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SU27
16th Jan 2004, 15:58
Simple question really:

Are we gonna see a pilot shortage in the next two years or have we got some time to go?

I am a wannabe with 140 hours on a PPL. I hear many conflicting views:

"Easyjet are taking on pilots to fly their ever growing fleet of new aeroplanes"

"Aviation is on a downer due to people not wanting to fly"

What are people's opinions on all this????

Also:

If one has £35000 in his pocket is Leeds multiflight a good place to go for CPL/ATPL Training???

A Very Civil Pilot
16th Jan 2004, 16:40
SU27

There has been talk of a pilot shortage ever since I started to fly in '93. It's never turned up.

gomez
16th Jan 2004, 17:24
I read an interesting article in the Readers Digest very recently which was trying to predict future 'growth' jobs and you guessed it, pilots were up there. It was certainly nice to read.

What is perhaps more important are the time scales they were talking about which I believe were medium term future, (i.e 5-10 years). Not all that good for someone like me, (and prob many others here) who feel that have to decide soon whether to jump in or not. When/if I start training, I want to jack the day job in and put in 150% hoping to get myself into a marketable position before I get too old.

Personally, I think that things will be considerably better in about 5 years, hopefully much sooner :-)

Luke SkyToddler
16th Jan 2004, 17:52
It's all absolute b*ll*cks in a nutshell.

It just depends on who the journalist in question has been listening to.

There is no doubt that right now, there is a shortage of highly experienced, type rated, current captains on popular types of modern jets. Especially ones that want to work for peanuts. There is almost always a shortage of those kind of pilots :rolleyes:

There is never ever in a million years going to be a shortage of sub 1000 hour FATPL holders. In fact in all but the most peculiar times, I would estimate there are 5 to 10 times more wannabes than there are entry-level jobs.

The bad thing is that flying school marketing departments twist these dumb media stories to their own ends.

I have been hearing the same old 'pilot shortage' song being sung for as long as I've been flying - well over a decade now - and I have yet to see one :{

Superfly
16th Jan 2004, 20:20
There are currently thousands and thousands of type rated pilots unemployed with thousands of hours each.

RTO, your comment is interesting, however I'd like to know where you get the figures from. Just curious, I'm not going to start contesting arguing it's rubish or anything but I'm somewhat bemused to hear here and there news about expension in the industry. For instance that this No frills arilines is expending its fleet or that Stansted based carier has opened 4 new routes this week. Even Flybe is going to recruit an extra 40 Low-hours pilots. How come not the slightest chance of an interview or sim ride materialize ? I know the odd "it's all down to who you know and not what you know". Is it only due to the fact that I don't have any friend or family who is in the business ? or is it due to the fact that you might be right ? Honestly I now think that the only way in is to gamble on a type rating.... SF

Megaton
16th Jan 2004, 20:27
Hardly representative, I know, but I was out for a beer last night with a fellow ppruner who has recently been hired by a well-respected charter airline with little more than 400 hrs and a multi-IR. He had no contacts with the airline beforehand and although it doesn't prove or disprove either argument it does show that some of these thousands :hmm: of type-rated must be keeping very quiet.

Wee Weasley Welshman
16th Jan 2004, 21:09
My first reaction is always to scoff at pilot shortage claims. There are thousands out there with licenses looking for work and many will never find any.

However, there may well be a slight crunch coming:

a) Ten year average growth in aviation is going to run at an annualised rate of something above 7%. Flying schools are not increasing capacity at that rate or anywhere near it over the last 3 years.

b) A typical Armed Services career for a pilot would last about 16 years. The Berlin Wall fell down in 1989 and the military couldn't stop hiring quickly enough and then didn't hire hardly at all for nearly a decade. Therefore from about 2005 one might expect to see a significant reduction in the numbers of pilots (experienced and talented ones at that) that enter civvy street from Liz's Flying Club.

c) There was a much hyped 'retirement bulge' due for the New Millenium and everyone thought that might provide a pilot hiring boom. Unluckily for Wannabes Sept 11th neatly dovetailed and the crunch never came. However, retirements are going to be quite high for coming years as it was in the 1970's that the Jet package holiday phenomena descended upon the UK. This brought with it a lot of new pilots who now - 30 years on - are in their 50's and keenly working on their golfing handicaps.

d) The industry is going to find it more difficult than it used to in attracting talent. Frankly the job is a lot less well paid and less glamorous than it used to be. Who really wants to work 12hr days on shift work patterns loosing weekends and bank holidays whilst spending lots of time away from home and commuting? Nobody much.

So. Things over the next 5 years may well swing the Wannabes way. Pilots are cheap and there is little more expensive an activity than having multi-million dollar jets sat idle due to a lack of competent hands to operate them. There really was a very brief pilot shortage in 1988/89. There may yet be one again.

But I still wouldn't bet on it.

Cheers

WWW

Snigs
16th Jan 2004, 21:22
Awwwww WWW, ye giveth in one hand and But I still wouldn't bet on it. ye taketh away in the other.

:\

JetSetJim
16th Jan 2004, 21:51
I recently heard an interesting figure of 34% of current UK commercial pilots reaching retirement age by 2007. Can anyone confirm it? That has to be a good thing for all us wannabes surely?

I guess with thousands of unemployed type rated pliots already out there, anyone about to embark on training (myself included) will probably miss the boat!

JSJ

Snoop
16th Jan 2004, 22:04
'recon I will probably reach retirement age before I get a job!!!


:{

Wee Weasley Welshman
16th Jan 2004, 23:36
The CAA figures show that aged between 49 and 59 there are currently 3,028 pilots who hold an ATPL and valid medical certificate.

Assuming they all retire at 60 they represent 28.9% of their community (there are 10,475 ATPLs on the CAAs books - one venerable gentleman being aged 79 with a valid Class One - well done Sir!)

If we say the population of ATPL holders is spread from age 25 to 60 giving a 35 year span then we would expect to see one 35th of 10,475 pilots in each year hypothetically. That would be 299 pilots per year.

Therefore we would expect to see in the next 10 years worth of retirements 2,999 pilots hang up their headsets.

The orginal figure of 3,028 looks remarkably like this - suggesting - alas no bulge.

Cheers

WWW

http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/175/srg_fcl_Age2000StatsProfessional.PDF

Pilot Pete
16th Jan 2004, 23:44
RTO

There are currently thousands and thousands of type rated pilots unemployed with thousands of hours each.

Really? Where? In Scandinavia?

I think the original poster was talking about the UK market (just a guess) and that is certainly not true here. For instance, Britannia were asking for 757/767 type rated pilots all summer long and into autumn. I don't think they got many applicants. DHL are currently looking for type rated 757 pilots, but again aren't getting flooded with such applicants. All those who were deposed after Sept 11th have got jobs again and with the likes of easyJet employing plenty of non-737 type rated pilots that again dispels the theory that there are thousands of type rated pilots desperately trying to get any job they can.

Recruitment has picked up here in the UK over the last year, but the schools have been relentlessly churning out their product and hence the 'pool' is still pretty vast. As others have said, it's experienced pilots that are in relatively short supply, but low hours guys (sorry chaps) are still ten-a-penny. I think 2004 is going to see more recruitment, but the vast majority are still going to find it difficult to get their first break, especially until BA start again, then things may get a little better. The upward trend in air travel is going to continue, but again it's not going to happen overnight, just like the the retirement bulge(s).

The most important thing for a Wannabe is to keep enhancing the CV once they have qualified because if you don't get a job with 250hrs the worst thing possible IMHO is to still have 250hrs 2 years later................

PP

Cruise Alt
17th Jan 2004, 02:27
Ah yes Pete, but does it matter that the recruiting airlines are in Britain? How many UK accents do you hear with an Easy or Ryanair accent?

And how many non French with an Air France?

Snigs
17th Jan 2004, 03:41
Ahhhh RTO,

You've lit the fire, the floor's open now for everyone.

Burn baby burn.....


:yuk:



Sorry just p1ssed off with this kind of tripe.

:hmm:

sqk0612
17th Jan 2004, 05:39
PP- And WHY do you think that Britannia, etc have had few/ no replies for type rated pilots? Because- there are no type rated pilots spare!

Through lack of investment, and penny pinching, airlines today are trying to source their new recruits from other
airlines, instead of taking on quality non-type-rated pilots, and training them onto their stuff through a bond, in the traditional way. You know, Pete, not having a type rating for a Boeing, of any number, or an Airbus, doesn't mean you are low houred.

And many pilots flying lowly, manual twin turbos know a hell of a lot more about coping with emergencies or bad weather than the button pushers in the glass cockpits!

Pilot Pete
17th Jan 2004, 08:22
No PP, In Europe and the UK market will be affected by the european supply of pilots as Cruise Alt points out. The unemployed, type rated pilots in the UK is included in the thousands

I don't dispute where they come from, I would just like to see evidence of the 'thousands', as it certainly doesn't appear to be true here in the UK.

you poorly disguise your intention of earning more money of desperate wannabes with your CV enhancement business.

No-one other than the individual can enhance the total number of hours on their CV. I can't and don't. The point I was trying to make is that many Wannabes who qualified over 12 months ago still don't have any more than the 200 odd that they had then. That I see as a problem for them.

PP- And WHY do you think that Britannia, etc have had few/ no replies for type rated pilots? Because- there are no type rated pilots spare!

I think that is the point I was trying to make.

Through lack of investment, and penny pinching, airlines today are trying to source their new recruits from other airlines, instead of taking on quality non-type-rated pilots, and training them onto their stuff through a bond, in the traditional way.

Yes, it's a trend that has started due to market forces and been done to death on these pages. Britannia, DHL, Monarch through CTC, Loganair, Flybe and the list could go on, have all taken guys on without type ratings and paid for them. It's simply not true to suggest that as a mass generalisation all airlines are employing typre rated pilots only.



You know, Pete, not having a type rating for a Boeing, of any number, or an Airbus, doesn't mean you are low houred.

Nobody here has suggested that it does.


an all ads/rumours for pilots states: dont bother without a rating and in some cases: time on type.

Well, quite often adds, especially websites are not accurate. Indeed Britannia's website has said type rated only since early last year, yet large numbers of non-type rated have been taken on. I don't wish to argue, just point to some facts. My point is that I don't think there are 'thousands' of type rated pilots unemployed in Europe who can't get a job anywhere.

PP

alexb757
17th Jan 2004, 11:16
Maybe the thousands of unemployed are in the USA....?

Each of the 5 major US carriers have on average 2000 furloughed pilots on the street, some are still laying off every few months. And this does not even take into account those where the company went bust and they have absolutely no recall rights.

Conservative estimates are that there are more qualified/type rated/experineced pilots unemployed in the US than the TOTAL pilot population of several EU countries! Last count (not verified) was in excess of 12,000, some of whom have not flown since 9/11.

Europe is a different fish of course but you know what they say about globalization, particualarly in this industry.

It is far worse in the US than you can possibly imagine. From someone who knows only too well....

scroggs
18th Jan 2004, 07:53
There are most certainly many thousands of unemployed type-rated pilots with many hours in the USA. Quite a few with EU connections are making their way over here...

However, my airline's experience suggests that the supply of experienced type-rated pilots in the UK job market is limited. There are some out there, but nowhere near as many as a year ago. That will be reflected throughout the market. Right now, there are still plenty of turboprop, air taxi and freight pilots (some with jet type ratings) who will be the next preferred source of pilots for the airlines, but they won't last forever. I would guess that the return of the 200-hour fATPL 737 co-pilot may be no more than 2 years away for some lucky people. Well, lucky if your only aim in aviation is to get into a jet cockpit, preferably without gaining any valuable experience before you get there!

That said, there are some complications in the equation. The retirement age for jet Captains in the EU will almost certainly be raised to 65 before long, once France, Italy and Portugal have been brought into line. The notion of a compulsory retirement age at all in the EU is coming under pressure from new legislation which may make retirement contingent on medical and skill assessments, rather than age. If that comes to pass, don't expect all those highly-paid guys in their late 50s to pack in when you thought they would! I, for one, will certainly work as long as I can - my kids won't leave university till I'm well over 60, and I'll need the money!

Scroggs

G5wannabe
18th Jan 2004, 09:57
I see most of the replies have been out of UK & Europe in nature. Here in the states it's a mess!

I've been looking for a full-time job for about 1 1/2 years now, and I started when I first heard the "I have 400 hours and I'm flying citations" thingy! Here's my list of blood sweet and tears.
TT:1405 PIC: 1190 Turb: 283 MEL: 331
Instruction: 642

Aircraft Experience:
Fairchild Merlin IIIB- SA226: 48.5 Raytheon/Beech King Air 350: 103.6 King Air A100: 130.8 Raytheon/Beech Baron 55 & 58: 23.5
Other MEL: 24.5 Single Engine: 1031.6 Simulator: 43.2

I can't count the number of times I was tempted to just start writting hours in my logbook. I'm now talking with a guy and I am half tempted to spring the $18,000 USD for a CRJ-700 type. In hopes of something to happen. From my vantage point I see people under me in TT and over me getting the jobs. I'd like to see it end too!:{

M.85
18th Jan 2004, 19:00
Dont worry,Im TALL and SHORT of a job too:\ :ouch:

M.85

Bottle Fatigue
18th Jan 2004, 21:07
I don't have anything to add to the argument about potential shortages of pilots in th EU or US, but I do know this; Airlines are ordering a LOT of regional jets at the moment. More than would be required for replacement of the existing fleets. Most of these are new types from Embraer and Bombardier (ERJ/CRJ).

In addition to this Sukhoi are developing a new regional jet for sale on the international market & hence jumping through the JAA and FAA certification hoops. They wouldn't spend all that money without a reasonable expectation of sales.

Logic dictates that all these new aircraft will require pilots.

Tinstaafl
18th Jan 2004, 22:14
Logic would also dictate that a company would use the pilots from the aircraft that the new types have replaced.

Logic also suggests that if the new type carries more passengers or is faster - allowing more sectors per day - then there is a potential to reduce the number of airframes required in the fleet. That reduces the number of pilots required.

Logic also dictates that if the new type replaces several different types then the number of reserve crews is reduced. That also reduces the total number of pilots the company needs.

Logic continues to dictate that the trend towards utilising maximum permitted flight & duty hours for crew reduces the total number of pilots needed.

Only if there is an increase in the number of airframes required OR possibly in increase in the utilisation of the airframes OR a more limiting regulatory change in FTLs is there an increase in the number of pilots needed.

Dan Winterland
19th Jan 2004, 01:16
No, can't think of any airlines taking non-rated pilots. Except for Britannia, Jet 2, Virgin, DHL, Ryanair, easyJet, Emirates, Qatar, Cathay Pacific, Dragonair etc!

Things are looking up. And don't forget that those schools which survived 9/11 have been running on reduced capacity.

Bottle Fatigue
19th Jan 2004, 04:13
Tinstaafl,

Can you read my post again please?

You'll note that I wrote: "More than would be required for replacement of the existing fleets". In fact most of these orders seem to be for additional aircraft.

As for them being faster - No, not particularly. Carrying more PAX? Actually the trend seems to be for less passengers on regional jets.

The reason that they are attractive is due to the projected operating costs - maintenance intervals, SFC & reliability for example, being better that for the equivalent Airbus or Boeing.

However, I must add one caveat - these aircraft aren't likely to enter service for another 2-4 years.

BF.

Tinstaafl
19th Jan 2004, 04:26
Fair enough, Bottle.

I still stand by my points: Lots of a/c for fleet replacement doesn't necessarily lead to lots of extra jobs.

Bottle Fatigue
19th Jan 2004, 04:50
Agreed.

This (http://www.luchtzak.be/article944.html) isn't a UK carrier, but the article may give some people an interesting insight.

BF

mad_jock
19th Jan 2004, 05:30
Another thing which is cocking things up is the scandi goverments.

If an unemployed scandi pilot comes over to the UK there goverment will pay for the type rating.

Doesn't seem very sporting to me when we have so many high quality pilots available.

MJ

redsnail
19th Jan 2004, 06:01
RTO,
Dragonair have taken quite a few Aussies that don't have type ratings.
Cathay have taken a lot of Aussies with turboprop time only. No jet, let alone heavy jet.
DHL UK are interviewing guys with no type rating, no jet time either. One of the chaps concerned has lots of small turboprop time.
So, it really isn't all doom and gloom.
It's the best I have seen it since Sept 2001.

scroggs
19th Jan 2004, 07:42
RTO you're wrong on almost all counts, I'm afraid. Don't go entirely by what websites say and by secondhand information from friends. As Dan and I have or do work for Virgin, we can tell you that Virgin most specifically does not require pilots to be rated. Neither does Cathay, Dragonair, nor Emirates - though all these airlines require considerable experience. Britannia, Ryanair and easyJet have all been taking pilots unrated on the types flown by these airlines, even though their advertising asks for rated pilots. Qatar has also, though I'm not sure what their line is now. DHL and Jet2 I can't speak of.

But you're right in one aspect - mad_jock is talking rubbish!

Scroggs

coolguy
19th Jan 2004, 07:54
Ctahy interviewed pilots in Aussi and took only 4 guys who had few hundred turbo prop hrs ,

Flypuppy
19th Jan 2004, 19:21
With the advent of aircraft such as the Farnborough F1 (http://www.farnborough-aircraft.com/) this is surely going to create a demand for more pilots. from what I understand this aircraft will be tapping into a currently undeveloped niche market.

The european expansion of low-cost airlines is far from over. The expansion of the EU and former soviet controlled states devloping must surely mean opportunities for airlines to find new business and routes

M.85
19th Jan 2004, 19:35
How many Aussies are there:confused: :confused: :\ :ouch:

M.85

Gearupandorrf
19th Jan 2004, 20:39
G'day M.85,
Here's another Aussie!

You may not realise why there are so many of us here?

Well, I've been living in the UK now for 9 weeks, and have come from Melbourne. Did all of my training via the modular route from 1999 'till 2001, and had been in Melbourne ever since scrimping and saving to be able to afford to move here.

Like many Aussies, my chances of ever getting a job on a jet at home are questionable (at best). This has gotten better (a bit) with the arrival of Virgin Blue on the scene. In fact, even getting a gig on a Dash 8 or a Brasillia is tough work because of the sheer size of the competition. People who have got those jobs already have 1000-3000 hours and have "taken it with the rough end of the pineapple" for years in GA, flying dodgy single engine types on minimum wage and being asked (made) to work in very questionable conditions.

I've been registered on Proon for a while now, and over the years I've seen the most incredibly ignorant attitudes in regards to Turboprop work. Back home, it is a major acheivement to get onto a Dash 8, F27, Saab 340 etc. Sure, the competition is tough here at the moment but it's a land of opportunity. I'll gladly take one of your Turboprop jobs with my 300 hrs! Not only that, but I'll do it anytime, day or night, and will just be happy to cover my basic living expenses. Get excited about the fact that you have dozens of jet operators to forward your CV to.

And, most of all, don't just wait for a Pilot shortage to happen. There is a trickle of jobs out there, and some low hours people are being considered (Turboprop). Do ALL that you can to be considered. For me, this includes keeping the IR and Medical current, reviewing info from the ATPL's on a reguar basis, undertaking some aptitude testing so that you KNOW what to expect at interviews, undertake some training in CV and Interview technique, and the MOST IMPORTANT:

NETWORK, NETWORK AND NETWORK SOME MORE!!

In a sea of 300 hr. CPL/IR's, we all look the same unless we have some sort of personal connection with the Chief Pilot/ Fleet Manager. Once a foot's in the door at that personal level, it's then just a matter of "cultivating" that friendship over the phone/email etc. If you can swing it and your working situation allows it, get out in the car with your suit and tie on and some CV's under your arm, and trawl the country for face-to -face meetings. A Turpoprop fleet manager would be chuffed that you took the time to drive from Manchester to Exeter just to present your face! Of course, find the balance where you are being "keen" and not a "pest".

As I said, low hours peolple are getting jobs. But these people have done ALL that they can to be prepared , and have given themselves every chance. Don't leave any stone unturned.

The clincher for me to forget about a career (for the time being) in Oz was back in 1997. I was jumpseating Melbourne- Brisbane in a Qantas 737 and having a chat with the Captain in regards to what I wanted to do with my flying career. I said that one day I'd love to fly for Qantas. His response to me was that at 23, I was too old to have any sort of chance of getting into an Airline in Oz!! At the time I had already completed some of my CPL training.

So boys and girls, be thankfull that you live in a part of the world where the dream is possible. Be thankfull that you can fy something decent without having to live in incredibly remote places just to fly a Cessna 210.

Go out there and make it happen. Todays friendly contact is tommorows head start when jobs re-appear.

Best of luck to all,
Gearup.
Oh yeah, and M.85, chuck us another shrimp on the barbie willya?

M.85
19th Jan 2004, 20:55
you get me a barbie AND a barbecue..ill be getting you all the shrimps youd like:p
Seriously,I know about Australia,one of my very good friends is a capt on 737 in england and hes an aussie!
I have nothing against you guys coming hre..not at all..it was just a question to see how many aussies are actually in this aviation market..seems a lot compare to here.
About getting a job i do agree with you.However the grass is not always greener and im also looking for anything to put my hands on..C172 will do ..JAA ATPL over 2500 hours multi turbine here.

Good luck!

About the shrimps im serious:E

Safe Braaing,

M.85

Gearupandorrf
19th Jan 2004, 22:15
Yeah M.85,
I know exactly what you mean about the grass not always been greener!

As I said, I've only been here 9 weeks and already there are apects in the way that this country that completely astound me! Especially in the public health and banking sectors! The cocept that you can't go and see any other GP other than the one that you registered with- even if your'e unwell and there are no appointments available!?!?!?!

Mate just so that you know, in Australian vernacular, "Barbie" can mean the Barbeque itself, or it can also refer to the act of having a Barbecue.
ie: put another shrimp on the Barbie OR;
It's a great night for a Barbie.

Now you can regale your friends with some of your new- found Aussie lingo!!

Seriously though, the reason why you'll find such a concentration of Aussies in the UK (as opposed to the Continent) has got to do with the VISA requirements. For example, my Wife's family is from Northern Ireland (UK) so she has the "Right of Abode" for the UK. My Visa is as a "Settlement" Visa, which means that normally I wouldn't have the right to work in the UK, however I am settling here with my Wife and so I can. HOWEVER, this Visa is valid for the UK, and not the rest of the EU unfortunately.

You will fing that almost all Aussies over here are in a similar situation.

Best Reards,
Gearup!

Tinstaafl
20th Jan 2004, 03:13
Don't need a visa. Got two passports. :ok: :E

Dan Winterland
20th Jan 2004, 03:47
RTO. OK, lets elaborate:

Britannia: ask for type rated pilots but there aren't many. So they emply non - type rated pilots. A friend of mine has recently started a B757 course with only a few hundred hours and nothing heavier than a Seneca in his logbook.

Jet 2: Again, ask for type ratings but are taking pilots without. Two friends of mine have just joined without ratings - directly into the LHS!

Virgin: Not requiring type ratings. Didn't when I joined, still don't. Two of my non-type rated mates are about to start their A340 courses.

DHL: Would like type rated people - like most. However, there aren't many. Don't personally know anyone who joined, but have heard stories of those who have joined without ratings.

Ryanair: No type ratings - but even if you have to pay for one - you still don't have to have one to join.

Easyjet: Ditto. However, if you have enough experience, they don't require you to pay. Three mates joined in this category. Two had commands within a year.

Emirates: Lots of my mates went there. None with A330 or B777 ratings. OK, you have to have a number of hours and glass jet time - but no rating.

Cathay Pacific: Where do I start? Quite a few mates joined - no ratings. They do have a huge amount of applicants to chose from which may be why you haven't heard from them.

Dragonair: Your info about this company is way off - it's my company! I was neither a type rated captain or from HK. Min 4000 hours though.

Qatar: Would like type ratings - that's why they ask. However, I refer you to the case of another mate who joined with no type rating.

Are you perhaps confusing a lack of a rating with lack of experience?

Scroggs - thanks for the support.

PS - I've thought of two more. NetJets (no ratings required) and Singapore Cargo (preference to rated pilots, but not required).

PPS - I just re-read your first post. You appear to have 140 hours and a PPL. Unless you are applying for a cadetship, you won't get a reply from anyone until you meet the company's recruitment criteria.

Tosh McCaber
20th Jan 2004, 04:51
I think that when you get to a certain amount of RHS experience (1000- 2000 hrs or more), the type rating requirement becomes less of a requiement from the airlines. Unfortunately, it's the poor low hour suckers who have the worst of all worlds!

Catch 22- no job with low hours- and without a job very limited means of building hours- or pay for a type rating and hope.

jammers
20th Jan 2004, 05:46
Fair Dinkum there Bruce.........................................

M.85
20th Jan 2004, 17:30
Gear up.
I am aware of the reciprocals between New Zealand ,Australia and the UK.
Concerning the barbie..i did understand the concept!i doubt youd fry shrimps on a real barbie:p
Therefore i showed you how south africans call your barbie..a BRAAI.
Its amazing how much one can learn on PPrune:D

All the best to you,by logging onto pprune you did a great step to get info...I wish i had known about it earlier..

M.85

McCroskey
20th Jan 2004, 18:53
Just want to get back to what WWW said at the beginning of this thread about the number of predicted retirements in the coming years, does anyone know the number of new CPL / fATPL which are being issued each year because if its more than the number of retirements then thats not good news for all us low hours guys.

scroggs
20th Jan 2004, 19:51
The number of retirements in UK airlines is likely to be less than a hundred per year. The number of licences issued is well into the hundreds, and has been for many years. You are, as always, relying on airline expansion for new jobs.

Scroggs

SLT
20th Jan 2004, 22:55
The problem is, it's all very well for airlines to say that there are no type-rated pilots available, but I know of more than one airline where type-rated and experienced friends of mine have applied, and they haven't even had an acknowledgement to their application, while non-type-rated guys have beeen hired. Now, you could say that maybe the airline has looked at the application and deemed the guy unsuitable for whatever reason, but I know in one particular carrier that that is not the case. It seems that quite often, the sheer volume of applications means that a lot quite simply get lost at the bottom of the pile. Luck of the draw I guess! But it's wrong for airlines to complain about the lack of type-rated guys - there are plenty out there who are willing to move, but airline recruitment departments are so over-worked and under-staffed that it's difficult for them to get a foot in the door.

scroggs
22nd Jan 2004, 13:41
SLT you're absolutely right. The numbers of applications to most airlines are huge! It's not really surprising that some CVs are lost - especially when you're at the mercy of some spectacularly inefficient postal and administration departments! That makes it all the more important that you direct your CV to exactly the right person. You (RTO) also have to be appropriately qualified for the airlines you apply to!

Scroggs

SLT
23rd Jan 2004, 17:50
RTO, I'm not being funny, but the fact is that a type-rating is a huge advantage as far as being hired is concerned. Airlines don't want to spend needless money on type-rating someone when they don't have to. After all, there is no guarantee that someone will pass the type-rating anyway, no matter how experienced they are - and that's just wasted precious time and money. Type-ratings are expensive, and companies are watching their budgets very carefully in the current climate. If they can get type-rated people, and their face fits, then they'll take them over non-rated - that's just the way life is.

As an aside - I do sympathise with you - I applied to Virgin about 6 months ago via the website, and haven't heard anything. I don't have a 340 or 744 rating, but I do have a lot of 330 hours. I guess my application is at the bottom of that pile we talked about!! I haven't sent repeated updates, because they say not to, so all I can do is wait! That's life I guess!!!!!

Safe flying chaps!!

Wee Weasley Welshman
24th Jan 2004, 09:10
I'm not sure that a type rating *is* such an advantage these days. I hear talk that Ryanair actually don't want experienced or type rated people. They would prefer to take someone who pays for their own rating, on a training contract, who then enters the airline (if they pass) on a much reduced salary for a number of years, with not enough time to get into the right hand seat for a while.

In such rapidly expanding airlines there are large numbers of FOs close to command hours who kick up a terrible fuss about hiring new people direct to the LHS or close to it. Hence its less strife to get cadets in.

Such cadets can be signed up in such a fashion that they actually DO pay for their training either out of their own pocket up front or via reduced salaries for - say - 7 years.

You keep your current FO's happy, you get to train cadets in your way and your way only, they pay for it, they are effectively bonded for a long time for doing it and you can send them anywhere in the empire at your whim. Much better than recruiting in experienced crews who have flown elsewhere and want x base on y type with z months to command assesment.

Once you have a large training department - largely outsourced and sub contracted - who run 364 days a year then its not such a big, difficult or distracting business to chuck a few more cadet courses into the sims.

Its certainly a funny old game,

Cheers

WWW

scroggs
25th Jan 2004, 04:44
RTO apologies, I read Dan's post and assumed his '140 hours and a PPL' comment referred to you; obviously I was wrong.

By 'appropriately qualified' I really mean that you apply to an airline fulfilling their likely requirements. It has been true in recent years that, unless you were very experienced, you probably benefitted from a rating on your target airline's type. That is unless you were totally inexperienced, and therefore qualified for some kind of sponsorship deal. As airlines begin to recruit again, type ratings are no longer the prerequisite that they once were - though they're unlikely to disqualify you!

Many airlines, as Dan pointed out, may advertise certain requirements, but the grapevine will suggest that those requirements are a moveable feast depending on how desperate that airline is for the pilots it needs. Above a certain experience level, and when applying for the larger longhaul airlines, a type-rating on that airline's aircraft has always been largely irrelevent; you will be rated when you undergo that airline's training.

So, when you see airline A's advert for 757-rated pilots, yet you know that that airline has a JAA-approved course on that type available, it's a fair bet that they will be prepared to rate those who they really want to employ, especially as the supply of rated pilots reduces.

As for SLT, perhaps you could PM me your story? I may be able to find out what's happened to your application.

Scroggs

Chinos
26th Jan 2004, 10:12
Since 1990 I have been watching for this myth called "pilot shortage"..

Now one thing has become clear and that is that pilots never get called for by the media to give their outlook on the future (and FALPA etc dont represent the "real" marketplace out there in my humble view).
Not even your airline asks you for your opinion, so why should the media?

Where does this lead to? Clearly any industry leader who gets asked will encourage sytem to produce as many pilots as possible, so that they can influence the one major variable cost- wages. No CEO wants pilots in a position of power- we are to be numerous and too busy working to apply any leverage.

Folks, I like to be an optimist, but my advice is: Don't hold your breath for this major shortage, sorry. Be realistic and be prepared to rough it for a while, be inventive and dont be shy to work hard for little money before you get to the honey pot (which is getting smaller and smaller as I write)..
Good luck to all!
:cool:

Lee Erskine
2nd Feb 2004, 06:05
It isnt likely that there will be a pilot shortage any time soon, as here in new zealand, last year there were 400 qualified pilots graduate now looking for jobs. it will be about the same for a long time. Here we can apply for a student loan from the government to do our training.

Wheelon-Wheeloff.
10th Feb 2004, 04:01
To add to the list of companies not requiring a type rating I can add Loganair. Although "only" a T/prop operator I'm pretty sure no <1000 hour guys would mind buzzing around in a Saab 340!!

We've taken on so many new FO's in the last 6 months its hard to remember all the names and faces!! Add to that a fair few RHS promotions and many leaving for Easy and NetJets all with only 340 experience were seeing a good amount of movement.

I accept that we are only a fairly small company and this does not mean there is pilot shortage but there is a significantly different air about the place compared to post 9/11.

We still do get a huge mountain of CV's though with some being chucked if spelling is wrong! (espiecally if it's the FTM's name!!)

Best of Luck to all still looking

WW

scroggs
10th Feb 2004, 18:30
Good info, WW, thank you. I imagine that Logan will now be deluged with applications from Pprune Wannabes! :cool:

Scroggs