Whether it is called capitalism or communisim of ANY -ism, there will always be those who fight or cheat, their way to the top. Making money out of other humans is a fundamental human trait.

https://www.majorcadailybulletin.com...allorca-1.htmlRejected here as unworkable when I suggested this maybe a couple of months ago nevertheless it is gaining support. Yesterday Saga announced it is making it compulsory for all cruise ship passengers to be vaccinated before travel.

Life could get restrictive for those that haven’t been vaccinated or don’t wish to be as I am sure it could be rolled out for other activities.

That's fine for Saga customers, their very target market ensures that by the time the cruise industry is back up and running most of them will have been vaccinated anyway. Spain may well be right to pursue the same course, and I'm sure that, despite being in the EU it would be their prerogative to do so, though I can imagine some squealing and protesting from other EU nations. What's absolutely certain is they could impose vaccine certificates on third country arrivals, of which the UK is now one. This begs another question. At what stage do governments start allowing people to "jump the queue" and get vaccinated in return for a small consideration either through their national (with a small "n") health system, or for private companies to buy up and sell the public vaccinations? To do so will cause an unholy row in the UK, but not to do so would deprive many younger would be customers from booking their 2 weeks in the Spanish sun - cue another unholy outcry from those affected, not to mention the airlines and tour operators.

People jumping the queue so they can have 10 days holiday in Spain is not going to happen

The rollout seems somewhat slow outside the UK.

https://i.imgur.com/DW8ypKX.jpg

But how do you prevent it? Are BUPA, for example, going to be prevented from going along to "Mr. Pfizer" and offering a price that they couldn't refuse for 1 million doses; and would HM Government have the nerve to ban BUPA from importing and selling the stuff in UK? Same for the AZ product, though importing wouldn't figure in that transaction necessarily. AZ have said that they're not going to flog their Covid-19 product for profit, but business is business, and I have a feeling corporate greed would trump corporate ethics; it generally does.

I personally feel that vaccine certificates should be provided to every who is vaccinated, and that people who choose not to take the vaccination when it's offered should expect to suffer in terms of perhaps not being allowed into various countries without quarantine. I'd bet my bottom Dollar that Australia and New Zealand will follow just such a policy and when they reopen to inbound tourism, and it will be in the interests of the travel industry to lobby to allow their potential customers to buy a vaccination, and thus obtain the required certificate, abhorrent as that might be in some circles.

Am pretty sure all of the major vaccine suppliers are bound legally to supply governments first and foremost. Especially those who recieved government grants to aid in the research and development.

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Eventually all those in the U.K that have received a single dose will need a second dose. Who then is going to be carrying out the vaccinations for those that haven’t received their first dose? I can see come mid March that the vaccination programme for first doses will almost grind to a halt as the NHS focuses on the second injection rollout.

That's why it's called ramping up.

In the last week just shy of 2m doses were administered. Another 65 centres are opening this week with more to come and the trialling of 24hr centres, so providing the supply chain can keep up then there's no reason that the second dose should make a massive difference to first dose rollout.

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Doesn't say how you'd prove it

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55738918

Who in their right mind would go on a cruise without being vaccinated after what happened at the start of 2020. The bigger issue is how many countries will accept any sort of British holidaymaker until their own vaccination programmes protects enough locals and whether travel corridors are reopened which seems unlikely anytime soon. If they are then proof of vaccination is bound to be a requirement. It might be the case that ships sail without calling in at any ports.

At the moment the EU nations are lagging big time buried in bureaucracy and inefficiencies while just for once the U.K is well ahead of the curve.

Well, it is sounding more and more likely that we can write this summer off.

When airlines are starting to sell 2022 flights, that tells you all you need to know. The big question for the industry is just how generous is Mr Sunak prepared to be beyond April ?

Brexit is going to be an insignificant rounding error in comparison with COVID let's be honest. There's no comparison here as demand is massively constrained and a lot of people are sitting on a lot of money as a result of home working. Anyone who says they know what summer 21 or 22 will look like is best-guessing as that pent up demand will be released differently depending on the size of the post COVID job losses.

Brexit, which happened over a year ago now, doesn't even register by comparison.

Airlines will have 3-4 different scenarios and that is just for UK routes. There will be demand in summer but what form it takes is anybodys guess.

Denmark is the latest country that says a vaccination passport will be needed in a hard hitting article about the EU rollout published last week. This will not make air travel any easier this year as I assume 2 vaccinations will need to be acquired. As some point the U.K. government is going to have to buy into travel passports.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/bre...ccines-6895862

to date over 50million worldwide have recieved a vaccine. In the U.K. we have hit 5million, and afaik there is no way to “prove” to a third party if you’ve had it or not. I guess it’s all on a computer somewhere but there is certainly nothing like a vaccine certificate being handed out.

I suspect that there'll be a system where if you want proof of vaccination your GP will be able to provide same either digitally or in hard copy - for a fee. Easy money for the GP, highly inconvenient for the travelling punter. And of course it may not just be foreign travel that requires proof of vaccination, given the litigious nature of the UK, would you as a large restaurant or cinema chain take the risk of your insurance premiums rocketing because you haven't taken adequate steps to protect customers from infection? There is a precedent for this, PAT testing, which contrary to what people think is neither a regulation from the EU, nor from the UK government but a requirement of insurers to validate business insurance.

Reading stuff this morning, I really can't see much international leisure travel happening before this Autumn; to be honest I can't see much in the way of holidays happening domestically before the school summer holidays either. I feel really sorry for the millions who don't have a back garden to relax in.

When my parents had their vaccine (yesterday) they were issued with a bit of paper to say that they had had the vaccine and which vaccine it was.
So paperwork is being issued to people at the moment.

We may have hit 5M but only single doses. Listening to a care home manager today, many of his vaccinated in mid December residents are still catching & dying of Covid.
The reports from Israel are also suggesting a single dose of Pfizer may only be 25% effective, not the 55-60% guessed at by UK Gov.
It was always designed to be two doses within 3 weeks-not 12.
Until a significant number have had double doses then I can't see any country allowing Brits into their area. In reality, that is going to take some time, especially if you are waiting 3 months between doses.
For me, any booking if any, will be last minute as it will be impossible to predict anything in the foreseeable future. I would be suprised if that wasn't the majority view.
The jab and go scenario suggested by a certain airline, just isn't going to cut it.

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2021/...he-summer/amp/

Spain saying no to tourists until the end of Summer....

Boris is hinting about strengthening border restrictions so you just know they will be announced next week. With the BBC news showing massive queues in arrivals today at Heathrow an Australian style hotel quarantine is a real possibility. The question then becomes how and when to remove it in a world full of Covid when new strains are being found everyday.

Hotel quarantine for UK arrivals to be discussed https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55774380

By December 2021, it's likely that many of the rich countries of the world will have vaccinated at least 75% of their resident populations. If there are no new major widespread new strains resistant to the current vaccine, then it seems likely borders will loosen significantly over the next 12 months. It would surprise me if Oz, NZ, HK, Taiwan and other countries which are currently super strict continue their current effectively-only-residents-can-enter policy by Jan 2022

I don’t think NZ are planning to open their border until April 2022 because their own vaccine rollout is a lot slower than others. Meanwhile Australia are busy shutting down the whole country for 1 case and sticking people in rat infested hotel rooms for 2 weeks+. Their populations are quite happy for isolation and dirty Johnny Foreigner staying out.

Drawbridges about to be raised in Europe?
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...nair-1.4465649

Meanwhile at Luton Airport a man from Luton has been arrested on suspicion of selling fake coronavirus test certificates.The man in his 30s was detained for fraud by false representation at Luton Airport at around 8pm on Wednesday, 20 January.

It's almost inevitable that much international travel will eventually require a vaccine passport. The only question is whether it will be a physical document or some clever digital certificate.

I thing It's the only way in which the international travel industry will get back on it's feet, but the real game changer will only come when it has been proved that vaccination stops people carrying the virus asymptomatically, and spreading it to others. I imagine that's not going to be sorted out until probably 6 months after vaccinations started, so May / June 2021.

The vaccine does not prevent people catching the virus - it simply reduces the chances of them becoming seriously unwell. Furthermore it only reduces (and does not prevent) them from spreading the disease to others.

Mass international air travel will not resume until the vaccine has been rolled out worldwide and the requirement for testing and quarantine on arrival have been removed. The latter part of this is going to be extremely difficult, since many countries seem to have adopted a 'Covid-Zero' strategy, which is just not compatible with open borders.

The whole thing will take years, as opposed to months to resolve.

I see the short-medium term future as being regional travel areas or travel corridors between countries with agreed Covid protocols. And I think the long-haul business market will probably never fully return since everyone has realised pretty much the same effect can be achieved through MS Teams

To see the size of the problem when it comes to vaccinating the world it is worth looking at the last chart on this vaccination list. I suspect come Christmas most of the countries on this list will not have vaccinated even 5% of their population.

https://www.politico.eu/article/coro...y-the-numbers/

Internation travel is dead until 2022, lets not kid ourselves that vaccine will sort out everything. Even with mega roll outs it will be September / October before any reasonable assessment will be valid. Any new variants will set that back.

One already carrie around a mobile phone that accurately and uniquely identifies one's location on the planet. One pays electronically for goods that allow companies to know both one's purchasing and consumption habits. One's passport is already a 'clever digital certificate'. Everyone who is a member of society has a data footprint - an additional parameter within that data set indicating whether one has been vaccinated is not going to change much.

"International travel is dead until 2022, lets not kid ourselves that vaccine will sort out everything"

Sadly, I very much agree.

Another nuance of the current vaccines is that while they have proven efficacy in symptomatic Covid-19, the jury is very much out on whether they protect against asymptomatic Covid-19 - in fact the limited evidence suggests they do not. The concern around this is that a vaccinated person who suffers mild symptoms or is asymptomatic will still be infectious. Whilst this not a problem in a vaccinated population, it very much is if travelling within a vulnerable un-vaccinated one.

LeChiffre

I believe the jury is still out regarding if, and how much protection the vaccines offer in terms of transmission of the virus. Were it to be found that it does hinder or better still prevent transmission then foreign travel could open up more quickly.

Is the Jury still out ?
Even the Government advisors are now begging people who have had the vaccine to keeep to the Lockdown restrictions - why ? because they still do not know wether a vaccinated person will still pass on the virus ? It will protect them but possibly not stop them passing it to others - answer things are never going to get back to normal until everyone in the UK is vaccinated. Even then other countries lagging behind who may want our tourism will still be hit because our Government probably still wont want us to go there ?

What is the answer ? when England can vaccinate 400,000 per day and that number is growing, they have vaccinated 5.8 million people so far ! Then take Scotland they have only vaccinated 360,000 in TOTAL - thats less than England in one day ? Scotland are already lagging behind. What country might you be wanting to travel to and how far behind are they ?

On top of this the Government are wanting to introduce harsher International Travel measures (announcement on Tuesday coming). Schools probably not going back until Easter, Pubs and restaurants possibly not opening until July 17th - just more nails in the Travel industry Coffin. I know the travel industry needs to survive and believe I want them to, but soon I think they are all going to have to call it a day for Summer 2021 ? It's not looking good at present unless we see a miracle.

Back in July the UK rejected the offer by the EU of joining the EU's vaccination scheme, which was condemned by many at the time as putting politics before the health of the nation. The UK got in first and put in its orders which was the best move this government has made since winning the election. Maybe the only good move.

Coronavirus: Boris Johnson rejects place on EU’s vaccine scheme | The Independent | The Independent

The speed of the roll-out scheme in Europe isn't going at all well in part due to the time vaccines take to get approved, delays in putting the orders in, delays at the national level for the delivery of the vaccines and a shortage of supplies, all of which the UK seems to have avoided.

For us in the UK, to get to go on a weeks holiday in the summer on the Mediterranean, we need somewhere that will be open to the British, with high levels of vaccinations carried out and everywhere with low case numbers. Apart from Gibraltar, which has vaccinated 30% of its tiny population Europe is struggling to hit 2% at the moment. Europe needs to raise its game but in the next few weeks it isn't going to happen. The question then becomes how many airlines will get through the summer.

https://i.imgur.com/Te7t8ER.jpg

Yes the EU’s effort so far has been pathetic and with significant supply problems with the Pfizer vaccine, it’s not going to improve in the coming months. And with the AZ vaccine not yet approved by the EMA it is even worse.

Our elected officials love to do international comparisons - vaccine nationalism doesn’t help anyone. Someone show them the death figures.

Our industry cannot recover until everyone is vaccinated. It is pointless if we cannot travel anywhere outside of our own country.

Talk in the papers today about Australian style quarantines. Another nail in the travel industry’s coffin. Time for monetary support - you cannot avoid this industry any longer.

Seriously guys, who gives a flying flip about air travel this year? Write off 2021. It's the year we were busy fighting back. We'd all be pleased just to leave the front door in our own country come Autumn (by which we should've vaccinated everyone in the country), forget holidaying.

Errr... people who rely on this industry for employment? I do find it amazing on this forum the number of people who seem to revel in people's employment being curtailed.

Sorry, that came out wrong. Of course that's true, its true for me too. I'm lucky I've pivoted ever so slightly to keep me going because there's no point in chasing a false dream this year.

So as the virus is hopefully suppressed by vaccination the Tiers will come back into force. Schools will open first with pubs and restaurants at the end of the queue but hopefully open maybe in May or June. Air travel isn’t going to come back anytime soon until it is established that those that are vaccinated cannot get infected with new variants of the virus. If they can get reinfected why would governments relax travel restrictions? Then there is the question of countries like France where half the population has said they won’t take the vaccination. So how will France open up?

https://i.imgur.com/cIoMUFt.jpg

Let's be clear here (UK-centric view): this government will never again permit foreign holidays. The travel, tourism, leisure and hospitality sectors in the UK are gone for good. The freedoms which were previously taken for granted are never coming back.

There will be no state support forthcoming. All travel companies and airlines will be allowed to fail. There will be no UK aviation industry in 2022.