Garstag, they certainly do - which is why I put my post in to reply to your earlier comment. They have been operating the route since last year; & ever since they started, I have been waiting for BEE to pull off the route. Now, they have !

Gloating over the demise of Flybe is highly inappropriate not to mention tactless
But you've wantef thay to happen for a long time have'nt you

What on earth makes you say that ? I bare ,nor have I ever done, no I’ll will towards BEE whatsoever. I merely commented on the fact that EZY moving in on the Manchester - Jersey route made me expect that BEE would not be able to compete; & that I would have expected them to have to abandon it , that’s all. Now they have; & not necessarily because they could not compete with EZY. I have professional & personal relationships with BEE that go right back to the days of Intra Airways. I have never had any issues with them whatsoever. I simply comment on situations as I see them. I am in no way gloating over the situation. I am deeply saddened that you have taken such comments to indicate that I bore them any kind of malice. Please enlighten me as to where you get your inspiration for your comment.

To be fair, I also read your comment as distasteful whether you meant it that way or not.

“ I have been waiting for BEE to pull off the route. Now, they have ! “

Not that you need me to clarify but BE didn’t pull
off the route, they went out of business. Two very different things. Pulling off a route is a voluntary decision, closing the business down wasn’t.

Well, this is a lesson to me in how someone can find offence in something that was meant without any intention of causing offence. All that I was trying to say was that I was expecting BEE to find the competition from EZY on the Manchester route to be too strong to withstand. The other comment about BEE pulling off the route was meant to acknowledge the irony that they had now done this- but involuntarily. There was never any intention to appear to be gloating over what has happened, or of wanting it to happen. The whole commentary was meant to convey to garstag that there was little prospect of BCI operating the same route in competition with an airline of EZY’s strength. And that alone. If I have caused offence, I apologize for having posted something that could be taken that way. I repeat, that was never the intention. However, this episode has illustrated to me that one’s best intentions can be misconstrued quite easily, perhaps the more so if someone is of a mindset to identify another person’s comments as worthy of an interpretation that was never intended ; or even thought of as likely to be understood in that manner.

I’m not easily offended I just found it distasteful - there’s a difference. However your explanation I am sure will be appreciated

The problem we all face is that typed comments are simply read by others rather than heard in a particular tone of voice. The same comment heard vocally would indicate the inner feelings of the person who had made it. When I read the comment some have taken exception to, I did not detect any gloating over the demise of Flybe but rather irony. The comment had nothing to do with Flybe employees who had been made redundant overnight.
Regular readers of this forum soon form an idea of the posters and can detect trolls and those out to gloat. The comments of kcockayne fall into neither of these categories. While care is needed in posting comments, it is impossible in debates of this kind to completely avoid being misunderstood. Our interpretations can be very subjective. The fact that an apology was quickly offered proves the genuineness of the poster. (Trolls never apologize.) Surely most of us are genuinely sorry for those working at the coal-face who have been badly let down by their employers. We wish Blue Islands and other carriers every success and hope those out of work through the Flybe calamity will soon fare rather better.

Everything I would have written myself Gurnard! Well said.

Liverpool is an easier airport to use anyway, you would be off the plane and out the door and still taxing at Manchester.

Thank you for your comments, Gurnard, they are greatly appreciated. I can tell you that I was devastated that someone had put the connotation which they had on my original comments. That was why I apologized - I had no wish or intention to upset anyone. I am a genuine contributor with a lifetime of professional & personal interest in aviation , hopefully, my comments are taken as they are intended. It is good to discover that you & others accept my sincerity & best intentions. I only hope that any others can accept my genuineness. Thank you again.

You're most welcome. I can see that your past contributions have been thoughtful as well as informative. Reading some folk's comments, it is evident that they rush into things and express themselves carelessly without reading what they have written. If we were to pick them up on their unpunctuated comments and misspelt words, they would probably take great exception! Let's keep up the helpful dialogue. Those with a professional and personal interest in aviation matters stand out from the folk on the other side who struggle to offer anything really worthwhile.

Ladies and or gents, please. Each and everyone is entitled to an opinion. Just because you both share yours does not make anyone else wrong so time to cut the attitude. Let’s move on to something related to the airline in the title of the thread shall we?

Blue Islands to start Exeter-Manchester in mid April, multiple flights daily.

Would that be a through-service to the Channel Islands as well?

Not sure but they will be operating to Jersey from Exeter, they are also setting up a base at Exeter with full maintenance facilities for their ATR fleet.

Could be the making of BCI - if they get it right. Or, it could make things even worse for them. Time will tell.

Newquay to London would surely suit them, especially if the PSO gets retendered. They could be Air Southwest Mk II

BCI only have 5 aircraft, and I suspect with the recent/rapid expansion they may be quite busy! (for what is still the Winter season)

PSO funding may enable them to expand, but I suspect an ATR might not be welcome at LHR?

No but other London airports are available including LGW where it was moving to anyway and which seems to be the local preference. And LCY for that matter, the Dundee PSO has got in there.

I guess the only issue is that the PSO doesn’t come with slots, the operator needs to source them.

That might be possible in the short term at LGW as I expect the reduction in flying may mean airlines would be happy to find a home for these given the COVID issues.

With no codeshares, how will they sustain the Exeter-Manchester service?

Seems they are going at it with half (or less) the capacity that BEE had on the route, so a measured approach which is wise in the current circumstances.

The bigger picture
 

It’s easy to be distracted by the fall out from the unfortunate demise of Flybe and the subsequent scramble to back fill routes. But the reality of the present crisis is much more profound for aviation and - in context of the Southampton area - for the Cruise Industry too.

Among the many announcements over the past ten days was the statement by the Delta Airlines CEO in which he said that demand is not expected to return for 18 months. Of course, none of us know, but we do have some precedent with both the global financial crisis of 2008/9 and 9/11. 18 months from now is the beginning to the winter schedule 21/22, so the reality is more likely to be a return to normality for the summer 2022 season. In the meantime, buckle up.

For the south coast, BOH in 2019 had recovered only about 80% of its previous peak passenger throughput which was in 2007! Meanwhile SOU, until fairly recently, doing better, had peaked a year or two prior to 2019. So what is a likely outcome?

For the UK as a whole, a reasonable estimate of the impact in 2020, is a 25% annual fall in passenger numbers for 2020, 20m wiped from LHR, 11m from Gatwick and so on. On current indications, it is also likely that more airlines will go under. In simple terms, those with cash in the bank and relatively manageable debt will probably come out of this stronger. That means IAG and Ryanair, perhaps even easyJet, but the latter has picked a very bad year to launch its inclusive holiday business.

In the meantime, all airlines (and airports) are in a cash preserving mode, cutting costs wherever they can. Staff will go, projects will be deferred or cancelled, at least until there is more clarity about revenue normalising again. The airport owners - usually Pension Funds and Infrastructure investors - look for consistent returns, when revenue falls, that means cost cutting.

Pressure on London runway slots and airspace will ease, the need for airlines to move into the UK regions to deliver growth has probably moved right by 3 years, and for easyjet the recently acquired Thomas Cook slots at LGW and BRS are in its back pocket for growth when it does return.

So where does that leave SOU expansion plans?

In my view there is no doubt that planning permission for the runway extension is much more likely to get the green light now, planners will need to be seen to support economic growth, there will be environmental requirements, but it will be approved. But, the airport owners are much less likely to be ready to spend the money on development. Why? Because the value of the (all) airports, has just taken a big hit, money will be spent only when there is a reasonable basis that it will deliver a return through increased traffic, or the value of the airport.

So, for the next 2-3 years staying in business will be the key objective for all airports, especially the regions.

FF

A balanced post.

Although some of the lost demand will most likely bounce back after this crisis is over - some of that 'demand' may never return. The demand that may never recover is domestic UK or air travel which has an environmental impact far outweighing the economic benefit. UK domestic is not an area that anyone should be investing in, certainly not on a big scale.

The evolution of UK aviation to date clearly shows a move away from it, corona is simlpy speeding this up.

Flitefone -

One of the best and most thoughtful posts I have read. Thank you for your considered input. Unsurprisingly, I agree with most of what you say.

LGS

Due to the Covid crisis Blue have grounded all GCI flights until further notice

https://guernseypress.com/news/2020/...t-of-guernsey/

A week ago, I said buckle up, now its time to hold on tight, this is going to be very severe turbulence.

FF

The Blue Islands Monday / Wednesday / Friday Jersey to Southampton service seems to be fairly busy. Designated by GOJ as essential workers and medical travel only, the route is also reportedly subsidised by GOJ.

Reported on the LGW thread BI are also starting to operate a once weekly flight Jersey - Gatwick on a Tuesday again for essential travel only, assume this is also subsidised by GOJ.

The Southampton thread has also mentioned BI's planned expansion (no doubt post crisis) into the U.K market with 3x SOU - MAN daily and a 2x EXT - MAN daily. The little airline from the rock certainly seems to be trying its best to adapt and overcome this current crisis! Unfortunately for both BI and AUR the SOG seem to have a restriction in place until the end of August for travel off island, this will no doubt hamper BI planned return and normal ops for a little while.

In the ACL report for Dublin for the upcoming winter season Blue Islands have been awarded 28 slots, presume this application is with Exeter (or maybe Southampton) in mind rather than the Channel Islands

I'd probably say Exeter is the most likely candidate.

Would they give EXT-BHD a go. Worked well for BE for many years

The Dublin slots are for a Southampton - Dublin service, I forgot that further down the report it gives details of new routes etc

With Jersey opening up tomorrow to some flights anyone have an idea what Blue islands will attempt to fly over July /August?

https://www.itv.com/news/channel/202...eys-government

Blue Islands gets a £10m loan from the Jersey Government and will become the main carrier for Jersey.

So does this mean they are leaving routes out of GCI (primarily SOU) to AUR?

Well, the article says "focus its operations in Jersey" so potentially could impact on plans for EXT and SOU as well?

I wonder if a name change is in the offing to reflect it's new Jersey home?
Are RV & his fellow management minions all moving to JER too does anyone know?

Maybe Jersey European?

The ITV Channel Island news piece about it was very vague - mentioned keeping the Guernsey routes, no mention of the new UK routes from Southampton and Exeter and also the only "new routes" mentioned were from Jersey to Birmingham and Exeter - which is hardly taking over "most of the former Flybe routes"

Does Blue Islands already have a base at Jersey