I bet the shareholders are delighted with this! That is a lot of money to repay!

https://www.in-cumbria.com/news/1828...lybe-collapse/

So it seems clear that Stobart have no interest in jumping in to replace Flybe on the new S2020 routes.

But are they really going to let the Holy Trinity of Rennes, Groningen and Caen die with the franchise?

They are three routes that Stobart have stuck with over the years and whenever I’ve looked seemed to attract solid to eye watering fares.

I could see FR picking up Rennes at the expense of Brest.

Stobart Group had sold and then leased back the aircraft fleet that they then placed into the Connect consortium. I think shareholders will have been pleased to see the back of the liability this created in the balance sheet of Stobart Group. In my view it was a canny move.

Loganair have announced a company schedule reduction. Derry is unaffected (assume because frequency is stipulated in the PSO) as is Carlisle but Aberdeen seems to drop to 1 daily until it ceases apart from odd days where there are 2.

I would have thought the Wizz flights are under threat as Luton is haemorrhaging passengers at the moment. (See Luton thread with photos) Of course in theory Wizz could cancel Luton flights and move the passengers to Southend.

Anyone know when/if amazon are moving their planes over to the aviation way side of the airport ?

What passengers? The industry is all about survival. Travel bans will kill off the weak airlines and the survivors will then pick up the pieces. Will there be a willingness to travel post Covid-19? I suspect they well, but......

The biggest threat to Southend is here yet none of the locals have written a word about it. Looking at what Flybe was offering in new services and what is happening now, what percentage of routes does Southend expect to have compared to what it was expecting once Spanish and Malta services are removed?

No clue but no worse than anywhere else. I guess the big elephant in the room is a prolonged shutdown risking the future of EZY and FR as airlines at worst, and a major consolidation at key bases as a middle scenario. That could see both retrench to a set of core routes at LGW & STN respectively. Add to that potential Brexit no-deal outcome, which the immediate population seem heavily supportive of. SEN could be left with almost nothing, but then the same is true of most other airports. Even EDI have admitted pax could be close to 0 in the near term.

Actually I don’t think much has been said on any thread. Really no one knows, it’s above airports so in a way no point talking about it and replicating what is said in overall corona threads.

Airlines have their favourite London bases like Easyjet at Gatwick with its overspill to Luton and Ryanair at Stansted. Luton passengers are dropping off a cliff, as with all airports, so while the falls in the last week have been breathtaking I think the recovery is going to be slow. Maybe the recovery will be spread out over a number of years if too many people lose their jobs and Europe enters a long recession.

No city in Europe has 6 airports serving it so I would expect consolidations in not only the number of flights to particular locations but a reduction of bases serving that location. I see Southend as being in a weak position, as it is the new kid on the block with just small fleets based there where its passengers could easily be absorbed into other airports with aircraft to fill.

Will Stobart have the resources to hang on to its child?

Sorry for this depressing post but the unthinkable has happened in the last month and I wonder what shocks are to come. There will be no winners and no losers only survivors.

As for Southend hitting say 5 million passengers? Yes it will no doubt happen one day but I think that day is now in the long grass.

(Edit) looks like the unthinkable is about to happen with Easyjet set to ground most of its fleet)

LTNman

My 'guess', and that's all it can be at this very early stage of the pandemic, is that by the end of March nearly all international passenger flying will have ceased at all UK airports and that internal flights will greatly decrease in number. Looking at SEN that means that passenger numbers will be insignificant by that time and that will continue for at least six months. Maybe freight flights will remain an essential element of trade with on-line purchasing in particular surging. Even if the pandemic is over by then there will be continued low activity levels until a Covid-19 vaccine is available to everyone. That may take another six months. On the assumption (or should I say in the hope) that the European economy has not collapsed into a massive recession, after that for summer 2021 I think there will be a large pent up demand from those millions of people whose holidays have been lost this year, plus business traffic could return to its previous levels. I don't see a reluctance to travel at that stage, much in the same way that the failure of major airlines in the past couple of years has not resulted in a lack of confidence to make forward bookings.

Where will SEN stand in that scenario? I haven't a clue as nobody can know which airlines will have survived and in what condition they will be. Maybe governments will see the airlines as being essential elements in the recovery and effectively fund the securing of those entities for 12 months; effectively 'nationalising' them as they may have to do with the railways. Without a viable transport infrastructure in place economic recovery will be significantly delayed.

I'm only writing the above because you asked the question, but it's all speculation and guesswork with no firm data to base it upon. I was thinking the other day 'what if I were not retired but asked to advise airports on actions to take at this time?'. The answer to that thought was simple: 'thank goodness I'm retired.'

At least SEN may generate some revenue from the storage of aircraft. They are freeing up as much parking space as possible and three BACF aircraft arrived over the weekend with more expected.

Not a lot of cash in parking up aircraft.

Better than no cash at all

AviAlliance Offer
 

AviAlliance have reportedly made an offer to purchase a 25% stake in Southend Airport from the Stobart Group - News Article

The full year trading statement has been released this morning. It seems that the liabilities associated with the sale and leaseback of the ATR fleet did not pass to Connect with the sale of Propius and Stobart Air. The trading statement has this:

"A number of guarantees and potential lease obligations exist between the Group and the separate subsidiaries of Connect Airways, being Stobart Air and Propius, which have been impacted by the collapse of Flybe. Stobart Group is actively evaluating how best to address and manage these liabilities and is in discussion with stakeholders regarding the most appropriate solutions;"

The Group is now very short of cash and needs short term debt to keep the airport running. They also state the following on the potential interest in Southend Airport:

"No acceptable terms have been agreed and discussions have since been put on hold while both parties navigate the current COVID-19 outbreak."

LDY is being reduced to one daily. Same goes for the Dundee service over at STN so there must be agreement with the respective Governments as they otherwise break the terms of the PSO.

CAX services not mentioned.

25% Stake Sale
 

It appears that talks re the partial sale of the airport (which have been going on for some months) have been put on ice while both sides evaluate their position regarding the virus. I have no business knowledge so don't know whether this would be a good or bad thing but on the face of it, could be of benefit to SEN?



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I wouldn't have thought the value of the business is going up at the moment.