Long Haul Low cost out of Stansted true or False?

[wannabe-aviator]

I think the student market and tourism market from Asia to Europe is more open now thus resulting in more demand from relatives wanting to visit students here in Europe, also could be to do with Tony Fernandes having some information we don't have, and lastly and potentially most importantly Airport incentives to operate into and out of their respective airports these could be some of the reasons??

[Groundloop]

Laker's business model was not sustainable and his airline was going rapidly down the tubes. McDonnell Douglas and General Electric put together a rescue package and the 'conspiracy', which was real enough, consisted of a number of flag carriers (led by BCal) warning them off.

The "rescue package" included McDonnell Douglas become a shareholder in Laker. The "warning-off" was other McDonnel Douglas customers telling McD that it would be very difficult to buy any more aircraft from them as this would involve discussing confidential information with a shareholder in a rival airline.

The Laker story will always be coloured by the myth that he was a good businessman. Obviously he was not! As well as buying a fleet of A300s for routes without licences (as mentioned by SSK) his original DC-10 order was for Skytrain - which then took about five years to get approval from the US. For those five years he was desperately trying to find work for his aircraft!

Regarding Lofleidir - they were successful as they were not members of IATA which at that time was a price-fixing cartel. Once price-fixing by IATA was banned Loftleidir lost a lot of their commercial advantage.

[southside bobby]

Also davidjohnson6,it was proven the A340 equipment used on their first foray into Europe became progressively uneconomic & perhaps unsuitable even to begin with.The latest version of the A330 ordered changes the math....

[whitelighter]

I though NAX had just signed a big partnership deal with Gatwick. Can't see them upping sticks to Stansted.

Aur Blue has been a rumour for ages - they are certainly long haul and low cost.

[LAX_LHR]

Air Blue are pulling off long haul. MAN stopped, A340's sent back.

[Need to Know Basis]

Air Asia

GBP has increased in value over the USD ?

[Need to Know Basis]

NAX

NAX & LGW signed an agreement but only to do with marketing and promoting each other....... a non money agreement but that promotes each other.....making them both money......but NOT off each other.

[Phileas Fogg]

The Laker story will always be coloured by the myth that he was a good businessman. Obviously he was not! As well as buying a fleet of A300s for routes without licences

Actually ... For the UK to get in on the "building Airbus" project there needed to be a British customer of the Airbus product, namely the A300.

Maggie went to her state owned airline, they told her to bogger off so then she went to the 2nd flag carrier, BCal, they told her to bogger off so then she went to FAL to enquire if he would entertain ordering 10 of the Airbus product, FAL questioned of Maggie "Would you look favourably upon my 600 European Skytrain route applications?" to which Maggie replied "Of course I will darling" and the rest is history.

And as for Maggie having a word in the shell like of Ronald to stop the US Grand Jury case that would have closed down Maggie's "World's Favourite" airline, at the precise time when she was trying to privatise it, well she was at the forefront of closing Laker down.

R.I.P. Maggie

[The SSK]

Ain't history wonderful! So much more interesting than the here and now.

Groundloop: Once price-fixing by IATA was banned Loftleidir lost a lot of their commercial advantage.

I don’t think that’s the interpretation I would put on it. The arrival of the 747 in 1970/71 triggered huge capacity increases on a route-by-route basis as 150-seat 707s, DC-8s and VC10s were replaced by aircraft more than twice their size. All those extra seats had to be filled somehow. Meanwhile markets, particularly Europe-US, were liberalising.

Ridiculous loopholes like Affinity Charters (Join the Batley Rhubarb-Growers’ Association and fly to New York for £99 !) and One-Stop ITs had little credibility, what the airlines wanted was pricing freedom outside the IATA first/economy/excursion straightjacket. So along came APEX and mass-market longhaul travel was born.

IATA only fixed prices inasmuch as bilateral Air Service Agreements made it hard/impossible to offer fares outside the IATA framework. When more liberal bilaterals came along (such as Bermuda II), airlines were much more free to set their own fares. It wouldn’t surprise me if IATA are still setting F/Y/YE fares in those markets where they are legally allowed to do so, but these fares are pretty irrelevant in this day and age, except for calculating the prorates on interline journeys.

[anothertyke]

History is interesting because it sends messages yet never quite repeats itself. So, if Maxjet and Silverjet failed partly because they were in the wrong place and if it's true that the decent margins are at the pointy end and if R3 at LHR gets built, could the long haul business jet concept work? Or will the alliances inbuilt advantages --frequent flier points, networks, frequency, back up--still win out?

[The SSK]

Just about every transatlantic startup - loco or all-business - failed (largely) because of the consequences of small-scale operation and its vulnerability to aircraft unserviceability and accumulating delay. Maxjet and Silverjet spent a fortune leasing in replacement capacity while Eos took a different route and provided itself with standby aircraft - again at huge cost.

The simple fact is that a single aircraft can do a transatlantic roundtrip in a 24-hour period, but schedule it six or seven days a week and something will go wrong, trashing your reputation. That's what happened to People Express (remember them?)

The standout exception was Virgin, who got through their first Summer with a single 747 operating six rotations a week. It was secondhand, too, supplied to them in perfect condition by Lufthansa, IIRC.

By their second Summer their fleet had expanded and they were up and running.

[Airlift21]

So what's this about NAX leaving Gatwick for Stansted? Any substance to this rumour?

[On the beach]

AirAsiaX has 475 A320's, 51 A330's and 10 A350XWB's either on order or flying. Possibly, quite a few XAX's heading for EGSS from various Asian countries. I don't suppose they would be linking in to the, as yet unannounced, RyanairX transatlantic network would they?

http://http://www.airbus.com/newsevents/news-events-single/detail/airasia-x-orders-25-more-a330-300s/

http://http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-16/airasia-x-plans-to-sign-major-airbus-plane-order-this-week.html.


Of course there's no link between Ryanair and AirAsia. Or is there?

Airbus Says Low-Cost Airlines Will Keep Its A330 in Production for at Least Ten Years - Skift

So, 40 - 50 a/c required for a low-cost transatlantic operation. Presumably linking to a 40 - 50 a/c low-cost Asian operation. Mmm, I think a second runway may be going to be needed somewhere, pretty soon. But that's for another rumour!

[crewmeal]

The simple fact is that a single aircraft can do a transatlantic roundtrip in a 24-hour period, but schedule it six or seven days a week and something will go wrong, trashing your reputation. That's what happened to People Express (remember them?)

And Highland Express who leased in a knackered old 747-100 which spent more time tech than it did in the air. (You can still buy their model aircraft on ebay for around a tenner!)

By what's been said so far it seems that lowcost is down to reliability and performance. It seems just one hiccup will send your reputation to the dogs. So what's the answer to such an operation? A one horse outfit doesn't work. Stby a/c are too expensive. An example that works after the demise of Eos, Silverjet and Maxjet, even though it's J class only is BA's operation out of LCY with 2 reliable A318's. They plan ahead and cut back to 1 service where necessary and the spare aircraft goes in for maintenance. Open Skies seems to be working after faltering at the start with old 757s.

[Phileas Fogg]

So what's the answer to such an operation? A one horse outfit doesn't work. Stby a/c are too expensive.

I always recall a conversation I had with Andy Janes (of Emerald notoriety) one evening and Andy explaining to me that his fleet of budgies had pretty much hit zero value so there was no hull depreciation to take in to account, the aircraft were paid for so there were no mortgages to pay and, pretty much, besides any parking fees, insurances and in-house maintenance costs any standby aircraft cost was, pretty much, bogger all.

So perhaps the answer is to operate an aircraft type that has become surplus, many years ago the MD80/90's became surplus, thus cheap, and a number of operators took advantage of that, likewise the Fokker jets became surplus and cheap and a number of operators took advantage of that also, I've read on this forum, to the effect, that one can't give A340's away, I don't know the going rate for the B757/B767 family now that the B787 has become all the rave, etc.

As for reliability, in one of my previous lives I worked for a geriatric DC8-62 cargo operator in Europe, hydraulic pumps were the favourites to fail, firstly they were buying the cheapest and nastiest reconditioned hydraulic pumps from Florida that, by the time one arrived in Europe, a 24 hour delay had already been incurred but it was common knowledge that if one hydraulic pump failed then the other three pumps had been allowed to run dry and they too would fail soon afterwards but would that operator ever buy more than one pump at a time ... no!

So, perhaps the answer is to operate a surplus aircraft type and, whatever the type, have a good spares back-up.

[LTNman]

As yet nobody has made a success of Low cost Longhaul!

Also nobody has made a success of flying any sort of long haul from Stansted.

[sxflyer]

Fairly inevitable someone from the LTN mob would turn up to troll.

The same could also be applied to LTN, unless the poster thinks successful long-haul is a weekly Monarch to Orlando that doesn't run anymore. Well, guess what, STN had that route too flown by Leisure for a few seasons.

Depends on definition of success of course, but Air Transat operated for maybe 15+ consecutive seasons to Toronto. Havana I believe is also long haul, that lasted a few years until Cubana got themselves into LGW. Unfortunately, as a 'waiting room' for other airports comings and goings such as a season to Vancouver with Thomas Cook because they were unable to secure suitable slots again at LGW are inevitable. Of course in the 1970s/80s the likes of Wardair seemed to do pretty well.

Air Asia coming back would be interesting. Again to conflict with LTNman's assertion it's not as though they were quickly in and out failing spectacularly last time so if they are coming back to Europe soon it can't be ruled out. As for what's changed since last time, well the economy is picking up, the aircraft look more suitable and perhaps more significantly the airport has new owners potentially able to give fresh incentives.

If you want unsubstantiated rumours, Air Canada Rouge is another long haul 'loco' with existing relationship with MAG, though not sure what their appetite would be to compete with themselves at LHR. Also looking at Canada, Westjet were said to be eyeing up a few UK airports.

[wannabe-aviator]

Met the TRI who told me this rumour yesterday and what he said was AOC already secured, first aircraft already secured, will commence flying in July with a second and third Unit joining in August and September.

Press release by both Airline and airport is due first or second week of February and tickets will go on sale in March, first aircraft is an Airbus, Arab and Asian money involved.

[crewmeal]

Looks like something like this:

Leak of the week: flynas looks to launch long-haul operations in 2014

[Capetonian]

If it's a Saudi based operation it will probably be 'dry'. I would imagine that will place it at a huge disadvantage, with everything that follows from that.