Virgin/BMI merger
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VS are in a difficult positon now. They can't cut capacity- they only serve many of their markets once daily so they can't cut back - or business cusotmers (like me) will stop using them. They have to fill their current capacity. Trouble is evident cuts in service mean the have less and less differentiation so they are likely to lose existing customers and will find it difficult to gain news ones. The Virgin will have to marry IMHO.
On a lighter side re the earlier post on name
British Virgin anyone?
On a lighter side re the earlier post on name
British Virgin anyone?
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Along the lines of the Delta/Northwest merger I would think the name would probably be...
Virgin Atlantic
maybe with a Virgin Europe or Virgin UK
What is to stop LH taking SQ's 49% of VS and then VS (financed from Dubai) buying LH's stake in BD after they have bought out SMB.
SQ are known to want to unload their VS stake and I'm sure LH would love to own 49 per cent of BA's main competition.
VS for Star Alliance should it all happen?
Virgin Atlantic
maybe with a Virgin Europe or Virgin UK
What is to stop LH taking SQ's 49% of VS and then VS (financed from Dubai) buying LH's stake in BD after they have bought out SMB.
SQ are known to want to unload their VS stake and I'm sure LH would love to own 49 per cent of BA's main competition.
VS for Star Alliance should it all happen?
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What is to stop LH taking SQ's 49% of VS and then VS (financed from Dubai) buying LH's stake in BD after they have bought out SMB.
As for the pilot seniority thing, unlike the pitched battles seen in recent (and ongoing) US airlines' mergers, bmi's absorbtion of BMED showed that these things can be achieved amicably and efficiently if sufficient thought is put into it. At any rate, it's not likely to be a stopper!
Anyway, we've been here so many times before (bmi/Virgin) that all the arguments for and against have been heard several times. SRB wants it to happen, SMB doesn't.They don't see eye to eye on anything much. It'll take third-party influence to get past the historical barriers to a combining of the two. LH may be the deciding factor, but equally it may not. We'll just have to wait and see.
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I agree with the post above. It really is in the hands of zee germans as to wither BD and VS merge or not.
Effectively LH can take control of BD anyway, with or without the SK stake. LH can then take 49% of VS from SQ wither SRB and/or SRB like it or not. I dont know if LH are going to do this or want to do it but the reality si that nothing is going to happen without the agreement of LH, it is the only one I can see who can get the keys to the Hall without physically killing off SMB having altered his will!
Just the way I see it. Personally I think BD and VS could be good together, I dont know that both brands would have to disappear in the medium term though. VS is stuck in T3 for the foreseeable future and BD is in *A heaven at T1, if they do merge I think it might be more of a back room thing, and of course VS would join star, sponsored by BD and seconded by LH.
Brian.
Effectively LH can take control of BD anyway, with or without the SK stake. LH can then take 49% of VS from SQ wither SRB and/or SRB like it or not. I dont know if LH are going to do this or want to do it but the reality si that nothing is going to happen without the agreement of LH, it is the only one I can see who can get the keys to the Hall without physically killing off SMB having altered his will!
Just the way I see it. Personally I think BD and VS could be good together, I dont know that both brands would have to disappear in the medium term though. VS is stuck in T3 for the foreseeable future and BD is in *A heaven at T1, if they do merge I think it might be more of a back room thing, and of course VS would join star, sponsored by BD and seconded by LH.
Brian.
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CAPTJ
Good point didn't the glazers buy Man utd without putting much of their own cash in?? sorry this is not aviation linked but I thought it suited the discussion
Good point didn't the glazers buy Man utd without putting much of their own cash in?? sorry this is not aviation linked but I thought it suited the discussion
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If LH owned 49 per cent of VS and 50+ per cent of BD (It could happen) then the Germans could surely push through a merger.
VS...49 per cent owner by LH buys LH stake in BD (using Dubai capital?) and all the pretty blue planes get lovely new red tails.
VS...49 per cent owner by LH buys LH stake in BD (using Dubai capital?) and all the pretty blue planes get lovely new red tails.
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There's no doubt that Sir Dickie has or can raise more cash than SMB based on his assets alone. Branson is infinitely more wealthy than Bishop. That's not to take away from Sir Michael his success in British avaition and after all he's been around much longer than Branson.
All this bmi buying Virgin talk is just wishful thinking. Times are getting tough for both bmi and Virgin and consolidation in todays aviation world is top of the agenda. LH have a call option coming up which they will almost certainly exercise, what happens from there is conjecture but the above senarios seem very plausable. BA will not put up without a fight and will have set financing aside to do so. Interesting times ahead.
As far as pilot seniority in a Virgin merger is concerned, it isn't that complicated. You can be assured though that a 17,000 hr bmi Captain flying the A330 won't end up as an F/O on an A340 with Virgin. The real world will dictate and 'needs must' as they say. The bmi/BMED situation is the method BALPA will follow and I'm told it's closest to current employment legislation.
All this bmi buying Virgin talk is just wishful thinking. Times are getting tough for both bmi and Virgin and consolidation in todays aviation world is top of the agenda. LH have a call option coming up which they will almost certainly exercise, what happens from there is conjecture but the above senarios seem very plausable. BA will not put up without a fight and will have set financing aside to do so. Interesting times ahead.
As far as pilot seniority in a Virgin merger is concerned, it isn't that complicated. You can be assured though that a 17,000 hr bmi Captain flying the A330 won't end up as an F/O on an A340 with Virgin. The real world will dictate and 'needs must' as they say. The bmi/BMED situation is the method BALPA will follow and I'm told it's closest to current employment legislation.
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The T&C's on the put/call options on both parties are not in the public domain, i would doubt very much that SMB has put (no pun) himself in a position where has no say or choice in the future of bmi to the benifit of LH, indeed all the pain that the group has gone thro over the last 5 years has been done on the knowledge that the ECA ends soon. If he had no say in the outcome why bother?
One thing is certain, that the people who have said that SMB/BMI is over cautious will have egg on their face around now, can you say now would have been a good time to have gone longhaul to the states out of LHR? or that an order for 20+ aircraft (at the top of the price cycle) for baby would look clever, no i don't think so, plus with oil price the midhaul plan to (many) oil producing states looks spot on to me, aircraft ordered in the winter of 08 will be better value than any ordered in 2007 all the more so if you have bought dollars this year.
One thing is certain, that the people who have said that SMB/BMI is over cautious will have egg on their face around now, can you say now would have been a good time to have gone longhaul to the states out of LHR? or that an order for 20+ aircraft (at the top of the price cycle) for baby would look clever, no i don't think so, plus with oil price the midhaul plan to (many) oil producing states looks spot on to me, aircraft ordered in the winter of 08 will be better value than any ordered in 2007 all the more so if you have bought dollars this year.
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It's all speculation...but isn't it fun!
Seriously, I can't see BMI being part of an merged brand.
Virgin is a global brand, BMI is an already diluted British product.
LH would want to capitalise on the VS brand power if they were to push through a merger.
As much as they might be loved in here, a merger would see the British Midland name lost forever, just like the mighty Pan Am, Eastern, TWA, and (soon) Northwest.
Seriously, I can't see BMI being part of an merged brand.
Virgin is a global brand, BMI is an already diluted British product.
LH would want to capitalise on the VS brand power if they were to push through a merger.
As much as they might be loved in here, a merger would see the British Midland name lost forever, just like the mighty Pan Am, Eastern, TWA, and (soon) Northwest.