Hey, be fair to me, I did state that I wouldn't have expected the Alicante route to be reannounced just yet! Could the missing Luton schedule be anything to do with the recent announcement by Easyjet that they are moving the BFS-LTN route to BHD?

Optimism, but not blind optimism. Ryanair have been talking about expansion for years (if only LDY would extend the runway), and they have previously stated that any future routes would be European routes (which seems disappointingly to rule out Edinburgh and rather academically Manchester given their recent withdrawal from there).

Furthermore the runway expansion has now been completed, the apron works should be completed shortly, terminal expansion has been announced, the trial of a European route seems to have been a success.

It can only be a matter of time ...... what are they waiting for!

But sorry, no scoop!

Ah! I see. An argument based on logic. However, we're talking RYR here, and as the recent schedules from Derry highlight all too well, logic isn't something they deal in.

Fingers crossed all the same, as the airport can't continue to operate as it is now.

Correct me if Im wrong, but is there not a 6-hour gap between the DUB at 07.50 and LPL at 13.50 today? Sustainable? Hmmmm.

Alicante loaded from April to October now, twice weekly again & same times as this year.

Alicante route
 

Alicante - Derry from 29th March 2010 to 28th October 2010 to be exact.

Up from four and a half months to seven months service. A fair improvement. Subject to the usual chopping and changing and cancelling of course :)

Ryanair still don't seem to get the Halloween Carnival thingy in Derry though. Extending the flight another week would have made some sense: a plane load full of Spanish with costumes packed into over-charged hold luggage. Unless that would be the winter schedule which has not yet been published.

Anyway extending the October schedule by one week implies they were happy enough with the October loadings and yields though that does surprise me a little. Hey, maybe they'll go year round yet.

737 graveyard
 

Ryanair must edit their timetable live because their website is currently showing daily flights from STN to LDY but no flights from LDY to STN.

Either that or else LDY would need to get that apron extension finished pronto as there will be a extra 737 parked there every day from next April :)

No flights to or from Luton yet. Timetable not loaded or back to daily from STN? We'll see but with Easyjet moving their Luton flights to BHD there is now a larger catchment area for LDY-LTN.

This is good news. I still wonder if RYR have a clue what they're doing though. How is someone supposed to book a return flight to Stansted at the minute?

Dropping Luton also seems strange, but no doubt there will be further developments in the near future. Wouldn't it make sense to base a 737 at LDY, with this airframe flying 2xSTN, 4xweek to PIK, and then cover the Alicante flights Tues and Thur. Then on Saturday it could go off to somewhere like Faro.

Ah, we can but hope!

On another note flew BRS-BHD with RYR yesterday. Couldn't have been more than about 60 pax on there. Then coming down through Dungiven, yet more advertising for RYR routes from BHD, DUNGIVEN!! Surely LDY deserves some publicity, especially so close to airport.

BFS AGP and LDY
 

Well Alicante has been re-announced for next year but what about the possibility of Malaga?

For comparison, last year (2008) there were 97,098 passengers from Northern Ireland to Alicante but there were 187,529 passengers to Malaga, almost double!

Now Easyjet have announced ten return flights per week during July and nine per week during August to AGP from BFS.

So if Alicante worked from LDY, would Malaga not also work or would this jinx the Alicante route?

The minimum number of flights required to operate an international route is two return flights per week, in this case one sixth the total flights, or about 15% of the market, a figure which LDY has previous shown it can capture on various domestic routes.

Interestingly on the ALC route, BFS actually increased its scheduled passenger numbers to ALC this year indicating that the LDY passengers were additional to the existing passsenger pool. (Admittedly BFS chartered passengers to ALC fell but the drop in July was so large that it certainly looked like supply led rather than demand led. June and August were steady).

However it does look like an LDY-AGP route could be successful in addition to the increased service to ALC.

LDY will never suceed as a going concern and will always have to be subsidised by council tax payers.LDY will never make a profit as a stand alone organisation.

Thanks for the constructive input Mutley. Two things: council tax doesn't exist in Northern Ireland, and as you're based in Liverpool, I would suggest you don't know what you're talking about. Who wouldve thought ten years ago that Liverpool would be European City of Culture? If that can happen then Derry can have a successful airport.

Mutley clearly hasn't a clue. There are several airports smaller than Derry in Ireland such as Waterford, Kerry, Galway, Knock, all privately owned and which will endure the recession and develop just as Derry will.:ok:

Amelia ;I completely agree that LDY AGP would do every bit as well as ALC did and probably do better, but the fact that neither Ryanair (nor easyjet) have a base a at AGP and FR not having a base at LDY this means both would be unlikely to start this route, I dont think Easyjet would do it even if they had a base at AGP.

I cant see many airlines coming into LDY when Ryanair are the only show in town. However, if Ryanair did launch a base it would be most likely that the non Uk routes would be predominantly to Sun destinations and a few city break destinations. Malaga, Faro, Girona (for Barcelona), Palma and Paris. These would be the way to go in my opinion, maybe a Canaries route too.

I dont believe that an AGP route would jinx the ALC route, more and more people are doing DIY holidays and so additional Ryanair seats to Spain may erode the sales at the package holiday companies, perhaps grow the market to some extent with some competitive pricing. As far as I can see at LDY many many customers who would much prefer to fly from LDY go to BFS and I have spoken to many people on flights from all over the UK.
Here is some of the common comments that I have gotten;
-I dont think there are flights from LDY to that destination (commonly Manchester)
-2 said that their flight was cancelled before going to LDY and there were no later flights-so low frequency.
-Interestingly one lady that I know who lives very close to LDY was going to Palma and told me she was flying from BFS and I said there is a weekly flight to Palma from literally your doorstep, she said that her husband wont fly from LDY as the runway is very short (now we know it has been increased and she has heard this too), but this is her perception and that needs to be overcome? But how.
-A few people that I know have said when they were arriving or departing there were 2 Ryanair's in together and the terminal was so cramped and they found it unpleasant.

This airport could punch above its weight, with some of the deals Ryanair run they could easily in my view attract alot of BFS passengers. for a host of reasons passengers travel from the Donegal and the whole north west area to BFS & BHD, so not unlikely that the reverse could not happen with people from the Belfast and Antrim areas going to LDY?

The airport need to get the frequencies up and range of destinations up, do a BHD/Ryanair style deals, low low cost fees on non established routes ex LDY on say 3 year cut deal, back with high impact marketing campaign, highlighting convenience and take in aspects of the airport such as the enhanced facilities (being completed) and enhanced runway. What about Ryanair doing a Ticket giveaway in the City centre and surrounding towns? Surely these type of initiatives need to be planned in the run up to next summer when the current work is finished?

Knock Airport has done an exception job at advertising and promotion and development of the airport. LDY could take learnings from there?

Fact 1: There are about 8.5 million passengers per year from Northern Ireland (approximately BFS 5.5, BHD 2.5, LDY 0.5)

Fact 2: LDY catchment area, on routes it has, seems to be about 15% of Northern Ireland pool

Fact 3: 15% of 8.5 miilion = 1.275 million

Fact 4: Recent passengers number increases have actually seen losses increase but eventually the curve turns downwards and increased passenger numbers lead to decreased costs. The local council have stated that they regard 1 million pax p.a. as the break even point.

Fact 5: Prior to the credit crunch and subsequent route and frequency losses (ie: about eighteen months ago) there were just over 1 million seats p.a. available from LDY and it looked like passenger numbers could top 800,000. The council had predicted 1 million by end of 2010. This now looks unlikely but the council are now predicting this by 2013.

Taking the above, LDY will eventually make a profit. When it does will depend on when available seats allow it to, which in turn depends on what new routes are secured and the frequency of existing flights returning to previous levels or even increasing.

ALC carried 15K pax this year. Therefore one would require 67 such routes to break the 1 million pax barrier. But STN used to carry 150K pax and one would need only 7 such routes. Clearly, while routes like ALC are nice, gaining large domestic routes to the likes of LGW, LHR, EDI and MAN are the priority. Lack of these routes is what is preventing the airport making a profit.

As an example for how to reach 1 million pax (taking figures as a 15% of the Northern Ireland passenger pool (2007) or existing route figures):

London (All Airports) ............. 300K ............(Ryanair currently operate to STN and LTN; Formerly 150K to STN)
Glasgow (All Airports) ............ 70K ..............(Ryanair currently operate 60K / Loganair formerly operated 12K)
Edinburgh .............................60K
Liverpool ..............................80K ..............(Ryanair currently operate)
Manchester ..........................65K
Birmingham ...........................65K ..............(Ryanair currently operate)
East Midlands .......................70K ...............(Ryanair formerly operated 70K)
Bristol .................................40K ...............(Ryanair formerly operated 40K but route proved too small)
Newcastle ...........................40K
Leeds Bardford .....................30K
Aberdeen ............................25K
Dublin .................................25K ...............(Aer Arann operate)
Cardiff ................................15K

(How does one format a table on this forum?)

OK, not quite a million in the above example which granted only covers domestic routes, but you get the idea. Lack of a full range of destinations and lack of frequency on existing destinations is the problem. Ryanair with their current aircraft and operational model will never operate from LDY to half these destinations, so finding a carrier who will is a must. However such a carrier already exists: Aer Arann. Question is, why do they not operate the routes?

You're right AE, there is clearly an opportunity for Aer Arann in Derry who should be using the time to focus on new opportunities before in all likelihood, the PSO funding for regional routes in Ireland is cut in 2 years time.

Nice opportunity for Aer Arann on the Derry-Manchester route??? Given no fear of competition from Ryanair...

Good point. That's exactly where they should be starting. That could be a good route. British Airways years ago carried 40K pax per annum.

And despite Ryanair pulling the Bristol route they did prove there was demand albeit at a level to low for them to operate a large jet but it should have been attractive to the likes of Aer Arran.

It makes me wonder if the amount of money spent on the PSO to Dublin had instead been spent on a route development fund, like the one which launched all the BFS continental routes, how much better would the airport be now?

Aer Arann served both MAN and BHX about four years ago. If memory serves they were carrying about 2.5-3K a month. They pulled both routes after a PSO application failed.

Whether, with their recent troubles, they'd expand at LDY, I have no idea............but would be surprised.

Is the PSO actually damaging the airport?

Loganair who had operated from the airport for 30 years, most of them without the the PSO to Dublin, pulled the plug on LDY-GLA which had never been subject to a PSO after losing the DUB PSO.

Aer Arran pulled the plug on MAN and BHX in similar circumstances.

So would the airport be better off without it?

In its absence, would Ryanair who have been very critical of the PSO while at the same time operating one from Kerry to Dublin, be interested in operating LDY-DUB?

On the otherhand LDY would then have only one scheduled operator. But of course if a company's sole interest in LDY is the lucrative PSO contract then they have no real commitment to the airport anyway and are unlikely to present a growth opportunity anyhow, so would that be any loss?

Also Aer Arran have attempted to retrench during the credit crunch by offering their aircraft for wet lease which might explain why they have shown no interest in operating further routes from LDY, though they are still operating plenty of Britain-Ireland routes from other airports.

First of all, Its Aer Arann! Its great to see so many people on about routes an airline should operate not even knowing how to spell the companys name. Arann Operated these routes with great success till Ryanair started to operated to Liverpool Birmigham and East mids ( Not Sure in what order they started). Its yet another deal to get into bed with Ryanair, This is the reason why no one else is operating out of City of Derry. Just as quick as they came they can pull out too, Where does that leave the airport? The Airport in the years gone by should have been looking to attract more operators in the likes of Loganair, Flybe and AerArann. Then there would be a regular service Daily with a timetable that would be better off for the region and business in the area. I'm not sure but I think the Loganair Glasgow flight could have been the positioning of the aircraft into LDY to operate the PSO route.Why fly empty when you can attract some pax, thats why the operated it.

P.s. edited due to poor grammer half keyboard half human :O

Liffy, stones and glass houses springs to mind. Perhaps you could grammar check your entire post.

:D

Otherwise, some very good points in there.

Amelia, I think Ryanair would avoid the LDY DUB route at all costs. Firstly, Kerry Dublin was a major attempt to elbow in on one of Aer Arann's busier route that was said to perform very well. Word is that KIR DUB is one of Ryanair's softest routes in terms of boardings and revenue.

I dont think that the prize Ryanair were after (ie shafting Aer Arann) is achievable at LDY on the DUB route and in addition, SNN DUB has been tried and abandoned.

I think the key opportunity now is for airlines such as aer arann to start Manchester route to routes such as LDY where Ryanair are most unlikely to serve. There are other routes to MAN on Ryanair which could be extended to LDY eg WAT MAN LDY , or GWY MAN LDY?
I dont see why EDI could not be done also. What about Doing a night stop at LDY to allow for an early LDY DUB and get the flight up to LDY for 7pm and then do a hop over to EDI just as they do on DUB CFN PIK CFN some nights of the weeks such as Sundays?




EI-BUD