didn’t guern123 claim to have some inside knowledge awhile back?

That leaves just JER & SOU served direct from GCI soI wouldn't be surprised to see a downsizing of the fleet before too long.
I don't think a daily SEN was viable year round, however it seemed to do ok in the summer with an average load of about 75% I was told,
LPL was a non starter from the beginning I think - full marks to them for trying tho.

A fair point, but Blue Island are in a bad way. Moreover, their owner is ill & not , apparently, showing any real interest in keeping the company going. This decision on the Southend & Liverpool routes just goes to prove this - they can’t afford to keep them going. This was a point I made in this forum at the time that the company announced the inauguration of these routes. I regret having been proved right, but it was obvious that neither route was a money earner. There are very few, if any, routes from Guernsey, in particular, which any airline can make a profit on. This should be borne in mind when the States take their decision regarding extending the runway ; to attract low cost carriers. It is almost certain that there will be no LCCs interested, regardless of an extended runway. Hope I am wrong on all of this !

I agree, i was delighted to hear last year when GCI-SEN flights were announced, especially as i live very close to Southend airport and i have been visiting Guernsey for 30 years to see friends there. However i did think that a daily service even in the Summer was to much capacity and certainly not in the winter months, it should have been about 3-4 flights a week and only April to October, then it might have worked.

I’m a bit lost of LON-GCI now. Last year there was a flurry of activity with the new LHR and SEN routes, but then rumours of the end of STN.

So SEN has gone. Is STN staying, or has that been dropped? If it’s been dropped, might that now be reconsidered? Has LHR gone?

Really? Loads in August on LPL -GUE were 86% in August and 75% in September. Not bad for first year of operating.

Now, this is interesting info. If correct, I will have to revise my opinion. I am not averse to doing this in the possible knowledge that your figures are correct. At the moment , I maintain what I have said, but as a Guernseyman I would wish that the island is attractive enough to sustain a viable number & frequency of routes. These figures provide some, possible, hope of that.

From what I heard / read Blue Islands were pretty pleased with their first year on GCI to LPL and indicated they wou!d be back for 2020.

CAA stats for last summer GCI-LPL - June 644, July 766, Aug 1032, Sept 404.

The last three posts do provide support for the case to continue these services. Why then is the airline closing the routes ? Surely, this must be because they can’t run them profitably. Armed with the figures provided above, one has to ask why this should be the case.

Looking on FlightRadar last night, G-ISLK has been in MGL since December 7, I know it's a maintenance facility but is it normal for an aircraft to be there so long?

Just wondering as G-ISLI which left the fleet last March is stored there.

Also, I see the weekly Gronngen charter for 2020 is extended to run from end April until mid-August, and they are also down for operating a weekly charter between Vienna and Jersey on Thursdays for 8 weeks May - July

yes I did. Last year I said they were for sale which they denied then the recent court case proved they were up for sale. Having contacts at BI helps

Guernsey - Southend has gone (That was a Blue Islands Route)
Guernsey - Heathrow has gone (That was a Flybe route)

Obviously Guernsey - Gatwick remains (Aurigny route) and will gain from the loss of the Heathrow route.
Guernsey - Stansted remains (Aurigny route) and will gain from the loss of the Southend route


I guess the Guernsey - Manchester (Aurigny route) will also gain from the loss of the Guernsey - Liverpool service (Blue Islands route)

Is LHR definitely going?

So it’s back to the status quo from prior to last summer. Probably more sustainable, I should have made use of the lowish fares while they were available

Seems such a shame all these new routes came in and just destabilised the marketplace. Mr Parkinson was hailing this an 'open skies' success! Yet all he has done is spent tax payers money on bringing new routes in and creating more losses for the states owned Aurigny - BONKERS!
Back to the Status Quo! Ironic they wrote a song called 'paper plane'!

As i already stated previously the Southend service could have worked well if Blue Islands had got the schedules right, starting a new route as we all know takes time to get established and in my humble opinion BI were to ambitious in starting a 7 days a week service during the summer and incredibly 5 days a week in the quiet winter months. For its first year 3-4 flights a week in the summer and no winter flights would probably have meant it would have been a viable service and it would have still been on sale for summer 2020.

I think the stats show there is demand for a summer SEN-GCI service but not winter. My wife and I did a weekend break in December, flying from Southend and I don’t think there were more than a dozen of us on each flight. Aurigny or Stobart/Connect Could perhaps give it a go.

No wonder they were in trouble, they advertised LPL-GCI in Essex newspapers and London routes on Merseyside.Something wrong in management!:ugh:

Sorry... but a load of tosh.... the Heathrow subsidy has not de-stabilised the market. Last night, the Aurigny's Gatwick - Guernsey flights were showing full and then just two days ago were showing 1 seat here and 2 seats there. The Embraer is out of action and just four flights using ATRs obviously showed a lack of capacity. Even so, the Heathrow Flybe service was the busiest I have seen... but still with a dozen seats empty !

If you want to look at what has destabilized the market... look at Aurigny's entry into GCI-SOU and GCI-JER : fares have tumbled and pax numbers have rocketed !

Totally agree !

Depends how much BI were being paid to operate into Southend and when any subsidy stopped post route introduction?

IF Blue Islands said it wasn't profitable why are Flybe going to run it ?

appears bi definitely scaling back scheduled routes or franchise with flybe ending

https://gov.gg/article/176053/Econom...be-discussions

Good news, but I would guess that BEE will not replicate the frequency that Blue Islands operated .

Didn’t someone mention that it would be 2x per week to Jersey and is bookable through to guernsey using Blue Islands as the feeder by the looks of things.
One wonders if the SEN route would be more viable now that Heathrow’s gone. Genuine low cost alternative to London and a total of 39000 pax potentially up for grabs now with neither SEN or LHR.
Obviously SEN doesn’t have the connections that LHR does but less capacity across the S.East to compete with

So what now for Blue Islands? No Flybe will they successfully go it alone?

Yes, Derek Coates permitting, BCI will continue to "go it alone". Indeed, BEE's demise opens up opportunities for them to expand. Heaven knows they need some more profitable routes! But, such expansion carries risks & must be handled effectively. They are already operating to Exeter & Birmingham - although this might only be short term. There is the announcement that they will, apparently, be operating these two routes in competition with AUR - although, AUR will only be operating them from Guernsey - which will certainly threaten the viability for both airlines. Maybe this is just part of the general confusion in the aftermath of BEE's failure & both airlines will be a little more realistic in the coming days. Certainly, there is no room for competition on most of BEE's old routes.

Looks like Jersey - Exeter is up to 5 times per week and Jersey - Birmingham goes daily and then seems to settle at 6 per week. Neither are showing as being avalable from Guernsey via Jersey at the moment

Oddly, Guernsey - Southend is showing up now, I am sure it wasn't earlier. The flights are blocked off as full but it just seemed odd for it to show up in the system?

Confirmed today that Blueislands will be launching flights from Birmingham and Exeter to Jersey starting from 12th March. Initially from Exeter flights will be Tues, Weds, Fri-Sun increasing to Tues to Sun during peak summer. Birmingham gets a daily service from the start.

I've just had a look and you can go to BHX from GCI out on a Friday back on a Sunday which will do me.

the pax loads were predominantly jersey bound, the few for Guernsey will be served by the ever loss making (state owned) Aurigny

Do you think Blue Islands will take on the Jersey - Manchester route or

The problem with Jersey - Manchester is currently EasyJet offers such cheap fares between Liverpool and Jersey it would be difficult to compete.

Even more of a problem is that EZY already operates Manchester - Jersey. BEE clung on to the route despite this, but I can’t see BCI starting up such a service with EZY already incumbent; & probably expanding the service now that BEE have gone.

Easyjet doesn’t fly between Manchester and Jersey, I flew frequently from Manchester to Jersey (Flybe) and Guernsey (Aurigny)

According to the EZY booking engine they do!

Yes, they do

EasyJet started Manchester - Jersey towards the end of last year, it's only twice per week from memory but as Jersey has Liverpool and also had routes like DSA they've never been as reliant on Manchester as Guernsey.

apologies... EasyJet do fly, however Flybe was a daily service not just two/three days a week.. hopefully they’ll increase the frequency