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Gatwick-2

Old 30th Apr 2020, 14:33
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52489013?SThisFB
BBC suggest BA may not re-open Gatwick.
Been thinking this myself, consolidate to LHR and save what they can.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 14:55
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Originally Posted by Skipness One Foxtrot View Post
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52489013?SThisFB
BBC suggest BA may not re-open Gatwick.
Been thinking this myself, consolidate to LHR and save what they can.
I'd be surprised if IAG were willing to essentially surrender Gatwick to Easyjet!
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 14:57
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Must be on the cards that Wizz, Ryanair and Jet2 will be looking at Gatwick with new eyes now there is a door that will probably open. Not so good for Stansted and Luton if they divide capacity.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 15:02
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Originally Posted by PDXCWL45 View Post
I'd be surprised if IAG were willing to essentially surrender Gatwick to Easyjet!
Well frankly who knows if easyjet will fully survive this.?
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 15:29
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Originally Posted by rog747 View Post
Well frankly who knows if easyjet will fully survive this.?
they will be ok
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 16:02
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Originally Posted by PDXCWL45 View Post
I'd be surprised if IAG were willing to essentially surrender Gatwick to Easyjet!
Continuing to operate from LGW just to hurt Easyjet doesn't strike me as a very sound commercial policy.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 16:17
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
Continuing to operate from LGW just to hurt Easyjet doesn't strike me as a very sound commercial policy.
It depends if the operation is profitable. BA itself may want to become just a 1 hub airline but it doesn't necessarily mean IAG want to leave Gatwick. They could have LEVEL or Vueling or Air Europa takeover.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 16:20
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Everyone is assuming that airlines like BA and Easy will weather this and the reality is that the outcome for any airline is far from certain. Until we know what/if quarantine requirements are for arrivals into countries, what the social distancing requirements will be for each country, what the pre-boarding/arrivals testing environment and timescales look like as things gear up, all this is far from certain. Fares will HAVE to rise (by a factor of at least 2 and more likely 3). The airline environment is set to change seismically from what it was pre-pandemic.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 16:55
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Originally Posted by TartinTon View Post
Everyone is assuming that airlines like BA and Easy will weather this and the reality is that the outcome for any airline is far from certain. Until we know what/if quarantine requirements are for arrivals into countries, what the social distancing requirements will be for each country, what the pre-boarding/arrivals testing environment and timescales look like as things gear up, all this is far from certain. Fares will HAVE to rise (by a factor of at least 2 and more likely 3). The airline environment is set to change seismically from what it was pre-pandemic.
UK government would let BA or Easyjet fall. They are way too important to the UK aviation scene and especially the London aviation scene.
From BA and Easyjet point of view it would be the price of government help that might worry them. I doubt either would want to give up shares and dividends to the government in the long term.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 17:52
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Am sure BA/IAG would want to keep a defensive foothold at LGW as an even more highly frequent easyJet would definitely potentially impact the commercial performance of LHR with a highly overlapping P2P catchment. I understood LGW to be overall profitable and if it wasn’t strategically of importance why buy ZB/MT slots ? Could be some negotiation positioning going on here ? I believe LGW is important to protect LHR for BA. But then maybe the world has changed. Then again in time LHR will be full again, poss very delayed R3 if they give up LGW en masses they may never get back in. Then where (with lack of R3) do you expand ? Unless of course they are precipitating no VS, open up London and consolidate and grow LHR - bit of crystal ball gazing LGW flleet takes up VS gap ?
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 18:53
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Originally Posted by TOM100 View Post
Am sure BA/IAG would want to keep a defensive foothold at LGW as an even more highly frequent easyJet would definitely potentially impact the commercial performance of LHR with a highly overlapping P2P catchment. I understood LGW to be overall profitable and if it wasn’t strategically of importance why buy ZB/MT slots ? Could be some negotiation positioning going on here ? I believe LGW is important to protect LHR for BA. But then maybe the world has changed. Then again in time LHR will be full again, poss very delayed R3 if they give up LGW en masses they may never get back in. Then where (with lack of R3) do you expand ? Unless of course they are precipitating no VS, open up London and consolidate and grow LHR - bit of crystal ball gazing LGW flleet takes up VS gap ?
No one is going to be expanding at Gatwick for a VERY long time ! Or building a third Heathrow runway, for that matter.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 19:03
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If there is capacity at Heathrow and all the signs suggest this, I'm afraid LGW becomes redundant.

I doubt even VIR or EZY would hang about.

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Old 30th Apr 2020, 19:30
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I do tend to think LGW could be the most vulnerable infact of all the London airports. If, and I strongly emphasise "if", BA do go and "if" Norwegian or Virgin do so aswell, LGW potentially has a lot to lose. Not to mention the range of other long haul and full-service carriers that would likely shift to LHR where they could acquire appropriate slots.

On the other hand, I don't see the real benefit Ryanair, Jet2, Wizz etc. would have in shifting STN/LTN capacity down to LGW? After all nobody will be expanding to any significant level for the forseeable so would only be a switch, NOT in addition to. The only real longer-term gain one could argue is access to what would become extremely valueable slots when a fuller recovery comes about in 20XX, but they'll be no hurry in piling into LGW for that purpose alone. They'll each take a keen interest in any opportunity I'm sure but as ever with the LCCs, it's almost simply a matter of cost and operational performance (which LGW cannot reasonably boast too much in favour of STN and LTN to be totally frank). LGW may be able to offer some commercial terms they simply cannot refuse, but equally STN and LTN will be all to aware of the prospect of LGW trying to poach their bread and butter business if that were to come about.

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Old 30th Apr 2020, 20:58
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Gatwick is recognised as a proper London Airport while many still laugh at Luton and Stansted being London Airports even though from memory Gatwick is 28 miles from London while Luton is 32 miles and Stansted is I think 33 miles or is it 35 miles?

Not much in it but Gatwick is the first choice for many passengers as it is more premium than Stansted and Luton and for historic reasons for no other reason than they have always used it. Luton still has an image problem that it has had for 50 years and still can't shake. Stansted is Ryanair, which puts some people off. Some of the other airlines there will be temped to move south of the Thames.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 21:40
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Originally Posted by LTNman View Post
Gatwick is recognised as a proper London Airport while many still laugh at Luton and Stansted being London Airports even though from memory Gatwick is 28 miles from London while Luton is 32 miles and Stansted is I think 33 miles or is it 35 miles?

Not much in it but Gatwick is the first choice for many passengers as it is more premium than Stansted and Luton and for historic reasons for no other reason than they have always used it. Luton still has an image problem that it has had for 50 years and still can't shake. Stansted is Ryanair, which puts some people off. Some of the other airlines there will be temped to move south of the Thames.
Why would you pick an airport based on it being perceived as ‘more premium’? Gatwick for years now has been trying to shrug off its ‘bucket and spade’ image, but if it’s your closest airport you’re not going to let that be a factor in choosing which ticket to purchase. There’s a whole load of other factors that perhaps would.

I (like every other normal person) pick an airport based on how close it is to where I live, or where I am travelling from on the day. Secondly it comes down to the cost of the ticket also vs the cost of getting to said airport. I have travelled from every single London airport, it all boils down to cost where there’s a choice. Being perceived as a ‘Premium airport’ doesn’t even cross my mind.

The vast majority of people in London will be more interested in where they are going to as opposed to where they are flying from. In the past there’s been a choice of departure point LHR/LGW/STN/LTN etc. Going forward there might not be a choice other than go or don’t go.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 22:14
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From this point, the next few years will be marked by those who make the right decisions and those who don't. What decision will BA make? If we accept that travel could be back to near current levels in say 5 years, what do BA when Lhr is full once again and there are few slots at Lgw?
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 23:10
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I suspect part of this BA leaving LGW soundbite is to soften up the workforce and unions as regards slashing T&Cs and redundancies, after all it comes a day after the threat of up to 12,000 redundancies.
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Old 1st May 2020, 01:00
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IAG can quickly cover profitable LGW routes via Level, Vueling and Iberia Express should they require. The latter already covering 2 destinations from LHR T5. I doubt that the figure of 12,000 plus job losses is a threat, its reality!
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Old 1st May 2020, 13:05
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Originally Posted by pamann View Post
Why would you pick an airport based on it being perceived as ‘more premium’? Gatwick for years now has been trying to shrug off its ‘bucket and spade’ image, but if it’s your closest airport you’re not going to let that be a factor in choosing which ticket to purchase. There’s a whole load of other factors that perhaps would.

I (like every other normal person) pick an airport based on how close it is to where I live, or where I am travelling from on the day. Secondly it comes down to the cost of the ticket also vs the cost of getting to said airport. I have travelled from every single London airport, it all boils down to cost where there’s a choice. Being perceived as a ‘Premium airport’ doesn’t even cross my mind.

The vast majority of people in London will be more interested in where they are going to as opposed to where they are flying from. In the past there’s been a choice of departure point LHR/LGW/STN/LTN etc. Going forward there might not be a choice other than go or don’t go.
Yes I agree that if you live close or reasonably close to an airport that will always be the first choice but for many people there is not a clear winner so other factors come into play when all things are equal.
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Old 1st May 2020, 20:15
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Grrr

Originally Posted by Alloy View Post
I suspect part of this BA leaving LGW soundbite is to soften up the workforce and unions as regards slashing T&Cs and redundancies, after all it comes a day after the threat of up to 12,000 redundancies.
My thoughts exactly.
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