The weather..........

...is cr*p.

EI LHR Timetable
 

The times for BFS-LHR from April have changed. BFS was to get Cork's current schedule (minus the fifth daily flight) which included a morning flight from BFS and a late flight from LHR. Cork was to get Shannon's old schedule (plus the fifth daily flight). However there was uproar amonst the business community down here in Cork since we would no longer have an early morning flight and the last flight back from LHR would be at 19.30. As a result of this EI have reversed their decision and BFS will now get Shannon's current schedule. However this means that there will be no late flight to BFS. The last flight from LHR will be at 19.25. However there will be a 21.30 flight from BFS to LHR. This change will also mean that just two planes will be based at BFS. The third will overnight at LHR.

Caa July stats
 

Just had a look at the stats. Some of them stand out for me.

Flybe Bhd - Bhx 17500 pax down 30%
Flybe Bhd - Man 17783 pax down 21%

WW Bfs - Bhx 18700 up 18%
WW Bfs - Man 18561 up 24%

WW beat Flybe on these routes for the first time I think.

Looking at other Flybe routes out of Bhd, it seems that most of them have seen a drop in pax. How will this affect profitability? For the year to-date, Bhd is down 3.8% and Bfs up 4.4%.

One thing I can't understand is why WW don't increase frequency on the Bhx route, it is performing as well as Man in terms of pax nos.

true blue

Could the BE flights be suffering from the competition at BFS?

Obviously WW are now ahead of them on these routes, which means less people are visiting the BE website and more the WW.

Also, the introduction of EI, FR and increased services of LS and EZY isn't going to help BE's BHD base as they cannot keep up with the prices as they operate smaller aircraft.

Ww Bfs-bhx
 

True Blue

I have followed the BE/WW Belfast routes with interest and the worrying aspect for BE is they have not reduced frequency.

It remains seven a day but they did downgrade the first and sixth BHX
outbound to a 145 which was a mistake. These flights often had over
49 pax and relying on them travelling on later services is a gamble.

Baby really should have added a forth flight even just for July & August
which could have been fitted in probably at the expense of an EDI or
juggling another flight.

Next summer I would be amazed if flight number 4 is not added. However pre July I don't think the fares charged indicated that they were making "loads-of-money" on the route and this probably explains their decision.

The July load factor was still only 73-75% but August has been fantastic and I am sure that they will want to stick the boot into BE as much as
possible.

Pete

The problem lies with BE punctuality on the route stemming back to March / June. The difficulties, which Flybe acknowledged, have left a sour taste in some passengers mouths and therefore until usual high standard punctuality resumes on a consitent basis I think BE passenger numbers will drop. Having said that, I notice that WW punctuality is no different (statics show that BE actually were better than WW nevertheless) so maybe it is down to suitability and ease for passengers.....maybe BFS is more convenient now because BHD are struggling with the number of flights/queues and other stuff (just a thought)

With regards to rotations, the D8-Q4 is fantastic for money saving. Even if the aircraft has 15 - 20 people onboard the aircraft can still make a profit because the operational costs of the a/c are so small.....thats why BE do not cancel on the day for 'commercial reasons' because they have no need to. :) I just can't wait until they get rid of the ex BACON fleet as they are useless.

WW/BE
 

ACDC2604

Quote

"WW punctuality is no different" - agreed to a point & often over-looked

" just can't wait until they get rid of the ex BACON fleet" -agreed

BHX-BHD needs to be all Q400 to maximise rotations and hopefully profit, a 195 would be a waste and the 145 is well.....just get the crews on-line!

I still think that Baby will go 4 a day once they get the Spring and Autumn
load factor close in on 80% but there is still a way to go.

Pete

I agree that BE have suffered in recent months, really due to the aquisition of BACon, however the winter is not looking very rosy for most. We have already heard of FR reducing its fleet at STN. They will blame this on the charges levied by BAA but they know all too well that yields are beginning to go in the wrong direction and there is the need to stem this.

WW would be crazy to increase frequency on BHXBFS, BE's Q400 can more than compete against the 733's and BE also have the deeper pockets to see them through any pricing spat. Equally BE would be stupid to operate this as a sole Q400 route. The aircraft BE uses ideally suit the capacity required at the times of day with the 146/195 on the early southbound ex BHD and (eventually) the Q400 on the early northbound matching the general traffic flow.

I think BE/WW may be on a par at the moment on routes such as MAN/BHX in terms of passenger numbers however BE are in a much more advantageous position to remove/add a rotation to take advantages of minor fluctuations in the market. WW don't have this so easily and an extra rotation here and there dumps a large amount of capacity into the market place that may then prove difficult to fill!

Bhd/bfs/bhx
 

JobsaGoodun

I agree that the first southbound does at times exceed 78 and so does the last outbound from BHX. However this is no more than a couple of times a week unless there is a major trade show on at the NEC.

Is this sufficient for a 195? I assume that there is an intention to use
the 195 once the 146 has gone?

Baby averaged 109 per flight in July on the BHX-BFS and I agree to a
point that they will not rush in with a fourth flight until these kind of
figures are sustained month in month out and not just summer peak.

What is undisputed is that to lose 30% of your pax as flybe have on one route without reducing the number of rotations is a very worrying trend, especially as it was a peak travelling month (volume not yield particularly)

Pete

I don't disagree with anything you've said however this will not be a trend for Flybe. If this blip were to continue then I would anticipate BE to either reduce fares or remove rotations. BE will claw back these passengers once the situation improves regarding their general operational punctuality and performance.

BE may be entirely happy about the situation if the yields are good. There is nothing to say that those 18k pax aren't generating the same values as the 23k from last year. BE will be back in force again shortly but it will be interesting to see how things develop over the next few months. I'm not sure that they are too worried about WW just now.

Having looked at the planned rotations (planned in the sense that Embraer may delay deliveries further) BE have intentions to put E195s on the BHD-BHX, MAN, LGW and some others. If I remember correctly, the majority of BHD BHX runs are on the Q400 with 2 (I think) on the E195 a day but don't quote me on it......not at my desk so am using pure memory (which is on its way out as it is)

Air Berlin flights from BHD to STN are still not available for the winter schedule, at what stage are they likely to announce officially that they are withdrawing from the route and clear the way for Ryanair to make the second part of their announcement. To hold off until after the judicial review in September will not give them much time to sell seats, even with their formidable marketing machine.

Fr and Ei at Belfast
 

Just been thinking for a few days about how it might pan out with these recent developmemts at the two airports.

Fr have been making life very difficult for Ei with the recent announcements and that suits Fr well. They have decided to throw their future in with Bhd, which will have some problems to overcome before Fr will be able to operate a sizeable operation there.

Ei has seen Fr encrouch on many of their routes out of the South. In my view, Ei probably sees the opportunity to expand at Bfs, but Fr face many challenges to be able to offer any realistic competition from Bhd. Ei could operate many routes out of Bfs, if they are available, Fr will probably not be able to compete effectively.

It remains to be seen what damage to the other operators at Bhd that Fr do. In the meantime, Bfs probably have the operators they want, I would guess that they might prefer Ei over Fr. In the long term, if Fr ever wanted to operate from Bfs, Bfs will probably be able to say no, or offer them a deal on a take it or leave it basis.

End result, Ei can expand without much fear of a hugh response from Fr. Fr will be limited long-term. Bfs under less pressure to do a deal with Fr.
Bhd need to be careful they don't turn into almost a one airline airport, it has happened elsewhere, eg Snn.

True Blue

true Blue
 

I agree on the basis that Fr's operation will be restricted by BHD size and capacity. But I must disagree on the fact that BFS can be less "picky" over its partner airlines.

This has happened before @ BFS BD & U2

Look what happened there. British Midland called their bluff and rightfully so. BHD on the other hand is changing business plans. Areas are being relocated and expanded new services installed.

As long as BFS don't focus on EI and bend over and take it from DM, then they should succeed. They need to work on the infrastructure expand stands area but modernise the airport. It looks awful.

I wouldn't bring my ex wives there and that is saying something :}

Some flash stuff...
 

Folks,

Just flew into BFS tonight and noticed three very nice BizJets on the remote stands opposite the main terminal...and they looked very similar to one another...anyone cast any light on owners / events etc...

I agree that FR will not hinder EI expansion at BFS, looking at their timetables they're only going to have 1 flight a day to LPL, PIK, and EMA, the only reason being that I can think of is that there is simply no more room at BHD (unless they knock down that monstrosety that is the old harbour airport and do something with it). I think if they took down those horrible looking grey fences surrounding the old harbour airport and that old entrance which are STILL there, demolished the garden shed buildings and tidied the place up it would give the airport a more friendlier look, I mean that old fence looks like the huge things that some PSNI stations still have surrounding them from the troubles, really boring and unfriendly. If they did this I think it would give a more AIRPORT feel about the place.

As or BFS, I wouldn't know where to start. After security there might as well be a big sign saying welome to belfast international shoping centre, I mean its all shops and restaurants and nowhere to see planes, all shoved inside a rim-wrecked falling apart building.:ugh: Can't wait until the master plan comes into effect.

Bfs/bhd-bhx
 

Reg the 30% reduction in BHD/BHX traffic discussed by OLtonPete .


IIRC BA Connect were still operating their short lived Bhd/Bhx svce
in Jul 06. They had 4 svces a day in addition to the Flybe svces so
you had 2 carriers flying ex BHD v BMI Baby @ BFS.

I suspect fares were forced down by the competition and this
stimulated the Market and probably hit share @ BMIBaby.


This year there just the two carriers BE @ BHD ,WW @ BFS.


I suspect BE have raised their fares and WW have won some share back.


In these circumstances I-m not surprised Bhd Ttraffic is down 30% but
as this included BA , we don-t actually know what change there has been in BE traffic ( and I-m sure their yield is up ).

the 3 biz jets parked on the delta apron 1 are residents in belfast two euro jet machines and one privatly owned all three are usually parked around the place every day

Bhx-bhd
 

BCALBOY

I have to admit I totally forgot about that folly, which is is unbelievable considering the amount of derision it got when it was first announced.

I have checked back and it ceased on 21/8/06. I have some individual loads but none more than about 25 and several in the teens. It was four a day in the week and I believe twice a day at weekends and at a guess would amount to about 5000-6000 pax but that is probably been generous. If it had been much more I doubt they would have dropped it in August.

I would say flybe lost 1000 - 1500 which the majority you could put down to the 145 on the 0700 and 1845 departure from BHX.

In other words not too bad but it will be September before we get a better comparison.

Pete

It will be unfortunate if AB do pull the BHD/STN however one would imagine FR will step in fairly quickly to take the route over hopefully with better timings than AB. AB's timings are hampered by them not having any based a/c at STN and the operating a/c has to position into STN from Germany and then on to BHD. As a result the morning flight is too late and the evening flight too early.

If FR pick up STN they are likely to announce other routes from BHD at the same time possibly BRS and LTN and perhaps a European destination.

I see Ryanair have changed their times:

LPL: 0950/1015
PIK: 1005/1030
EMA: 1340/1405

3 737NGs at once, incl STN 0900/0930 if Air Berlin keep at it. Should be interesting.

I see Aer Lingus have added Nice for Summer 2008. Timings suggest that it will replace Geneva.

I seem to recall you stating that RYR would be the worst possible for the harbour...changed your mind??:hmm:

Their weekend flights are now mid-afternoon and are completely useless for football fans.

It seems financial suicide on Ryanair's part and will do little to encourage traffic away from easyJet. I know that footie fans aren't the entire market but at weekends they (and other leisure travellers) aren't interested in leaving halfway through the weekend. Mind you, Derry's flight times to LPL have always been lunchtimes....anybody know how well they have been utilised?

Why would they want to fly to LPL, BE and WW fly to MAN which is nearer to Old Trafford!:}:}:}:}:}

On a serious note, football fans travelling to Anfield, Goodison etc. would use EZY from BFS as they can do a day return. If the flew with FR, they would have to over-night, and if you are there week in, week out, it can get very expensive!

ESCNI,
From the CAA's May stats, numbers include passengers going to and from LDY.

STN-LDY 10924, down 14% from 12726 previous May
LPL-LDY 5306, down 12% from 5999
EMA-LDY 4556, down 3%from 4708
PIK-LDY 3374
GLA-LDY 610, down 56% from 1391

Kestrel 909, quoting May's figures for LDY is a bit misleading. You may or may not recall the airport was SHUT for a long weekend, with ALL flights canx!!

Perhaps July's figures would be a better comparison (ref CAA)
:

STN-LDY 14896 +3%
LIV-LDY 7523 +4%
EMA-LDY 6523 +5%
PIK-LDY 5992 no previous comparison
GLA-LDY 1014 -43%

Now, considering the 141 pax limit on the 737-800, that gives loads well into the mid-80s precentage for LIV and STN, and not far off that for EMA. PIK is a new route, and one that surprised me when it was announced.

In future, perhaps you could be more up to date with stats!!

Forgive me, remembering the dates of airport closures isn't a strength of mine, nor is navigating the CAA website.

Sorry to see Air Berlin go, I have used them many times and thought they had a great future, things looked like they were picking up.:( Maybe Ryanair will announce STN at sometime in the near future.
I haven't been able to find the article but a friend read today in the Indy that flybe are starting 6 new routes. If anyone can post the article I would love to know more.
ps that the Irish Independent

This would be the article here: http://www.independent.ie/opinion/an...o-1068554.html

Doesn't mention any of the six new destinations.

A very objective article, isn't it?

true Blue

Fair point though regarding location. Perhaps it should have been called Antrim International or maybe Ballymena should be in there somewhere as it is certainly nearer to the airport than Belfast!

Here we go again......NURSE MMMYYYYY PILLLLLLSS:ugh::ugh::ugh:

I really do feel sorry for people who have taken a wrong turn at some point in their life, just as an opportunity to run an airline appeared to be within thier grasp- ah well, there's always a forum for them to show the world they know how it should really be done!:ugh::ugh:

As for the journey south from Swords International........ (Mind you, it's not too bad if you own a taxi!:))

Heard today that Ryanair are to start Stansted on 28th Oct.

FR1002 Arriving at 0745 Daily
FR1003 Departing at 0815 Daily
FR1006 Arriving at 1625 Daily
FR1007 Departing at 1650 Daily
FR1008 Arriving at 1945 Daily
FR1009 Departing at 2010 Daily

Nothing on their website yet, but should be interesting

That's good news then, better times than AB. I am sad to see them go though as I used them many times from STN, definitely a step above FR and U2.

What I won't miss though, is having to take 1/2 days annual leave all the time to catch the 16:25.

By the way, I heard a rumour a while back that Cityjet were to replace the current Scotair operated Dornier 328 service, with one of their new RJs on the LCY-BHD route. Is there any truth in that, and if so what are the timescales?

Heard about Air Berlin. Where did you get the Ryanair times and flight numbers from if theres no word on the Ryanair website?:confused:

I have a friend who works in Despatch at City ;)

Re: Ryanair to STN

Would be great to see this!
I hope it happens.

Any further word on the subject?