Which UK Airports will survive the decade ?

[Fairdealfrank]

DND is still going????

Surprisingly, yes.

For now there is a PSO service DND-STN. It's operated by BE: 2 flights/day in the week, nothing saturdays and one/day on sundays.

Don't know if it is the only pax service now, but it may well be.

Perhaps there is activity at DND apart from pax transport?

Is that not the airport with just two - Domestic routes? That's from memory, if I am right, how can they survive?

AFAIK, that's MME, is it T3 to ABZ and KL to AMS?

[Cian]

Would some flights need to increase their fuel reserves - that could be expensive.

Its possible, albeit not hugely.

Costing over-flying airlines money by closing and removing their alternate or on-route diversionary isn't going to get you cash - if it did, all SNN would have to do is cough and they'd be getting thrown money.

[HOODED]

Given we ate nearly half way through this decade are we really saying that in a little over 5 years we will only have 8 airports in the UK carrying passengers??

Also isn't HUY a Aberdeen/Amsterdam only airport like MME but with a few IT flights and some Hele business?

Seems to me Yorkshire and the Northeast are in most danger of loosing airports with HUY/MME/DSA all looking dodgy. If KIM were to pull the AMS from MME and HUY that would surely put them in a problematic position.

[anothertyke]

Seems to me the majority opinion here is that in ten years time we will have twenty or so fully commercial airports plus some others operating various mixed activity models but that there is a short list of airports which might go the way of BLK in terms of commercial operations.

Two comments on that-- a lot depends on the health and further growth of the sun sector, the second home, vfr markets.

Secondly, the future of some airports depends partly on what else could be done with the land. I can think of one or two which just happen to be located in desirable places where land availability for housing is at a premium. And no I don't mean Heathrow!

[pug]

I'd suggest that it matters as much - if not more - over who owns an airport as opposed to how many cattle they can push through the gates when it comes to which airport may or may not survive.


HUY is owned by an airline, of which 60% is owned by a major US helicopter operator which has numerous contracts with the offshore industry in the UK. Hardly a company whose primary concern is building houses or cheap industrial units...

[mr_moose]

Given we ate nearly half way through this decade are we really saying that in a little over 5 years we will only have 8 airports in the UK carrying passengers??

Also isn't HUY a Aberdeen/Amsterdam only airport like MME but with a few IT flights and some Hele business?

Seems to me Yorkshire and the Northeast are in most danger of loosing airports with HUY/MME/DSA all looking dodgy. If KIM were to pull the AMS from MME and HUY that would surely put them in a problematic position.

HUY has survived on just AMS, ABZ and Heliport traffic in the winters for many years - Its the charter traffic that has changed, as operators have gradually consolidated flights between HUY and DSA - and generally opting for DSA. I can't see HUY or DSA shutting up in the next 10 years (hopefully) as the both seem to operate in different markets, Humberside has a large amount of Helicopter traffic, and supports Humber businesses with worldwide connections via AMS, and of course its Aberdeen link - all of which are showing growth (AMS and ABZ figures are both up in the 5-7% area this year), whereas DSA has taken up most of the sunshine routes and Lowcost (wizz).

Teeside on the other hand is looking much riskier having recently thrown out its last remaining charter flights, and seems to have falling passenger figures on its remaining scheduled services.

[Fairdealfrank]

HUY has survived on just AMS, ABZ and Heliport traffic in the winters for many years - Its the charter traffic that has changed, as operators have gradually consolidated flights between HUY and DSA - and generally opting for DSA. I can't see HUY or DSA shutting up in the next 10 years (hopefully) as the both seem to operate in different markets, Humberside has a large amount of Helicopter traffic, and supports Humber businesses with worldwide connections via AMS, and of course its Aberdeen link - all of which are showing growth (AMS and ABZ figures are both up in the 5-7% area this year), whereas DSA has taken up most of the sunshine routes and Lowcost (wizz).

Think the consolidation of pax traffic at DSA is related to (1) a larger population catchment area in and around Sheffield rather than in the Hull/Grimsby areas; (2) it's only been possible in the last few years as civil aviation at DSA is a fairly recent development; and (3) regretably SZD never took off as local/regional airport, it was always a niche airport with insufficient "niche" (too small?).

Teeside on the other hand is looking much riskier having recently thrown out its last remaining charter flights, and seems to have falling passenger figures on its remaining scheduled services.

Yes, chucking airlines out does look like a suicide mission. The airport management appear to have "lost it big time" since BD left. What on earth is going on at MME?

[Wilbur Gunn]

An excellent and wide-ranging thread, with a great deal of good sense. There’s also some vapid nonsense from people who have clearly never experienced the higher echelons of “scheduled airline” airport management, or worked in premier league airline business management.

In addition to opinions expressed on this thread, pax airport survival is increasingly dependent on the accelerating consolidation of key international airlines, the growth of new allegiances worldwide, and international financial trends increasingly led by China, the Middle East and other asset-rich countries. Look outside the UK, think 2024, and see what’s happening in places moving up the economic league.

Many airports are now in complex joint ownership, involving overseas hedge funds, investment funds, pension funds, over-leveraged property companies, extensions of governments and the rest. The eventual consequence of the unfettered and fragmented privatisation of BAA. Continuing consequences include those recent developments at Heathrow plc, divesting itself of airports which many on this thread seem to regard as safe bets. Hmmm . . . .

For the record, my original informant was evaluating the future of one of the key UK pax airports they owned. I don’t reckon it was on his ‘survive the decade’ list . . . .

So, my survival list for airports hosting ‘scheduled airline’ operations (including locos and what used to be called charter airlines) by 2024 ?

Well, I suggest only the following will make the cut : LHR, LGW, STN, BHX, MAN, GLA, ABZ, plus BFS or BHD.

Additionally, EMA will continue as the UK’s freight-focused airport. I’ve mixed opinions re LTN, its over-reliance on a single loco operator who may well experience ownership changes in the next decade, and longer-term domestic transport trends.

Those airports over-dependent on locos will struggle as that sector consolidates and/or transubstantiates into fuller-service higher-yield a la EZJ, under the influence of those changing ownership structures and strategies

And if it ain’t already moving more than 5 million pax pa (or over 100k pax average per week), and there ain’t political reasons for its continuation (eg Scotland or NI), then it won’t survive, except as a back-yard feeder field or for some other small niche business such as offshore energy support or engineering services.

What do you think ?

[anothertyke]

I think that underrates (a) the surface access costs involved for the punters in such a radical solution and (b) the devolution agenda and the politics of no commercial airport in five of the English regions. Five million is too high a threshold.

[jensdad]

With respect, I think folks have already told you what they think. My personal opinion is that it is inconceivable that there won't be an airport between Manchester and Glasgow. Are you seriously suggesting that NCL, EDI and LBA will close within a decade? Also that there will be no airports south-west of a line from London to Birmingham? And that Isles of Scilly, the Western Isles and Northern Isles will be cut adrift from any air service at all?
Strange things can happen but I just can't see it.

[MerchantVenturer]

Well, I suggest only the following will make the cut : LHR, LGW, STN, BHX, MAN, GLA, ABZ, plus BFS or BHD.

Do you really believe that EDI won't be around in ten years' time? It's the capital of Scotland and the second most popular UK tourist destination after London.

Going by today's passenger numbers, and even if there is no increase by 2024, it still means that somewhere between 50 million and 60 million passengers who currently use the airports you suggest will close will have to use the eight that remain. Those airports will have to expand their infrastructure rapidly to cater for these additional travellers.

The closure of so many airports including four currently in the top ten of UK airports measured by passenger numbers (EDI, LTN, BRS and NCL, three of which already handle over 5 mppa) would in so short a time have a profound, even catastrophic, effect on the economy in this country including the loss of tens of thousands of jobs.

I wonder if you believe that, say, France and Germany will also be reduced to a skeletal airport network by 2024.

[Fairdealfrank]

Well, I suggest only the following will make the cut : LHR, LGW, STN, BHX, MAN, GLA, ABZ, plus BFS or BHD.

Additionally, EMA will continue as the UK’s freight-focused airport. I’ve mixed opinions re LTN, its over-reliance on a single loco operator who may well experience ownership changes in the next decade, and longer-term domestic transport trends.

As stated in post #47:
"The idea that there will be just 8 civil airports in the UK in ten years time is risible: it means just 2 outside the IATA "London" designation area.

You're having a laugh!"

and post #49:
"Like LCY, LBA is going nowhere either.

You have to follow the money, LBA mangement have just invested in terminal improvements/enlargements with allegedly more to come. Clearly it will be around in 10 years time. It's also rare among UK airports: it has a link to LHR."

Fewer airports than a small country like Ireland? Don't think so.

The same comments made about LBA also apply to EDI (on a larger scale of course). LTN too is investing in infrastructure improvements. Airports that will be closed in 10 years time don't do this.

Even with no "no frills" activity LTN would remain an important airport for charter/holiday carriers.

Also don't forget:
(1) airports like NQY, DND and the various Highland and Island airports sustained by PSO arrangements;
(2) niche airports such as BHD, HUY, LCY, NWI, SEN and airports diversified away from just pax;
(3) island airports like ALC, GCI, IOM, JER;
(4) airports serving areas away from the main centres of population such as CWL, EXT and INV;
(5) regional airports omitted from the list of 8 like BFS, BOH, BRS, EDI, EMA, LBA, LPL, LTN, NCL and SOU.

BLK and MME do look vulnerable and CAX looks unlikely to take off.

The lists starts to get longer and longer.........

The real question for 10 years time is: will LHR still have just 2 rwys. Regretably, we all know that it will.

[rock-hopper]

There is other activity. A very busy flying school (Tayside Aviation). A high number of private jets recently but this is seasonal due to Golf and shooting attractions nearby. Occasional offshore helicopter training.

These all contribute to DND having the highest number of aircraft movements out of any of the HIAL group! It's not all about scheduled flights.

[AdamFrisch]

Forget Europe's the-only-thing-we-care-about-are-airlines hating GA politics, just for a moment stop and think about the long term future for aviation. Put your futurist hat on for a moment.

It is inevitable that we over the next 100-200 years will transfer our personal transportation more to the air. All the roads have been built and the speeds there can't increase much. What that future holds specifically - be it electric VTOL's or electric planes - is too early to tell, but it will happen. The 30's dream about all of us having our own flying car, will eventually come true.

Given this scenario - how bloody stupid is it then to close down every single smaller airport and just concentrate on hubs? You don't have to be a genius to see that eventually there will be no (to very little) airline traffic at all. Just like there are no giant hubs with buses transporting everyone around on roads - no, we drive ourselves in our own cars. As technology progresses for personal transportation, airlines and mass transport will take that hit.

If we shut all airports down - or places where flying things can land - then we'll just have to rebuild them as technology and the times move forward. This is a huge waste of money and infrastructure.

[mad_jock]

Just look at the airports who charge a developement charge to the pax in the departure lounge and they will be the ones gone.