Seems the MAN-YYZ market isn't quite right for mainline. Frustrating, because the route carried 105,480 passengers last year (Rouge and Transat), and AC launched Montreal-Tokyo off the back of 24,880 O&D.

I think there are benefits to AC mainline - they would pick up more connecting traffic to North America for a start.

As said, I don't expect anything brand new for 2018 - incremental increases to existing routes would be good. I think the next 2-3 years we will be looking east for new carriers. Perhaps we will see some modest TATL growth, but I expect this will be driven by TCX.

But will Manchester actually get 3.5% ?

If Ryanair couldn't base extra aircraft in 2017 it's not likely there will be any room in 2018.

I'd say so, from a combination of:

1 - increased loads factors;
2 - larger aircraft;
3 - increased use of away based aircraft;
4 - increased use of off peak flying.

The other thing to bear in mind:

Cathay: operating 4 weekly this year till June, 5 weekly June to December then daily. So we've 2 or 3 flights a week more for 11 months which means there's roughly an extra 45,000 seats on offer.
Oman Air: operating from 1st May. So next year, we've 4 months of operations extra so about 13,000 more seats on offer

Those 2 routes alone could contribute up to 0.2% of MAN's growth next year without even thinking of them having higher loads on the same frequencies operated this year.

Factor in all the services operating year-round that are being introduced this year and you're talking up to an extra 11 months of operations.

MAN are reconfiguring stand 55 to accommodate 2 B737-800. That with an AA B767 less, that potentially room for 2 more B737 based for Ryanair. They had a desire to go to 10 this summer, so not unreasonable to think they could have 11 based next year.

Splitting or 'MARS-ing' Stand 55 will not create another stand as it takes out 56. It's about creating another stand which passengers can walk out to. No net gain but more attractive to Ryanair who prefer not to bus passengers. The loss of one AA 757/767 doesn't really help add based T3 aircraft as generally the overnight based fleet has gone by 0700 when the Atlantic arrivals drop in, and returns after they have gone.

How do think the TP plan for Brussels compares to the Manchester one ? https://www.facebook.com/brusselsair...3783007665325/ train and tram go into the terminal (not miles away) shuttle monorail to car parks and spotters area. Acres of space inside and outside too (much like Munich) . Sure BRU is a capital city, but it handles less pax than MAN.
Our emphasis appears to be a small boy telling us how great the shops will be- or am I being unkind?

It would be enlightening to see costs,capacity etc.

Brussels like MAG consists of a number of private investors but is this possibly EU money ?

One important factor is they have a lot more space to work with.

Why would EU give them money?

The key difference is BRU is quiet expensive to operate from and in return they have more money. MAN is pretty cheap and they cannot really increase charges without losing traffic.

Fair comparisons
 

In making our comparisons with equivalent airports we should consider the constraints MAN is operating within:

>Very limited available land for core development or other revenue generating
>The level of airport charges which the market will bear
>Shareholder expectations for ROCE*, both public and private
>Lack of state funding
>Highly competitive retail environment with the growth in on-line shopping
>No anchor air carrier who's continuing patronage and major stakeholder status can be relied upon. Remember BA?

Most other airport's with MAN's volume of traffic and route network have perhaps 2 or 3 but not all of these constraints. In many senses MAN does not have an equivalent airport, it is pretty unusual and its primary strength is the vast route network and choice of carriers available to a non-capital city and region.

*Return On Capital Employed

Looks like VS have adjusted SFO/BOS schedules.

SFO - resumes 22 May
BOS - resumes 23 May

What state funding other airports receive than MAN doesn't?

In some respects regulation helps when it comes to capital spend which most major airports are.

Well, MAD, BCN, PMI, AGP all owned by the Spanish government agency AENA who have pumped Billions of Euros in to them. Germany's major airports all state owned, too - local and federal.

Stated owned is very different to taxpayers cash funding them which is state aid. It just dons't happen, they are all public companies in some form and relay on markets and banks to finance them.

The reality is a lot of these airports are charging 3, 4 or 5 times per passenger than MAN combined with lower costs in terms of operating and construction all help.

You get what you invest in, cut costs now you will get a sub standard infrastructure and it has potential to cost an airport longer term. Note I am not referring to MAN TP as I don't know enough about it but the principal still stands.

While the plans have had some criticism here, if MAG had a full consolation process with carriers to meet all needs and they are happy then I can't really say there plans are bad nor can people here as they are paying the bills.

Work starts tomorrow on demolishing the West Pier on Terminal 2 as part of the MAN-TP programme.

Demolition is due to be completed just before Christmas according to Magworld.

Airlineroute reporting Hainan to reduce to 3 weekly for winter (4 weekly last winter). Seems to be part of a network reduction with Chicago, San Jose and Seattle also reducing.

What that tells you is that yield isn't that great, and the service is largely catering for leisure traffic, and shipping Chinese students back and forth.

The tour operator has understandably reduced their commitment , so capacity is reduced in line.

You gathered all that information just from HU reducing one of a few routes by 1 weekly flight? Wow!

:rolleyes::*
What it tells you is HU is adjusting seasonally, reducing Europe and North America whilst moving capacity to the Southern Hemisphere summer.
What that tells you is summer yield has bugger all to do with it.