Derry/Londonderry 2
 

City of Derry in news again.

https://www.derrynow.com/news/money-...ed-back/186001

Anyways... Ryanair grounds Belfast flights for four months - BBC News Good reason for BMI to start a third rotation?

I flew BMI on friday to STN. Great flight, only one cabin attendant but very friendly, and free drink. Counted 40 of the 49 seats full. Feel if BMI can sort out the price of the seats booked within 2 weeks of departure and weekend prices they could see 90+% load factors

STN rather than STD.

Why Thank you :ok:

I reckon that if Flybmi leased a 737 and got the pricing right they would fill the 2 flights a day on the Derry - STN route.

Which they won't do especially considering it's a PSO route.

Does anyone know if the particulars of the PSO contract limit the size of aircraft that can be used?

There is no aircraft size limit, as bmi themselves have used larger aircraft on the route at times when the E145 is not available.

What aircraft would that be?

ERJ170-100..

I've heard that BMI Regional have been looking to up size in the regional aircraft market. E170/175, E190/195, SSJ have all been looked as possible additions to the fleet.

We're only talking a few aircraft and nothing bigger. BMI Regional operate in very niche markets. I'd say E170/175 are more likely as would be more compatible with the existing fleet.

Delay in £7m funding for City of Derry airport - BBC News Anyone any idea how this 2.5 mil for route development would be spent? Would it be similar to the PSO where a carrier gets thrown wonga to operate a route for 2 years then pull out?

Any word on how the one-off Seville Trip in March 2018 is selling?

https://www.derryjournal.com/news/bu...ched-1-8226220

Looks like FR have increased the LDY- LPL service to 3 x weekly across the summer schedule. Still a dismal frequency for this flight which should be daily, if not double daily on some days.

Really Dismal, was spotting at LDY yesterday and if it wasn't for a LJ35 my time wouldn't have been worthwhile. A good direction would maybe be Flybe through their franchise with Stobart, maybe a based E195 to operate BHX/MAN etc. Just my opinion.

I don't think that Ryanair is suited to operate domestic services from LDY. Clearly the demand isn't there for substantial B738 operations, but I do think that Flybe could make some routes work. Daily Q400 services to BHX, GLA, LCY, LPL, MAN would be beneficial to the business community, though Flybe wouldn't want to dilute their passenger numbers from BHD. I can't see the E195 being used - it's simply too big for the market - and given Flybe's financial situation, a base at LDY would be very unlikely.

If my memory is correct Aer Arran tried to launch 2 or 3 routes maybe 5 years ago from Derry and the routes where scrapped before they even took off so they must have seen there wasn’t demand for a regional airline operating regularly all day. Flybe also tried MAN and that didn’t last either.
What LDY needs is local tour operators pushing for more charter flights in the summer and winter where the loads are guaranteed

Load factors tend to be very good actually. Frequencies have increased again to LPL for the summer and even after they scraped the STN and FAO route they said they were still here for the long run. Another thing is that the FAO flights are not bookable from BFS this year. No announcement but interesting.

Loads have always been good to LPL and GLA. Yield is another thing, but with some of the prices I’ve seen as well as short sectors, I’m sure FR are doing alright out of the pair.

FAO always did well too, and I was surprised when they binned it.

That's why the Franchise operation would work. No real financial bearing on Flybe, just the name on the plane and the routes on their website with a financial kick-back. A setup like what Stobart are going for in Southend and potentially Carlisle. Maybe a E195 was a bit too much considering their situation. BHX was talked about a while ago (2 or so years ago) but it was never heard of again from Flybe. I personally think Ryanair should promote LDY widely across NI. If Ryanair were to pull GLA and LPL and move them to BFS then they will be in for a culture shock with competition from Easyjet. The Domestic UK services that Ryanair operate are much better suited to LDY as realistically they can still pull loads from Antrim for the lower fares and also the Northwest of island thus keeping the local customer in the Londonderry area from going to Easyjet. That's my view anyway. Keep in mind the Franchise agreement explanation was very vague but the essential idea of how it can be integrated into the NW through a base like Stobart have in the Isle of Mann could be used.

Load factors may be good, but realistically for domestic services you need at least daily flights, preferably x2 daily or more. Ryanair would never be able to sustain daily B738 operations to GLA or LPL. Ryanair may be in LDY for the long run, but a lot of people would prefer to have the ability to return home on the same day, or to at least be able to choose to fly any day.

Perhaps Stobart's ATR 42s would be a good fit. That would allow for double daily flights, without flooding the market.

I find it highly unlikely that FR are attracting passengers for their LDY services from the likes of Antrim. Lower fares than from BFS or BHD won't attract them because a) LDY is a pain to get to, and b) most people want multiple flights a day. Only people who live close to the airport will forgo choice of when to travel.

New charter destinations
 

Well the Seville charter in March must be doing OK as "Super Break" have announced two further charter destinations from CODA.

https://nitravelnews.com/news/super-break-launches-new-packages-direct-from-northern-ireland/

Montenegro and Croatia in October

Iceland in January 2019. (Not Reykjavik but the north of Iceland).

Akuyeri is a fantastic spot and not far from Husavik, where guaranteed whale-watching can be had. Also, northern lights are much, much more likely in the north. Fantastic country.

For those interested, final year passenger numbers for LDY routes are as follows;

Glasgow - 84,968 (+5.3%)
Stansted - 54,736 (-53.1%)
Liverpool - 52,326 (-35.7%)
Palma de Mallorca - 2,250 (NEW)

The total passenger number for 2017 was 194,280 (-33.2%), which is the airport's lowest annual figure since 2001. The airport also exhibited the largest annual percentage fall in passenger numbers across all UK airports in 2017.

2018 scheduled seats for sale by route are as follows;

GLA: 97,524
LPL: 66,528
STN: 66,248
PMI: 2,646

This gives a total of 232,946 seats for sale in 2018, meaning the airport should handle just over 200,000 passengers this year.

Clearly LDY management need to attract more routes and airlines as soon as possible, as these dire figures beg the question whether it is sustainable to run an airport that handles so few passengers.

I think it's the airports management that should be question. Gauging from recent social media posts there is clearly a large demand for new services from CODA. I always wonder is it the presence of Ryanair that scare the smaller regional carries into coming in. Is it a case that CODA need to sever ties with ryanair to let a knew carrier pick and choose what routes they want to operate?

A post on this thread on 29th January (which has since disappeared) mentioned a Facebook page about "Irelair Ltd" who are supposed interested in CODA.

https://www.facebook.com/IrelAir/

I have no further details other than what the Facebook page states but there is a company registration of the same name.

https://suite.endole.co.uk/insight/c...70-irelair-ltd

As I've said continuously on this thread, Ryanair are quite simply ill-suited for LDY domestic operations. In order to make LDY a sustainable operation, there needs to be frequent links to major UK cities. x3 weekly on a domestic route is simply not good enough for business travellers, and they will opt instead for BFS or BHD. Ryanair axing STN has allowed for a much more convenient and business-friendly operation to commence, and I think the same would happen if Ryanair axed GLA and LPL. If Ryanair want to remain at LDY, they should look instead at the leisure market, where their business model is better suited.


I severely doubt anything will come of this The lack of any information about this project from the airport management puts the authenticity of this in doubt, as well as the completely unprofessional way in which it seems to be run. Also, the name 'Irelair' is simply awful.

I had been keeping an eye on their posts throughout the week. From what I've read they are planning on dry leasing their aircraft and are currently in correspondence with 2 leasing companies. However from what I've ascertained they are a husband and wife team with no experience in running an airline. I suspect they are possibly the same guys who are behind the 'save city of derry airport' page and now that interest has started to die out they are using this as a new way of generating publicity. Although I'm in no doubt IrelAir will not take off (pardon the pun) it only goes to show the level of interest in the airport and the desire from the public for new routes with one of their posts alone being shared 1.5 thousand times and nearly 3 thousand comments.

Has anyone heard any word on BMI picking up a route between their morning and afternoon London departures. I remember there was chat around June last year regarding this. It seems like an awful waste having an airplane sitting idle for so long throughout the day. I understand their fares would most likely be extortionate but with the loads they obtain on many of their other routes being so low surely they could fill 25 seats on a UK route and still make a profit?

A320.b744

Any idea what the load factors were on each of these routes?

GLA - 85.1%
LPL - 86.1%
STN - 91.0% (January-March), 73.3% (May-December)
PMI - 85.0%

To compare, Ryanair's average load factor in 2017 was 94%, and bmi Regional's was approx 55%. PMI is operated on behalf of TUI, whose average load factor in 2017 was 95%.

I'm not believing the IrelAir stuff either but they're not the folks from the Save City of Derry Airport Facebook page. They are based in LPL but they are Derry/Londonderry natives. I throw figures and stats through to the Save City of Derry Airport campaign and we were talking about the Irelair stuff but they are staying muted on it because as much as we want it... we won't get it. BMI are wasting the aircraft, LDY-BHX would be ideal as they have a base at BHX and that would aid aircraft swaps etc... I can't remember the load factors on the LDY-BHX route when Ryanair operated it but from memory it ran 4 times a week and got 85ish%+. Keep in mind that was 4 years ago now so I could be wrong.

BHX - LDY
 

Fly757X

Source: CAA

2014 42230 passengers, flights 335 - 126 pax average 67%

2013 52270 passengers, flights 424 - 123 pax average 65%

2012 55096 passengers, flights 418 - 132 pax - average 70%

I would say high summer 80% and winter 50-60% load factors.

Rumour has it Flybe, VLM, Stobart and BMI Regional have all looked at this in the past after Ryanair ceased and originally 3 have walked away for one reason or another.

This is a route that has potential but only with the right amount of support and hence the reluctance I believe although not totally ruled out as far as I am aware and without getting 2+2 to = 5, I suggest BMIR are more likely than Stobart and I assume Flybe would want a wad a cash from the LDY end

Cheers mate, never realised they were so low. Many thanks :D

The trouble with CODA is that it requires outside-the-box strategy to survive. Instead it is run like a Council project. Councils and airports are uneasy bedfellows. I'd bet my shirt that all the appropriate players have looked at routes from LDY. I'd say the real killer is yield rather than just numbers. The NI market is particularly fickle on that front.

I think part of the problem is that the people with the capacity to market such a route aren't the same people as the ones with planes the right size to operate it :-(

FAO was probably due to the new base in BFS and Ryanair wanting to centralise their operation around it. As the FAO-BFS-FAO sectors are operated by FAO based crew it would leave little room to fit in a LDY sector.

I would use the airport, but i'm not fussed on the size of the planes, the cabin is small. The prices also leave a lot to be desired.

I'd agree on the Stansted flights that the plain is small but for me its handy and I much rather support my local airport than drive to Belfast. I just booked Derry to Glasgow for next week as I'm heading to Edinburgh for £26 return. An hour and a half journey on the other side but I'd be doing at least that trying to get to Belfast mid day with our God awful road network.

LPL-LDY-LPL for winter 2018/2019 has retained it's current schedule.