Cosmic Radiation & Flight Crew (merged)

[Airbubba]

I was over the pond a few days ago after another CME, signals were weak but noise levels were low so no problem with Shanwick and Gander.
_________________________________________


Solar Flares Cut Airplane Radio Contact

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Published: October 29, 2003

Filed at 7:48 p.m. ET

TORONTO (AP) -- Airplanes flying north of the 57th parallel experienced some disruptions in high frequency radio communications Wednesday due to the geomagnetic storm from solar flares.

Louis Garneau, spokesman for the company that handles Canada's civil aviation navigation service, described the disruptions as an ``inconvenience'' for air traffic controllers at Canadian stations that handle an average of 300 northern flights daily.

``The solar flares are causing some disruption on our high frequency voice-radio communications,'' he said.

Flights that go north of latitude 57 degrees, which runs from northern Scotland across Hudson Bay to the lower tip of Alaska and across Russia, were required to stay on specific routes Wednesday, Garneau said. Those flights include commercial jets crossing the North Atlantic and transport planes flying over the Arctic.

By prohibiting route changes, such as altitude shifts to deal with high winds, air traffic controllers can pinpoint a specific plane's location more easily, Garneau said.

``It reduces the complexity of the airspace,'' he said. ``We're not stopping any traffic movement, we're just restricting the routes taken by aircraft so we can ensure we have a better estimate of their position.''

High frequency, or HF, communications involve the radio contact between planes that are out of radar range or very high frequency -- VHF -- range. That generally applies to planes crossing oceans or flying over vast undeveloped regions such as the Arctic. On approaching airports, the planes have radar and VHF contact.

Planes also have satellite tracking devices and emergency VHF communications to make contact in the event of a problem, Garneau said.

Even if the solar flares knocked out all satellite and HF radio contact, he said, it was likely a troubled plane could make VHF contact with another aircraft or military monitoring station.


___________________________________

From www.spaceweather.com:

STORM IN PROGRESS: A severe geomagnetic storm is in progress. Sky watchers at all latitudes should be alert for auroras after local nightfall. (Auroras are visible right now over Ireland and England.) Meanwhile, another powerful solar flare (X11-class) has erupted from giant sunspot 486 at 2049 UT on Oct. 29th. The blast hurled a coronal mass ejection toward Earth, which could excite more auroras when it arrives on or about Halloween.

[Clipper811]

ZCZC SWXALTPAV
TTAA00 KWNP 292128

Space Weather Message Code: ALTPAV
Serial Number: 862
Issue Time: 2003 Oct 29 2128 UTC

UPDATE ALERT: Altitude Update for Solar Radiation Alert
Alert Conditions Began: 2003 Oct 29 2105 UTC

Comment:
A solar proton event in progress may lead to excessive radiation doses to air travelers at Corrected Geomagnetic Latitudes above 35 degrees north or south.

See map at http://www.cami.jccbi.gov/radiation.html

See article at http://www.usatoday.com/weather/news/2003-10-29-solar-storm_x.htm

Current recommended maximum flight altitude: 25 000 feet.

Solar radiation
Altitude effective dose rate
(feet) (millisieverts/hour) *
-------------------------------
20 000 >0.0049
30 000 >0.023
40 000 >0.062
50 000 >0.11
60 000 >0.17
70 000 >0.25
80 000 >0.36
-------------------------------

* Estimates for high-latitude locations. Dose rates are based on near real-time GOES satellite measurements and are recalculated every three minutes.

More information at http://www.cami.jccbi.gov/radiation.html
25 000 feet

[A/P Disc]

:uhoh:

And naturally all the airlines are keeping
their a/c at low altitudes. Not!

Money comes first and they don't care about the
occupants. I'm going to be an accountant. Much safer.
(unless you did the Enron audit).

Rgds

[snooky]

Since airlines know about this and are not prepared to prevent their customers and staff from the known hazard, they may pay the price in a few years time when someone claims compensation for the result of their unnecessary exposure, be it a passenger or a crew member.

An interesting article about this can be found HERE (http://www.hps.org/publicinformation/ate/q444.html) .

Imagine the publicity coup available to any airline actually flying lower for the relatively short duration of such storms. "We take more care of you" perhaps!

[flyblue]

Powerful solar flare collides with earth
By Christine Hauser/NYT (NYT)
Thursday, October 30, 2003


A powerful blast of gas from the sun has hit the earth's magnetic field, affecting power grids and airplane radio communications but posing no danger to air travel, experts said Wednesday.

"We got the real McCoy today," said the chief of space weather operations at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Joe Kunches. "The eruption from the sun yesterday just squared up with the earth and it has caused the Earth's magnetic field to become extremely disturbed."

On Tuesday, the third-most powerful solar flare ever observed in X-ray wavelengths erupted from a spot on the sun, propelling electrically charged gas at the Earth, said scientists with the National Aeronautic and Space Administration, and the European Space Agency.

Kunches said the space-weather storm was the strongest since July 14, 2000. "This is a big deal," he said.

For a brief period early Wednesday Eastern time, gusts in the solar wind as it blew by the Earth caused a geomagnetic storm of G-5 magnitude on the NOAA Space Weather Scales, a systemized measuring index, like the Richter scale for earthquakes. G-5 is the highest category.

But Kunches said the storm had since weakened from the G-5 level, which meant it was capable of degrading satellite and high-frequency radio communications as well as causing power blackouts.

A radiation storm Wednesday morning strong enough to expose people on aircraft in high latitudes to elevated radiation also tapered off.

Scientists have been monitoring unusually fierce eruptions from the Sun since last week and have stayed in contact with power-grid operators in the Northeast United States to inform them of the potential for disturbances.

"They have told us they are seeing induced currents in their power grids, but they are able to work their way through them," Kunches said. "They are running their power systems in a much more conservative fashion that is not nearly as profitable but more resilient."

He said the agency had also discussed the solar storms with radio communications operators working with aircraft. "We know there have been difficult conditions at times over the North Atlantic," Kunches said. "They can't use the frequencies that they normally use."

This means that as some of the frequency paths become disrupted, the aircraft must switch to others. For passengers, it could mean only enduring a bumpy ride for a little longer if there is turbulence.

An official with the high-frequency radio provider to the Federal Aviation Administration said that the normal radio path for aircraft is impaired, but that there is access to other channels.

Gaffney said it usually took three minutes to deliver messages between the aircraft and the FAA, but over the last day or so, a few had run over three minutes.

The New York Times

[Findo]

Nice show of the Northern lights last night and another expected after 2300 tonight. Another solar flare detected yesterday with resulting arrival of X,Y and Z rays in the next 36 hours (in non technical speak)


You don't think the world is going to end with 57 days until Christmas just when I started my shopping early for once ?? :eek: :eek: :(

[Golden Rivet]

interesting topic - how does this affect power grids ?

[birdofprey]

How does this also affect the on-board computers? Isnt high energy radiation more likely to upset them than the passengers?

[Capt H Peacock]

I was on the ground for this one, but the storm in 2001 produced some of the most spectacular auroras I’ve seen. Strangely enough during that one we couldn’t HF to Gander for peanuts, but VHF worked out to 40W.

The power grid phenomenon also affects pipelines etc, and indeed any conducting circuits. The disturbance to the Earths magnetic field, which can cause 10 deg heading changes in compasses, also induces powerful currents in conductors. On a large grid, these currents can either add to or counter the current flowing in the wires which if they exceed the design current will trip the protection. In pipelines, the current might cause arcing, which has obvious implications for petrochemical installations.

I’m always amazed by Mother nature, and her ability to cause Man to be humbled when he doesn’t understand her.:cool:

[Findo]

I'm going outside to look .................. I may be sometime :eek:

[Daysleeper]

fantastic aurora , bright red band and several green lines on a white background. Visible from overhead dutch/german border at 25,000 feet bout an hour ago.

[slsman]

Intense pink display seen in the east just after sunset in Toronto. Reduced in intensity and moved west over a 45 min period. Keep an eye on the sky, it's a beautiful sight if you are so lucky to catch one!

[JOSHUA]

Just back from flying to Glasgow at 20000ft, my first real sight of the aurora, a red glow above and to the north with green and white bands, beautiful and most humbling...........

[nec]

Question...I felt so sad Wednesday..is it possible the storm affects your emotions and/or electrical circuits/hormones? I was on the verge of tears the whole day. Weird. Had no idea why i felt so weepy and sad..Felt fine the next day..anyone else feel sad?

[squeaker]

I did want to cruise at lower levels yesterday, but prevented by turbulence. Fantastic show with the aurora last night, best I've ever seen, going past NTS about 2100Z, most impressive. Glad I've had my kids though, don't want any coming out with two heads!

[lurkio]

FL320 over Asturias (N. Spain) last night about 00Z the display was really nice, reds and whites. Lasted about 45 minutes. Nice to be able to see it without going over Greenland.

[brockenspectre]

and ... did anyone have a camera with them? if not .. please do try and remember if you are flying before the end of the current series! It would be great for us land-bound folks to see aerial shots of auroras (aurorae?) for a change!

Well .. what I mean is I would like to see some aerial pics of them :ok: :)

[alosaurus]

BS - Tried to take a photo with my digital camera but it was just a mass of ionised clutter....time to descend.

Going to Oslo tomorrow.....full tanks...and will have a closer look at the oil rigs.

[FlareArmed2]

Clipper 811, where did you get that CAMI alert from? I have checked the page you gave and canot find it.

[Clipper811]

FlareArmed2,
The message was issued to crews during flight planning. Msg contents confirmed by company. Latest msg issued was "ops normal" with assurances that further disturbances would be monitored "appropriately." Here is a link from USAToday that mentions FL250, regarding the disturbance.
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/news/2003-10-29-new-flare_x.htm

[jrbt]

Daysleeper, are you saying the aurora itself was located at an altitude of 25,000 feet, or that you were flying at that altitude at the time you observed it far above you? If the former, could you go to the other thread, in Questions, "Have you ever seen aurora below or 'around' your aircraft", and report and submit the questionnaire - trying to systematically gather reports of such low-altitude aurora because it's supposed to be impossible!

[Daysleeper]

Nah we were flying at FL250, the Aurora was way off in the night sky.

[Findo]

Look out tomorrow - :cool:


The X8.3 solar flare from Region 486 has been confirmed as a halo
coronal mass ejection (perhaps a borderline partial halo event). This means that mass ejected from the region contains an Earthward-directed component.

That component is expected to impact the Earth on 03 or 04 November, but with heaviest emphasis on the early UTC hours of 04 November. For North American observers, this translates to the evening (probably late evening) hours on MONDAY NIGHT, Eastern Standard Time.

A middle latitude auroral activity WATCH has been issued for the 03 to 06 November time-frame with heaviest empahsis on 04 November. It is appended below.

Although this event has the potential to be perhaps as strong as the Great Storm of 29 and 30 October, we do not believe it will. Nevertheless, the chance for periods of significant auroral activity exists for 03 through 06 November (again, with emphasis on 04 November).

[Memetic]

From http://www.sec.noaa.gov/advisories/bulletins.html

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY BULLETIN #03- 5
2003 November 04 at 05:25 p.m. MST (2003 November 05 0025 UTC)

**** EXTREME SOLAR FLARE ****

Powerful Active Region 486 has produced one of the most intense solar flares ever measured. The event began at 12:29 P.M. MST (1929 UTC) on November 4th and rose quickly to exceed X17 on the GOES-12 X-ray sensor. By 12:44 P.M. MST (1944 UTC), the GOES sensor was saturated and remained that way until 12:56 P.M. (1956 UTC), suggesting this event extended well in to the very highest flare category, the X20 plus range. This massive flare produced a category R5 (extreme) radio blackout. All short-wave communications through the sunlit hemisphere of the Earth experienced complete blackout conditions.
An associated solar radiation storm is underway. The current storm is at category S1 (minor) levels, and rising. The radiation storm is expected to reach category S2 (moderate) levels, and there is a small chance for a category S3 (strong) radiation storm. High latitude aviation interests are advised to closely monitor radiation levels over the next 24 hours. High latitude short-wave communications will likely experience considerable degradation for the next 24 to 48 hours. All agencies with space interests should also carefully monitor radiation levels.

A powerful, and extremely fast (over 5 million miles per hour) mass ejection occurred from this flare site, but is mostly directed away from Earth. As a result, only category G1 (minor) to G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on November 6th.

This solar flare was the largest in a series of very large flares that have occurred in Active Region 486 over the past two weeks. At its peak, this sunspot cluster was approximately 15 times larger than Earth. This active region will rotate to the backside of the sun over the next 24 hours. Another large flare is still possible from this region, but large flare activity will become much less likely after the next 24 to 48 hours.

[refplus20]

Pilots fly low to curb radiation

Dipesh Gadher, Transport Correspondent, Sunday Times

BRITISH AIRWAYS pilots are rejecting the airline’s flight plans and flying at lower altitudes amid concerns over health risks to passengers and crew from cosmic radiation.
The pilots believe airlines are understating the potential dangers to the public of exposure to cosmic rays to save money on fuel. Planes flying at higher altitudes travel faster and burn less kerosene, but they also encounter higher radiation levels.

The fears come in the wake of scientific research which suggests that aircrew and frequent flyers are more likely to get cancer than others. It also follows claims that airlines failed to warn passengers about the risks of deep-vein thrombosis (DVT).

The issue has been brought to a head by the recent solar storm, which has led to unusually high levels of radioactive particles bombarding the Earth. In America, the Federal Aviation Administration, the industry’s regulatory body, initially went as far as advising pilots to reduce flying their height on certain routes.

The British authorities felt it unnecessary to issue similar guidance since the onset of the solar storm almost two weeks ago, but The Sunday Times has learnt that some pilots at BA and other airlines have taken matters into their own hands.

“I refused a flight plan from North America (to London) because it would have taken me to 35,000ft to take advantage of a strong jet stream,” said the captain of a Boeing 747. “I stayed below 30,000ft all the way. The flight took half an hour longer, but I didn’t get my hair singed. And I know from speaking to other pilots at other airlines that some are adopting the same approach.”

The pilot added: “This isn’t just a problem during times of excessive solar activity and this is a good time to ensure people know what they’re getting into when they fly. Airlines knew about DVT for years, but were belatedly forced to confront it because of the publicity.”

Flight plans, often based on weather forecasts, are drawn up by airline ground staff and passed on to pilots and air traffic controllers in advance. However, pilots carry sole legal responsibility for flights and are within their rights to refuse the plans or amend them.

Another Boeing 747 captain pointed out that some frequent flyers might be at even greater risk from exposure to radiation than pilots because the pilots are legally barred from flying more than 900 hours a year.

Cosmic radiation is the collective name for radiation from the sun and the wider universe. It is characterised by energetic particles which can disrupt molecules in living cells. The atmosphere acts as a natural shield, but the higher one flies the thinner the atmosphere becomes, affording less protection.

The effects of cosmic radiation are also more prevalent at the northern and southern poles, where the Earth’s magnetic field is less effective in deflecting particles. This makes long-haul flights across the Arctic to Japan, for example, far more hazardous.

Passengers flying at 35,000ft are exposed to between 50 and 100 times more radiation than a person on the ground, according to the National Radiological Protection Board (NRPB). A transatlantic flight is equivalent to receiving at least one chest x-ray.

“There is no proven link between cancer in flight crews and cosmic radiation,” said Dr Michael Clark of the NRPB. “But that doesn’t mean one shouldn’t take sensible precautions to minimise its impact.”

Last month researchers in Iceland claimed female flight attendants who worked for five or more years before 1971 were five times more likely to develop breast cancer than those with less experience.

Dr Bob Bentley of the Mullard Space Science Laboratory, University College, London, which is leading a three-year study into the impact of cosmic radiation, said: “There are concerns, particularly in the higher latitudes and especially during particle events such as the one we have seen recently.”

A spokesman for BA denied claims that pilots were encouraged to fly at higher altitudes to save fuel: “We take our duty of care to both passengers and flight crew very seriously and we would never fly our aircraft if there was a potential health risk. We measure exposure to cosmic radiation in all our flight and cabin crew to ensure that they do not exceed safe levels, and, at this point, all the evidence suggests that passengers are not at risk from its effects.”


:ooh: :ooh:

[steamchicken]

"Flight plans, often based on weather forecasts".....as opposed to being occasionally based on the 2.30 at Newmarket I suppose..

[Ghostboy]

According to the Sunday Times a transatlantic flight is the equivalent of receiving a chest X-ray AND BA captains are rejecting flight plan levels and flying lower to the avoid cosmic radiation.:ooh:

They have quoted a 747 skipper as saying "I stayed below 30000 ft all the way, the flight took half an hour longer but I didn't get my hair singed."

I find this hard to believe. Is this journo rubbish or what?

Ghost

[BigHitDH]

From: http://cf.alpa.org/internet/alp/2000/janinflight.htm


"At the present stage of the solar cycle, the galactic dose ranges from 0.023 to 0.80 millisievert per 100 block hours. For example, based on 0.60 mSv per 100 block hours (the mean for a flight between New York City and Athens, Greece), a pilot flying 700 block hours per year would receive an annual occupational exposure of 4.2 mSv. In contrast, a pilot flying 700 block hours on a Chicago-to-San Francisco route (0.41 mSv/100 block hours) would receive an annual dose of approximately 2.8 mSv.

Typically, cosmic radiation exposure for airline pilots in North America ranges from 3 to 5 millisieverts annually. These values are considerably lower than the occupational limit of 20 millisieverts per year (5-year average) that the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommends for a nonpregnant adult."

So, sounds like trash to me...

[maxy101]

Depends BigDH....If you are in the wrong aircraft at the wrong time at the peak of the solar cycle, in the vicinity of a coronal mass ejection (such as that has just reached the earth) you could get around 100 times your annual dose in one flight. Sounds nasty to me. What concerns me is that Big Airways flight planning department had no idea of this event, and yet under European law , it is a requirement for them to monitor each crew members annual radiation exposure AND act on such warnings. Sounds like Big company syndrome to me.

[Cathar]

I understand that the advice from the boffins is that it appears that the current coronal mass ejections do not have a large high-energy component and they are therefore unlikely to be a particular hazard aircraft crew. In addition they may also be contributing to reduction in galactic cosmic radiation through the magnetic field associated with the enhanced solar wind which may lead to decreased average doses for some flights.

[Taking Over, Nigel]

Thanks p1fel
Most interesting.

I strongly suspect that airlines do NOT want us to know about solar storm activity because it would cost them more fuel.....
I have on a number of occasions asked our flight planners about such activity and they plead complete ignorance of both flare activity and it's effect on us... yet when it suits them they do seem to know about HF disturbances from flares....????

[jed_thrust]

So, my question is this: What altitude are all these measurments and exposures based on?

Jed_thrust, what a silly question! Aircraft altitude, of course!

Measured how? I know my altimeter (on 1013) can read significantly lower than my GPS-derived altitude: I have seen it as much as 7000' different when trudging across the Pacific.

Seeing how 4000' can (roughly) double your radiation exposure, it might make a big difference to the annual total.

Does any bright spark have any sensible offers?:cool: