Pilot Shortage looms for NZ

[Sqwark2000]

Sunday Star Times - Sun 14th Sept

Taxpayer lands the bill as pilots thin on the ground
14 September 2003
By RACHEL GRUNWELL

Taxpayers face the possibility of another Air New Zealand bailout as the aviation industry faces chaos over the looming retirement of the baby boom generation.


Employment Minister Steve Maharey has recevied a report from the Aviation Industry Association which shows large gaps appearing in the number of qualified commercial pilots in New Zealand.

There were 1.125 million babies born in New Zealand between 1946 and 1965 - who are now heading towards retirement, raising fears of a shortage of experienced pilots as well as a national work force shortage.

The association's review also reveals the industry is being hit by overseas companies poaching our qualified pilots.

It is understood Cathay Pacific alone recruited 20 Kiwi pilots last year.

The association met Maharey last week to discuss how many pilots need to be trained to meet industry requirements in the future.

Maharey will prepare a cabinet report based on the association's findings on September 29 so the government can then decide how much taxpayers' money should be used to train pilots.

"Taxpayers have some responsibility, but the industry has to pay as well," said Maharey, who was briefed on Friday on the association's findings.

The association's review was spurred by the government's proposal in May, which included capping the amount students allowed to borrow under the loan scheme to around $6500. This would particularly affect trainee pilots because it costs about $60,000 to learn to fly.

The government wants to reign in large student loans - particularly for aviation students. The 10 biggest individual student loans paid out last year went to aviation students, with one receiving almost $140,000.

Talk of capping trainee pilots' cashflow meant the association had to look at how many pilots it needs in training to meet growing industry requirements.

Irene King, chairwoman of the assoication's transport division who has been working on the review, said up to 800 people learn to fly each year and it appeared this number of students could need to continue to be trained each year to meet industry demands.

"The government is saying they will only fund X amount of pilots to undergo training. But the review looks like it will say they will have to pump in this money and crank through 700-800 pilots a year to be able to fulfill the needs of the jet operations,"said King.

Air New Zealand employs about 1000 pilots and there are about 3500 in the industry - a big proportion of which are from the baby boom era.

The review surveyed 1241 pilots, 300 of which were aged 51 years and over. In the next age group 41-50-years, there were 435 pilots; 382 pilots were aged 31-40 years; 127 in 21-30 years; and seven pilots aged under 20.

King said it took six to 10 years to train a pilot for jet operations.

[Blue Line]

Pilot shortage????
I'll believe when I see it !!!!
Just means that people won't need 3000 hours or so to go SO in a 744

[splatgothebugs]

Sounds like the same bollocks story I heard when I started in 97, however I'am interested to see where 700-800 pilots a year are going to work when there is not even that many domestic postions in NZ.

Makes interesting reading though, thanks for posting it S2K. :)

[troppo]

oooh pilot shortage....supply and demand dictates that
you can all have a payrise when it eventuates!

140k??????? somebody saw that sucker coming...

thats almost as criminal as paying a solo mum 300 bucks a week to sit at home:}

[Cypher]

How the hell do you justify putting through 700-800 student pilots a year?!?!?!?

I can see many a Air traffic controller growing many a grey hair reading that!!

I get the impression that it's another one of those stories where you can make the statistics say what you want to say... Could it just be that in the survey, more of the older pilots responded... suppose you have to find something to do while sitting at FL350...

We just need another SARS or Sept 11, and they won't be shedding pilots quick enough!!!!!

Thanks for posting that Sqwark... bout time we had a bit of humour posted on the board.. ;)

[CT7]

How come you got time to read newspapers. Your son should be wearing you down about now..... or has that new job got too much time off huh?

Nice spotting anyway S2K. Most interesting.

[Tape It Shut]

Its total lies. Look around New Zealand at the number of Flying schools creaming it from the student loan scheme. The government is about to put an end to it all. The industry has made up a BS story about the need to train 800 people per year. In other words "don't cut the funding please".

I doubt whether 10% of these people ever get to fly for a living and ultimately end up with nothing but a huge debt while the local flying school polishes its new aircraft.

The whole thing is just one big sad con job sold on lies!!!

[Kanga767]

yep, definately five cents in your suitcase when you think you've got 2 million.....


K

[yellow rocket]

Translating the article in summary...

Aviation Industry Association, aka Air New Zealand puppet, gets Irene King, from Air New Zealand's Bullsh*t Castle, to go cap in hand to Helen asking the taxpayer to cover a further shortfall in strategic planning at Air NZ.

Some politicians will believe anything.

Roll on Pacific Blue...the next New Zealand flag carrier.

[MoFo]

If they were paid more than peanuts they wouldn't go somewhere else and work .

Their skills are saleable on a world market that offers more than NZ rates.

[ALLBLACK]

Hmmm there yoiu are seems like a nother crap frpm the NZ . go and fund the kids, wish we have a funding system like that in Aussi , or may be we shouls start sending them to NZ ,,,,

Prop

[CurtissJenny]

If all the Kiwi pilots now flying on the western island went back to the land of the long white cloud there would be an endless supply for the next five years at least !

[BCF Breath]

TIS
I think you hit the nail on the head with that one.

Too many people with the possibility of losing their nice lifestyle paid for by the unsuspecting wanna-be pilot.

[Lodown]

Don't blow the newspaper article off altogether. There are some pertinent aspects there. The US employment market is in a swamp at the moment, however a read of several new books and magazine articles indicate the US employment boom of the late 1990s was only a warm-up compared to the employment situation coming in 2010.
The reason - the bulk proportion of the baby boomers hit their big spending years around then, while the number of retirees can't be replaced by the lesser number of generation x'ers. It's not just going to effect pilots, but every market, particularly the tech industry. If reality matches the forecasts, kids will be able to pick and choose their employment.
It's a little hard to fathom given the current situation, but the chorus indicating labour shortages is getting bigger, and you don't think HR staff aren't taking notice?

[Kaptin M]

You're talking 7 years away, L/D. There are going to be a myriad of changes to many jobs during that period, not least of which will see the developing countries, with their associated enormous potential workforces, come into their own.

Current immigration barriers will be lowered or removed, to enable companies to maintain a staffing level, and to prevent country's economies from floundering.
All part of the "Global Village" bs that has caused the downward spiral in the western world's employment conditions.

[Lodown]

2010-2014 reportedly is going to be the peak period. If the market goes as predicted, people will start noticing the first signs late next year and it will just keep building.

Varying estimates indicate by 2010, there could be 10 million jobs that can't be filled just in the US alone. What's that going to do to wages and staff retention? If the job explosion comes to fruition there are going to be a lot of people with memories about getting screwed by particular companies in the early 2000's.

[Split Flap]

Tape It Shut,

Bang on with that comment brother, cant belive the AIA is blowing smoke up MP's arses like that, they are supposed to look after the industry.

There will NEVER be a situation in NZ where aircraft are grounded because the Cheif Pilot has run out of CV,s. Yes experience levels may fluctuate, they may not get the personalites they like, and training may take slightly longer with less experienced chaps taking a bigger jump than they may have done when movement is not as swift. But you can be damm sure that airlines will not ground aircraft because they cant get somebody to fill the front 2 seats.

If somebody would be kind enough to save this reply somewhere and when the pilot shortage hits, present it to me and I will gladly eat my hat, as long as I can have some of that nice sweet chilli sauce on it.

Good topic starter S2K, Im off to write a letter to that MP to let him know hes having his leg pulled.

Grumble grumble mumble cuss

[bateman]

The whole thing could be a crock, but I do dispute Irene Kings' assertion that it takes several years to train a jet pilot.

Only in Australia and NZ are pilots brainwashed into thinking that they need to have 2500hrs plus to be 'experienced enough' or worthy to fly a Dash/Saab etc, let alone a jet.

I spent my first 2 years flying in the bush back home, but now that I am in the UK, I see 250 hr guys going straight onto heavy jets. And given a decent competant individual and solid line training there is absolutely no problem.

The idea that a pilot has to spend several years 'training' to fly a jet is rubbish. Perhaps if she said that supply and demand dictates several years experience, that would be more accurate.

As for the chances of a pilot shortage, I will believe it when Robyn Hind calls me in the UK begging me to come home for an interview.

cheers all.

[Oz Ocker]

I spent my first 2 years flying in the bush back home, but now that I am in the UK, I see 250 hr guys going straight onto heavy jets. And given a decent competant individual and solid line training there is absolutely no problem.
The idea that a pilot has to spend several years 'training' to fly a jet is rubbish.

Ohhmegod! Now some b@st@rds gunna accuse me a bein' bateman.
An youse all thought I was avin a go at youse.

The big down ill slides startin blokes. I'll give 'er 3 or 4 years from now til we start ta see a NOTICEABLE increase in major prangs.
There ya go!

See youse round.

[anti-skid]

Now there is a scary thought! If Im on an "El Cheapo Air" flight
from Luton to Ibiza and the captain becomes incapacitated,
the guy in charge has 250 hours! :eek:
Might as well have a med student perform unsupervised brain
surgery:\

[Eurocap]

Mahary is quite right.

The industry (airlines) should be taking more responsibility in training their own.

Qantas had a cadet scheme back in the 60's because of a shortage of future pilots. There training was excellent.

No pilots in those days payed for an airline type rating and a lot of airlines were employing pilots without completed instrument ratings and giving them further training.

Why should the taxpayer be funding individuals for their so called chosen career when they b*gger off overseas.

Its time we became realistic. Its time that one had to crawl over broken glass to get the qualifications and the job again. One might appreciate what they have instead of expecting things to fall into their lap while doing nothing.

GOOD ON YOU STEVE!!!!!!!
:ok: :ok: :ok: :ok:

[nike]

This report does sound like the start-up dribble for justifying more money spent on "Commissions" or "Inquiries" and the like.

The Government should simply reduce alcohol tax to keep the public in a continual inebriated state instead of throwing money at these spin doctors.

"Taxpayers have some responsibility, but the industry has to pay as well," said Maharey, who was briefed on Friday on the association's findings.
Taxpayers have some responsibility...:confused: :rolleyes:

Air NZ gets free pilots already!! They have absolutely no cadet scheme nor do they put a concerted effort into the GA sector to promote growth.

King said it took six to 10 years to train a pilot for jet operations.
She must be dreaming.

Tape it shut - I totally agree. There has to be one or two training establishments around worried about their gravy train drying up.

[123567]

The E-mail address for The Minister being lied to is

[email protected]

Please feel free to send your comments to him directly.

If he believes Mrs King then I have some coastal real estate for sale that he might like to purchase.

:ok:

[FU24-950M]

Guys & Gals,

How does a building firm train a spotty faced school leaver?

Well done, good answer- CORRECT.
-Through an apprenticeship
ie low pay, train at the employers expense and work under supervision, gaining full trade qualification at the end.
In return the empolyer expects the newly trained tradesman (appologies - TRADESPERSON) to remain in his/her empoly for some years AFTER completion of training.

A carpenter is taught skills and knowledge of th ebuilding industry. A pilots SKILLS are his/her flying ability, and KNOWLEDGE is of aviation regulations and acft system.

Does the govt subsidise the building or any other industry to train new personel?

Remember Air NZ is the ONLY airline to EVER pay its directors -ala FAT CATS- a bonus for 'Trying hard".

Must go for my afternoon 'REST' before tonights all night duty.

[FatEric]

bateman,

the airline I now fly for has 250 hour kiddies in the RHS of the jet too, except the training here involves the IP pulling out the news paper at 10000 on the way up and stowing it at 10000 on the way down. Whats more scary is that after only a couple of years, these guys get thier command and guess what - same type of training. ie - none.

[Anti Skid On]

Now there is a scary thought! If Im on an "El Cheapo Air" flight from Luton to Ibiza and the captain becomes incapacitated,
the guy in charge has 250 hours!

Well my mate joined the Nigels (BA) with zero hours, and 15 months later and about 180 hrs tt was right seat in a 734 doing four short haul flights a day in some of the most congested airspace in the world. It is common place over there - do an approved course and exit with CPL, multi IR, type rating and a frozen ATPL (and frozen CPL till you get to 750 hours, which is the minimum for a CPL there).

The testing is the issue - I'd trust the testing of these guys who are trained to perform in one specific type to a specific set of parameters. They have to demonstrate competence, so whilst it may be scary, they have been deemed up to it.

(PS anti-skid are you my long lost brother????:confused: )

[Gnadenburg]

Bateman

250 hour cadet is good at flying around at 250kts on a SIDs,follow a green line to a STAR and running down an ILS with ceiling and XW limits. Expecting too much more is fantasy.

My opinion. It takes a long time for that crew member to become highly competant and confident in an environment other than that which is benign on a STAR/SID, to an abnormal situation in whatever form. Glass can become information overload in an abnormal situation. Basic airmanship and skill levels not to be dismissed. Trouble is these aircraft are too reliable but........

Let's talk about Cadets and air safety. The vulnerable years when their experience and confidence is very low. How about case examples? I will start with one. There is an operator in the Middle East that came close to going broke. It is the only operator to have multiple Airbus write offs-a cadet watched a Captain fly into the water and on the other occassion the aircraft veered off the runway with cadet at the controls.

There is risk with inexperience. With the way pay and conditions are going for 737 pilots in Oceana, get the feeling General Aviation is upgrading with the inherent risk.

[anti-skid]

The testing is the issue - I'd trust the testing of these guys who are trained to perform in one specific type to a specific set of parameters
I see your point A-S on, but seems they learn to run
before learning to crawl :confused:

[Bunglerat]

Irrespective of how factual or otherwise this report may be, there is one thing that always seems to be overlooked when the topic arises: When industry observers talk about the impending shortage of pilots, they are usually referring to a shortage of EXPERIENCED pilots. We all know there will never be a shortage of pilots as a whole.

[bateman]

Gnadenburg and FatEric - I agree with both of you, in that a guy with 250 hours is going to have less chance of sorting out a major emergency than a guy with 5000 hours. But we all make mistakes, the Qantas crew that ended up on the Bangkok golfcourse had over 30000 hours between them (cpt/fo/so). And the F/O had 8973 at the time, of which 5187 were on the 744. So experience is no guarantee against error, but it is good insurance.

My point was that a 250 hour guy is CAPABLE of doing the job. He may not be the best pilot currently available on the market, but he is capable.

A good parrallel is the way many companies handle command upgrades. Companies without strict seniority may simply pick the best f/o available at the time, regardless of seniority. Whereas, a good company will pick the most senior f/o capable of doing the job.

I dont like the situation where guys with 250 hours are getting jobs on jets. I feel those jops should go to people like myself, with several years experience. But thats not to say they are not able to do the job.

OzOcker - Im not sure what your point was.

[Gnadenburg]

Wasn't the QF 1 Captain a cadet? Couldn't resist.

Inexperienced pilots take longer to upgrade too. So a rapidly expanding company like Pacific Blue can only go so far with inexperience. They will need people who can upgrade. A 250 hour pilot won't in a hurry!

To deny the value of experience and safety will cost somebody. The pendulum has swung a little the other way-economics and airline politics versus common sense safety regarding suitable pilots with suitable levels of experience. Because the last few low cost start ups have gotten away with it doesn't mean the next will.

There are more jet accidents out there guys where inexperience a factor. Have you forgot or taking the stand of airline beancounters.

[Tape It Shut]

250 Hours = Bunny

[Mr. Hat]

Pardon my ignorance ppruners but why dont we get the 200 hr guys to just go straight for the command. I mean the captain usually has all this bad experience he/she has accumulated over the years.

I trained at one of these places and yes they do a great job and yes I did well and no I don't regret it but do you know what? At 200 hrs you cant fly for sh!t. Just like you can't drive for sh!t when you first get you drivers licence.

The only reason the argument gets brought up now and again is that people are just too farking scared to go out into big bad crusty GA and have a go. Try convincing dad that a newly licenced car driver can do a better job than one with 5 years and 100,000ks under the belt (tried it - didnt work..got the bus). Or even better try that one with the insurance companies. They will laugh very loudly at your suggestion.

As for the shortage - oh Brother! Come on people! We aren't going to get into this crap again are we. Do you think maybe that its in some peoples interest to keep pumping out pimply faced pilots to keep wages and conditions down perhaps? DO YA THINK? Ding ding. Hey if a pilot shortage ever comes around it will be a funny day.


HAT

[currawong]

Shortage/Smortage

No one is saying a 250 hr pilot is better than a 2500 or 25000 hr pilot.

Point is they are good enough to get licensed.

Or are we saying that the training is so mediocre that after 250 hrs they cannot fly? Does that mean we are licensing people that cannot fly?

Perhaps a 500 hr or 750 hr CPL is in order? What a joke.

Would like to hear some input on this from someone that has gone through the military system or a cadetship scheme. Regarding hrs vs equipment. Think it would open some eyes.

[somyungi]

Full credit to all those who are able to see right through this.

Firstly nz does not have and will not have a shortage of pilots on the global scale of things, the local scene may change from what it is now, ie lower job entry requirements but we will not be short.

With regard to placing 250 hr pilots on the right hand stool of a heavy it may be frightening to us hicks in the south pacific but come on how do you think the rest of the world operates. There is no difference between this and an apprentice scheme.

The New Zealand aviation industry has brought this situation upon themselves as with most other higher educated trades in nz, THEY NEED TO PAY PROPERLY. The main reason for people leaving nz is so that they can be payed what they are worth.

If we cap the student loans how do we train our doctors??????

The idea of giving full student loans to a limited number of trainee pilots is a good one as not all of us are living out of daddy's pocket, but 800 odd thats bollocks. Why not aquire the figures from the regionals as to how many they hired this year and fund that many for next year, a number of more like 200 im gessing this also allows for those who have there own funding and those who drop out.

[BCF Breath]

Air Nelson (re)hired approx 18.
Don't know about Eagle. Say 10 ??
Air NZ / Freedom about ??? 80 ???
Cathay apparently 20 ???
And that was a huge year for NZ aviation.

Damn site fewer than 800!

If they get loans there should be some sort of goal setting and set achievement required or the loan gets pulled.

Plus some sort of pre-selection type interview to sort out the rich wanna-be kids and those that actually know a bit about the job.

[DeltaT]

grrrrrr, reading articles like that in the paper makes me angry :mad:

As for pilots being poached from overseas, what a load of bollocks.
The pilots are leaving because the industry here is such a joke and going elsewhere for better pickings and hunting out those overseas airlines!

Should anyone wish to call up the Aviation Industry Association and abuse them for passing on such false information, their phone number is as follows
Wellington: 04 472 2707

[Seat 37b]

I think we're a little off track with this one.

The previous contributor is quite correct, there will be a lack of experienced pilots rather than a shortage of pilots in NZ.

Maybe some of us should put ourselves in the shoes of those at school aspiring to become a pilot. Surely any assistance that the aviation industry can gain from the NZ Government in regard to funding for new pilots is great.

Or do we want our future pilots to be only the sons/daughters of the wealthy or those with big balls to gain ridiculous overdrafts.

As we have seen in the NZ industry recently, a university scheme that attracts the wealthy, does not always produce the best product.

[DeltaT]

while it is valid that it will help those students pilots, the end result is that too many are helped, too many pilots come onto the market, the airlines keep the experience requirements high, and the lower level operators keep their pay low

decrease supply, experience requirements come down, and not so many of us are unemployed as a pilot!!!!

supply and demand

[Seat 37b]

WRONG !!!!

Employers look overseas......

The west island has a few unemployed boys waiting for NZ jobs.

[somyungi]

spot on mate

We still need the student loan scheme for those who are richdaddy difecent, but as it is now the only winners are the training institutions, not the disalutioned students

[DeltaT]

Wrong? Whats wrong with what I have said, you have done nothing more than prove the point.

and the west island boys are jet rated, with 1000s of hours???
or are you going to make us believe outfits in NZ are holding out for some new CPL from Auz??
it proves what everyone else is saying, the lack of experienced pilots at the top end, NOT the shortage of actual pilots.
reduce the abundance and the requirements set by the airlines come down, why else do you think 250hr pilots get in the right hand seat of big jets outside of nz and auz?
Air NZ mainline, as an example has no evident policy on taking on a crosssection of pilots experience wise. So that they end up getting a whole group coming due to retire at once etc. There is then no group to replace them at the present entry requirement, because of our stiffled employment situation, and they scream out 'o where are they all'. Diversification, spread the experience in those taken on, is all that it needs, or is that too obvious?
I am not advocating dashing out and hiring 250hr pilots, but by spreading the experience through the ranks, we will reduce this situation and cry baby tactics. Even with a less experienced co pilot (i.e <4000-5000hr pilot for air nz jet standard, ahem...), there is still the experience of the training captain they are with, the cockpit crew works together remember!. If accidents happened due to inexperience in the airlines, then there would be more accidents lower in the food chain also.

Rich daddy? I had no rich daddy, I got off my butt and worked.
Build up a credit rating and then borrow the balance on what you have saved, from the bank.
Or is that too hard and you prefer it on a plate??

Disillusioned students you say, mmm, why could that be, were you not told of the high % of pilots that can't find a job?
or do you mean because you cant get a loan anymore?
Think of it as a saving grace on you not having to declare bankrupt.

[nike]

Air NZ has got a pilot cadetship programme:

NZ Regionals.

Free to boot.

Only problem is the amount of dregs left over is starting to build up too much.

They need to keep the numbers moving through up in order to skim off the top 2%.

[Warhawk]

PILOT SHORTAGE - NEW ZEALAND eh? Are they serious, maybe someone should tell the serious fraud office about the AIA!

As long as there are flying schools happy to lie about job prospects and starry-eyed kids with mummy's $$ around there will NEVER be a shortage of pilots in NZ! (IMHO of course!) :p

As for a shortage of experienced pilots, simple answer - try paying something approaching the std level and we will come home. NZ must have the worst pilots pay and condx of any western country I know... (check out Freedom and Pacific Blue). Talking around the crew room recently, we mostly left because:

- Very slow progression
- Very, very, very low pay levels
- Unpleasant employers
- Crazy entry requirements

As an example I get paid 2.4 X what i would get in NZ for the same job. Just check QF & CX pay scales vs Air NZ (let alone Freedom) for an idea.

Anyway, theres my rave on the subject.

As a parting shot I am curious as to why VB deems it OK to pay their Pacific Blue NZ F/O's half of what they pay their Ozzie ones for doing EXACTLY the same job. Thats what you get when the industry supports employment practices like Freedoms, the std has been dragged soooo low that I doubt it is still worth becoming a pilot in NZ except to leave the country?

A shame, its such a nice place to visit - now if only Emirates would open an AKL base... :O

[Lloyd Braun]

What's next ?

PNG Blue perhaps. All those PNG natives could be employed under local terms and conditions and paid even lower still in Kina .....

[ALLBLACK]

good for the flying schools and they can milk the tax payers ,,, what a rubbish system, finacing the dumb kids and also the the Little Islanders who can get the NZ paaasport , get the training and they will raise the middle finger and good bye to Helen Clearkkkkkkk