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Rough week for US airlines

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Rough week for US airlines

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Old 3rd Apr 2008, 22:39
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What is the solution? I donīt know.
Does anyone know?
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Old 3rd Apr 2008, 22:54
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I mean, the solution industrywide.
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Old 3rd Apr 2008, 22:54
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For the US airlines...

I don't know but I'm sure that American pax are pretty fed up with the extremely poor cut cost service that their major carriers are serving up at the moment and I don't think they will put up with it forever.

There will be big change in the industry over the next decade but I fear that more legacy airlines will disappear taking many jobs with them first.
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Old 3rd Apr 2008, 23:13
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What is the solution? I donīt know.
Does anyone know?
The solution would be the availability of cheap oil, which is probably a thing of the past.

Aviation is having a hard time because we can't possibly compete with other users, such as cars. In Europe we are very happy with paying $370 p/b to fill up our cars with the taxes included. The US will do the same, because people living in 'suburbia' have no other choice. If the supply/demand balance gets tighter the price will keep on rising until air travel is back to the days when only the rich could afford it. Oh, and algae oil costs $800 p/b.

In the mean time, wannabee's are investing 80k in flight training while both Shell's CEO and Exxon Mobil predicting peak oil within the next 8 years. Crazy world.
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Old 3rd Apr 2008, 23:37
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But when oil was cheap there were airlines going under.
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Old 3rd Apr 2008, 23:45
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Be serious. You say American passengers are fed up and won't put up with it any longer? What on earth do you think they'll do? Lie on the floor and kick their heels? Start their own airline, PassengerAir? Refuse to fly?

Nah. They'll continue to buy $99 tickets to LA and complain.
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Old 4th Apr 2008, 00:01
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A big pile of cash will keep the big airlines from that same fate, for now.

It's not that the big carriers aren't buffeted by the same forces that shut down ATA on Thursday and Aloha on Tuesday. Champion Air, a Minnesota-based charter airline, will stop flying by May 31.

But the nation's biggest airlines have hoarded some $19 billion in cash as of the end of 2007, according to a tally by Calyon Securities analyst Ray Neidl. Even if fuel stays at today's levels and revenue drops 2 percent, they would still have $14.7 billion in cash at the end of 2009, under Neidl's estimate.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/busi...=1&oref=slogin
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Old 4th Apr 2008, 00:12
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Solution

the solution to the US airline problem

reregulate the airlines, fares that allow for a 5 to 10 percent profit for the airlines and investors.

costs inline with current fuel prices.

proper use of larger planes to newly slot controlled or recontrolled airports.

this is the 30th anniversary of deregulation...everything is down...fares are down.

service is down

delays get people down
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Old 4th Apr 2008, 00:19
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Managements run companies, not unions or staff.
Companies fail because management fails to come up with a viable business plan.
You can't blame labor for the poor choices in shareholders' selection of a board, who in turn select senior management.
In no way is this exclusive to the airline business, either.
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Old 4th Apr 2008, 01:50
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ASA is still hiring. It has just been slowed a little. Interviews two days a week in April, and barring any changes, one day a week in May.
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Old 4th Apr 2008, 07:12
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Be serious. You say American passengers are fed up and won't put up with it any longer? What on earth do you think they'll do? Lie on the floor and kick their heels? Start their own airline, PassengerAir? Refuse to fly?
Actually I think they will start looking towards airlines that offer service. We're starting to see the rise of all business configuration airlines over in the UK and corporate aviation is booming. People are fed up with being treated like cattle and have lost the choice between a Lo-Co and a full service.

I don't know what will happen, (if I did then I'd be a very rich man) but I'm fairly sure that the industry especially in the US, will change markedly in the next 10 or so years. With a recession on the way and the price of crude continuously climbing, the first people to stop flying will be the budget leisure travellers.
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Old 4th Apr 2008, 08:55
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With a recession on the way and the price of crude continuously climbing, the first people to stop flying will be the budget leisure travellers.
Yep, it's happened before. But it's the strong major locos who benefit and the legacy carriers who suffer. In previous times of recession (in the USA) it was SOUTHWEST Airlines which always continued to post a profit. What leisure pax they lost to recession was ballanced out by $ conscious corporate executives moving down from flying with the expensive legacy carriers.
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Old 4th Apr 2008, 08:59
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And who will be the big winner, initially anyway? The ME airlines... How much are they "paying" for the oil nowdays? So far it's mainly regional-ish companies being hit, but soon the long haul companies will fall if the oil is staying at current levels. This development will be a nice push for Dubai Inc, Abu Dhabi Inc and Doha Inc.
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Old 4th Apr 2008, 09:49
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"October 24, 1978.

That day is when the airline industry in the USA went to hell. Deregulation.

Even the hotshot low cost carrier, southwest is now cutting corners. where will it end?"

Get your facts right please. Southwest has not cut any corners and is committed to bringing a safe and reliable product to its Customers

Last edited by G-ONADS; 4th Apr 2008 at 09:52. Reason: incomplete
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Old 4th Apr 2008, 10:12
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Originally Posted by sevenstrokeroll
the solution to the US airline problem

reregulate the airlines, fares that allow for a 5 to 10 percent profit for the airlines and investors.

costs inline with current fuel prices.

proper use of larger planes to newly slot controlled or recontrolled airports.

this is the 30th anniversary of deregulation...everything is down...fares are down.

service is down

delays get people down
I don't think you would need larger aircraft or slot controls if you implemented items 1 and 2 on your list - the large reduction in passengers that would follow would more than take care of that.

G-ONADS: I think this is what was being referred to:Records: Southwest flew unsafe planes
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Old 4th Apr 2008, 11:30
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But when oil was cheap there were airlines going under.
beachbumflyer, the Northwest and Continental CEO's have both said that despite the economic slowdown demand is still strong, but they are unable to cope with the high oil prices. Aloha survived many recessions, 9/11 and even the two oil crises in the 70's but 2008 is killing them.

JetBlue is selling A320's, with clear language from the CEO:

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/finan.../D8VQL7R80.htm

"We're pretty much at the mercy of the cost of energy into an aircraft," JetBlue Airways Corp. Chief Executive David Barger told an aviation conference at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

Last edited by saccade; 4th Apr 2008 at 11:41.
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Old 4th Apr 2008, 11:58
  #37 (permalink)  
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Mercenary Pilot
For the US airlines...

I don't know but I'm sure that American pax are pretty fed up with the extremely poor cut cost service that their major carriers are serving up at the moment and I don't think they will put up with it forever.
Oh yes they will!!!!!! Everyone wants to pay less and, given the terrible state of the US economy, no one is going to pay a penny more.

stepwilk had it correct:
Nah. They'll continue to buy $99 tickets to LA and complain.
Which what folks in the UK do and, I have no doubt, other Europeans too.

sevenstrokeroll
Deregulate the airlines, fares that allow for a 5 to 10 percent profit for the airlines and investors.
costs in line with current fuel prices.
etc. ..
Interesting, you want a Communist style ideology to protect you? Yes, it is going to be horrible in the next few years - and not just in the US - but human beings have universally declared that, as individuals, they want to make as much money as possible and spend as little money as possible. 2008 is the place where those demands will crash head on.
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Old 4th Apr 2008, 12:10
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Nah. They'll continue to buy $99 tickets to LA and complain.
Which what folks in the UK do and, I have no doubt, other Europeans too.
PAXboy,
LCC's don't have low fares because they just happen to be an LCC. They sell their seats for the optimum price in order to maximize profit. FR is able to operate very thin routes because they can be profitable with relatively low yields. This might change with higher operating costs and hence: higher fares = capacity reduction.
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Old 4th Apr 2008, 12:43
  #39 (permalink)  
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The financial input and different approach to management and problem solving from Europeans might just be what these US airlines need right now.
No argument here....
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Old 4th Apr 2008, 12:44
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US vs. EU LOCO

Am not much in the know about the US domestic/regional vs. EU market. But what is it that seems to have caused so many problems for the locos there. I hear of less EU ones going to the wall than US. Is this just due to the higher number of such operators, oversupply, problems with underlying costs or is it management pure and simple? Despite the slowdown in Europe, no big names have headed down the pan yet (possibly just a question of time), and in fact some are still growing at a fair pace? Just curious.
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