlisle-Newcastle(nearest airport with flights?) is 56.3 miles.
Blairgowrie(where I live)------Edinburgh(nearest airport) is 55.9 miles
Blairgowrie----Aberdeen (2nd nearest? possibly Glasgow nearer--didn't check that!) is 75.2 miles.

So not any worse than me!


edited to say Glasgow is 87.7 miles from me.

[jabird]

Oshkosh,

Are you pulling everyone's leg again?

Where's Blairgowrie in the list of largest UK towns & cities.

Carlisle must be just outside the top 30 - see http://www.mongabay.com/igapo/UK.htm for a list (not too favourable to Manchester though).

Virtually all of the cities on this list are well within 50 miles of an airport which offers scheduled passenger flights. Even those that aren't (Peterbrough? Swindon?) are well within reach of London by fast train services. Carlisle would also be a good starting point to explore Hadrian's Wall. As this is all leisure oriented, the £200 return fare just seems way out of line with the current market. But if FR have made Blackpool work twice per day, could they make Carlisle work too, or is the runway not long enough?

[Oshkosh George]

You must remember,it's not just Blairgowrie. There are an awful lot of towns and villages between Edinburgh and Aberdeen!Dundee has an airport,but ONE service? So these people have to travel to Edinburgh too!

I don't know about Cumbria,so can't compare.

Anyway,I don't really want to hijack thread,so back to Carlisle.

Well,there you go!

From this site--------------

http://www.world-gazetteer.com/fr/fr_gb.htm


Carlisle Pop 2004-----------------74,700
Dundee Pop 2004-----------------155,400

I rest my case! :ok:

[BALIX]

Maybe they should forget Carlisle and start up a service from Walney Island. I mean Barrow is certainly a long where from anywhere :E

[we_never_change]

Instead of a BAe146, what about an BAe ATP, would this be more viable/econimical to operate. Plenty of them around in storage at the moment.

WNC

[Big Tudor]

Since we're talking numbers, the population of Blairgowrie in 2002 was just over 6,000. The power of Google! :8

As for Carlisles catchment area, Cumbria has a population of approx 450,000 whilst Dumfries & Galloway has a population of approx 148,000. Quite a large population , however for the majority of people there are already established airports and routes that are a lot closer to them than Carlisle (South Cumbria closer to LPL & MAN, North D&G closer to PIK & GLA).

I have no doubt that there is a market to be tapped in the North West England / South West Scotland area. However, I would question whether that market justifys a daily point to point service on a BAe146. The publicity that a failed route will attract could damage Carlisles chances of being exploited by the Lo-Cos in the way that Blackpool, Inverness, etc have been.

[GrahamK]

If your in Dumfries, it tends to be quicker to get to NCL than it does to PIk

[Stan Woolley]

BALIX

In the mid 80's Air Furness carried excellent loads for a while out of Barrow. If they hadn't kept crashing the Islanders it would have been interesting to see how it developed, they had an eye on Carlisle too.

[submariner]

I'm surprised at the negativity.

The cost of £200.00 is actually not excessive. I think you will find the absolutely useless Virgin West Coast more expensive even for their Cattle Class of a morning, let alone first. (Actually its thanks to Virgin for the large increase in domestic flights from the North West. they have done an excellent job to promote air travel).

For a lot of people in that area, it is time consuming enough to get to Carlisle, if the option of a flight was available from their then it would appeal to a lot of people. The demand is certainly there, it just hasn't been tapped.

At the moment, they will use LPL for LCC, GLA and MAN for long haul (most also appear to use London by utilising the train if not at peak hours) and PIK and NCL for other options. Therefore the market is quite fractured at the moment.

I can't speak on the operating costs of aircraft, and the best London airport to utilise would probably be LCY (perhaps an option for VLM?). It would also benefit from some interlining.

Other potential options for Carlisle could possibly be a seasonal service to IOM, DUB, BFS and Jersey but I doubt if it would be feasible for much else.

[ELondonPax]

niknak claims that the west coast rail upgrade is almost complete. Hmmm - the train service from Carlisle to London will be interrupted by engineering works every weekend between now and May 2005. I don’t call that complete. The new Virgin Pendolino train may look fab, but is actually less comfortable to ride in over a long journey than the Mark 3 carriage that it replaces. Sadly - trying to buy a Virgin train ticket over the internet is an exercise in frustration - has anyone at Virgin trains ever logged on to the ryanair or easyjet sites?

My family live on the west side of Cumbria. With a late night journey, no traffic, and a very aggressive driver, the airports of Newcastle or Blackpool are two hours away, PIK or MAN are three hours away. Driving to London is six hours at best, usually eight. I’m not interested whether Carlisle has a fancy terminal. I’m not interested in whether it’s on a 146 or a 747. I just want an easier and faster way to get between Cumbria and London.

I do tend to agree with those who say it needs an established name like ryanair to launch this properly if it is to succeed.

[dada]

ElondonPax is wright - an established carrier is what is required- ryanair could possibly make it work. their blk-stn route is a success but i suspect only beacuse they offer a daily service (2xdaily in the week) with competative fares and agressive marketing.

[Nakata77]

does anyone know the surrounding catchment of Carlisle? If anyone is going to make an attempt at Luton-Carlise it MUST be a LCC or it will be running at 25% load factors charging £300 return.

I imagine EUJet are thinking about it.

hehehehehe:)

[ProcATCO]

Speaking as someone who knows Carlisle Airport well from recent experience, there are a number of problems with this proposal for ANY scheduled flights.

1. The PCN of the runway is classified as less than 10!

2. The fire cover available is going to drop as the fire crew are leaving in numbers due to the poor pay and conditions and the way staff are treated by the airport owner.

3. There have been 6 airport managers in the last six years! Mainly good, experienced, competent people who have had no support from the owners, who have left or have been sacked for doing their job.

4. ATC staffing is falling. 3 controllers have left, or are due to leave/retire, in very recent times.

There are a number of other points as well, but until the airport owner decides that he wants an airport, and to run it properly, nothing lasting willl fly from there. The locals think that the owner wants to rezone the land as soon as possible for industrial purposes and sell it off!! The local Council do not want this to happen, bur they may be forced into it, or have to take over the airport again!


:{ :sad:

[smith]

A friend of mine used to work in the Nestle factory down in that neck of the woods and said it was a pure pain trying to get to London for meetings at the head office. Don't know if Nestle are still there but I can see a market for a london service. As it is the regional airports seem to be doing really well at the moment, I think people are fed up with driving for hours to get to LHR and MAN. Look at Darlington and Kent. But I suppose they got bigger catchment areas.

[onion]

Smith what do you mean look at Darlington and Kent? Darlington is a town with in a county and Kent is a county, you can't compare the two. On top of that the centre of Darlington is about 5 miles to Durham Tees Valley (Teesside in old money). So there is already a service to both LHR and AMS for people to interline on. On top of that Darlington has a good train service into Kings Cross.

[AirYard]

Having Lived up in that neck of the woods for a number of years, can tell you what a pain it is trying to get down south. Especially when returning to Uni.

Traffic jams, not to mention trying to get through manchester at more than 40 mph!.


Be a great idea, but don't think its going to work. Plane's too expensive to run, prices will be too high and don't think there is that much demand for it.


personal example.

Im flying ryanair to PIK from Charleroi on 26th, then having to rent a car to drive back down to Carlisle.

Total price.
40 Euros Return to Charleroi from Lux
30 Euros Parking
150 Euros Return.Flight tickets
250 Euros Car hire 4 days

480 Euros total to get over and back for 4 days.

Would work if I could get a flight to luton from hahn or charleroi for 40 euros, then fly up to Carlisle! (still cheaper than the ferry) and should work out about 250 quid, depending on flight prices?

[Sir George Cayley]

Any chance of saying who the owner of Carlisle Airport is?

Just so I can avoid applying to any other companies he or she might own!

Sir George Cayley

[ProcATCO]

Sir George,

I wish I could, but this man is something else as far as litigation is concerned!!!!!!!!!!

However, look to sole owned pharmacutical companies based in Northern Ireland!!

:O

[Dash-7 lover]

As dada said..... Im sure someone like Euroair operated with a 748 LHR-CAX-DND-LHR many years ago when small planes were allowed at LHR.......I though it was British Independent Airways but wern't they at Lydd....confused. Cant see why a 146-100 can't operate from Carlisle as rwy 07/25 is 1837m.........Now they have a web-page under construction doesn't that sound any alarm bells...

[jabird]

ECJ - how many local paper journalists really understand the aviation industry? My local ran a story last year about how a local resident "spotted a near miss", when a 30 second call to the CAA would have confirmed that no such incident took place.

Would any MSP is notice if Ryanair tried to call it in Dumfries south?

ProcATCO - If the PCN at Carlisle is too low for one of Ryanair's 737 800s, might this be the sort of the airport and that could be opened up by Flybe, using their much lighter Q400s. They might not want the expense of using LGW, but could SEN be a possibility? Please excuse any ignorance of PCN numbers, I'm not that technical.

Sub Mariner - You can't blame Virgin for the pig's ear that has been made of the track upgrade. Despite all the negative press, rail travel is also experiencing a growth period at the moment, with 2004 being another record year.