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Flock1
7th Aug 2004, 16:22
Hi all,

Before any of you read this lengthy post, I would just like to point out that there is a very long preamble, and that no real incident of note actually occurs throughout the whole thing.

Okay then, I've been a qualified PPL for about 15 months now, and yesterday, I experienced my most nerve-wracking flight ever.

But before that, I think a bit of explanation about my experience is needed...

I passed by PPL about 15 months ago, and when I initially passed, I did the usual things, like jaunts over the local areas, as well as taking my friends/family up with me. Then, after getting jaded with this, me and another relatively new PPL holder (we knew each other from our training), decided to fly together. We didn't want to fall into the category of 'lapsed PPL holders within a year of passing,' and so we decided to fly together. We reasoned that by doing this, we could not only half the cost of hiring the plane, but we could double the expertise (if you could call it that) that we both possessed.

And so about 8 months ago, we took to flying together, and it was great. We flew to places further afield that either of us would have ordinarily gone to, and we soon developed a routine. Whoever was P1 would have the ultimate 'decision' and whoever was P2, would be chief navigator and radio operator.

Before you read on, you may be thinking that this thread is to slag off my flying mate, but you couldn't be further from the truth. It has little to do with him.

So eventually, we did more together. We knew that because there were two us (licensed pilots no less) we took things in our stride. The pair of us flew to airfields that were totally new to us. We did tarmac/grass/licenced/unlicenced/short/long/Class D airports, and we loved them all. We did MATZ crossings, we did the Manchester low-level corridor, and we donned life jackets to fly across the Irish Sea to the Isle of Man. and we had a whale of a time. And get this - we did all of these trips without a GPS! We flew by the methods taught to us by our instructors.

We knew that, no matter how bad it got, there were two of us to do the job.

Flying with my pal became easy. There was no stress at all. Whenever we flew together, and we came upon a situation that was perhaps 'iffy' we would both analyse it, think of what to do, and then do it. Our threshold of 'terror' began to grow.

That's not to say we became reckless. Far from it. We were always apprehensive before any flight. In fact, I remember once, when we had once just taken off, and after flying for only ten minutes, my pal - flying as P2 at the time, noticed that the temp and pressure gauges in the red. We calmly returned to our airfield, landing safely, but sweating profusely. (We later found out that the gauges were bugg**ed).

So now you know that we are not young hotheads (we are both in our early thirties) and that we do not take risks gladly. So let's return to the point of this (rather lengthy - is anybody still reading it - thread.)

As a new challenge for us both, we decided to broaden our horizons and to fly from Middle England up to Scotland. We diligently planned a route that would take us from our base airfield, on a northerly heading, up the west coast of England, towards our goal. We would route past Blackpool, up past Barrow, and then we would land at our first airport - Carlisle - where we would have a break, and assess the weather. Then we would switch seats and head up to Jockland, landing initially to Dundee, before weighing up our options for our trip back down to our base airfield.

Yesterday came, and before we met up, we both checked the weather. Morning was a no-go, but the afternoon looked fine. We met up and drove over to the airport. We checked the weather again, and it seemed to indicate good weather - except for a 30% chance of temporary periods of 8000 vis in rain showers up at Dundee. When we looked outside, it looked glorious – but that was at our home airport. But nevertheless, we decided that the trip was on. We would take off and fly to Carlisle.

I was P1, and so we headed north, safe in our minds that Forms 414/5 were accurate. At first things were great, but way out in front of us; over on my left-hand side (the Irish Sea) we could see a dense layer of cloud. This was our first inkling that things were not quite right. Regardless, we passed Blackpool, and up towards the north, we could see that layer of cloud stretched from the far horizon to almost the coast. As we got further along our track, the cloud seemed to really thicken.
“Mark,” I said to my pal in the passenger seat. “What do you reckon of that cloud?”
I could tell that my friend was looking at the cloud as well. He said, “Looks a bit dodgy mate.”
I flew on as he switched from Blackpool Approach to Scottish Information.

As we neared Barrow-in-Furness, we reached the rear edge of the cloud. And it was below us. We could still see the ground, and up ahead, we could easily make out the tops of hills, and so we weren’t too worried. We knew where we were, we knew how high (and how low) we could fly, and besides, the cloud ahead might not be closely packed; it might just seem as if it was from where we were. We reasoned that the cloud at Barrow was quite broken, but from further back, it looked solid, and so we elected to carry on.

We were cruising at about 3500ft, and the cloud was about 2000ft. A few minutes later, the cloud started to thicken up. We could still see the ground, but not like before, only intermittently. The holes were smaller and less frequent. I began to have bitter doubts about carrying on, and so voiced my concerns to Mark. I considered turning around.

He agreed, but from his right-hand position, the cloud was more broken, and so he didn’t seem as worried as me, so we cariied on for a few minutes more. The mass of cloud on my left was really worrying me now, and so I banked to the left, asking Mark to look out of my side of the window. What he saw shocked him. It was a sheer white sea of nothingness. It reminded me of the occasions when on board on airliner, all you can see is cloud below. That’s what it was like on my left-hand side.

We turned around.

My tension levels were high, and Mike kept a god look out for any gaps below. We knew that we were more or less alright though, because we could still see various bits of land in the gaps to my left, and we could also see the high ground which rose above he cloud layer. As we flew on, I wondered what it would be like at our home airport. Had the layer of cloud come ashore there as well? How low was its base? Mike and I discussed our options.

We decided that if when we got back, and the cloud had indeed come ashore, then we would fly out to sea, and then descend, hoping to come out the bottom layer before we hit water. There was only one problem with this though – the AI. It was dodgy. When we had first taken off, I checked it, flying straight and level. The AI showed us in a banked attitude. When I went to straight and level according to the AI, we were turning. It was only slightly, but it was enough to cause worry and angst.

I wondered if the sea of white was actually fog, and I could feel my heart beating as I pondered that thought. Eventually, as we passed some high ground, I could see quite a few breaks in the cloud over to my left, and so, after consulting the charts, we headed left for some low ground. Soon we descended and in the far distance we could make out Morecambe Bay. We were saved.

Half an hour later, we were safely back on the ground, thanking our lucky stars. Both of us decided that an IMC course was the next thing we would have to do. After chatting to an instructor (telling him everything) he informed us that we had been still legally flying under our PPL privileges. The fact that we maintained separation from the cloud layer and maintained contact with the ground (albeit sporadically) meant that we were flying in VMC conditions. This surprised me a lot.

Anyway, I leave it there, I gone on far too much, and the reason for posting this ‘tale’ is to ask one basic question. Are Mike and I reckless pilots, cowardly pilots, or are we somewhere in between?

Flock1

kokpit
7th Aug 2004, 16:35
Flock,

I haven't the time to reply and do your post the justice it deserves.

However, I imagine that many have had similar experiences, whether alone or with a P2.

I have, and it was remarkably similar to your post, getting chased by unforecast weather.

I don't think you were reckless at all, and certainly not cowards, most of those are dead.

It's one of those great 'ticks in the box', something that you will both have learnt a great deal from I imagine.

Accept it for what it was, you will be better prepared in the future, and job well done ;)

Kokpit.

shortstripper
7th Aug 2004, 16:42
I'd say neither.

An IMC might have given you more confidence, but to be honest you sound like you knew how to handle the situation quite well and acted accordingly.

SS

Gertrude the Wombat
7th Aug 2004, 17:05
I found myself, likewise with a PPL and no instrument qualifications, over gradually thickening clound a couple of weeks ago. Like you, I turned back ... and as I turned saw the top end of a radio mast sticking out from the cloud layer up ahead, not something I'd ever seen before. (I didn't return to base, I flew round the cloud layer and, after a bit of messing around, found my destination.)

Should I have turned back sooner? In my case the answer was yes, I should, by about two minutes. I'm not going to judge your answer for you, that's your job.

The "in sight of the ground" requirement seems to mean different things to different people. I've often heard that it means "50% cloud cover beneath you is OK". I've not often heard what you were told, that the occasional glimpse of the ground is OK. Having decided I didn't like it with 50% cloud beneath me I've decided that my limit is nearer 25%.

The question one should ask oneself surely has to be this: If the fan stops now, will I get down safely? If the answer is "no", then there's too much cloud beneath you.

[Oh, and one for the lawers: One can be legal, more than 1000' above a 50% cloud layer, but with lots of little clouds and lots of little gaps such that one couldn't maintain proper separation from the clouds were one to descend between them (all this well above 3000'). It's legal to carry on, not legal to descend through the gaps. Clever, eh?]

bookworm
7th Aug 2004, 17:34
Anyway, I leave it there, I gone on far too much, and the reason for posting this ‘tale’ is to ask one basic question. Are Mike and I reckless pilots, cowardly pilots, or are we somewhere in between?

You were pilots with a Plan A and a Plan B. You came, you saw, you diverted. Nothing wrong with that, it's how it's supposed to work.

It's worth looking into the psychological aspects of what I think is called risk shift in group decision making. Did you together make a riskier decision than you would have if either of you had been flying alone. If with hindsight you think you did, be aware of the phenomenon.

Whirlybird
7th Aug 2004, 17:53
I agree with all the previous posts, and was about to post about risk shift, but bookworm got in first. It's really easy to think that because your co-pilot hasn't said anything, he's happy. Be careful that he's not thinking the same thing about you.

Just a couple of things more...

If you're flying with a dodgy AI, bear it in mind, and keep very well away from clouds.

You mention that you considered letting down over the sea, if not for the AI. Under such circumstances, without an IMC, I'd suggest talking to D & D. They'll either by able to make sure you are indeed over the sea, or maybe direct you to somewhere with less cloud. You could certainly do with some help under such circumstances.

You're not reckless, nervous, or somewhere in between, just normal and fairly inexperienced. Most of us probably have similar stories...or will in the future. It doesn't take a lot for flying to go from great fun to extremely scary, and when it does it knocks your confidence a bit. You did fine. But if you'd turned back when you wanted to, rather than when Mark did as well, you'd probably have scared yourself less.

Finally, I fly quite often with a friend, and we split up the workload much as you do. But we have one rule that's a little different - if either one of us isn't happy about something, for any reason or no reason at all, we don't do it....at least, we talk about it first.

Tinstaafl
7th Aug 2004, 19:30
Nervous? Yes. Reckless? No.

You're both going through the same development of experience & judgement everyone goes through on the way to becoming more experienced pilots. The process never stops - as long as you always have an 'out', just as you did. This experience will be one of many in your flying history. You will encounter other times where your **current** skills are challenged. Like this event you'll learn from them & be able to apply the knowledge another time.

Have fun & enjoy the development of your competency!

18greens
7th Aug 2004, 23:10
I got caught like this once. If you checked the forecast and it was Ok then you have done all that was expected. You then did the right thing by sorting it out. You will probably enjoy the IMC but having done the IMC you will probably do the following.

Instead of heading away from cloud and hoping it will turn out OK, give your base field a radio call and ask them what the weather is like. If its pants ask them for the nearest clear aerodrome. If you can't reach the local field London Information will give you weather for any aerodrome. Most LARS services also have access to weather. If they can't help D&D will. You are not alone.

Thing is don't fly home expecting life to be OK then find you don't have fuel to make the alternate which is clear and was reachable when you originally noticed the problem.

Weather forecasts can be wrong.

FWA NATCA
8th Aug 2004, 01:40
Flock1,

Sounds like you two did the right thing, you accessed the weather and initially found it suitable, but during the flight noticed that it became dicey, or it was exceeding your comfort zone, so you turned around and went home.


From a controllers perspective you guys did good! Don't let this rattle you, establish good weather minimums, stick by them, and whenever enroute weather starts to go down, then you will be prepared to make the right decision again. .

Mike
NATCA FWA

LowNSlow
8th Aug 2004, 04:15
As everybody else said, you did the right things.

Enjoy the development of your flying, with your current attitudes you'll enjoy the IMC.

Tell the club to get the AI fixed!

stillin1
8th Aug 2004, 08:01
You done good. You have practical experience of genuine real time decision making now, which will probably make the next decisions possible in an even more timely manner. The "if the donk stops now can I put it on the ground" advice is excellent. The rules are for guidance and to be observed of course, but I still ask myself the same questions as you did and G the Wombat does - is this sensible and really, for me, is it safe enough?.
Have fun - you appear to be flying responsably, safely and with a sutable level of comman sense. The written rule is a limit - you probably do need to set yourself more restrictive ones till you gain more hours and experience.

spellin misteaks are to annoy the pedantick:cool:

bookworm
8th Aug 2004, 08:10
I got caught like this once. If you checked the forecast and it was Ok then you have done all that was expected.

While I know what you're getting at, I think that's a rather broader statement than I'd use. Weather forecasts do go wrong, and it's important for pilots to take account of that. The key is always to have an alternative plan. In many cases for VFR flight, that's as simple as "make a 180 degree turn and head home" which is pretty close to what happened here. But it's always worth thinking through that possibility, and in particular the issue of fuel management associated with it.

Whirlybird
8th Aug 2004, 08:42
Yet again, bookworm said it before I could. But there's an interesting psychological thing about unforecast bad weather. I find - and I'm sure I'm not unique - that there's a part of me that just can't quite believe it. How can that be low cloud, when the forecast said it would be CAVOK? I know that cloud's getting lower and lower and it's starting to drizzle, and I know that means an approaching warm front, but it can't be; it isn't due for several hours yet. There can't be many thunderstorms, it was only a PROB30 in the TAFs. You have to remind yourself - and remind co-pilots sometimes - to look at reality, no matter what the forecast said. Me, I've been there, done that, been caught out...unplanned overnight in Blackpool due to a line of thunderstorms from Liverpool to Leeds, when the TAF said PROB30 TS.

So now, I always assume things might go wrong. I make sure I have alternates, plus enough fuel to get to them or to get home. I have a handheld radio, as sod's law says the radio will probably pick the bad weather day to fail, when you really need help. And I try to make sure I have nothing urgent to do the next day, if I'm going on a cross country flight.

Am I a nervous pilot? Probably. But I prefer to say I'm prudent. Far more than I was when I had less hours.

Flock1
8th Aug 2004, 09:43
Thanks for all the replies.

The bit about 'if the engine conked out, would we got down?' - in our particlar case, and on the way up, yes. On the way back home, no. By turning around, we actually flew into the worsening weather behind us, but luckily, we knew (well hoped anyway) that it would clear by the time we got back down to Barrow - which it did.

As for the other interesting bit, the bit about two pilots having a higher threshold of get-there-itis, I think this is totally true. If I had been flying solo, or with my mum for instance, I would have turned back when I first got those inklings of doubt, not half-an-hour later.

Interesting debate.

2close
8th Aug 2004, 10:42
Flock1,

Thank you, your post has taught me something.

I had a similar experience riding RH in a PA28 from Swansea to Hawarden via Brecon town last month.

The P1 for the outward journey was a recently qualified PPL (I'm only 210 hrs) and we had forecast BKN clouds between 3000 - 4000 (as I recall). We would be passing under N864 Airway North of Brecon with a base of FL65 at our crossing point and the plan was to go up at 5000 to (a) keep 1000' vertical separation from the cloud (b) observe quadrantal rules and (c) keep out of the airway. Needless to say, as we approached the crossing point the clouds starting going up and getting denser. The P1 begged my (limited) advice and looking ahead it appeared to be developing into overcast. We decided to climb slolwly and push on a little but as feared it became overcast (sorry, neither of us is IMC or IR rated) and we were nudging the base of the airway so I recommended a 180 and look for a suitable place to descend and see if we could go under the clouds. We turned left through 120 and found a very large clearing that allowed us to descend but we were coming close to D203 - however, the lake to its SW was visible so we used that as a ground reference.

We resumed track and continued on our journey. Ten minutes later the overcast cloud dissipated greatly into SCT Cu between 3500 - 5000 and the rest of our journey was totally uneventful, except for......well......that's another story.

However, to the point. Reading back through this I checked the charts to confirm the Airway and Danger Area numbers and noted the Airways limit as being FL65+ / FL105+ (see Note 7) which on checking referred to the AIP, which I then had a look at. It seems that between 0700 - 2000 the Airway base limit is the upper figure published not the lower one so we could have quite legally gone up to 9000, which would have taken us over the top of the cloud and still kept out of the airway.

This was something we should both have picked up on during the Flight Planning stage and I rap myself severely over the knuckles for not having done so.

Again, my thanks, it just goes to prove that we do learn from others experience, albeit in this case in a round-about way.

Best Regards,

2close

englishal
8th Aug 2004, 11:37
What you'll find is that you'll meet these sorts of situations no matter how many qualifications you get, just on a different level. I suppose its something to do with flying :D. When you're IMC rated, no doubt you'll be in a situation where you have to fly an approach down to minimums. You'll do it fine, though your heart will be pounding and when you land you'll think "was that wise?". Or you'll be flying along in IMC with embedded Cbs around, again the heart will be going like the clappers, you'll be hearing big aircraft "diverting for weather" and you'll seriously start to wonder if you'll come out of it in one piece. Later you'll be in the bar and your experiences will turn into great bar stories :D

Just make sure you learn from each experience.....

EA

Obs cop
8th Aug 2004, 19:47
Flock1,

Thanks for the comments re: my IMC rating thread.

I have to say that in the circumstances you describe, you displayed far more airmanship than might have been thought by many with your experience levels.

Knowing when to turn back or divert is easy with hindsight, but realistically each and every pilot has a slightly different thought process and threshold. The decision you made looks to me to be the right one IMHO and made at the right time.

People will always criticise, but you were in the plane and if you reach the "I'm not having fun any more" stage then you need to look at your situation, just as you did and decide accordingly.

You were neither reckless nor a coward, you were captain of the aircraft and took steps to ensure the safety of it and the occupants.

I'll keep you updated on the IMC rating,:ok:

Obs cop

boomerangben
9th Aug 2004, 09:38
then we would fly out to sea, and then descend, hoping to come out the bottom layer before we hit water


I would not recommend this, even to an IR rated pilot unless you have a radalt and radar. Even with these items, the MSA is 1500'. If there is any hint of fog, you will not see the surface until maybe 80 feet and even then it will not be easy to see the water.

Northern Highflyer
9th Aug 2004, 10:57
Sounds like you handled the situation well. It is very similar to one I had a couple of weeks ago.

I was P1, flying with a friend from Yorkshire down to Duxford. The weather was forecast ok with some poor vis to the East but clearing to the South. We assessed that we were ok to go and off we went. Pretty quickly we saw what can only be described as a wall of cloud which looked to be thinning out to the South. We adjusted heading slightly to avoid the worst of it and descended to try to get under it. It was soon apparent that this wouldn't work as we were at 1000' with the cloud still closing in around us. I made a decision to climb while my friend plotted some bearings and tracks using a VOR and NDB (we are both IMC rated). We were receiving a RIS service and things seemed fine but my workload had gone up immensely. While we were safe and knew where we were, I wasn't totally happy with the situation. We continued for about another 15 minutes and got a wx report stating that the cloud was still down to 1000' and it certainly wasn't clearing as forecast. By now we were at 4200' in thick cloud and it started to rain. Neither of us wanted to do the whole trip in IMC due to the high workload and we were also concerned that it may deteriorate even further (maybe embedded CB) so we calculated a new heading and routed back. Within 20 minutes the cloud broke and we were able to descend and route back home in VMC.

Despite all the training it was still a little unsettling entering IMC like that. As others have said, remaining current on instruments cannot be overstated. I learned a lot that day and it will hopefully make me a better pilot.

Brooklands
9th Aug 2004, 13:12
Flock1,

As all the others have siad - you handled the situation well.

One other thing you could have tried, which may have reduced the tension levels a bit as you headed back would have been to tune in to Volmet North, which would have given you the recent weather for the major airfields. You could use that information to build a picture of what the weather was like nearer to your home base ( assuming its not too far from a major airport), and also get some idea of where you may be able to divert to. We used this trick before leaving Sandown after the last PPRUNE fly-in: we found that the weather near our home airfield was still good, and that the low(ish) cloud was confined to the south coast.

Brooklands

MichaelJP59
9th Aug 2004, 16:34
then we would fly out to sea, and then descend, hoping to come out the bottom layer before we hit water

I would not recommend this, even to an IR rated pilot unless you have a radalt and radar. Even with these items, the MSA is 1500'. If there is any hint of fog, you will not see the surface until maybe 80 feet and even then it will not be easy to see the water.

With no other options and complete cloud cover what would you do though? Surely it's better to descend to the sea which is at least a roughly predictable height rather than chancing it over land?

- Michael

IO540
9th Aug 2004, 18:11
Legalities aside, in an emergency and assuming the pilot has the ability to do this, the safest should be a radar vectored ILS into an airfield with no high ground around it. The next option would be a descent over the sea (checking one's position using TWO independent methods, e.g. GPS and VOR/DME beforehand) and I would do that down to 500ft QNH, for a straight in visual approach into a runway close to the coast. The worst has got to be an NDB IAP into some place with hills, especially knowing how bad an ADF will be with bad weather about.

Gertrude the Wombat
9th Aug 2004, 18:41
With no other options and complete cloud cover what would you do though? In the absence of radio failure, the other option is talk to someone. Call Mayday on 121.5. Tell them that you've screwed up, that you're in the ...., that you'd like some help getting down alive. Worry about the paperwork later. Surely to goodness do this before trying to let down in cloud over the sea or land without the appropriate qualifications!!

mad_jock
10th Aug 2004, 11:31
Sounds like you got caught by east coast Haar.

Sounds like you did completly the right thing and well done for posting letting others learn from your experence.

As note its always worth while giving your destination airport a ring up in jockland. Most have local wx conditions which the locals know about but unfortunatly the met office dosn't seem to pick up on. The haar is famous for sitting off shore for hours then when the tide changes it comes belting in sometimes fast enough to catch people in the circuit. Also because of the nature of the beast it can remove alot of alternates at once ie all the east coast airfields down to nearly Newcastle. And when it does come in it dosn't matter if you have a IMC or IR the RVR's will be that low that fully kitted airliners will be struggling to get in.

Don't let it put you off though. Just have a route backup. If the east coast is looking dodgy the west is usually clear prestwick is always a good bet as a get out.

The subject of decending over water must admit i have done this. But its pretty dodgy even if you know the area and have all the kit and there are some oil rigs at nearly 500ft. And if you have been caught by the haar it ain't going to do you any good at all.

Best thing is a call to D&D and let them do the hard work while you keep the machine safe.

MJ

boomerangben
10th Aug 2004, 12:03
Firstly, good initial post. Sounds like a text book account.

THere is a story of a GA pilot getting caught out in poor weather, called D&D who scrambled a SAR helicopter. The plane was asked to formate on the Seaking which guided the a/c onto the runway - interesting first ILS no doubt, but a happy ending.

IMHO to descend for a cloud break over the sea would be the last option, ie when there was only fuel enough to get down and get to the nearest airfield.

BRL
10th Aug 2004, 12:24
A couple of weeks ago, I heard a D reg cessna calling Shoreham from mid channel. He was not far from Seaford and kept calling out but, he was that low, Shoreham couldn't hear him. His messages were eventually relayed by a helicopter and he revealed he was down to 300 ft and heading towards the coast. There was at the time quite a bit of sea-mist in the channel but hardly any at all inland. He made it and climbed up to 1600 shortly after crossing inland where it was clear. I wonder exactly how low he would have gone before doing something about it.

v6g
10th Aug 2004, 16:32
Here's an excellent article on the perils of VFR flight into IMC, from a Canadian perspective, but the same factors come into play.

http://www.jalbrecht.ca

Flock1
12th Aug 2004, 14:28
I agree with the last post, the article suggested is excellent. It really makes the old blood flow! Scary.

dublinpilot
12th Aug 2004, 16:23
Experiences like this help you learn where your personal limits are.

In the end you had a plan A, and a plan B. You were no longer sure of making plan A, so you switched to plan B. That's good work. Well done for making the decision.

Only thing I would add it the above is to use the services you have available to you.

I once had a flight where I had to fly around some bad weather. My take departure point had good weather, and my destination had a good taf & metar, but there was some cloud in between. I would up having to go further around it than I had planned, and I was starting to wonder if the conditions at my destination had changed too. I was receiving a Flight Information Service at the time. I decided to get some information from it! I asked the ATC'er for the latest METAR at my destination, and it was even better than before take off! It put my mind at ease, and everything was fine at my destination.

Funny, up to that, I'd always thought of ATC as someone I was working to help and fit in with, and since, I've thought of them as being there to help me out!

Anyway, don't be afraid to ask for some information if you are receiving a service.

dp

Whirlybird
12th Aug 2004, 20:08
And as others have said, don't be afraid to talk to D & D. It's what they're there for!