I'm at the other end of the country but I understand that much of the African diaspora lives in South London and LGW is their local airport, just as LTN is the local airport for the Jewish communities of North London. I think that people forget that the London airports are also regional airports.

Don’t see anything tangible it’s pure fluff, and as I said imho Norse would be advised to get a shed load of money UPFRONT And CLEARED in their bank.

Brixton, Croydon, Lewisham, Streatham etc….. might have diaspora but thats not the issue; its that list is FULL of virtual airlines and is a wish list.

DC3 or Dakotaman (I think I recognise the irony in your post:=)

You don’t pay money to odd ball Nigerians !

Norse needs money FROM Nigeria !

BTW The Punch isn’t exactly a bastion of free press its very much in the “pay” of certain elites and voices.

Air Peace are shady to their core indeed - Allen Ifechukwu Athan Onyema, the Chairman, CEO, and founder of Air Peace, was charged with bank fraud and money laundering for moving more than $20 million from Nigeria through United States bank accounts in a scheme involving false documents based on the purchase of aircraft a few years back!

They also have a terrible safety record

LGW future long haul
 

I'm largely in agreement with my good friend, Sotonsean. I love Gatwick, and I think that it is a far better airport than LHR by many measures. I want to see it continue to thrive, and not just be used as a "waiting room" for airlines while they seek to move to LHR- it deserves better than that. Having said that, I am intrigued by some of the names that are suddenly being flagged up as possible entrants to Gatwick, and I am sceptical about who (if any) will actually launch from LGW. Examples:

Thai Airways: They've never operated from, nor (to the best of my knowledge) shown any interest in establishing a dual London airport operation, so why would they go to LGW? On the other hand, Thai's capacity on LHR-BKK has been reduced significantly since the withdrawal of the A380 from their fleet (currently they fly to BKK twice a day using the 77W). The don't have any larger aircraft than the 777, so this may be a case of them wishing to add additional capacity in absence of the A380/744 (similar to what SQ and CX have done at LGW previously) and they cannot currently do so at LHR.

Vietnam Airlines: Previously operated at LGW before upping sticks and moving to LHR in 2015. Can't see them reopening LGW unless there has been a sudden surge in demand for for the LON-HAN and LON-SGN markets?

Sri Lankan: Similar to Vietnam Airlines. They already operate daily at LHR, so can't see them opening LGW as well.

Air Asia X: I'm sceptical about them even making a presence in Europe again, despite what they've previously announced in the media. The market since they were last here in 2009-2012 has changed significantly. There are more FSNC options to Asia than ever before, and towards the end of their time in the UK, D7 really struggled to compete against QR, EK et al. who's fares were not dissimilar from Air Asia's, who charge for add ons (meals, seat reservations etc). Scoot also tried a similar strategy with LGW-BKK-SIN and that didn't last long at all. I think Air Asia X's time in the UK has been and gone sadly.

Also important is limited terminal and gate space. LGW is that much smaller compared to LHR, with two terminals and a single runway, and although plans to put the second runway into routine use are progressing, this is still some way off. This will hence limit how many (if any) of the aforementioned carriers can launch from Gatwick.

However, I also realise that LGW had an extraordinary and successful year last year in attracting new long haul airlines to the airport, and I am wondering whether this is a case of airlines coming to the realisation that LHR is unlikely to ever be expanded beyond its two existing runways (even though the writing has been on the wall for some time), and that carriers are now wanting to come to LGW while they still can before there are no slots left? I never once expected Singapore Airlines to launch at LGW for example, and I reckon that CX have noted this and are now eying a return to LGW in the winter, hence why they are being flagged up again.

Problem with Bangkok is two fold -lack of sufficient premium sales and also wrong place in Thailand for many tourists and indeed the hundred or so “digital nomads come social media bloggers or other dodgy dealers ” down by Krabi and/or Phuket.
Thai have been said to be on the verge of operating to Manchester (said to be one of the largest unserved long haul markets on the planet- can’t confirm or deny it) for literally half my life !

Now I am willing to consider the much rumoured Chatham tailed operators at some point as viable.

My understanding is Vietnam desperately wants to remain at Heathrow.

Air Asia X financially aren’t in any position to recommence European long haul - let face it whatever way you look at it Long(er) haul low cost models tend to fail , unless combined with a level of tour/cruise contract and protected income streams.


.

The Thai Manchester rumour is one I've seen flagged elsewhere numerous times too for years now- I'll believe it when I see them on the tarmac at MAN ;) Clearly demand to Bangkok from London isn't what it once was. Look at BA for example, they operated to BKK for years as BA9 from LHR-BKK-SYD with the 744. Later this was curtailed to BKK only with a 772 before being withdrawn completely. Since then, BA have shown no sign of wanting to resume this route. Scoot also wasn't able to make LGW-BKK work on the 788, and that went quickly.

Longhaul options at LGW
 

Gatwick is in the best possible situation right now. You guys can disagree with me but it is. Vietnam don’t want double daily to London but they don’t have slots for Heathrow in the summer.

if airlines like Singapore airlines are going to Gatwick anyone will. I’ve suggested many airlines that could be maybes not this year but next year too. Thai is a maybe because it is popular just the yield isn’t as good. Every airline I’ve also suggested want Heathrow slots sometimes a lot like Kuwait and gulf air which could make Gatwick a maybe although I haven’t heard anything on them.

also taag get 787s this year so that will enable growth.

I’ve said my list for potentials this year and what I expect. Taag, azul, avianca, cathay, another Chinese airline, air Tanzania, air peace and Sri Lankan.

i think this is quite realistic as a list! If the second runway gets approved it will make everything so much better and east

I love your enthusiasm and support for LGW, as I too love this airport, and seeing it bounce back from the situation it was in during Covid, I don't disagree with you completely either. I believe you about Cathay returning to LGW. They were doing well from Gatwick, and had it not been for the mess that was the pandemic, they would have still been here (notwithstanding the political situation in HKG). I am now, as I'm sure others are, eagerly awaiting confirmation of their return in October :)

Not very much of a critical thinker 🤔

As for TAAG little chance of 2024 deliveries . They didn’t complete the engine choice and power by hour contract till November gone !

They aren’t for expansion as far as I can see but to replace the three already parked 77E and that leased in capacity.

Again look at the virtual African carriers - how on earth are any close to starting up let alone have equipment , licenses and ancillary contract !

And again would YOU put your money anywhere near Air Peace when you know the facts behind them seriously ?

Nigeria Air (Ethiopian) is bogged down in bureaucracy and potential issues with the FGN as to whether Abuja or Lagos should be the base - Ethiopian have a logical preference for the later for commercial reasons. Again to have any agreement aircraft, staff and ancillary contracts; indeed licences and slots in place during 2024 seems extremely optimistic.

Their initial targets are Johannesburg, Addis and Dubai according to the Nigerian authorities - London would be in the second phase .

Remember many many years ago, Avianca at Gatwick on a Thursday afternoon, however can’t see why they would consider a split operation today, just doesn’t make any sense. Have a spare frame best sent on another Spanish rotation imho.
Squeezed capacity is also incredibly useful at maintaining margins 👍

Another Chinese flight maybe depending on the perceived political benefits and organised tour requirements.

Azul I said yes previously - they might be able to borrow slots from their buddies at TAP

Personally still have doubts about Cathay in 2024 , but willing to hold judgement based on the local political situation .

I’d like to here your thought process around SriLanka please.

Having faith isn’t at all compatible with business realities

As for commissioning of the current temporary runway on a more permanent bases , there are many legal and regulatory hurdles including safety concerns, it’s far more than a paper exercise , includes a displaced threshold and NEW construction shoulders to the North , will require local approvals, may only be used for departure sequences on 26R and that’s before a mass of environmental impact assessments and mitigations.

Kuwait and Gulfair are niche and boutique carriers these days and have both taken their UK growth potential elsewhere. Neither has any further capacity any time soon. Alia Royal Jordanian similarly.

Surely Gatwick is totally and ridiculously slot-constrained in summer - is easyJet going to sell some to all these other carriers?

Do Aer Lingus's slots belong to IAG or are they up for sale?

Easy have actually relinquished a package of temporary slots back to BA(EFW) in the coming season and are reducing their based fleet size .

The Aer Lingus slot position I don’t actually know; but likely transferred to VLG/EFW/IBS as well.

Someone else might confirm

If Air Senegal plan to launch London flights again they might well opt for LGW this time.

I expect the Aer Lingus slots will go to other IAG airlines. Easyjet also need to return the remaining 140 weekly slots (70 slot pairs) they still have on lease from BA within the next year or so.
Easyjet recently returned 90 weekly slots (45 slot pairs) they had leased from BA back to BA mainly for use by Euroflyer.
Easyjet will have a smaller summer operation from Gatwick in Summer 2024 compared to Summer 2023. Having 80 plus based aircraft at Gatwick for Summer 2023 did not go well for them operationally.
I don't think Gatwick is totally slot constrained for summer 2024. It is more a case of some airlines not always getting the slot times they would really like.

In November 2023 it was announced that Air Senegal would be discontinuing four European destinations which includes Barcelona, Lyon, Marseille and Milan, leaving Paris as their core route to Europe.

Even Air Senegal Dakar to New York JFK route is under review as passenger loads are only about 67%.

Air Senegal may have announced Dakar to STN prior to the pandemic but I have doubts that they will be announcing London anytime soon. Especially if they are discontinuing the likes of Lyon and Marseille.

I just wanted to congratulate you on your perfect quote regarding the over enthusiastic daydreamer.

"Not very much of a critical thinker"
🤔

Excellent:-)

Regarding your previous post's where you mentioned Air Tanzania and the "second" Boeing 788.

Air Tanzania currently have two Boeing 788 in their fleet with a "third" example joining the airline in Q2 24.

Air Tanzania have previously stated that they intend on resuming service to London once they receive their third Boeing 788.

Uganda Airlines have also previously stated that they intend on resuming service to London once they have received CAA approval and a full audit of Entebbe Airport is completed.

Iraqi Airway recently inaugurated service to Germany and Denmark from Baghdad and Erbil to Berlin, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt and Copenhagen.

Iraqi Airways have recently put out a tender for an ACMI operator for expansion of their European destinations.

Air Asia X have recently stated that they have no intentions in resuming flights to London.

Of course all of these announcements are available to search online.

CH-AVIATION.COM is a very good source if you want to keep up with what is going on in the world of commercial aviation.

Not disputing stated intentions whatsoever. Air Tanzania “second” 787 has spent that last three months parked at Selatar . They can’t afford to fly it - No surprise but still .

And again I did say the IA code would reappear do read, rather less likely with a green painted tube through.

While all this talk of new long haul carriers is interesting, what is the impact on the airport? Do they contribute much to the bottom line? I seem to remember handling some of the smaller carriers being quite challenging.

Swiss to Gatwick
 

Don’t know if any of you have heard but Swiss have added Gatwick-Zurich 6 weekly!

If Swiss (not Edelweiss) are prepared to fly to Gatwick instead of LHR/LCY outside the ski season, then it's effectively open season for all European carriers to do a land grab on whatever slots they can get at LGW. The short-haul market has effectively said NO (with a big booming shouty voice) to paying silly prices for LHR slots. I can't think of another airline in Europe that is more premium focussed

Is it "heard or read"?

The majority of people tend to find things out by reading articles or on social media, etc rather than "hearing" them. There is a huge difference between hearing and reading.

FYI....Have you heard but according to the SWISS website ZUR-LGW is daily rather than 6 weekly. Flights are available for booking on days 1 to 7.

SWISS announced Zurich to London Gatwick in November 2023.

On another note, the Star Alliance Group have definitely increased their airline presence at LGW over the last few years.

The Star Alliance Group is well represented at LGW by the following airlines.

Aegean Airlines
Air China
Air India
Croatia Airlines
Ethiopian Airlines
Lufthansa
Singapore Airlines
SWISS
TAP Air Portugal
Turkish Airlines


Might be time for a dedicated Star Alliance lounge at LGW which would be a challenge considering that all of the above airlines are spread over the two terminals.