Yes they are. Let's hope they won't be needed, tomorrow will tell.

The Cosmos brand could only be used a certain amount of time as a condition of sale by the Mantegazzas after the 2014 restructure.

As for Monarch's flights being 20-30% more expensive that FR or easy, that is nonsense by that "analyst" - Monarch's prices are led by the two bigger rivals and there is only a small premium you can charge extra before people just won't pay it. Monarch's EBITDAR is one of the most competitive of any airline in the world, and is a measure of the efficiency of the airline in controlling its costs, which are comparable with FR and easy. The difference is cash - both FR and easy have huge cash piles, whereas Monarch's is more modest - it takes years of profitablility to build these up, and this has been a difficult year because of Brexit (exchange rate hit) and terrorism (e.g. Sharm and Turkey issues leading to oversupply on Spain, etc with only a fixed amount of accom there).

Monarch do hedge fuel substantially again now, although it's true that as part of the 2014 sale the then in-place hedges had to be unwound, hence there was fortunate timing for Greybull when the price subsequently dropped. Hedging protects you from increases in the oil price, hence why any sound management would re-hedge as cash becomes available.

For those not aware the CAA seeks a bond (cash or equivalent) from the airline for an ATOL certificate and from its point of view it wants that bond to be as high as possible since it retains it if the airline goes under. The airline/shareholders would argue that they have better uses for the cash and so seek to minimise the bond in those negotiations. It may be that this year the CAA are being more cautious with terrorism and Brexit risks as it sees them, and you never actually know what is going to be asked for until you get in the room with all the interested parties and their advisors.

Just had a email from monarch advertising flights for next year? Let's just hope everything is ok would not like see anyone loose there job

Interesting post rushed approach , Nice To read something from someone whom appears to know a little about what they are talking about

I use both monarch and easyjet and have to say there is never much in the pricing betwixt the two

Have recently used Monarch on a return trip to TFS as they were considerably cheaper than Ryanair and I could understand all cabin and flight deck announcements in proper English.

Yes they always provide a great service I have to say They somehow seem a little bit more upmarket than the others

Fingers crossed. My personal, unfounded opinion is that a business without an ATOL licence is going to be a lot cheaper than one with and so a bunch of canny suits will be happy to let it fail.

Anyone tell me how many aircraft MON have based at BHX? And if possible the break down of A320/321's? Thanks in advance.

The ATOL question
 

Think people are getting confused about the ATOL. "Normally" airlines do not require ATOL licences to sell seats, only if they add another component, effectively making it a holiday. However I belive the reason the ATOL for First Aviation is so large is because of the near failure a couple of years back of ZB, the CAA insisted Monarch had an ATOL licence in place due to the size of the risk of their failure to consumers. Effectively they had to join the ATOL scheme for every single seat sold, I guess because their balance sheet was shot to bits and therefore would not have met the criteria to hold an AOC due to financial fitness. This is why he ATOL is so pivotal in all of this, because if due to ongoing concerns about financial fitness the CAA do not feel they can issue a renewal, then It would be game over. No ATOL no fly, AOC revoked and that's it. I can only assume there is a game of brinkmanship going on and perhaps that lays at the door of the management, who have been saying for some time they need cash, else they can't get through the winter with a notion that "it'll be alright as Greybull will step if if nobody else does" maybe, just maybe Greybull have already filled their boots and don't want to be last chance saloon, when they've already maybe had their pound of flesh and maybe the management sat on their laurels not being concerned that nobody else (buyer, lender or institution) would put their hands in their pockets because good old Greybull would step up to the plate and maybe, just maybe Greybull don't want to and hence why the CAA are spooked. Seems to me that although CAA may have jumped the gun on the actions it looks like they have taken, maybe there was (and remains) good reason for them taking the decision - if nothing else it's probably brought the whole thing to a head. I feel for the staff but by the looks of it, since the management recognised the cash flow hole some time back, their lack of visibility to the regulator on how the hole would be filled is quite probably the cause of all this. Let's hope there is a white knight out there, but whatever happens the same will play out this time next year too. EBITDAR is all well and good but for all we know the "I" in EBITDAR on loan payments to Greybull or depreciation might more than wipe out the £40m reported EBITDAR.

Rushed Approach, Would be interested on your thoughts on this... Monarch is quite unique now in selling seat only online with bonding under an ATOL. Is this a requirement imposed on them? (as this adds £2.50 to the selling price). Could they consolidate under one ATOL to reduce cost?

ATOL and EBITDAR
 

Remember in this game cash is king

3x A320 & 7x A321 (one A321 on Standby).

Schedule in for both of the united 747's to go to Frankfurt Hahn tomorrow as UA2140/2141

Military trooping flights?

Unlikely they would use Rhine Main AB

Dear Guardian,


Are you sure about what you have written? Are you refering to an operating licence for Monarch Airline or the ATOL for Monarch Holidays?

Confusion reigns.
I do not think that Monarch scheduled flights are covered by ATOL. An ATOL certificate must be issued at the time of booking and certainly this has not happened on my next three bookings. From memory ATOL certificates have not been issued for over a year.
Bookings with Avro are covered by ATOL. Bookings for flight plus accommodation are covered by ATOL. Packages are covered by ATOL.

I don't know what they are, there are still schedules for flights to the UK too.

As a bit of coincidental irony, given their current positions, I found this paragraph on the telegraph website (from 27 March this year):

A spokesman for Monarch denied that there is a "sale process" underway but said, "Monarch has sought the assistance of Deutsche Bank who will look at both inbound and outbound opportunities."

Such a difficult time for all, compounded by the fact that negative trading publicity will impact credit terms with suppliers, fuel companies, handling agents, airports etc. Have been there before and thankfully came out the other side. Have to say there are people on this thread that need to look at themselves in the mirror. You may discover that there is no depth to shallowness. Best of luck to all at Monarch, I know it's not easy!