Cathay Pacific
 

It will be south terminal for sure. One world with British airways. I think China southern are moving to north terminal.

We see lots of reports of 'imminent' start dates for various foreign operators, not only on PPrune but on various aviation/routes websites. On many occasions it just seems to be people regurgitating an announcement that has been made by an airline regarding their intention to fly to the UK. But there are quite a few hurdles to overcome before a new operator can start. Apologies to those of you who may be familiar with all of this, but thought it might be helpful to summarize.
Firstly, Air Zimbabwe, like Iraqi Airways, is on the UK Safety List, so cannot operate here unless they use wet-leased aircraft.
Before any foreign carrier can fly commercially to the UK, they must obtain a Third Country Operator (TCO) authorisation. This is a safety assessment of the carrier, independent of the EASA TCO approvals, without which the airline cannot apply for a Permit to fly to the UK. The CAA publishes a list of all TCO holders on its website.
Once the TCO is in place, the operator can apply for a Foreign Carrier Permit, but it is a bit more than a rubber stamping exercise. The carrier's proposed schedule must be consistent with the bilateral Air Service Agreement between the UK and State of Origin (some ASAs limit the number of carriers from each side or have frequency and capacity restrictions). The carrier must demonstrate that they hold sufficient insurance cover and have a system to collect and transmit to UKBF Advanced Passenger Information (API). There will also be a security assessment of the airport(s) from which they want to fly. Depending on how organised a carrier is, these things can take quite a bit of time, and might prevent the operator from meeting their proposed start date, or preclude them from flying here at all.
So, yes, good to see positive intent from plenty of overseas carriers, and ACL reporting that some already hold slots, but until all of these other things are in place, they will not be able to commence flights!

Good to know, that being said... :

Have Cathay got their crewing issues sorted out then? Cos LHR is still only 4 daily on not all B77W by a long way.
Are Avianca moving from LHR or is Bogota growing fast enough to warrant two London airports?

Surely most would/could just go on similar BA services?

I am as I'm sure your aware in total knowledge of how the Chinese carriers work and who actually operates them.

Although I stated the future possibility of Cathay Pacific returning to London Gatwick I fully agree with your comments. You've stated the same on several occasions. Although the "future" could be any date in time.

CX
 

South terminal is definitely busy now as far as long haul is concerned, so presumably China Southern are moving to be able to accommodate CX's return to the South Terminal when they (hopefully) return in October. Will be something seeing both the SQ and CX A350s at Gatwick.

As Skip inferred Chinese carriers are a Ponzi scheme with differing liveries . That said there are nuances with areas of interest, and even some intergovernmental disagreements particularly between Beijing and Shanghai .

Absolutely everything the three main groups do is sanctioned by the state . Their existence in the international sphere is both soft and hard power political projection.

Nothing in China is ever all it seems

Many thanks for your response but I'm fully aware of everything that you have stated as well what Skip was inferring to. I'm certainly no novice I can assure you. But at least you have informed those who didn't know any better.

Gatwick airport
 

Gatwick at the moment is very interesting probably the most interesting out of any airport in the world if you like new routes.

If you saw the Heathrow slot report around 50 airlines asked for new additional or new slots. Obviously most of them are gojng to wait till they get them. However some will choose Gatwick and very few like royal Jordanian will go to stansted.

For me the Gatwick slot report is interesting but at this moment in time quite irrelevant as many airlines not requiring those slots and looking to expand operations to London will go to Gatwick so any airline could come to Gatwick at anytime.

Right now azul of Brazil, Cathay, Vietnam airlines, taag, avianca and even Sri Lankan are most likely to start and an additional Chinese carrier could also be a potential. But generally it could be anyone from anywhere.

Is there a demand for Japan? Just curious as seems like a destination that would work.

Gatwick
 

I forgot to add air peace into the mix too

There will be, but with the seemingly indefinite situation re Vlad (and his big airspace) it doesn’t seem the best of times for a Japanese carrier to open LGW imho

Perhaps in a few years time though.

Japanese airlines are incredibly conservative with regards to growth. And JAL managed to get slots for the 2nd daily a few years ago at LHR.

Norwegian wanted to fly LGW-NRT pre covid but had an issue getting rights (can’t remember if it was Russian over flight right or something else).

I can’t see ANA or JAL going to LGW. Maybe one of their low cost carriers - Air Japan or ZipAir might if they ever expand to Europe.

Gatwick longhaul options
 

So with air peace pretty much done and coming I am now looking at more Africa, Asia and South American growth.

I have no faith in any carrier announcing Japan, however south Korea I believe Korean air could return.

Other places china and India is where the growth for me will be. Thai could announce next year or even winter, air Asia next year.

other airlines that could are etihad, gulf air, Kuwait airways etc.

South American growth- aero Mexico, avianca and azul could add.

then Africa- any of these: air Tanzania, taag, Egypt air, air Zimbabwe, Kenya airways etc

Your getting a bit carried away aren't you. Anyone can read the ACL reports and assume what they like.

Are you even considering runway and terminal availability and capacity for all those airlines your thinking out aloud about. You have to remember that LGW currently has just a single runway and only two terminals.

But you've definitely come out of your slumber with more posts in two days than since you joined in March 2023. You've found an audience on here and quite possibly daydreaming to some extent.

Although I agree with a few of your suggestions but why would Aeromexico, Avianca, Etihad, Gulf Air, Kenya Airlines, Kuwait Airways, Thai want to obtain slots at LGW. The only one out of that list that could be Etihad resuming LGW, although I don't personally see them doing so.

Korean Air is awaiting final permission to merge with Asiana and probably wouldn't be looking to resume LGW.

South America isn't so much a growth area as you assume with most of the continent suffering from economic crisis and social problems amongst other things.

With your slight imagination, I'm surprised that you didn't include Aeroflot, Air Koryo, Ariana Afghan Airlines, Conviasa, or even Syrianair.

I personally don't agree with you regarding Air Peace being a done deal at LGW.

Air Peace have made it known very publicly that they won't be flying to London in the near future unless they can obtain slots at LHR. They have mentioned at the same time that they don't intend on initiating service to London if only LGW is available to them. The airline has been proposing a London service for over five years. They have had every opportunity to do so in that time.

In my opinion, the airlines that could possibly land at LGW in the next year or so are.

Air Tanzania... Once they obtain their 3rd B788 in Q2 or Q3 24.

Air Zimbabwe...They have already made it known that they intend on a resumption of Harare to LGW in the near future, but after CAA approval or via an ACMI at first. The airline has recently received it's first B772 at Harare Airport in an all white livery. Another three B772 are set to join the airline in the next few months, which are all ex Malaysian Airlines.

Azul...Quite possibly but pending further A339s being delivered.

Cathay Pacific...Probably, but more than likely not until capacity at LHR has been exhausted, despite your previous comments (dreams) about a definite return in October.

Ghana Airlines... Once they finally get going and an order for long-haul aircraft is placed.

Iraqi Airways... More than likely especially with new aircraft joining the fleet although probably via an ACMI at first.

Nigeria Air... Quite possibly when they finally get an actual airline started which could take several years.

Sri Lanka Airways...Very likely, in my opinion.

TAAG Angola Airlines... When they eventually decide to start, I suppose, who knows what's going on.

Uganda Airlines (After CAA approval and final audit of Entebbe Airport which is due sometime in Q3 24)

Gatwick
 

No it’s not imagination at all!!

All the airlines I have suggested have little or no airport slots at Heathrow, so will obviously look at ways to expand which predominantly will be Gatwick.

I have information from inside the airport and all of these I have suggested are maybes. Also with air peace have you read that they are trying to codeshare with Norse and are trying so hard to gain the right Gatwick slots.

Avianca wanted another daily at Heathrow and they haven’t got it.

obviously Gatwick is near full but there is a 90 percent chance that they will gain a second runway. Yes I have a little too much enthusiasm Sometimes but nothing is out of realms of possibility especially when you see all the airlines that have come to Gatwick in the last year!

Air Pease is far from done and they are NOT looking at codesharing but potentially leasing - Read that fluff piece again, if it were me I’d run a mile or have a YEARS money upfront and CLEARED in the bank !

They have no slots and their colourful “owner” is adamant they DONT want to go to GATWICK !

Iraqi (at leat the IA code) will be back in the UK at some point - Its not reliant on aircraft deliveries on the YI- register through just safe compliance.

I see none of those African “ virtual” carriers anytime soon . And Air Tanzania use of their second 787 is contingent upon what their Chinese masters prioritise- More likely upgrading Dubai than London imho.

TAAG continue to fly leased in aircraft to Porto, Lisboa and Madrid with just 3 of the 77w available at any onetime. Typical daily is 2 Lisbon, 1 Porto and 5 weekly Madrid with Brazil and South Africa filling -imho I very much doubt they have spare capacity anytime soon.
IDK know but surmise they may still be operating under restricted license from CAA/EASA

SriLanka do they not have sufficient slots at Heathrow to cover in excess of daily flights or are they looking at Hambantota with a tour operator perhaps ?

Azul - yes viable

Cathay - Really difficult to measure what with continued pressure on those British overseas passport holders and particularly their finances later in the year.
Its beyond regrettable the current political situation in Hong Kong masked via COVID

It’s being reported about some kind of potential partnership between Air Peace and Norse. https://punchng.com/fg-in-talks-with...london-flight/

Don’t see anything tangible it’s pure fluff, and as I said imho Norse would be advised to get a shed load of money UPFRONT And CLEARED in their bank.

Its hard enough for established businesses to repatriate funds at the best of times Norse need very careful legal financial and risk analysis support !

I am sure there will not be a problem, providing Norse forward the arrangement fees to Nigeria as requested.