RYR a hindrance at LDY?
 

Hi,

Interesting discussion. Here's a little chart that I have made from CAA data. The chart shows all pax at LDY, split by route, for the last 9 years. I have coloured FR's routes blue. The line with the crosses shows FR's market share of all passengers at LDY.

Since 2005, passenger numbers at LDY have virtually doubled, and you can see why: The jump is entirely due to FR's new routes to regional UK airports. At the same time, the number of passengers carried by other carriers has fallen, leaving FR carrying nearly 90% of all LDY pax last year, which is a position of complete (and some would say unhealthy) dominance.

Note that FR have canned EMA and BRS, reduced STN and this summer also introduced ALC.

On the subject of the London route and the possibility of a LGW link, I'm not convinced that it would work, even in the context of a stronger and growing economy. My reason for thinking this is that the STN route has only shown modest growth since it was launched.

I can think of two explanations for this: (1) FR are deliberately strangling the route and are limiting the capacity to cream off the best yields or (2) they have grown the market to about 150K which may be the limit, and further increases in capacity will destroy wafer thin yields.

Given their recent tampering with the STN frequency and the introduction of LTN, I think that the second explanation seems the most logical, and therefore adding an additional ~100K seats per year on a Gatwick route would flood what appears to be a delicate market.

http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/4919/ldy.jpg

Nice graph anna_list. Odd why Ryanair reduces services/ cuts routes when particular route numbers are showing to be doing well (EMA). They need to sort out the STN route by reinstating the 2x daily and possibly a middle of the day LTN?

I certainly think they could also work a Newcastle service a few times a week.

Yeah, spot-on Speedbird. Why they messed around with (seemingly) good routes (LDY-STN for example) is beyond me. There's obviously a big market between NI and the LON area, and as AnnaList's chart highlighted LDY routes were doing very well. The winter timetables are even more pointless. Perhaps there's a random timetable generator at RYR. Cheaper than paying someone to think about routes!

If RYR continue to mess with timetables at LDY, the customers will go elsewhere to get a flight that best suits their preferred time of departure. I think this was a major issue in some of the routes being axed, for example the LDY - BRS route. Most people need a morning or evening service. who wants to fly from LDY to BRS in the middle of the day? No-one can get a good business day out of that.

And as you said cuthere, the Ryanair bosses must have a 'timetable generator' somewhere in their offices that hates LDY. Maybe next time it tries to produce a timetable it will produce some new routes? lol

Was looking at June's provisional numbers from the CAA.

I see the Alicante route carried 2439 pax on 16 flights. Average of ~152 people per flight.

Bearing in mind the first few Alicante to Derry flights might've been light in pax, that's a pretty good start. Enough to secure the route for next year, and possibly encourage RYR to add a few other int routes? Who knows?

is LDY - ALC running through winter?

Nope. It's currently scheduled to end on October 24th.

Anna List, that was quite a piece of work you submitted. Very informative!

As regards Alicante, even the first flight from LDY to ALC was full. The flights that wouldn´t have been full would have been the first two flights from ALC to LDY, ie: 4th June and 8th June, as this route is predominately LDY-ALC-LDY despite the aircraft being ALC based.

2439 pax out of 3024 seats = over 80% loading. July´s figure should be higher given that it is the main travel month and that no flights should be empty. What happens in August and particularly September and October will determine the route's future.

Amelia,

The flights that wouldn´t have been full would have been the first two flights from ALC to LDY, ie: 4th June and 8th June

My point exactly.

Having said that, ALC has a big catchment area, so who knows. Maybe some Spaniards might prefer to spend their summers in the rainy NW of Ireland!

Scheduled Flights at Risk from Derry City????

Scheduled flights at risk from Derry City - Business News, Business - Belfasttelegraph.co.uk

Are most airports not seeing large declines in the current trading environment, think most other UK airports are all down. Especially with LDY being pretty small, even a small decline can appear a large percentage.

Surely the Stansted flights from both BHD and LDY would be safe, no?? I would have thought out of all the FR routes from Northern Ireland, STN would be the safest.

Looking at the RYR winter timetable for LDY, the only reductions will be STN to 4x week and BHX to 4x week. Conversely LPL and PIK go daily, with LTN increasing from three to four a week.

So losing 12 in/outbounds, and gaining 8. Unless of course RYR haven't finalised their timetables and what's on their website is incorrect......which wouldn't surprise me!

This afternoons Thomson flight to Reus was diverted to BFS. Anyone know why?

and to answer my own question, it was due to tech issues with the aircraft. outbound leg of flight operated via BFS, and the inbound touched down from Reus at LDY 6 hours late at 20.04 local. A/c then departed as TOM9036 to aldergrove at 21.00 local

From the Derry News:

The budget airline announced earlier this week that it will reducing its use of London Stansted this winter — blaming high passenger taxes and rising charges for a fall in demand at the airport.
But speaking at a meeting of Derry City Council’s Special Policy and Resources Committee on Tuesday Deputy Town Clerk, John Meehan, said the Derry flights would not be affected.
“Ryanair do not anticipate any reduction, particularly in the coming winter.
“In fact, the number of flights will actually go up compared to last year.”

Confusion continues.

route to nottingham is to close

Flights to EMA closed a long time ago.


Regards

EMA Route
 

This is old news, I think. Actually discontinued in Oct 2008 when services transferred to Birmingham.

Aer Arann deny Dublin flight threat
 

Aer Arann have denied that the Derry to Dublin flight is at risk due to Irish Government cutbacks. This flight is subsidised as a Public Service Obligation to the tune of a couple of million euro per annum.

Interestingly while stating the flight was not at risk, this was because the PSO contract has not been threatened, not because Aer Arann are committed to running the route regardless of whether the PSO subsidy is in place or not.

If the PSO contract is dropped or more likely not renewed then would Aer Arann still operate the route or would LDY lose its only other operator apart from Ryanair? And would Ryanair step in to operate the route as they have done elsewhere? Probably not. The route only carries 25000 pax p.a. and Derry would not have as strong a demand for such a service as say Cork or Galway to Dublin would.

It is really amazing to see Ryanair continuing to operate 2 daily rotations on Knock Stansted (and Aer Lingus also have daily service and Ryanair to Luton) for the winter and how many do Stansted Derry get a dismal 4, come lads, When are you guys at Aer Lingus going to doing a daily Gatwick Derry run? Sounds like it would do just as well as Knock, as Eindhoven etc

Airport costs 'are outlandish' - Donegal TD to ROI Government

BBC NEWS | UK | Northern Ireland | Foyle and West | Airport costs 'are outlandish'