Ryanair - 'Laying Off' 600!!
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RYR have 2 billion euros in cash reserves, not 20 million, not 200 million, 2,000 million. If they lose a million a day they can last 2000 days, circa, 6 years.
By then, it will be 'last man standing' and after 6 years, it hardly seems likely that RYR will be the first to fold.
Airlines go tits up after such losses after just a few months. See recent press re: airlines closures.
And if 600 pilots hit the streets, do you really think that they would not be happy to work for any airline on the B scale, or even C scale?
By then, it will be 'last man standing' and after 6 years, it hardly seems likely that RYR will be the first to fold.
Airlines go tits up after such losses after just a few months. See recent press re: airlines closures.
And if 600 pilots hit the streets, do you really think that they would not be happy to work for any airline on the B scale, or even C scale?
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I can't help but notice that the moderators on PPRuNe tend to keep deleting the pro-Ryanair posts but are happy to leave up the lies and bull that most people put up here without a trace of proof.
It is the internet equivalent off a british tabloid and this will be my last visit to it!
Ryanair from strength to strength!!!
But I guess this post will end up in the bin too!
P.s The posts that I am talking about are the ones that I have tryed to post. But they never seem to make it.
And a big thanks for the CAPS button.
Your a top man and your doing a great job.
Well done.
It is the internet equivalent off a british tabloid and this will be my last visit to it!
Ryanair from strength to strength!!! But I guess this post will end up in the bin too!
P.s The posts that I am talking about are the ones that I have tryed to post. But they never seem to make it.
And a big thanks for the CAPS button.
Your a top man and your doing a great job.
Well done.
Last edited by grob.1; 27th Jul 2008 at 18:53.
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whatsthatbuttondo:
well if those guys work so hard for so little with such rubbish Ts and Cs lets try it on our own workforce.´´
Hmmm......Do you know who much a FR Capt. makes with at average of 85 to 95 hrs flying p.m. It´s not tuppence... I can guarantee you that...hard work yes!!!
The difference is that with a union behind you you can bargain contracts..´FR cannot. That´s hardly the issue on this topic. Let´s focus on what the economics in our present day have, and how they have a direct influence on the airlines. And, why some will have it harder than others...the layoff´s are inevitable!
well if those guys work so hard for so little with such rubbish Ts and Cs lets try it on our own workforce.´´
Hmmm......Do you know who much a FR Capt. makes with at average of 85 to 95 hrs flying p.m. It´s not tuppence... I can guarantee you that...hard work yes!!!
The difference is that with a union behind you you can bargain contracts..´FR cannot. That´s hardly the issue on this topic. Let´s focus on what the economics in our present day have, and how they have a direct influence on the airlines. And, why some will have it harder than others...the layoff´s are inevitable!
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Ryanair - a pretty serious set of problems
Well, this is an interesting set of discussions but the truth is that Ryanair remains the only major UK airline with an unhedged fuel position this year that will cost them very dear - perhaps a further £500-£800m this year.
They have committed to fleet expansion at the rate of 20 per year (see http://www.ryanair.com/site/about/in...rySchedule.pdf and right now they can't even fill the planes they have.
They're grounding 20 aircraft already when last year they grounded 7.
Their market whether middle income second home owners or chavs are discretionary spenders who by Ryanair's own admission have chosen their ticket purely on price not quality of service. Thus by definition I would argue that they have the most elastic demand in the industry i.e. if their price rises even slightly then demand plummets.
Truth is whichever way you cut it O'Leary has a pretty serious set of problems compared to Easy/BA/Flybe who have hedged fuel position and less price sensitive customers.
We've always known that ethically the company stinks, it's just that now the business model does too. Not sure they'll be first to the wall but I think they'll be out of business long before Easy, Flybe and BA and O'Leary can go back to growing potatoes.
Desk-pilot
They have committed to fleet expansion at the rate of 20 per year (see http://www.ryanair.com/site/about/in...rySchedule.pdf and right now they can't even fill the planes they have.
They're grounding 20 aircraft already when last year they grounded 7.
Their market whether middle income second home owners or chavs are discretionary spenders who by Ryanair's own admission have chosen their ticket purely on price not quality of service. Thus by definition I would argue that they have the most elastic demand in the industry i.e. if their price rises even slightly then demand plummets.
Truth is whichever way you cut it O'Leary has a pretty serious set of problems compared to Easy/BA/Flybe who have hedged fuel position and less price sensitive customers.
We've always known that ethically the company stinks, it's just that now the business model does too. Not sure they'll be first to the wall but I think they'll be out of business long before Easy, Flybe and BA and O'Leary can go back to growing potatoes.
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Oh, perleese... The last thing I want to do is be a member of Leo's fan-club, but someone has to keep bringing this thread back to reality. RY has one of the stronger balance sheets in the industry, the very lowest unit costs in the EU, the very lowest B738 prices from Boeing in the world, and, if people are buying the product on low-price alone, a large segment of society just about to trade down to the cheapest product, just like in the high street today (see the good performance of the LIDLs of this world). On hedging, EZ's runs out at the end of Sept, BA has some, but its price is sharply higher than the average price its just been paying, and if you think that Flybe as an indebted independent is going to outlast RY in this recession then I give up. RY grounded aircraft last winter because it is an aggressive management that cares only about profit - it's grounding more this winter again to keep winter losses on sun routes under control (and to tell the BAA to cut STN winter charges). And guess what? Now EZ and BA are about to cut winter capacity to keep winter losses on sun routes under control..... What should Jet2, bmibaby, sterling, air berlin etc be doing now? The same. I'm afraid there's very tough times coming, but one would be wrong to hope that RY is early in the list of industry exits.
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Ryanair terrible T&Cs. I am bit confused. Name me an airline similar that are on better deals? Jet 2 (ya right!) Excel Airways? BMI Baby? hell even mainline? Easyjet?? Flybe (this is getting funny) Thomas Cook? TUI? (I forgot we have a bunch of them coming across already..) First Choice?? Even BA, how long in the right till you get a sniff of the left??
Ya great you get a small pension and get your crew meals, yippie! And spend maybe 10-15 years in righthand seat???
Really funny that we have lost crews in the past to 'major' airlines such as that other irish regional airline aer lingus, Emirates, Dragon Air, Cathy Pacific, First Choice, Jet2 etc.. funny that after a year or two they are banging on the doors to try and get back into Ryanair. At least the company have wised up and told them where to go.
Nothing is perfect but pointing the finger and claiming that Ryanair are terrible is a bit over the top. I think you'll find alot of happy pilots here.
Ya great you get a small pension and get your crew meals, yippie! And spend maybe 10-15 years in righthand seat???
Really funny that we have lost crews in the past to 'major' airlines such as that other irish regional airline aer lingus, Emirates, Dragon Air, Cathy Pacific, First Choice, Jet2 etc.. funny that after a year or two they are banging on the doors to try and get back into Ryanair. At least the company have wised up and told them where to go.
Nothing is perfect but pointing the finger and claiming that Ryanair are terrible is a bit over the top. I think you'll find alot of happy pilots here.
BBC Business have just announced (0651 BST) "A very poor set of results coming through from Ryanair today".....
Net income excluding writedowns fell to €21M in the 3 months to 30 June from €138.9M a year earlier, a fall of 85%.
Analysts had predicted profit of €50.9M.
O'Leary predicts anything from break-even to €60M loss over the year.
Net income excluding writedowns fell to €21M in the 3 months to 30 June from €138.9M a year earlier, a fall of 85%.
Analysts had predicted profit of €50.9M.
O'Leary predicts anything from break-even to €60M loss over the year.
Last edited by BEagle; 28th Jul 2008 at 06:23.
They are now hedged at $124 and $129, which indicates they aren't expecting prices to go lower. And losses probably won't get too bad, break even is a pretty good outcome. If they could get the 15% efficiency improvements that Rolls Royce are talking about, they would be immediately profitable again.
Ryanair shares plunge on warning over fares, fuel prices - MarketWatch
Ryanair shares plunge on warning over fares, fuel prices - MarketWatch
said it lost 90.5 million euros ($142 million) during the June 30 ending quarter after taking accelerated depreciation of 17.9 million euros on 15 aircrafts to be disposed next year. It also took a 93.6 million euro write-down on its holdings of Aer Lingus (UK:AERL: news, chart, profile) , its rival Irish carrier that it unsuccessfully tried to take over in 2007.
Excluding those costs, quarterly performance still looked dour: its profit fell 85% to 21 million euros from 139 million euros. Analysts polled by FactSet Research had anticipated a profit of 75.4 million euros.
Excluding those costs, quarterly performance still looked dour: its profit fell 85% to 21 million euros from 139 million euros. Analysts polled by FactSet Research had anticipated a profit of 75.4 million euros.
Last edited by peter we; 28th Jul 2008 at 08:36.
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The airline lost 90 million euros if you include the fall in the value of the Aer Lingus shares and drop in the value of the planes to be sold next year.
Better planes in the future will make the value of the current 737-800 drop. Ryanair currently have the best kit but others can leap frog them after the downturn. Its a bit like the perfect storm for Ryanair. In this Quarter they made just 99,000 euros profit on selling 4 planes. Last year they made 12,153,000 euros profit by selling 6 planes. A big down turn in the industry means they will have to writedown the value of all their planes.
Better planes in the future will make the value of the current 737-800 drop. Ryanair currently have the best kit but others can leap frog them after the downturn. Its a bit like the perfect storm for Ryanair. In this Quarter they made just 99,000 euros profit on selling 4 planes. Last year they made 12,153,000 euros profit by selling 6 planes. A big down turn in the industry means they will have to writedown the value of all their planes.
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From MOLly's press release ref numbers:"Ryanair’s traffic will still grow by approx. 9% this winter as we switch route and capacity growth to lower cost airports and bases. Accordingly, passenger volumes for the year will grow by 14% to 58mRyanair’s better than anticipated savings which will flow from capacity and cost reductions already achieved will partly offset these lower yields. On the basis of our existing fuel hedges, Q4 oil prices at approx. $130 per barrel, and average fares falling by 5% for the full year, we expect to record a full year result of between breakeven and a loss of €60m. The capacity reductions which will ensue from this winter’s wave of airline bankruptcies and consolidations will create more opportunities for Ryanair to grow. When oil prices fall significantly (as we believe they will over the medium term) then our earnings should rebound strongly. We have one of the strongest Balance Sheets in the industry and the business continues to be strongly cash generative with over €2.2bn in cash. With the lowest fares and lowest cost base in the industry Ryanair is the best positioned airline In Europe to take advantage of the opportunities that these very difficult trading conditions will create."So, Pax No.s to grow, Fares to fall - Ryanair policyMOL is comfortable with this, and he sees growth as the main target.
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Pax to grow fares to fall!!
Unfortunately that all MOL knows how to do, which is fine, but only one of the two above is in his power, ie to reduce fares, if the pax don't come through then he's well, buggered.
In a slowing economy with net mirgration now negative and thousands of Ex pat Eastern Europeans and their families heading back east because of the collapse of the building industry + many low income familes making the choice to stay at home, the strength of the Euro all add to MOL worries.
Of course much of this applies to Easy, Baby, Jet2 and others, but Ryan is much more exposed because of its pax mix, last but not least many will travel with Ryan because its fares have been so low it would be rude not to go Bratislvkawichpozntolonhannlimogecarcason and other impossible to spell places, remove that low cost factor and they wont go, That is not the same for Easy, baby, Jet2
How long before the money men call for a change at the top, it will only take Easy to start showing + numbers before some see MOL as old hat as we all see GB and he went from positive to negative in 3 months.
These are a dreadful set of numbers from Ryanair, this is a public company using share holders funds not MOL train set, unhedged? buying a stake in Aerlingus, relying on buying cheap boeings and selling at a profit, the wheels are coming off, a perfect storm indeed.
In a slowing economy with net mirgration now negative and thousands of Ex pat Eastern Europeans and their families heading back east because of the collapse of the building industry + many low income familes making the choice to stay at home, the strength of the Euro all add to MOL worries.
Of course much of this applies to Easy, Baby, Jet2 and others, but Ryan is much more exposed because of its pax mix, last but not least many will travel with Ryan because its fares have been so low it would be rude not to go Bratislvkawichpozntolonhannlimogecarcason and other impossible to spell places, remove that low cost factor and they wont go, That is not the same for Easy, baby, Jet2
How long before the money men call for a change at the top, it will only take Easy to start showing + numbers before some see MOL as old hat as we all see GB and he went from positive to negative in 3 months.
These are a dreadful set of numbers from Ryanair, this is a public company using share holders funds not MOL train set, unhedged? buying a stake in Aerlingus, relying on buying cheap boeings and selling at a profit, the wheels are coming off, a perfect storm indeed.
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MOL F***ed up large. Almost no fuel hedging in place lower down and suddeny hedging at $120 -$130. Mad. Be nice if he stoped calling everyone else ar*eholes and admitted he'd made a most enormous f** up with no hedging for this year.
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Wikipedia says Ryanair have 138 orders and 170 options as of May 2008.
My research shows the costs of a brand spanking new 737-800 is around 80Million USD.
Multiply 80 Mil by 138 and you get, what? Something like 1.1 Billion USD?
If O'Leary must take delivery of these aircraft, and if he can't sell them on because of market conditions, where does that leave his Cash Pot?
My research shows the costs of a brand spanking new 737-800 is around 80Million USD.
Multiply 80 Mil by 138 and you get, what? Something like 1.1 Billion USD?
If O'Leary must take delivery of these aircraft, and if he can't sell them on because of market conditions, where does that leave his Cash Pot?
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Capt,
I suspect you took the upper end of the following price list to do your maths. Problem with that is that MOL signed his deal after 9/11 when Boeing was facing closing its doors. It is top secret what he paid but he has been quoted numerous times as saying that he "r*ped" Boeing on price.
If he decided to sell on all of his firm orders that will further deflate the price as supply would outstrip demand. Also FR orders reasonably basic models of the 737. There is no ACARS, HF, seatbacks for pax amongst other things. To have these retrofitted will cost an operator dearly as they have to be certified. This reduces the price further and limits the availability of interested parties.
Incidentally I once heard a rumour that Boeing were willing to match any price that MOL flicked on his a/c for to ensure that he didn't set up a 2nd hand market and undercut them. They were apparently selling full spec'd models for the same price as his cut down versions.
Boeing: Commercial Airplanes -- Jet Prices Home
I suspect you took the upper end of the following price list to do your maths. Problem with that is that MOL signed his deal after 9/11 when Boeing was facing closing its doors. It is top secret what he paid but he has been quoted numerous times as saying that he "r*ped" Boeing on price.
If he decided to sell on all of his firm orders that will further deflate the price as supply would outstrip demand. Also FR orders reasonably basic models of the 737. There is no ACARS, HF, seatbacks for pax amongst other things. To have these retrofitted will cost an operator dearly as they have to be certified. This reduces the price further and limits the availability of interested parties.
Incidentally I once heard a rumour that Boeing were willing to match any price that MOL flicked on his a/c for to ensure that he didn't set up a 2nd hand market and undercut them. They were apparently selling full spec'd models for the same price as his cut down versions.
Boeing: Commercial Airplanes -- Jet Prices Home