What are the figures?
 

OP

Should the worst case scenario happen and Baby were no longer operating, what are the relevant pax figures for both Bhx and Ema onver a 12 month period.

Do you have any idea as to how many pax we are talking about and who might pick them up?

"BA have never been interested in low cost - even Go were not really low-cost"
They werent ? Separate base, separate fleet, flights for £5, buy on board...

The thing is Go still had the massive overheads of BA, not to mention the top heavy management.

As for BHX/EMA, Jet2 are going a great job of stealing baby's thunder certainly at EMA. Should baby be shut down, I'd expect to see 7/8 Jet2 aircraft at EMA overnight. The brand has done extremely well, much better than expectations operationally and most surprisingly/importantly, financially. I'd expect Ryanair to blitz with increased routes. Perhaps easyJet might regret pulling EMA the way they did. I'd imagine the same for BHX, I know Jet2 are interested but I'm sure Ryanair & flybe would jump on the brummie brand wagon with increases.

In the short term there would be substantial passenger decreases at EMA/BHX but long term the routes would be well served again a year on. Whatever happens to Baby, it cannot rest upon its laurels in the midlands. Like it or not, the big 2 have now become the big 3 (in the UK loco Market anyway) Ryanair, easyJet & Jet2. Even the most loyal baby supporters must agree that there needs to be a major product overhaul, fleet plan and dramatic restructuring to keep baby a profitable operation.

I have always had good experiences with baby, and it's terrible to think of another UK airline going, but is it really realistic to see baby being able to compete with the biggies without the financial backing of luftie/bmi?! I hate to say it, but I think there is a blood bath coming and it may be a sad end for baby. :uhoh:

If baby was really profitable and an optimistic operation, surely lufthansa would charge IAG MORE to include it in the deal, not less? Good luck to all the baby guys and gals.

BHX
 

Monty Gordo

Based on four aircraft in summer and 2/3 in winter I would say about a half a million passengers if they went completely.

What would be replaced is difficult to say. When they cut Rome, Lisbon, Barcelona and Madrid last time nobody rushed to take any of those routes despite the healthy load factors for most of the year.

Ryanair maybe would add additional capacity to the sun routes as would Monarch, flybe would increase Belfast City....City routes????????

flybe are as inactive as ever at BHX for new routes and whether the 175
will change that who knows.

righthandrule

Interesting points you make about Jet2 at EMA, as I was shocked at the lack of utilisation of the aircraft last summer and they are almost invisible this winter. Granted the 2012 schedule is a great improvement and Jet2 do seem to have an advantage that they don't seem to need to fly all their aircraft as they own most of their fleet compared to baby who have leases to pay.

EMA's figures last summer were okay but they were up against an atrocious offering from BHX which will not be the same in 2012 if all goes to plan with an extra baby and two extra Monarch aircraft.

Pete

Nothings changed!
 

Nothing new or unknown here, DLH agreed a few months back to sell bmi group to IAG and have now agreed a price to do so. Baby and regional are wholly owned of bmi group and therefore any buyer acquiring the shares of bmi will get both regional and baby, simples.

Regional has taken a little longer than planned and baby's interested parties have had to play second fiddle to the IAG and last minute VS bids, now that's out of the way we need to get Xmas out the way and move on.

If either deal was to fail then IAG will have to taken on the liabilities, hence the lower price to reflect these, be under no doubt the money flow will be from DLH to IAG and DHL still have the pension liabilities for bmi.

Clearly people have different views on baby's product offering, but the paying public is what counts not Ppruner's!

The old chestnut of ageing 737 comes up every few days, but remember Jet2 classics are older!! Jet2 haven't even bothered turning up for the winter ski season in the midlands.

That baby will be sold(given away) or closed is probably correct, in the mean time its very much business as usual and there is no hemorrhaging of staff, staff moral or customers more importantly, of course uncertainties is less than ideal for all, but we deal with it, its hardly new in bmi is it?

So I remain 100% confident that baby will have a future under a new owner and there will be NO " Iranian" style wiping of baby off the map at EMA by Ryanair and certainly not Jet2, parking a 757 for weeks on end with engine covers on is not a business plan at best its a billboard and should have been flying to Egypt had events not over taken them.

So we wrap 2011 up where we started, but hey ho ho ho we are still here, bring on 2012 i say,

Merry Xmas to one and all and a Happy new year:ok::ok::ok::ok:

WW and MME
 

So it looks like the judgement is still under appeal and in the meantime the ownership of both WW and MME has changed at least once, with more changes on the way - interesting with £15m (?) in the balance...

Does anyone know who is interested in buying baby? As well as Jet2 having old cart horses Thomson, Monarch and Thomas cook have their own fair share too. The brand is well recognised and lately has been coming up trumps for punctuality and customer service, probably better than for a long time in fairlness. It would be a shame if they were not given the chance to carry on.:=

This reminds me of the quote Stelios made back when he was still running his airline and not trying to destroy it. He asked either BHX or CVT to 'make me an offer I can't refuse'.

Were baby to exit BHX (or everywhere) completely, I'm sure Easy would take a good look again, doubt they would want to go back to EMA, if they thought there was a long term future there, they would have held on, they are a far bigger brand that the tiny one.

CVT obviously keen too to get back in the game, but I would suspect Easy could talk to both, and use CVT as a bargaining chip to get a good price at BHX - after all, it really doesn't look good right now going past a big Ryanair parking lot.

With regards to the punters, they will probably tolerate relatively old aircraft, afer all, they aren't that ancient, Ryanair had 732s not that long ago. They probably don't think too hard about the brand offering, if the service is reasonably reliable and it takes them to the Costas at a fair price. But one thing they will worry about is whether or not to make an advance booking with an airline who's future is very uncertain.

We've seen too many airlines just vanish overnight, and even if baby may still be a going concern, and it may be absorbed into another entity, or wound up with dignity, people still make a whole load of other arrangements with their flight bookings (hotels etc), for which the airline has no consequential liability if they cease operating.

Speaking of which, is there a precedent for an airline being wound up by its owners voluntarily, announcing a date to cease operations and honouring all bookings until that date? Considering how occupancy levels would drop off during this period, can an airline be wound down in this manner?

Is it possible IAG could sell on WW if they landed up purchasing it? In terms of people buying seats there hasnt been that much press exposure, nothing to the degree say of TCX. Very liittle mention of WW press wise and as far as a lot of people will be concerned bmi has been bought, its not till you read further into it you realise all the dynamics.

I presume they just don't want the hassle. How would you add value and sell on at a profit, what are the assets to strip. BMI mainline, with slots at LHR and 320 series fleet clearly has value to BA, I presume there is a niche for Regional, because some of their yields are huge.

Reading the press articles it looks like they really want rid of WW, I daresay if the price is low enough someone will always take it.

But that is still assuming the value is in positive territory. The baby is now almost a ten year old, a lot of money has been invested in his education, what profits are there to show for this?

Wasnt "Go" managed independently with Babs Cassani ?

Go was sold to 3i capital and then ran independantly till they sold to EZY

No. They may have been low(ish) fare, but they were not low cost. Expensive brand consultants, focus groups, etc etc, as opposed to the Easyjet / Ryanair self-branding. Much of the background paperwork was directly lifted from BA - hardly low cost!

For proof, look what happened when they went for Scotland - Dublin. FR wiped the floor with them, and drove them off the routes in a few months with very low fares while still making money.

@Inkjet
I think the difference following the latest news release is that BA see baby , as not as having little value, but as a definite liaibility given the "substantial reduction" in the price paid overall if baby is included in the deal. To me, this sends out a clear message that BA are looking at closedown if it goes to them, and the reduction is to cover the liabilities on redundancies, aircraft and property leases. The only hope I can see is that DLH have accepted this deal on the basis that they have a solid offer in the background for baby, as we know they have for regional. As I said, I don't know who would want baby in its' current form, and there appear to be no rumours as to such a buyer in the background. Realistically, I can only see Jet2 wanting it for the routes and airport access; while their classics may be older than baby's, I believe they do have some NGs on the way.

I do not want to see baby disappear, and as someone unemployed for some time now I have every sympathy with those whose job prospects are less than certain, but I think baby came too late to the market, and has suffered through piecemeal development and constantly changing aims and aspirations, rather than building core markets. Sad times indeed.

MD

MidlandDeltic
 

Agree with much of your post, i don't agree however that baby came to the market late, they have been around 10 years next month.

BA will not close baby down before the end of Summer 2012, in simple terms it would cost to much to do so, baby makes money over the summer, but manages to loose even more in winter. BA must now wait for competition clearance before they can do anything and are not expected to conclude the ownership procces until April 2012, in the mean time they have lent bmi £60m to cover winter cash flow secured against its slots should the deal fall through, so as you can see there is no impact on the little fella! at least in the short term.

The next indicator will be release of baby's winter 2012/13 program, if it were to end up with BA i don't think there will be one, detailed planning is well underway for this however and i expect it will be on sale in March.

It does have a substantial core business with many very profitable routes, but it has been starved of investment and the constant moving of goal post by the bmi board who wanted it to stand on its own two feet, but wouldn't let it do so.

The whole BA thing is largely irrelevant, baby should all things being equal be with its new foster parents by early February

Finnally as we say good by to 2011, lets let the people who are charged with selling/buying baby have a Xmas break and come back in early in the New year and put this ownership issue to bed.

Happy New Year

MidlandDeltic;
while you are right in saying that Go were not exactly low cost, the reference to what happened to them when they entered Scotland Dublin is not especially proof of anything. It would have been no different for Easyjet or any other airline for that matter, had they started flying the route.

I disagree strongly that Ryanair made a profit on Dublin Scotland route in competition with Go. Most seats on DUB EDI were priced as low as £5, I remember booking on a Thursday to fly the next day at £5, most morning and evening flights were packed with day trippers paying next to nothing to fly. Outside of first and last flights of the day in each direction, the loads were poor enough. There were now 7/8 extra 737s in each direction compared to prior to Go when it was only EI on the route with 2/3 F50s per day.... So there was massive over capacity. Ryanair lost buckets of cash and albeit lost alot less than Go did. However, Ryanair saw this as a major investment in terms of making a statement to intending entrants to their patch especially in Ireland.


EI-BUD

A few years later mytravellite (RIP) entered the BHX-DUB route and 2 minutes later FR went from 2 to 5 flights a day and started routes from BHX to spain on a W pattern to try and drive them off. FR backed down in that one, blaming guess what - landing fees. The same FR thats vanished from DUB - ABZ since EIR appeared, blaming guess what - landing fees! I dont believe any airline in this market can bleed itself to death so I dont believe for one minute nobody can compete with them. Another such case is EZY who backed off EMA scottish routes that WW still operate.

mart901

Of course other airlines can compete with FR, but they must be able to differentiate themselves in some way that takes a focus off the price.

The example you gave of ABZ DUB is a case in point, EIR can differentiate by 1. flying a smaller realistic size aircraft with good value tickets,2. EIR are not totally reliant on point to point ABZ DUB pax as they have the advantage of feeding pax to EI US network. 3. 738 is not suited to many thinner markets such as DUBABZ and other tried markets where no competition exists such as DUB HUY, DUB CWL.

Interestingly enough in terms of Go, they despite being not so low cost etc they did start flying Scheduled low fare routes to Sun destinations and these were a success from the start. EZY and FR did follow their lead on this one, when prior to that these markets were the remit of the package holiday companies and charter airlines... And how things have changes since then!

EI-BUD

And back to BMI Baby . . . . .

fr-