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LS
At least there is a rumour of something happening at BHX even if it doesn't come off ;).....IF LS are looking at a new Midlands base (and its a big if) i'm sure they will also be looking at CVT so BHX are going to have to do a knock down deal, not something they are well known for (like their very lukewarm interest in loco operations full stop).
IMO BHX should have poached LS when they were sniffing round EMA, I still think this was an opportunity lost. We are now stuck with FR who seem to have BHX over a barrel, leave us alone BHX, we have no interest in developing new routes, if you don't we have enough routes in place to make a pull out a very big deal for you. Although i'm sure if there was money to be made on routes out of BHX FR would be there with their faces washed......ho hum! |
LS wouldn't be able to operate their 737-800's from CVT.....
If they come anywhere near the West Midlands it will be to BHX who will offer a deal which (Like FR) will start with a bang and fizzle out later. I can't help thinking that BHX is hampered by the current leadership. Nothing has happened since the changes at the top happened. Everything has gone down hill since then and not recovered in any way. Some bad decisions were made early on based on ego's and not necessarily on what was good for BHX. I don't suppose anything will change any time soon, so back to the rumour mill!! |
Nothing has happened since the changes at the top happened. |
Call100 & Helicraig - loving your posts!
IMO BHX and its management got it wrong way back in the late 90's when it remained resolutely loyal to the BA/full service airline horse and showed arrogance of the highest order when it came to the then developing loco operations, which I believe were viewed by them as an irritating flash in the pan. Of course our loyal BA punters would not travel up the M42 to EMA to catch a flight that doesn't even offer an inflight meal they thought. Well, they thought wrong didn't they! Airports like EMA, LPL and BRS instead took a very proactive view to these new-fangled carriers, opened their arms and have now got very strong networks of routes in place when compared to the mid to late 90's. As a result, these airports now claw much more strongly to BHX's catchment area than ever before. BHX's network meanwhile give or take a few East European routes, IST (hanging on in there! :ok:)and increased frequencies on long established routes, looks remarkably similar to that in the early noughties. Yes perhaps other airports have sold their souls and balance sheets to the likes of FR, EZY and so on, but I haven't seen any of these airports shut down because of their reliance on them. As I have stated before, I am not saying that BHX should have ditched its full service carriers, far from it, they provide an excellent and useful way to tap into hundreds of worldwide destinations from BHX. And I know this is also true for European destinations too - but should pax to/from the UK's second city be condemned to ONLY being able to hub to get around some of the major European cities? No airport should put all its eggs in one basket and having a range of carriers is a strong selling point. But, there should be a choice, it is true for sure that not every route to every major European city is viable from BHX but there surely there should be a better choice available than at present? Despite changes at the top, there has been a continued lack of interest in low cost airlines at BHX. Although it does have FR, MON and WW, BHX is still behind in terms of based units and destinations compared to others. No wonder the management are trying to squeeze as many shops into the place as possible to make up for the stagnance in aeronautical activity!! |
IMO BHX and its management got it wrong way back in the late 90's when it remained resolutely loyal to the BA/full service airline horse In all fairness, I believe that decision was a gross under-estimate of the potential of the lo-cost market at that time rather than any arrogance towards lo-cost operations. Lo-cost was simply seen as a development of new markets which would not impact European short haul air travel to any significant degree. All the European legacy carriers were very slow indeed to recognise the threat from the lo-cost operators until it was too late to react effectively. |
GF nicely put. As I remember Maersk wanted to go loco around the late 90's, but because of the franchise agreement BA were having none of it. That's when the relationship with them started to turn sour. Maersk had very low operating costs compared with BAR and were prepared to open up new routes that would have benefited BHX all round. As I remember pax much preferred the service standard Maersk offered at the time, even though meal services were the same as BAR.
Then along came Duo....................that's another story! |
FR in MAN
I bet Monarch and Jet 2 are thrilled to bits that FR are about to hit there bucket and spade routes in Man. Next winter will be the acid test with Fr having bases in the canary's
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GF...Spot on...I remember being in a meeting with the then MD, Brian Summers, who stated categorically that there was no way that LoCo carriers would operate from BHX....
As for the shops....LHR has, for a long time, made more from the shops than from aeronautical revenue. BHX would not be far away from the crossover point now......Shops up, routes down.... |
Call100
LS wouldn't be able to operate their 737-800's from CVT..... If they come anywhere near the West Midlands it will be to BHX who will offer a deal which (Like FR) will start with a bang and fizzle out later. MOL has often said that his selection of routes (and even more so bases) is driven by the handling fees at each end above all else - and I see no reason why Jet2 wouldn't have a similar logic. So why might BHX offer a better deal than CVT? I would expect Jet2 to talk to both, and I would also expect CVT management to be more hungry for the deal - at the end of the day, they want back in the game, and those portkabins have a very low cost per pax. |
It was my understanding, and I may be wrong, that certain 738's couldn't be operated out of CVT without having available (legally) a portion of tarmac at the end of the runway which is unlicenced. The right to licence this portion was "given up" I believe to gain planning from Warwick District Council some time ago...
... however, I dare say with all the talk of the Enterprise Zone and regeneration that perhaps WDC may not be so stuck in the mud about giving them the use of this piece of tarmac back!! |
Originally Posted by jabird
(Post 6570199)
Call100
Jet2 have 2 738s ex a fleet of 39. Afaik, the issues @CVT restricts some more distant destinations (eg TFS) from being operated with a fully laden 738, with a particular engine type - as used by FR. Have never seen a good breakdown of exactly which routes would be affected and how much - would always appreciated a more detailed technical feedback from anyone who can. MOL has often said that his selection of routes (and even more so bases) is driven by the handling fees at each end above all else - and I see no reason why Jet2 wouldn't have a similar logic. So why might BHX offer a better deal than CVT? I would expect Jet2 to talk to both, and I would also expect CVT management to be more hungry for the deal - at the end of the day, they want back in the game, and those portkabins have a very low cost per pax. I don't believe CVT are as hungry for it as you may think.....Great for them if they are, but, I think their priorities are elsewhere. |
crewmeal...Maersk were actually offered the chance to be BMIBaby by BMI in 1999 at the same time that the franchise agreement with BA was up for renewal but because of vanity on the part of AP Moller (they didn't want to lose the Maersk name!!) they rejected the deal...complete and utter madness.:ugh::ugh::ugh:
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Nice to see that work has finally started on the new tower
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I don't want to start a war but Birmingham lost its status as second City status years ago........
And the rest is in the bin. Mods |
June 2011 down -1.1%
No surprises this month, although I had hoped it would just be up despite
by own estimate (857000). CAA Figures June 2011 860649 -1.1% rolling year 8640255 -1.3% ATM's 8051 -2%. The June 2011 figure was higher than June 2002 but well below June 2003, which was 911622. I am sure this will with give Mr Kehoe some food for thought. In respect Dubai (down 6%) the question I pose is it being squeezed by Manchester's over capacity on their Middle Eastern flights or just a general down-turn, which will right itself in July and September onwards? Qatar & Etihad barely made 50% load factors in June, which is virtually unheard off on on mid to long-haul flights. Guess which routes showed increases - yep KLM (& Baby), LH MUC, LH FRA (although not great), LH DUS, SN BRU and LX ZRH. Even TK was up so a good month for STAR at BHX. Pete Well off to buy some rose-tinted glasses not from Birmingham of course, as it will be closed at this time on a Friday with everybody tucked up in bed with their hot chocolate (can we afford Hot Chocolate here in the Midlands?) :rolleyes: |
:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes: :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes: :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
Bagso go do your trolling somewhere else and Bagsoff!! I think you need to step outside the huge narrowminded bubble your in and smell the coffee before you go accusing others of being in a bubble! never read so much cods wallop in my life!! |
Originally Posted by Bagso
(Post 6575817)
787Heaven
Can I suggest that we have a grown up discussion based on facts without childish dare I say petty intervention ? :ugh: In the meantime, back to the airport........I see they have purchased more of the needed land and the extension is going ahead as planned with a 2014 completion date..... I guess they could use 'The Clock' as a new social club??;) |
Call100
I suppose the "Clock" is the Pub on the A45 - RHS as you go away from the city. - Surely its well out of the way of any developement . Unless the rerouted A45 goes that way. - Are there any SSI's there: to prevnet "progress" at even this stage.
I remember the place as having traditional broad leaf woodland and relatively underdeveloped old stye small fields - OK perhaps I'm wrong. CAT III |
I think the area is where the diverted A45 goes through once through the tunnelling where it feeds into the Clock interchange....
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What will happen to the petrol station on the LHS going to the city? I guess that will close as it will be in the way of any boundary of the airport.
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Dream Flights
On the assumption that the extension now seems to be going ahead time for a bit of wishful thinking, here's what I would like to see landing on the extended tarmac at BHX
VS - MCO, BGI SQ - SIN AA - ORD, JFK DL - ATL 9W - BOM, DEL, ATQ CA - PVG Air Asia X - KUL And breathe, OK just a wish list but its good to dream! I suppose back in 1985 if someone had suggested a double daily 777 to DXB they would have been laughed at, so maybe some of the above could happen? On a serious note I hope this extension does not prove to be a place for tumbleweed to grow and that it does indeed bring new aeronautical business as that is something that BHX has been lacking for many a year now. I just worry that BHX has delusions of suddenly becoming some sort of long haul magnet when the extension opens, with the best will in the world I just don't think this will happen - and if it did, what then for the European full service carriers who carry so much transfer traffic from BHX through their hubs? I just wish they would get their short haul house in order as well as aiming for the big birds |
June Route Analysis
Monthly figures from the CAA and the average pax per
flight is as usual estimates using the blog and libhome. The routes where flybe are flying are mainly based on what should have operated but due to tech issues and European Bank Holidays I presume not all actually flew. The 2010 figures are in brackets. I believe that the load factors are up in general on last June. Flights lost Biarritz, Prague & Krakow (all FR) - about 10000 passengers. Dubai down again but above 70% but I still think the Manchester Middle Eastern expansion is affecting BHX a small amount. Etihad & Qatar load factors at MAN 50% albeit it is traditionally the worse month for these routes. BHX it would seem has no chance of expansion in this area in the short-term? Star Alliance is the area where the pax are up - SN, LH, SK, TK although UA/CO was slightly down. AF must be happy to shift some capacity to KLM as certain AF flights are constantly selling out and don't let the 78% load factor disguise this. Just need those missing old destinations. BRUSSELS/10148(9576)/48 PAX/57% LARNACA/5036(6638)/194 PAX/91% Paphos/3192(nil)/177 pax/83% COPENHAGEN/6602(6466)/79 PAX/70-72% Avignon/410(nil)/51 pax/66% BERGERAC/1384/53 PAX/55% Brest/740(625)/46 pax/59% La Rochelle/1008(1122)/39 pax/50% LYON/2669(2897)/32 PAX/64% MONTPELLIER/3212/124 PAX/65% NICE/5815(5702)/116 pax/78% PARIS/27564(27908/82 PAX/78% Toulouse/382(428)/48 pax/61% DUSSELDORF/14976(13852)/43 PAX/50% FRANKFURT/24054(23001)/76 PAX/55-60% HAMBURG/2561(2897)/43 PAX/55% HANOVER/5068(4077)/50 PAX/64% MUNICH/13931(11032)/88 PAX/76% STUTTGART/3467(3698)/36 PAX/46% CORK/6373(6713)/53 PAX/74% DUBLIN/44034(45395)/137 PAX/75% KNOCK/3412(3448)/100 PAX/67% SHANNON/2983(nil)/50 PAX/69% WATERFORD/1060(1242)/31 PAX/65% MILAN MXP/4908(3609)82 PAX/69% TRIESTE/2285(2117)127 PAX/67% MALTA/2579(1924)/161 PAX/85% AMSTERDAM/40881(36877)100 PAX/75% FARO/19567(18589)/160 PAX/83% ALICANTE/24127(26504)/157 PAX/84% ALMERIA/3323(1501)/185 PAX/86% GIRONA/4077(5489)/157 PAX/83% IBIZA/9972(9182)/169 PAX/83% MAHON/6144/192 PAX/90% MALAGA/29800(29015)/157 PAX/84% MURCIA/9399(8922)/138 PAX/82% PALMA/19942(17214)/145 PAX/81% REUS/3853(3923)/148 PAX/78% ARRECIFE/8505(6751)/164 PAX/81% FUERTEVENTRA/5203(3121)/153 PAX76% LAS PALMAS/5553(5255)/163 PAX/81% TENERIFE/14129(13644)/161 PAX/79% GOTHENBURG/11336(2154)/29 PAX/68% ZURICH/12767(12099)/71 PAX/71% ISTANBUL/3933(3481)/94 PAX/64% DALAMAN/4974(3480)/191 PAX/89% KAUNAS/3021(3120)/168 PAX/89% BYDGOSZCZ/4499(3985)/173 PAX/92% GDANSK/2674(3035)/167 PAX/88% KATOWICE/2738 (2686)/171 PAX/91% RZESNOW/3138(3075)/174 PAX/92% BRATISLAVA/4490(4314) 173 PAX/91% ASHKHABAD/4334(3939)/127 PAX/69% TEHRAN/3873(3140)/99 pax/51% DUBAI/35717(37972)/298 PAX/72% ISLAMABAD/7432(7689)/219 PAX/68% Toronto/2550(3347)319 pax/92% NEWARK/9064(9283)/151 PAX/86% Pete |
Originally Posted by crewmeal
(Post 6576682)
What will happen to the petrol station on the LHS going to the city? I guess that will close as it will be in the way of any boundary of the airport.
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I still don't understand the case for a runway extension, given what we know about long-haul from the UK regions. Most of the routes quoted by Gay Friendly above could be operated from the current runway at BHX by today's and especially tomorrow's big twins. It is not the runways, it is the way the market works which makes long-haul so marginal from the UK regions. This has been debated endlessly on PPRUNe. MAN has good runways but still craves more long-haul. MAN's network (other than perhaps the Gulf) is always at risk of erosion by new opportunites arising for airlines to place capacity elsewhere, or by global economics tipping the viability of these services the wrong side of profitable. I am personally in favour of some level of government intervention in traffic distribution (i.e. not allowing markets to dictate everything), however I can't see long-haul blossoming at BHX unless it is somehow at MAN's expense, and does that make sense for the country as a whole?
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I suppose the best we could hope for when the runway is complete are Chinese freighters bring in parts for MG at Longbridge. Maybe the Premier's visit was worth while after all.
With the way things are at the moment and given OP's CAA stats I can't see any expansion for Pax routes for the foreseeable future. If EK figures drop any further we may be back to 1 flight a day. (May be a A380) would fit the bill) The only expansion on the horizon at BHX are more and more shops. Any guesses whose next? Primark? Matalan? TK Max? |
Originally Posted by crewmeal
(Post 6577353)
The only expansion on the horizon at BHX are more and more shops. Any guesses whose next? Primark? Matalan? TK Max?
On another matter, I see there has been a shuffle of the directors and some Senior managers to facilitate the expansion team. There are some very unhappy people there at the moment who have been sidestepped.:hmm: |
Winter 2011/12
Well although nothing spectacular as yet there are some positive changes mainly around Skyteam and Star Alliance.
Cityjet are on the way out on BHX-CDG from the winter schedule. The AF timetable now shows all Air France mainline A318's although another forum is reporting the evening flight is a Regional EMB190. Whatever this is great news. KLM at present are to remove the F70 from the BHX route with the 190 taking over the first BHX inbound. The last outbound which for reasons only KLM know was first scheduled this winter as a 190 is now a 737-700 with the 190 moving to the early afternoon departure. The night-stop is a 737-800 and the second inbound a 737-700. SAS bring back the Saturday morning Copenhagen which is great and currently showing as a CRJ900. The Mon-Fr service is showing all MD80's but no doubt all subject to change. Lufthansa Munich has seen some recent changes, despite excellent June loads the LH2510 & 2512 are now back to CRJ900's and these are to stay until winter except for a brief change back to the 195. Winter shows all 195's again though and added to the A320 on Frankfurt amounts to an increase in capacity. Some change at Thomson's due to the Arab spring. Out goes Luxor, Taba, Hurghada and the "never released" Djerba (it was in the booking engine). Replacements are Wednesday extra Las Palmas, Tuesday Boa Vista, Thursday Tenerife and Friday Tenerife. Saturdays from late November until the ski flights start are poor with no weekly sun flights unless some cruise flights are scheduled. I can't see any further Monarch winter cuts but it looks as if Ryanair have started to hurt them on ACE, TFS, LPA & FUE which all see ZB cuts from November compared to November 2010. Pete |
GRO/BHX-3 flights a week to continue...
If you haven't picked it up already a reliable poster on PPRuNe FR page has said that FR will continue at GRO with the usual 3 flights a week from BHX planned for 2012.
Let us hope so..... |
Runway extension..
The proposed diverted A45 does indeed go through the middle of The Clock Pub where it joins the new junction roads to BHX itself.
I believe there is to be no tunnel required now, to make it affordable the plans have been amended I believe without a tunnel. In relation to a dream list of new airlines and routes..yes theres nothing wrong with dreaming. The first benefits will be for Emirates and PIA, who will be able to add more cargo and thus money to the routes. Secondly it will make charter flights to the likes of Las Vegas, Calgary, Vancouver more likely. Would not be surprised to see Virgin adding an Orlando. Other than that, BHX would struggle to fill business or first class to destinations like Singapore..however their new lower cost venture with mostly economy could be a success as could Air Asia. We have to get it built first and at BHX things are never nailed till they are up and running. Nigel |
Markets from BHX runway extension
Reply to Rovermans topic on proposed runway extension.
Think it need to be remembered that the runway extension is there for the long term. I don't agree at present that future aircraft models will be able to operate to far flung destinations from our current runways. The 787 will be much heavier than initially predicted and sure will need in excess of 9,000ft to reach the likes of China , West coast of the States which is more than we currently have. In relation to where the markets will be from, more likely redistribution of long haul flights from Heathrow, although that has eased in the short term due to mixed mode useage of Heathrows runways about to start freeing up more slots. We also have our own Markets with large populations from India, Bangladesh based in the West Midlands and China having the pull from owning the highly successful Land Rover factory in Solihull (hense the reason the Chinese PM chose to come only to Birmingham in the UK outside of London.:D |
Runway Extension
EK don't need the extension, a 77W is quite capable of leaving BHX to DXB at max ZFW and does so regularly. Can't remember a PK leaving cargo due to performance restrictions either, but I may be wrong.
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Flew out of BHX for the first time since it became 'one terminal' - must say I was quite impressed with the improvements. It was also the fastest I'd ever gone through security although having said that had the Islamabad flight not been delayed 6 hours it might have been different a story. It's just such a shame to see that the new pier full of empty aircraft stands! (save the odd Mahan A310 off course)
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Stands
As well as the International pier it seems common knowledge there will soon be lots of space on the Western Apron as well.
Centre cities |
more likely redistribution of long haul flights from Heathrow, although that has eased in the short term due to mixed mode useage of Heathrows runways about to start freeing up more slots. |
Skipness
I agree in todays aspect that its more likely that 'Midlanders' will choose to go south on HST2 than vice versa, however LHR is currently operating at near max capacity. The current government have put a block on any extension at LHR including a 3rd runway so by the time HST2 is supposed to be operational (2025?) LHR will be well and truly maxed out. So which airports in or near to London could take up the slack? LGW? With the HST2 it puts BHX effectively in Zone 5 in London (about 45mins away). This is incredibly convenient and attractive to customers and airlines alike. I doubt you could get to central London comfortably and easily from LTN, STN or even OXF in 45mins or less? but I stand to be corrected as i'm no expert on Londons roads or public transport, but I do know how congested and potentially stressfull it can be. IMHO when LHR finally reaches full capacity and London / Great Britain PLC starts to lose out big time to other major european hubs then the government will quickly do a u-turn. I envisage a new airport being built somewhere in the Thames estuary Hong Kong style but cheap. But hey thats a long way off. |
New Tower
All
Work on the new control tower at Bhx is coming along nicely! Being thrown up at a rate of knots! Only positive currently coming out of Bhx!Certainly no News on routes and new airlines in Bhx! Shame as the facilities are well in place it seems... Barry |
I believe the Tower has to be completed before the extension work starts for safety reasons....Works will be out of sight for present tower.....Unless this has changed recently of course....
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Girona
Ryanair have release BHX-GRO for winter reduced at present to two weekly, Monday and Friday.
Timings certainly good for weekend breaks with 06.30 Friday morning departure and back into BHX Monday 21.15. Still no Bratislava or BZG released or any sign of Malta. Pete |
Ryanair winter 2011/12
This might not be the final winter schedule but almost.
Bydgoszcz & Bratislava released at 3 x week Tue, Thu & Sat Schedule thus far Monday 1) FUE & GRO 2) ACE & DUB 3) ALC DUB LDY 1 X DUB BASED FLIGHT Tuesday 1) TFS BZG 2) AGP DUB KTW 3) BTS GDN DUB 1 x DUB & 1 x FAO based Wednesday 1) ALC DUB LDY 2) LPA KUN 3) ACE DUB 1 x DUB based Thursday 1) TFS BZG 2) AGP DUB RZE 3) BTS ??? DUB 1 x DUB based Friday 1) ALC FUE 2) ACE DUB 3) GRO DUB LDY 1 x DUB based Saturday 1) TFS BZG 2) AGP DUB KTW 3) BTS GDN DUB 1 x DUB & 1 x FAO based flights Sunday 1) ALC LDY ??? 2) LPA RZE 3) ??? KUN DUB 1 x Dublin based aircraft. Sunday after LDY could be Malta with a Wednesday Malta based aircraft. Sunday morning could end up as Girona possibly???? At present I believe less flights than last year but not too dissimilar. Pete |
If FR isn't going to be daring and introduce new exotic routes, there is no reason why that Thursday slot couldn't be used to service LDY! :mad:
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