Don't you remember the protests before Narita was finally opened?

Normally, this Govt does not like the courts but they must be delighted that the courts have solved this voting problem for them!

Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP
@grantshapps
·
Airport expansion is core to boosting global connectivity. We also take seriously our commitment to the environment. This Govt won't appeal today's judgement given our manifesto makes clear any #Heathrow expansion will be industry led.

----------------------------------------------------
Without Government help - they are NOT going to appeal - sounds like a dead duck TBH....................

Can't seem them getting anywhere with that, given the Govt have stated they won't be appealing, which isn't surprising given Bozo Boris was against it anyway.

I think 3rd runway is now dead and buried in reality.

As mentioned above, taxiway work to allow northern runway ops, plus south tunnel, and T2A expansion to eventually allow T3 demo by early 2030's will be where their money will now be going.

They cant - the appeal that granted permission, dated 2 February 2017, had a condition that that had to commence no later than 3 years after the decision date. Bit of an own goal, perhaps!

http://planning.hillingdon.gov.uk/Oc....pdf&module=pl

Ooops.........:ugh:

Not necessarily true. Yes, they had to start within three years of the decision but if they have dug a hole somewhere in connection to the above planning permission then they are fine.

Works needs to have started but the amount of work is not specified.

All they need to do is re submit the application to Hillingdon, and it will be accepted as it has passed to the appeal stage. The only reason why HAL will delay again is that the residents of Cranford will suffer a huge unacceptable noise burden, likewise in adjoining boroughs, which is what will happen should R3 go ahead. Easterly ops form 4.30am continously to 12 midnight on one runway.
Extant planning permissions can be revived, a common practice.

The 3rd runway is dead as a dodo.

HAL may go through the motions but there will be zero government appetite in terms of funding.

Latest estimates from IAG were £32bn. MPs who supported this were told by failing Grayling and the idiots in Whitehall it would not cost the taxpayer anything. That said I'm
not even sure he knew the figures himself , such was the level of incompetence.

Under these revised circumstances I cannot see any way the government would have any interest to fund to what has been a gravytrain of spend in the SE

LHR3 and Mr Hacker ....RIP.

What does this mean for Gatwick?

Hopefully this will bring about further route development and infrastructure investment in regional airport connectivity!

may run into the same issue re 2050 Emmissions

I presume BA are in the market for a few pre-owned 380's right now.............

Of course you could fix the problem by stopping people interlining at LHR - save 30% of the passenger movements............. :E

It's unlikely to make much difference - nobody seriously expected an expanded Heathrow to boost connectivity with the regions.

In fact some forecasts predicted that, even with R3, there would be fewer domestic routes from LHR than there are today.

Do bore holes made for soil sampling count? If so, then quite a few of these were made either last year of perhaps the year before. For a few weeks there was machinery doing the drilling in the park area south of Bath Rd up to the M25. The people doing the drilling told me it was part of preparatory work for the 3rd runway, although I was a bit doubtful as the area being drilled was slightly to the south of approach to 09L.

How many here remember Tomorrow's World? I remember a feature on that programme one night which went along the lines of "Air traffic will grow hugely so there will be a need for bigger aircraft, flying more people on fewer flights operated on a Hub and Spoke basis". I wonder if somebody who was destined later in life to be in a position at Airbus to convince them that there was an absolute cast iron case for a larger aircraft and could we call it something the A380?
There was an "expert" on Radio 4 yesterday, pontificating on all the inns and outs of Heathrow expansion, alternative arrangements etc. I was only half listening so it was was only background noise to me but he got my attention when he mentioned a "secret runway, already available at Gatwick". Followed by "Manchester isn't yet quite big enough for 2 runway operations". That was when I realised I had been listening to an "expert" of the biblical or media kind. Maybe a politician?
I would predict though an application for an extra runway at Gatwick soon. The airport apparently owns a lot of the land to the south of the airport and, a couple of years ago, I was talking to chap there who claimed he had been told by a farmer there that he (farmer) had been given 3 years notice that Gatwick would be ending the lease.

The work HAL has undertaken is probably for R3. The Cranford work, requires a noise barrier slightly west of T5, but oops aircraft winding up to join 09L will blast debris into T5 ramps oops. Mr JHK stated they needed more taxiways as an excuse, why were they not in the planning in the first place.?

I wouldn't have thought that would be a problem. Some of the access taxiways to 27L are closer to the T2 stands than the 09L RATs would be to T5.

Pretty clear that R3 is dead - as this thread isn't full of supporters raving about the judicial system then even they seem to have realised it is a dead duck - after 60 years of trying............

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....eacc267881.jpg

Hard to believe it was written nearly 50 years ago. :O

and boy was it a load of horlicks..................

"a 2 April 1972 article in the New York Times describing LTG as "an empty and misleading work ... best summarized ... as a rediscovery of the oldest maxim of computer science: Garbage In, Garbage Out". Passell found the study's simulations to be simplistic, while assigning little value to the role of technological progress in solving the problems of resource depletion, pollution, and food production. They charged that all LTG simulations ended in collapse, predicted the imminent end of irreplaceable resources. In 1973, a group of researchers at the Science Policy Research Unit at the University of Sussex, published Thinking about the Future; A Critique of The Limits to Growth, published in the United States as Models of Doom. The Sussex group examined the structure and assumptions of the MIT models. They concluded that the simulations were very sensitive to a few key assumptions and suggest that the MIT assumptions were unduly pessimistic. The Sussex scientists expressed their opinion that the MIT methodology, data, and projections were faulty and do not accurately reflect reality.

The report has been criticized by academics, economists and business people. Critics claimed that history proved the projections to be incorrect, which was specifically based on the popular belief that The Limits to Growth predicted resource depletion and associated economic collapse by the end of the 20th century=10.8333px. The Limits to Growth faced ridicule as early as the 1970s. Attacks were made on the methodology, the computer, the conclusions, the rhetoric and the people behind the project"

BA are transferring there seasonal service to MLE from LGW to LHR from the start of the W20 schedule. Flights will be operated 3 x weekly by a 4 class 77W from 25th October. It is not yet known if the route will remain seasonal or operate year round.

BA061 LHR 18:15 MLE 09:40 77W 357

BA060 MLE 11:45 LHR 18:10 77W 146

.

Not necessarily, LGW is far more affected by discretionary/leisure flying than LHR thus more vulnerable to downturns in the event of worldwide viruses (e.g. covid 19, SARS, etc), oil price spikes, terrorism, etc.. Also there isn't the hub connectivity and the carrier with a huge base there is a point to point airline (U2). Carriers that want to be at LHR and cannot get slots are likely to go to CDG, FRA and AMS (while slots are still available there) for the required hub connectivity and not LGW (unless using it as a waiting room for LHR).

Developing the stand-by rwy may be a better option and the better business case.


Fantastic, but you may not have thought this through properly. STN is nowhere near capacity, and there would be no profit/return on investment for the airport owners from a second rwy, so it is a classic example where a business case cannot be made and it will never get past the airport's shareholders, let alone the planning system, the ecowarriors, and government imposed obstacles.

You can forget about Boris Island for exactly the same reason.

As for BHX, "London-Birmingham", as LHR's third rwy and linked by HS2: (1) HS2 will never be built; and (2) it is not planned to go to LHR.

Don't hold your breath! Didn't LGW management wack up the charges for small aircraft a few years ago thus killing off regional connectivity at a stroke? Consequently BE pulled out of LGW leaving just its PSO route LGW-NQY until that shifted to LHR.

Surely BA don’t have the capacity to fill the extra 160 odd slots they’ve just been handed back following the Flybe collapse.
I wouldn’t have thought both financially and in the current situation that they’d be leasing in anybody to fill slots, will we see BA Cityflyer perhaps operating a few quiet routes? Or maybe another airline coming in to operate domestic routes?

Didn't LHR promise to connect the regions that weren't connected !!?

from 2015 LHR press release
Heathrow has announced a new package of commitments deliverable with expansion, designed to connect the UK’s nations and regions to growth markets around the world. Taken together they have the potential to deliver billions of pounds worth of trade and investment opportunities, reversing a lost decade of connectivity which has seen regional connections to long-haul markets squeezed out of the UK’s hub airport.
:\

EU has apparently dropped this requirement
https://simpleflying.com/eu-slot-restrictions-relaxed/

BA has dropped their route from LHR to Beirut from the 12th May, which coincides with BA inheriting the former Flybe slots on the 11th and in turn releases an A321 (albeit a mid-haul one). Also coincides nicely with the currency crisis in Lebanon.

According to ACL report BA are going to use the 12x daily slots pairs its regained at Heathrow from Flybe as follows during the summer 2020 season.

5x daily to Edinburgh
4x daily to Newquay
3x daily to Aberdeen

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/n...medium=twitter

That's what they are currently allocated to - there's no obligation on BA to use them in that way.

Yes, it's hard to imagine BA putting on another 800 daily seats to EDI to replace less than half that number lost by the Flybe collapse.

You put on smaller aircraft on the BE routes, although 319s may still be too large. BA could always lease smaller aircraft. What happened a few years ago was that BA would suspend particular flights for maybe four weeks at a time which still kept them above 80% over a 30 week season. You can easily cutback operations by 10% and keep all your slots.

Still, Covid19 makes all this academic.

SQ into LHR yesterday almost all Brits self-repatriating plus a few London based Singaporeans doing the same.... Changi very quiet, LHR dead

Loads into LHR are relatively high as people are self repatriating - outbound... not so great except US tourists heading home

Colleague HAD to make a a trip to the USA on Monday - only Business Class passenger on a BA 747. Coming back yesterday he said Business was filled mainly with upgrades and the back -end was full of Brits of a certain age

Terminal Closures
 

Terminal Closures.

http://www.simpleflying.com/heathrow...-4-closure/amp

Looks like Terminal 4 will be closed and British Airways to consolidate all of their flights at Terminal 5.

Looking back in time a few months ago know one could have ever envisaged this.

Just a few weeks ago everyone was discussing the planned 3rd runway at LHR, move just a few weeks later and we're now at a situation where the prospect of a terminal at the once busy hub airport is closing along with the prospect of airline lounge's, etc in other terminals.

It's absolutely unbelievable how this has all transpired in such a short space of time.

In the article it states the inevitable withdrawal of British Airways B747's which I predicted on the British Airways thread the other day and with a couple of posters suggesting otherwise stating that they won't because "they are bought and paid for and are economical to run due to the lower price of aviation fuel". It was a very naive comment I have to say. The days of British Airways and the Boeing 747 are numbered and they will end far sooner than any of us expected.

I've yet to see the British Airways "BOAC" retro B747. I need to get up to LHR before it's too late. It's very very sad indeed, we all knew that the day would come at some point but not like this 😥

well there goes the 3rd runway..

F'cast figures for LHR for this year now below 40m.
Will take years to comeback if ever.
No passengers and the way we are going no airlines.

Government across the world will have to step in and support airlines and airports. When this is all over, 3-6 months, life will slowly get back to normal and the world economy needs aviation to function.

I reckon it'll be 3 years before we're anywhere near "normal" - and countries will be hocked up to the eyeballs - no money available for many things

3-6 months is absurdly optimistic. In my organisation we are now actively planning for at 12 months of shut down. There is zero chance of an effective or widespread vaccine becoming available before next winter when we can expect a second wave of covid-19 to hit the northern hemisphere.

The world economy as it has been operating needs aviation to function.
In the future the world economy will need some aviation, but how much? One thing we can be sure of, the shock, economic and psychological, of the current situation will mean that the future will not be the same as the past.