No just Manchester with I think Copenhagen next

Ian

Do you mean Genoa (GOA) or Goa (GOI)? I guess both would be interesting, but the latter more exciting than the former; and probably not pie in the sky, unlike a few others on this thread!

No chance of Manchester - Singapore direct?

It is currently direct, but not "non-stop".

I think yes, when the A350 appears in greater numbers. Whether it will be daily, and what the effect will be on MUC services remains to be seen.

Is is exactly what I was thinking if there were plans to decouple the Manchester-Munich-Singapore and make the Manchester flight direct, to compete with CX into the Asian market.

I'd like a proper weekly service over the summer on EDI-MCO.

Norwegian to introduce EDI-BOS.

One of the Chinese Airlines to start EDI-PEK or PVG! I think this is going to happen sooner or later anyway.

I have previously put this on another forum but it may be of interest here. Credit Scotty Dog (SSC) for the numbers.

I have an update on the route performance of CX and SQ Ex MAN in 2015. Suffice to say SQ does not come out too well, but considering the factors at play against the current SQ operation I feel there is much to be optimistic about for the future.

I should be clear that these figures are credited to "Scottie Dog" (SSC) and my understanding is that they are based upon the official CAA figures for the relevant period. This means that they include direct routes from MAN to the destination, they do not include indirect routes (e.g. MAN-DXB-SIN). In the case of MAN, only one airline service HKG and SIN directly and so calculations can be undertaken reasonably easily. It does not include PAX from MAN-MUC carried by SQ but does include PAX ex MAN who transfer at SIN.

(Hope that is all clear?!!)

SQs performance

In 2015 SQ carried 108,950 PAX from MAN-SIN. This is up 5,998 from 2014 (102,962). Based on a daily frequency, this works out at roughly 150PAX per flight (i.e. 300 per day). Although It has not been used for the entire period under review, if it had been, a 4 class B77W (268 seats) you are looking at a load factor of around 56%. We do not know how many were premium PAX.

By way of historical comparison, in 2005 SQ carried 161,671. Over the past decade there has been a drop of 52,721.

This is disappointing. The overall market size ex MAN has not dropped (it did dip from the GFC) and long haul routes from MAN generally are booming. So what can be done to improve this? Fortunately, CX have provided the template for SQ to follow.


CX performance

In 2015 CX carried 124,172 PAX from MAN to HKG. This was the routes first full year of operations. It was 4x weekly on a 3 class B77W (no F) with 340 seats.

Based on this, they carried roughly 298 PAX per flight, representing a load factor of 88%. CX have been reportedly delighted with this, and want to make the route 8x weekly either with the B77W or A359. Crewing issues have frustrated that until 2017.

The non-stop element has been cited as a key factor in this success, but they have also code shared with a feeder airline into MAN and the departure time (12 noon ish) permits those connections. HKG is also an obscenely strong market for the UK in general.


Is there hope for SQ?

I think yes. The main issue facing SQ is that they are offering a stopping service which brings them into direct competition with a huge number of airlines, including the ME3, TK, BA, Swiss, KLM etc. This is irrespective of whether SIN is the O/D as for places like Australia or NZ (I.e. The major market) SQ essentially offer a two stop service whereas the ME3 offer a 1 stop).

Taking SIN on its own as a sector, the scheduled journey time for SQ MAN-SIN is 14:55. Without the stop it would likely be around 13:00. By comparison for MAN-SIN you are looking at the following connecting journey times:

Via AMS with KL: 15:00
Via LHR with BA: 15:05
Via FRA with SW: 15:15
Via ZRH with SW: 15:20
Via DOH with QR: 15:25
Via DXB with EK : 15:55

I have no figures to hand for EH or TK but they are not likely to be too far off this.

In summary, despite the serious competition faced by SQ and the relatively uncompetitive journey time and departure/connection options (in particular offering a two stop kangaroo service- but also to its
Own hub at SIN!!!) they do very well from MAN, and over half of the plane on the MUC-SIN sector is travelling ex MAN despite the issues above. As an example of the competition, EK report that SIN is in their top 10 connections Ex MAN.

My feeling is that it can standalone on a daily basis using an A350. Making this change is likely to result in a significant boost to PAX numbers, particularly if it uses a brand new type of aircraft.

Of more concern to SQ, may be the MUC route. Could it standalone? of course we have no idea about the general yield of MUC including premium passengers, but we will see what they do.

Bring the SQ SIN-MUC-BHX if / when MAN starts direct !

I don't think anyone other than SQ/SIN, MAN, or MUC will know how this route will be going forwards.

I doubt SQ would start via BHX as a direct reaction to any de-coupling of the MAN/MUC service, purely because it is sandwiched between MAN and LHR and the existing competition from Emirates, and (soon) Qatar. SQ suffered at MAN due to the emergence of the MEB3 and they have only recently started to recover. Still significantly down on 2005 though.

Can never recover until de linked as it is just about at it`s limit pax wise

Ian

Quite. With the MUC stop, they are no faster on a MAN-SIN sector than anyone of the MEB3, or via LHR, CDG, AMS with the added bonus that the other options offer a choice of departure times.

They also offer a slower journey on the Kangaroo route than the above and are under pressure from CX (soon to be Hainan and Air China).

My prediction is a 2016 announcement for a 2017 decoupling.

I was thinking about the future of Eurowings and they are venturing into non-German airport bases, like Vienna, what other bases do you think could be successful? They could also operate long-haul routes like DXB, JFK from these potential bases.

Here are my suggestions:

Milan-Malpensa
London-Stansted
Zurich
Budapest

I would like to see the MAN - LGW service re-instated, i believe there is a demand for it. It could be done by BA or EI (With EI operating a triangle service between DUB - MAN - LGW - MAN and in reverse) a A319 would be perfect on the route. or maybe if BE wanted to operate considering they handle transfer PAX.
For BA to operate it, it probably would be a loss making route, but then again the feed would help other flights.

Yes, but what market would MAN/LGW serve. Virgin Trains offer a far quicker city centre to city centre service than any of the airlines, given the faffing around that is part and parcel of flying these days, hubbing at LGW is again quite limited these days, and with MAN having such great connections both east and west these days I can't see the point.

Perhaps the best chance for success on MAN/LGW would be package tours to Brighton, or away days to Man. United home games!

Manchester - Heathrow sees something in the region of 75% of the users making a connection at LHR, the remaining 25% are either passengers making separate connections of their own or point to point, hence I'd suggest a Gatwick route would be a challenge for this reason and those stated in relation to the trains etc.

However, only a minority of traffic is heading for city centres nowadays, and only a fraction of that is centre-to-centre. London/SE England is big enough to be separate markets in separate areas. If you live in say Maidstone and have a business meeting in Northwich, try doing that by train.

The Manchester trains eliminated their stop at Watford, and that cut out the whole west-of-London market from them.

London City is often quoted as an airport that just serves those in Canary Wharf, yet talking to fellow passengers they come from far and wide, well out into Essex or Kent, and all across London.

So the Dubrovnik link has come to fruition thanks to easyJet. What next?

VLM seem to be getting into IOM - could there be room for the restoration of an IOM-LTN service at some point?

Are there any gaps in Europe for any of the US3 to operate successfully? One that comes straight to mind is JFK/EWR - BUD, strong demand and unserved.

Can anyone suggest what routes are next for Norwegian's long-haul operations? Maybe Las Vegas since BA have announced they are axing the route.

BA are only discontinuing LGW to Las Vegas but still operating LHR to Las Vegas plus VS serve it from LGW so is there any need for Norwegian to enter this market!

I think DY are not really that bothered with another airline competing. They have entered markets like LGW-MCO which has both BA and VS operating. Norwegian also offer cheap air fares to North America and will also beat the likes of BA & VS on price, which is another advantage over the full-service airlines. I do think that with Norwegian's latest routes from Oslo to Las Vegas, they will be thinking of serving it from Gatwick in the future.