Cork-7
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Cork-7
Appreciate its dark times at present but the dawn will come and hopefully Cork will again prosper with route development. Just looking to stimulate thoughts/ideas to get discussions going again on Cork Airport
Aer Lingus
With AMS and CDG now being served by KLM/AF, perhaps EI will look to shake things up a bit. Perhaps a 321Neo to replace one of the current 320s would allow them to serve JFK/BOS and some of the existing routes such as LHR at Cork?
To me it seems that EI has an issue with size of aircraft for expansion at ORK, an A220 would perhaps better serve some ORK, SNN and Belfast routes. Surely they need to look at either getting in this type or partnering with someone that offers such craft (reading on Emerald Airlines, I believe they're intending to again use ATRs?). Such a plane would open up BRU, FCO, MIL, GVA, VIE, BER as well as offering perhaps a better fit on AMS and CDG given AF/KLM are now on the routes. Is there any partner that EI could offer a European franchise agreement to for the regional Irish airport routes, similar to the Stobart arrangement which seems to predominantly serve UK routes?
Europe
Wizz seem to be expanding at several airports and now seem a different entity compared to the last time they were in Cork. Would they be prepared to open routes to VIL, WAW, VIE, PRG or even LGW?
Swiss has been a good addition to the route network with good frequency. Would they consider continuing into Winter season to serve the ski and city break market as well as the Pharma sector, or perhaps even add GVA given there is historical data on this route?
Hopefully once KLM and AF can start to show the market appetite for connectivity, Lufthansa would consider opening a FRA, BER or even MUC route that offers frequency. Lufthansa operates into SNN from FRA during the Summer, albeit only once a week, but offers both inbound tourism and outbound connectivity to VFR audience. Perhaps City line would be a good fit given the size of their aircraft?
Cork is also lacking in scheduled ski destinations. Only MUC is served once a week in peak ski season. GVA, INN, SZG, GNB, TRN, CMF are all unserved by scheduled flights. Perhaps the best opportunity is to try to attract Ryanair to increase BGY as a year round destination?
A final thought on European connectivity is Iberia Express. Given they are part of IAG, would it not make sense to codeshare and sell via the EI website to create more awareness to the outbound market? Better timing and frequency could also open up the route as a city break destination as well as connectivity to South America.
Dublin
Before the motorway, there was upto 7 Aer Arann and 5 Ryanair flights per day. However the US and German markets both have decent road networks yet still have short sector flights serving connecting passengers. Presumably a transiting passenger from hypothetically BOS via DUB to ORK would be cheaper in passenger fees for an airline like EI as opposed to an arrival in DUB? EI offers connections for CFN and KIR so presumably could do the same for ORK? There must also be short haul connectivity potential for EI from these airports, especially on the next legs on the operating aircraft after its arrival to Dublin which would be low risk of missed connections (hypothetical example ORK DUB NCL DUB ORK) but appreciate that involves adapting their business model. I would imagine that the DAA has car park stats showing those booking car parking from the Cork area to help indicate demand, and the DAA would likely benefit from similar car parking revenue in Cork plus additional landing fees if there were ORK DUB flights.
Charges
Is Cork Airport allowed to vary landing charges by destination and time? For example, demand for a fight to Bari is likely less than one to Paris, so could the airport have pricing set by forecast demand of destination as opposed to a standard set price, or perhaps they already do this? I would also imagine that this could apply to times of flight, for example a midday flight probably has less demand than a peak morning flight, depending on the destination. Incentivising Airlines to operate off-peak hours to new destinations could bring ancillary revenue that the airport may otherwise not receive, plus provide work to relating areas such as security, baggage handling, car handling desks, etc where otherwise there would be dwell time before the next set of arriving aircraft.
Anyway, just some thoughts and ideas. Would welcome comments or anyone else's thoughts as to how Cork can evolve once we move past the current situation
Aer Lingus
With AMS and CDG now being served by KLM/AF, perhaps EI will look to shake things up a bit. Perhaps a 321Neo to replace one of the current 320s would allow them to serve JFK/BOS and some of the existing routes such as LHR at Cork?
To me it seems that EI has an issue with size of aircraft for expansion at ORK, an A220 would perhaps better serve some ORK, SNN and Belfast routes. Surely they need to look at either getting in this type or partnering with someone that offers such craft (reading on Emerald Airlines, I believe they're intending to again use ATRs?). Such a plane would open up BRU, FCO, MIL, GVA, VIE, BER as well as offering perhaps a better fit on AMS and CDG given AF/KLM are now on the routes. Is there any partner that EI could offer a European franchise agreement to for the regional Irish airport routes, similar to the Stobart arrangement which seems to predominantly serve UK routes?
Europe
Wizz seem to be expanding at several airports and now seem a different entity compared to the last time they were in Cork. Would they be prepared to open routes to VIL, WAW, VIE, PRG or even LGW?
Swiss has been a good addition to the route network with good frequency. Would they consider continuing into Winter season to serve the ski and city break market as well as the Pharma sector, or perhaps even add GVA given there is historical data on this route?
Hopefully once KLM and AF can start to show the market appetite for connectivity, Lufthansa would consider opening a FRA, BER or even MUC route that offers frequency. Lufthansa operates into SNN from FRA during the Summer, albeit only once a week, but offers both inbound tourism and outbound connectivity to VFR audience. Perhaps City line would be a good fit given the size of their aircraft?
Cork is also lacking in scheduled ski destinations. Only MUC is served once a week in peak ski season. GVA, INN, SZG, GNB, TRN, CMF are all unserved by scheduled flights. Perhaps the best opportunity is to try to attract Ryanair to increase BGY as a year round destination?
A final thought on European connectivity is Iberia Express. Given they are part of IAG, would it not make sense to codeshare and sell via the EI website to create more awareness to the outbound market? Better timing and frequency could also open up the route as a city break destination as well as connectivity to South America.
Dublin
Before the motorway, there was upto 7 Aer Arann and 5 Ryanair flights per day. However the US and German markets both have decent road networks yet still have short sector flights serving connecting passengers. Presumably a transiting passenger from hypothetically BOS via DUB to ORK would be cheaper in passenger fees for an airline like EI as opposed to an arrival in DUB? EI offers connections for CFN and KIR so presumably could do the same for ORK? There must also be short haul connectivity potential for EI from these airports, especially on the next legs on the operating aircraft after its arrival to Dublin which would be low risk of missed connections (hypothetical example ORK DUB NCL DUB ORK) but appreciate that involves adapting their business model. I would imagine that the DAA has car park stats showing those booking car parking from the Cork area to help indicate demand, and the DAA would likely benefit from similar car parking revenue in Cork plus additional landing fees if there were ORK DUB flights.
Charges
Is Cork Airport allowed to vary landing charges by destination and time? For example, demand for a fight to Bari is likely less than one to Paris, so could the airport have pricing set by forecast demand of destination as opposed to a standard set price, or perhaps they already do this? I would also imagine that this could apply to times of flight, for example a midday flight probably has less demand than a peak morning flight, depending on the destination. Incentivising Airlines to operate off-peak hours to new destinations could bring ancillary revenue that the airport may otherwise not receive, plus provide work to relating areas such as security, baggage handling, car handling desks, etc where otherwise there would be dwell time before the next set of arriving aircraft.
Anyway, just some thoughts and ideas. Would welcome comments or anyone else's thoughts as to how Cork can evolve once we move past the current situation
Last edited by corkfly; 12th Jan 2021 at 14:45.
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Cork runway is far too short for the A321NEO, Norwegian couldn't get a commercial load out of Cork due restrictions (well the were hardly pushed by demand), the MAX would have been a bit better but still leaving empty seats. EI will stick with SNN/DUB and pre clearance.
The Aer Arran vs Ryanair face off back 15 years ago was a smash and grab job by FR who bled Aer Arran until they gave up as they couldn't make money. FR gave up quickly afterwards as they couldn't compete against the new hourly train service and the M8 motorway. Yes there is business but anywhere you can reach from Dublin you can go via LHR a token AT42 twice a day might work but only if its for EI.
CFN/KIR are PSO and paid for by the Irish government under contract with Stobart and EI handle the front of house. These are covered by EU regulations due distance and lack of infrastructure. Cork never qualified and Waterford, Galway, Sligo no longer meet the threshold due improved rail and road connectivity
The Aer Arran vs Ryanair face off back 15 years ago was a smash and grab job by FR who bled Aer Arran until they gave up as they couldn't make money. FR gave up quickly afterwards as they couldn't compete against the new hourly train service and the M8 motorway. Yes there is business but anywhere you can reach from Dublin you can go via LHR a token AT42 twice a day might work but only if its for EI.
CFN/KIR are PSO and paid for by the Irish government under contract with Stobart and EI handle the front of house. These are covered by EU regulations due distance and lack of infrastructure. Cork never qualified and Waterford, Galway, Sligo no longer meet the threshold due improved rail and road connectivity
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As mentioned by Blakesdean the Luton 321 operation is medium haul and not transatlantic so there could be a performance issue for longer haul 321's off Cork's runway declared distances and obstacles. Luton's runway whilst similar in length to Cork's has the benefit of no obstacles beyond the end of TORA in each direction ie TORA 2163m TODA 3243m. Whereas Cork is TORA 2133m and TODA 2194m.
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I think Cork is going to have to work with what its got for the foreseeable.
The old terminal wont be opened to Ryanair and the runway wont be extended. No realistic proposals have been put forward for how the runway extension would attract additional custom. If EI or a US airline says "we will come to Cork if the runway is an additional 500-1000m" thats a different story, but right now they choose Dublin or Shannon. My understanding is that the A321neo has better performance than the ceo models and possibly the MAX, so BOS is possible, but JFK marginal.
While the A220 would be a perfect size for Cork and Swiss demonstrated that nicely, no likely operator has it on order, unless AirBaltic fancy picking a fight with Ryanair their -8200s and deep pockets. I think Cork is 'stuck' with AT7s and A320/738s for the foreseeable. I think this recovery will be driven by leisure travel, so I think fewer frequencies to a wider range of destinations is how the departure boards will look. Testing is going to help, but will be an additional cost to factor in, especially for families. So 10+ weekly services to Malaga seem a long way off.
The old terminal wont be opened to Ryanair and the runway wont be extended. No realistic proposals have been put forward for how the runway extension would attract additional custom. If EI or a US airline says "we will come to Cork if the runway is an additional 500-1000m" thats a different story, but right now they choose Dublin or Shannon. My understanding is that the A321neo has better performance than the ceo models and possibly the MAX, so BOS is possible, but JFK marginal.
While the A220 would be a perfect size for Cork and Swiss demonstrated that nicely, no likely operator has it on order, unless AirBaltic fancy picking a fight with Ryanair their -8200s and deep pockets. I think Cork is 'stuck' with AT7s and A320/738s for the foreseeable. I think this recovery will be driven by leisure travel, so I think fewer frequencies to a wider range of destinations is how the departure boards will look. Testing is going to help, but will be an additional cost to factor in, especially for families. So 10+ weekly services to Malaga seem a long way off.
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In a very surprising announcement, Lufthansa have announced Cork-Frankfurt from June 25th on Monday and Friday
It's the route and the airline that we have probably all been hoping for for a decade or more and it now seems planned for the worst possible time.
I think we'll have to wait to see if it actually happens.
It's the route and the airline that we have probably all been hoping for for a decade or more and it now seems planned for the worst possible time.
I think we'll have to wait to see if it actually happens.
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For the period the airport is close due to runway works, are any airlines redirecting services to Dublin/Shannon/Kerry?
I assume in the current environment that they will just hope to absorb potential passengers onto existing services at those airports, but was wondering if this is the case.
I assume in the current environment that they will just hope to absorb potential passengers onto existing services at those airports, but was wondering if this is the case.
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Cork will also be a FR base once again with 2 aircraft
https://corporate.ryanair.com/news/r...-22/?market=ie
https://corporate.ryanair.com/news/r...-22/?market=ie
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Summarizing the Ryanair changes, it looks like
Old routes not resuming
- Budapest
- Katowice
- Wroclaw
- Malta
- Naples
New routes
- Birmingham
- Edinburgh
- Venice
Of course, some of those were operated by aircraft based outside Cork and possibly we could see them return if/when those airports have their flights announced. Budapest and Wroclaw were moved to Shannon, so I guess they'll stay there. There will also be an element of chopping and changing based on route incentives leading to route switches. Ryanair seem to operate Bergamo plus one other Italian route (Pisa, Naples, now Venice) with the service moving to an airport where full incentives are available from one where they have reduced. I guess there is good demand from Lombardy (around 18% of the Italian population) for Bergamo, which counter-balances the need to get those reductions; either that or the incentives at Bergamo make it worthwhile regardless.
Old routes not resuming
- Budapest
- Katowice
- Wroclaw
- Malta
- Naples
New routes
- Birmingham
- Edinburgh
- Venice
Of course, some of those were operated by aircraft based outside Cork and possibly we could see them return if/when those airports have their flights announced. Budapest and Wroclaw were moved to Shannon, so I guess they'll stay there. There will also be an element of chopping and changing based on route incentives leading to route switches. Ryanair seem to operate Bergamo plus one other Italian route (Pisa, Naples, now Venice) with the service moving to an airport where full incentives are available from one where they have reduced. I guess there is good demand from Lombardy (around 18% of the Italian population) for Bergamo, which counter-balances the need to get those reductions; either that or the incentives at Bergamo make it worthwhile regardless.
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Emerald has said the addition of these routes by Ryanair won’t impact their plans for Cork. At just 3 weekly initially, it’ll hardly be an attractive option compared to the likely twice daily Emerald will offer but it will obviously fill a gap until that becomes reality.
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I didn't realise that Wroclaw was in Shannon that long. It's strange they ever had it from Cork then seeing that they don't allow flights from 2 Munster airports to places like Hahn or Warsaw. The general rule seems to be it's one of Cork, Shannon or Kerry, unless there's another airline operating who would steal passengers if they didn't offer a local service.
Regarding Birmingham and Edinburgh, Birmingham is largely a business route and 3x weekly won't pull business passengers from a 2/3 x daily service. It will take VFR passengers, but fares had got very high on that route anyway. I feel Edinburgh is much more at risk considering the passenger mix.
Regarding Birmingham and Edinburgh, Birmingham is largely a business route and 3x weekly won't pull business passengers from a 2/3 x daily service. It will take VFR passengers, but fares had got very high on that route anyway. I feel Edinburgh is much more at risk considering the passenger mix.
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The BHX and EDI routes being offered by FR are very low frequency, as you say. Its hard to know how much business travel will resume, the UK-Ireland market will take a double-hit from the fallout of Brexit and the impact of COVID on business travel. All of that said, a 3x weekly service doesn’t really seem to cut it.
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Emerald will not be able to compete with FR on EDI even with only three a week. DOW are the prime days for both volume and yield. Market pre Covid was c50k annually, FR have just added 55k seats. BHX market has more business content, but the majority of the traffic is leisure VFR and price conscious most will of which will now fly FR. Market pre Covid was c80k annually. FR have just added 50k seats. The primary contributing routes for the two ORK based EI ATR units were MAN/BHX/BRS/EDI in that order, GLA was always marginal. Can't see a case now to justify two units for Emerald at ORK and even one is a substantial risk as FR could launch MAN. It would appear from an airport perspective that protecting frequency is no longer an objective......a bird in the hand.