Aer Lingus uk
 

Any reason for EIUK losing G-EIDY back to Dublin? Now back to EI-EDY

Rumour of the 2 A330-200’s replacing the remaining A330-300 and the A321. The JFK route is performing well and could do with an upgrade, the MCO, although picking up is still not requiring of the A330-300 capacity.

will another 330-200 come in the winter for the BGI??

My thoughts were that I've noticed that quite often one of the A330s is on the ground at MAN anyway while the other one is doing the MCO flight. Your theory may be right though like

MCO has seen much more capacity previously and initially it seems surprising EIUK is not selling more seats...but then factor in the cost of living crisis, the exchange rate and look at just how much two weeks in Orlando (if visiting theme parks) costs you can quickly understand why numbers are not today like they used to be. It's a seriously costly excersise these days and is probably beyond the masses taking a familiy there anymore - ast least until total holiday price reduces, but thats unlikely when theme park tickets alone cost close to £1,000 per per person before you even think about flights, accomodation, transport and spending money.

They've never operated more than one daily A330 and one daily A321N so far as I can see? Zero need for two A330s at all.

Re-read what I wrote, the JFK route is performing very well and could probably sustain an upgrade to an A330. The MCO/BGI routes would continue on an A330. That makes x2 A330’s.

I don’t think the cost is a reason. From London MCO is still doing well with 6 daily flights (LGW/LHR) with TUI, Virgin and BA. I would imagine it’s just more people don’t think to check Aer Lingus or stick with Virgin/TUI (given there’s nearly 3 daily between them) from MAN because that’s who they booked their holiday with.

Voucher redemptions are a big factor. At MAN, Virgin and TUI are carrying high volumes of passengers who have redeemed vouchers provided in lieu of cancelled trips during covidworld. This is boosting load factors for those issuing carriers, but not providing fresh income - the original customer payments were made a long time ago. But Aer Lingus UK is a new launch operation out of MAN. Voucher redemptions must be close to negligible for them, so that means that loads rely on fresh bookings from travellers choosing to part with real cash in the very challenging contemporary environment. Cost-of-living concerns and airport horror stories combine to make customers think twice about splashing out for discretionary leisure travel right now.

As an aside, I myself made a number of air travel bookings once covid restrictions were lifted (though not Transatlantic with EI UK). I looked forward to to the return of hassle-free flying like we remember it pre-covid. Unfortunately, I have instead been lumbered with another FIVE flight cancellations, more vouchers and more interminable administrative hassle. One of the cancellations resulted in me having to pay three times the original fare with an alternative carrier. In another, I'm now in dispute with Wizz Air who failed to apply my 'Wizz Credit' to an online booking as they should have done; they are now claiming that this 'Wizz Credit' has expired and are refusing to refund it. They instead deducted the whole fare from my credit card, rather than the small balance due after application of the 'Wizz Credit'. And Wizz Air have since cancelled the new flights as well and issued new 'Wizz Credit' for them. I'm chasing up a refund for that now. All extremely annoying ... Wizz Air join the appalling Air Europa on my 'never trust this shower again' list. Sorry to ramble on, but the point is that air travel hassle is still very much an issue in the post-covid environment. I'm wary of booking any flights well in advance of departure date now, and if I am reluctant, you can be certain that those who tolerate rather than love air travel will be in no rush to subject themselves to this kind of thing either. Right now, air travel is a really tough sell for those who don't have expiring travel vouchers to use up before a deadline.

I only meant that having a planned fleet of three dedicated aircraft for the summer made no sense for only 14 scheduled weekly flights. It's not about whether a route "could probably sustain an upgrade" it's about when if and when Dublin ops want their aircraft back for mainline DUB-US. It would have to be a stellar business case to beat being based in Ireland IMHO. Everything depends how quickly their home market rebounds I think.

Data suggests that new bookings have been buoyant for the summer to say the least, they *should* have no problems filling MAN-US given how tight capacity is locally. Annual holidays are not yet seeing the cost of living impact in the way suggested, there's a massive appetite for travel, being frustrated by operational meltdowns across Europe and beyond.

I would respectfully suggest that the voucher redemption bulge is obscuring the weak rebound amongst those who must part with freshly-earned cash. Though I do accept that there is pent-up demand from those who did well financially during the pandemic but were unable to spend their earnings at the time.

What is this data you talk of…

The MCO route started during Covid and it was only a few weeks the USA dropped the testing requirement, loads are picking up nicely for the summer. JFK has been a strong performer fro day 1 and the logic of this going to an A330 is sound ... it would be a good development story.

The 2nd A330 going to DUB for the summer was always in the plan - it was just in MAN for the set up phase as a spare but that phase is over, so I wouldn't read anything into the A330 going back to dub other than it's peak summer and having aircraft doing nothing isn't wise.

The issue of MCO - it's a route people book a long way in advance. I've seen both the VS and EUK loads and to be honest they are both good in the summer and weaker outside the school holidays. VS is slightly higher but as has been said above, a lot of people will have booked and paid as far back as summer 2020 and only now able to go, so I'd say moving forward these will improve.

Overall though, it seems EUK is doing well, certainly when in relation to the chaos in other parts of aviation at the moment

The talk of JFK being upgauged doesn’t surprise me, it seems to have done consistently well since its launch. The only thing I would say is business class loads have some catching up to do.

As for the fleet, two A330-200s would make sense if JFK is to be upgauged but will the A321LR return to Dublin or used to launch Boston? The apparent success of JFK would have me lean towards starting BOS sooner rather than later.

2x A332s and 1x A321 should have no problem serving the four destinations at current frequencies.

Except of course you will struggle to get all the scheduled and unscheduled maintenance done during turnrounds. Which is why there was a spare A330.
Tech delays will now be more common.

That’s never really stopped Aer Lingus before, previous summers at Dublin were always very tight until the fleet became large enough to work in some spare capacity. The alternative of having an A330 sitting around doing nothing everyday isn’t viable.

Very prophetic Hovis.
Looks like that back up aircraft is needed more than ever.

Indeed. G-EILA operating MCO-MAN (EI34) diverted to DAB on 8 November due to smoke in the cockpit.

Cancellations since:

- EI31/EI30 on 9 November
- EI35/EI34 on 10 November
- EI31/EI30 on 11 November

Kind of surprised they haven't tried to bring in charters to cover to be honest.

I've just ben told by my customer on the EI31 that they are subbing in an a/c and operating today's flight tomorrow. I hope so, they can't just keep cancelling flights like this. Not a good start to the winter season when they've been shouting the route from the rooftops this week

ILA is returning tonight.

is this EIuk venture really a goldmine worth Aer Lingus’ while? Just get impression it is all a bit marginal and was just a ‘what can we do with all these extra aircraft we ordered’ sort of venture that could be pulled as quick as it was set up.

I don’t think they’d be upgauging JFK if there were any plans to pull the plug in the next couple of years. Plenty of demand for A330s ex DUB, they’ve had to delay launching DUB-DEN due lack of staff and airframes. The question marks really hang over expansion. The mooted MAN-BOS A321 route will be competing with potential future expansion ex DUB, eg YQB, YUL, PIT, MCI, BUF etc so will face tough competition for allocation of airframes. They were expected to resume DUB-MSP on the XLR once it starts arriving but Delta as of today have slots on ACL for that route on the B763 so that might be reconsidered, possibly an extra airframe available for MAN.

Where do local enthusiasts think there’s an unserved demand they should aim for?

As SLF with no industry experience, this is very puzzling. OK, EI UK have only two planes, so uneconomic to have a spare. But, EI in total have quite a significant longhaul fleet, so surely one spare plane could cover tech problems from MAN and DUB. Ah, you say, but maybe an Irish registered plane couldn't just turn up and fly an EI UK flight. But, if a plane with any registration were chartered that would be OK, so a bit of nifty paperwork should overcome that hurdle.

Am I just naive, or should I be running an airline?

It would be useful to think of this at an Aer Lingus level. IF there's a business case presented that the UK based aircraft could be used more effectively out of Dublin base, that would happen. Those are Aer Lingus assets, albeit currently based in the UK. So, I would say, MAN has to over-perform expectations to survive. Remember when both BA and BMI's home bases decided that the MAN based fleets would be more profitable out of LHR? THAT mentality.

Whoops Una Due Tfc just said something similar, not plagarising, honest!

The load factors, compared to last year at least are significantly better. I've heard 84% for Aug, which isn't too bad considering VS going x2/day to MCO on most days. The BGI is averaging over 200 pax per flight compared to about 50ish last year, so things are improving. There's also a significant volume of cargo being carried too.

Also being reported is that all sales ex U.S on EI UK are no longer available. All flights showing via DUB to MAN. Not sure why this would be.

Brexit!

Yes, the loads have steadily improved to quite respectable levels over the summer at least, certainly in line with local rivals. Previous attempts by Aer Lingus at UK bases, most notably LGW, were always plagued with brand awareness issues which meant attracting passengers to their services was especially difficult, they no longer appear to be having that problem so that's one hurdle out of the way, now it's about making it profitable and whether there's a place for it alongside the DUB operation in the long term. I believe it can and should be pursued but it will often come down to where best to position assets and DUB will regularly have an upper hand.

As for the US sales, this happened when the flights first went live and lasted several weeks, I seem to remember it was a US DOT clause requiring Aer Lingus UK to prove it would eventually market and sell tickets itself. The airline was likely granted permission for US point of origin sales on certain exemptions which have now expired and in typical Aer Lingus fashion, they haven't secured a permanent solution yet. It sounds all very classic Aer Lingus I'm afraid.

Ive heard a rumour that EI are going to cancel the MAN-BGI route. has anyone else heard this?

Where's BI?

If you mean BGI then judging by the loads I'd say unlikely ...

Oops typo, I have edited

still taking on new crew 🤔

MCO appears to be continuing at daily much further into November 2023 than previously, indicating either a later start for BGI or it’s cancellation.

It wouldn’t surprise me, outside of the holidays it’s been very weak. The only positive is how well it appears to do up front.

Presumably for next summer. If BGI is axed, it won’t be until next winter.

Booked MAN-MCO-MAN for Jan 23 many moons ago for a party of 20. Have been looking recently at the seat map and there were 55 outbound and 40 inbound on our flights at last look, which obviously caused a little worry as to the possibility of a cancellation with such poor loads. The worry was not unwarranted as today we've had the flights cancelled on us. I doubt I'll try them again to be honest and back to Virgin it is.

Thanks for the heads up, I've just checked all of our bookings and the flights are canx from 16th to 28th Jan. Flights start up again 29th Jan.

Ahhh, that is why our return flight is operating early Feb then. We've been looking at other flights and out via DUB and back direct to MAN is £100 each cheaper - so cash back and no huge immigration queues at MCO could be a win win. My only worry is that the return flight is still as empty as it was and I don't want to rebbok to be in the same position in a week or two if they cancel that also. Will sleep on it.

A block of cancellations like that sounds more like for aircraft maintenance, than for commercial reasons, EI UK only having 1 A330.

Makes sense to plan the maintenance at the weakest time for bookings in the depth of the low season. Commercial cancellations more likely to take the form of selected dates being cancelled to reduce frequency, rather than a complete block of 12 days like that before returning to full frequency.

But I have no specific inside knowledge of Aer Lingus.

The aircraft is on a C check in January. No replacement aircraft available until March when EIDY returns.

Passed through MCO (BA from LGW) in Sept and happy to report that immigration was fairly quick - despite that we arrived in the hall at the same time as pax from a VS A350 that landed just after us.

Security on departure 2 weeks later was somewhat slower, with the usual customer-friendly TSA service ;)

Surely this is planned well in advance - so why sell tickets for that period in the first place and then cancel with just weeks to go. It alienates effected customers on a brand and route they are trying to build.

I'm guessing they were hoping to have either a spare aircraft (EIDY) available, or be allowed to sub in another. They haven't and they can't.