Skippy - see what you've started? You've forgot to use the "tongue in cheek" emoticon...

Yes they do between Hawarden, Bristol and Toulouse airports and now operated by Eastern Airways E145s who took over the contract from bmi regional a few weeks ago.

Wizzair not using Manchester is bizarre !

They surround Manchester but don't actually fly from it. Now thee only lo cost airline not to use the largest airport outside London.

A myriad opportunities to Eastern Europe are available !

It's not bizarre. Liverpool is cheaper and half an hour down the road.

There's already LHR-NAS 5 days/week, extended to GCM 4 days/week.

As this is my first post on pprune, let me say hello. Perhaps some of you will recognise my handle, in which case hello again!

There has been a fair amount of chatter regarding long haul routes ex MAN on a number of forums that I am a member of. Some of these have been mentioned but it may be worth my while to offer my two cents.

Cape Town - as LAX_LHR mentions this would be a dream route for TCX. It did not work with SAA but should do with the right aircraft. I'd like to see VS perform this route but in their current position I suspect that is beyond a long shot. Johannesburg would also be a good one, but less of a leisure route for TCX.

Shanghai - this seems likely to be launched by Air China sometime after Hainan launch the Beijing route.

LAX/SFO - although TCX have launched a route to LAX this summer, it is only twice a week and seasonal. The indications are that demand is stronger for that route, and I'm sure there are a number of airlines who will watch with interest. BA used to offer this in the past and VS have long been credited with an interest. The partnership with DL has been productive in Atlanta and a further expansion west might benefit both parties. I doubt both would be launched but I would not be shocked if one was within the next year. A left field operator in the shape of Air New Zealand have been interested in the past.

Bangkok - as mentioned, another good TCX route. Apparent TG were keen on MAN before their recent problems. Not sure why, but hey ho.

Kuala Lumpur - big market, served by MH in the past but their wel publicised issues mean it is unrealistic. Air Asia X have sniffed around this route but we're put off by APD.

Tokyo - long running interest from JAL. Who knows if anything would come from it but it would be a great one to have.

Delhi/Mumbai - quite how AI have not opened this is beyond me. BHX do really well on the route and I suspect MAN would equal that (unless they feel it would dilute their pax market?)

Dallas - AA have tweeted about running a 788 on this route. Whether anything happens is anyone's guess.

Singapore - who knows what SQ will do. On another forum I have posted that MAN supply comfortably over half the average PAX load to SIN from MUC. How much of those are premium PAX I do not know. The figures are not a million miles away from the early 2000s when it was daily in the 772ER and the suggestion is they they will try non stop again with an A359.

JFK/EWR - big increase in PAX in 2015. Hopefully someone Will offer a different departure time than early morning!!!

Hong Kong - a daily or 8x weekly CX service I think will launch in 2017.

On BA, as Shed says they would argue that their partner and alliance airlines serve MAN. They are not the national operator, but a hub airline - same as the MEB3, SQ, CX etc. MAN is a spoke, but a pretty large spoke. Do I think they could make a long haul operation at MAN work? Possibly, but I doubt they'll try. There is clearly a market for it, but there would need to be no half measures and some people have long memories of BA abandoning MAN and that would be difficult to circumvent. They may need to change their business model to a dual hub a la LH - who are not exactly in the best of shapes.

Yep. And we saw what Ryanair and easyJet have done after focusing in on the apparently "cheaper" airport.

Some that come to mind are Tallinn; Vilnius; Katowice; Poznan; and Cluj as well as Bucharest. Some of those have been tried in the past and the routes pulled, but it doesn't mean they couldn't work in future.

The difficulty is that they operate from competitor airports already by various carriers, so it needs an airline to take up the challenge. While easyjet fly to cities such as Berlin and Madrid from both LPL and MAN, I don't see Wizz doing the same with its destinations. Routes served from DSA and BHX but not LPL would be less of an issue for them I guess.

Edit: Of the possible routes mentioned, it seems Wizz only fly to KTW from LPL. Ryanair fly to Vilnius and Poznan from LPL but they do duplicate one or two routes I believe. Blue Air have flights to Bucharest and Cluj.

Glasgow - New York JFK (American)
With the daily Delta and American as well the double daily United service to Newark demand may be over estimated at Edinburgh and Glasgow could gain a new service.

Glasgow - Charleroi (Ryanair)
Glasgow - Beauvais (Ryanair)
Glasgow - Knock (Ryanair)
Glasgow - Shannon (Ryanair)
All routes previously operated by Ryanair from Prestwick but could be revived at Glasgow. Beauvais in particular carried 20000+ pax per month in past years.

10/day to London (BA) BA Hub
8/day to Ireland (EI) EI hub
3/day to USA (AA) All to AA hubs
up to 3-4/day to Spain/Italy (IB/I2/VY)MAD - IB Hub; BCN = VY Hub
Billund/Helsinki (EZ/AY), EZ and AY Hubs

That's how it is now. An ideal route is 50% O&D to the major metropolitan area where the hub is located, and 50% connecting traffic there onward to other destinations on the network. If you can get a greater share of the O&D (Dublin likely) that's to the good because revenue per seat is commonly better than the "attributed share" of a through fare, but the connecting traffic brings notable economies of scale.

The "logistical headache" of re-positioning BA aircraft to be based out of MAN is actually not that hard. VS already carries this out with their ATL service in which aircraft swap routes out in ATL therefore allowing major maintenance to be carried out at LHR without the need of a positioning flight. BA could easily do this with the frequency of flights they have to multiple destinations they have in the USA. The 787-8 is the perfect aircraft for these types of flights as it was what is was designed for long thin routes.

With regards to diluting the market DL added their JFK service last year and yields on AA have roughly stayed the same. BA could possibly make the 2nd service somewhat later in the day as they have done for their new LGW-JFK service.

Other flights I would like to see from MAN would be:
MAN - WAW (LOT)
MAN - DXB (Using QF Metal)
MAN - NRT/HND (JAL/ANA)
MAN - BKK (TG)
MAN - DEL/BOM (AI/9W)

Could we see any full-service airlines from Eastern Europe operating to MAN? LOT (to WAW), Czech Airlines (to PRG), TAROM (to OTP), Bulgaria Air (to SOF)?

I was also thinking about British Airways Gatwick operations and what routes they could add from there. Came up with these;

LGW-DUB
LGW-LPA
LGW-PMI
LGW-TXL
LGW-MXP

What are your thoughts? Any other suggestions?

Bit far fetched and I know it's never likely to happen but how about a few new domestic routes -

LTN - NQY (BE/EZY)
LTN - NCL (EXS/EZY)
LTN - CWL (BE)
LTN - MAN (EZY)

Mid haul Routes -

LTN - RAI (BY/ZB)
LTN - PDL (BY/ZB)
LTN - ODS (WZZ)

This certainly is an interesting discussion point. Many of the routes could be viable. However, given the consolidation that has happened in the industry in Europe and the US (Europe not done yet), airlines are cherry picking what they believe to be the most profitable routes to deploy their aircraft. Shareholder demand plays a large part and a maximisation of yield and optimisation of the schedules are to the fore... Nonetheless I'll add my two pence worth.

Coming at this from a Northern Ireland then an Ireland perspective ;

Belfast International - Toronto ( was traditionally a well established route, Canada has large NI diaspora) surprised Norwegian or Westjet haven't went in though, I'd imagine Westjet looked before..

Belfast City - Cork: bring this route back pure financial crash and air crash by Manx 2 Aer Arann had very respectable business schedule that was well subscribed. The drive is long, and I believe this route is probably the most viable routes inside the Island.

Belfast ( either airport) - Naples, Venice. Huge demand on seasonal basis. Peak summer flights on holiday routes tend to be packed and fares very high.

Time is also right to bring back Belfast to Gdansk and Warsaw in Poland. Large Polish continent in Belfast, all of who fly via Dublin.

Belfast (either airport) - Berlin. Was withdrawn in the worst of times. It used to do well and Berlin is great city break.

Belfast (either airport but probably at City) - Madrid, by Iberia express. Willie Walsh stated that despite the failure of Vueling on BCN, they'd look at opportunities ex Belfast. He said if route development fund was offered, Madrid by Iberia Express could be a real possibility.

Dublin - China and Thailand. But the former is reported to be coming on line from winter next.

Fairdealfrank


With regards to Nassau I think he meant the transfer of NAS and GCM from LHR to LGW to join the rest of the Caribbean destinations.

All four of these carriers have served these very routes in times past. They eventually succumbed to competition from more nimble no-frills competitors (from LPL as well as MAN). Three of those four cities are now served from MAN by no-frills carriers, so there would be robust competition to contend with. Czech Airlines has now repositioned itself as a no-frills operation in its own right, even down to serving unlikely obscure airports.

But it is also not a compelling proposition when they can just leave the heavy lifting to their codeshare partner and close buddy American Airlines. It is certainly less hard for them.

Aircraft enthusiasts would welcome this, but what is in it for the airline? High-volume bookings already come in via the existing codeshare arrangements.

Actually, SAA did fine on MAN-JNB/CPT for several years. Everything changed when international sanctions against South Africa were lifted following the abolition of Apartheid. Overnight, a world of international opportunities opened up to SAA's limited fleet resources. New glamorous global destinations were launched, MAN made way. Of course, today's SAA is a very different beast and the market has changed beyond recognition. The VFR market has collapsed (more dramatically than Canada). The draw for South Africa now has to be tourism-driven, but some of its cities are today considered very high risk for visitors from a safety perspective.

Leisure operators such as Thomas Cook and Thomson will likely favour the exotic resorts rather than the capital. An airline such as Thai can offer connections across Thailand from BKK; TCX and TOM cannot do this. The island beaches are the big mass-market draw. However, if they do decide to offer BKK I'll be delighted.

Ethnic distribution is a key consideration here. Political correctness urges us to speak of "Asians", but Indians, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis are not the same (let alone other nationalities comprising Asia). Birmingham and the Midlands has a very large ethnic Indian population, including a concentration of Sikhs who travel to Amritsar. The North West is home to far more Pakistanis and Bangladeshis, as are some areas of West Yorkshire. There are Indians resident in the NW, but on nothing like the scale of those living around Birmingham Airport's catchment. Having said that, I do believe that MAN could support a service to India (it is a BRIC and a tourism hotspot, after all) but BHX undeniably has the stronger market in this instance.

Never say never. MAN remains a medium-term objective for Air Asia X according to some informed sources. MAN wasn't top pick in earlier rounds, but it is still on the agenda.

Yes indeed there is and it's a route that could comfortably fit into BA's long haul network at Gatwick especially now the route is switching from a 767 to 777. That's what I was speculating about.

How about

Luton to Stockholm
Luton to Oslo

Aside from the CPH battle between FR and EZY, Scandinavia is still woefully underserved at Luton. Maybe an opportunity for Norwegian to develop a new operation or for easyJet to expand to countries in Europe they don't currently serve?

Looks like it irks some people that Wizzair use Liverpool, indeed expanding at Liverpool an obscure airport that Czech Airlines also use.

Indeed, the way people go on you'd also think Merseyside was the location of some rural backwater airport like PIK or MME.

How about some more destinations from LCY (Yes, I know some have been tried before but that doesn't mean they can't work & this is speculation)

LCY - TXL
LCY - CPH
LCY - MAN
LCY - LIS
LCY - VIE

Here's what I wish from Brs :-

Oslo and Stockholm
Tallinn and Riga
Athens Mykonos
Istanbul
One of the big middle eastern 3
New York
Cancun
Orlando
Toronto
Seville almeria
Banjul
Lyon Biarritz
Cologne
Zurich

The UK-Poland market represents around 6 million pax per annum. MAN is woefully under-represented in this market, hence calls for services by Wizzair and others from there in particular. I have not noted any calls on here for Wizzair to leave Liverpool; there is a defined market for both airports. Please note that my posting did not label LPL as an obscure airport. Perhaps you think it is? Either way, its catchment area for Eastern Europe overlaps that of MAN but does not duplicate the majority of it. By the way, the same also applies to DSA and BHX ... you appear to believe this is some kind of LPL v MAN issue?

Half an hour down the road from where? This depends on one's individual location and preferred mode of transport. Early morning LPL departures and late evening LPL arrivals mean a costly hotel nightstop for me and I'm located in the MAN area. All LPL flights imply much higher ground transport costs from my location also. The customer proposition presented by using the two airports is very different (and of course this applies both ways). Densely-used routes such as those to Poland require exposure from both airports, but certainly more than the current ten weekly departures offered from MAN.

As for LPL being 'cheaper', can you tell us exactly how much cheaper than MAN it actually is (since you seem to know?). Do you suppose Ryanair are paying big bucks at MAN? I suspect that the difference paid by ULCC's at the two airports is very small indeed, and remember that airport charges at one end of a route represent a tiny proportion of the overall cost of providing a scheduled service.

Its not a Brussels/Charleroi Glasgow/Prestwick big area small area comparison. Liverpool and Merseyside is a decent sized market of it's own. People seem to think its merely a pawn for Manchester and no more. There probably is a market at MAN for WIZZ but not at LPL's expense and based on their geographical diaspora in regions with multiple airports they seem to favour either one or the other. In the NW its LPL at the moment, in the same way with LTN over STN in London, DSA over LBA in Yorkshire and GLA over EDI in Scotland. They are prepared to go for the cheaper option if it means they are still centrally located to a population base.

SOU/BOH
 

I may as well throw in my 2 pence:

BOH-MAD (FR)
BOH-PSA (FR)
BOH-CIA (FR)
BOH-WAW/WMI (FR/Wizz)
BOH-KTW (Wizz)
BOH-HER (TOM)
BOH-LCA (TOM)
BOH-CCS (FR)
BOH-INN (OS)
BOH-TSF (FR)
BOH-DUB (FR)

SOU-FRA (BM/BE)
SOU-CPH (BM)
SOU-ZRH (BM)
SOU-IBZ (BE/TOM/TCX/Volotea)
SOU-MAH (BE/TOM/TCX)
SOU-VCE (BE/Volotea)
SOU-BCN (BE/VY)
SOU-FCO (VY)
SOU-TFS (TOM) (Would need a 757)
SOU-ACE (TOM (as above)
SOU-NCE (BE/HOP!)

Agreed. Note that my postings support this view.

Who exactly? Is this a chip-on-the-shoulder problem?

Again, nobody here has called for a switch from LPL, only for the addition of MAN flights as well.

You can't really argue these points in parallel. Are LPL/MAN fighting for broadly the same market as per BRU/CRL, GLA/PIK or not? My view is that there is sufficient disparity between the MAN and LPL catchments for Eastern Europe to justify provision of services from both airports.

People presume far too much weighting on the cost of airport charges at one end of a route as a proportion of the overall expense of providing a service. Strip out fuel, salaries, aircraft financing, insurance, nav charges, costs at the reciprocal airport and you will appreciate how small a deal this really is. Some special-case airports such as LHR and LCY levy much higher fees than their peers due to unique circumstances, but this is not the case at LPL or MAN. Both airports offer terms which have proven conducive to a substantial ULCC presence. So we cannot glibly claim that MAN is "expensive" and LPL is "cheap". Ryanair appear quite at ease with the deals offered by both airports ... can there be such a chasm between comparative charges levied at the two?

Note also that LPL is centrally located to a different area of population than the one to which Manchester is centrally located.

North East wishlist:

NCL-LCY - I know the train is quick but East London to NCL is nearly 4 hours when you factor in the tube ride. BA are creaming it on the LHR-NCL route at the moment judging by what I have paid for flights and the load factors I have seen.
NCL-LGW - I know Easyjet couldnt make it stack up last time but with LGW becoming more connection friendly it might work again. A code share with BA to access their LGW routes would be ideal.
NCL-FRA - I know NCL is connected to the KL/AF & BA hubs but being connected to FRA would hugely increase my options, especially for getting to the more niche airports in Europe. I have to go to LNZ in a few weeks and I am forced to fly out of EDI and returning to LCY to avoid 2 airport changes.
NCL-OSL - Ideally it would be NCL-ARN but there is no chance of that happening. I have always been very impressed with Norwegian.
NCL-IST - lots of speculation on this over recent years. EK seem to be doing well out of NCL so I guess if they do not go to a double daily flight then TK or QR might be tempted.

Anything from MME would be brilliant but I do not hold out much hope.

NCL
 

To add to tigertanakas comments:
NCL to Stavanger & Bergen from Norwegian or other LCC (Braathens had a daily 737 service to Oslo,Stavanger & Bergen inmid 2000s before SAS takeover, so a low cost operation would surely bring in volume. Wilderoe exiting SVG end of this month. Maybe Airport would want to attract Full service operator to maintain a equal split and better Airport margin on revenue.

Add Berlin & Milan (MXP)

Gatwick may work with connecting to Alliances as well as BA, but these tend to be fed into larger hubs: Star via Lufthansa/EW, Skyteam via AMS/CDG.
Low cost carriers could feed into all airlines if agreements are successful. Gatwick Airport are also launching a connecting agreement which compensates for missed connections, but does not arrange through ticketing/baggage.

David Laws (Newcastle Airport CEO) recent article - Route plans about 4/5th through article:
Monday interview: David Laws, chief executive of Newcastle International Airport - Chronicle Live

Double Daily to Dubai and Leisure service to Las Vegas on his radar!

Quite a few people from our region also do Orlando either via Manchester with Virgin or via LHR (VS,BA/US Airlines) May be theres an opportunity for another service to Orlando from NCL as well as TOM (TOM and TCX used to compete/serve Orlando at least twice a week not so long ago)

The MAN-JFK/EWR market is one which has seen substantial growth ex MAN in 2015. The figures (per Scotty Dog of SSC) are as follows:

JFK: an increase of 119,033.

-2014, 112,996 were carried on the route.
-2015, 232,029 were carried on the route.

EWR: a decrease of 2,878

-2014, 114,317 were carried on the route.
-2015, 111,439 were carried on the route.


I think I am right in saying that United are the only operators of the EWR route for both 2014 and 15. I am not entirely sure who the new entrants to the JFK route were, but it may have been DL and TCX.

In broad terms, the route has shown the ability to prosper and grow rapidly. The issue as has been alluded to are the flight times which are all bunched in the morning. I doubt BA will use their own metal to serve this but I would not put it beyond AA to introduce an evening departure (although I assume all flights are morning departure/arrivals for good reason).

Are there any other routes that you think Iberia/Iberia Express could operate from Madrid?

Also are there any routes that Vueling are still to add from their Barcelona hub? Any big markets that they are missing?

Dobbo - if a flight leaves Manchester about 10 am local time, it arrives in New York around 1 pm local time, leaving plenty of opportunity for passengers going elsewhere in North America to catch onward connecting flights.

Change that 10 am departure from Manchester to a 7 pm departure, allow for a couple of hours for immigration and changing plane and the number of onward connecting short-haul flights leaving New York around 11 pm is pretty small. Spending a night at JFK is not a particularly popular option amongst those who are time-poor, cash-rich and travelling business class - i.e. the most profitable customers.

London can manage an evening departure to New York because the number of people travelling just between these two cities is so large. Manchester doesn't have this luxury.

Now factor in that an aircraft leaving Manchester around 7 pm probably has to arrive in Manchester about 5 pm to have a decent chance of offloading passengers, clean the aircraft, load catering, new passengers, luggage, and allow a margin for small delays. That means the aircraft has to have left New York about 6 am local time. Domestic flights within the USA would have to arrive in New York about 4 am to give a fair chance of making the connection - i.e. really not popular with most connecting passengers, never mind any night noise rules the airport might have to obey.

Barring any special holiday events, flights from Manchester to New York run on a commercial basis pretty much have to leave no later than UK lunchtime to be commercially viable.

Thanks David - understood. There must be suitable window for a later departure/arrival time. I admit I have not given it too much thought. But something timed around a 5-7pm departure from MAN Id have thought would be popular.

Do we know anything about VS/DL plans for MAN? I know the BS to ATL route has been doing well, as has DL to JFK. VS are often mooted (as in this thread) as possible operators of a SFO and/or LAX route. I don't know what presence DL has at these locations but it would likely be relevant to any decision.

Dobbo - the only flights I can see leaving Europe around 6 pm to go to NYC are on aircraft operated by a European airline departing from one of their very large hubs with all the benefits of feeder traffic. Thus Air France form Paris, KLM from Amsterdam, Scandinavian from Copenhagen, Swiss from Zurich, etc...
The only proper exceptions to this rule in all of Europe seems to be at London which has the advantage of linking the commercial capitals of North America and Europe with all the senior management of major global corporations travelling back and forth willing to pay big bucks for a flight ticket. London has almost 30 flights per day to NYC - yes almost 10 times as many as Manchester

If British Airways were to base several or more long-haul aircraft in Manchester *and* re-open a hub at MAN, an early evening flight to NY might be feasible. Until then, daily 6 pm flights from Manchester to the USA would certainly be popular with Mancunians but terrible on profitability and are thus looking really quite unlikely to happen.

EMA - AMS

KLM the operator

MAN-NEW YORK TIMINGS.
As DJ6 points out, this would not really work for pax connecting on in the US.
However, given the increase in capacity to New York and that flights appear to be well used, it would be interesting to know how much of the traffic is purely O&D, (or is p2p the correct term?).

For transfer pax going on to say the west coast, the 3 hour time difference does provide some help. Nevertheless, I would suggest the latest timing to connect to say SFO would be a 13.30 departure from MAN arriving New York about 16.15. Both United and American have flights to SFO from EWR/JFK at 18.30 for dates I checked in June, arriving 22.10. Later flights at around 20.30 arrive after midnight so hardly ideal.

Looking at summer schedules, it appears Delta's JFK flight from MAN is now later at 12.45 with a 15.25 arrival, so there is some spread of options from 09.25 UA and 10.15 AA.

I was thinking about the possibility of Ryanair opening a CWL base, and they could maybe operate these routes;

Cardiff-London (Stansted)
Cardiff-Amsterdam
Cardiff-Dublin
Cardiff-Alicante
Cardiff-Edinburgh
Cardiff-Malaga

Thoughts on these routes? Any other routes that could be realistically operated from CWL?

The Wizz timings to PRG are appalling. Am not entirely sure who they're aimed at which is why I think EZY or even Wizz could do well offering daytime departure/return on what is a popular route. Am amazed no one has seen the potential of the route.

I've been wondering also about some other destinations

Luton - Kraków (easyJet or Ryanair)
Luton - Dubrovnik (easyJet or Monarch)
Luton to Seville (easyJet)
Luton to Verona (easyJet)
Luton to Antwerp (VLM)
Luton to Brussels (VLM)
Luton to Tirana (Wizz)

Can anyone explain to me the difference between Route Speculation (the title of this thread) and Wild Fantasy Lists (not the title of this thread)?

I don't think we're far off someone suggesting Cardiff to China because there are a lot of Chinese chippies in the area and therefore any airline would make a 'killing'. Or perhaps a Newcastle to Mexico City route because someone was talking to some Mexicans in a nightclub and they were complaining about hard it was to get to Newcastle.

Perhaps as a rule of thumb, before posting these fantasy lists, posters might ask themselves: would they launch such a route using their own money, (as opposed to expecting someone else to do it with their money) would they expect a profit from doing so and more importantly how would they expect to make a profit?

Blimey, wish I'd read this before I gave all that money to those Spanish speaking blokes down the Bigg Market.

They reckoned we'd make a killing on Newcastle to Mexico with a couple of 767's and we'd get a good deal for cash.... :eek:

As the leader of this thread, I always say in my posts can anyone think of any routes that would be realistic and successful, but some people do go off on a tangent. I can't really do anything about people's imaginations going wild I'm afraid, just do what I do and ignore their posts!