Potential impact of Scottish independence on flights from Scotland
 

Evening Ladies and Gents,


First time poster but long-time reader with interest. The reason I have decided to finally sign up and post is because I have some rather specific questions and I hope some knowledgeable people here from within the industry can give me an informed answer, rather than the uninformed nonsense coming from point scoring politicians.

With the referendum on Scotland independence just a matter of months away, I was wondering in the event of a yes vote what impact would this have upon Scotland’s airline and tour operator industry.

I think it’s safe to say an independent Scotland will not gain automatic entry to the EU, and why should it, so what effect could this have on flights between Scotland and the continent and in particular those operated by low cost airlines. For example would Easyjet, a British airline still be able to offer flights between Glasgow and Berlin if Scotland is not part of Britain and the EU? Similarly, for example, would Ryanair, an Irish airline still be able to offer flights between Edinburgh and many EU destinations if Scotland is no longer part of the UK and the EU?

Another question I have is regarding long haul flights. Now my basic understanding is that the likes of United Airlines, US Airways and Emirates will be able to operate into an independent Scotland without issue but where there may be an issue is with Virgin Atlantic. Would Virgin Atlantic, a British airline still be able to fly its Glasgow-Orlando route considering Glasgow would a non-Britain and non-EU airport?

Am I also right in thinking that Thomson and Thomas Cook would have no option but to cancel all flights from Scotland to more exotic destinations such as Mexico, Cuba, Dominican Republic and Egypt etc but you cannot have a UK/EU based airline operating flights between two non-UK/EU airports, which is what, for example a Glasgow to Cancun routing would be.


Thank you in advance for any information.

And what if they reduce/cancel ADT? First class pax flying from London to Scotland before starting their long-haul will soon have London thinking.

Why would flying longhaul via Scotland be anymore a threat to APD than via Ireland or Continental Europe?

Penguin - your questions seem to be based on the assumption that
- Scotland will vote for independence
- AND Scotland will have to spend a year or more outside the EU
- AND Scotland won't sign an interim air transport agreement with the EU (as has happened with Morocco and Israel) or otherwise grant some form of open skies.

To be honest, I think assuming all 3 points is quite a strong assertion - any Scottish transport ministry would be foolish to let all 3 points come into effect.

Scotland's only link to anywhere outside the British Isles is by flying. Loganair and bmi regional are great airlines but will never be able to service Scotland in the way that the country needs. That means Scotland has to have a liberal air transport market with (as a minimum) the rest of the EU or go back to the bad old days of the 1980s with national flag carriers charging a fortune, putting Scotland at a significant disadvantage to the rest of the EU

These are al extremely rhetorical questions, but a non-EU country can subscribe to the Single Market for air transport outwith the EU - for example Norway and Iceland. I could very well foresee an iScotland - if it were pursuing eventual membership of the EU - negotiating a place in the EU 'acquis' as regards aviation, and benefiting from both the liberalised internal market and e.g. the EU/US bilateral aviation agreement.

Negotiations would be in order but not nearly as complex as some of the other stuff they would have to sort out.

But dinnae fash yersel', it's not goin' tae happen

written while DJ6 was already posting his excellent answer

And no EURO-VISION song contest

A more interesting question would be what will happen to the airspace. There is already the UK/Ireland FAB (funtional air block) where Shannon ATC work large parts of UK airspace under an agreement, and the Irish Aviation Authority are making serious moves to take back ATC for the north Atlantic (delegated to Prestwick by the Irish government in 1966 IIRC.

If Scotland votes Yes, there is no automatic entry into the EU but is it really conceivable that the EU would revoke the EU passports of 5.3 million people that live in an independent Scotland, revoke the rights of Scottish people who work in other EU countries from having the right to work there, revoke the rights of citizens of other EU countries (including from the rest of the UK) to work in Scotland, revoke the right of Spanish, French, Danish and other EU fishermen to fish in Scottish waters, etc etc etc etc etc etc etc.

Scotland, as part of the UK, already complies with all EU regulations and its people are already EU citizens. A way will be found to allow continuing membership. The scare stories are just that. Scare stories. The fact that the EU has never encountered this situation before does not mean that it's going to do something vindictive and vexatious which would cause the rest of the EU as many problems as it would cause an independent Scotland.

So, yes, there is a theoretical risk but in reality a way will be found. Sweden negotiated membership of the EU from scratch in about 12 months. A Scotland that already complies with all EU regulations will be able to negotiate membership in the same or less time. These scare stories are theoretically possible but realistically utter nonsense.

Excellent post, Porrohman.

Pragmatism will be the order of the day.

I agree that pragmatism will win the day, but I'm not sure it will be as straight forward as suggested:

From a practical point of view, I find it very hard to believe that "Sweden negotiated membership of the EU from scratch in about 12 months". And even if they did, the implementation of EU membership won't be done in 12 months - the SG doesn't have the capacity;

There is resistance in a number of member states to making it too easy for separatist movements to split off - Spain being the obvious one, but there are others;

There is also a growing feeling that the EU is too unwieldy as it is now, another MS just makes life harder for everybody especially if they aren't bringing a large political/economic bonus to the table;

There will be very strong resistance from the North of England if Scotland is seen to be distorting the market in Aviation (and other areas!) e.g. by scrapping APD etc - Newcastle is probably too small to have much impact but when Manchester weighs in it'll be a different story.

We've been in the EU for 40 years. Sweden wasn't.

Spain's position has been stated publicly on a number of occasions. No other state has ever raised any issues. Why would they?

The views of people in the north of England are irrelevant quite frankly. Neighbouring states competing on APD is simply a fact of life.

Thanks for all the answers,

It would appear flights to the EU would be safe but, unless I’m missing something, nobody has answered the question regarding flights to further afield destinations.

Would Thomson for example still be able to fly from Glasgow to the Dominican Republic and Mexico? It is my understanding that because of different laws, Thomson being a British airline can only operate from British airports to these destinations. This could be why such routes do not exist from Dublin, perhaps?

Maybe it will be time to revive Caledonian Airways? Good luck to the Scots if they choose to leave the UK. There may not be a majority voting for Scottish independence within Scotland, but I suspect there is a majority within the rest of the UK (or maybe just within England, or maybe just within the SE of England...?) who would vote for Scottish independence.......

:)

I really fail to understand Spain's stance on Scottish Independence. I know people talk about Basque or Catalan independence as being the cause of their reluctance, but they are not the same thing. If Scotland votes for yes then it will be a democratic process agreed to by both the Scottish and rUK government. The UK Government has already stated it will fully support whatever result the voters return, so why Spain is going to kick up a fuss is beyond me. The only way Spain could possibly compare this to it's own situation or that of Kosovo (who they also disagree with) is if the SNP used terrorism tactics (as in the case of ETA), Independence was announced against the wishes of the parent state and the parent state also refused to recognise the new states status (as in the case of Kosovo) or the parent state refused to acknowledge or even provide the residents with a legally binding, mutually agreed to referendum (as is the case with Catalonia).

Spain isn't going to kick up a fuss. That's the point.

All the posts so far only deal with the technicalities of traffic rights etc. Surely equally important would be how an independent Scotland would fare economically as this would determine the success or failure of routes to and from Scotland.

I agree with Porrohman, absolutely correct. Scotland already complies with ALL EU requirements etc. The EU will not reject an existing enthusiastic member. The greatest threat to Scotland's EU membership comes from English right wing politicians, and is certainly not from independence.

I hear Mr Salmon wants to set up passport control at Hadrian's Wall to check on all the right wingers wanting a slice of the action :ugh:

In a word no impact whatsoever.

I fail to understand the scaremongering that there would be ?

Racedo is right, as a Scot I say go for it. I have heard the case all my days that everything will be better if a group of British rogues is swapped for a Scottish one.

But at least they'd be OOR parcel of rogues... :p

I'm no political follower really but this issue of Scotland and the EU.

As I understand it, in order for Scotland to join the EU, EVRY other member of the EU has to agree?

That includes Spain.

If Spain agree, then they give themselves a huge, I mean huge, problem with Catalonia, as if they allow Scotland to break away and join the EU, then they open the flood gates for an independent Catalonia and couldn't very well deny Catalonia access.

So, the simple solution to Spain's problem is to say no to Scotland …

I may well have mis read that, but I am sure that was the gist of the news a few weeks ago ...

According to a report in the Sunday Times last weekend the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats will offer Scotland greater tax powers, including setting air passenger duty and vehicle excise duty in the event of a No vote.

If that is the case air passenger duty will devolve to Scotland, and almost certainly significantly reduce, whether the electorate votes Yes or No to Independence.

If Scotland does remain in the UK it's very likely that the Wales government would then also be offered the same power re air passenger duty.

The result would be another slant on the West Lothian Question with Westminster, consisting of MPS from the entire UK, responsible for English airports' air passenger duty with possibly a chancellor representing a Welsh or Scottish constituency. There are recent precedents with Brown and Darling.

Plenty sticks and carrots from the UK Govt at the moment.

Problem for me is, if the vote is No (whether out of choice or coercion), you will likely find the carrots will be chucked on the compost without being distributed, and the sticks will become bigger sticks.

APD could be devolved NOW - but they won't do it...too much of a moneyspinner for Westminster.

MerchantVenturer; despite what the Sunday Times might have said, at the moment, Labour and the Conservatives have made no firm or unambiguous commitment to further devolution for Scotland. The LibDems published a paper last year discussing the possibility of further devolution but there is no consensus between that party and the other two main Westminster parties about further devolution. Quite the opposite in fact. Recent statements from Labour and the Conservatives suggest that no joint position will be proposed.

A significant number of Labour politicians are rumoured to be likely to boycott their annual Scottish conference this spring because they object to any further devolution. The Tory Leader in Scotland, Ruth Davidson, was asked on a TV debate recently what additional powers she proposed in the event of a no vote and she couldn't make any commitments. Johann Lamont was similarly unable to offer a single additional devolved power when she was quizzed on a TV debate earlier this week.

As support for a Yes vote continues to grow in Scotland, it is possible that the parties that make up the Better Together campaign might be forced into making some kind of formal commitment but it looks unlikely at this time.

I remember prior to the 1992 general election John Major indicated that he would look sympathetically at devolution for Scotland if the Tories were re-elected. They won the election, Major "took stock" and decided to do nothing. Scotland has lots of experience of vague hints and carrots from Westminster disappearing like snow off a dyke.

It isn't Scotland that's the member of the EU, it's the UK. There are many EU requirements which are dealt with by the UK Government on behalf of the constituent governments of the UK, and not the individual nations


Hopefully any passport control will be at the Scottish border - takes long enough to get to work as it is! :ok:

"I hear Mr Salmon wants to set up passport control at Hadrian's Wall to check on all the right wingers wanting a slice of the action"

If he does then he is guilty of starting a war :eek::eek:

Hadrian s Wall lies completely within England and at some points (eg Wallsend) is 67 kms south of the border..........

There is no such thing as an EU passport.

Persons living in Scotland hold British Passports, French passports, Irish Passports and passports from many many countries.

EU has NO say in what occurs in Scotland regarding passports and attempts to claim as such show a deep ignorance of the split between National and EU rules.

The real problem will come if the EU says that Scotland has to join both the euro and Schengen

In fact you'd expect MORE air travel into an independent Scotland - for a start every UN agency and NGO will set up an office in Edinburgh (no-one will go to Glasgow) and they'll all have to travel back and forth to London to get anywhere else outside Europe

Then there will be the IMF making regular visits to make sure that the Stabilisation Plan is working after the currency crashes.............

Again you would find member states would oppose the setting of these conditions.

Come now, HH, you're being ridiculous.

Why would anyone travel to London to go outside Europe when they can go to Amsterdam, Paris or Frankfurt?

And I don't see sterling crashing..

Why would anyone travel to London to go outside Europe when they can go to The US, Canada, UAE and soon Doha direct avoiding London and Europe. Oh, wait isn't that what independence is all about? :E

I think it's entirely right that the good people of Scotland have been given the chance to say yea or no, personally I don't care which way they vote and I don't think it will make much difference to Scotland in the longer term, indeed they may well be much stronger because of it if they vote yes.

The impact on the UK will much more significant, with lost oil revenue taxes, ditto whiskey and of course the nuclear question.

The problem for Scotland will be currency using the pound is a no no, you cannot have a country who would likely have vastly different spending policies doing their own thing with others south of the border having to pick up the tab.

The Lothian question is still unresolved and Alex Salmond is a canny Scot and will do everything he can to drive that wedge further in the run up to R day

If they vote yes it's goodnight Labour in rUK if they vote no the 48% that voted yes will demand further powers so it's a nightmare for rUK either way, either way you'll still be able to fly between London & Scotland and it will probably be cheaper Southbound, but who pays, I think many know the answer to that question, actually on reflection by a tiny whisker I hope they vote yes and get into the EU

We're in a colossal debt hole, our biggest ever. Now while I agree APD is counter productive, it's not as if we don't really, really need to raise the money via tax. At the moment, we're still borrowing for BAU.
Because London is a de facto world city like Hong Kong and New York, it has excellent connections and tens of thousands of Scots use it every week keeping a great many jobs in the UK economy. Perhaps what you meant to say was "Stick it tae the English and use anywhere else but their capital?" The elephant in the room is race. The continued attacks on Cameron as a posh English Tory have an undercurrent of anti-Englishness, it's always been there, That wee minded inward looking "ah kent yer faither" mentality and anyone who aspires is knocked down for over reaching and not knowing their place.

Ooops sorry, I am using PPruNe as therapy, I'll stop now. The debate is now focussing on some real world problems and issues that can't be dodged any longer. I am not even allowed to vote whereas a recent resident Pole can take part in making me a foreign citizen in what is currently my own country.

Give it five minutes and someone will be along suggesting Scotland needs an airline, call it a flag carrier and go up against what will undoubtedly be referred to as "London Airways". I spend my days surrounded by people who come thousands of miles to be part of London as a world city and watch my own people stick their noses in the air and offer their support to the Germans, the Dutch and the French. Anyone so long as it's no thae English <censored before the Mods do>.

No, Skipness, I meant exactly what I wrote. No more and no less. For travelling out of Europe each of these airports is a better option than Heathrow.

You've no idea who or what I am so please don't ascribe racial motives to me.

Forgive me, I phrased that badly.
However in terms of the wider debate I think there is an emdemic anti Englishness that the SNP is now, perhaps unintentionally, stoking.

LHR is a much better option than in recent years however it retains some major pain points.

Apology accepted, thank you.

This :)

Sorry meant this as a response to

"But at least they'd be OOR parcel of rogues... "

racedo: I had assumed that because my passport says "European Union" at the top that it was an EU passport but it turns out that, as you say, it is a British one. The EU just mandates aspects of the design of passports of EU member countries, they don't actually issue them.

Nevertheless, the rest of my points still remain valid. Why would it be in the EU's interests to revoke the rights of Scottish people who work in other EU countries from having the right to work there, revoke the rights of citizens of other EU countries (including from the rest of the UK) to work in Scotland, revoke the right of Spanish, French, Danish and other EU fishermen to fish in Scottish waters, etc etc etc etc etc etc etc.

Many experts on EU membership agree that, although this situation has never arisen before, a way would be found to admit an independent Scotland into the EU in an expeditious manner and that Barroso's intervention was ill-informed to say the least. These experts say that there would be no need for Scotland to agree a border controls regime that is different from the UK's nor would the Euro be forced on Scotland.

Comparison with Sweden is relevant. Sweden had to agree to join the Euro as a condition of membership but only when the necessary economic convergence was complete. Subsequent to joining the EU, a referendum was held in September 2003 which saw 55.9 percent vote against membership of the eurozone. As a consequence, Sweden decided in 2003 not to adopt the euro for the time being. If they had voted in favour, Sweden would have adopted euro on 1 January 2006. Sweden maintains that joining the ERM II (a requirement for euro adoption) is voluntary, giving Sweden a de facto opt out. Eleven years after that referendum the EU has taken no action against Sweden for failing to join the Euro. Sweden and the euro - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Sweden's accession to the EU did not take 12 months as I had indicated. It actually took 13 months elapsed time although the negotiations themselves took 11 months. The process of demonstrating compliance with EU rules was however much more complex for Sweden than it would be for an independent Scotland since we have 40 years of experience complying with EU rules and regulations as part of the UK. Pragmatism will prevail because there is no reason for the EU to want to act in a vindictive and vexatious towards an independent Scotland since our referendum is being carried out with the agreement of the UK government.

SkipnessOneEcho - I don't believe there is any anti-English sentiment driving the desire for Scottish independence. There is however a feeling among many people north of the border that the Westminster system is utterly corrupt and morally bankrupt, sentiments shared by many south of the border. In addition, Westminster quite naturally, takes little account of Scotland's priorities because we are seen to be a small and remote part of the country and it is far more important for the UK to make decisions based on what is best for the largest part of the economy which is London and the South East. I think most people north of the border accept that this will always happen and when you add to this the fact that people north of the border are, on average, more centre-left than the rest of the UK there is a longstanding feeling that we don't get the kind of governments that we would want and never will under the current United Kingdom. Speaking personally, I have a huge number of very good friends that are English and I expect that most people North of the border will too. Yes, there's some sporting rivalry but asking Scottish people to support England football team is a bit like asking Everton supporters to support Liverpool or Chelsea supporters to support Arsenal. It's a rivalry, not anything more malicious than that.

In summary, many people north of the border would rather that decisions are made in Holyrood rather than Westminster. Interestingly, many people in England would rather that decisions that effect them are made in Westminster rather than Brussels. It'll be interesting to see how both these debates progress in the coming months.