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UK CAA ban B737 MAX8 operations in UK

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UK CAA ban B737 MAX8 operations in UK

Old 12th Mar 2019, 15:18
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UK CAA ban B737 MAX8 operations in UK

It seems like there could be major knock on effects for all airlines.
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 15:37
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Read the last few pages on the TUI thread
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 15:38
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Its still winter season so TUI should be able to cover their own Ops - but if the MAX no fly ban goes on for ages then yes their S19 season will be a trial for TOM/BY and their Benelux counterparts to cover...
Maybe they are de-mothballing any 757's they have just sent back as we speak.(and keeping the 767's)

As for DY/D8/DI they have a much bigger MAX fleet based in the UK and a semi long haul operation to cover...plus also fly for TUI Hols.

Enter Air will not be able to fly S19 for Sunvil Holidays own Greece and Greek Islands charter series with any of their MAX fleet if the ban goes on into the season.

All to/from UK such as from TK RAM LOT AC WJA all will have to be covered by other equipment.
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 18:51
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Whether or not this was justified no longer matters. The dominoes are falling and the CAA knew they would be on a hiding to nothing if they did not.
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 01:09
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Are there going to be any kind of oddball charters in the UK to cover for the grounded aircraft ? Wamos 747 or HiFly A380 from Gatwick to Malaga or similiar ?
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 09:38
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Norwegian could be in difficulties wilth aircraft dept uk,eire with B737.8 series into that fluctuating jetstrem over the next week or so.......
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 10:10
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Weekend will be the test when the highest usage is, last weekend TUI had 5 B737MAX airborne from Manchester so we shall have to wait and see
but I guess a shortage of spare airframes around will cause some fun
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 18:49
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Sky News: Donald Trump orders Boeing 737 MAX 8s to be grounded after Ethiopia crash

http://news.sky.com/story/donald-tru...crash-11664428
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 19:16
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Originally Posted by mik3bravo View Post
Sky News: Donald Trump orders Boeing 737 MAX 8s to be grounded after Ethiopia crash

http://news.sky.com/story/donald-tru...crash-11664428
At least two US flights have reported that an automated system seemed to cause their Boeing 737 MAX 8 planes to tilt down suddenly.

In reports filed last year in a database compiled by NASA, the pilots said that soon after engaging the autopilot on their planes, the nose tilted down sharply.

In both cases they recovered quickly after disconnecting the autopilot.

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Old 13th Mar 2019, 19:31
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As a product, the Max is a bit like how MS shove out new releases of Windows, half baked, half assed finished. Max isn't a finished stable, safe product Loss of life outcomes. I can tell you I won't step foot on board or put any family at risk by putting them on board this type. Id be happy walking away from a flight ticket if I learned it was a Max. No way will I fly on that airframe.
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 22:51
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Norwegian happy as Boeing will be paying them a huge amount of cash plus everybody else who has one.

Could see Boeing going into Chapter 11 if this continues way more than 3 months as every other plane will also be looked at in detail.

Real danger is that people stop flying because they worried about aircraft. Ultimately people get on an aluminimium tube because they believe they will get out the other end, reduce that a tiny bit and it will kill confidence.

Can see Ryanair looking at the summer schedule in detail now and snapping up some leases to cover.
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 22:54
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Racedo - are you being tongue-in-cheek or serious ? Difficult to tell which it is !
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Old 14th Mar 2019, 00:14
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Originally Posted by davidjohnson6 View Post
Racedo - are you being tongue-in-cheek or serious ? Difficult to tell which it is !
Being serious as Boeing will have to rework every single plane and everything will need recertifying so it could be 6-9 months. In addition nobody will be taking deliveries of them either so your production schedule is shot for 2 years. Boeing will be lucky if cost is under $2 billion because of delays, rework and compensation. Every single plane will need this and they haven't even started yet hence my timetable may be too short. Just updating a piece of software like a laptop will not bring confidence back.

Norwegian struggling for cash and now Boeing will be giving them lots of it, figure it will be a big number per aircraft per day and they have 18 of them plus Norwegian will be claiming liquidated damages for the damage to its reputation, having to reschedule aircraft and being unable to expand as planned.

270 odd planes and a million a month in lost revenue per plane at a minimum in damages soon adds up.

Intel 20 odd years ago had a problem with a chip, it really only affected high level mathematical calculations which they reckoned less that 0.1% of 1% of users would be affected. It almost brought the company down because people wanted the chip replaced even though it had no impact.
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Old 14th Mar 2019, 00:54
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Boeing have a market cap of over $200bn
That tells me investors don't see Boeing going into Chapter 11 any time soon.
Assuming the issue affects just the 737 Max aircraft, Boeing will not struggle to borrow cash at a non-punitive rate from mainstream banks if existing cash reserves prove insufficient. As an absolute last resort, Washington DC will not allow one of America's largest exporters and 2nd biggest defence contractor to go bust over a few hundred 737s

Last edited by davidjohnson6; 14th Mar 2019 at 01:15.
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Old 14th Mar 2019, 04:49
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Agree, but there may well be a further complication if even a small proportion of the travelling public can't or won't distinguish between the 737 Max and the thousands of others without the particular model suffix. Very difficult to predict or quantify but it's difficult to believe that there won't be some collateral damage to the 737 brand. I imagine the PR and Commercial departments of "old" model 737s will be giving this some thought and will be looking for any signs of avoidance.
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Old 14th Mar 2019, 05:11
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Originally Posted by Max Tow View Post
Agree, but there may well be a further complication if even a small proportion of the travelling public can't or won't distinguish between the 737 Max and the thousands of others without the particular model suffix. Very difficult to predict or quantify but it's difficult to believe that there won't be some collateral damage to the 737 brand. I imagine the PR and Commercial departments of "old" model 737s will be giving this some thought and will be looking for any signs of avoidance.
Judging by the near riot on TUI's Facebook and Twitter accounts with their 1000's of their customers demanding TUI ground the MAX, or book them on another type, I reckon this was some way towards the CAA biting the bullet and making the case for the UK to ground the MAX sooner than later.
I think we can give some credence to TUI's customers that they can be well informed as to what aircraft they were going on their holidays with.

I think Jet2 will be sitting there thinking phew! - We don't have this mess to deal with...
Had Monarch survived and had their 737 MAX fleet in operations then this would have been a major blow for them.

Titan will be uber busy...

The S19 package holiday season is around a month away starting up, and whilst I reckon TUI UK can juggle their existing fleet around to cover their 6 MAX groundings (TUI UK have a 7th due to come) the TUI Group in the EU maybe not so easy to cover.

TUI UK have leased a load of 737-800's to Sunwing (who in Canada have had to ground their own MAX fleet) - I doubt TUI will be able to get those 738's back easily - TUI may get recently stored 757's RTS and keep the 767's longer?

Combine with the loss of Small Planet and Germania there are a lot of holiday flights to cover this coming season.
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Old 14th Mar 2019, 05:50
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Originally Posted by rog747 View Post
Judging by the near riot on TUI's Facebook and Twitter accounts with their 1000's of their customers demanding TUI ground the MAX, or book them on another type, I reckon this was some way towards the CAA biting the bullet and making the case for the UK to ground the MAX sooner than later.
I think we can give some credence to TUI's customers that they can be well informed as to what aircraft they were going on their holidays with.

I think Jet2 will be sitting there thinking phew! - We don't have this mess to deal with...
Had Monarch survived and had their 737 MAX fleet in operations then this would have been a major blow for them.

Titan will be uber busy...

The S19 package holiday season is around a month away starting up, and whilst I reckon TUI UK can juggle their existing fleet around to cover their 6 MAX groundings (TUI UK have a 7th due to come) the TUI Group in the EU maybe not so easy to cover.

TUI UK have leased a load of 737-800's to Sunwing (who in Canada have had to ground their own MAX fleet) - I doubt TUI will be able to get those 738's back easily - TUI may get recently stored 757's RTS and keep the 767's longer?

Combine with the loss of Small Planet and Germania there are a lot of holiday flights to cover this coming season.

Don't worry - I'm sure Ryanair will be along soon offering a 'rescue fare' even if they don't operate on a route affected by any cancellations 😂
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Old 14th Mar 2019, 06:11
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Originally Posted by sinbad73 View Post
Don't worry - I'm sure Ryanair will be along soon offering a 'rescue fare' even if they don't operate on a route affected by any cancellations 😂
MOL - maybe he'll start a Ryanair ACMI arm? :P
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Old 14th Mar 2019, 10:30
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Originally Posted by rog747 View Post
MOL - maybe he'll start a Ryanair ACMI arm? :P
Speaking of Ryanair - how many of 737max aircraft due to delivery soon are already schedulled into their summer schedulle? Won't they have to cancel quite a lot of flights again?
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Old 14th Mar 2019, 12:21
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Originally Posted by davidjohnson6 View Post
Boeing have a market cap of over $200bn
That tells me investors don't see Boeing going into Chapter 11 any time soon.
Assuming the issue affects just the 737 Max aircraft, Boeing will not struggle to borrow cash at a non-punitive rate from mainstream banks if existing cash reserves prove insufficient. As an absolute last resort, Washington DC will not allow one of America's largest exporters and 2nd biggest defence contractor to go bust over a few hundred 737s
Market cap means was $250 billion less than 2 weeks ago and it has lost $50 billion since. Investors know that there is going to be a lot of pain and likely zero dividends. Boeing also has issues with the delivery of its Tankers to USAF, 2 years later with mega cost overuns. Airline customers are required to put a lot of money upfront in buying an aircraft, there are numerous clauses in there for later delivery by the airlines. Its why some airlines get into buy new aircraft knowing full well they will be late and then when compensation paid they sell the option on.

The figure I put on it may end up looking a tad conservative as 300 Max with customers. All grounded for how long nobody knows and airlines paying for them and also having to pay for replacement aircraft. Lets say 8 flights a day, $100 a ticket, 200 pax and thats $160k lost Rev or $5 Million a month plus lease costs of new aircraft. Ok that is max but no doubt a number will be agreed upon and as months go on it gets bigger.

Boeing delivered 226 Max's in 2018, 2019 similar or more so doubt any will be delivered for least 6 months. Question is do you stop producing or keep production going knowing you will have to potentially retro engineer what you have worked on.

Around 3 week of April will be the Boeing Q1 results, will be interesting to see what they provide, I expect a big number.
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