new longhaul fleet for Aer Lingus

[Shamjet]

Rumour has it Mr Walsh is being courted by boeing again, but this time they're offering the new, made to measure, 7e7.??

Is this posssible after he has just grabbed all those shiny new airbus 320's??

Or is walsh once again trying to bluff his way to more Airbus magic?
His obvious upcoming exploration of eastern airspace is just about to be unveiled , perhaps after the summer rush???

SJ

[WHBM]

Shamjet:

You will find that the sales departments from both major manufacturers are speaking to all potential customers all the time, with new deals, new proposals, etc. It's their job !

The sales juniors get given the "unlikely cases" first, to see how well they do. If there's a bite the heavyweight team move in.

[akerosid]

Although the conventional wisdom certainly favours Airbus in this case, Boeing should not be ruled out. Remember, Aer Lingus is waiting for a decision on new US access before deciding on a new fleet. With current disputes over cabotage (which EI isn't interested in), such a decision could take a long time, in which case EI is dependant on a special Irish/US deal.

Things becoming clearer now? "We'll give you access if you make the right fleet decision . . ."

In addition to this, EI has to ask whether the 333 is really the right aircraft for it to grow on t/a routes. The 332 is fine (although they really need to look into their service product, generally), but it does need to look ahead. A deal for a new aircraft would allow EI to inccorporate a new service product (PTVs etc.) and it would have an aircraft (the 772) with growth potential, which the 333 doesn't have.

Boeing will be well aware of EI's growth ambitions and therefore, it will see the airline as a potential 7E7 customer, which is a good incentive for giving them a good deal. If it can support and facilitate the growth of a good customer, it means more orders. Does Airbus have the same incentive to facilitate this growth? It may well feel that with the 320 order in the bag, it has EI in its pocket . . .

This will be an interesting contest.

[akerosid]

Aertel is reporting that SB had discussions with his US counterpart on EU/US access and is referring to an October date for an agreement; as well as being later than hoped, the proximity to what's likely to be a particularly vicious election might delay it until early 2005.

If EI is not likely to get increased US access this year, it might be more likely to look east for expansion. I don't know how the increasingly complicated entry restrictions (fingerprinting, data sharing etc.) for the US might work against EI; if there's a big bust-up between the EU and US over this, increased access for EI might end up being a pyrrhic victory.

Finally, I wonder what the chances are of a side deal being done between Ireland and the US, subject to EI making the "right" aircraft decision . . .

[mini]

Given Mr Walshe's remarks following the shorthaul fleet deal - fleet standardisation, lower costs etc. I can't see EI going anywhere but Airbus, its pretty certain that the longhaul fleet renewal was also considered/discussed during negotiations.

EI are on a conservative footing prior to the inevitable sell off, taking a "gamble" on the 7E7 doesn't seem to fit the picture, regardless of whatever "proposal" Boeing presents.

Just watching the order wires, it seems that Boeing have taken their eye off the ball recentely, I hope this changes, stiff competition is in everyones interest.

[akerosid]

This week's Flight Intl reports that Aer Lingus is
examining dumping its A321s in favour of an all-A320 fleet. The
airline also said it will require a 6,500nm (12,000km) widebody in
future, and will consider the A330-200 and -300 as well as the B777 and 7E7.

OK, on the one hand. one might say they have to include Boeing to make sure Airbus doesn't think it has the order in the bag.

On the other hand, the A330-300 is certainly not going to be able to do 6,500nm with any kind of decent payload, if at all. Where's the growth potential for the A330-200. Notice that the A340 has been omitted altogether (presumably due to runway length considerations at DUB?). So, if the new routes are successful, there's nowhere to go from the 332.

Boeing, on the other hand, has a pretty decent range (of aircraft, as well as "range" literally!) and gives EI growth potential and with Seamus B. now talking of an agreement on new US routes not being made before October, a deal with Boeing might "grease the wheels" a bit, by encouraging the US authorities to open some new gateways to EI.

Very interesting times ahead . . .

[Tom the Tenor]

Dumping the A321s is not such a fab idea and certainly not off the Cork-Heathrow services as the last few weeks can testify. Loads have been at 100 per cent for the four daily flights or at worst just literally a handful short.

Fine, if in the future they put on about two extra A320 flights to make up the shortfall. Thinking about it that would not be a bad idea - lot of new destinations could probably be started ex ORK!

How good a performer would a 772ER be off DUB's RW10/28 - could the aircraft's full capability be used? And what about the improved A340-300E that South African Airways use - is take off performance anyway better there? :D

[akerosid]

Hi Tom,

You're right about the 777; I remember having this discussion on the Triple 7 Yahoogroup a while back; the 777-200ER could not depart 28 on a n/s stop flight of 6,500nm. Perhaps the -200LR would have sufficient extra thrust to enable this.

The A333 doesn't have the range, but the 332 may just be able to shade it, although it's pretty much at the edge of its capability.

[SNNEI]

I would not be in favour of getting rid of the A321's, unless extra rotations were introduced on certain routes: ORK-LHR, as tom has pointed out, needs all the capacity it can get at present, and EI's slot holding at LHR is tight in any case and may come under more pressure from it's oneworld partners should any of them be needing some slots...

Of course, EI may also intend using it's A330's more on European routes... it does that at present in any case and it may be a solution for ORK-LHR?

However, if dumping the A321 means getting a higher number of A320's as replacment: bring it on! maybe then my beloved ORK-AMS route will go back to 2 a day..;)

Tom: any news on how Milan, Barcelona and Alicante are doing these days? any numbers for us? Hope it's all going well down there!

[Tom the Tenor]

Using an A330-200 would be a very good solution for this summer's problems ex ORK to LHR. Swissair used to use them from Zurich to LHR. Also good practice for the EI crews in preparation for North Atlantic operations ex Cork in the next year or two. Just say, base an A330-200 at Cork and fly the EI710 rotation to and from LHR and then a possible 1330 departure for New York?

Yes, if the A321s were to go it would come close to demanding a second A320 for Cork basing. This would immediately relieve the second Amsterdam problem which is a very serious situation. Travel agents are at present finding it very difficult to repatriate pax back to ORK. The people in authority at Aer Lingus have made a huge miscalculation here with the diminshing of the AMS & LHR service.

BMI take note re: LHR. EZY or Transavia/Basiq Air take note re: AMS or Rotterdam.

Milan is the least performing of MXP, BCN and ALC. MXP did very well over the Easter holiday but is a little slower now but will pick up again from June when the summer hols kick in? Hope so!

[SNNEI]

Tom,

EI managers should really take a quick look at their own site: There is NO availability From AMS to ORK from May 1st to May 6th. Not one single seat....

As one of their more frequent travellers on ORK-AMS, i'm now forced to write to management... I'll be more than happy to share any reply I get...

;)

[Tom the Tenor]

Getting back to the long haul options - winter operations are a totally different ball game for airlines operating the North Atlantic out of Ireland and even more so out of Shannon so does anyone have any ideas about something like the new Airbus A319LR flying to the likes of Boston or to some newer thinner East Coast routes? The German A319CJ flying on behalf of LH from DUS to EWR and ORD is fascinating as is the new AF A319LRs on long range thin routes to points in Africa and Iran.

Such an operation with an A319LR could create new long range opportunities for EI from places like BFS, SNN, Knock and ORK? Or, equally, out of Dublin to DXB and on to Hong Kong.

Granted, the economies of scale with a smaller aircraft are not so good but Ireland is small country with a small population but with a large number of airports, relatively speaking, of course!

Just some ideas!

[SNNEI]

Tom,

Would be great, but I doubt EI is the one to do it with the emphasis seeming to be lower fares with maximum number of bums on seats

:)

In any case, I think Cork in particular can support a 332 at least to NY, if perhaps the flight continued on to Belfast. It was done on the Shannon-NY service as you will probably re-call.

SNN originating PAX numbers on services to the US are not as bad as some would have you believe. Aerlingus get about 40% of US passengers as SNN originating, so the market is there without question (I would at this juncture like to point out to all that I am 100% against the Shannon stopover!) Thats 400,000 pax per annum approximatly, and of course this does not include CO, DL or US.

Knock in my estimation probably could also support a US service given a few more years of development, with CO probably having what it takes in terms of aircraft (757)and U.S hub.

Aerlingus should also be able to operate to Asia within a short while using the A332 I reckon.

One route I would definitely point out where EI probably would do very well with the kind of operation you are suggesting is Dublin- San Jose california. With the computer industry links between Ireland and Silicon valley, even San Jose airport authority has identified it as a service with potential. In reality it would be the perfect route for say an A319LR. Mostly business Pax.....

[Silver Tongued Cavalier]

emphasis seeming to be lower fares with maximum number of bums on seats

Absolutely!! Expect a reduction in the current size of Premier Class on some of the A330's. EI is going to be a Low Cost Long Haul Airline too!

Aerlingus should also be able to operate to Asia within a short while using the A332 I reckon

Here I tend to be less optimistic. For a number of reasons.

1) Until EI get proper industry standard horizontal crew rest facilities, EI A330's are going nowhere new, not even to San Fran/San Jose. IALPA would never agree to this after being hoodwinked over the startup of the LAX operation which has left a considerably bad aftertaste.

2) The range of the A330-200 with max payload.

When people look up the Airbus range figures on the Airbus website "253 passengers in a three-class cabin layout up to 6,650 nm/12,300km", remember this is the manufacturers PR marketing figures! In reality this is a bit less, just like the car manufacturers and their mpg quotes! Also when people look up those great circle mapper distances, this is the absolute theoretical mathematical minimum! Not reality unfortunately, in Airline Ops, add around 10% to the great circle distance for a realistic route, and another 10% for potential headwinds, especially Westbound to the US. Also as any skipper would like a few tonnes of extra fuel to hold etc etc before thinking about having to divert from his intended destination, the "PR man's maximum range" has come down considerably!!!

Take it from me the classic EI A330-300s can take max payload (full pax, bags, full cargo) to Chicago off Rwy 28, but not further. Great Circle Dist 3192nm, Airbus claim 4500nm.

An A330-200 can take max payload to LAX off Rwy 28 and not much further. Great circle dist 4502nm, Airbus 6650nm. If they want to go further they take off payload and put on fuel. Simple. However has discussed previously this is not the new EI business plan!

Flight International article :

Great Circle Distances!!!!

DUB-DXB 3200nm
DXB-KUL 2997nm
DXB-HKG 3202nm
DXB-BKK 2638nm

All these routes are PERFECT for the A330-300 or 200!!!!

Anyone get what I'm thinking? :ok:

DUB-BKK 5323nm, Too far for A330-200 with full load.
DUB-HKG 5318nm, Too far for A330-200 with full load.
DUB-CPT 5386nm, Too far for A330-200 with full load.

Willie Walsh does not want to go any further than this which is why he has asked for an aircraft with a 6500nm claimed range.

A319LR, Nice idea but doesn't fit in with the new business plan unfortunatly.

Long live the A321's!!!

Regarding Boeing and the 7E7, I think it offers a bit too much range 8300nm to 8500nm, at the expense of airframe weight???

Someone might be able to confirm but I think that the 777-200ER could get it's max take off weight off Rwy 28, around 8000ft needed on a standard day? Some machine, and a serious option for Aer Lingus to the Far East direct.

The proposed and scrapped A330-500 in the Year 2000 would have been perfect for EI. Eight frames shorter than the -200, 222 Pax, and range of 7000nm. Was planned for a third quarter 2003 first flight, and service entry a year later!! :{

Also perfect would be the A340-200/300. IF ONLY DUB RUNWAY WAS LONG ENOUGH!! :{

Oh well , there's always an option of a fuel stop in Shannon!! ;)

Goodnight!!

[MarkD]

Not commenting on the 330 replacement beyond unless crew training is provided by Boeing gratis then replacing the existing 330s with B7x7s seems mad. Do newer 330s have higher MTOWs allowing ORD with IFE?

Agree with ORK-LHR - always seems jammed. 321 ex SNN a few months back was full, and that's winter. IMHO all LHR flights should be 321 to get full value for slots.

330 ORK-LHR - seems hard to justify on a reg. basis since EI 330s probably have high rotations as it is with SNN and all.

319LR - AC are using it for South America route proving, that's where they see future shekels. However, that's for long thin routes where existing connections are onerous (i.e. via US) since the slower 319 is outpaced by bigger a/c like 767, 330, 744.

[Tom the Tenor]

Quite a tour de force you have there, you Silver Tongued Cavalier, you!

So, the future might be more A330-200s and some Boeing 777-248ERs? :suspect:

Yes, the A340-200/300s would be just right for Asia if only the runways were right so it is evident that both Cork and Dublin both now need a little more concrete. About 500 metres for DUB and about 200 metres for Cork would do?

Quite troubled, though, by tonight's RTE News at 9 pm which seemed to imply we are in for another 3 years of the Shannon stopover whenever the new deal is signed on between the EU and the USA. Is the madness set to continue like this?

EI A321s on SNN-LHR and always crammed? Interesting. It is going to be even worse now as FR are down to x 2 to STN ex SNN for the summer! :oh:

[Exospheric]

Knock is indeed well placed for a US route, recent developments seem to show that it might not be all that far off.

One has to assume, of course, that the stopover lunacy will cease.

Knock has no problems with concrete, having regularly operated B763 trans-atlantic, and operating B757 (type unconfirmed) to Capetown this year.

[akerosid]

Reading today's IT, it's not quite as bad as it sounds. Yes, there is a reference to a phased withdrawal of the stopover, but there is a clear indication from SB that SNN should not be relying on the stopover. That there was an angry response from the Signal lobby should be reason enough for optimism!

I understand that the current plan is to move from a 1:1 to a 2:1 deal, whereby EI (and other carriers) would only have to provide 1 flight to/from SNN for every two from DUB; this enables EI to double its existing 22 flights a week n/s from Dublin, effectively allowing it to add daily services to three new cities, as it has apparently committed itself to do.

My biggest fear is that Open Skies could turn out_ to be something of a pyrrhic victory - free access, but with all the obstructions, visas, etc. that the Americans are planning to introduce, traffic could decline. One very recent report suggests a drop of around 30% in visitors to the US.

This makes it all the more important that EI diversifies away from its reliance on US flights, adding Asia - as it has planned, but also Canada too.

[SNNEI]

Aeroskid,

Amen to that! About time we saw a little diversity in the Aer Lingus network...

and yes, if Signal are pis$ed, that is indeed an encouraging sign!:)

Just an after-thought: could it not be that EI has excluded the A340 here in the hope that Airbus might make an offer for said aircraft that EI could not refuse? WW is indeed shrewd when it comes to new aircraft deals as we saw from the long drawn out european fleet selection...

[akerosid]

Much as I'd love to see Aer Lingus A340s, the issue of simply one of performance. The A330-200 is, for the moment, the best aircraft. The A340-300/777 might just be too big, whereas the 270 seat capacity of the 332, plus its superb cargo capacity, might be just right. If Airbus can tinker with performance so as to allow a n/s operation of c.6,000nm from Dublin's Runway 10/28, then it will probably get the deal.

On the other hand, the 332 is selling extremely well; does Airbus have the incentive to give EI such a good deal, particularly as it feels it probably has EI in the bag, with the 320 order.

Boeing, on the other hand, has a very good incentive; it knows EI has ambitious plans and it has a new aircraft to sell. The 777 would make a good 333 replacement, but the 777 would not be the best aircraft for new long haul flights.

This is why it would not surprise me if an earlier prediction came true: a combination of 332s and 777s. Part of Boeing's deal could include extra 332s, to carry EI forward until the 7E7-900 comes onstream in c.2009-10. The 777s could replace the 333s in the meantime.

It's still a mountain to climb for Boeing, however and it needs to be aware of the danger of being "Dutch auctioned" against Airbus.

[SNNEI]

I agree with what you say, but much of this discussion seems to be done on the premise that 10/28 is incapable of being extended. Of course, that isnt true. Aer Rianta have the land at either end in which to do it, and I assume that short extensions dont need to go through the Environmental impact reporting and so on ( I think I read somewhere that only a runway in excess of 2000 meters needs to go through that in IE law?.. I know.. I was kinda surprised too!)

I'm sure if an Airline declared an intention to utilise A340's on a regular basis, a 400M extension can be put in place quite quickly? Please correct me if wrong. The only reason DUB ever got such a short runway was the beloved SNN stop which we all know is pretty much for the scrap heap (well, we hope... :)

[mini]

Exo,

757 Knock to Capetown? must be the flight from hell...

[akerosid]

I actually raised that very possibility with various people in the past; Aer Rianta, in particular, is against it. It's proceeding with the new longer runway (but will no doubt cite the cap on expenditure as a result of the aviation regulator's decision) as an excuse for not lengthening the runway.

This is why I think we need to focus on twins, in particular the 332 and the 777. Both should be able to make HKG and perhaps higher thrust models of each (a -204/224 version of the 332 and the 772ER with the LR's engines) might be able to overcome whatever performance obstacles exist at DUB.

The current "vibe" is that due to the EU demanding concessions on ownership caps on US carriers and cabotage, there is unlikely to be a deal in the near term. This being the case, EI is depedant on a deal between Ireland and the US and it may well be that in order to get a deal, Aer Lingus might well decide that a Boeing deal is best for them. Personally, I would see 777-200s replacing the 333s and the 332s soldiering on (in slightly higher numbers) to the end of the decade, when 7E7s become available.

EI has said on previous occasions that if a deal was done, it would aim to add three new destinations within 3 months. With the current difficulty in getting 332s, it might well be forced into Boeing's arms. Boeing's incentive to get hold of 777s for EI (with the promise of a sizeable 7E7 order in the future) would be greater than Airbus's incentive to provide 332s to the carrier. ;)

[Flame]

Gentlemen (and ladies)

Interesting debate about EI long haul and service products, but here is my 2C worth.....

A319 is a non starter totally. My understanding is that a review of premier traffic transatlantic has shown that a very large amount of pax sitting "up front" are FF upgrades or pax upgraded because the economy cabin is presently doing very well, last 2 weeks, staff at the airport will tell you that almost every single transatlantic flight has had about %110 of capacity turning up.

I agree that EI is about to become a fully fledged low cost carrier, especially on the Atlantic.

But I have a few questions...

1). Aer Lingus now have no premier service to a number of European cities, Prague is a case in point, yet they still offer a lounge for FF's..surely this strange, as all pax on the PRG route will be in economy

2)what will the company do in relation to cost saving at airports where they no longer offer a premier service and yet still have longe access for the FF's

3) anybody any idea where the TAB programme is going and what plans are for the future

[Silver Tongued Cavalier]

Do newer 330s have higher MTOWs allowing ORD with IFE?

Yes the new A330-300IGWs (with a 233T MTOW as opposed to the current 215T Aer Lingus A330-300s )would have no problem to ORD with a IFE suite. Have seen the Qatar 330 IFE, videos on demand in Economy!! Very good system indeed. That 18T increase is equivalent to an extra 180 passengers!

Agree with ORK-LHR - always seems jammed. 321 ex SNN a few months back was full, and that's winter. IMHO all LHR flights should be 321 to get full value for slots

Yes, Cork is always jammed year round, SNN seems busy this year too, the A321 worked well during the winter, and now seems to have gone to a 320 FOR THE SUMMER! Guess the 321 more useful on DUB-Malaga, Alicante Tenerife etc? Yes all LHR should be A321, but EI is paying big money on the lease rates for them right now, they are an expensive asset, hence WW playing the game to hammer those costs down. Hear that the new A320's will have 174 seats fitted!!!!:ugh: Not much difference to the current A321 capacity. Why not take out the mid galley, cram up the seats and make it 210 or so? Low Fares are what the punters wanted, and by golly thats what they're getting! Bye Bye Ryanair at DUB ;)

330 to LHR, problem with stand allocation, bussing required to gate 192, could be used for certain busy DUB flights, and free up a slot for long haul out of LHR! :ok: Cannot see the 330 used regularly to Cork/Snn, remember yeild preservation?! However on the other hand 80% load factor is industry standard aim, when flying full aircraft, capacity is too small and 100's of people who would be flying being turned away!!!!

Rumours around of an announcement in June regarding US/Irish Bilateral. I am quietly confident for EI in this regard. The US carriers will most likely drop SNN quicker than EI would, therefore allowing EI to pick up on that traffic providing services where there is sufficient demand, just like the rest of the world outside of the Limerick/Clare twilight zone. Big winners could also be Aer Arran on SNN-DUB.


So, the future might be more A330-200s and some Boeing 777-248ERs?

Yes, the A340-200/300s would be just right for Asia if only the runways were right so it is evident that both Cork and Dublin both now need a little more concrete. About 500 metres for DUB and about 200 metres for Cork would do?


As I said in my previous post, for viable direct Asian/South African services EI would need 777-200ER's or A340-200/300's. The new business plan of low fares leisure travel, would have a lower average yeild gained than say BA First/Club etc out of LHR, hence full bums on seats and cargo required to make the big €€€€'s. In order to do this we are talking big weights, which around 10000ft of runway is required, so DUB needs around another 1500ft or so. This is required especially on those miserable low pressure days, winds from the south and a wet runway!!! As it stands EI would just have to reduce the payload to get the weight off, but would this be profitable? Debatable. Same issue exactly regarding the A330 from Cork to the US. Hang on......FLS might be able to retro-fit some noisy water injectors to give the A330's an extra boost B52 style!!! :ok:

The A340-300/777 might just be too big, whereas the 270 seat capacity of the 332, plus its superb cargo capacity, might be just right. If Airbus can tinker with performance so as to allow a n/s operation of c.6,000nm from Dublin's Runway 10/28, then it will probably get the deal.

The A340-200 has a similar passenger capacity of around 263, but currently would be runway weight limited going to the Far East!! I'm not sure whether Airbus could just simply uprate the engines, and I doubt the A340-300E would provide the improvement required.

Yes, 6000nm in a A330-200 would be possible, but profitable with the blocking off of seats and reduced cargo???

As I said previously, a Dubai cargo run in a A330 would give that Singapore 747F operation a headache, they currently have a huge slice of the Ireland to Far East market, which with the help of Emirates could be tapped into. EK/EI codeshare???

Check out the very good Airbus.com website, aircraft family, performance range charts. Notice the Payload/Range trade off. Taking into account a true dist is around great circle dist + 20%! Also the A330-200 is NOT runway limited at DUB even at Max structural weight.

Yes, EI might be able to get some uprated engine 777's like Kuwait Airways has just got a modification for, to enable Kuwait-JFK in the summer, this might help. I think the A340-200/300 would be even worse take off performance wise at DUB than the 777 unfortunately! :{

With regard to lounges and TAB etc

Why is lounge access strange if it keeps FF's away from CSA etc economy class?
Maybe lounge access will finish at some airports depending on the cost/benfit to EI. Everything is open to change!
My guess is the TAB programme will be like JetBlue's. After all this airline is what WW is trying to copy, minus the PTV's and leather seats of course!

[MarkD]

What's the news on the parallel 10/28? Wasn't that supposed to be a little bit longer? Any timescale?

[akerosid]

I believe 10L/28R is supposed to be 10,000' long. Timeframe was supposed to be 2009, but haven't heard much recently.

As to Aer Lingus, I'm wondering how the 7E7 might fit into its plans. If the airline is planning forward, which it obviously needs to do, then the 7E7 might make an ideal replacement for the 332. From Boeing's point of view, its chances of getting into the EI fleet in any form appear slim, so it might as well play its best cards. If it can arrange interim leases of more 332s until 2009-10 and replace the 333s with 777s, then it might be able to do a deal. The 7E7-900 is about 10-15% smaller in capacity than the 333, so it allows some growth potential from the 332.

Another factor which must come into play is that EI is dependant on US support for an early change in the bilateral to allow more US access. Now, there's obviously no link between buying Boeings and getting increased US access ;) but perhaps a Boeing deal might encourage the US to look more favourably on EI's growth ambitions.

Boeing will obviously be aware of EI's growth ambitions and if it can tailor its fleet offering to EI's needs, then all the better for them.